Revenue, welfare and trade effects of EU FTA on South Africa
- Authors: Guei, Kore Marc Antoine
- Date: 2015
- Subjects: Commercial treaties , Free trade -- European Union countries , Free trade -- South Africa , European Union countries -- Commercial policy
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/6137 , vital:21042
- Description: The study used the partial equilibrium WITS-SMART Simulation Model to assess the impact of liberalization under the Trade Development and Cooperation Agreement (TDCA) of a free trade area between the EU and South Africa. The findings of the study reveal that total trade effects in South Africa are likely to surge by US$ 1.036 billion with a total welfare valued at US$ 134 million. Dismantling tariffs on all EU goods would be beneficial to consumers through net trade creation. Total trade creation would be US$ 782 million. However, South African producers are likely to contribute a trade diversion of US$ 254 million which has a negative impact on consumer welfare. The country might also experience a revenue loss amounting to US$ 562 million due to the removal of tariffs. On trade, the country’s export and import to the EU is expected to increase by US$ 12.419 million and US$ 1.266 million respectively. To mitigate revenue loss, the country should try to diversify its current tax base.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2015
- Authors: Guei, Kore Marc Antoine
- Date: 2015
- Subjects: Commercial treaties , Free trade -- European Union countries , Free trade -- South Africa , European Union countries -- Commercial policy
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/6137 , vital:21042
- Description: The study used the partial equilibrium WITS-SMART Simulation Model to assess the impact of liberalization under the Trade Development and Cooperation Agreement (TDCA) of a free trade area between the EU and South Africa. The findings of the study reveal that total trade effects in South Africa are likely to surge by US$ 1.036 billion with a total welfare valued at US$ 134 million. Dismantling tariffs on all EU goods would be beneficial to consumers through net trade creation. Total trade creation would be US$ 782 million. However, South African producers are likely to contribute a trade diversion of US$ 254 million which has a negative impact on consumer welfare. The country might also experience a revenue loss amounting to US$ 562 million due to the removal of tariffs. On trade, the country’s export and import to the EU is expected to increase by US$ 12.419 million and US$ 1.266 million respectively. To mitigate revenue loss, the country should try to diversify its current tax base.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2015
Effects of exchange rate volatility on the stock market: a case study of South Africa
- Authors: Mlambo, Courage
- Date: 2013
- Subjects: Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , Currency question -- South Africa , Free trade -- South Africa , Capital movements -- South Africa , Cointegration -- South Africa , Investments, Foreign , International trade , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic policy
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , M Com
- Identifier: vital:11468 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1007125 , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , Currency question -- South Africa , Free trade -- South Africa , Capital movements -- South Africa , Cointegration -- South Africa , Investments, Foreign , International trade , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic policy
- Description: This study assessed the effects of currency volatility on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. An evaluation of literature on exchange rate volatility and stock markets was conducted resulting into specification of an empirical model.The Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedascity (1.1) (GARCH) model was used in establishing the relationship between exchange rate volatility and stock market performance. The study employed monthly South African data for the period 2000 – 2010. The data frequency selected ensured an adequate number of observations. A very weak relationship between currency volatility and the stock market was confirmed. The research finding is supported by previous studies. Prime overdraft rate and total mining production were found to have a negative impact on Market capitalisation. Surprisingly, US interest rates were found to have a positive impact on Market capitalisation. This study recommended that, since the South African stock market is not really exposed to the negative effects of currency volatility, government can use exchange rate as a policy tool to attract foreign portfolio investment. The weak relationship between currency volatility and the stock market suggests that the JSE can be marketed as a safe market for foreign investors. However, investors, bankers and portfolio managers still need to be vigilant in regard to the spillovers from the foreign exchange rate into the stock market. Although there is a weak relationship between rand volatility and the stock market in South Africa, this does not necessarily mean that investors and portfolio managers need not monitor the developments between these two variables.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2013
- Authors: Mlambo, Courage
- Date: 2013
- Subjects: Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , Currency question -- South Africa , Free trade -- South Africa , Capital movements -- South Africa , Cointegration -- South Africa , Investments, Foreign , International trade , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic policy
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , M Com
- Identifier: vital:11468 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1007125 , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , Currency question -- South Africa , Free trade -- South Africa , Capital movements -- South Africa , Cointegration -- South Africa , Investments, Foreign , International trade , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic policy
