Housing market dynamics and economic growth in South Africa (1994 – 2019)
- Authors: Muchaonyerwa, Forward
- Date: 2023-09
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa , Housing -- Prices -- South Africa , Housing forecasting -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Doctoral theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10353/28628 , vital:74477
- Description: The housing market contributes significantly to economic growth. On this background, the study examined South Africa’s housing market dynamics, particularly determinants of demand, supply, and formal housing prices. Furthermore, the study looked at the impact of housing prices on economic growth from 1994:Q1 to 2019:Q2. The study period is important as it covers the new political dispensation in South Africa where the country entered a new democracy in 1994. The first three objectives of the study were to identify the determinants of housing demand, supply, and prices. The theory of demand and supply provided the theoretical framework for these models. Estimation of the housing demand, supply and price models was done by the employing Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) technique. The Three Stage Least Squares (3SLS) model was estimated for robustness. Findings from SUR and 3SLS confirmed that Housing Demand (HD) is negatively and significantly influenced by residential Building Costs per Square Meter (BCSM), Housing Supply (HS) and Financial Costs (FC); and positively influenced by House Prices (HP). In addition, HS is negatively affected by BCSM, HD, Production Costs (PC) and Urban Population (UP); and positively influenced by HP and Residential Construction Confidence (RC). Lastly, HP are negatively affected by Prime Overdraft Rate (POR) and RC; and positively influenced by BCSM, HS, HD, Coincident Business Cycle Indicator (CBC) and residential Valuation (VAL). The fourth objective was to examine the impact of house prices on economic growth. An economic model was specified with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as its dependent variable. The new growth theory provided the theoretical framework for this model. The Johansen co-integration technique confirmed a long run-term relationship between economic growth and house prices. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) was estimated to analyze the long and short run relationship among the variables. Empirical results confirmed that house prices have a positive impact on economic growth. Results further confirmed that CBC and Unemployment Rate (UR) are also positively related to GDP. POR and Leading Business Cycle indicator (LEBC) are negatively related to GDP. Granger Causality test was performed to analyze the causality between house prices and economic growth. The results indicated that there is a long run unidirectional causality from house prices to economic growth. With these results, the study recommends policy formation emanating from continuous research by establishing a human settlement agency or task team. The team can establish procedures for data collection and maintain a database for all kinds of housing market data. Their mandate includes research on commissioning of new towns and/or cities to boost housing supply. The government should avail more land and relax restrictive regulations and minimize red tape to ensure that houses are supplied to meet the growing demand as well as to stabilize prices. Policies to promote confidence and stabilize building costs are needed. These variables indicated significant influence on housing dynamics. It is also recommended to incentivize households to participate on the mortgage market. This assist both households through the wealth effect which positively influence increase in economic activity in South Africa. , Thesis (DCom) -- Faculty of Management and Commerce, 2023
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2023-09
- Authors: Muchaonyerwa, Forward
- Date: 2023-09
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa , Housing -- Prices -- South Africa , Housing forecasting -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Doctoral theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10353/28628 , vital:74477
- Description: The housing market contributes significantly to economic growth. On this background, the study examined South Africa’s housing market dynamics, particularly determinants of demand, supply, and formal housing prices. Furthermore, the study looked at the impact of housing prices on economic growth from 1994:Q1 to 2019:Q2. The study period is important as it covers the new political dispensation in South Africa where the country entered a new democracy in 1994. The first three objectives of the study were to identify the determinants of housing demand, supply, and prices. The theory of demand and supply provided the theoretical framework for these models. Estimation of the housing demand, supply and price models was done by the employing Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) technique. The Three Stage Least Squares (3SLS) model was estimated for robustness. Findings from SUR and 3SLS confirmed that Housing Demand (HD) is negatively and significantly influenced by residential Building Costs per Square Meter (BCSM), Housing Supply (HS) and Financial Costs (FC); and positively influenced by House Prices (HP). In addition, HS is negatively affected by BCSM, HD, Production Costs (PC) and Urban Population (UP); and positively influenced by HP and Residential Construction Confidence (RC). Lastly, HP are negatively affected by Prime Overdraft Rate (POR) and RC; and positively influenced by BCSM, HS, HD, Coincident Business Cycle Indicator (CBC) and residential Valuation (VAL). The fourth objective was to examine the impact of house prices on economic growth. An economic model was specified with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as its dependent variable. The new growth theory provided the theoretical framework for this model. The Johansen co-integration technique confirmed a long run-term relationship between economic growth and house prices. