Reliability analysis: assessment of hardware and human reliability
- Authors: Mafu, Masakheke
- Date: 2017
- Subjects: Bayesian statistical decision theory , Reliability (Engineering) , Human machine systems , Probabilities , Markov processes
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/6280 , vital:21077
- Description: Most reliability analyses involve the analysis of binary data. Practitioners in the field of reliability place great emphasis on analysing the time periods over which items or systems function (failure time analyses), which make use of different statistical models. This study intends to introduce, review and investigate four statistical models for modeling failure times of non-repairable items, and to utilise a Bayesian methodology to achieve this. The exponential, Rayleigh, gamma and Weibull distributions will be considered. The performance of the two non-informative priors will be investigated. An application of two failure time distributions will be carried out. To meet these objectives, the failure rate and the reliability functions of failure time distributions are calculated. Two non-informative priors, the Jeffreys prior and the general divergence prior, and the corresponding posteriors are derived for each distribution. Simulation studies for each distribution are carried out, where the coverage rates and credible intervals lengths are calculated and the results of these are discussed. The gamma distribution and the Weibull distribution are applied to failure time data.The Jeffreys prior is found to have better coverage rate than the general divergence prior. The general divergence shows undercoverage when used with the Rayleigh distribution. The Jeffreys prior produces coverage rates that are conservative when used with the exponential distribution. These priors give, on average, the same average interval lengths and increase as the value of the parameter increases. Both priors perform similar when used with the gamma distribution and the Weibull distribution. A thorough discussion and review of human reliability analysis (HRA) techniques will be considered. Twenty human reliability analysis (HRA) techniques are discussed; providing a background, description and advantages and disadvantages for each. Case studies in the nuclear industry, railway industry, and aviation industry are presented to show the importance and applications of HRA. Human error has been shown to be the major contributor to system failure.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2017
- Authors: Mafu, Masakheke
- Date: 2017
- Subjects: Bayesian statistical decision theory , Reliability (Engineering) , Human machine systems , Probabilities , Markov processes
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/6280 , vital:21077
- Description: Most reliability analyses involve the analysis of binary data. Practitioners in the field of reliability place great emphasis on analysing the time periods over which items or systems function (failure time analyses), which make use of different statistical models. This study intends to introduce, review and investigate four statistical models for modeling failure times of non-repairable items, and to utilise a Bayesian methodology to achieve this. The exponential, Rayleigh, gamma and Weibull distributions will be considered. The performance of the two non-informative priors will be investigated. An application of two failure time distributions will be carried out. To meet these objectives, the failure rate and the reliability functions of failure time distributions are calculated. Two non-informative priors, the Jeffreys prior and the general divergence prior, and the corresponding posteriors are derived for each distribution. Simulation studies for each distribution are carried out, where the coverage rates and credible intervals lengths are calculated and the results of these are discussed. The gamma distribution and the Weibull distribution are applied to failure time data.The Jeffreys prior is found to have better coverage rate than the general divergence prior. The general divergence shows undercoverage when used with the Rayleigh distribution. The Jeffreys prior produces coverage rates that are conservative when used with the exponential distribution. These priors give, on average, the same average interval lengths and increase as the value of the parameter increases. Both priors perform similar when used with the gamma distribution and the Weibull distribution. A thorough discussion and review of human reliability analysis (HRA) techniques will be considered. Twenty human reliability analysis (HRA) techniques are discussed; providing a background, description and advantages and disadvantages for each. Case studies in the nuclear industry, railway industry, and aviation industry are presented to show the importance and applications of HRA. Human error has been shown to be the major contributor to system failure.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2017
Packed-bed rock thermal energy storage for concetrated solar power: enhancement of storage time and system efficiency
- Authors: Maidadi, Mohaman Bello
- Date: 2013
- Subjects: Solar thermal energy , Energy storage , Reliability (Engineering)
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MTech
- Identifier: vital:9639 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/d1020914
