Financial literacy training in the small, medium and microenterprises sector : effect on business growth in the Eastern Cape, South Africa
- Authors: Akpan, Iniobong Wilson
- Date: 2016
- Subjects: Economics Small business Business enterprises -- Finance
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , DCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10353/13608 , vital:39684
- Description: The centrality of financial literacy to business performance is increasingly becoming established in the literature, with several studies attributing business failures, especially in the small, medium and microenterprises (SMME) sector, to the failure of entrepreneurs to acquire needed levels of formal financial training. This emphasis represents a paradigm shift: small business failures were conventionally blamed on lack of access to capital, infrastructural deficits, lack of markets for SMME goods and services, regulatory constraints, and crime. In South Africa, and elsewhere in the developing world, this new orthodoxy has spurned new policy interventions aimed at improving the financial literacy levels in the SMME sector. Such is the drive to entrench formal literacy provisioning in the SMME sector that some microcredit providers now bundle financial management training into their SMME loan packages. However, there is a dearth of empirical studies that demonstrate, in any conclusive way, the effect of financial literacy training on small business growth and sustainability. The question, therefore, about whether formal financial literacy training actually leads to significant improvements in turnover levels and growth appears to be answered more as advocacy rather than on the basis of empirical evidence. It is against the backdrop of these arguments that the thesis adopted a quasi experimental design to study the business performance of a sample of SMME entrepreneurs who had received financial literacy training (the “treatment group”) at least two years before the study’s commencement and those who had had no financial literacy training at all (the “control group”). The objective was to determine whether any differences in business growth could be attributed to exposure to formal financial management training or the lack thereof. A survey was conducted with 40 respondents from each of the two groups (n = 80). The survey was triangulated with in-depth interviews of a randomly selected sample 10 of SMME operators from each of the two groups. The interviews sought to uncover the entrepreneurs’ narratives regarding the sources and salience of financial literacy in the sector. The study was conducted among SMME operators in Port Elizabeth, East London and Mthatha – the Eastern Cape’s major centres of commerce and industry. Data estimation was conducted using the Difference In Difference (DID) estimation model to determine whether financial literacy training has had any effect on the turnover of training recipients’ businesses (the treatment group) over that of non-training recipients (the control group). Also, the DID coefficient was used as a growth rate indicator to determine whether growth has occurred in training recipients’ businesses over non-training recipients businesses as a result of having received financial literacy training. The Propensity Score Matching (PSM) was used to estimate the average treatment effect (ATE) and the average treatment effect on the treated (ATET). Quantile DID correlations with covariates were also run to reveal the relationship between turnover (a growth variable) and the covariates as possible influencers of firm performance. The key findings of the study were that based on the specific financial variables tested, some basic financial management knowledge existed among members of the two groups of SMME operators, but there was very minimal application of the knowledge in the day-to-day running of the business. Operators utilise both formal financial literacy training and informal knowledge sources in the operation of their businesses. The study also found that in comparison, the difference in turnover between the treatment and control group at follow-up period was significant at a P value of 0.000. This gave rise to an overall DID P value of 0.000 in the estimation. However, the significance was in favour of control group businesses as the business of respondents in the “control group” (with no financial literacy training) performed better than that of respondents in the “treatment group” (who had received financial literacy training). Finally, the study found that financial literacy training had no effect on the growth of businesses in the short term as the growth rate of turnover of the treatment group was lower than that of the control group and the difference between the two rates was significant at a P value of 0.025. Also, compared to itself, the change in turnover levels of the treatment group was not significant in the pre- and post-training periods as revealed by the PSM ATET estimation result. Minimal changes in turnover of the treatment group was not significant at a P value of 0.124. The study concludes from these findings that while financial literacy remains a salient factor in business, scholarship about the real significance of financial literacy training on small business performance in the short term stands on a relatively shaky empirical foundation, especially when viewed against the background that many SMME entrepreneurs also rely on informal knowledge sources to make everyday business decisions. The study thus highlights the imperative of ensuring that knowledge-related interventions in the SMME sector draws on both formal and informal sources of knowledge.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2016
- Authors: Akpan, Iniobong Wilson
- Date: 2016
