The impact of public spending on economic growth, employment and poverty reduction in South Africa
- Authors: Kavese, Kambale
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Expenditures, Public -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa Labor economics -- South Africa Employment (Economic theory) Poor -- Employment -- South Africa South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , DPhil
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/39940 , vital:35570
- Description: This study seeks to assess the effect of public spending on economic growth, employment, and poverty reduction. The co-existence of a sound fiscal policy and a substantial government expenditure but insignificant returns in terms of social development suggests the potential of a dilemma that needs to be investigated, and to reflect on the dynamics of selected marginalised groups of people and marginalised areas. Hence, the “social inclusion” strategy of the RDP in 1994, and the “inclusive economy” strategy of the NDP in 2014 were implemented with one single objective in mind, that is to narrow the gaps associated with the legacy of apartheid. Despite the implantation of government plans like the RDP and recently the NDP, and regardless of the effective use of fiscal policy, low growth has continued during the post-recession era; unemployment and inequality have persistently remained at high levels. This paradox has led to controversies around fiscal policy’s dual role of stimulating economic growth and income redistribution. To achieve the research objective, the study employs four types of empirical techniques: the nonlinear autoregressive distributive lag (N-ARDL) cointegration model; the economy-wide Leontief approach calibrated on the supply and use tables (dynamic SUT model); a partial general equilibrium approach based on the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM model) used for micro-simulations; and lastly a contemporaneous dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to assess the effect of fiscal policy on macroeconomic and socioeconomic variables. The study found that during the post-recession era, expansionary fiscal policy had a positive but minute effect on growth, employment and poverty reduction. The effect of government spending has had a minimal effect on historically marginalised groups of people and marginalised areas. This is why a tortoise pace in reducing poverty and inequality has persisted. So, the study recommends that governments should follow a priorities-based government spending policy which fits well with the current situation of the country. Moreover, South Africa needs to adopt international standards and best practices of “science-based strategic” rather than that of “evidence-based strategy” and ensure that only programmes that have proved to be effective be financed in the fiscal budget.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
- Authors: Kavese, Kambale
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Expenditures, Public -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa Labor economics -- South Africa Employment (Economic theory) Poor -- Employment -- South Africa South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , DPhil
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/39940 , vital:35570
- Description: This study seeks to assess the effect of public spending on economic growth, employment, and poverty reduction. The co-existence of a sound fiscal policy and a substantial government expenditure but insignificant returns in terms of social development suggests the potential of a dilemma that needs to be investigated, and to reflect on the dynamics of selected marginalised groups of people and marginalised areas. Hence, the “social inclusion” strategy of the RDP in 1994, and the “inclusive economy” strategy of the NDP in 2014 were implemented with one single objective in mind, that is to narrow the gaps associated with the legacy of apartheid. Despite the implantation of government plans like the RDP and recently the NDP, and regardless of the effective use of fiscal policy, low growth has continued during the post-recession era; unemployment and inequality have persistently remained at high levels. This paradox has led to controversies around fiscal policy’s dual role of stimulating economic growth and income redistribution. To achieve the research objective, the study employs four types of empirical techniques: the nonlinear autoregressive distributive lag (N-ARDL) cointegration model; the economy-wide Leontief approach calibrated on the supply and use tables (dynamic SUT model); a partial general equilibrium approach based on the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM model) used for micro-simulations; and lastly a contemporaneous dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to assess the effect of fiscal policy on macroeconomic and socioeconomic variables. The study found that during the post-recession era, expansionary fiscal policy had a positive but minute effect on growth, employment and poverty reduction. The effect of government spending has had a minimal effect on historically marginalised groups of people and marginalised areas. This is why a tortoise pace in reducing poverty and inequality has persisted. So, the study recommends that governments should follow a priorities-based government spending policy which fits well with the current situation of the country. Moreover, South Africa needs to adopt international standards and best practices of “science-based strategic” rather than that of “evidence-based strategy” and ensure that only programmes that have proved to be effective be financed in the fiscal budget.