- Description: This study assessed the effects of currency volatility on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. An evaluation of literature on exchange rate volatility and stock markets was conducted resulting into specification of an empirical model.The Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedascity (1.1) (GARCH) model was used in establishing the relationship between exchange rate volatility and stock market performance. The study employed monthly South African data for the period 2000 – 2010. The data frequency selected ensured an adequate number of observations. A very weak relationship between currency volatility and the stock market was confirmed. The research finding is supported by previous studies. Prime overdraft rate and total mining production were found to have a negative impact on Market capitalisation. Surprisingly, US interest rates were found to have a positive impact on Market capitalisation. This study recommended that, since the South African stock market is not really exposed to the negative effects of currency volatility, government can use exchange rate as a policy tool to attract foreign portfolio investment. The weak relationship between currency volatility and the stock market suggests that the JSE can be marketed as a safe market for foreign investors. However, investors, bankers and portfolio managers still need to be vigilant in regard to the spillovers from the foreign exchange rate into the stock market. Although there is a weak relationship between rand volatility and the stock market in South Africa, this does not necessarily mean that investors and portfolio managers need not monitor the developments between these two variables.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2013
Financial liberalisation and economic growth in South Africa
- Sibanda, Hlanganani Siqondile.
- Authors: Sibanda, Hlanganani Siqondile.
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Finance -- Management , Capital movements -- South Africa , Free trade -- South Africa , Expenditures, Public
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , M Com
- Identifier: vital:11471 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1007131 , Economic development -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Finance -- Management , Capital movements -- South Africa , Free trade -- South Africa , Expenditures, Public
- Description: This study examined the impact of financial liberalisation on economic growth in South Africa. The study used quarterly time series data for the period 1980 to 2010. A vector error correction model was used to determine the short run and long run effects of financial liberalisation on economic growth in South Africa. The other explanatory variables considered in this study were government expenditure, investment ratio, public expenditure on education and trade openness. Results from this study revealed that financial liberalisation, government expenditure and public expenditure on education have a positive impact on economic growth while trade openness negatively affects economic growth in South Africa. Policy recommendations were made using these results.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
- Authors: Sibanda, Hlanganani Siqondile.
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Finance -- Management , Capital movements -- South Africa , Free trade -- South Africa , Expenditures, Public
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , M Com
- Identifier: vital:11471 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1007131 , Economic development -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Finance -- Management , Capital movements -- South Africa , Free trade -- South Africa , Expenditures, Public
- Description: This study examined the impact of financial liberalisation on economic growth in South Africa. The study used quarterly time series data for the period 1980 to 2010. A vector error correction model was used to determine the short run and long run effects of financial liberalisation on economic growth in South Africa. The other explanatory variables considered in this study were government expenditure, investment ratio, public expenditure on education and trade openness. Results from this study revealed that financial liberalisation, government expenditure and public expenditure on education have a positive impact on economic growth while trade openness negatively affects economic growth in South Africa. Policy recommendations were made using these results.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
The impact of capital flows on real exchange rates in South Africa
- Authors: Mishi, Syden
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Capital movements -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Foreign exchange -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Currency question -- South Africa , Saving and investment -- South Africa , Free trade -- South Africa , Anti-inflationary policies -- South Africa , Cointegration -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , M Com
- Identifier: vital:11466 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1007089 , Capital movements -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Foreign exchange -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Currency question -- South Africa , Saving and investment -- South Africa , Free trade -- South Africa , Anti-inflationary policies -- South Africa , Cointegration -- South Africa
