The effect of sectoral foreign direct investment on sectoral growth and sectoral employment in South Africa
- Authors: Paul, Bernice Nicole
- Date: 2021-04
- Subjects: Investments, Foreign -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions -- 1991- , South Africa -- Economic policy , Gross domestic product -- South Africa , UNCTAD-ICTSD Project on IPRs and Sustainable Development , Unemployment -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: thesis , text , Master , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/177964 , vital:42894
- Description: Over several decades past, developing countries have received increased amounts of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). This form of investment has been welcomed because of the perceived benefits attached to it. FDI is seen as an important driver of economic development for many nations. For South Africa specifically, GDP growth rates have remained less than required, unemployment rates have reached staggering levels, poverty and inequality levels are increasing and the list goes on. Considering the perceived benefits of FDI, one may argue that FDI can play a crucial role in reducing the mentioned challenges facing the nation, however, only if directed to initiatives contributing to growth and employment. The 2015 Investment Policy Framework for Sustainable Development includes an action menu promoting investment in sectors relating to the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Therefore, this study is aimed at investigating the relationship between sector FDI and sector growth in addition to investigating the effect of sector FDI on sector employment over the period 2000Q1 to 2016Q4 for six of South Africa’s economic sectors. The reason for such a study is based on the premise that developing nations such as South Africa lack sound trade and industrial policies favorable to foreign investors. This then leads to the nation failing to attract higher volumes of FDI which could be used to address structural challenges facing the country. It is therefore important to identify sectors in which FDI has resulted in growth and employment so that when policies are considered, the right FDI is targeted. A comprehensive review of existing theoretical and empirical literature showed that FDI does result in economic growth for developed and developing countries, although FDI crowds out domestic investment in the short run. Literature on the effect of FDI on employment showed diverse effects. Some studies found FDI to increase employment overall, other studies found FDI to increase employment only during periods of restructuring and some studies found FDI to result in job losses. For South African sectors, the present study finds that the financial services sector receives the highest volume of South African FDI, followed by the mining and quarrying sector and the manufacturing, however, FDI in all six sectors under study is associated with increased growth and employment. This finding suggests that the financial services sector has received increased volumes of FDI as a result of financialization of the South African economy. It is this increased FDI in the financial services sector that is directed to income redistribution from the real sector to the finance sector. This study employed econometric techniques and methods of analysis to investigate the relationship between sector FDI and sector growth, and the effect of sector FDI on sector employment. Panel cointegration tests were conducted for all six sectors included in the study to establish if long run equilibrium relationships exist among integrated variables. The Johansen-Fisher panel cointegration test revealed that there is evidence of cointegration in four of the six sectors. Since cointegration was established, the study proceeded to perform the Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality analysis and estimate a Panel Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Results from the causality analysis found a unidirectional causality relationship between FDI and GDP growth, while the panel VECM found FDI to have a significant effect on growth in all sectors. The Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) model employed to investigate the effect of FDI on employment found FDI to have an insignificant effect on employment in all sectors included, although the signs of the coefficients suggest that FDI is associated with increased employment and rising wages is associated with increased productivity growth. Since this study finds that FDI is associated with increased GDP growth in all six sectors under study, policy makers should devise strategies to attract FDI in sectors such as the transportation, storage and communication sector and the electricity, gas and water sector as FDI in these sectors are associated with increased growth however, they receive very low levels of FDI. There are a number of reasons for this, therefore, government institutions and policy makers should investigate the reasons for these low levels of FDI inflows into these sectors so that they can devise further strategies to address these reasons and perhaps attract higher levels of FDI into these sectors. Spillover benefits play a major role in host nations participating in FDI therefore, prior to entering into bilateral treaty agreements, policy makers should ensure that foreign investors are compelled to create jobs, offer training and qualifications etc. through their investments so that some of the SDGs can be achieved. Additionally, this study finds a positive, statistically insignificant relationship between FDI and employment. FDI may not have a significant relationship on employment due to jobless growth and capital-intensive growth rather than labor-intensive growth. Such a situation calls for government intervention. Skills shortage is a rising problem in South Africa; therefore, investors choose to employ advanced technologies rather than people. Under such circumstances, governments are encouraged to invest resources into skills development so that human capital are not completely replaced by technology. , Thesis (MCom) -- Faculty of Commerce, Economics and Economic History, 2021
