Interest rate liberalisation and economic growth in SADC countries
- Authors: Moyo, Clement Zibusiso
- Date: 2018
- Subjects: Southern African Development Community , Economic development -- Africa, Southern Developing countries -- Economic conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , DPhil
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/22791 , vital:30087
- Description: The pioneers of financial liberalisation, McKinnon (1973) and Shaw (1973) argue that inter-est rates determined by market forces have a positive effect on economic growth rates. Inter-est rates that are kept at low levels through the intervention of a central bank discourage sav-ings and capital accumulation, and distort the allocation of resources. Interest rate liberalisa-tion results in higher real interest rates which could have a positive effect on savings, invest-ments and economic growth (Ang & McKibbin 2007). Interest rate liberalisation also reduces capital flight and encourages capital inflows by increasing return for investors which supple-ments domestic investments. Shaw (1973) argued that interest rate liberalisation promotes financial development by encouraging savings and increasing the availability of funds for lending purposes. The study provides an empirical analysis of the channels through which interest rate liberalisation impacts on economic growth in SADC countries for the period 1990 to 2015. The study is motivated by the concerns on the impact of interest rate liberalisation on eco-nomic growth in the period after the 2008-’09 global financial crisis as well as concerns that interest rate liberalisation increases the likelihood of financial crises. Higher interest rates resulting from interest rate liberalisation may increase the likelihood of financial crises by encouraging risk-taking on the part of banks in an attempt to take advantage of higher returns. Authorities in most countries have reduced interest rates in an attempt to boost aggregate demand, which is expected to speed up the recovery from the crisis. However, the lowering of interest rates may result in a decrease in savings and investments, which are the main drivers of long-term economic growth. Real interest rates below equilibrium may encourage banks to take more risks in their lending practices in order to earn higher returns which may result in an increase in non-performing loans. The influence of interest rates on financial crises has thus received considerable attention since the onset of the 2008-’09 global financial crisis and this thesis contributes to the literature by determining how interest rates impact on economic growth in SADC countries and whether interest rate liberalisation increases the likelihood of financial crises. The study examines the relationship between interest rate liberalisation and economic growth through different channels. These include savings and investments, capital flows and finan-cial development. The study uses the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimator proposed by Pesaran et al (1999) to estimate the effect of interest rate liberalisation on economic growth through the abovementioned channels. The study also examines whether interest rate liberalisation increases the likelihood of financial crises. This is estimated using the logit model, due to the binary nature of the dependent variable. The results provide limited support for the McKinnon and Shaw hypothesis. Interest rate liberalisation has a positive effect on economic growth through higher savings and investments. Interest rate liberalisation has a positive outcome on capital inflows, which indicates that the prospect of earning higher returns encourages foreign investors to invest in the domestic economy. However, capital inflows do not enhance economic growth. This could be due to the low levels of human capital in SADC countries. Interest rate liberalisation boosts financial development through higher savings and invest-ments. However, financial development has a negative effect on economic growth because of the link between financial development and financial crises. The results show that interest rate liberalisation decreases the likelihood of financial crises directly, however, it increases the probability of financial crises indirectly through financial development. This suggests that the major cause of financial crises in the region is the low levels of institutional quality and lack of adequate supervisory frameworks to monitor the functioning of the financial system. Therefore, the results imply that the negative impact of interest rate liberalisation may outweigh the positive effect of higher savings and investments in SADC countries. A number of policy recommendations can be drawn from the study. Liberalisation of interest rates has a positive effect on economic growth through savings and investments. However improving the levels of institutional quality is vital for preventing financial crises. Interest rate liberalisation may not have a direct influence on financial crises, but higher levels of fi-nancial development emanating from higher interest rates increase the likelihood of financial crises. Therefore, a sound monitoring framework is necessary for the benefits of financial liberalisation to be realised. Also, investment in education, training and research and development is a necessity so as to increase levels of human capital, which in turn may allow the region to reap the benefits of capital inflows.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2018
- Authors: Moyo, Clement Zibusiso
- Date: 2018
- Subjects: Southern African Development Community , Economic development -- Africa, Southern Developing countries -- Economic conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , DPhil
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/22791 , vital:30087
