The macroeconomic impact of ocean economy financing in South Africa
- Authors: Matekenya, Weliswa
- Date: 2022-12
- Subjects: Macroeconomics , Maritime –- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Doctoral's theses , Thesis
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/60305 , vital:64343
- Description: The global ocean is responsible for providing seafood and employment to the world’s population and is the key driver of global gross domestic product. The ocean economy (blue economy) has been identified as key to unlocking the growth potential of many economies. It is in this context that both the South African government and the private sector have invested in the ocean economy with the purpose of sustaining it and making it more productive. To this end, the government established the Operation Phakisa programme which is meant to fast-track ocean economy development. In line with operation Phakisa imperatives, the South African government began a series of budget allocations towards the various sectors of the oceans economy. This flow of public funds towards oceans economy sectors was with a view to reduce unemployment, grow the economy, increase trade as well as boost entrepreneurship. It is for this reason that the financing of the ocean economy needs to be assessed in terms of its role in ensuring sustainable economic growth through ocean economy activities. While the ocean economy is becoming a new focal point in the discourse on growth and sustainable development both globally and locally, it remains faced with a series of challenges in South Africa. These include inadequate economic incentives, outdated infrastructure, ineffective governance institutions, lack of technological advances, and insufficient management tools. All of these have led to unregulated competition among users, albeit in the context of extensive opportunities offered by the rising demand for seafood. The specific focus of the study is the macroeconomic impact of ocean economy financing in South Africa during the 1994 to 2019 period. The study employed ARDL to test long and short-run relationships. The results show that ocean economy financing in South Africa during this time to have had a positive effect on economic growth, and a negative relationship on unemployment, although the latter is statically insignificant, while ocean economy financing has a negative relationship with entrepreneurship, to have a positive relationship with total trade, and statistically significant. Based on the findings of the study recommendations are made for the South African government to continue investing in oceans economy marine infrastructure and to address any constraints that hinder the growth and sustainability of the country’s ocean economy. In order to ensure the economic viability of ocean ii economy financing four areas need attention, namely economic growth, entrepreneurship, job creation, and total trade. This study recommends that in order to grow the South African economy, a comprehensive growth strategy that looks beyond ocean economy should be adopted. Regarding entrepreneurship ease of doing business should be improved and all factors inhibiting entrepreneurship should be addressed. The requisite skills through human capital investment should be harnessed and decent and sustainable jobs in the ocean sector should be created. It is a well-known fact that an aggressive drive towards economic growth is not without negative externalities e.g pollutions, unreported, unregulated, and over-exploitation of ocean resources. Ocean governance is vital in preventing such negative externalities. The results of the study show that ocean governance boosts trade and reduces unemployment. , Thesis (PHD) -- Faculty of Business and Economic Sciences, 2022
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2022-12
- Authors: Matekenya, Weliswa
- Date: 2022-12
- Subjects: Macroeconomics , Maritime –- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Doctoral's theses , Thesis
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/60305 , vital:64343
- Description: The global ocean is responsible for providing seafood and employment to the world’s population and is the key driver of global gross domestic product. The ocean economy (blue economy) has been identified as key to unlocking the growth potential of many economies. It is in this context that both the South African government and the private sector have invested in the ocean economy with the purpose of sustaining it and making it more productive. To this end, the government established the Operation Phakisa programme which is meant to fast-track ocean economy development. In line with operation Phakisa imperatives, the South African government began a series of budget allocations towards the various sectors of the oceans economy. This flow of public funds towards oceans economy sectors was with a view to reduce unemployment, grow the economy, increase trade as well as boost entrepreneurship. It is for this reason that the financing of the ocean economy needs to be assessed in terms of its role in ensuring sustainable economic growth through ocean economy activities. While the ocean economy is becoming a new focal point in the discourse on growth and sustainable development both globally and locally, it remains faced with a series of challenges in South Africa. These include inadequate economic incentives, outdated infrastructure, ineffective governance institutions, lack of technological advances, and insufficient management tools. All of these