- Subjects: Economics Small business Business enterprises -- Finance
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , DCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10353/13608 , vital:39684
- Description: The centrality of financial literacy to business performance is increasingly becoming established in the literature, with several studies attributing business failures, especially in the small, medium and microenterprises (SMME) sector, to the failure of entrepreneurs to acquire needed levels of formal financial training. This emphasis represents a paradigm shift: small business failures were conventionally blamed on lack of access to capital, infrastructural deficits, lack of markets for SMME goods and services, regulatory constraints, and crime. In South Africa, and elsewhere in the developing world, this new orthodoxy has spurned new policy interventions aimed at improving the financial literacy levels in the SMME sector. Such is the drive to entrench formal literacy provisioning in the SMME sector that some microcredit providers now bundle financial management training into their SMME loan packages. However, there is a dearth of empirical studies that demonstrate, in any conclusive way, the effect of financial literacy training on small business growth and sustainability. The question, therefore, about whether formal financial literacy training actually leads to significant improvements in turnover levels and growth appears to be answered more as advocacy rather than on the basis of empirical evidence. It is against the backdrop of these arguments that the thesis adopted a quasi experimental design to study the business performance of a sample of SMME entrepreneurs who had received financial literacy training (the “treatment group”) at least two years before the study’s commencement and those who had had no financial literacy training at all (the “control group”). The objective was to determine whether any differences in business growth could be attributed to exposure to formal financial management training or the lack thereof. A survey was conducted with 40 respondents from each of the two groups (n = 80). The survey was triangulated with in-depth interviews of a randomly selected sample 10 of SMME operators from each of the two groups. The interviews sought to uncover the entrepreneurs’ narratives regarding the sources and salience of financial literacy in the sector. The study was conducted among SMME operators in Port Elizabeth, East London and Mthatha – the Eastern Cape’s major centres of commerce and industry. Data estimation was conducted using the Difference In Difference (DID) estimation model to determine whether financial literacy training has had any effect on the turnover of training recipients’ businesses (the treatment group) over that of non-training recipients (the control group). Also, the DID coefficient was used as a growth rate indicator to determine whether growth has occurred in training recipients’ businesses over non-training recipients businesses as a result of having received financial literacy training. The Propensity Score Matching (PSM) was used to estimate the average treatment effect (ATE) and the average treatment effect on the treated (ATET). Quantile DID correlations with covariates were also run to reveal the relationship between turnover (a growth variable) and the covariates as possible influencers of firm performance. The key findings of the study were that based on the specific financial variables tested, some basic financial management knowledge existed among members of the two groups of SMME operators, but there was very minimal application of the knowledge in the day-to-day running of the business. Operators utilise both formal financial literacy training and informal knowledge sources in the operation of their businesses. The study also found that in comparison, the difference in turnover between the treatment and control group at follow-up period was significant at a P value of 0.000. This gave rise to an overall DID P value of 0.000 in the estimation. However, the significance was in favour of control group businesses as the business of respondents in the “control group” (with no financial literacy training) performed better than that of respondents in the “treatment group” (who had received financial literacy training). Finally, the study found that financial literacy training had no effect on the growth of businesses in the short term as the growth rate of turnover of the treatment group was lower than that of the control group and the difference between the two rates was significant at a P value of 0.025. Also, compared to itself, the change in turnover levels of the treatment group was not significant in the pre- and post-training periods as revealed by the PSM ATET estimation result. Minimal changes in turnover of the treatment group was not significant at a P value of 0.124. The study concludes from these findings that while financial literacy remains a salient factor in business, scholarship about the real significance of financial literacy training on small business performance in the short term stands on a relatively shaky empirical foundation, especially when viewed against the background that many SMME entrepreneurs also rely on informal knowledge sources to make everyday business decisions. The study thus highlights the imperative of ensuring that knowledge-related interventions in the SMME sector draws on both formal and informal sources of knowledge.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2016
Local content requirements and the impact on the South African renewable energy sector
- Authors: Ettmayr, Christopher
- Date: 2016
- Subjects: Renewable energy sources -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , DCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/6149 , vital:21043