- Description: The neoclassical theory suggests that free flows of external capital should be equilibrating and thereby facilitating smoothening of an economy's consumption or production patterns. South Africa has a very low savings rate, making it highly dependent on capital inflows which create instability and volatility in global markets. A policy dilemma is undoubtedly evident: capital inflows help to cater for the domestic low savings and at the same time the inflows pose instability, a threat on competitiveness and volatility challenges to the same economy due to their impact on exchange rates. The question is: are all forms of capital flows equally destabilizing? Since studies based on South Africa considered only the relationship between aggregate capital flows and real exchange rate, modelling individual components of capital flows could enlighten policy formulation even further. The composition of the flows and their effects on the composition of aggregate demand determine the evolution of real exchange rate response to surges in capital flows. Through co-integration and vector error correction modelling techniques applied to South African data between 1990 and 2010, the study found out that foreign portfolio investment exerts the greatest appreciation effect on the South African real exchange rate, followed by other investment and finally foreign direct investment. Thus the impact of capital flows on real exchange rate in South Africa differs by type of capital. This presents varied policy implications.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
- Authors: Mishi, Syden
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Capital movements -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Foreign exchange -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Currency question -- South Africa , Saving and investment -- South Africa , Free trade -- South Africa , Anti-inflationary policies -- South Africa , Cointegration -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , M Com
- Identifier: vital:11466 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1007089 , Capital movements -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Foreign exchange -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Currency question -- South Africa , Saving and investment -- South Africa , Free trade -- South Africa , Anti-inflationary policies -- South Africa , Cointegration -- South Africa
- Description: The neoclassical theory suggests that free flows of external capital should be equilibrating and thereby facilitating smoothening of an economy's consumption or production patterns. South Africa has a very low savings rate, making it highly dependent on capital inflows which create instability and volatility in global markets. A policy dilemma is undoubtedly evident: capital inflows help to cater for the domestic low savings and at the same time the inflows pose instability, a threat on competitiveness and volatility challenges to the same economy due to their impact on exchange rates. The question is: are all forms of capital flows equally destabilizing? Since studies based on South Africa considered only the relationship between aggregate capital flows and real exchange rate, modelling individual components of capital flows could enlighten policy formulation even further. The composition of the flows and their effects on the composition of aggregate demand determine the evolution of real exchange rate response to surges in capital flows. Through co-integration and vector error correction modelling techniques applied to South African data between 1990 and 2010, the study found out that foreign portfolio investment exerts the greatest appreciation effect on the South African real exchange rate, followed by other investment and finally foreign direct investment. Thus the impact of capital flows on real exchange rate in South Africa differs by type of capital. This presents varied policy implications.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
The impact of private capital flows on economic growth in South Africa
- Authors: Dzangare, Gillian
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa , Capital movements -- South Africa , Investments, Foreign -- South Africa , Development economics -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Free trade -- South Africa , Cointegration -- South Africa , South Africa -- Commercial policy
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , M Com
- Identifier: vital:11472 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1007134 , Economic development -- South Africa , Capital movements -- South Africa , Investments, Foreign -- South Africa , Development economics -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Free trade -- South Africa , Cointegration -- South Africa , South Africa -- Commercial policy
- Description: In this study an analysis of the long-term equilibrium relationship between economic growth measured as real GDP growth and private capital inflows is explored. The link between private capital inflows and economic growth is well-documented in the literature. However, a void in the literature relates to examining the cointegrating relationship between private capital inflows and economic growth particularly for South Africa. It is widely claimed that private capital inflows foster economic growth by closing the savings/investment gap. However, clarity on this point is necessary because of the seemingly unclear nature of the relationship in the literature. The exact form of this relationship as well as the nature of capital flows that could impact on real growth requires further investigation. Moreover, what exactly happens to this relationship in an economic crisis such as recently recorded in the global financial crisis is not clear. The analysis is undertaken by employing cointegration and vector error correction modeling approach using quarterly data for the period 1989q4-2009q4. This study employs the Johansen (1998) cointegration test. This technique distinguishes itself since it establishes the long run relationship between variables. Thereafter, residual diagnostic checks are performed on the variables. Our results show among others, that private capital inflows have impacted positively on the growth of the South African economy. The areas for further research that emerge from this study include the effect of some government policies on economic growth that should also receive more attention in the future since political instability slows down investment.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