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
Stratigraphic characterisation of the Collingham formation in the context of shale gas from a borehole (SFT 2) near Jansenville, Eastern Cape, South Africa
- Authors: Black, Dawn Ebony
- Date: 2015
- Subjects: Geology, Stratigraphic , Formations (Geology) -- South Africa , Collingham formation
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
- Identifier: vital:10676 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/d1021148
- Description: This study is an extensive lithological, petrographical, mineralogical and geochemical description of fresh Collingham Formation core samples collected from borehole SFT 2, located on the farm Slangfontein, south of Jansenville in the Eastern Cape, South Africa. The borehole, drilled to 295 m on the northerly limb of a shallow westerly plunging syncline, intersected the lower Ecca Group rocks of the Ripon, Collingham, Whitehill and Prince Albert Formations and terminated in the upper Dwyka Group. A comprehensive log and stratigraphic column were compiled for the Collingham Formation and fresh core samples were analysed using X-Ray Diffraction (“XRD”), X-Ray Fluorescence (“XRF”), mercury porosimetry, and Total Organic Carbon (“TOC”). Thin section microscopy and Scanning Electron Microscopy (“SEM”) analyses were carried out on selected samples of core from borehole SFT 2. The matrix supported, massive to laminated lithological units of the Collingham Formation are interpreted as detrital, terrigenous sediments. These sediments are composed of intercalated fine-grained, poorly sorted, non-fissile mudstone; fine- to very fine-grained, predominantly pyroclastic airfall tephra; and less common fine-grained sandstones. Sediments of the Collingham Formation are considered to be immature, composed primarily of clay and aluminosilicates. The predominance of a clay fraction and aluminosilicates in mudstone samples is indicated by elevated K2O/Al2O3 ratio values, and the relationship of Zr, Al2O3 and TiO2. The presence of glauconite within the Collingham Formation indicates deposition in a mildly alkaline, slightly reducing marine environment. Rb/K ratio values (1.9 – 2.3 x 10-3) indicate brackish to slightly marine conditions, while low Zr/Rb ratio values indicate a low hydro-energy environment, with stable bottom water conditions. Hf and Nb concentrations indicate that detrital input was greatest during the deposition of tuffaceous units; while stable mineral assemblages and a low Fe2O3/K2O ratio values indicate deposition close to the source. A variation in Si/Ca values indicate times when sediments were affected by turbidity, interspersed with times of relative quiescence. The predominance of K2O over Na2O indicates that the Collingham Formation is alkali-rich, while SiO2/Al2O3 ratio values and the relationship of Zr, Al2O3 and TiO2 indicate that sediments are immature. In the lower portion of the formation, non-sulphidic, anoxic conditions are indicated by Mn/Al, V/(V+Ni), V/Cr ratio values, the Fe-Mn- V content, and the correlation between V and TOC. The upper portion of the formation is considered dysoxic, due to the presence and distribution of pyrite framboids, which indicate a fluctuating O2 level, likely indicating deposition at the interface between anoxic and slightly more oxic conditions. V/Cr ratio values indicate that the O2 regime was lowest during the deposition of the mudstones. The Chemical Index of Alteration (“CIA”) indicates a consistent weathering regime throughout the deposition of the Collingham Formation, associated with a temperate climate on the interface between glacial and tropical conditions. Although an anoxic and low hydro-energy environment is generally favourable for hydrocarbon accumulation, the Collingham Formation contains low levels of Total Organic Carbon (well below 0.9 per cent) and low porosities (ranging from 0.35 per cent to a maximum of 2.22 per cent), both of which are characteristic of a poor source for gas accumulation. Due to the laminate nature, permeability and fracturability of the Collingham Formation, there is the potential that the formation may form a good sealing sequence to the potentially gas-rich Whitehill Formation below. The metamorphic impact related to the Cape Orogeny (± 250 Ma), and reflected in the textures of the minerals making up the sediments of the Collingham Formation, suggests the enhancement in the sealing efficiency of this formation.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2015