- Description: Economies aim to expand over time, which always implies the need for increased energy availability in support of this growth. Governments can use their procurement of energy generation to further enhance the benefit to their economies via certain policy tools. One such tool is Local Content Requirements (LCR) where procurement of a good dictates that a certain value has to be sourced locally. The argument for this tool is that spend is localised and manufacturing, as well as job creation, can be stimulated due to industry establishing in the host economy. However, this practice is distortionary in effect and it does not create a fair playing field for global trade. Furthermore, if the local content definition is weak, or open to manipulation, the goals of such a policy may not be achieved at all. This study looked into the local content requirements of South Africa’s Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (REIPPPP) and measured the impact of this policy on the renewable energy sector in general. It was found that, in order to implement a policy such as local content, the host economy had to have certain pre-existing conditions in order to avoid any negative welfare effects. Due to SA not holding all supportive pre-conditions for supporting local content policy, the impact and effect of LCRs has not been optimal and it has not been found to be a sustainable mechanism to continue using into the future indefinitely. The pricing of renewable energy was also found to be higher due to local content and such pricing is passed on to the energy consumer. Therefore, the net welfare impact created for South Africa is diminished in exchange for the creation of jobs and manufacturing, but due to the unsustainability and potential manipulation of the system the country is not maximising the welfare potential from the REIPPPP as it should. It was found that SA renewable energy resources do exist and the logistics infrastructure is strong, providing good potential for investment into renewable energy projects. The demand created by the REIPPPP provided a good market, but there was uncertainty in the long term planning and stability. So, from a market perspective this could be further enhanced. Government had created a sufficient platform for investment, but areas of development such as clusters, R&D and skills training would create a better support environment for LCR policy and strict monitoring of this would also be required to prevent any manipulation. The use of LCRs increases project costs and risk, which is passed onto the energy consumers, but this could be reduced if local goods were more readily available at the right price and at the right quality and quantity. Focus on clusters would once again assist in this regard as independent power producers (IPPs) and engineering procurement and construction (EPC) entities would be able to source components and goods locally in a more cost-effective manner. As the LCRs currently stand in the REIPPPP, it would seem that South Africa is making renewable energy more expensive and although it is argued that this is done for the benefit of creating a new industry and jobs, these are not sustainable and so the current LCR policy will only create short term benefits.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2016
- Authors: Ettmayr, Christopher
- Date: 2016
- Subjects: Renewable energy sources -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , DCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/6149 , vital:21043
- Description: Economies aim to expand over time, which always implies the need for increased energy availability in support of this growth. Governments can use their procurement of energy generation to further enhance the benefit to their economies via certain policy tools. One such tool is Local Content Requirements (LCR) where procurement of a good dictates that a certain value has to be sourced locally. The argument for this tool is that spend is localised and manufacturing, as well as job creation, can be stimulated due to industry establishing in the host economy. However, this practice is distortionary in effect and it does not create a fair playing field for global trade. Furthermore, if the local content definition is weak, or open to manipulation, the goals of such a policy may not be achieved at all. This study looked into the local content requirements of South Africa’s Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (REIPPPP) and measured the impact of this policy on the renewable energy sector in general. It was found that, in order to implement a policy such as local content, the host economy had to have certain pre-existing conditions in order to avoid any negative welfare effects. Due to SA not holding all supportive pre-conditions for supporting local content policy, the impact and effect of LCRs has not been optimal and it has not been found to be a sustainable mechanism to continue using into the future indefinitely. The pricing of renewable energy was also found to be higher due to local content and such pricing is passed on to the energy consumer. Therefore, the net welfare impact created for South Africa is diminished in exchange for the creation of jobs and manufacturing, but due to the unsustainability and potential manipulation of the system the country is not maximising the welfare potential from the REIPPPP as it should. It was found that SA renewable energy resources do exist and the logistics infrastructure is strong, providing good potential for investment into renewable energy projects. The demand created by the REIPPPP provided a good market, but there was uncertainty in the long term planning and stability. So, from a market perspective this could be further enhanced. Government