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) was estimated to analyze the long and short run relationship among the variables. Empirical results confirmed that house prices have a positive impact on economic growth. Results further confirmed that CBC and Unemployment Rate (UR) are also positively related to GDP. POR and Leading Business Cycle indicator (LEBC) are negatively related to GDP. Granger Causality test was performed to analyze the causality between house prices and economic growth. The results indicated that there is a long run unidirectional causality from house prices to economic growth. With these results, the study recommends policy formation emanating from continuous research by establishing a human settlement agency or task team. The team can establish procedures for data collection and maintain a database for all kinds of housing market data. Their mandate includes research on commissioning of new towns and/or cities to boost housing supply. The government should avail more land and relax restrictive regulations and minimize red tape to ensure that houses are supplied to meet the growing demand as well as to stabilize prices. Policies to promote confidence and stabilize building costs are needed. These variables indicated significant influence on housing dynamics. It is also recommended to incentivize households to participate on the mortgage market. This assist both households through the wealth effect which positively influence increase in economic activity in South Africa. , Thesis (DCom) -- Faculty of Management and Commerce, 2023
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2023-09
Human capital development and strategic plan alignment: a case of the Eastern Cape Department of Education
- Zindi, Beauty https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4790-5379
- Authors: Zindi, Beauty https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4790-5379
- Date: 2023-09
- Subjects: Human capital -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Strategic planning -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape
- Language: English
- Type: Doctoral theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10353/28694 , vital:74500
- Description: Human capital development as an interactive process enhances and facilitates the development of skills, capabilities and potential of human capital through organisational development. Thus, to achieve goals and strategic plans effectively and efficiently, the public sector must continuously upskill the knowledge and capacity of its human capital. The dearth in skills and capacity, often result in sub-optimal performance in the Eastern Cape Department of Education (ECDoE). To achieve key objectives in its strategic plan, the ECDoE must align its hhuman capital development needs with its strategic plan. The main objective of this study is to explore the nature and extent of alignment between human capital development and the strategic plan of the ECDoE. The sub-objectives of the study are to: (i) establish a conceptual framework for informing human capital development and strategic plan alignment in theECDoE ; (ii) determine how continuous teacher development as a human capital development approach can be more closely aligned with the strategic priorities of the ECDoE’s strategic plan; (iii) explore how human capital development aligns with the strategic plan and Performance Development Management System (PDMS) of the ECDoE and (iv) recommend how the ECDoE can align its strategic human capital development to its strategic plan and performance management system. The study adopts a pragmatic research philosophy and a mixed- methods approach. The quantitative strategy and positivist paradigm were adopted to collect data, from purposefully two hundred and sixty-seven (n=267) educators using a survey questionnaire. The interpretivist research philosophy informed the qualitative strategy. In-depth interview data was collected from five (n=5) purposefully sampled information-rich participants to a point of data saturation. Quantitative data was analysed using descriptive and inferential statistics, while qualitative data was analysed using thematic analysis. Statistical results from survey data rejected hypothesis H10 and confirmed H11 which hypothesised that there was a relationship between eemployee performance and sstrategic plan alignment. Results further confirmed the relationship between employee performance and effectiveness of training alignment. Furthermore, results confirmed an association between employee performance and trainee evaluation. Results from qualitative data suggest that the ECDoE lacked competitive and effective skills human capital development training