Neural network-based prediction techniques for global modeling of M(3000)F2 ionospheric parameter
- Oyeyemi, E O, McKinnell, Lee-Anne, Poole, Allon W V
- Authors: Oyeyemi, E O , McKinnell, Lee-Anne , Poole, Allon W V
- Date: 2007
- Language: English
- Type: text , Article
- Identifier: vital:6803 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1004166
- Description: In recent times neural networks (NNs) have been employed to solve many problems in ionospheric predictions. This paper illustrates a new application of NNs in developing a global model of the ionospheric propagation factor M(3000)F2. NNs were trained with daily hourly values of M(3000)F2 from various ionospheric stations spanning the period 1964–1986 with the following temporal and spatial input parameters: Universal Time, geographic latitude, magnetic inclination, magnetic declination, solar zenith angle, day of the year, A16 index (a 2-day running mean of the 3-h planetary magnetic ap index), R2 index (a 2-month running mean of sunspot number), and the angle of meridian relative to the subsolar point. The performance of the NNs was verified by comparing the predicted values of M(3000)F2 with observed values from a few selected ionospheric stations and the IRI (International Reference Ionosphere) model (CCIR M(3000)F2 model) predicted values. The results obtained compared favourably with the IRI model. Based on the error differences, the result obtained justifies the potential of the NN technique for the predictions of M(3000)F2 values on a global scale.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
- Authors: Oyeyemi, E O , McKinnell, Lee-Anne , Poole, Allon W V
- Date: 2007
- Language: English
- Type: text , Article
- Identifier: vital:6803 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1004166
- Description: In recent times neural networks (NNs) have been employed to solve many problems in ionospheric predictions. This paper illustrates a new application of NNs in developing a global model of the ionospheric propagation factor M(3000)F2. NNs were trained with daily hourly values of M(3000)F2 from various ionospheric stations spanning the period 1964–1986 with the following temporal and spatial input parameters: Universal Time, geographic latitude, magnetic inclination, magnetic declination, solar zenith angle, day of the year, A16 index (a 2-day running mean of the 3-h planetary magnetic ap index), R2 index (a 2-month running mean of sunspot number), and the angle of meridian relative to the subsolar point. The performance of the NNs was verified by comparing the predicted values of M(3000)F2 with observed values from a few selected ionospheric stations and the IRI (International Reference Ionosphere) model (CCIR M(3000)F2 model) predicted values. The results obtained compared favourably with the IRI model. Based on the error differences, the result obtained justifies the potential of the NN technique for the predictions of M(3000)F2 values on a global scale.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
Near-real time foF2 predictions using neural networks
- Oyeyemi, E O, McKinnell, Lee-Anne, Poole, Allon W V
- Authors: Oyeyemi, E O , McKinnell, Lee-Anne , Poole, Allon W V
- Date: 2006
- Language: English
- Type: text , Article
- Identifier: vital:6804 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1004167
- Description: This paper describes the use of the neural network (NN) technique for the development of a near-real time global foF2 (NRTNN) empirical model. The data used are hourly daily values of foF2 from 26 worldwide ionospheric stations (based on availability) during the period 1976–1986 for training the NN and between 1977 and 1989 for verifying the prediction accuracy. The training data set includes all periods of quiet and disturbed geomagnetic conditions. Two categories of input parameters were used as inputs to the NN. The first category consists of geophysical parameters that are temporally or spatially related to the training stations. The second category, which is related to the foF2 itself, consists of three recent past observations of foF2 (i.e. real-time foF2 (F0), 2 h (F−2) and 1 h (F−1) prior to F0) from four control stations (i.e. Boulder (40.0°N, 254.7°E), Grahamstown (33.3°S, 26.5°E), Dourbes (50.1°N, 4.6°E) and Port Stanley (51.7°S, 302.2°E). The performance of the NRTNN was verified under both geomagnetically quiet and disturbed conditions with observed data from a few verification stations. A comparison of the root mean square error (RMSE) differences between measured values and the NRTNN predictions with our earlier standard foF2 NN empirical model is also illustrated. The results reveal that NRTNN will predict foF2 in near-real time with about 1 MHz RMSE difference anywhere on the globe, provided real time data is available at the four control stations. From the results it is also evident that in addition to the geophysical information from any geographical location, recent past observations of foF2 from these control stations could be used as inputs to a NN for near-real time foF2 predictions. Results also reveal that there is a temporal correlation between measured foF2 values at different locations.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2006
- Authors: Oyeyemi, E O , McKinnell, Lee-Anne , Poole, Allon W V
- Date: 2006
- Language: English
- Type: text , Article
- Identifier: vital:6804 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1004167
- Description: This paper describes the use of the neural network (NN) technique for the development of a near-real time global foF2 (NRTNN) empirical model. The data used are hourly daily values of foF2 from 26 worldwide ionospheric stations (based on availability) during the period 1976–1986 for training the NN and between 1977 and 1989 for verifying the prediction accuracy. The training data set includes all periods of quiet and disturbed geomagnetic conditions. Two categories of input parameters were used as inputs to the NN. The first category consists of geophysical parameters that are temporally or spatially related to the training stations. The second category, which is related to the foF2 itself, consists of three recent past observations of foF2 (i.e. real-time foF2 (F0), 2 h (F−2) and 1 h (F−1) prior to F0) from four control stations (i.e. Boulder (40.0°N, 254.7°E), Grahamstown (33.3°S, 26.5°E), Dourbes (50.1°N, 4.6°E) and Port Stanley (51.7°S, 302.2°E). The performance of the NRTNN was verified under both geomagnetically quiet and disturbed conditions with observed data from a few verification stations. A comparison of the root mean square error (RMSE) differences between measured values and the NRTNN predictions with our earlier standard foF2 NN empirical model is also illustrated. The results reveal that NRTNN will predict foF2 in near-real time with about 1 MHz RMSE difference anywhere on the globe, provided real time data is available at the four control stations. From the results it is also evident that in addition to the geophysical information from any geographical location, recent past observations of foF2 from these control stations could be used as inputs to a NN for near-real time foF2 predictions. Results also reveal that there is a temporal correlation between measured foF2 values at different locations.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2006