- Authors: Dzangare, Gillian
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa , Capital movements -- South Africa , Investments, Foreign -- South Africa , Development economics -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Free trade -- South Africa , Cointegration -- South Africa , South Africa -- Commercial policy
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , M Com
- Identifier: vital:11472 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1007134 , Economic development -- South Africa , Capital movements -- South Africa , Investments, Foreign -- South Africa , Development economics -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Free trade -- South Africa , Cointegration -- South Africa , South Africa -- Commercial policy
- Description: In this study an analysis of the long-term equilibrium relationship between economic growth measured as real GDP growth and private capital inflows is explored. The link between private capital inflows and economic growth is well-documented in the literature. However, a void in the literature relates to examining the cointegrating relationship between private capital inflows and economic growth particularly for South Africa. It is widely claimed that private capital inflows foster economic growth by closing the savings/investment gap. However, clarity on this point is necessary because of the seemingly unclear nature of the relationship in the literature. The exact form of this relationship as well as the nature of capital flows that could impact on real growth requires further investigation. Moreover, what exactly happens to this relationship in an economic crisis such as recently recorded in the global financial crisis is not clear. The analysis is undertaken by employing cointegration and vector error correction modeling approach using quarterly data for the period 1989q4-2009q4. This study employs the Johansen (1998) cointegration test. This technique distinguishes itself since it establishes the long run relationship between variables. Thereafter, residual diagnostic checks are performed on the variables. Our results show among others, that private capital inflows have impacted positively on the growth of the South African economy. The areas for further research that emerge from this study include the effect of some government policies on economic growth that should also receive more attention in the future since political instability slows down investment.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
The impact of real exchange rates on economic growth: a case study of South Africa
- Authors: Sibanda, Kin
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa , Foreign exchange -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Money supply -- South Africa , Free trade -- South Africa , Saving and investment -- South Africa , Devaluation of currency -- South Africa , Currency question -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic policy
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , M Com
- Identifier: vital:11469 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1007129 , Economic development -- South Africa , Foreign exchange -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Money supply -- South Africa , Free trade -- South Africa , Saving and investment -- South Africa , Devaluation of currency -- South Africa , Currency question -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic policy
- Description: This study examined the impact of real exchange rates on economic growth in South Africa. The study used quarterly time series data for the period of 1994 to 2010. The Johansen cointegration and vector error correction model was used to determine the impact of real exchange on economic growth in South Africa. The explanatory variables in this study were real exchange rates, real interest rates, money supply, trade openness and gross fixed capital formation. Results from this study revealed that real exchange rates, gross fixed capital formation and real interest rates have a positive long run impact on economic growth, while money supply and trade openness have a negative long run impact on economic growth in South Africa. From the regression results, it was noted that undervaluation of the currency significantly hampers growth in the long run, whilst it significantly enhances economic growth in the short run. As such, the policy of depreciating the exchange rates to achieve higher growth rates is only effective in the short run and is not sustainable in the long run. Based on the findings of this study, the researcher recommended that misalignment (overvaluation and undervaluation) of the currency should be avoided at all costs. In addition, the results of the study showed that interest rates also have a significant impact on growth and since interest rates have a bearing on the exchange rate, it was recommended that the current monetary policy in South Africa should be maintained.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
- Authors: Sibanda, Kin
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa , Foreign exchange -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Money supply -- South Africa , Free trade -- South Africa , Saving and investment -- South Africa , Devaluation of currency -- South Africa , Currency question -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic policy
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , M Com