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2021-04
- Authors: Paul, Bernice Nicole
- Date: 2021-04
- Subjects: Investments, Foreign -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions -- 1991- , South Africa -- Economic policy , Gross domestic product -- South Africa , UNCTAD-ICTSD Project on IPRs and Sustainable Development , Unemployment -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: thesis , text , Master , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/177964 , vital:42894
- Description: Over several decades past, developing countries have received increased amounts of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). This form of investment has been welcomed because of the perceived benefits attached to it. FDI is seen as an important driver of economic development for many nations. For South Africa specifically, GDP growth rates have remained less than required, unemployment rates have reached staggering levels, poverty and inequality levels are increasing and the list goes on. Considering the perceived benefits of FDI, one may argue that FDI can play a crucial role in reducing the mentioned challenges facing the nation, however, only if directed to initiatives contributing to growth and employment. The 2015 Investment Policy Framework for Sustainable Development includes an action menu promoting investment in sectors relating to the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Therefore, this study is aimed at investigating the relationship between sector FDI and sector growth in addition to investigating the effect of sector FDI on sector employment over the period 2000Q1 to 2016Q4 for six of South Africa’s economic sectors. The reason for such a study is based on the premise that developing nations such as South Africa lack sound trade and industrial policies favorable to foreign investors. This then leads to the nation failing to attract higher volumes of FDI which could be used to address structural challenges facing the country. It is therefore important to identify sectors in which FDI has resulted in growth and employment so that when policies are considered, the right FDI is targeted. A comprehensive review of existing theoretical and empirical literature showed that FDI does result in economic growth for developed and developing countries, although FDI crowds out domestic investment in the short run. Literature on the effect of FDI on employment showed diverse effects. Some studies found FDI to increase employment overall, other studies found FDI to increase employment only during periods of restructuring and some studies found FDI to result in job losses. For South African sectors, the present study finds that the financial services sector receives the highest volume of South African FDI, followed by the mining and quarrying sector and the manufacturing, however, FDI in all six sectors under study is associated with increased growth and employment. This finding suggests that the financial services sector has received increased volumes of FDI as a result of financialization of the South African economy. It is this increased FDI in the financial services sector that is directed to income redistribution from the real sector to the finance sector. This study employed econometric techniques and methods of analysis to investigate the relationship between sector FDI and sector growth, and the effect of sector FDI on sector employment. Panel cointegration tests were conducted for all six sectors included in the study to establish if long run equilibrium relationships exist among integrated variables. The Johansen-Fisher panel cointegration test revealed that there is evidence of cointegration in four of the six sectors. Since cointegration was established, the study proceeded to perform the Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality analysis and estimate a Panel Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Results from the causality analysis found a unidirectional causality relationship between FDI and GDP growth, while the panel VECM found FDI to have a significant effect on growth in all sectors. The Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) model employed to investigate the effect of FDI on employment found FDI to have an insignificant effect on employment in all sectors included, although the signs of the coefficients suggest that FDI is associated with increased employment and rising wages is associated with increased productivity growth. Since this study finds that FDI is associated with increased GDP growth in all six sectors under study, policy makers should devise strategies to attract FDI in sectors such as the transportation, storage and communication sector and the electricity, gas and water sector as FDI in these sectors are associated with increased growth however, they receive very low levels of FDI. There are a number of reasons for this, therefore, government institutions and policy makers should investigate the reasons for these low levels of FDI inflows into these sectors so that they can devise further strategies to address these reasons and perhaps attract higher levels of FDI into these sectors. Spillover benefits play a major role in host nations participating in FDI therefore, prior to entering into bilateral treaty agreements, policy makers should ensure that foreign investors are compelled to create jobs, offer training and qualifications etc. through their investments so that some of the SDGs can be achieved. Additionally, this study finds a positive, statistically insignificant relationship between FDI and employment. FDI may not have a significant relationship on employment due to jobless growth and capital-intensive growth rather than labor-intensive growth. Such a situation calls for government intervention. Skills shortage is a rising problem in South Africa; therefore, investors choose to employ advanced technologies rather than people. Under such circumstances, governments are encouraged to invest resources into skills development so that human capital are not completely replaced by technology. , Thesis (MCom) -- Faculty of Commerce, Economics and Economic History, 2021
