The interaction between oil price shocks, currency volatility and stock market prices: evidence from South Africa
- Authors: Tshivhase, Mikovhe
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Petroleum products -- Prices , Accounting and price fluctuations , Inflation (Finance) -- South Africa , Stock exchanges , Economics
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/43834 , vital:37051
- Description: Crude oil is an essential and strategic commodity in modern economies. Therefore, energy price fluctuations have the potential of affecting the economic welfare of a country. For instance, they have the potential to undermine the government’s attainment of its economic growth targets (National Treasury, 2016:2). The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) also considers oil price movements to be one of the major threats to currency volatility and the continued attainment of its inflation targets of about (3-6, per cent), as evidenced by numerous recent statements by its monetary policy committee (SARB, 2016:5-13). This study used co-integration tests to investigate the interaction between oil price shocks, exchange rates and stock market prices in South Africa over the period 1 January 2011 to 1 April 2018. The study employed the Johansen co-integration test. The results found no long run co-integration between oil prices, exchange rate and stock market prices. Therefore, this study adopted the VAR model for causality tests. Using the VAR model, this study found the existence of a unidirectional causality between stock prices and oil prices, with stock prices leading the oil prices changes. The all share index, resources and financials index were found to be significant variables to explain oil prices. This result is consistent with the business cycle view, which states that oil price fluctuations are mainly driven by demand factors. Furthermore, strong world output growth trends especially in emerging markets, could give rise to an upward surge in oil prices. The study also found that there is a weak correlation between stock price and exchange rate in South Africa. This is consistent with the asset approach. The findings of this study add to the already largely debated theories that seek to explain the relationship between the oil prices, exchange rates and stock market prices. The recommendation of this research is that, policy makers, researchers and investment bankers or fund managers who have interest or trade these financial instruments, may have to consider the role of stock market prices in the various sectors of the economy in their models for forecasting the path of the oil prices and the Rand/US Dollar exchange rate trend.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
- Authors: Tshivhase, Mikovhe
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Petroleum products -- Prices , Accounting and price fluctuations , Inflation (Finance) -- South Africa , Stock exchanges , Economics
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/43834 , vital:37051
- Description: Crude oil is an essential and strategic commodity in modern economies. Therefore, energy price fluctuations have the potential of affecting the economic welfare of a country. For instance, they have the potential to undermine the government’s attainment of its economic growth targets (National Treasury, 2016:2). The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) also considers oil price movements to be one of the major threats to currency volatility and the continued attainment of its inflation targets of about (3-6, per cent), as evidenced by numerous recent statements by its monetary policy committee (SARB, 2016:5-13). This study used co-integration tests to investigate the interaction between oil price shocks, exchange rates and stock market prices in South Africa over the period 1 January 2011 to 1 April 2018. The study employed the Johansen co-integration test. The results found no long run co-integration between oil prices, exchange rate and stock market prices. Therefore, this study adopted the VAR model for causality tests. Using the VAR model, this study found the existence of a unidirectional causality between stock prices and oil prices, with stock prices leading the oil prices changes. The all share index, resources and financials index were found to be significant variables to explain oil prices. This result is consistent with the business cycle view, which states that oil price fluctuations are mainly driven by demand factors. Furthermore, strong world output growth trends especially in emerging markets, could give rise to an upward surge in oil prices. The study also found that there is a weak correlation between stock price and exchange rate in South Africa. This is consistent with the asset approach. The findings of this study add to the already largely debated theories that seek to explain the relationship between the oil prices, exchange rates and stock market prices. The recommendation of this research is that, policy makers, researchers and investment bankers or fund managers who have interest or trade these financial instruments, may have to consider the role of stock market prices in the various sectors of the economy in their models for forecasting the path of the oil prices and the Rand/US Dollar exchange rate trend.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
Moral individualism in South African emerging adults
- Authors: Geddie, Alison Sarah
- Date: 2018
- Subjects: Moral development -- South Africa , Corporate culture -- South Africa -- Psychological aspects Business ethics -- South Africa Young adults -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MA
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/22145 , vital:29854