- Identifier: vital:11469 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1007129 , Economic development -- South Africa , Foreign exchange -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Money supply -- South Africa , Free trade -- South Africa , Saving and investment -- South Africa , Devaluation of currency -- South Africa , Currency question -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic policy
- Description: This study examined the impact of real exchange rates on economic growth in South Africa. The study used quarterly time series data for the period of 1994 to 2010. The Johansen cointegration and vector error correction model was used to determine the impact of real exchange on economic growth in South Africa. The explanatory variables in this study were real exchange rates, real interest rates, money supply, trade openness and gross fixed capital formation. Results from this study revealed that real exchange rates, gross fixed capital formation and real interest rates have a positive long run impact on economic growth, while money supply and trade openness have a negative long run impact on economic growth in South Africa. From the regression results, it was noted that undervaluation of the currency significantly hampers growth in the long run, whilst it significantly enhances economic growth in the short run. As such, the policy of depreciating the exchange rates to achieve higher growth rates is only effective in the short run and is not sustainable in the long run. Based on the findings of this study, the researcher recommended that misalignment (overvaluation and undervaluation) of the currency should be avoided at all costs. In addition, the results of the study showed that interest rates also have a significant impact on growth and since interest rates have a bearing on the exchange rate, it was recommended that the current monetary policy in South Africa should be maintained.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
The role of export diversification on economic growth in South Africa: 1980 - 2010
- Authors: Mudenda, Caroline
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa , International trade , Exports -- South Africa , Capital movements -- South Africa , Human capital -- South Africa , Free trade -- South Africa , Foreign exchange -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , M Com
- Identifier: vital:11463 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1007044 , Economic development -- South Africa , International trade , Exports -- South Africa , Capital movements -- South Africa , Human capital -- South Africa , Free trade -- South Africa , Foreign exchange -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Description: This study examined the role of export diversification on economic growth in South Africa. The study used annual time series data for the period covering 1980 to 2010 and employed a Vector Error Correction Model to determine the effects of export diversification and possible factors that affect it on economic growth. Possible factors that affect export diversification considered as independent variables in this study include gross capital formation, human capital, real effective exchange rate and trade openness. Results of the study reveal that export diversification and trade openness are positively related to economic growth while real effective exchange rate, capital formation and human capital have negative long run relationships with economic growth. The study recommended the continual implementation of trade liberalisation by the South African government. The South African government is also encouraged to promote the production of a diversified export basket through subsidisation, promotion of innovation and production of new products.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
- Authors: Mudenda, Caroline
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa , International trade , Exports -- South Africa , Capital movements -- South Africa , Human capital -- South Africa , Free trade -- South Africa , Foreign exchange -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , M Com
- Identifier: vital:11463 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1007044 , Economic development -- South Africa , International trade , Exports -- South Africa , Capital movements -- South Africa , Human capital -- South Africa , Free trade -- South Africa , Foreign exchange -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Description: This study examined the role of export diversification on economic growth in South Africa. The study used annual time series data for the period covering 1980 to 2010 and employed a Vector Error Correction Model to determine the effects of export diversification and possible factors that affect it on economic growth. Possible factors that affect export diversification considered as independent variables in this study include gross capital formation, human capital, real effective exchange rate and trade openness. Results of the study reveal that export diversification and trade openness are positively related to economic growth while real effective exchange rate, capital formation and human capital have negative long run relationships with economic growth. The study recommended the continual implementation of trade liberalisation by the South African government. The South African government is also encouraged to promote the production of a diversified export basket through subsidisation, promotion of innovation and production of new products.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
The direction of trade and its implications for labour in South Africa
- Authors: Cameron, Iona R
- Date: 2005
- Subjects: Labor demand -- South Africa , Labor market -- South Africa , Industrial relations -- South Africa , Foreign trade and employment -- South Africa , International economic relations , Free trade -- South Africa , South Africa -- Commercial policy
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MA