have led to unregulated competition among users, albeit in the context of extensive opportunities offered by the rising demand for seafood. The specific focus of the study is the macroeconomic impact of ocean economy financing in South Africa during the 1994 to 2019 period. The study employed ARDL to test long and short-run relationships. The results show that ocean economy financing in South Africa during this time to have had a positive effect on economic growth, and a negative relationship on unemployment, although the latter is statically insignificant, while ocean economy financing has a negative relationship with entrepreneurship, to have a positive relationship with total trade, and statistically significant. Based on the findings of the study recommendations are made for the South African government to continue investing in oceans economy marine infrastructure and to address any constraints that hinder the growth and sustainability of the country’s ocean economy. In order to ensure the economic viability of ocean ii economy financing four areas need attention, namely economic growth, entrepreneurship, job creation, and total trade. This study recommends that in order to grow the South African economy, a comprehensive growth strategy that looks beyond ocean economy should be adopted. Regarding entrepreneurship ease of doing business should be improved and all factors inhibiting entrepreneurship should be addressed. The requisite skills through human capital investment should be harnessed and decent and sustainable jobs in the ocean sector should be created. It is a well-known fact that an aggressive drive towards economic growth is not without negative externalities e.g pollutions, unreported, unregulated, and over-exploitation of ocean resources. Ocean governance is vital in preventing such negative externalities. The results of the study show that ocean governance boosts trade and reduces unemployment. , Thesis (PHD) -- Faculty of Business and Economic Sciences, 2022
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2022-12
Export diversification, export specialization and economic growth in G20 countries
- Authors: Siswana, Sinesipho
- Date: 2021-04
- Subjects: International economic relations , Macroeconomics , Economics
- Language: English
- Type: Master's theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/52621 , vital:43693
- Description: This study sought out to empirically investigate whether it is export diversification or export concentration that would help achieve and sustain higher economic growth in the G20 countries using data over the period of 1995 to 2017. The empirical analysis uses the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model within a Pooled Mean Group (PMG) to evaluate the existence of a long run cointegration and as a baseline for examining whether the relationship between export diversification (concentration) and growth is nonlinear through a Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model. The ARDL model confirms that the is a long run cointegration between the variables where both export diversification and concentration have a positive impact on growth. On the other hand, the NARDL model confirms that the relationship between export diversification and growth in the G20 countries is a nonlinear where a positive change in diversification has a negative effect on growth, while negative changes have a positive effect, thus, diversification has a negative effect on growth. The NARDL results for concentration do not confirm any nonlinearities, this implies that both positive and negative changes in concentration have negative and statistically insignificant effects on growth. Both the panel ARDL and panel NARDL model are superior models that can account and correct any serial autocorrelation that may exist, thus making the results robust enough. Seemingly, that both export diversification and concentration have a negative effect on growth and this effect may be attributed to the sample being a mixture of developed and developing economies, the study further analysed the effect on to sub-samples (G7 and non-G7). The results for the G7 panel show that there is no evidence of a nonlinear relationship between growth and concentration, as a positive change has a positive effect and a negative change has a negative effect. Overall, the G7 NARDL results are show that concentration will accelerate growth in developed economies in the long run more than diversification. The results for the non-G7 panel the NARDL results show that there is a linear relationship between export diversification (concentration) and growth. The overall, results of the study suggest, that for the G20 countries developmental levels need to be considered in order to know the correct export composition strategy to adopt in order to accelerate growth. With that said, in developed countries like the G7 export concentration would be beneficial in accelerating growth, while in developing countries like the non-G7 countries export diversification would accelerate growth. , Thesis (MCom) -- Faculty of Business and Economic Sciences , Economics, 2021
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2021-04
- Authors: Siswana, Sinesipho
- Date: 2021-04
- Subjects: International economic relations , Macroeconomics , Economics
- Language: English
- Type: Master's theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/52621 , vital:43693