- Description: The intention of this study was to explore moral individualism in South African emerging adults. This was done by examining emerging adults’ ability to identify moral issue, the propensity for moral individualism among emerging adults, identifying moral individualism’s impact on emerging adult’s moral judgments of others and exploring future implications of moral individualism for organisations. This was a qualitative study and data was obtained by conducting focus group discussions. Four focus groups of five to seven people were conducted. Twenty participants participated in total and these groups were conducted until data saturation was reached. These focus groups consisted of prospective professionals studying towards a qualification. There individuals were between the ages of eighteen and twenty-three. Data collected from these focus groups was analysed using thematic analysis. The findings of this study suggest that, although participants exhibit elements of moral individualism, many of their views, specifically views on moral judgements of others, do not align with the framework presented by moral individualism. This suggests that although individual moral frameworks play a role in how individuals interact with organisations, this is not done from a moral individualist frame work.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2018
- Authors: Geddie, Alison Sarah
- Date: 2018
- Subjects: Moral development -- South Africa , Corporate culture -- South Africa -- Psychological aspects Business ethics -- South Africa Young adults -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MA
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/22145 , vital:29854
- Description: The intention of this study was to explore moral individualism in South African emerging adults. This was done by examining emerging adults’ ability to identify moral issue, the propensity for moral individualism among emerging adults, identifying moral individualism’s impact on emerging adult’s moral judgments of others and exploring future implications of moral individualism for organisations. This was a qualitative study and data was obtained by conducting focus group discussions. Four focus groups of five to seven people were conducted. Twenty participants participated in total and these groups were conducted until data saturation was reached. These focus groups consisted of prospective professionals studying towards a qualification. There individuals were between the ages of eighteen and twenty-three. Data collected from these focus groups was analysed using thematic analysis. The findings of this study suggest that, although participants exhibit elements of moral individualism, many of their views, specifically views on moral judgements of others, do not align with the framework presented by moral individualism. This suggests that although individual moral frameworks play a role in how individuals interact with organisations, this is not done from a moral individualist frame work.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2018
Community perceptions of Cannabis Sativa (dagga) in the Mzintlava location, Ingquza Hill Local Municipality, Eastern Cape Province
- Authors: Lum, Niba Rosemary
- Date: 2013
- Subjects: Cannabis sativa -- Eastern Cape -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MA (Anthropology)
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/11260/226 , vital:26586
- Description: Nowadays young people and other members of the society often find themselves in many malpractices such as rape, suicide, murder dropping out of school and other harmful activities due to the use of cannabis sativa (dagga) which is on the rise. This study concentrated on the use of cannabis sativa (dagga) in Mzintlava, Ngquza Hill Local Municipality in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa. Young people are actually the victims of the consequences of the use of dagga. Indications are that parents often ignore their children to use cannabis sativa until they can no longer stop them. Earlier researches on substance use in South Africa have always been descriptive. This resulted in sketchy understanding of factors that predisposed young children to the use and even abuse of dagga and the reasons why parents and the community underestimated the practice until the stage of addiction. Without this understanding, it will be difficult to introduce effective ways of abolishing dagga use among young children and other members of the community. Finding effective measures to prevent substance use has been difficult. Research is therefore needed in order to understand the basis of the problem. This study attempts to examine factors that make parents and the communities to leave children to taking substances until the stage where they can longer stop them. It will also lead to establishing factors that put young children or teenagers particularly at risk to the use of dagga.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2013
- Authors: Lum, Niba Rosemary
- Date: 2013
- Subjects: Cannabis sativa -- Eastern Cape -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MA (Anthropology)
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/11260/226 , vital:26586
- Description: Nowadays young people and other members of the society often find themselves in many malpractices such as rape, suicide, murder dropping out of school and other harmful activities due to the use of cannabis sativa (dagga) which is on the rise. This study concentrated on the use of cannabis sativa (dagga) in Mzintlava, Ngquza Hill Local Municipality in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa. Young people are actually the victims of the consequences of the use of dagga. Indications are that parents often ignore their children to use cannabis sativa until they can no longer stop them. Earlier researches on substance use in South Africa have always been descriptive. This resulted in sketchy understanding of factors that predisposed young children to the use and even abuse of dagga and the reasons why parents and the community underestimated the practice until the stage of addiction. Without this understanding, it will be difficult to introduce effective ways of abolishing dagga use among young children and other members of the community. Finding effective measures to prevent substance use has been difficult. Research is therefore needed in order to understand the basis of the problem. This study attempts to examine factors that make parents and the communities to leave children to taking substances until the stage where they can longer stop them. It will also lead to establishing factors that put young children or teenagers particularly at risk to the use of dagga.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2013