- Identifier: vital:948 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002682 , Labor demand -- South Africa , Labor market -- South Africa , Industrial relations -- South Africa , Foreign trade and employment -- South Africa , International economic relations , Free trade -- South Africa , South Africa -- Commercial policy
- Description: This aim of this thesis is to analyse the demand for labour from trade with a selection of South Africa’s trading partners. It is expected that labour demand will be greater in trade with developed blocs. Trade between developing blocs, however, is thought to be more skilled labour intensive and such trade should have greater linkages. This ought to feed through into greater labour demand so that South-South trade may be more ‘labour creating’ than expected. As it is more skill intensive, it may also be more dynamic, which has implications for future growth and development. Factor content methodology is used to assess labour demand. Calculations consider linkages to other sectors (which will increase labour demand) and the use of scarce resources (which has an opportunity cost to labour). The findings support the claim that trade with developing blocs is more professional labour intensive. Evidence that it may be more dynamic and have greater linkages to labour is borne out in exports to SADC. Greater labour demand through linkages, however, is not evident in net trade to SADC. Neither are they of significance in trade with any of the other developing blocs so labour effects due to linkages appear to be negligible. The advantages of South-South trade may rather lie in the dynamic benefits that trade in higher technology goods provides. When scarce resources such as capital and professional labour are taken into account, it is found that labour demand is negative in net trade to all blocs. However, even without the problem of scarce resources, most blocs have a negative demand for labour in net trade. The indication is that with the present trade patterns, South Africa cannot expect trade to increase labour demand. Policy which could improve this situation would be to increase labour force skills, improve the flexibility of the labour market and develop sectors which are both more advanced as well as labour intensive. Despite the negative impact of trade on labour in general, it is found that trade does differ by direction and that for each labour type there are certain blocs where labour demand is positive. This is also the case in net trade for particular sectors. Such information could be used as part of a targeted trade policy to assist in the marketing of particular sectors in trade and also for increasing labour demand for certain labour groups.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2005
- Authors: Cameron, Iona R
- Date: 2005
- Subjects: Labor demand -- South Africa , Labor market -- South Africa , Industrial relations -- South Africa , Foreign trade and employment -- South Africa , International economic relations , Free trade -- South Africa , South Africa -- Commercial policy
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MA
- Identifier: vital:948 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002682 , Labor demand -- South Africa , Labor market -- South Africa , Industrial relations -- South Africa , Foreign trade and employment -- South Africa , International economic relations , Free trade -- South Africa , South Africa -- Commercial policy
- Description: This aim of this thesis is to analyse the demand for labour from trade with a selection of South Africa’s trading partners. It is expected that labour demand will be greater in trade with developed blocs. Trade between developing blocs, however, is thought to be more skilled labour intensive and such trade should have greater linkages. This ought to feed through into greater labour demand so that South-South trade may be more ‘labour creating’ than expected. As it is more skill intensive, it may also be more dynamic, which has implications for future growth and development. Factor content methodology is used to assess labour demand. Calculations consider linkages to other sectors (which will increase labour demand) and the use of scarce resources (which has an opportunity cost to labour). The findings support the claim that trade with developing blocs is more professional labour intensive. Evidence that it may be more dynamic and have greater linkages to labour is borne out in exports to SADC. Greater labour demand through linkages, however, is not evident in net trade to SADC. Neither are they of significance in trade with any of the other developing blocs so labour effects due to linkages appear to be negligible. The advantages of South-South trade may rather lie in the dynamic benefits that trade in higher technology goods provides. When scarce resources such as capital and professional labour are taken into account, it is found that labour demand is negative in net trade to all blocs. However, even without the problem of scarce resources, most blocs have a negative demand for labour in net trade. The indication is that with the present trade patterns, South Africa cannot expect trade to increase labour demand. Policy which could improve this situation would be to increase labour force skills, improve the flexibility of the labour market and develop sectors which are both more advanced as well as labour intensive. Despite the negative impact of trade on labour in general, it is found that trade does differ by direction and that for each labour type there are certain blocs where labour demand is positive. This is also the case in net trade for particular sectors. Such information could be used as part of a targeted trade policy to assist in the marketing of particular sectors in trade and also for increasing labour demand for certain labour groups.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2005
The negotiation process of the EU-SA Trade, Development and Co-operation Agreement: a case of reference for the south?