- Description: The pioneers of financial liberalisation, McKinnon (1973) and Shaw (1973) argue that inter-est rates determined by market forces have a positive effect on economic growth rates. Inter-est rates that are kept at low levels through the intervention of a central bank discourage sav-ings and capital accumulation, and distort the allocation of resources. Interest rate liberalisa-tion results in higher real interest rates which could have a positive effect on savings, invest-ments and economic growth (Ang & McKibbin 2007). Interest rate liberalisation also reduces capital flight and encourages capital inflows by increasing return for investors which supple-ments domestic investments. Shaw (1973) argued that interest rate liberalisation promotes financial development by encouraging savings and increasing the availability of funds for lending purposes. The study provides an empirical analysis of the channels through which interest rate liberalisation impacts on economic growth in SADC countries for the period 1990 to 2015. The study is motivated by the concerns on the impact of interest rate liberalisation on eco-nomic growth in the period after the 2008-’09 global financial crisis as well as concerns that interest rate liberalisation increases the likelihood of financial crises. Higher interest rates resulting from interest rate liberalisation may increase the likelihood of financial crises by encouraging risk-taking on the part of banks in an attempt to take advantage of higher returns. Authorities in most countries have reduced interest rates in an attempt to boost aggregate demand, which is expected to speed up the recovery from the crisis. However, the lowering of interest rates may result in a decrease in savings and investments, which are the main drivers of long-term economic growth. Real interest rates below equilibrium may encourage banks to take more risks in their lending practices in order to earn higher returns which may result in an increase in non-performing loans. The influence of interest rates on financial crises has thus received considerable attention since the onset of the 2008-’09 global financial crisis and this thesis contributes to the literature by determining how interest rates impact on economic growth in SADC countries and whether interest rate liberalisation increases the likelihood of financial crises. The study examines the relationship between interest rate liberalisation and economic growth through different channels. These include savings and investments, capital flows and finan-cial development. The study uses the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimator proposed by Pesaran et al (1999) to estimate the effect of interest rate liberalisation on economic growth through the abovementioned channels. The study also examines whether interest rate liberalisation increases the likelihood of financial crises. This is estimated using the logit model, due to the binary nature of the dependent variable. The results provide limited support for the McKinnon and Shaw hypothesis. Interest rate liberalisation has a positive effect on economic growth through higher savings and investments. Interest rate liberalisation has a positive outcome on capital inflows, which indicates that the prospect of earning higher returns encourages foreign investors to invest in the domestic economy. However, capital inflows do not enhance economic growth. This could be due to the low levels of human capital in SADC countries. Interest rate liberalisation boosts financial development through higher savings and invest-ments. However, financial development has a negative effect on economic growth because of the link between financial development and financial crises. The results show that interest rate liberalisation decreases the likelihood of financial crises directly, however, it increases the probability of financial crises indirectly through financial development. This suggests that the major cause of financial crises in the region is the low levels of institutional quality and lack of adequate supervisory frameworks to monitor the functioning of the financial system. Therefore, the results imply that the negative impact of interest rate liberalisation may outweigh the positive effect of higher savings and investments in SADC countries. A number of policy recommendations can be drawn from the study. Liberalisation of interest rates has a positive effect on economic growth through savings and investments. However improving the levels of institutional quality is vital for preventing financial crises. Interest rate liberalisation may not have a direct influence on financial crises, but higher levels of fi-nancial development emanating from higher interest rates increase the likelihood of financial crises. Therefore, a sound monitoring framework is necessary for the benefits of financial liberalisation to be realised. Also, investment in education, training and research and development is a necessity so as to increase levels of human capital, which in turn may allow the region to reap the benefits of capital inflows.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2018
Regional value chains and development integration in the SADC Region: the case of the pharmaceutical industry
- Authors: Faydherbe, Sean
- Date: 2018
- Subjects: Pharmaceutical industry -- Africa, Southern , Southern African Development Community , Africa, Southern -- Economic integration , Regional value chains (RVCs) , Global value chains (GVCs)
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/62906 , vital:28309
- Description: This thesis investigates how regional value chains (RVCs) can be used to further development integration in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region with a focus on the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry. The study is motivated by the apparent lack of attention given to the development of the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry in Southern Africa, the region’s high disease burden and the identification of the industry as economically and socially important by the SADC (2015) Industrialisation Strategy and Roadmap and the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) (2017a) Industrial Policy Action Plan (IPAP). At the same time, South Africa and other countries in the region are exploring alternative approaches to regional integration, given the failure or stagnation of numerous formal integration arrangements throughout Africa, which have often lead to polarised rather than balanced development. This thesis argues that the development of RVCs within SADC may be an effective tool for development integration in the region, particularly in sectors such as pharmaceuticals. The study employs a value chain framework for the analysis and discusses development integration options, drawing on the East Asian experience with RVCs and on case studies involving India in the case of the