The impact of private capital flows on economic growth in South Africa
- Authors: Dzangare, Gillian
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa , Capital movements -- South Africa , Investments, Foreign -- South Africa , Development economics -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Free trade -- South Africa , Cointegration -- South Africa , South Africa -- Commercial policy
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , M Com
- Identifier: vital:11472 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1007134 , Economic development -- South Africa , Capital movements -- South Africa , Investments, Foreign -- South Africa , Development economics -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Free trade -- South Africa , Cointegration -- South Africa , South Africa -- Commercial policy
- Description: In this study an analysis of the long-term equilibrium relationship between economic growth measured as real GDP growth and private capital inflows is explored. The link between private capital inflows and economic growth is well-documented in the literature. However, a void in the literature relates to examining the cointegrating relationship between private capital inflows and economic growth particularly for South Africa. It is widely claimed that private capital inflows foster economic growth by closing the savings/investment gap. However, clarity on this point is necessary because of the seemingly unclear nature of the relationship in the literature. The exact form of this relationship as well as the nature of capital flows that could impact on real growth requires further investigation. Moreover, what exactly happens to this relationship in an economic crisis such as recently recorded in the global financial crisis is not clear. The analysis is undertaken by employing cointegration and vector error correction modeling approach using quarterly data for the period 1989q4-2009q4. This study employs the Johansen (1998) cointegration test. This technique distinguishes itself since it establishes the long run relationship between variables. Thereafter, residual diagnostic checks are performed on the variables. Our results show among others, that private capital inflows have impacted positively on the growth of the South African economy. The areas for further research that emerge from this study include the effect of some government policies on economic growth that should also receive more attention in the future since political instability slows down investment.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
- Authors: Dzangare, Gillian
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa , Capital movements -- South Africa , Investments, Foreign -- South Africa , Development economics -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Free trade -- South Africa , Cointegration -- South Africa , South Africa -- Commercial policy
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , M Com
- Identifier: vital:11472 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1007134 , Economic development -- South Africa , Capital movements -- South Africa , Investments, Foreign -- South Africa , Development economics -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Free trade -- South Africa , Cointegration -- South Africa , South Africa -- Commercial policy
- Description: In this study an analysis of the long-term equilibrium relationship between economic growth measured as real GDP growth and private capital inflows is explored. The link between private capital inflows and economic growth is well-documented in the literature. However, a void in the literature relates to examining the cointegrating relationship between private capital inflows and economic growth particularly for South Africa. It is widely claimed that private capital inflows foster economic growth by closing the savings/investment gap. However, clarity on this point is necessary because of the seemingly unclear nature of the relationship in the literature. The exact form of this relationship as well as the nature of capital flows that could impact on real growth requires further investigation. Moreover, what exactly happens to this relationship in an economic crisis such as recently recorded in the global financial crisis is not clear. The analysis is undertaken by employing cointegration and vector error correction modeling approach using quarterly data for the period 1989q4-2009q4. This study employs the Johansen (1998) cointegration test. This technique distinguishes itself since it establishes the long run relationship between variables. Thereafter, residual diagnostic checks are performed on the variables. Our results show among others, that private capital inflows have impacted positively on the growth of the South African economy. The areas for further research that emerge from this study include the effect of some government policies on economic growth that should also receive more attention in the future since political instability slows down investment.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
The direction of trade and its implications for labour in South Africa
- Authors: Cameron, Iona R
- Date: 2005
- Subjects: Labor demand -- South Africa , Labor market -- South Africa , Industrial relations -- South Africa , Foreign trade and employment -- South Africa , International economic relations , Free trade -- South Africa , South Africa -- Commercial policy
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MA
- Identifier: vital:948 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002682 , Labor demand -- South Africa , Labor market -- South Africa , Industrial relations -- South Africa , Foreign trade and employment -- South Africa , International economic relations , Free trade -- South Africa , South Africa -- Commercial policy
- Description: This aim of this thesis is to analyse the demand for labour from trade with a selection of South Africa’s trading partners. It is expected that labour demand will be greater in trade with developed blocs. Trade between developing blocs, however, is thought to be more skilled labour intensive and such trade should have greater linkages. This ought to feed through into greater labour demand so that South-South trade may be more ‘labour creating’ than expected. As it is more skill intensive, it may also be more dynamic, which has implications for future growth and development. Factor content methodology is used to assess labour demand. Calculations consider linkages to other sectors (which will increase labour demand) and the use of scarce resources (which has an opportunity cost to labour). The findings support the claim that trade with developing blocs is more professional labour intensive. Evidence that it may be more dynamic and have greater linkages to labour is borne out in exports to SADC. Greater labour demand through linkages, however, is not evident in net trade to SADC. Neither are they of significance in trade with any of the other developing blocs so labour effects due to linkages appear to be negligible. The advantages of South-South trade may rather lie in the dynamic benefits that trade in higher technology goods provides. When scarce resources such as capital and professional labour are taken into account, it is found that labour demand is negative in net trade to all blocs. However, even without the problem of scarce resources, most blocs have a negative demand for labour in net trade. The indication is that with the present trade patterns, South Africa cannot expect trade to increase labour demand. Policy which could improve this situation would be to increase labour force skills, improve the flexibility of the labour market and develop sectors which are both more advanced as well as labour intensive. Despite the negative impact of trade on labour in general, it is found that trade does differ by direction and that for each labour type there are certain blocs where labour demand is positive. This is also the case in net trade for particular sectors. Such information could be used as part of a targeted trade policy to assist in the marketing of particular sectors in trade and also for increasing labour demand for certain labour groups.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2005
