Evaluating the impact of energy policies on sustainable development in South Africa
- Authors: Julius, Ibitoye Oyebanji
- Date: 2018
- Subjects: Energy policy -- South Africa , Sustainable development -- South Africa Renewable energy sources -- South Africa Sustainable living -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , DPhil
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/30440 , vital:30944
- Description: The unachieved targets of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) at the end of 2015 by some developing countries including South Africa, lead to the evolution of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Ensuring access to sustainable, affordable, and modern energy is one of the 17 SDGs that the countries are expected to achieve before the end of 2030. Green growth is an important strategy for attaining this goal and a pathway to achieving the other goals. Therefore, an empirical study of the impact of energy policies on sustainable development is pertinent. Despite the importance of such research, there exists a gap in the literature relating to green growth and sustainable development from the SDGs point of view. This study fills the existing lacuna by developing an intertemporal holistic model which allows a study of the impact of energy policies on sustainable development in relation to the SDGs. Specifically, this thesis employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Toda-Yamamoto approaches to analyse the long-run relationship and direction of causality respectively between green growth policies and sustainable development in South Africa from 1984 to 2016. This research provides insights into the importance of green growth for factors such as deforestation, fuel exports, energy imports and agricultural development, thus adding to the existing literature on the impact of renewable energy on a country’s social, environmental and economic conditions. Results from the analysis of the long-run relationship between green growth and macroeconomic variables, indicate a positive unidirectional relationship between changes in green growth policies and gross capital formation. This finding suggests that adopting green growth policies leads to increased investments. In contrast, green growth was found to have a negative effect on national income (gross domestic product). However, the Granger causality tests do not establish causality between these variables. Although green growth policies stimulate investments, high start-up costs associated with the implementation of these policies may mean that the resultant higher investments are yet to be translated to higher income levels in the South African economy. The findings indicate a boost in the South African balance of payment within the study period iv iv as evidenced by the positive long-run relationship between green growth policies and fuel exports. Additionally, the results indicate that green growth energy policies have assisted in improving the resilience to international oil price shocks as shown in the negative and significant long-run relationship between green growth and energy imports. With regard to environmental variables, results suggest a substitutability effect between green growth policies and the consumption of non-renewable energy. However, no evidence is found on the impact of green growth policies on the levels of deforestation and carbon dioxide(CO2) emissions, as well as natural resource depletion. In relation to the social variables, adoption of green growth policies was found to lead to improved educational quality, with causality running in both directions. This finding supports the feedback hypothesis. Similarly, green growth policies had a positive impact on agricultural development, again with causality established in both directions. The outcome of the long-run relationship between green energy consumption and unemployment shows that the green growth policies is yet to have a significant impact on unemployment reduction in South Africa. Green growth also has an insignificant and indirect relationship with GDP per capita; this result was affirmed by the absence of causality between GDP per capita and green energy consumption. This research not only makes contributions to the literature on the relevance of green growth policies for achieving economic, social and environmental sustainability, it also suggests possible policy implications which highlight the need for adoption and continued implementation of green growth policies in developing countries such as South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2018
- Authors: Julius, Ibitoye Oyebanji
- Date: 2018
- Subjects: Energy policy -- South Africa , Sustainable development -- South Africa Renewable energy sources -- South Africa Sustainable living -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , DPhil
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/30440 , vital:30944
- Description: The unachieved targets of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) at the end of 2015 by some developing countries including South Africa, lead to the evolution of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Ensuring access to sustainable, affordable, and modern energy is one of the 17 SDGs that the countries are expected to achieve before the end of 2030. Green growth is an important strategy for attaining this goal and a pathway to achieving the other goals. Therefore, an empirical study of the impact of energy policies on sustainable development is pertinent. Despite the importance of such research, there exists a gap in the literature relating to green growth and sustainable development from the SDGs point of view. This study fills the existing lacuna by developing an intertemporal holistic model which allows a study of the impact of energy policies on sustainable development in relation to the SDGs. Specifically, this thesis employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Toda-Yamamoto approaches to analyse the long-run relationship and direction of causality respectively between green growth policies and sustainable development in South Africa from 1984 to 2016. This research provides insights into the importance of green growth for factors such as deforestation, fuel exports, energy imports and agricultural development, thus adding to the existing literature on the impact of renewable energy on a country’s social, environmental and economic conditions. Results