programmes, effective human resource development strategy as well as developmental capacity building training opportunities for educators. Such capacity dearth affected both educator and learner performance, leading to sub-optimal performance learner outcomes and academic achievement results. The ECDoE must therefore closely monitor and evaluate training programmes and assess their impact on educator performance. Training must be closely aligned with skills and capacity training needs of employees and must contribute to skills acquisition and job performance indicators, envisaged in the department’s strategic plan, mission and vision. Given the findings, the study recommends a framework for human capital development and strategic plan alignment in the public sector, particularly in the ECDoE. It concludes that continuous professional development must be a key performance driver for improving effectiveness and efficiency in strategic goal, vision and mission attainment. , Thesis (DPA) -- Faculty of Management and Commerce, 2023
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2023-09
- Authors: Zindi, Beauty https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4790-5379
- Date: 2023-09
- Subjects: Human capital -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Strategic planning -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape
- Language: English
- Type: Doctoral theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10353/28694 , vital:74500
- Description: Human capital development as an interactive process enhances and facilitates the development of skills, capabilities and potential of human capital through organisational development. Thus, to achieve goals and strategic plans effectively and efficiently, the public sector must continuously upskill the knowledge and capacity of its human capital. The dearth in skills and capacity, often result in sub-optimal performance in the Eastern Cape Department of Education (ECDoE). To achieve key objectives in its strategic plan, the ECDoE must align its hhuman capital development needs with its strategic plan. The main objective of this study is to explore the nature and extent of alignment between human capital development and the strategic plan of the ECDoE. The sub-objectives of the study are to: (i) establish a conceptual framework for informing human capital development and strategic plan alignment in theECDoE ; (ii) determine how continuous teacher development as a human capital development approach can be more closely aligned with the strategic priorities of the ECDoE’s strategic plan; (iii) explore how human capital development aligns with the strategic plan and Performance Development Management System (PDMS) of the ECDoE and (iv) recommend how the ECDoE can align its strategic human capital development to its strategic plan and performance management system. The study adopts a pragmatic research philosophy and a mixed- methods approach. The quantitative strategy and positivist paradigm were adopted to collect data, from purposefully two hundred and sixty-seven (n=267) educators using a survey questionnaire. The interpretivist research philosophy informed the qualitative strategy. In-depth interview data was collected from five (n=5) purposefully sampled information-rich participants to a point of data saturation. Quantitative data was analysed using descriptive and inferential statistics, while qualitative data was analysed using thematic analysis. Statistical results from survey data rejected hypothesis H10 and confirmed H11 which hypothesised that there was a relationship between eemployee performance and sstrategic plan alignment. Results further confirmed the relationship between employee performance and effectiveness of training alignment. Furthermore, results confirmed an association between employee performance and trainee evaluation. Results from qualitative data suggest that the ECDoE lacked competitive and effective skills human capital development training programmes, effective human resource development strategy as well as developmental capacity building training opportunities for educators. Such capacity dearth affected both educator and learner performance, leading to sub-optimal performance learner outcomes and academic achievement results. The ECDoE must therefore closely monitor and evaluate training programmes and assess their impact on educator performance. Training must be closely aligned with skills and capacity training needs of employees and must contribute to skills acquisition and job performance indicators, envisaged in the department’s strategic plan, mission and vision. Given the findings, the study recommends a framework for human capital development and strategic plan alignment in the public sector, particularly in the ECDoE. It concludes that continuous professional development must be a key performance driver for improving effectiveness and efficiency in strategic goal, vision and mission attainment. , Thesis (DPA) -- Faculty of Management and Commerce, 2023
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2023-09
The career development processes of senior black female academics in a historically disadvantaged institution in South Africa
- Dondolo,Vuyelwa, Chinyamurindi, Willie
- Authors: Dondolo,Vuyelwa , Chinyamurindi, Willie
- Date: 2023-09
- Subjects: Career development. , Historically Black colleges and universities. , Psychology, Industrial.