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2021-04
An analysis of revisions to the South African quarterly gross domestic product
- Authors: Fotoyi, Asanda
- Date: 2016
- Subjects: Gross domestic product -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/3635 , vital:20448
- Description: Gross domestic product (GDP) is one of the most important economic performance indicators for any country that is closely watched by governments, businesses and financial communities. GDP often influences economic decisions and policy-making. These decisions are however often based on preliminary initial announcements by statistical agencies. The preliminary estimates are then revised as more comprehensive information becomes available. Therefore, it is important to ensure that the initial GDP announcements are unbiased, efficient and can be relied on. This study focuses on seasonally adjusted and annualised (qq) growth rates at constant prices for the following national accounts aggregates: GDP, gross domestic expenditure (GDE), final consumption expenditure by households and general government, gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), Exports and imports of goods and services, gross national income (GNI) and disposable income of households. The research methodology used is based on descriptive statistics and Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression estimations. The results of the study indicate that little confidence should be attributed to interpretations of the initially announced estimates for GDP, GDE, final consumption expenditure by households, GNI and disposable income by households. The study found evidence that suggests that the initial announcements are biased and inefficient. This implies that the initial announcements contain measurement errors that could be eliminated in order to become a better forecast of the final or true value. This further suggests a lack of expected reliability of existing and future initial announcements of the estimates. For short-term analysis the users of GDP data are encouraged to focus on different measures. It is also recommended that the statistical agents producing South Africa’s national accounts aggregates improve their statistical compilation processes. The agencies are also encouraged to conduct periodic revisions studies and make these available to the users.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2016
- Authors: Fotoyi, Asanda
- Date: 2016
- Subjects: Gross domestic product -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/3635 , vital:20448
- Description: Gross domestic product (GDP) is one of the most important economic performance indicators for any country that is closely watched by governments, businesses and financial communities. GDP often influences economic decisions and policy-making. These decisions are however often based on preliminary initial announcements by statistical agencies. The preliminary estimates are then revised as more comprehensive information becomes available. Therefore, it is important to ensure that the initial GDP announcements are unbiased, efficient and can be relied on. This study focuses on seasonally adjusted and annualised (qq) growth rates at constant prices for the following national accounts aggregates: GDP, gross domestic expenditure (GDE), final consumption expenditure by households and general government, gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), Exports and imports of goods and services, gross national income (GNI) and disposable income of households. The research methodology used is based on descriptive statistics and Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression estimations. The results of the study indicate that little confidence should be attributed to interpretations of the initially announced estimates for GDP, GDE, final consumption expenditure by households, GNI and disposable income by households. The study found evidence that suggests that the initial announcements are biased and inefficient. This implies that the initial announcements contain measurement errors that could be eliminated in order to become a better forecast of the final or true value. This further suggests a lack of expected reliability of existing and future initial announcements of the estimates. For short-term analysis the users of GDP data are encouraged to focus on different measures. It is also recommended that the statistical agents producing South Africa’s national accounts aggregates improve their statistical compilation processes. The agencies are also encouraged to conduct periodic revisions studies and make these available to the users.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2016
Impact of the global financial crisis on economic growth: implications for South Africa and other developing economies
- Authors: Savy, Neil Edward
- Date: 2015
- Subjects: Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009 , Gross domestic product -- Developing countries , Gross domestic product -- South Africa , Economic forecasting -- South Africa , Economic forecasting -- Developing countries , Economic development -- South Africa , Economic development -- Developing countries
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1117 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1017542