from the analysis of the long-run relationship between green growth and macroeconomic variables, indicate a positive unidirectional relationship between changes in green growth policies and gross capital formation. This finding suggests that adopting green growth policies leads to increased investments. In contrast, green growth was found to have a negative effect on national income (gross domestic product). However, the Granger causality tests do not establish causality between these variables. Although green growth policies stimulate investments, high start-up costs associated with the implementation of these policies may mean that the resultant higher investments are yet to be translated to higher income levels in the South African economy. The findings indicate a boost in the South African balance of payment within the study period iv iv as evidenced by the positive long-run relationship between green growth policies and fuel exports. Additionally, the results indicate that green growth energy policies have assisted in improving the resilience to international oil price shocks as shown in the negative and significant long-run relationship between green growth and energy imports. With regard to environmental variables, results suggest a substitutability effect between green growth policies and the consumption of non-renewable energy. However, no evidence is found on the impact of green growth policies on the levels of deforestation and carbon dioxide(CO2) emissions, as well as natural resource depletion. In relation to the social variables, adoption of green growth policies was found to lead to improved educational quality, with causality running in both directions. This finding supports the feedback hypothesis. Similarly, green growth policies had a positive impact on agricultural development, again with causality established in both directions. The outcome of the long-run relationship between green energy consumption and unemployment shows that the green growth policies is yet to have a significant impact on unemployment reduction in South Africa. Green growth also has an insignificant and indirect relationship with GDP per capita; this result was affirmed by the absence of causality between GDP per capita and green energy consumption. This research not only makes contributions to the literature on the relevance of green growth policies for achieving economic, social and environmental sustainability, it also suggests possible policy implications which highlight the need for adoption and continued implementation of green growth policies in developing countries such as South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2018
Measuring the elasticity of electricity demand in South Africa: implications for future demand and supply
- Authors: Kosiorek, Sebastian
- Date: 2018
- Subjects: Electric power consumption -- South Africa , Electric power distribution -- South Africa , Electric power production -- South Africa , Electric power failures -- South Africa , Electric utilities -- Law and legislation -- South Africa , Autoregression (Statistics) , Renewable energy sources -- South Africa , Energy policy -- South Africa , Integrated Resource Plan
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/62472 , vital:28196
- Description: A key economic issue for government is the ability to effectively match electricity supply to electricity demand, because of the substantial economic losses in the case of where there is too little supply, or the waste of scarce resources where there is too much supply. In the case of South Africa, this issue, the importance of which was highlighted by the power shortages and associated “rolling blackouts” experience in 2008, has led to the creation of the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) as a means to decide how energy policy will be developed. Recently, however, the IRP 2010 and its subsequent 2013 and 2016 (draft) updates have been criticised as being too optimistic in regards to their projections of economic growth and electricity demand, making the recommendations in these documents to be flawed. Using monthly data from January 1990 to May 2017, together with Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing for cointegration, this paper measures changes in the elasticity of electricity demand as a result of the massive price hikes over the past decade. Thereafter, the implications of changed electricity as well as possibly lower Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in the future for forecasts of possible future demand for electricity are examined. From these revised forecasts, it is possible to make appropriate recommendations in regards to electricity supply policy for South Africa including what possible energy mix is needed as well as the requirements for creating new supply to meet possible future demand. It is concluded that future electricity demand is likely to be much lower than forecast in the IRP 2010 and IRP 2013 documents. The degree of uncertainty in electricity demand growth suggests that large-scale increases in supply capacity taking years to construct, such as coal or nuclear, should be avoided. Small, incremental increases in supply that are able to come on stream swiftly, such as gas, solar and wind power, are likely to be more appropriate for meeting South Africa’s future needs.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2018
- Authors: Kosiorek, Sebastian
- Date: 2018
- Subjects: Electric power consumption -- South Africa , Electric power distribution -- South Africa , Electric power production -- South Africa , Electric power failures -- South Africa , Electric utilities -- Law and legislation -- South Africa , Autoregression (Statistics) , Renewable energy sources -- South Africa , Energy policy -- South Africa , Integrated Resource Plan
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/62472 , vital:28196