- Authors: Black, Dawn Ebony
- Date: 2015
- Subjects: Geology, Stratigraphic , Formations (Geology) -- South Africa , Collingham formation
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
- Identifier: vital:10676 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/d1021148
- Description: This study is an extensive lithological, petrographical, mineralogical and geochemical description of fresh Collingham Formation core samples collected from borehole SFT 2, located on the farm Slangfontein, south of Jansenville in the Eastern Cape, South Africa. The borehole, drilled to 295 m on the northerly limb of a shallow westerly plunging syncline, intersected the lower Ecca Group rocks of the Ripon, Collingham, Whitehill and Prince Albert Formations and terminated in the upper Dwyka Group. A comprehensive log and stratigraphic column were compiled for the Collingham Formation and fresh core samples were analysed using X-Ray Diffraction (“XRD”), X-Ray Fluorescence (“XRF”), mercury porosimetry, and Total Organic Carbon (“TOC”). Thin section microscopy and Scanning Electron Microscopy (“SEM”) analyses were carried out on selected samples of core from borehole SFT 2. The matrix supported, massive to laminated lithological units of the Collingham Formation are interpreted as detrital, terrigenous sediments. These sediments are composed of intercalated fine-grained, poorly sorted, non-fissile mudstone; fine- to very fine-grained, predominantly pyroclastic airfall tephra; and less common fine-grained sandstones. Sediments of the Collingham Formation are considered to be immature, composed primarily of clay and aluminosilicates. The predominance of a clay fraction and aluminosilicates in mudstone samples is indicated by elevated K2O/Al2O3 ratio values, and the relationship of Zr, Al2O3 and TiO2. The presence of glauconite within the Collingham Formation indicates deposition in a mildly alkaline, slightly reducing marine environment. Rb/K ratio values (1.9 – 2.3 x 10-3) indicate brackish to slightly marine conditions, while low Zr/Rb ratio values indicate a low hydro-energy environment, with stable bottom water conditions. Hf and Nb concentrations indicate that detrital input was greatest during the deposition of tuffaceous units; while stable mineral assemblages and a low Fe2O3/K2O ratio values indicate deposition close to the source. A variation in Si/Ca values indicate times when sediments were affected by turbidity, interspersed with times of relative quiescence. The predominance of K2O over Na2O indicates that the Collingham Formation is alkali-rich, while SiO2/Al2O3 ratio values and the relationship of Zr, Al2O3 and TiO2 indicate that sediments are immature. In the lower portion of the formation, non-sulphidic, anoxic conditions are indicated by Mn/Al, V/(V+Ni), V/Cr ratio values, the Fe-Mn- V content, and the correlation between V and TOC. The upper portion of the formation is considered dysoxic, due to the presence and distribution of pyrite framboids, which indicate a fluctuating O2 level, likely indicating deposition at the interface between anoxic and slightly more oxic conditions. V/Cr ratio values indicate that the O2 regime was lowest during the deposition of the mudstones. The Chemical Index of Alteration (“CIA”) indicates a consistent weathering regime throughout the deposition of the Collingham Formation, associated with a temperate climate on the interface between glacial and tropical conditions. Although an anoxic and low hydro-energy environment is generally favourable for hydrocarbon accumulation, the Collingham Formation contains low levels of Total Organic Carbon (well below 0.9 per cent) and low porosities (ranging from 0.35 per cent to a maximum of 2.22 per cent), both of which are characteristic of a poor source for gas accumulation. Due to the laminate nature, permeability and fracturability of the Collingham Formation, there is the potential that the formation may form a good sealing sequence to the potentially gas-rich Whitehill Formation below. The metamorphic impact related to the Cape Orogeny (± 250 Ma), and reflected in the textures of the minerals making up the sediments of the Collingham Formation, suggests the enhancement in the sealing efficiency of this formation.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2015
Factors affecting survivorship of loggerhead (Caretta caretta) and leatherback (Dermochelys coriacea) sea turtles of South Africa
- Authors: De Wet, Anje
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Loggerhead turtle -- South Africa , Leatherback turtle -- South Africa , Sea turtles -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
- Identifier: vital:10686 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/d1007900 , Loggerhead turtle -- South Africa , Leatherback turtle -- South Africa , Sea turtles -- South Africa