- Language: English
- Type: Doctoral theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10353/28894 , vital:75406
- Description: Orientation The literature has shown that females are marginalised and under-represented more specifically in South Africa where females have been facing triple challenges. The issues of gender race and social class are factors which have hindered their career development. However as times change the development of Black females has been prioritised. This has led to calls for more empirical focus in understanding the career development processes especially of Black females. From this practitioner managerial and policymaker ramifications can be made. Research purpose To investigate the career development processes of senior Black female academics and further explain how they navigate the barriers concerning their careers. Motivation for the study The increasing need for career related research has prompted the need for more female career development studies in South Africa. Moreover calls have been made to better understand the career development process of female academics. This sample occupies an important space not just in terms of redress but also paving the future of the South African knowledge production space. Research approach design and method The study utilised an interpretivist qualitative research philosophy and approach. The study was exploratory in nature and relied on semi structured interviews with 20 senior Black female academics working at a Historically Disadvantaged Institution in South Africa. Narrative analysis using the three levels of meaning making was used to analyse the data. The first level was used to get a good understanding of participants accounts of career development processes for senior Black female academics in an HDI. The second level of meaning was used to identify and categorise codes and themes that emanated from the lived experiences of the participants interviewed. The final level of meaning enabled the researcher to use the themes that were generated and to extract direct quotes from the participants stories. Main findings Three main findings emerged from the study. First intersectionality archetypes were found to be continued barriers to the career development of the senior Black female academics. Second the study found the interacting nexus between serendipity premeditated events and the taking of opportunities in assisting the career development of senior Black female academics. Finally in addressing the challenges experienced as part of their career development the role of direct and indirect agentic power was at play in addressing barriers. Practical managerial implications The findings of this study may assist career counsellors to identify the challenges which are being faced by senior Black female academics during their career development such as racial discrimination gender bias and social class. This information can be useful during the career path to ensure awareness of the growing issues of intersectional complexities surrounding working senior Black female academics. Moreover managers who occupy managerial positions in higher education institutions can use the findings to create a conducive environment for the progression of senior Black female academics. The managerial implication can be in form of financial assistance mentoring as well as other operational support. The findings of this study can also assist the policy development of the higher education institution focusing on senior Black female academic advancement. The policy should be oriented in such a way that it addresses the challenges of future Black females pursuing an academic career. Contribution value add This study contributes to the growing body of knowledge of career development related studies. While most South African career related research focused on challenges this study contributes to finding interrelated factors that work as complexities and aim at also showing the strategies on how to overcome interconnected barriers of Black females in South Africa. , Thesis (PhD) -- Faculty of Management and Commerce, 2023
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2023-09
- Authors: Dondolo,Vuyelwa , Chinyamurindi, Willie
- Date: 2023-09
- Subjects: Career development. , Historically Black colleges and universities. , Psychology, Industrial.
- Language: English
- Type: Doctoral theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10353/28894 , vital:75406
- Description: Orientation The literature has shown that females are marginalised and under-represented more specifically in South Africa where females have been facing triple challenges. The issues of gender race and social class are factors which have hindered their career development. However as times change the development of Black females has been prioritised. This has led to calls for more empirical focus in understanding the career development processes especially of Black females. From this practitioner managerial and policymaker ramifications can be made. Research purpose To investigate the career development processes of senior Black female academics and further explain how they navigate the barriers concerning their careers. Motivation for the study The increasing need for career related research has prompted the need for more female career development studies in South Africa. Moreover calls have been made to better understand the career development process of female academics. This sample occupies an important space not just in terms of redress but also paving the future of the South African knowledge production space. Research approach design and method The study utilised an interpretivist qualitative research philosophy and approach. The study was exploratory in nature and relied on semi structured interviews with 20 senior Black female academics working at a Historically Disadvantaged Institution in South Africa. Narrative analysis using the three levels of meaning making was used to analyse the data. The first level was used to get a good understanding of participants accounts of career development processes for senior Black female academics in an HDI. The second level of meaning was used to identify and categorise codes and themes that emanated from the lived experiences of the participants interviewed. The final level of meaning enabled the researcher to use the themes that were generated and to extract direct quotes from the participants stories. Main findings