- Description: A key economic issue for government is the ability to effectively match electricity supply to electricity demand, because of the substantial economic losses in the case of where there is too little supply, or the waste of scarce resources where there is too much supply. In the case of South Africa, this issue, the importance of which was highlighted by the power shortages and associated “rolling blackouts” experience in 2008, has led to the creation of the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) as a means to decide how energy policy will be developed. Recently, however, the IRP 2010 and its subsequent 2013 and 2016 (draft) updates have been criticised as being too optimistic in regards to their projections of economic growth and electricity demand, making the recommendations in these documents to be flawed. Using monthly data from January 1990 to May 2017, together with Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing for cointegration, this paper measures changes in the elasticity of electricity demand as a result of the massive price hikes over the past decade. Thereafter, the implications of changed electricity as well as possibly lower Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in the future for forecasts of possible future demand for electricity are examined. From these revised forecasts, it is possible to make appropriate recommendations in regards to electricity supply policy for South Africa including what possible energy mix is needed as well as the requirements for creating new supply to meet possible future demand. It is concluded that future electricity demand is likely to be much lower than forecast in the IRP 2010 and IRP 2013 documents. The degree of uncertainty in electricity demand growth suggests that large-scale increases in supply capacity taking years to construct, such as coal or nuclear, should be avoided. Small, incremental increases in supply that are able to come on stream swiftly, such as gas, solar and wind power, are likely to be more appropriate for meeting South Africa’s future needs.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2018
Private sector participation in renewable energy: a survey of listed companies in South Africa
- Authors: Eno, Venessa Asik Awo
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Renewable energy sources -- South Africa , Energy policy -- South Africa , Public-private sector cooperation -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MA
- Identifier: vital:9114 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/d1015636
- Description: Although renewable energy technology has received much attention over recent years the depletion of known fossil fuel reserves and the volatility of international fuel prices require that society looks beyond the current coal-dominated electricity generation methods. Investment in renewable energy and energy efficiency is important to reduce the negative economic, social and environmental impacts of energy production and consumption in South Africa. Currently, renewable energy contributes relatively little to primary energy and even less to the consumption of commercial energy. The challenge of transforming entire economies is enormous, especially if a country is as fossil-fuel-based and emission-intensive as South Africa. However, as it is already facing climate change impacts in an increasingly carbon constrained world; South Africa must drastically reduce its greenhouse gas emission intensity soon. The South African electricity sector is a vital part of the economy and at the same time contributes most to the emission problem. Transforming this sector is therefore urgently needed. First steps have been taken to enhance energy efficiency and promote renewable energy, but they have failed to have any large-scale effects. The two major barriers to investments in renewable energy technologies are based in the South African energy innovation system and its inherent power structures and in the economics of renewable energy technologies. Subsequently the private sector will have to play a significant role in closing the human resources gap by providing funds and expertise. Furthermore, the creation of employment opportunities and actively promoting structural change in the economy are seen, especially in industrialized countries, as goals that support the promotion of renewable energy. Moreover, with more support and assistance from the government and partnership with the private sector will be of immense help to achieve renewable energy goals.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
- Authors: Eno, Venessa Asik Awo
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Renewable energy sources -- South Africa , Energy policy -- South Africa , Public-private sector cooperation -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MA
- Identifier: vital:9114 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/d1015636
- Description: Although renewable energy technology has received much attention over recent years the depletion of known fossil fuel reserves and the volatility of international fuel prices require that society looks beyond the current coal-dominated electricity generation methods. Investment in renewable energy and energy efficiency is important to reduce the negative economic, social and environmental impacts of energy production and consumption in South Africa. Currently, renewable energy contributes relatively little to primary energy and even less to the consumption of commercial energy. The challenge of transforming entire economies is enormous, especially if a country is as fossil-fuel-based and emission-intensive as South Africa. However, as it is already facing climate change impacts in an increasingly carbon constrained world; South Africa must drastically reduce its greenhouse gas emission intensity soon. The South African electricity sector is a vital part of the economy and at the same time contributes most to the emission problem. Transforming this sector is therefore urgently needed. First steps have been taken to enhance energy efficiency and promote renewable energy, but they have failed to have any large-scale effects. The two major barriers to investments in renewable energy technologies are based in the South African energy innovation system and its inherent power structures and in the economics of renewable energy technologies. Subsequently the private sector will have to play a significant role in closing the human resources gap by providing funds and expertise. Furthermore, the creation of employment opportunities and actively promoting structural change in the economy are seen, especially in industrialized countries, as goals that support the promotion of renewable energy. Moreover, with more support and assistance from the government and partnership with the private sector will be of immense help to achieve renewable energy goals.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
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