- Description: Loggerhead (Caretta caretta) and leatherback (Dermochelys coriacea) sea turtles as well as their eggs and hatchlings have been protected on their nesting beach in South Africa (SA) since 1963. Both nesting populations were expected to show similar trends in recovery following the application of identical protection and conservation measures. The loggerhead nesting population has responded favourably to these protection efforts. In contrast, the leatherback nesting population showed an initial increase but is currently stable. The reason for this difference in response is thought to be due to differential offshore mortality of these two species. This prompted an investigation into the different sources of sea turtle mortality in the South Western Indian Ocean (SWIO). Specific aims were to identify and quantify sources of loggerhead and leatherback mortality on nesting beaches as well as in the oceans. Reasonable survivorship at all age classes is important to ensure recruitment of new nesting individuals into sea turtle populations. Mortality of nests, eggs per nest and hatchlings were quantified over two seasons for the loggerheads and leatherbacks nesting in SA. The beach was patrolled on foot to encounter and record females emerging from the ocean and later, hatchlings from their nests. The nests were then monitored during the incubation period and excavated once hatched. The fates of 925 nests were determined during these two nesting seasons (2009/2010 and 2010/2011). The main source of loggerhead and leatherback nest destruction was predation (8.6 percent and 15.7 percent respectively) followed by nest erosion (2.2 percent and 6.3 percent respectively). Overall nest success was high but higher for loggerheads (89 percent) than for leatherbacks (78 percent). The main cause of egg mortality for both species was early developmental arrest, followed by predation by ants and ghost crabs. Hatchlings en route to the sea were almost exclusively predated by ghost crabs (4.2 percent of emerged loggerhead hatchlings and 3.2 percent of emerged leatherback hatchlings). It appears that both species benefit from the coastal conservation efforts. When sea turtles leave the nesting beach, either as hatchlings or adults, conservation and monitoring becomes more difficult and sea turtles are exposed to a multitude of threats, including anthropogenic threats. Age classes tend to be spatially separated due to different habitat and dietary requirements. The type of threat sea turtles are exposed to thus depends on the current age class. Offshore sources of mortality in the SWIO were identified and where possible loggerhead and leatherback mortality was quantified and mapped spatially. Loggerheads were mostly exposed to and had the highest mortality in the artisanal fisheries in the SWIO (> 1000 per annum), inshore trawling (ca. 41 per annum), shark nets (protective gill nets) (21.6 ± 6.7 per annum) and the pelagic longline fishery (5.0 ± 4.4 per annum). In contrast, leatherbacks with a pelagic lifestyle, were mostly exposed to pelagic longline fisheries (7.8 ± 7.8 per annum). A spatial analysis of fishing activities indicated that leatherback home ranges overlapped 41percent with pelagic longline fishing activity in the SA EEZ, whereas the overlap between pelagic longliners and loggerhead home ranges was 29 percent. The quantified sources of mortality provide some explanation for the trend in the loggerhead nesting population but not the trend in the leatherback nesting population. Hatchling survivorship to adulthood was estimated to determine the viability of the two nesting populations as well as to determine whether offshore mortality was responsible for the difference in recovery of the two populations. Loggerhead hatchling survivorship to adulthood was estimated at between 2 and 10 per 1000 hatchlings, the minimum requirement for an increasing population. The adopted sophisticated model shows that leatherbacks have a survival rate of 5 to 10 per 1 000 hatchlings. However, this suggests that the population is increasing, but the leatherback population is stable. Perhaps the age to maturity of SA leatherbacks is greater than 12 years, or fisheries-related mortality affects younger age classes than initially thought. It is therefore recommended that the turtle monitoring area is extended to include other potential nesting grounds. In addition, observer or monitoring programs for commercial as well as artisanal fisheries needs to be extended throughout the SWIO to quantify sea turtle mortality. Ultimately a comprehensive multi-regional approach is required for the conservation of these highly migratory species.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
- Authors: De Wet, Anje
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Loggerhead turtle -- South Africa , Leatherback turtle -- South Africa , Sea turtles -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
