- Title
- Efficient market hypothesis in South Africa: an analysis using the flexible form unit root test
- Creator
- Nomatye, Anelisa
- Subject
- Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa
- Subject
- Stock exchanges -- South Africa Stocks -- South Africa Johannesburg Stock Exchange Economic indicators -- South Africa
- Date Issued
- 2019
- Date
- 2019
- Type
- Thesis
- Type
- Masters
- Type
- MCom
- Identifier
- http://hdl.handle.net/10948/42825
- Identifier
- vital:36697
- Description
- An efficient stock market is characterised by prices that are reflective of all the information such that there are no opportunities for arbitrageurs. In an efficient market, it is impossible to beat the market, therefore it follows that stock prices in an efficient market should follow a random walk. This study investigates whether the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) is an efficient market using the JSE Top 40 listed stocks, thus the relevance of the EMH in the current South African market is analysed. A corerlation analysis is undertaken to find whether the individual stocks in the different sectors are correlated in their returns, or if there are any intersector correlations. This analysis showed that individual sector stocks are mostly correlated, however, the individual sector stocks do not show a relationship with common sectors. The data used is monthly data of the individual stocks from 31 January 1999 to 30 June 2018. The study takes into consideration that the period is post the Asian Contagion and during the dot.com bubble. Also considered is the Global Financial crisis that occurred in 2007/2008. The study period thus allows enough time for market corerction. The study utilises the conventional unit root tests; the augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), Phillips- Perron (PP) and the Kwiatkowski–Phillips–Schmidt–Shin (KPSS) tests. Also utilised are modified unit root tests of Elliot, Rothenburg and Stock (ERS) (1996) as well as Ng and Perron (2001). Due to criticisms of the initially utilised unit roots, the nonlinear test of Kapetanois et al. (2003) and the Flexible Fourier form (FFF) is employed. Based on the empirical analysis, the study demonstrates that although the studies received conflicting evidence the FFF demonstrates the most “power” of the tests, thus is deemed to provide more accurate results. This test provided evidence of stationarity in the JSE market, thus implying inefficiency. The results were different for only two of the forty stocks, namely, Shoprite and Bidvest which implied efficiency. The study thus found that the EMH is not relevant to the current South African market and other theories should be considered in analysing the market. This also provides a case for behavioural finance to be analysed, as the assumption that all investors are rational is questioned.
- Format
- 94 leaves
- Format
- Publisher
- Nelson Mandela University
- Publisher
- Faculty of Business and Economic Sciences
- Language
- English
- Rights
- Nelson Mandela University
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| Thumbnail | File | Description | Size | Format | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| View Details Download | SOURCE1 | 2019_Anelisa Nomatye Masters Research.pdf | 1 MB | Adobe Acrobat PDF | View Details Download |