pharmaceutical industry. It provides a sector profile of the industry in South Africa, due to its dominant status in the region, and also of Zimbabwe, due to that country’s potential to become a pharmaceutical industry leader in the region once again. The thesis first explores the important theoretical aspects underlying value chain analysis, namely governance and upgrading, while also outlining the rise of global value chains (GVCs). It analyses the complex relationships between RVCs and GVCs, and RVCs and regional integration. From this it concludes that RVCs are a stepping stone to participation in GVCs and that RVCs should be promoted within a development integration framework through strong regional cooperation. Value chain analysis is applied to the entire pharmaceutical manufacturing industry with a focus on SADC. The thesis examines how the sector is evolving with manufacturing multinational corporations (MNCs) outsourcing production and setting up centres of excellence in regional production hubs. The study argues that with the application of recommended policies, RVCs in sectors such as pharmaceutical manufacturing may provide a tool for achieving balanced development in the region. However, the study also finds that the pharmaceutical industry in SADC lags a long way behind the rest of the world and that many countries and firms will need to begin at the bottom of the value chain, with formulation, in order to contribute to the development of RVCs. The thesis concludes with recommendations on what policies are needed to foster the growth and development of pharmaceutical RVCs in the SADC region. These include strengthening public procurement, providing incentives for investment into the industry, incremental production and incremental export volumes, as well as certainty and predictability around the regulatory and business environment. Further, policy should aim to construct synergies and linkages on the ground between health systems and industrial developments; regulate service links important to pharmaceutical manufacturing; develop a coherent regional policy agenda; remove unnecessary non-tariff barriers to trade in the region and, in line with development integration, implement trade policy along with trade infrastructure that is efficient and includes airports, rail, roads and ports, as well as effective access to the internet.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2018
- Authors: Faydherbe, Sean
- Date: 2018
- Subjects: Pharmaceutical industry -- Africa, Southern , Southern African Development Community , Africa, Southern -- Economic integration , Regional value chains (RVCs) , Global value chains (GVCs)
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/62906 , vital:28309
- Description: This thesis investigates how regional value chains (RVCs) can be used to further development integration in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region with a focus on the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry. The study is motivated by the apparent lack of attention given to the development of the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry in Southern Africa, the region’s high disease burden and the identification of the industry as economically and socially important by the SADC (2015) Industrialisation Strategy and Roadmap and the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) (2017a) Industrial Policy Action Plan (IPAP). At the same time, South Africa and other countries in the region are exploring alternative approaches to regional integration, given the failure or stagnation of numerous formal integration arrangements throughout Africa, which have often lead to polarised rather than balanced development. This thesis argues that the development of RVCs within SADC may be an effective tool for development integration in the region, particularly in sectors such as pharmaceuticals. The study employs a value chain framework for the analysis and discusses development integration options, drawing on the East Asian experience with RVCs and on case studies involving India in the case of the pharmaceutical industry. It provides a sector profile of the industry in South Africa, due to its dominant status in the region, and also of Zimbabwe, due to that country’s potential to become a pharmaceutical industry leader in the region once again. The thesis first explores the important theoretical aspects underlying value chain analysis, namely governance and upgrading, while also outlining the rise of global value chains (GVCs). It analyses the complex relationships between RVCs and GVCs, and RVCs and regional integration. From this it concludes that RVCs are a stepping stone to participation in GVCs and that RVCs should be promoted within a development integration framework through strong regional cooperation. Value chain analysis is applied to the entire pharmaceutical manufacturing industry with a focus on SADC. The thesis examines how the sector is evolving with manufacturing multinational corporations (MNCs) outsourcing production and setting up centres of excellence in regional production hubs. The study argues that with the application of recommended policies, RVCs in sectors such as pharmaceutical manufacturing may provide a tool for achieving balanced development in the region. However, the study also finds that the pharmaceutical industry in SADC lags a long way behind the rest of the world and that many countries and firms will need to begin at the bottom of the value chain, with formulation, in order to contribute to the development of RVCs. The thesis concludes with recommendations on what policies are needed to foster the growth and development of pharmaceutical RVCs in the SADC region. These include strengthening public procurement, providing incentives for investment into the industry, incremental production and incremental export volumes, as well as certainty and predictability around the regulatory and business environment. Further, policy should aim to construct synergies and linkages on the ground between health systems and industrial developments; regulate service links important to pharmaceutical manufacturing; develop a coherent regional policy agenda; remove unnecessary non-tariff barriers to trade in the region and, in line with development integration, implement trade policy along with trade infrastructure that is efficient and includes airports, rail, roads and ports, as well as effective access to the internet.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2018