had created a sufficient platform for investment, but areas of development such as clusters, R&D and skills training would create a better support environment for LCR policy and strict monitoring of this would also be required to prevent any manipulation. The use of LCRs increases project costs and risk, which is passed onto the energy consumers, but this could be reduced if local goods were more readily available at the right price and at the right quality and quantity. Focus on clusters would once again assist in this regard as independent power producers (IPPs) and engineering procurement and construction (EPC) entities would be able to source components and goods locally in a more cost-effective manner. As the LCRs currently stand in the REIPPPP, it would seem that South Africa is making renewable energy more expensive and although it is argued that this is done for the benefit of creating a new industry and jobs, these are not sustainable and so the current LCR policy will only create short term benefits.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2016
Risk and portfolio management in microfinace institutional governance in Kampala metropolitan region
- Authors: Kyagulanyi, Ronald
- Date: 2016
- Subjects: Microfinance -- Uganda -- Kampala , Risk management -- Uganda -- Kampala , Portfolio management -- Uganda -- Kampala
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , DCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/8532 , vital:26401
- Description: This study was undertaken to examine the issues relating to risk and loan portfolio management in Microfinance institutions in Uganda. The first objective of this study was to establish the extent of governance in MFIs in Kampala, by looking at the overall management of these institutions, assessing how decision are made, and looking at how they are staffed. The second objective is to establish the variables that best explain management of Micro-Finance Institutions (MFIs). The third objective is to identify the risk management of loan portfolios and lastly to provide recommendations based on the findings. The researcher used explanatory and survey research designs. A minimum sample 114 participants from 50 MFIs was used in data collection and analysis. The researcher employed principle component analysis (PCA) basing on Eigen values to identify variables above mean-scores and the nodes on the scree plot (ordered eigenvalues) denotes the number of variables that best explain the dimensions and conclusion on each variables was drawn basing on mean values of descriptive statistical analysis. Furthermore the orthonormal loadings display of the variables is employed basing on the first principle component that identified the names of variables above the mean score and final variable is drown basing on descriptive statistical analysis using mean scores focusing on those above the mean. The analysis is based on three dimensions of assessments, namely; Governance, Human capital and Risk Management. In general 227 variables were observed from the 3 dimensions, however by employing the PCA the researcher was in position to come up with those that best explain the 3 dimensions and in summary 29 out of 131 variables were identified by the PCA that best describes governance, 17 out of 72 variables were extracted that best explain what is taking in place in human capital whilst 5 out of 24 variables were extracted in relation to risk management. Furthermore conclusions are drawn by employing descriptive statistical analysis basing on mean scores of the variables identified by the PCA. Therefore out of the 29 variables identified by PCA on governance dimension, 19 variables on average have mean scores above 3 signifying good performance in those areas. Therefore the strength of MFIs under governance is seen in the following areas; The MFIs surveyed have strong board that is professionally ethical and knowledgeable in the area of managing financial institutions. They are performing better in the area of decision making, they do make timely decisions, and the board keeps on monitoring management and making sure that strategies agreed upon are properly implemented. The board is well committed in filing tax returns which is a legal requirement to all taxpaying institutions. However 10 variables showed sign of weakness because they have mean scores on average below 3. Management of MFIs need to strengthen its self in the area of allowing individual initiative in decision making, recognition of management committees in place, this smoothen the operations of the institution and lastly the board need to mentor the management, most of the personnel managing these institutions lack skills in managing the entity. On the side of human capital management, 17 variables identified by PCA, basing on their mean scores, 13 have mean scores above 3 showing good performance of MFIs. In this case the strength of MFIs lies in having educated human resources in place; MFIs gave the ability to exploit the available opportunities more especially targeting low income earners that for long have been neglected. However mores is needed under human capital dimension more especially in those areas where on average their mean scores was below 3 such as training programs where the respondents revealed that the type of training obtained does not match with the job requirements therefore they do not benefit from these programs. There is still a lot of bureaucracy within the management that slows the operations of the MFIs. This is further explained by having directors commuting as loan officers. Failure to accept risk exposes the entire institution to a vague of collapse. The last dimension is risk management and in this way, 5 variables were identified by the PCA, and basing on their mean scores, 