- Description: This paper examines the impact of the recent global financial crisis on economic growth in developing economies and South Africa in particular. It explores whether the events experienced by developing countries conform to what would be anticipated from economic theory. This is done by firstly comparing country growth forecasts for 2012 captured in 2008 at the beginning of the crisis to actual 2012 GDP growth data. Secondly, panel data analysis is used to investigate three important transmission channels, namely those of Trade, Capital Flows and Exchange Rates for 25 developing economies. The results suggest that economic forecasters in 2008 on average overestimated GDP growth for 2012 by -21.6 percent (excluding Venezuela). The only important transmission channel identified using Trend analysis to explain this negative impact on growth was capital flows. However when using Panel regression analysis all three channels were found to explain the economic impact of the crisis on GDP growth for developing countries, conforming to economic theory. It was discovered that, contrary to what was initially expected, portfolio inflows actually increased for most developing countries during the crisis. This possibly can be explained by the impact of quantitative easing in the USA. South Africa was found to have been negatively impacted by the global financial crisis, but to a lesser extent when compared to most other developing countries. The findings are important for global investors looking for new investment opportunities. The extent to which individual economies are “decoupled” from developed economies’ performance provides possible opportunities for diversifying risk through a geographic spread of investor portfolios.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2015
- Authors: Savy, Neil Edward
- Date: 2015
- Subjects: Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009 , Gross domestic product -- Developing countries , Gross domestic product -- South Africa , Economic forecasting -- South Africa , Economic forecasting -- Developing countries , Economic development -- South Africa , Economic development -- Developing countries
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1117 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1017542
- Description: This paper examines the impact of the recent global financial crisis on economic growth in developing economies and South Africa in particular. It explores whether the events experienced by developing countries conform to what would be anticipated from economic theory. This is done by firstly comparing country growth forecasts for 2012 captured in 2008 at the beginning of the crisis to actual 2012 GDP growth data. Secondly, panel data analysis is used to investigate three important transmission channels, namely those of Trade, Capital Flows and Exchange Rates for 25 developing economies. The results suggest that economic forecasters in 2008 on average overestimated GDP growth for 2012 by -21.6 percent (excluding Venezuela). The only important transmission channel identified using Trend analysis to explain this negative impact on growth was capital flows. However when using Panel regression analysis all three channels were found to explain the economic impact of the crisis on GDP growth for developing countries, conforming to economic theory. It was discovered that, contrary to what was initially expected, portfolio inflows actually increased for most developing countries during the crisis. This possibly can be explained by the impact of quantitative easing in the USA. South Africa was found to have been negatively impacted by the global financial crisis, but to a lesser extent when compared to most other developing countries. The findings are important for global investors looking for new investment opportunities. The extent to which individual economies are “decoupled” from developed economies’ performance provides possible opportunities for diversifying risk through a geographic spread of investor portfolios.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2015
An analysis of alternative objective measures of economic performance and social development.
- Authors: Hlanti, Msawenkosi Madoda
- Date: 2014
- Subjects: National income -- Economic aspects -- South Africa -- Evaluation , Economic development -- Social aspects -- South Africa -- Evaluation , Gross domestic product -- South Africa , Sustainable development -- South Africa , Social planning -- South Africa , Economic policy , South Africa -- Social conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1099 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1013144
- Description: The measurement of economic performance and social development has become increasingly important as societies have evolved and become more complex. At present nations do not only seek to improve economic performance but are also compelled to improve social development through improvements in socially and environmentally sustainable initiatives. Traditional measures such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) which is derived from United Nations’ System of National Accounts (SNA) have been criticised given the inability to adequately account for these social and environmental aspects of social development. Given these perceived deficiencies in the conventional measures, several alternative objective measures have been proposed in an attempt to address these shortcomings. Therefore the primary aim of this study is to analyse, via a literature survey, these alternative objective measures of economic performance and social development. The alternative measures that constitute the survey are the Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare (ISEW), the Genuine Savings (GS), and the United Nations’ Human Development Index (HDI). Upon the completion of the literature survey, sustainable development theory is used to evaluate the extent to which the National Accounts and the alternative objective measures are consistent with Hicksian and Fisherian definitions of income and capital, which embody the concepts of sustainability and sustainable development. The evaluation reveals that the National Accounts neither conform to the Hicksian nor the Fisherian definitions of income, thus could not be viewed as a measure of sustainable income. It is found that the ISEW is consistent with the Fisherian definition of income and is also a partial indicator of sustainable development. The evaluation of the GS measure reveals that it is consistent with the Hicksian definition but not the Fisherian definition. In terms of overall sustainability, it is argued that GS is a partial measure of weak sustainability. The HDI is similar to the National Accounts, in that it is neither consistent with the Hicksian nor the Fisherian definitions of income and is also not a measure of sustainability. In summary, the study demonstrates that despite GDP's shortcomings as a measure of economic performance and social development, currently, there is no alternative approach which simultaneously addresses every flaw in GDP. However, all the alternatives yield a much better approximation of social development than GDP.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2014