The regulation of subsidies and regional trade among developing countries in the multilateral trading system: the case of export processing zones in Malawi
- Authors: Chirwa, Watson Pajanji
- Date: 2018
- Subjects: Trade regulation -- Malawi , Subsidies -- Law and legislation -- Malawi , Southern African Development Community , Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa , Foreign trade regulation -- Malawi , Export processing zones -- Law and legislation -- Malawi
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , LLM
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/62428 , vital:28175
- Description: The paradigm shift engaged by countries in SADC and COMESA, such as Malawi, from the use of import substitution policies which were aimed at protecting their infant industries, to export led growth strategies, necessitated these developing countries to liberalise their economies. The liberalisation of these economies meant that, for them to attain development, they needed to trade more on the international market. However, with underdeveloped industries and a lack of local entrepreneurs who could provide export supplies to fill the void created by the liberalisation policies, developing countries had to look beyond their borders for investors. In pursuit of this objective, governments have been devising ways of attracting foreign direct investment which can stimulate export growth. One of the methods employed is the granting of investment incentives to would-be investors. Unlike developed countries who provide investment incentives in the form of financial incentives, developing countries grant fiscal incentives. These are incentives that reduce tax burdens of enterprises to induce them to invest in particular projects or sectors. One of the mediums of providing the incentives adopted by the developing countries is the use of EPZ schemes. EPZs provide incentives such as exemptions of direct and indirect taxes to companies that operate in the zones. However, being Members of the WTO and SADC and/or COMESA, these countries are bound by obligations regulating trade and investment as found in these Agreements. The expectation is that the fiscal incentives employed in the EPZs do not grant subsidies that are prohibited under the SCM Agreement and rules regulating subsidies in SADC and COMESA. In addition, even though the use of EPZs is not expressly proscribed under the SADC Protocol on Trade, it may be against the objectives of the Protocol - one of which is the pursuance of the inter-jurisdictional goal of cooperation in attainment of free trade among its members. Therefore, this study assesses whether the use of EPZs by some countries in the two RTAs (particularly Malawi) is in tandem with the subsidies regulation as found in the multilateral trading system and at regional level. It also assesses whether, if there is a breach of the same, it might be justified as part of the special and differential treatment accorded to developing countries by developed countries under the WTO. The study further assesses whether the use of EPZs might be against the spirit and objects of FTAs such as SADC.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2018
- Authors: Chirwa, Watson Pajanji
- Date: 2018
- Subjects: Trade regulation -- Malawi , Subsidies -- Law and legislation -- Malawi , Southern African Development Community , Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa , Foreign trade regulation -- Malawi , Export processing zones -- Law and legislation -- Malawi
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , LLM
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/62428 , vital:28175
- Description: The paradigm shift engaged by countries in SADC and COMESA, such as Malawi, from the use of import substitution policies which were aimed at protecting their infant industries, to export led growth strategies, necessitated these developing countries to liberalise their economies. The liberalisation of these economies meant that, for them to attain development, they needed to trade more on the international market. However, with underdeveloped industries and a lack of local entrepreneurs who could provide export supplies to fill the void created by the liberalisation policies, developing countries had to look beyond their borders for investors. In pursuit of this objective, governments have been devising ways of attracting foreign direct investment which can stimulate export growth. One of the methods employed is the granting of investment incentives to would-be investors. Unlike developed countries who provide investment incentives in the form of financial incentives, developing countries grant fiscal incentives. These are incentives that reduce tax burdens of enterprises to induce them to invest in particular projects or sectors. One of the mediums of providing the incentives adopted by the developing countries is the use of EPZ schemes. EPZs provide incentives such as exemptions of direct and indirect taxes to companies that operate in the zones. However, being Members of the WTO and SADC and/or COMESA, these countries are bound by obligations regulating trade and investment as found in these Agreements. The expectation is that the fiscal incentives employed in the EPZs do not grant subsidies that are prohibited under the SCM Agreement and rules regulating subsidies in SADC and COMESA. In addition, even though the use of EPZs is not expressly proscribed under the SADC Protocol on Trade, it may be against the objectives of the Protocol - one of which is the pursuance of the inter-jurisdictional goal of cooperation in attainment of free trade among its members. Therefore, this study assesses whether the use of EPZs by some countries in the two RTAs (particularly Malawi) is in tandem with the subsidies regulation as found in the multilateral trading system and at regional level. It also assesses whether, if there is a breach of the same, it might be justified as part of the special and differential treatment accorded to developing countries by developed countries under the WTO. The study further assesses whether the use of EPZs might be against the spirit and objects of FTAs such as SADC.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2018