- Identifier: vital:10686 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/d1007900 , Loggerhead turtle -- South Africa , Leatherback turtle -- South Africa , Sea turtles -- South Africa
- Description: Loggerhead (Caretta caretta) and leatherback (Dermochelys coriacea) sea turtles as well as their eggs and hatchlings have been protected on their nesting beach in South Africa (SA) since 1963. Both nesting populations were expected to show similar trends in recovery following the application of identical protection and conservation measures. The loggerhead nesting population has responded favourably to these protection efforts. In contrast, the leatherback nesting population showed an initial increase but is currently stable. The reason for this difference in response is thought to be due to differential offshore mortality of these two species. This prompted an investigation into the different sources of sea turtle mortality in the South Western Indian Ocean (SWIO). Specific aims were to identify and quantify sources of loggerhead and leatherback mortality on nesting beaches as well as in the oceans. Reasonable survivorship at all age classes is important to ensure recruitment of new nesting individuals into sea turtle populations. Mortality of nests, eggs per nest and hatchlings were quantified over two seasons for the loggerheads and leatherbacks nesting in SA. The beach was patrolled on foot to encounter and record females emerging from the ocean and later, hatchlings from their nests. The nests were then monitored during the incubation period and excavated once hatched. The fates of 925 nests were determined during these two nesting seasons (2009/2010 and 2010/2011). The main source of loggerhead and leatherback nest destruction was predation (8.6 percent and 15.7 percent respectively) followed by nest erosion (2.2 percent and 6.3 percent respectively). Overall nest success was high but higher for loggerheads (89 percent) than for leatherbacks (78 percent). The main cause of egg mortality for both species was early developmental arrest, followed by predation by ants and ghost crabs. Hatchlings en route to the sea were almost exclusively predated by ghost crabs (4.2 percent of emerged loggerhead hatchlings and 3.2 percent of emerged leatherback hatchlings). It appears that both species benefit from the coastal conservation efforts. When sea turtles leave the nesting beach, either as hatchlings or adults, conservation and monitoring becomes more difficult and sea turtles are exposed to a multitude of threats, including anthropogenic threats. Age classes tend to be spatially separated due to different habitat and dietary requirements. The type of threat sea turtles are exposed to thus depends on the current age class. Offshore sources of mortality in the SWIO were identified and where possible loggerhead and leatherback mortality was quantified and mapped spatially. Loggerheads were mostly exposed to and had the highest mortality in the artisanal fisheries in the SWIO (> 1000 per annum), inshore trawling (ca. 41 per annum), shark nets (protective gill nets) (21.6 ± 6.7 per annum) and the pelagic longline fishery (5.0 ± 4.4 per annum). In contrast, leatherbacks with a pelagic lifestyle, were mostly exposed to pelagic longline fisheries (7.8 ± 7.8 per annum). A spatial analysis of fishing activities indicated that leatherback home ranges overlapped 41percent with pelagic longline fishing activity in the SA EEZ, whereas the overlap between pelagic longliners and loggerhead home ranges was 29 percent. The quantified sources of mortality provide some explanation for the trend in the loggerhead nesting population but not the trend in the leatherback nesting population. Hatchling survivorship to adulthood was estimated to determine the viability of the two nesting populations as well as to determine whether offshore mortality was responsible for the difference in recovery of the two populations. Loggerhead hatchling survivorship to adulthood was estimated at between 2 and 10 per 1000 hatchlings, the minimum requirement for an increasing population. The adopted sophisticated model shows that leatherbacks have a survival rate of 5 to 10 per 1 000 hatchlings. However, this suggests that the population is increasing, but the leatherback population is stable. Perhaps the age to maturity of SA leatherbacks is greater than 12 years, or fisheries-related mortality affects younger age classes than initially thought. It is therefore recommended that the turtle monitoring area is extended to include other potential nesting grounds. In addition, observer or monitoring programs for commercial as well as artisanal fisheries needs to be extended throughout the SWIO to quantify sea turtle mortality. Ultimately a comprehensive multi-regional approach is required for the conservation of these highly migratory species.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
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