- Description: Solar thermal energy harvesting is a promising solution to offset the electricity demands of a growing population. The use of the technology is however still limited and this can most likely be attributed to the capital cost and also the intermittent nature of solar energy which requires incorporation of a storage system. To make the technology more attractive and effective, cheap means of harvesting solar energy and the development of efficient and inexpensive thermal energy storage devices will improve the performance of solar energy systems and the widespread use of solar energy. Heat storage in a packed-bed rock with air as the working fluid presents an attractive and simple solution for storing solar thermal energy and it is recommended for solar air heaters. A packed-bed rock storage system consists of rocks of good heat capacity packed in a storage tank. The working fluid (air) flows through the bed to transfer its energy. The major concern of the design for a packed-bed rock thermal storage system is to maximize the heat transfer and minimise the pressure drop across the storage tank and hence the pumping power. The time duration the stored energy can be preserved and the air flow wall effect through the bed are the common complications encountered in this system. This study presents an experimental and analytical analysis of a vacuum storage tank with the use of expanded perlite for high temperature thermal energy storage in a packed-bed of rocks. Dolerite rocks are used as the storage medium due to their high heat capacity and as they are locally available. To minimise the pressure drop across the tank, moderate rock sizes are used. The tank contains baffles, allowing an even spread of air to rock contact through the entire tank, therefore improving heat transfer. There is a good correlation between the predicted and the actual results (4 percent) which implies that the baffles incorporated inside the vacuum tank forces the air through the entire tank, thereby resulting in an even lateral temperature distribution across the tank. The investigation of heat loss showed that a vacuum with expanded perlite is a viable solution to high temperature heat storage for an extended period. The research also focuses on the investigation of a proposed low cost parabolic trough solar collector for an air heating system as shown in Figure (1.3). The use of a standard solar geyser evacuated tube (@R130 each) has cost benefits over the industry standard solar tubes normally used in concentrating solar power systems. A mathematical was developed to predict the thermal performance of proposed PTC and it was found that the measured results compared well with the predictions. The solar energy conversion efficiency of this collector is up to 70 percent. This research could impact positively on remote rural communities by providing a source of clean energy, especially for off-grid applications for schools, clinics and communication equipment. It could lead to a significant improvement in the cost performance, ease of installation and technical performance of storage systems for solar heating applications.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2013
- Authors: Maidadi, Mohaman Bello
- Date: 2013
- Subjects: Solar thermal energy , Energy storage , Reliability (Engineering)
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MTech
- Identifier: vital:9639 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/d1020914
- Description: Solar thermal energy harvesting is a promising solution to offset the electricity demands of a growing population. The use of the technology is however still limited and this can most likely be attributed to the capital cost and also the intermittent nature of solar energy which requires incorporation of a storage system. To make the technology more attractive and effective, cheap means of harvesting solar energy and the development of efficient and inexpensive thermal energy storage devices will improve the performance of solar energy systems and the widespread use of solar energy. Heat storage in a packed-bed rock with air as the working fluid presents an attractive and simple solution for storing solar thermal energy and it is recommended for solar air heaters. A packed-bed rock storage system consists of rocks of good heat capacity packed in a storage tank. The working fluid (air) flows through the bed to transfer its energy. The major concern of the design for a packed-bed rock thermal storage system is to maximize the heat transfer and minimise the pressure drop across the storage tank and hence the pumping power. The time duration the stored energy can be preserved and the air flow wall effect through the bed are the common complications encountered in this system. This study presents an experimental and analytical analysis of a vacuum storage tank with the use of expanded perlite for high temperature thermal energy storage in a packed-bed of rocks. Dolerite rocks are used as the storage medium due to their high heat capacity and as they are locally available. To minimise the pressure drop across the tank, moderate rock sizes are used. The tank contains baffles, allowing an even spread of air to rock contact through the entire tank, therefore improving heat transfer. There is a good correlation between the predicted and the actual results (4 percent) which implies that the baffles incorporated inside the vacuum tank forces the air through the entire tank, thereby resulting in an even lateral temperature distribution across the tank. The investigation of heat loss showed that a vacuum with expanded perlite is a viable solution to high temperature heat storage for an extended period. The research also focuses on the investigation of a proposed low cost parabolic trough solar collector for an air heating system as shown in Figure (1.3). The use of a standard solar geyser evacuated tube (@R130 each) has cost benefits over the industry standard solar tubes normally used in concentrating solar power systems. A mathematical was developed to predict the thermal performance of proposed PTC and it was found that the measured results compared well with the predictions. The solar energy conversion efficiency of this collector is up to 70 percent. This research could impact positively on remote rural communities by providing a source of clean energy, especially for off-grid applications for schools, clinics and communication equipment. It could lead to a significant improvement in the cost performance, ease of installation and technical performance of storage systems for solar heating applications.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2013
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