- Authors: Hlanti, Msawenkosi Madoda
- Date: 2014
- Subjects: National income -- Economic aspects -- South Africa -- Evaluation , Economic development -- Social aspects -- South Africa -- Evaluation , Gross domestic product -- South Africa , Sustainable development -- South Africa , Social planning -- South Africa , Economic policy , South Africa -- Social conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1099 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1013144
- Description: The measurement of economic performance and social development has become increasingly important as societies have evolved and become more complex. At present nations do not only seek to improve economic performance but are also compelled to improve social development through improvements in socially and environmentally sustainable initiatives. Traditional measures such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) which is derived from United Nations’ System of National Accounts (SNA) have been criticised given the inability to adequately account for these social and environmental aspects of social development. Given these perceived deficiencies in the conventional measures, several alternative objective measures have been proposed in an attempt to address these shortcomings. Therefore the primary aim of this study is to analyse, via a literature survey, these alternative objective measures of economic performance and social development. The alternative measures that constitute the survey are the Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare (ISEW), the Genuine Savings (GS), and the United Nations’ Human Development Index (HDI). Upon the completion of the literature survey, sustainable development theory is used to evaluate the extent to which the National Accounts and the alternative objective measures are consistent with Hicksian and Fisherian definitions of income and capital, which embody the concepts of sustainability and sustainable development. The evaluation reveals that the National Accounts neither conform to the Hicksian nor the Fisherian definitions of income, thus could not be viewed as a measure of sustainable income. It is found that the ISEW is consistent with the Fisherian definition of income and is also a partial indicator of sustainable development. The evaluation of the GS measure reveals that it is consistent with the Hicksian definition but not the Fisherian definition. In terms of overall sustainability, it is argued that GS is a partial measure of weak sustainability. The HDI is similar to the National Accounts, in that it is neither consistent with the Hicksian nor the Fisherian definitions of income and is also not a measure of sustainability. In summary, the study demonstrates that despite GDP's shortcomings as a measure of economic performance and social development, currently, there is no alternative approach which simultaneously addresses every flaw in GDP. However, all the alternatives yield a much better approximation of social development than GDP.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2014
The impact of financial development on private investment in south Africa
- Authors: Mukuya, Prisca R
- Date: 2014
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa , Gross domestic product -- South Africa , Investments, Foreign -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , M Com
- Identifier: vital:11488 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1018210 , Economic development -- South Africa , Gross domestic product -- South Africa , Investments, Foreign -- South Africa
- Description: Empirical evidence and theoretical propositions suggest that financial development is strongly correlated to private investment because financial development positively affects investments by affecting capital accumulation, altering savings rate or by channelizing savings to various capital producing technologies. This study empirically investigated the impact of financial development on private investment in South Africa using quarterly data for the period 1994/01 to 2011/04. This study assess whether the theoretical and empirical propositions can be supported in South Africa. Cointegration tests using the Johansen approach (1988) were conducted to examine if there is a stable relationship in the level of private investment and financial development in South Africa. As a proxy for financial sector development, credit to private sector as per cent of GDP and stock market development were employed. Other variables that affect investment such as real interest rates and real GDP were also included in the model. Results of the study indicate that stock market development and real GDP have a positive relationship with private investment. Bank credit to the private sector however showed a negative relationship with private investment. A negative relationship was also noted for the relationship between private investment and real interest rates.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2014
- Authors: Mukuya, Prisca R
- Date: 2014
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa , Gross domestic product -- South Africa , Investments, Foreign -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , M Com