An analysis of automatically scaled F1 layer data over Grahamstown, South Africa
- Jacobs, Linda, Poole, Allon W V, McKinnell, Lee-Anne
- Authors: Jacobs, Linda , Poole, Allon W V , McKinnell, Lee-Anne
- Date: 2004
- Language: English
- Type: text , Article
- Identifier: vital:6808 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1004194
- Description: This paper describes an analysis of automatically scaled F1 layer data over Grahamstown, South Africa (33.3°S, 26.5°E). An application for real time raytracing through the South African ionosphere was identified, and for this application real time evaluation of the electron density profile is essential. Raw real time virtual height data are provided by a Lowell Digisonde (DPS), which employs the automatic scaling software, ARTIST whose output includes the virtual-to-real height data conversion. Experience has shown that there are times when the raytracing performance is degraded because of difficulties surrounding the real time characterisation of the F1 region by ARTIST. The purpose of this investigation is to establish the extent of the problem, the times and conditions under which it occurs, with a view to formulating remedial alternative strategies, such as predictive modelling.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2004
- Authors: Jacobs, Linda , Poole, Allon W V , McKinnell, Lee-Anne
- Date: 2004
- Language: English
- Type: text , Article
- Identifier: vital:6808 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1004194
- Description: This paper describes an analysis of automatically scaled F1 layer data over Grahamstown, South Africa (33.3°S, 26.5°E). An application for real time raytracing through the South African ionosphere was identified, and for this application real time evaluation of the electron density profile is essential. Raw real time virtual height data are provided by a Lowell Digisonde (DPS), which employs the automatic scaling software, ARTIST whose output includes the virtual-to-real height data conversion. Experience has shown that there are times when the raytracing performance is degraded because of difficulties surrounding the real time characterisation of the F1 region by ARTIST. The purpose of this investigation is to establish the extent of the problem, the times and conditions under which it occurs, with a view to formulating remedial alternative strategies, such as predictive modelling.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2004
Neural network-based ionospheric modelling over the South African region
- McKinnell, Lee-Anne, Poole, Allon W V
- Authors: McKinnell, Lee-Anne , Poole, Allon W V
- Date: 2004
- Language: English
- Type: Article
- Identifier: vital:6795 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1003839
- Description: During the past decade, South African scientists have pioneered research in the field of ionospheric modelling using the technique of neural networks (NNs). Global ionospheric models have always been insufficient for the South African region owing to an historical paucity of available data. Within the past 10 years, however, three new ionospheric sounders have been installed locally and are operating continuously. These sounders are located at Grahamstown (33.3°S, 26.5°E), Louisvale (28.5°S, 21.2°E) and Madimbo (22.4°S, 30.9°E). The addition of a modern sounder at Grahamstown enlarged the ionospheric database for this station to 30 years, making this archive a considerable asset for ionospheric research. Quality control and online availability of the data has also added to its attraction. An important requirement for empirical modelling, but especially for employing NNs, is a large database describing the history of the relationship between the ionosphere and the geophysical parameters that define its behaviour. This review describes the path of South African ionospheric modelling over the past 10 years, the role of NNs in this development, the international collaborations that have arisen from this, and the future of ionospheric modelling in South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2004
- Authors: McKinnell, Lee-Anne , Poole, Allon W V
- Date: 2004
- Language: English
- Type: Article
- Identifier: vital:6795 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1003839
- Description: During the past decade, South African scientists have pioneered research in the field of ionospheric modelling using the technique of neural networks (NNs). Global ionospheric models have always been insufficient for the South African region owing to an historical paucity of available data. Within the past 10 years, however, three new ionospheric sounders have been installed locally and are operating continuously. These sounders are located at Grahamstown (33.3°S, 26.5°E), Louisvale (28.5°S, 21.2°E) and Madimbo (22.4°S, 30.9°E). The addition of a modern sounder at Grahamstown enlarged the ionospheric database for this station to 30 years, making this archive a considerable asset for ionospheric research. Quality control and online availability of the data has also added to its attraction. An important requirement for empirical modelling, but especially for employing NNs, is a large database describing the history of the relationship between the ionosphere and the geophysical parameters that define its behaviour. This review describes the path of South African ionospheric modelling over the past 10 years, the role of NNs in this development, the international collaborations that have arisen from this, and the future of ionospheric modelling in South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2004
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