- Authors: Pillay, Morgenie
- Date: 2003
- Subjects: South Africa -- Foreign economic relations -- European Union countries , European Union countries -- Foreign economic relations -- South Africa , South Africa -- Commerce -- European Union countries , European Union countries -- Commerce -- South Africa , Free trade -- South Africa , Trade regulation -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MA
- Identifier: vital:2821 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1003031 , South Africa -- Foreign economic relations -- European Union countries , European Union countries -- Foreign economic relations -- South Africa , South Africa -- Commerce -- European Union countries , European Union countries -- Commerce -- South Africa , Free trade -- South Africa , Trade regulation -- South Africa
- Description: Overall the conclusions drawn about South Africa’s negotiating style and tactics were arrived at by analysing a number of reports (that closely followed the evolution of the negotiations) and then paralleling this case study’s findings with the conjectures made by the theoretical frameworks (i.e. works by Putnam, Zartmann and Churchmann) about how negotiations proceed. In the final analysis, the findings of this case are intended to provide insight for the south about how to approach any future trade negotiations with the North (or more specifically with the EU).
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2003
- Authors: Pillay, Morgenie
- Date: 2003
- Subjects: South Africa -- Foreign economic relations -- European Union countries , European Union countries -- Foreign economic relations -- South Africa , South Africa -- Commerce -- European Union countries , European Union countries -- Commerce -- South Africa , Free trade -- South Africa , Trade regulation -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MA
- Identifier: vital:2821 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1003031 , South Africa -- Foreign economic relations -- European Union countries , European Union countries -- Foreign economic relations -- South Africa , South Africa -- Commerce -- European Union countries , European Union countries -- Commerce -- South Africa , Free trade -- South Africa , Trade regulation -- South Africa
- Description: Overall the conclusions drawn about South Africa’s negotiating style and tactics were arrived at by analysing a number of reports (that closely followed the evolution of the negotiations) and then paralleling this case study’s findings with the conjectures made by the theoretical frameworks (i.e. works by Putnam, Zartmann and Churchmann) about how negotiations proceed. In the final analysis, the findings of this case are intended to provide insight for the south about how to approach any future trade negotiations with the North (or more specifically with the EU).
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2003
Protectionism and compliance with the GATT article XXIV in selected regional trade arrangements
- Authors: Grimett, Leticia Anthea
- Date: 1999
- Subjects: General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (Organization) , International trade , Tariff -- Law and legislation , Protectionism , Free trade -- South Africa , South Africa -- Commerce
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , LLM
- Identifier: vital:3673 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1003188 , General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (Organization) , International trade , Tariff -- Law and legislation , Protectionism , Free trade -- South Africa , South Africa -- Commerce
- Description: The General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) 1994 has resulted in the GATT Contracting States making a renewed commitment to freer global trade and trade liberalisation. These Contracting States signalled their commitment to GATT policies and principles by undertaking to abolish all those non-tariff barriers which were not converted to tariffs and to decrease all tariffs applied by their domestic economies. The movement away from protectionism is intended to bring contracting states in line with the GATT most-favoured-nation and national treatment principles. The only exceptions to these principles are the regional trade arrangements which can be implemented in accordance with Article XXIV of GATT 1947 and the Understanding on the Implementation of Article XXIV of GATT 1947. Regional trade arrangements such as customs unions and free-trade areas have been allowed by the GATT as they are deemed to promote trade liberalisation through the removal of substantially all trade restrictions between countries party to these trade arrangements. In practice this has not been the case, however, as these regional trade arrangements have been known to apply very protectionist trade policies. This research determines whether regional trade arrangements are inherently protective ie does the nature of these regional trade arrangements encourage protectionism? The external trade policies of the European Union (EU), Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) are analysed to determine whether the contracting parties to regional trade arrangements have corrupted the GATT provisions and so contributed towards the protectionist nature of these regional trade arrangements. The internal trade provisions relating to the implementation of these regional