- Identifier: vital:11488 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1018210 , Economic development -- South Africa , Gross domestic product -- South Africa , Investments, Foreign -- South Africa
- Description: Empirical evidence and theoretical propositions suggest that financial development is strongly correlated to private investment because financial development positively affects investments by affecting capital accumulation, altering savings rate or by channelizing savings to various capital producing technologies. This study empirically investigated the impact of financial development on private investment in South Africa using quarterly data for the period 1994/01 to 2011/04. This study assess whether the theoretical and empirical propositions can be supported in South Africa. Cointegration tests using the Johansen approach (1988) were conducted to examine if there is a stable relationship in the level of private investment and financial development in South Africa. As a proxy for financial sector development, credit to private sector as per cent of GDP and stock market development were employed. Other variables that affect investment such as real interest rates and real GDP were also included in the model. Results of the study indicate that stock market development and real GDP have a positive relationship with private investment. Bank credit to the private sector however showed a negative relationship with private investment. A negative relationship was also noted for the relationship between private investment and real interest rates.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2014
Money supply endogeneity : an empirical investigation of South African data (2000Q1-2011Q4)
- Authors: Schady, Stuart William
- Date: 2013 , 2013-04-29
- Subjects: Monetary policy -- South Africa , Inflation targeting -- South Africa , Gross domestic product -- South Africa , Bank loans -- South Africa , Money supply -- South Africa , Endogenous growth (Economics) , Domestic credit extension
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:928 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1001454 , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Inflation targeting -- South Africa , Gross domestic product -- South Africa , Bank loans -- South Africa , Money supply -- South Africa , Endogenous growth (Economics)
- Description: This study is about whether the money supply in South Africa under a monetary policy regime of inflation‐targeting is exogenously or endogenously determined. The proposition of an exogenous money supply has been offered by monetarists, where the Central Bank determines the quantity of money supplied to the economy and this has a causal influence on income and credit extension. The endogenous money theory is a post‐Keynesian proposition whereby the money creation is determined by banks adjusting their responses to demands for credit‐money from economic agents. The data analysis is from 2000Q1 to 2010Q4 and entails the use of the variables monetary base (MB), domestic credit extension (DCE), M3, and gross national product (GDP). All variables are logged. The empirical tests conducted start with the Augmented Dickey‐Fuller unit root test to determine the variables order of integration. Johansen cointegration tests are done followed by Vector Error‐Correction Models (VECMs) and Granger causality tests to determine whether there is unidirectional or bidirectional causality between variables over the long and short‐run. Based on the results of the testing it was discovered that over the inflation‐targeting regime money supply in South Africa was endogenously determined. Furthermore, the data best supports the Accommodationist analysis of endogenous money as opposed to that of Structuralism and Liquidity Preference , Adobe Acrobat 9.53 Paper Capture Plug-in
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2013
- Authors: Schady, Stuart William
- Date: 2013 , 2013-04-29
- Subjects: Monetary policy -- South Africa , Inflation targeting -- South Africa , Gross domestic product -- South Africa , Bank loans -- South Africa , Money supply -- South Africa , Endogenous growth (Economics) , Domestic credit extension
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:928 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1001454 , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Inflation targeting -- South Africa , Gross domestic product -- South Africa , Bank loans -- South Africa , Money supply -- South Africa , Endogenous growth (Economics)
- Description: This study is about whether the money supply in South Africa under a monetary policy regime of inflation‐targeting is exogenously or endogenously determined. The proposition of an exogenous money supply has been offered by monetarists, where the Central Bank determines the quantity of money supplied to the economy and this has a causal influence on income and credit extension. The endogenous money theory is a post‐Keynesian proposition whereby the money creation is determined by banks adjusting their responses to demands for credit‐money from economic agents. The data analysis is from 2000Q1 to 2010Q4 and entails the use of the variables monetary base (MB), domestic credit extension (DCE), M3, and gross national product (GDP). All variables are logged. The empirical tests conducted start with the Augmented Dickey‐Fuller unit root test to determine the variables order of integration. Johansen cointegration tests are done followed by Vector Error‐Correction Models (VECMs) and Granger causality tests to determine whether there is unidirectional or bidirectional causality between variables over the long and short‐run. Based on the results of the testing it was discovered that over the inflation‐targeting regime money supply in South Africa was endogenously determined. Furthermore, the data best supports the Accommodationist analysis of endogenous money as opposed to that of Structuralism and Liquidity Preference , Adobe Acrobat 9.53 Paper Capture Plug-in
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2013
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