- Description: This study sought out to empirically investigate whether it is export diversification or export concentration that would help achieve and sustain higher economic growth in the G20 countries using data over the period of 1995 to 2017. The empirical analysis uses the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model within a Pooled Mean Group (PMG) to evaluate the existence of a long run cointegration and as a baseline for examining whether the relationship between export diversification (concentration) and growth is nonlinear through a Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model. The ARDL model confirms that the is a long run cointegration between the variables where both export diversification and concentration have a positive impact on growth. On the other hand, the NARDL model confirms that the relationship between export diversification and growth in the G20 countries is a nonlinear where a positive change in diversification has a negative effect on growth, while negative changes have a positive effect, thus, diversification has a negative effect on growth. The NARDL results for concentration do not confirm any nonlinearities, this implies that both positive and negative changes in concentration have negative and statistically insignificant effects on growth. Both the panel ARDL and panel NARDL model are superior models that can account and correct any serial autocorrelation that may exist, thus making the results robust enough. Seemingly, that both export diversification and concentration have a negative effect on growth and this effect may be attributed to the sample being a mixture of developed and developing economies, the study further analysed the effect on to sub-samples (G7 and non-G7). The results for the G7 panel show that there is no evidence of a nonlinear relationship between growth and concentration, as a positive change has a positive effect and a negative change has a negative effect. Overall, the G7 NARDL results are show that concentration will accelerate growth in developed economies in the long run more than diversification. The results for the non-G7 panel the NARDL results show that there is a linear relationship between export diversification (concentration) and growth. The overall, results of the study suggest, that for the G20 countries developmental levels need to be considered in order to know the correct export composition strategy to adopt in order to accelerate growth. With that said, in developed countries like the G7 export concentration would be beneficial in accelerating growth, while in developing countries like the non-G7 countries export diversification would accelerate growth. , Thesis (MCom) -- Faculty of Business and Economic Sciences , Economics, 2021
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2021-04
The impact of external shocks on economic performance and policy responses in Zimbabwe
- Authors: Manda, Smart
- Date: 2017
- Subjects: Macroeconomics , Economic forecasting -- Zimbabwe Economic development -- Zimbabwe Zimbabwe -- Economic conditions -- 21st century Developing countries -- Economic conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , DPhil
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/18354 , vital:28626
- Description: This study analysed the impact of external shocks on macroeconomic performance and policy responses in Zimbabwe for the period spanning from 2009 to 2016. The study was motivated by the rising global economic vulnerabilities following the global economic and financial crisis experienced between 2007 and 2009. The study was also in response to the concern by the Zimbabwean government that external shocks had become increasingly important in influencing macroeconomic developments in Zimbabwe. In view of the intensifying debate on external shocks, the study, therefore, sought to understand the impact of external shocks on economic performance and policy responses in Zimbabwe. The study contributes to empirical literature by assessing the relative contribution of external shocks in explaining business cycles, the main transmission mechanisms of the macroeconomic shocks in Zimbabwe, the extent to which shocks in Zimbabwe were synchronised with shocks affecting other regional countries and how effective were government policies in mitigating the impact of shocks in Zimbabwe. Zimbabwe is a fascinating case study given its unique exchange rate arrangements under the multiple currency system. The application of the micro-founded DSGE models in addition to the Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) models is also a novel approach. The results of the DSGE model demonstrated that foreign output shocks and imported inflation were not important in accounting for developments in endogenous variables in Zimbabwe. In addition, the domestic output and inflation did not respond to a domestic monetary policy shock. However, the international commodity price was found to have some bearing on domestic output. Foreign interest rates had a positive effect on domestic interest rates. On the other hand, domestic variables did not respond to domestic interest rate movements. This effectively implies that whilst foreign interest rates influenced domestic interest rates, domestic interest rates did not influence real economic activity. In other words, the transmission mechanism was not from domestic monetary policy to real economic variables. The results of the SVAR model also confirmed the results obtained from the DSGE model. The results from the analysis of the synchronicity of shocks also provided very important information on the dynamics of external shocks and economic