- Authors: Cameron, Iona R
- Date: 2005
- Subjects: Labor demand -- South Africa , Labor market -- South Africa , Industrial relations -- South Africa , Foreign trade and employment -- South Africa , International economic relations , Free trade -- South Africa , South Africa -- Commercial policy
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MA
- Identifier: vital:948 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002682 , Labor demand -- South Africa , Labor market -- South Africa , Industrial relations -- South Africa , Foreign trade and employment -- South Africa , International economic relations , Free trade -- South Africa , South Africa -- Commercial policy
- Description: This aim of this thesis is to analyse the demand for labour from trade with a selection of South Africa’s trading partners. It is expected that labour demand will be greater in trade with developed blocs. Trade between developing blocs, however, is thought to be more skilled labour intensive and such trade should have greater linkages. This ought to feed through into greater labour demand so that South-South trade may be more ‘labour creating’ than expected. As it is more skill intensive, it may also be more dynamic, which has implications for future growth and development. Factor content methodology is used to assess labour demand. Calculations consider linkages to other sectors (which will increase labour demand) and the use of scarce resources (which has an opportunity cost to labour). The findings support the claim that trade with developing blocs is more professional labour intensive. Evidence that it may be more dynamic and have greater linkages to labour is borne out in exports to SADC. Greater labour demand through linkages, however, is not evident in net trade to SADC. Neither are they of significance in trade with any of the other developing blocs so labour effects due to linkages appear to be negligible. The advantages of South-South trade may rather lie in the dynamic benefits that trade in higher technology goods provides. When scarce resources such as capital and professional labour are taken into account, it is found that labour demand is negative in net trade to all blocs. However, even without the problem of scarce resources, most blocs have a negative demand for labour in net trade. The indication is that with the present trade patterns, South Africa cannot expect trade to increase labour demand. Policy which could improve this situation would be to increase labour force skills, improve the flexibility of the labour market and develop sectors which are both more advanced as well as labour intensive. Despite the negative impact of trade on labour in general, it is found that trade does differ by direction and that for each labour type there are certain blocs where labour demand is positive. This is also the case in net trade for particular sectors. Such information could be used as part of a targeted trade policy to assist in the marketing of particular sectors in trade and also for increasing labour demand for certain labour groups.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2005
The economic implications of trade policy reform in South Africa for the automotive industry in the Eastern Cape Province
- Authors: Onyango, Donald Otieno
- Date: 2000
- Subjects: Automobile industry and trade -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , South Africa -- Commercial policy
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MA
- Identifier: vital:936 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002669 , Automobile industry and trade -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , South Africa -- Commercial policy
- Description: South Africa is no longer a pariah state and has been fully integrated into the global family of nations. With the country’s accession to multilateral agreements like the World Trade Organization (WTO), there has been pressure on the government to abandon its hitherto protectionist trade regime in favour of free and fair trade. Trade liberalisation has had profound implications for the country’s manufacturing sector in general, and the automotive industry in particular, which has seen tariff protection radically slashed and import restrictions greatly eased. Not only has the market share of domestic producers fallen, but increases in exports have to date not matched those of imports. As a result there has been a deterioration in the sector’s balance of trade and a reduction in employment levels, at a time when the country desperately needs to create new jobs. Recent developments, however, suggest that this scenario may be set to change. The thesis applies orthodox neoclassical and heterodox approaches to trade policy to an assessment of the likely economic impact of trade liberalisation on the automotive industry in the Eastern Cape, and by extension nationally. The thesis argues that reliance on orthodox trade theory to inform the direction of trade policy, especially in a developing country context, is unlikely to bring about an adequate increase in the level of exports and employment. This is because liberalisation of the import regime is likely to increase import levels without necessarily stimulating export levels, a scenario which serves to negate the presupposed benefits of liberalisation. The study uses information from surveys conducted on both motor vehicle assemblers and component manufacturing firms to investigate the effect of trade liberalisation on the sector in the Province and finds that, by and large, the motor assemblers have not fared as badly as expected and have in fact positioned themselves to export more vehicles and components. The components sector has had to contend with increased competition from cheaper imports. The thesis, while acknowledging that, as far as possible, free trade is an optimal position, nonetheless argues that governments still have an important role to play in the promotion of industrialisation. The scope of government intervention should, however, be limited to selective interventions which are aimed at counteracting market failure and facilitating innovation and the diffusion of technological know-how. The thesis argues that institution of supply side measures, such as the encouragement of research and development (R&D), skills development and industrial training, is necessary for sustained growth in the manufacturing sector to be realised. The thesis also finds that, contrary to expectations, the liberalisation of the automotive sector has not had the desired effects. Despite an increase in the value of automotive exports and an overall trend towards reduced net foreign exchange usage, employment levels are on the decline. The thesis also finds that without major export initiatives by both motor vehicle assemblers and component manufacturers, the future of the industry will be placed in jeopardy, especially with reduced protection and incentives.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2000
