The impact of capital flows on real exchange rates in South Africa
- Authors: Mishi, Syden
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Capital movements -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Foreign exchange -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Currency question -- South Africa , Saving and investment -- South Africa , Free trade -- South Africa , Anti-inflationary policies -- South Africa , Cointegration -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , M Com
- Identifier: vital:11466 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1007089 , Capital movements -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Foreign exchange -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Currency question -- South Africa , Saving and investment -- South Africa , Free trade -- South Africa , Anti-inflationary policies -- South Africa , Cointegration -- South Africa
- Description: The neoclassical theory suggests that free flows of external capital should be equilibrating and thereby facilitating smoothening of an economy's consumption or production patterns. South Africa has a very low savings rate, making it highly dependent on capital inflows which create instability and volatility in global markets. A policy dilemma is undoubtedly evident: capital inflows help to cater for the domestic low savings and at the same time the inflows pose instability, a threat on competitiveness and volatility challenges to the same economy due to their impact on exchange rates. The question is: are all forms of capital flows equally destabilizing? Since studies based on South Africa considered only the relationship between aggregate capital flows and real exchange rate, modelling individual components of capital flows could enlighten policy formulation even further. The composition of the flows and their effects on the composition of aggregate demand determine the evolution of real exchange rate response to surges in capital flows. Through co-integration and vector error correction modelling techniques applied to South African data between 1990 and 2010, the study found out that foreign portfolio investment exerts the greatest appreciation effect on the South African real exchange rate, followed by other investment and finally foreign direct investment. Thus the impact of capital flows on real exchange rate in South Africa differs by type of capital. This presents varied policy implications.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
- Authors: Mishi, Syden
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Capital movements -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Foreign exchange -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Currency question -- South Africa , Saving and investment -- South Africa , Free trade -- South Africa , Anti-inflationary policies -- South Africa , Cointegration -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , M Com
- Identifier: vital:11466 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1007089 , Capital movements -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Foreign exchange -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Currency question -- South Africa , Saving and investment -- South Africa , Free trade -- South Africa , Anti-inflationary policies -- South Africa , Cointegration -- South Africa
- Description: The neoclassical theory suggests that free flows of external capital should be equilibrating and thereby facilitating smoothening of an economy's consumption or production patterns. South Africa has a very low savings rate, making it highly dependent on capital inflows which create instability and volatility in global markets. A policy dilemma is undoubtedly evident: capital inflows help to cater for the domestic low savings and at the same time the inflows pose instability, a threat on competitiveness and volatility challenges to the same economy due to their impact on exchange rates. The question is: are all forms of capital flows equally destabilizing? Since studies based on South Africa considered only the relationship between aggregate capital flows and real exchange rate, modelling individual components of capital flows could enlighten policy formulation even further. The composition of the flows and their effects on the composition of aggregate demand determine the evolution of real exchange rate response to surges in capital flows. Through co-integration and vector error correction modelling techniques applied to South African data between 1990 and 2010, the study found out that foreign portfolio investment exerts the greatest appreciation effect on the South African real exchange rate, followed by other investment and finally foreign direct investment. Thus the impact of capital flows on real exchange rate in South Africa differs by type of capital. This presents varied policy implications.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
The impact of private capital flows on economic growth in South Africa
- Authors: Dzangare, Gillian
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa , Capital movements -- South Africa , Investments, Foreign -- South Africa , Development economics -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Free trade -- South Africa , Cointegration -- South Africa , South Africa -- Commercial policy
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , M Com
- Identifier: vital:11472 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1007134 , Economic development -- South Africa , Capital movements -- South Africa , Investments, Foreign -- South Africa , Development economics -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Free trade -- South Africa , Cointegration -- South Africa , South Africa -- Commercial policy