trade arrangements have also been discussed to determine their compliance with Article XXIV of GATT 1947. As all the selected regional trade arrangements have direct or indirect links to South Africa, the implications of the policies chosen by these parties for South Africa have also been discussed. Analysis of the EU, SADC, SACU and ASEAN has shown that prior to the adoption of the GATT 1994, the free-trade areas and customs unions were not implemented in accordance with Article XXIV provisions. These regional trade arrangements have been moulded to fit the economic aspirations of the relevant contracting states. Of the regional trade arrangements accepted by the GATT, free-trade areas have been found to be the least protectionist and are the least likely to be perverted by contracting parties. Customs unions, on the other hand, may encourage contracting parties to protect their economies as they rely on group participation rather than individual participation. Individual Member States become responsible to the group which provides these states with greater economic power. As a result Member States are motivated to protect the new group entity from outside competition. In this way, they are inherently protective. Safeguards are therefore necessary to protect individual non-Member States from such behaviour. The implications of protectionism for South Africa, SADC and SACU have also been discussed.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 1999
- Authors: Grimett, Leticia Anthea
- Date: 1999
- Subjects: General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (Organization) , International trade , Tariff -- Law and legislation , Protectionism , Free trade -- South Africa , South Africa -- Commerce
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , LLM
- Identifier: vital:3673 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1003188 , General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (Organization) , International trade , Tariff -- Law and legislation , Protectionism , Free trade -- South Africa , South Africa -- Commerce
- Description: The General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) 1994 has resulted in the GATT Contracting States making a renewed commitment to freer global trade and trade liberalisation. These Contracting States signalled their commitment to GATT policies and principles by undertaking to abolish all those non-tariff barriers which were not converted to tariffs and to decrease all tariffs applied by their domestic economies. The movement away from protectionism is intended to bring contracting states in line with the GATT most-favoured-nation and national treatment principles. The only exceptions to these principles are the regional trade arrangements which can be implemented in accordance with Article XXIV of GATT 1947 and the Understanding on the Implementation of Article XXIV of GATT 1947. Regional trade arrangements such as customs unions and free-trade areas have been allowed by the GATT as they are deemed to promote trade liberalisation through the removal of substantially all trade restrictions between countries party to these trade arrangements. In practice this has not been the case, however, as these regional trade arrangements have been known to apply very protectionist trade policies. This research determines whether regional trade arrangements are inherently protective ie does the nature of these regional trade arrangements encourage protectionism? The external trade policies of the European Union (EU), Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) are analysed to determine whether the contracting parties to regional trade arrangements have corrupted the GATT provisions and so contributed towards the protectionist nature of these regional trade arrangements. The internal trade provisions relating to the implementation of these regional trade arrangements have also been discussed to determine their compliance with Article XXIV of GATT 1947. As all the selected regional trade arrangements have direct or indirect links to South Africa, the implications of the policies chosen by these parties for South Africa have also been discussed. Analysis of the EU, SADC, SACU and ASEAN has shown that prior to the adoption of the GATT 1994, the free-trade areas and customs unions were not implemented in accordance with Article XXIV provisions. These regional trade arrangements have been moulded to fit the economic aspirations of the relevant contracting states. Of the regional trade arrangements accepted by the GATT, free-trade areas have been found to be the least protectionist and are the least likely to be perverted by contracting parties. Customs unions, on the other hand, may encourage contracting parties to protect their economies as they rely on group participation rather than individual participation. Individual Member States become responsible to the group which provides these states with greater economic power. As a result Member States are motivated to protect the new group entity from outside competition. In this way, they are inherently protective. Safeguards are therefore necessary to protect individual non-Member States from such behaviour. The implications of protectionism for South Africa, SADC and SACU have also been discussed.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 1999
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