Willingness to pay for water quality changes in the Swartkops Estuary
- Magobiane, Siyathemba Emmanuel
- Authors: Magobiane, Siyathemba Emmanuel
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Water quality -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape -- Swartkops Estuary , Water quality -- Management , Estuaries -- South Africa -- Swartkops River
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:9000 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/d1011505 , Water quality -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape -- Swartkops Estuary , Water quality -- Management , Estuaries -- South Africa -- Swartkops River
- Description: South Africa, like the rest of the world, is vulnerable to the impact of climate change and loss of biodiversity. Water pollution is one of the six global threats to freshwater biodiversity. The future health status and productivity of South Africa’s estuaries is dependent on two main factors: management and quality and quantity of freshwater inputs. South Africa has around 250 functioning estuaries along its 3000 km coastline (Hosking 2004). They play an invaluable role in ecosystem functioning and biodiversity conservation. Estuaries are amongst the richest and most productive parts of the marine environment and as such call for careful management. Some of these ecosystems are focus areas for urban an industrial development. Urbanization and industrialization pose a serious threat to these sensitive systems. Increased water pollution from domestic use, industry and agriculture affect the ecology of these estuarine, river and lake systems. A large number of South African estuaries are still in excellent or good condition, but these are mainly the very small systems. The larger systems, like the Swartkops estuary, often very important in terms of conservation value, are also often compromised in some way or other. The reasons why they are compromised include habitat destruction, artificial breaching and pollution, especially those close to urban areas. This situation is aggravated by outdated and inadequate sewage treatment plant infrastructure and unskilled operators that dispose untreated waste into these systems. Pollution into estuaries can result in the partial loss of the environmental service flows supplied by them. The result of lost environmental service flows has adverse consequences, such as diminished residential and holiday recreational appeal, as well as reduced capacity to support subsistence livelihoods. Poor water quality not only limits its utilisation value, but is also places added economic burden on society, through both the primary treatment costs and the secondary impacts on the economy. Healthy estuarine ecosystems are essential for the maintenance of biodiversity and a wide range of environmental goods and services. Without a drastic improvement in water quality management approaches and treatment technologies, the continuous deterioration in water quality will decrease benefits and increase costs affiliated with use of these water resources.The market-based system of the South African economy has to a large extent failed to account for the value of the “free” goods and services provided by the natural environment. When the true value of the natural resources is unknown, there is a risk that less financial resources and capacity are made available to manage and protect these natural resources than is efficient. To ensure that these goods are properly taken into account, they must be valued and these values incorporated in social decision making. This study uses the contingent valuation method (CVM) to establish the value of the Swartkops estuary for changes to water quality. The CVM is a non-market valuation method that is widely used in cost-benefit analysis and environmental impact assessment. The CVM establishes the economic value of the good by asking the users of an environmental good to state their willingness to pay for a hypothetical scenario to prevent, or bring about, certain changes in the current condition of the environmental good. This method is subjected to some criticism. This criticism revolves around the validity and the reliability of estimated results and the effects of various biases and errors on them. The North Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Blue-Ribbon panel investigating the validity of the CVM resolved that the CVM can be used to guide social decision making, if a series of guidelines are followed. The Swartkops contingent valuation (CV) was conducted with these guidelines in mind. The results of the Swartkops CV indicate that the user population has a total willingness to pay (TWTP) of R68848 (median bid) and R203632 (mean bid) annually for the implementation of a project to improve the water quality in the Swartkops estuary. User population is an important determinant of the TWTP value. As a result, using a more broadly defined user population, TWTP per annum was calculated to be R3481987 (median bid) and R10298688 (mean bid). Management of natural resources should be informed by values that reflect efficient balances, so as to obtain the most efficient use of them (Trupie 2008). Polluted water inflows into South Africa’s estuaries are a threat to their biodiversity. Healthy estuarine ecosystems are essential for the maintenance of biodiversity and human well-being (Water Assessment Programme Report 2006: 15). As a result, this study recommends that a project be implemented by the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality to improve water quality in the Swartkops estuary.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