3 variables showed good progress and that is having performance management system in place, there are limited complaints from the clients about the MFIs services offered and lastly all employees are given access rights to organisation resources, the loan schemes are open to all employees and no discrimination in service delivery, however 2 variables were identified with mean scores below 3 showing weaknesses within the systems. Therefore MFIs have to improve technologies used in their operations; the use of file carbines, off line computers exposes the institution to high degree of risk. There is need to strengthen their distribution channels so that the financial services offered reach out to clients at ease. Specifically the research study identified various risks like systematic risk, operational risk, credit risk, counterparty risk and legal risk in that they do affect the gross loan portfolio in MFIs and policy measures have been recommended to mitigate such risks in financial institutions. These risks can be mitigated by; • Having Internal control systems of checks and balances • Hedging of transactions through advance booking and paying cash in advance. • Diversification of portfolio, through investing in as many assets possible • Continuous reminder of their obligations and making a fall up of clients and as well insuring the loans. • Investors are encouraged to form a network of partners in the business • Continuous engagement of a legal adviser to the institutions. The study contributed to better understanding of risk management in MFIs, that no single variable can be relied upon to explain effective management of risks but however in this study three dimensions play a crucial role in management of risks. The MFI management should focus on having an internal audit function operating independently in that financial controls should be regularly updated to cope with the changing environment. Audit committee of the board should be complete enough to supervise and regulate internal control systems, written policies in the organization should be effectively implemented with clear division of responsibilities of middle to top managers and lastly Segregation of powers and authority need to be strongly emphasized as a way of enhancing proper management of risks in MFIs.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2016
Risk and portfolio management in microfinace institutional governance in Kampala metropolitan region
- Authors: Kyagulanyi, Ronald
- Date: 2016
- Subjects: Microfinance -- Uganda -- Kampala , Risk management -- Uganda -- Kampala , Portfolio management -- Uganda -- Kampala
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , DCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/8532 , vital:26401
- Description: This study was undertaken to examine the issues relating to risk and loan portfolio management in Microfinance institutions in Uganda. The first objective of this study was to establish the extent of governance in MFIs in Kampala, by looking at the overall management of these institutions, assessing how decision are made, and looking at how they are staffed. The second objective is to establish the variables that best explain management of Micro-Finance Institutions (MFIs). The third objective is to identify the risk management of loan portfolios and lastly to provide recommendations based on the findings. The researcher used explanatory and survey research designs. A minimum sample 114 participants from 50 MFIs was used in data collection and analysis. The researcher employed principle component analysis (PCA) basing on Eigen values to identify variables above mean-scores and the nodes on the scree plot (ordered eigenvalues) denotes the number of variables that best explain the dimensions and conclusion on each variables was drawn basing on mean values of descriptive statistical analysis. Furthermore the orthonormal loadings display of the variables is employed basing on the first principle component that identified the names of variables above the mean score and final variable is drown basing on descriptive statistical analysis using mean scores focusing on those above the mean. The analysis is based on three dimensions of assessments, namely; Governance, Human capital and Risk Management. In general 227 variables were observed from the 3 dimensions, however by employing the PCA the researcher was in position to come up with those that best explain the 3 dimensions and in summary 29 out of 131 variables were identified by the PCA that best describes governance, 17 out of 72 variables were extracted that best explain what is taking in place in human capital whilst 5 out of 24 variables were extracted in relation to risk management. Furthermore conclusions are drawn by employing descriptive statistical analysis basing on mean scores of the variables identified by the PCA. Therefore out of the 29 variables identified by PCA on governance dimension, 19 variables on average have mean scores above 3 signifying good performance in those areas. Therefore the strength of MFIs under governance is seen in the following areas; The MFIs surveyed have strong board that is professionally ethical and knowledgeable in the area of managing financial institutions. They are performing better in the area of decision making, they do make timely decisions, and the board keeps on monitoring management and making sure that strategies agreed upon are properly implemented. The board is well committed in filing tax returns which is a legal requirement to all taxpaying institutions. However 10 variables showed sign of weakness because they have mean scores on average below 3. Management of MFIs need to strengthen its self in the area of allowing individual initiative in decision making, recognition of management committees