performance in Zimbabwe. These results pointed to the fact that although countries in the region experienced similar shocks, economic fluctuations were not synchronised implying that the shocks could be emanating from the domestic sources rather than external sources. The results from the analysis of the role of external shocks in explaining macroeconomic fluctuations in Zimbabwe revealed that domestic factors contribute more to macroeconomic fluctuations in Zimbabwe compared to external variables. The contribution of climatic factors to domestic output fluctuations was, however, found to have a limited or minimal impact on the economy. Regarding the monetary policy effectiveness, the study observed that there was a weak link between interest rates and output and inflation developments in Zimbabwe. The results also suggested a week link between interest rates and money supply in the economy. The results, however, suggested that international oil prices were very important in the domestic price formations, accounting for about 20 percent of the variation. The monetary policy conditional index on the other hand indicated that monetary conditions in the economy did not influence inflation and output developments, implying ineffectiveness of monetary policy. The results from the study demonstrated the fact that although external shocks do affect economic activity in Zimbabwe, domestic factors are more significant in influencing macroeconomic activity. The policy implication of the findings is that there is need to consider the domestic factors, which are more significant compared to the external factors. However, since monetary policy is not effective under the multiple currencies system, fiscal policy is important to deal with external shocks. This will also enable the economy to absorb the impact of external shocks into the economy. The policies should focus more on reducing the over-reliance on primary commodities for exports through diversification of the economy.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2017
- Authors: Manda, Smart
- Date: 2017
- Subjects: Macroeconomics , Economic forecasting -- Zimbabwe Economic development -- Zimbabwe Zimbabwe -- Economic conditions -- 21st century Developing countries -- Economic conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , DPhil
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/18354 , vital:28626
- Description: This study analysed the impact of external shocks on macroeconomic performance and policy responses in Zimbabwe for the period spanning from 2009 to 2016. The study was motivated by the rising global economic vulnerabilities following the global economic and financial crisis experienced between 2007 and 2009. The study was also in response to the concern by the Zimbabwean government that external shocks had become increasingly important in influencing macroeconomic developments in Zimbabwe. In view of the intensifying debate on external shocks, the study, therefore, sought to understand the impact of external shocks on economic performance and policy responses in Zimbabwe. The study contributes to empirical literature by assessing the relative contribution of external shocks in explaining business cycles, the main transmission mechanisms of the macroeconomic shocks in Zimbabwe, the extent to which shocks in Zimbabwe were synchronised with shocks affecting other regional countries and how effective were government policies in mitigating the impact of shocks in Zimbabwe. Zimbabwe is a fascinating case study given its unique exchange rate arrangements under the multiple currency system. The application of the micro-founded DSGE models in addition to the Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) models is also a novel approach. The results of the DSGE model demonstrated that foreign output shocks and imported inflation were not important in accounting for developments in endogenous variables in Zimbabwe. In addition, the domestic output and inflation did not respond to a domestic monetary policy shock. However, the international commodity price was found to have some bearing on domestic output. Foreign interest rates had a positive effect on domestic interest rates. On the other hand, domestic variables did not respond to domestic interest rate movements. This effectively implies that whilst foreign interest rates influenced domestic interest rates, domestic interest rates did not influence real economic activity. In other words, the transmission mechanism was not from domestic monetary policy to real economic variables. The results of the SVAR model also confirmed the results obtained from the DSGE model. The results from the analysis of the synchronicity of shocks also provided very important information on the dynamics of external shocks and economic performance in Zimbabwe. These results pointed to the fact that although countries in the region experienced similar shocks, economic fluctuations were not synchronised implying that the shocks could be emanating from the domestic sources rather than external sources. The results from the analysis of the role of external shocks in explaining macroeconomic fluctuations in Zimbabwe revealed that domestic factors contribute more to macroeconomic fluctuations in Zimbabwe compared to external variables. The contribution of climatic factors to domestic output fluctuations was, however, found to have a limited or minimal impact on the economy. Regarding the monetary policy effectiveness, the study observed that there was a weak link between interest