Three main findings emerged from the study. First intersectionality archetypes were found to be continued barriers to the career development of the senior Black female academics. Second the study found the interacting nexus between serendipity premeditated events and the taking of opportunities in assisting the career development of senior Black female academics. Finally in addressing the challenges experienced as part of their career development the role of direct and indirect agentic power was at play in addressing barriers. Practical managerial implications The findings of this study may assist career counsellors to identify the challenges which are being faced by senior Black female academics during their career development such as racial discrimination gender bias and social class. This information can be useful during the career path to ensure awareness of the growing issues of intersectional complexities surrounding working senior Black female academics. Moreover managers who occupy managerial positions in higher education institutions can use the findings to create a conducive environment for the progression of senior Black female academics. The managerial implication can be in form of financial assistance mentoring as well as other operational support. The findings of this study can also assist the policy development of the higher education institution focusing on senior Black female academic advancement. The policy should be oriented in such a way that it addresses the challenges of future Black females pursuing an academic career. Contribution value add This study contributes to the growing body of knowledge of career development related studies. While most South African career related research focused on challenges this study contributes to finding interrelated factors that work as complexities and aim at also showing the strategies on how to overcome interconnected barriers of Black females in South Africa. , Thesis (PhD) -- Faculty of Management and Commerce, 2023
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2023-09
The mediating role of strategic innovation on the relationship between strategic thinking, strategic planning and performance of women-owned small businesses
- Nyati, Nokhutula Tinotenda https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6546-1786
- Authors: Nyati, Nokhutula Tinotenda https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6546-1786
- Date: 2023-09
- Subjects: Women-owned business enterprises -- Management , Strategic planning , Business enterprises
- Language: English
- Type: Master's theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10353/28948 , vital:75576
- Description: In recent years the number of SMMEs in general has been on the rise; moreover, what is remarkable about this rise is that the number of women entrepreneurs has also risen at the same time. Over the past decade’s women entrepreneurs have attracted the attention of many scholars because of the significant impact they have been having on economic growth, economic development and job creation, among many other benefits. Entrepreneurship and the participation of women in the formation of SMMEs has been recognised as a new strategy for women to be part of the ever-growing entrepreneurship population. Although there has been a rise in the number of womenowned SMMEs, there is however, a general under-performance of women-owned businesses versus their male counterparts. As such it is crucial to understand what impacts the performance of women-owned SMMEs and amongst the key factors is strategy which encompasses strategic thinking, strategic planning and strategic innovation. The purpose of this study was to investigate these factors, specifically the mediating role of strategic innovation, on the relationship between strategic thinking, strategic planning and performance of women-owned SMMEs. To achieve the purpose of this study, the study adopted a positivist paradigm because of its objective nature which is also supported by the quantitative research approach; in addition the study adopted the descriptive research design. An electronic questionnaire (online-administered) system was administered to the women in the Buffalo City Metropolitan Municipality (BCMM) which yielded 200 responses. Participants were selected through the convenience sampling technique across small businesses in the BCMM in the Eastern Cape province of South Africa. The Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) software and Smart PLS software were used for data analysis to test the hypotheses. Tests such as multiple linear regression, factor analysis, correlations, ANOVA and t-tests were used to test the hypotheses. The findings of the study showed that strategic thinking, strategic planning and strategic innovation have a significant influence on the performance of women-owned SMMEs. The study also found that strategic innovation does not mediate the relationship between strategic thinking, strategic planning and the performance of women-owned SMMEs. Instead, it is strategic planning that was found to have this mediating effect. As such, amongst other recommendations, it is recommended that women should take time to educate themselves on the concepts of strategy, strategic thinking, planning and innovation so that they can improve their performance and achieve competitive advantage within their respective industries. The study also recommended that the government and metropolitan municipality should encourage and develop support structures that will help women entrepreneurs to enhance and develop their strategic thinking, strategic planning and strategic innovation skills. , Thesis (MA) -- Faculty of Management and Commerce, 2023
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2023-09
- Authors: Nyati, Nokhutula Tinotenda https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6546-1786
- Date: 2023-09
- Subjects: Women-owned business enterprises -- Management , Strategic planning , Business enterprises
- Language: English
- Type: Master's theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10353/28948 , vital:75576