- Description: In this study an analysis of the long-term equilibrium relationship between economic growth measured as real GDP growth and private capital inflows is explored. The link between private capital inflows and economic growth is well-documented in the literature. However, a void in the literature relates to examining the cointegrating relationship between private capital inflows and economic growth particularly for South Africa. It is widely claimed that private capital inflows foster economic growth by closing the savings/investment gap. However, clarity on this point is necessary because of the seemingly unclear nature of the relationship in the literature. The exact form of this relationship as well as the nature of capital flows that could impact on real growth requires further investigation. Moreover, what exactly happens to this relationship in an economic crisis such as recently recorded in the global financial crisis is not clear. The analysis is undertaken by employing cointegration and vector error correction modeling approach using quarterly data for the period 1989q4-2009q4. This study employs the Johansen (1998) cointegration test. This technique distinguishes itself since it establishes the long run relationship between variables. Thereafter, residual diagnostic checks are performed on the variables. Our results show among others, that private capital inflows have impacted positively on the growth of the South African economy. The areas for further research that emerge from this study include the effect of some government policies on economic growth that should also receive more attention in the future since political instability slows down investment.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
- Authors: Dzangare, Gillian
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa , Capital movements -- South Africa , Investments, Foreign -- South Africa , Development economics -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Free trade -- South Africa , Cointegration -- South Africa , South Africa -- Commercial policy
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , M Com
- Identifier: vital:11472 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1007134 , Economic development -- South Africa , Capital movements -- South Africa , Investments, Foreign -- South Africa , Development economics -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Free trade -- South Africa , Cointegration -- South Africa , South Africa -- Commercial policy
- Description: In this study an analysis of the long-term equilibrium relationship between economic growth measured as real GDP growth and private capital inflows is explored. The link between private capital inflows and economic growth is well-documented in the literature. However, a void in the literature relates to examining the cointegrating relationship between private capital inflows and economic growth particularly for South Africa. It is widely claimed that private capital inflows foster economic growth by closing the savings/investment gap. However, clarity on this point is necessary because of the seemingly unclear nature of the relationship in the literature. The exact form of this relationship as well as the nature of capital flows that could impact on real growth requires further investigation. Moreover, what exactly happens to this relationship in an economic crisis such as recently recorded in the global financial crisis is not clear. The analysis is undertaken by employing cointegration and vector error correction modeling approach using quarterly data for the period 1989q4-2009q4. This study employs the Johansen (1998) cointegration test. This technique distinguishes itself since it establishes the long run relationship between variables. Thereafter, residual diagnostic checks are performed on the variables. Our results show among others, that private capital inflows have impacted positively on the growth of the South African economy. The areas for further research that emerge from this study include the effect of some government policies on economic growth that should also receive more attention in the future since political instability slows down investment.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
The impact of real exchange rates on economic growth: a case study of South Africa
- Authors: Sibanda, Kin
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa , Foreign exchange -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Money supply -- South Africa , Free trade -- South Africa , Saving and investment -- South Africa , Devaluation of currency -- South Africa , Currency question -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic policy
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , M Com
- Identifier: vital:11469 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1007129 , Economic development -- South Africa , Foreign exchange -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Money supply -- South Africa , Free trade -- South Africa , Saving and investment -- South Africa , Devaluation of currency -- South Africa , Currency question -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic policy
- Description: This study examined the impact of real exchange rates on economic growth in South Africa. The study used quarterly time series data for the period of 1994 to 2010. The Johansen cointegration and vector error correction model was used to determine the impact of real exchange on economic growth in South Africa. The explanatory variables in this study were real exchange rates, real interest rates, money supply, trade openness and gross fixed capital formation. Results from this study revealed that real exchange rates, gross fixed capital formation and real interest rates have a positive long run impact on economic growth, while money supply and trade openness have a negative long run impact on economic growth in South Africa. From the regression results, it was noted that undervaluation of the currency significantly hampers growth in the long run, whilst it significantly enhances economic growth in the short run. As such, the policy of depreciating the exchange rates to achieve higher growth rates is only effective in the short run and is not sustainable in the long run. Based on the findings of this study, the researcher recommended that misalignment (overvaluation and undervaluation) of the currency should be avoided at all costs. In addition, the results of the study showed that interest rates also have a significant impact on growth and since interest rates have a bearing on the exchange rate, it was recommended that the current monetary policy in South Africa should be maintained.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
- Authors: Sibanda, Kin
