The future of banking in South Africa towards 2055: disruptive innovation scenarios
- Authors: Koekemoer, Jonathan
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Finance -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , DPhil
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/40577 , vital:36184
- Description: The research effort developed four possible scenarios for the future of banking in South Africa towards 2055. The scenarios sought to stimulate thought on the possible, probable, plausible and preferred effects of disruptive innovation and regulation in the South African banking sector. The scenarios were developed in strict accordance with the 5 stages, and 9 steps, of the scenario-based planning process of futures studies. A conceptual futures studies model for banking in South Africa was developed to guide and clarify the way in which the research on South African banking can be integrated into the body of existing futures studies theory. The research study began with a comprehensive environmental scan, where various megatrends and driving forces are identified. A PESTEL analysis provided a deeper understanding of the driving forces. A Real-Time Delphi study was conducted in order to validate and prioritise the megatrends and driving forces that emerged. As a result, the research study was able to present four plausible scenarios that provide a better understanding of the future of banking in South Africa over the decades to come. The research presents banking as a complex, multi-faceted sector that is heavily influenced by advances in technology. The Real-Time Delphi research allowed the aggregation of expert knowledge. This is used as a guide to assist decision-makers and industry leaders in the adoption of appropriate business models and strategies towards a preferred future state. The research defined the Integrated Vision as the preferred future state for the South African banking sector towards 2055. The study closes a research gap where current strategies deviate from proposed strategies that drive the achievement of the Integrated Vision by 2055. Finally, contextually aligned practical recommendations are provided to assist decision-makers, industry leaders and change agents to work towards a preferable future state. The proposed recommendations are placed into broad categories of innovation, financial inclusion and collaborative regulatory relationships. The research makes a meaningful contribution to the South African banking sector by introducing a forward-looking, systems-thinking approach to disruptive innovation and regulation in the South African context.
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- Date Issued: 2019
Monetary policy transmission in South Africa: the prime rate-demand for credit phase
- Authors: Lehobo, Limakatso
- Date: 2006
- Subjects: South African Reserve Bank , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa , Bank loans -- South Africa , Financial institutions -- South Africa , Finance -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1128 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1020850
- Description: A voluminous literature attempts to explain the various channels of the monetary policy transmission mechanism through which central banks ultimately achieve price stability. However, most research focuses on interest rate pass-through and the demand for money phase, while there is limited research on the demand for credit. This study endeavours to contribute to the understanding of this neglected phase of monetary policy transmission by exploring the response of the real demand for bank credit by the private sector to changes in the real prime rate from 1990:1 to 2004:4 in South Africa. Firstly, the behaviour of the real prime rate in relation to the repo rate is explored using graphical analysis. The study observes that an increase in the repo rate causes an increase in the real prime rate, such that there is always a margin of three or four percentage points between the two rates. Secondly, using secondary data, the Johansen methodology is used to determine the relationship between the demand for bank credit and its determinants (GDP, inflation, real prime rate and real yield on government bonds). Two co-integrating relationships are found. The Gaussian errors from one co-integrating vector are used to model the Vector Error Correction Model, which provides the short-run dynamics and the long-run results, through the use of Eviews 5 software. The results of the study show that while all other variables are negatively related to the demand for bank credit in the long-run, GDP has a positive influence. In the short-run, yield on government bonds and inflation coefficients depict a positive association, while the coefficients of real prime rate and GDP are negative. The error correction coefficient is -0.32, which implies that a 32% adjustment to equilibrium happens in the demand for bank credit in a quarter and that the complete adjustment takes about three quarters to complete. Thirdly, the generalised impulse responses results indicate that the impact on the real prime rate affects the demand for bank credit from the first quarter. The study concludes that the real prime rate has a negative impact on the demand for credit both in the short-run and long-run.
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- Date Issued: 2006
The role of bank finance in small firm growth : a case study
- Authors: Musengi, Sandra
- Date: 2003
- Subjects: Banks and banking -- South Africa , Finance -- South Africa , Small business -- South Africa -- Finance , Small business -- South Africa -- Growth -- Case studies , Entrepreneurship -- South Africa , New business enterprises -- South Africa , Bank loans -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1176 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002793 , Banks and banking -- South Africa , Finance -- South Africa , Small business -- South Africa -- Finance , Small business -- South Africa -- Growth -- Case studies , Entrepreneurship -- South Africa , New business enterprises -- South Africa , Bank loans -- South Africa
- Description: The debate concerning small firm access to finance continues. The proliferation of research of the issue underlines the importance attached in promoting a strong entrepreneurial culture within a country. Small firms are significant to economic growth if they are growing. Central to this significance is ascertaining the role of finance and in particular bank finance in accelerating small growth potential. The case study, through its ontological, epistemological and methodological position, draws on a document review and interview material from small firm owners and key informants to explore the role of bank finance in small firm growth. Case study evidence reveals that small firm owners do not intend to finance firm growth with bank finance but prefer to finance growth with internally generated funds. The owners indicate that non-financial and behavioural factors, such as, maintaining decision-making control, experience accessing bank finance, the perception of the banking relationship and growth aspirations of owners may be more important in dertermining the finance structure for firm growth. From the bank's perspective, findings suggest that risk assessment, financial viability of the enterprise and provision of collateral are more important in the lending decisions; findings supported by an analysis of selected documents. The small sample of small firm owners, bank representatives, experts and documents makes it difficult to generalize the findings. However, the findings are significant because exploring the issue from different perspectives presents invaluable insights, which can be investigated further to assist small firm owners, to develop finance products geared for small firm operations, and in the development of the knowledge base on finance-related issues in the South African context.
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- Date Issued: 2003