- Description: In recent years the number of SMMEs in general has been on the rise; moreover, what is remarkable about this rise is that the number of women entrepreneurs has also risen at the same time. Over the past decade’s women entrepreneurs have attracted the attention of many scholars because of the significant impact they have been having on economic growth, economic development and job creation, among many other benefits. Entrepreneurship and the participation of women in the formation of SMMEs has been recognised as a new strategy for women to be part of the ever-growing entrepreneurship population. Although there has been a rise in the number of womenowned SMMEs, there is however, a general under-performance of women-owned businesses versus their male counterparts. As such it is crucial to understand what impacts the performance of women-owned SMMEs and amongst the key factors is strategy which encompasses strategic thinking, strategic planning and strategic innovation. The purpose of this study was to investigate these factors, specifically the mediating role of strategic innovation, on the relationship between strategic thinking, strategic planning and performance of women-owned SMMEs. To achieve the purpose of this study, the study adopted a positivist paradigm because of its objective nature which is also supported by the quantitative research approach; in addition the study adopted the descriptive research design. An electronic questionnaire (online-administered) system was administered to the women in the Buffalo City Metropolitan Municipality (BCMM) which yielded 200 responses. Participants were selected through the convenience sampling technique across small businesses in the BCMM in the Eastern Cape province of South Africa. The Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) software and Smart PLS software were used for data analysis to test the hypotheses. Tests such as multiple linear regression, factor analysis, correlations, ANOVA and t-tests were used to test the hypotheses. The findings of the study showed that strategic thinking, strategic planning and strategic innovation have a significant influence on the performance of women-owned SMMEs. The study also found that strategic innovation does not mediate the relationship between strategic thinking, strategic planning and the performance of women-owned SMMEs. Instead, it is strategic planning that was found to have this mediating effect. As such, amongst other recommendations, it is recommended that women should take time to educate themselves on the concepts of strategy, strategic thinking, planning and innovation so that they can improve their performance and achieve competitive advantage within their respective industries. The study also recommended that the government and metropolitan municipality should encourage and develop support structures that will help women entrepreneurs to enhance and develop their strategic thinking, strategic planning and strategic innovation skills. , Thesis (MA) -- Faculty of Management and Commerce, 2023
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2023-09
Tourism and economic growth in the Republics of Botswana and Madagascar: an empirical investigation of causal links
- Authors: Masvingise, Kudzai
- Date: 2023-09
- Subjects: Tourism -- Botswana , Economic development -- Botswana , Econometric models
- Language: English
- Type: Master's theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10353/28334 , vital:74267
- Description: This study investigated the Granger causality of tourism and economic growth in the Republics of Botswana and Madagascar during the period 1995 2019. The study was inspired by speculation regarding the influence of tourism on the economic growth of the two countries, given that the literature cautions that the relationship is not always direct and obvious, but rather depends on the country and changes over time. The ARDL-bounds F-test was used to test for co-integration and for Granger causality, with the ECM-based multivariate Granger-causality test used. The results confirm that tourism and economic growth have a prevailing stable, long-run co-integration in both countries, with a unidirectional causation, in that tourism is propelled by economic growth. These findings support the growth-led tourism GDP TOR hypothesis for both countries, and do not corroborate the popular tourism-led growth TPR GDP hypothesis. The study findings imply that both countries’ rich natural resources are insufficient to propel tourism growth and drive GDP in the absence of a supportive economic environment. The study therefore recommends that investment and policy efforts in Botswana and Madagascar focus more on overall economic development than at tourism per se. This would create an environment conducive for attracting and retaining visitors to these countries, and thus boost tourism. , Thesis (MSc) -- Faculty of Science and Agriculture, 2023
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2023-09
- Authors: Masvingise, Kudzai
- Date: 2023-09
- Subjects: Tourism -- Botswana , Economic development -- Botswana , Econometric models
- Language: English
- Type: Master's theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10353/28334 , vital:74267
- Description: This study investigated the Granger causality of tourism and economic growth in the Republics of Botswana and Madagascar during the period 1995 2019. The study was inspired by speculation regarding the influence of tourism on the economic growth of the two countries, given that the literature cautions that the relationship is not always direct and obvious, but rather depends on the country and changes over time. The ARDL-bounds F-test was used to test for co-integration and for Granger causality, with the ECM-based multivariate Granger-causality test used. The results confirm that tourism and economic growth have a prevailing stable, long-run co-integration in both countries, with a unidirectional causation, in that tourism is propelled by economic growth. These findings support the growth-led tourism GDP TOR hypothesis for both countries, and do not corroborate the popular tourism-led growth TPR GDP hypothesis. The study findings imply that both countries’ rich natural resources are insufficient to propel tourism growth and drive GDP in the absence of a supportive economic environment. The study therefore recommends that investment and policy efforts in Botswana and Madagascar focus more on overall economic development than at tourism per se. This would create an environment conducive for attracting and retaining visitors to these countries, and thus boost tourism. , Thesis (MSc) -- Faculty of Science and Agriculture, 2023
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2023-09
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