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa , Foreign exchange -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Money supply -- South Africa , Free trade -- South Africa , Saving and investment -- South Africa , Devaluation of currency -- South Africa , Currency question -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic policy
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , M Com
- Identifier: vital:11469 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1007129 , Economic development -- South Africa , Foreign exchange -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Money supply -- South Africa , Free trade -- South Africa , Saving and investment -- South Africa , Devaluation of currency -- South Africa , Currency question -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic policy
- Description: This study examined the impact of real exchange rates on economic growth in South Africa. The study used quarterly time series data for the period of 1994 to 2010. The Johansen cointegration and vector error correction model was used to determine the impact of real exchange on economic growth in South Africa. The explanatory variables in this study were real exchange rates, real interest rates, money supply, trade openness and gross fixed capital formation. Results from this study revealed that real exchange rates, gross fixed capital formation and real interest rates have a positive long run impact on economic growth, while money supply and trade openness have a negative long run impact on economic growth in South Africa. From the regression results, it was noted that undervaluation of the currency significantly hampers growth in the long run, whilst it significantly enhances economic growth in the short run. As such, the policy of depreciating the exchange rates to achieve higher growth rates is only effective in the short run and is not sustainable in the long run. Based on the findings of this study, the researcher recommended that misalignment (overvaluation and undervaluation) of the currency should be avoided at all costs. In addition, the results of the study showed that interest rates also have a significant impact on growth and since interest rates have a bearing on the exchange rate, it was recommended that the current monetary policy in South Africa should be maintained.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
The term structure of interest rates and economic activity in South Africa
- Authors: Shelile, Teboho
- Date: 2007
- Subjects: Finance -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions -- 21st century
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:994 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002729 , Finance -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions -- 21st century
- Description: Many research papers have documented the positive relationship between the slope of the yield curve and future real economic activity in different countries and different time periods. One explanation of this link is based on monetary policy. The forecasting ability of the term spread on economic growth is based on the fact that interest rates reflect the expectations of investors about the future economic situation when deciding about their plans for consumption and investment. This thesis examined the predictive ability of the term structure of interest rates on economic activity, and the effects of different monetary policy regimes on the predictive ability of the term spread. The South African experience offers a unique opportunity to examine this issue, as the country has experienced numerous monetary policy frameworks since the 1970s. The study employed the Generalised Method Moments technique, since it is considered to be more efficient than Ordinary Least Squares. Results presented in this thesis established that the term structure successfully predicted real economic activity during the entire research period with the exception of the last sub-period (2000-2004) when using the multivariate model. In the periods of financial market liberalisation and interest rates deregulation the term structure was found to be a better predictor of economic activity in South Africa. These findings emphasise the importance of considering the prevailing economic environment in testing the term structure theory.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
- Authors: Shelile, Teboho
- Date: 2007
- Subjects: Finance -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions -- 21st century
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:994 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002729 , Finance -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions -- 21st century
- Description: Many research papers have documented the positive relationship between the slope of the yield curve and future real economic activity in different countries and different time periods. One explanation of this link is based on monetary policy. The forecasting ability of the term spread on economic growth is based on the fact that interest rates reflect the expectations of investors about the future economic situation when deciding about their plans for consumption and investment. This thesis examined the predictive ability of the term structure of interest rates on economic activity, and the effects of different monetary policy regimes on the predictive ability of the term spread. The South African experience offers a unique opportunity to examine this issue, as the country has experienced numerous monetary policy frameworks since the 1970s. The study employed the Generalised Method Moments technique, since it is considered to be more efficient than Ordinary Least Squares. Results presented in this thesis established that the term structure successfully predicted real economic activity during the entire research period with the exception of the last sub-period (2000-2004) when using the multivariate model. In the periods of financial market liberalisation and interest rates deregulation the term structure was found to be a better predictor of economic activity in South Africa. These findings emphasise the importance of considering the prevailing economic environment in testing the term structure theory.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
- «
- ‹
- 1
- ›
- »