in place, this smoothen the operations of the institution and lastly the board need to mentor the management, most of the personnel managing these institutions lack skills in managing the entity. On the side of human capital management, 17 variables identified by PCA, basing on their mean scores, 13 have mean scores above 3 showing good performance of MFIs. In this case the strength of MFIs lies in having educated human resources in place; MFIs gave the ability to exploit the available opportunities more especially targeting low income earners that for long have been neglected. However mores is needed under human capital dimension more especially in those areas where on average their mean scores was below 3 such as training programs where the respondents revealed that the type of training obtained does not match with the job requirements therefore they do not benefit from these programs. There is still a lot of bureaucracy within the management that slows the operations of the MFIs. This is further explained by having directors commuting as loan officers. Failure to accept risk exposes the entire institution to a vague of collapse. The last dimension is risk management and in this way, 5 variables were identified by the PCA, and basing on their mean scores, 3 variables showed good progress and that is having performance management system in place, there are limited complaints from the clients about the MFIs services offered and lastly all employees are given access rights to organisation resources, the loan schemes are open to all employees and no discrimination in service delivery, however 2 variables were identified with mean scores below 3 showing weaknesses within the systems. Therefore MFIs have to improve technologies used in their operations; the use of file carbines, off line computers exposes the institution to high degree of risk. There is need to strengthen their distribution channels so that the financial services offered reach out to clients at ease. Specifically the research study identified various risks like systematic risk, operational risk, credit risk, counterparty risk and legal risk in that they do affect the gross loan portfolio in MFIs and policy measures have been recommended to mitigate such risks in financial institutions. These risks can be mitigated by; • Having Internal control systems of checks and balances • Hedging of transactions through advance booking and paying cash in advance. • Diversification of portfolio, through investing in as many assets possible • Continuous reminder of their obligations and making a fall up of clients and as well insuring the loans. • Investors are encouraged to form a network of partners in the business • Continuous engagement of a legal adviser to the institutions. The study contributed to better understanding of risk management in MFIs, that no single variable can be relied upon to explain effective management of risks but however in this study three dimensions play a crucial role in management of risks. The MFI management should focus on having an internal audit function operating independently in that financial controls should be regularly updated to cope with the changing environment. Audit committee of the board should be complete enough to supervise and regulate internal control systems, written policies in the organization should be effectively implemented with clear division of responsibilities of middle to top managers and lastly Segregation of powers and authority need to be strongly emphasized as a way of enhancing proper management of risks in MFIs.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2016
The relationship between electricity supply and economic growth in South Africa
- Authors: Khobai, Hlalefang
- Date: 2016
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa , Electric power failures -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , DCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/9251 , vital:26483
- Description: Since democratisation of South Africa in 1994, the economy of South Africa underwent significant structural changes. Among these structural changes was electrification for the poor rural areas. During the apartheid era, about two-thirds of the nation lacked access to electricity and hence, provision for electricity to everyone was considered a crucial part of the economic development, post 1994. Since then economic growth and the demand for electricity in South Africa have been increasing at an unprecedented rate. The electricity supply did not increase proportionally to the increase in the consumption of electricity. In responding to the high increase in the demand for electricity, the electricity utility planned to build new power stations and put back in use the ones which were mothballed. But unfortunately the plan for investment in these power stations was late and in 2008, the existing power stations could not manage to supply enough electricity. The demand for electricity was such that it nearly damaged the power generating circuit and the electricity supply utility had to resort to load shedding. The imbalance between electricity supply and demand led to industrial sectors losing on production and as a result led to a downturn in economic growth. It also led to an increase in electricity prices which had a negative effect on individual and private sectors’ purchasing power. It is against this background that this study is designed to investigate the long term relationship between economic growth and electricity supply. The additional variables such as electricity prices, trade openness, capital and employment were included as intermittent variables to form a multivariate framework. This study also assesses the Granger causality between these variables to determine which variable supersedes the other. Two