- Authors: Onyango, Donald Otieno
- Date: 2000
- Subjects: Automobile industry and trade -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , South Africa -- Commercial policy
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MA
- Identifier: vital:936 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002669 , Automobile industry and trade -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , South Africa -- Commercial policy
- Description: South Africa is no longer a pariah state and has been fully integrated into the global family of nations. With the country’s accession to multilateral agreements like the World Trade Organization (WTO), there has been pressure on the government to abandon its hitherto protectionist trade regime in favour of free and fair trade. Trade liberalisation has had profound implications for the country’s manufacturing sector in general, and the automotive industry in particular, which has seen tariff protection radically slashed and import restrictions greatly eased. Not only has the market share of domestic producers fallen, but increases in exports have to date not matched those of imports. As a result there has been a deterioration in the sector’s balance of trade and a reduction in employment levels, at a time when the country desperately needs to create new jobs. Recent developments, however, suggest that this scenario may be set to change. The thesis applies orthodox neoclassical and heterodox approaches to trade policy to an assessment of the likely economic impact of trade liberalisation on the automotive industry in the Eastern Cape, and by extension nationally. The thesis argues that reliance on orthodox trade theory to inform the direction of trade policy, especially in a developing country context, is unlikely to bring about an adequate increase in the level of exports and employment. This is because liberalisation of the import regime is likely to increase import levels without necessarily stimulating export levels, a scenario which serves to negate the presupposed benefits of liberalisation. The study uses information from surveys conducted on both motor vehicle assemblers and component manufacturing firms to investigate the effect of trade liberalisation on the sector in the Province and finds that, by and large, the motor assemblers have not fared as badly as expected and have in fact positioned themselves to export more vehicles and components. The components sector has had to contend with increased competition from cheaper imports. The thesis, while acknowledging that, as far as possible, free trade is an optimal position, nonetheless argues that governments still have an important role to play in the promotion of industrialisation. The scope of government intervention should, however, be limited to selective interventions which are aimed at counteracting market failure and facilitating innovation and the diffusion of technological know-how. The thesis argues that institution of supply side measures, such as the encouragement of research and development (R&D), skills development and industrial training, is necessary for sustained growth in the manufacturing sector to be realised. The thesis also finds that, contrary to expectations, the liberalisation of the automotive sector has not had the desired effects. Despite an increase in the value of automotive exports and an overall trend towards reduced net foreign exchange usage, employment levels are on the decline. The thesis also finds that without major export initiatives by both motor vehicle assemblers and component manufacturers, the future of the industry will be placed in jeopardy, especially with reduced protection and incentives.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2000
The significance of trade policy in promoting the international competitiveness of South African industry
- Authors: Hofmeyr, Lynne Mary
- Date: 1996
- Subjects: South Africa -- Commerce , South Africa -- Commercial policy , International trade
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MA
- Identifier: vital:2781 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002991 , South Africa -- Commerce , South Africa -- Commercial policy , International trade
- Description: This study proposes to examme the significance of trade policy in promoting the international competitiveness of South African industry during the period from the early 1970s up until the present day. By providing a background of South Africa's past trade policies, it is argued that the origins of South Africa's low levels of competitiveness essentially lie in the apartheid years where trade policies were not linked to the attainment of international competitiveness and improved productivity. The study then reviews the development of South Africa's trade policies in the 1990s. In so doing, it reveals weaknesses in the areas of implementation which are critiqued in greater detail by using the clothing and textile industries as a case study, and other selected examples. The study finally concludes that trade policy is crucial to global competitiveness and that it is the responsibility of all parties concerned to ensure that trade policies enhance and not inhibit competitiveness.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 1996
- Authors: Hofmeyr, Lynne Mary
- Date: 1996
- Subjects: South Africa -- Commerce , South Africa -- Commercial policy , International trade
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MA
- Identifier: vital:2781 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002991 , South Africa -- Commerce , South Africa -- Commercial policy , International trade
- Description: This study proposes to examme the significance of trade policy in promoting the international competitiveness of South African industry during the period from the early 1970s up until the present day. By providing a background of South Africa's past trade policies, it is argued that the origins of South Africa's low levels of competitiveness essentially lie in the apartheid years where trade policies were not linked to the attainment of international competitiveness and improved productivity. The study then reviews the development of South Africa's trade policies in the 1990s. In so doing, it reveals weaknesses in the areas of implementation which are critiqued in greater detail by using the clothing and textile industries as a case study, and other selected examples. The study finally concludes that trade policy is crucial to global competitiveness and that it is the responsibility of all parties concerned to ensure that trade policies enhance and not inhibit competitiveness.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 1996
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