rates and output and inflation developments in Zimbabwe. The results also suggested a week link between interest rates and money supply in the economy. The results, however, suggested that international oil prices were very important in the domestic price formations, accounting for about 20 percent of the variation. The monetary policy conditional index on the other hand indicated that monetary conditions in the economy did not influence inflation and output developments, implying ineffectiveness of monetary policy. The results from the study demonstrated the fact that although external shocks do affect economic activity in Zimbabwe, domestic factors are more significant in influencing macroeconomic activity. The policy implication of the findings is that there is need to consider the domestic factors, which are more significant compared to the external factors. However, since monetary policy is not effective under the multiple currencies system, fiscal policy is important to deal with external shocks. This will also enable the economy to absorb the impact of external shocks into the economy. The policies should focus more on reducing the over-reliance on primary commodities for exports through diversification of the economy.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2017
Macroeconomic theory after the great recession of 2008: the need for a market process approach
- Authors: Le Roux, Pierre
- Subjects: Recessions , Macroeconomics , f-sa
- Language: English
- Type: text , Lectures
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/52919 , vital:44679
- Description: This paper sets out to reflect that contemporary schools of thought are unable to explain the great recession of 2008. The Great Recession 2007-2009 and the long, slow recovery from it serve as reminders of the difficulty of explaining business cycles. Macroeconomists of all varieties have been humbled by these events and by our inability to predict or to design policies that moderate the effects. Paul Krugman (2009) and John Cochrane (2010) are examples of how two schools of thought have struggled with the issue. Many theories of business cycles exist, without any being comprehensive; none are able to account for all important characteristics. Macroeconomic theory continues to explore stylised facts for explanatory power. The whole sub-discipline of “macroeconomics” is premised on the belief that the standard microeconomic tools are not of much use in understanding the dynamics of growth and business cycles. Even with the rational expectations revolution purporting to set macroeconomics back on microfoundations, the language of aggregate supply and demand, over-simplified versions of the Quantity Theory of Money, and the aggregative analytics of the Keynesian cross and simple models of functional finance still fill the textbooks and inform most policy debates. The neglect of capital theory in particular has removed the important elements of time and money from Macroeconomics. The main approaches to Macroeconomics are compared and their lack of a firm micro foundation exposed. The dissatisfaction with macroeconomics can be resolved by taking a more capitalbased approach. This will allow for macro elements such as time and money while reintroducing the entrepreneur into macroeconomic theory. Relative prices, especially intertemporal prices can then again take their rightful place in explaining the business cycle.
- Full Text:
- Authors: Le Roux, Pierre
- Subjects: Recessions , Macroeconomics , f-sa
- Language: English
- Type: text , Lectures
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/52919 , vital:44679
- Description: This paper sets out to reflect that contemporary schools of thought are unable to explain the great recession of 2008. The Great Recession 2007-2009 and the long, slow recovery from it serve as reminders of the difficulty of explaining business cycles. Macroeconomists of all varieties have been humbled by these events and by our inability to predict or to design policies that moderate the effects. Paul Krugman (2009) and John Cochrane (2010) are examples of how two schools of thought have struggled with the issue. Many theories of business cycles exist, without any being comprehensive; none are able to account for all important characteristics. Macroeconomic theory continues to explore stylised facts for explanatory power. The whole sub-discipline of “macroeconomics” is premised on the belief that the standard microeconomic tools are not of much use in understanding the dynamics of growth and business cycles. Even with the rational expectations revolution purporting to set macroeconomics back on microfoundations, the language of aggregate supply and demand, over-simplified versions of the Quantity Theory of Money, and the aggregative analytics of the Keynesian cross and simple models of functional finance still fill the textbooks and inform most policy debates. The neglect of capital theory in particular has removed the important elements of time and money from Macroeconomics. The main approaches to Macroeconomics are compared and their lack of a firm micro foundation exposed. The dissatisfaction with macroeconomics can be resolved by taking a more capitalbased approach. This will allow for macro elements such as time and money while reintroducing the entrepreneur into macroeconomic theory. Relative prices, especially intertemporal prices can then again take their rightful place in explaining the business cycle.
- Full Text:
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