models were applied in this study: The Auto-regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds approach and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) Granger-causality. The ARDL bounds technique was used to detect the long term relationship between economic growth, electricity supply, electricity prices, trade openness, capital and employment using annual data from 1985 to 2014. The ARDL technique was chosen over the conventional models such as Engle and Granger (1987) and Johansen (1988) for the research for the following reasons: Firstly, the ARDL technique uses a single reduced form of equation to examine the long term relationship of the variables as opposed to the conventional Johansen test that employs a system of equations. Secondly, it is suitable to use for testing co-integration when a small sample data is used. Thirdly, it does not require the underlying variables to be integrated of similar order e.g. integrated of order zero I(0), integrated of order one I(1) or fractionally integrated, for it to be applicable. Lastly, it does not rely on the properties of unit root datasets and this makes it possible for the Granger-causality to be applied in testing the long term relationships between the variables. The VECM Granger-causality is used to examine the Granger-causality between the chosen variables. It was chosen for its ability to develop longer term forecasting when dealing with an unconstrained model. The unit root results confirmed that the variables were stationary at first difference using Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF), Phillips and Perron (PP) and Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shit (KPSS). The ARDL bound approach outcomes revealed that economic growth, electricity supply, trade openness, electricity prices, employment and capital move together in the long term. There were three co-integrated equations under the export and trade models while under the import model there was one co-integrated equation. The results are such that electricity prices have a negative impact on economic growth. The results further evidenced that; electricity supply, trade openness, employment and capital have a positive impact on economic growth in the long term. The VECM Granger causality findings suggested a unidirectional causality flowing from electricity supply, trade, exports, electricity prices, employment and capital to economic growth in the long term. There was another unidirectional causality established flowing from economic growth, trade openness, electricity prices, employment and capital to electricity supply. A one-way causality flowing from economic growth, electricity supply, electricity prices, employment and capital to export was evidenced. Overall, the study’s results of bidirectional Granger-causality between electricity supply and economic growth have a number of implications for forecasters and policy makers. This feedback hypothesis implies that the high level of economic growth leads to a high level of electricity supply, which would stimulate economic growth. Hence, South Africa demonstrates a kind of electricity dependence in a manner that a sufficiently large supply of electricity seems to ensure high economic growth. Electricity supply is a vitally important factor for economic growth in South Africa. It is therefore necessary that South African policy makers formulate investor friendly policies that will encourage, promote and attract capital inflows to stimulate electricity supply. The South African government needs to primarily deregulate the electricity supply industry which is owned by Eskom (a monopoly), and allow more investors into this industry. The government should promote a change to other forms of energy sources such as renewable energy sources which will play an important role in restoring the balance between electricity supply and consumption. Moreover, it is recommended that the electricity regulator should take steps to curb the severe electricity price increases and to ensure prices affordable to the poor communities. The policy makers need to implement some investor friendly policies that will encourage and promote capital formation. Furthermore, the government should invest towards more job creating sectors such as (Small and Medium Enterprises) SMEs. Finally, the government should take into consideration the importance of trade openness to attract international investments into the economy. It is hoped that the findings of this study would prove beneficial to policy makers in South Africa and elsewhere in the world where power outages are experienced, and assist them in combating the problem.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2016
- Authors: Khobai, Hlalefang
- Date: 2016
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa , Electric power failures -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , DCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/9251 , vital:26483