- Authors: Magobiane, Siyathemba Emmanuel
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Water quality -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape -- Swartkops Estuary , Water quality -- Management , Estuaries -- South Africa -- Swartkops River
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:9000 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/d1011505 , Water quality -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape -- Swartkops Estuary , Water quality -- Management , Estuaries -- South Africa -- Swartkops River
- Description: South Africa, like the rest of the world, is vulnerable to the impact of climate change and loss of biodiversity. Water pollution is one of the six global threats to freshwater biodiversity. The future health status and productivity of South Africa’s estuaries is dependent on two main factors: management and quality and quantity of freshwater inputs. South Africa has around 250 functioning estuaries along its 3000 km coastline (Hosking 2004). They play an invaluable role in ecosystem functioning and biodiversity conservation. Estuaries are amongst the richest and most productive parts of the marine environment and as such call for careful management. Some of these ecosystems are focus areas for urban an industrial development. Urbanization and industrialization pose a serious threat to these sensitive systems. Increased water pollution from domestic use, industry and agriculture affect the ecology of these estuarine, river and lake systems. A large number of South African estuaries are still in excellent or good condition, but these are mainly the very small systems. The larger systems, like the Swartkops estuary, often very important in terms of conservation value, are also often compromised in some way or other. The reasons why they are compromised include habitat destruction, artificial breaching and pollution, especially those close to urban areas. This situation is aggravated by outdated and inadequate sewage treatment plant infrastructure and unskilled operators that dispose untreated waste into these systems. Pollution into estuaries can result in the partial loss of the environmental service flows supplied by them. The result of lost environmental service flows has adverse consequences, such as diminished residential and holiday recreational appeal, as well as reduced capacity to support subsistence livelihoods. Poor water quality not only limits its utilisation value, but is also places added economic burden on society, through both the primary treatment costs and the secondary impacts on the economy. Healthy estuarine ecosystems are essential for the maintenance of biodiversity and a wide range of environmental goods and services. Without a drastic improvement in water quality management approaches and treatment technologies, the continuous deterioration in water quality will decrease benefits and increase costs affiliated with use of these water resources.The market-based system of the South African economy has to a large extent failed to account for the value of the “free” goods and services provided by the natural environment. When the true value of the natural resources is unknown, there is a risk that less financial resources and capacity are made available to manage and protect these natural resources than is efficient. To ensure that these goods are properly taken into account, they must be valued and these values incorporated in social decision making. This study uses the contingent valuation method (CVM) to establish the value of the Swartkops estuary for changes to water quality. The CVM is a non-market valuation method that is widely used in cost-benefit analysis and environmental impact assessment. The CVM establishes the economic value of the good by asking the users of an environmental good to state their willingness to pay for a hypothetical scenario to prevent, or bring about, certain changes in the current condition of the environmental good. This method is subjected to some criticism. This criticism revolves around the validity and the reliability of estimated results and the effects of various biases and errors on them. The North Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Blue-Ribbon panel investigating the validity of the CVM resolved that the CVM can be used to guide social decision making, if a series of guidelines are followed. The Swartkops contingent valuation (CV) was conducted with these guidelines in mind. The results of the Swartkops CV indicate that the user population has a total willingness to pay (TWTP) of R68848 (median bid) and R203632 (mean bid) annually for the implementation of a project to improve the water quality in the Swartkops estuary. User population is an important determinant of the TWTP value. As a result, using a more broadly defined user population, TWTP per annum was calculated to be R3481987 (median bid) and R10298688 (mean bid). Management of natural resources should be informed by values that reflect efficient balances, so as to obtain the most efficient use of them (Trupie 2008). Polluted water inflows into South Africa’s estuaries are a threat to their biodiversity. Healthy estuarine ecosystems are essential for the maintenance of biodiversity and human well-being (Water Assessment Programme Report 2006: 15). As a result, this study recommends that a project be implemented by the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality to improve water quality in the Swartkops estuary.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
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