- Title
- The influence of the real business cycle shocks on aggregate demand in South Africa
- Creator
- Mesatywa, Msa Pumelela
- Subject
- Business cycles -- South Africa
- Subject
- Economic indicators -- South Africa Macroeconomics
- Date Issued
- 2019
- Date
- 2019
- Type
- Thesis
- Type
- Masters
- Type
- MCom
- Identifier
- http://hdl.handle.net/10948/42407
- Identifier
- vital:36653
- Description
- The aim of this study is to investigate the influence of the real business cycle shocks on aggregate demand in South Africa. These shocks consist of government expenditure, oil prices, technology (proxied by research and development), labour productivity, and droughts. The theoretical framework is presented consisting of the literature review and empirical review. The Neo-classical, Keynesian and Structuralist theories are explained in the literature review. Furthermore, the empirical section consists of previous studies from developed and developing countries, and as well as studies conducted in South Africa based on the topic of this study. The Non-Linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model approach was used to find the influence between economic growth, government expenditures, oil prices, technology shock (proxy research and development), labour productivity and droughts in South Africae using quarterly data from 1995 to 2017. The Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter was used to extract the shocks and to test their influence on economic growth. The NARDL technique uses a single reduced form of equation to examine the long run relationship of the variables as opposed to other models. The NARDL technique is also suitable to use to test co-integration and does not require the underlying variables to be integrated of similar order. The results from the NARDL bounds test showed that there is a long run relationship for government expenditure, oil prices, technology, labour productivity and droughts. Furthermore, the labour productivity shock tends out to be the larger shock affecting South Africa’s economy. This study will provide policy recommendations on how to improve and increase labour productivity in South Africa.
- Format
- 115 leaves
- Format
- Publisher
- Nelson Mandela University
- Publisher
- Faculty of Business and Economic Sciences
- Language
- English
- Rights
- Nelson Mandela University
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| Thumbnail | File | Description | Size | Format | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| View Details Download | SOURCE1 | MSA PUMELELA MESATYWA FULL THESIS.pdf | 1 MB | Adobe Acrobat PDF | View Details Download |