- Description: Since democratisation of South Africa in 1994, the economy of South Africa underwent significant structural changes. Among these structural changes was electrification for the poor rural areas. During the apartheid era, about two-thirds of the nation lacked access to electricity and hence, provision for electricity to everyone was considered a crucial part of the economic development, post 1994. Since then economic growth and the demand for electricity in South Africa have been increasing at an unprecedented rate. The electricity supply did not increase proportionally to the increase in the consumption of electricity. In responding to the high increase in the demand for electricity, the electricity utility planned to build new power stations and put back in use the ones which were mothballed. But unfortunately the plan for investment in these power stations was late and in 2008, the existing power stations could not manage to supply enough electricity. The demand for electricity was such that it nearly damaged the power generating circuit and the electricity supply utility had to resort to load shedding. The imbalance between electricity supply and demand led to industrial sectors losing on production and as a result led to a downturn in economic growth. It also led to an increase in electricity prices which had a negative effect on individual and private sectors’ purchasing power. It is against this background that this study is designed to investigate the long term relationship between economic growth and electricity supply. The additional variables such as electricity prices, trade openness, capital and employment were included as intermittent variables to form a multivariate framework. This study also assesses the Granger causality between these variables to determine which variable supersedes the other. Two models were applied in this study: The Auto-regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds approach and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) Granger-causality. The ARDL bounds technique was used to detect the long term relationship between economic growth, electricity supply, electricity prices, trade openness, capital and employment using annual data from 1985 to 2014. The ARDL technique was chosen over the conventional models such as Engle and Granger (1987) and Johansen (1988) for the research for the following reasons: Firstly, the ARDL technique uses a single reduced form of equation to examine the long term relationship of the variables as opposed to the conventional Johansen test that employs a system of equations. Secondly, it is suitable to use for testing co-integration when a small sample data is used. Thirdly, it does not require the underlying variables to be integrated of similar order e.g. integrated of order zero I(0), integrated of order one I(1) or fractionally integrated, for it to be applicable. Lastly, it does not rely on the properties of unit root datasets and this makes it possible for the Granger-causality to be applied in testing the long term relationships between the variables. The VECM Granger-causality is used to examine the Granger-causality between the chosen variables. It was chosen for its ability to develop longer term forecasting when dealing with an unconstrained model. The unit root results confirmed that the variables were stationary at first difference using Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF), Phillips and Perron (PP) and Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shit (KPSS). The ARDL bound approach outcomes revealed that economic growth, electricity supply, trade openness, electricity prices, employment and capital move together in the long term. There were three co-integrated equations under the export and trade models while under the import model there was one co-integrated equation. The results are such that electricity prices have a negative impact on economic growth. The results further evidenced that; electricity supply, trade openness, employment and capital have a positive impact on economic growth in the long term. The VECM Granger causality findings suggested a unidirectional causality flowing from electricity supply, trade, exports, electricity prices, employment and capital to economic growth in the long term. There was another unidirectional causality established flowing from economic growth, trade openness, electricity prices, employment and capital to electricity supply. A one-way causality flowing from economic growth, electricity supply, electricity prices, employment and capital to export was evidenced. Overall, the study’s results of bidirectional Granger-causality between electricity supply and economic growth have a number of implications for forecasters and policy makers. This feedback hypothesis implies that the high level of economic growth leads to a high level of electricity supply, which would stimulate economic growth. Hence, South Africa demonstrates a kind of electricity dependence in a manner that a sufficiently large supply of electricity seems to ensure high economic growth. Electricity supply is a vitally important factor for economic growth in South Africa. It is therefore necessary that South African policy makers formulate investor friendly policies that will encourage, promote and attract capital inflows to stimulate electricity supply. The South African government needs to primarily deregulate the electricity supply industry which is owned by Eskom (a monopoly), and allow more investors into this industry. The government should promote a change to other forms of energy sources such as renewable energy sources which will play an important role in restoring the balance between electricity supply and consumption. Moreover, it is recommended that the electricity regulator should take steps to curb the severe electricity price increases and to ensure prices affordable to the poor communities. The policy makers need to implement some investor friendly policies that will encourage and promote capital formation. Furthermore, the government should invest towards more job creating sectors such as (Small and Medium Enterprises) SMEs. Finally, the government should take into consideration the importance of trade openness to attract international investments into the economy. It is hoped that the findings of this study would prove beneficial to policy makers in South Africa and elsewhere in the world where power outages are experienced, and assist them in combating the problem.
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- Date Issued: 2016
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