Trading with selected SADC countries and economic growth in South Africa
- Authors: Malimba, Nwabisa
- Date: 2018
- Subjects: Southern African Development Community , Economic development -- South Africa South Africa -- Economic conditions -- 1991 Economic development -- Africa, Southern
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/31962 , vital:31867
- Description: This study empirically evaluates the impact of trading with SADC countries on the economic growth of South Africa (2010 -2016). The study used Fixed Effects Model to determine the relationship between economic growth of South Africa and the selected explanatory variables. The study made use of annual panel data from World Bank, Focus Economics and Trading economics. The relationship between South Africa’s economic growth and its determinants was examined using the procedure suggested in the literature by William (2017). Various tests were conducted to ensure that the relevant model is used and to produce reliable results. The results of a fixed effects model revealed that exports, imports and trade openness are statistically significant for South African economic growth. However, the p-values indicated that trade openness is the most statistically significant variable in explaining the variation in South African economic growth better than other explanatory variables confirm. Other variables that explained the fitness of the model for the data indicated that the model was a good fit. The implication of the results obtained from Fixed Effects model is that there was little trade between South Africa and selected SADC countries during the period under review. Trading with SADC countries has a negative effect on South African economy mainly because there was a decrease in exports to SADC over the past six years and that SADC countries still need to be more open to trade. Less intensive trading between SADC countries could be attributed to shortage of capital, infrastructure and skilled labour among SADC countries. The main trading partners of South Africa are countries that are characterised by being capital intensive and have highly skilled labour. In the light of the challenges that negatively affects trade in the SADC region, the study suggests that SADC should spell out the criteria that countries need to meet before they can become members of the union. These should be non-negotiable and ensure that member states harmonise their policies with those of SADC. The study also suggests that SADC countries should be more open to trade as it has been empirically proven that trade openness has a positive relationship with economic growth. Empirical evidence presents that countries with open, large and more developed neighbouring economies grow faster than those with closed, smaller, and less developed neighbouring economies. Trade should be intensified because there are potential gains to trading with SADC. It is further suggested that more focus should be given on work related training to improve the skills of our labour force. These suggestions are based on the belief that African countries have the ability to rescue themselves out of the vicious cycle of poverty.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2018
- Authors: Malimba, Nwabisa
- Date: 2018
- Subjects: Southern African Development Community , Economic development -- South Africa South Africa -- Economic conditions -- 1991 Economic development -- Africa, Southern
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/31962 , vital:31867
- Description: This study empirically evaluates the impact of trading with SADC countries on the economic growth of South Africa (2010 -2016). The study used Fixed Effects Model to determine the relationship between economic growth of South Africa and the selected explanatory variables. The study made use of annual panel data from World Bank, Focus Economics and Trading economics. The relationship between South Africa’s economic growth and its determinants was examined using the procedure suggested in the literature by William (2017). Various tests were conducted to ensure that the relevant model is used and to produce reliable results. The results of a fixed effects model revealed that exports, imports and trade openness are statistically significant for South African economic growth. However, the p-values indicated that trade openness is the most statistically significant variable in explaining the variation in South African economic growth better than other explanatory variables confirm. Other variables that explained the fitness of the model for the data indicated that the model was a good fit. The implication of the results obtained from Fixed Effects model is that there was little trade between South Africa and selected SADC countries during the period under review. Trading with SADC countries has a negative effect on South African economy mainly because there was a decrease in exports to SADC over the past six years and that SADC countries still need to be more open to trade. Less intensive trading between SADC countries could be attributed to shortage of capital, infrastructure and skilled labour among SADC countries. The main trading partners of South Africa are countries that are characterised by being capital intensive and have highly skilled labour. In the light of the challenges that negatively affects trade in the SADC region, the study suggests that SADC should spell out the criteria that countries need to meet before they can become members of the union. These should be non-negotiable and ensure that member states harmonise their policies with those of SADC. The study also suggests that SADC countries should be more open to trade as it has been empirically proven that trade openness has a positive relationship with economic growth. Empirical evidence presents that countries with open, large and more developed neighbouring economies grow faster than those with closed, smaller, and less developed neighbouring economies. Trade should be intensified because there are potential gains to trading with SADC. It is further suggested that more focus should be given on work related training to improve the skills of our labour force. These suggestions are based on the belief that African countries have the ability to rescue themselves out of the vicious cycle of poverty.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2018
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