The Effects of exchange rates on bilateral trade balances of SACU members states with their trading partners
- Authors: Mhaka, Simbarashe
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa , Purchasing power parity -- Econometric models
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/50371 , vital:42152
- Description: The fluctuations of exchange rates prevent countries from achieving stability in their external account records. Appreciation or depreciation has effects on international trade. This thesis examines the relationship between exchange rate fluctuations on bilateral trade balances focusing on the SACU region. There are several theories made to explain the relationship between exchange rate and trade balances. In examining this phenomenon, this thesis will unveil if the purchasing power parity theory, the Marshall-Lerner condition and the J-curve effect holds in the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) countries. This analysis is divided into three parts. The first part examines the stability of the exchange rate in the SACU countries in the long run as given by the purchasing power parity. To test for the Purchasing Power Parity theory, the recently developed powerful unit root test was applied with multiple smooth structural breaks of Omay (2015), based on a Fractional Frequency Flexible Fourier Form (FFFFF) on unique data of SACU countries covering the monthly period of 1995M01-2017M11. The Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) results show that the nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) of all SACU members does not provide evidence for PPP theory. In terms of the real effective exchange rate (REER), the PPP condition holds in the case of South Africa only. Further unit root investigations were carried out using the panel data for all SACU members, NEER and REER. The FFFFF test results for panel data shows strong evidence of the PPP while the standard DF test rejects PPP theory in the SACU’s NEER. Both the standard DF and the FFFFF tests show strong evidence of PPP theory in the case of SACU’s REER. The second section of the analysis examines the Marshall-Lerner condition employing annual data from the period of 1980-2017. The import and export model were examined firstly in a time series format and then in a panel data format. The time series data was examined using the ARDL (PMG) model while the panel data used the panel ARDL, fully modified OLS (FMOLS) method and the Dynamic OLS (DOLS) method of estimation. The PMG/ARDL model shows no evidence to support the existence of the Marshall-Lerner condition in the short run for all SACU members. However, only two out of five countries show evidence of the Marshall-Lerner condition in the long run. There is strong evidence of the Marshall-Lerner condition in Namibia and Botswana in the long run using the PMG/ARDL model.
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- Date Issued: 2020
Elasticity of the South African economy towards portfolio investments in BRICS countries
- Authors: Taonezvi, Lovemore
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/44537 , vital:38141
- Description: The emerging economies of Brazil, Russia, India, and China (BRIC) have been experiencing high growth rates since the turn of the millennium, whereas economic growth has been elusive in South Africa. As the newest member of BRICS, South Africa is expected to economically benefit through, amongst others, increases in capital flows, foreign investments by local firms, and increases in trade. Such benefits are anticipated to propel the country’s economic growth, thereby helping it to tackle its chronic problems of high unemployment, poverty, and economic inequality. The inclusion of South Africa in BRICS has, however, been viewed by critics as erroneous, since the country has, inter alia, poor economic growth; a small economy and population; and political instability. While foreign portfolio investment (FPI) inflows to South Africa have surged in recent years, economic growth has remained lacklustre. These flows have also faced sudden reversals, especially during the financial crisis of 2007-2009. With the potential to leverage its growth from intra-BRICS FPI inflows, it becomes of paramount significance for policymakers to have knowledge of the South African economy’s responsiveness to such inflows. With a theoretical framework based on the endogenous growth model, an augmented Cobb-Douglas production function was extended in this thesis in order to study the relationship between BRICS growth and intra-BRICS FPI in a dynamic panel data generalised method of moments (GMM) context. Similarly, the South African economy’s elasticity towards intraBRICS FPI was estimated. Vector autoregressive (VAR) analysis was used to evaluate the responsiveness of South Africa’s economy to an innovative shock to intra-BRICS FPI. Annual and quarterly data for the period 2000-2016 were used in panel data and VAR analysis, respectively. It was found that intra-BRICS FPI flows have a positive and statistically significant relationship with BRICS growth, while the elasticity of the South African economy to these flows is estimated at 0.007. Additionally, the efficiency and accessibility dimensions of financial market development do not assist FPI in promoting growth in BRICS, while financial market depth does. South Africa’s BRICS membership has a positive effect on its own growth, while for other BRICS nations, this membership is negative and insignificant. Credit rating downgrades have a negative and insignificant impact on economic growth, while the negative impact for inflation, government expenditure, and total labour employment is significant. Conversely, gross capital formation and trade openness have a positive and significant relationship with BRICS growth. The study also determined that a unit shock on intra-BRICS FPI resulted in negative fluctuations of South Africa’s economy within the first eight quarters before being positive and mostly constant thereafter. By supplementing domestic savings and facilitating the international integration of domestic financial markets, FPI promotes growth in BRICS. The short-term, ease of reversibility, and speculative nature of FPI are amongst some of the reasons for its destabilising effect on South Africa’s economy. Furthermore, inflation is a key determinant of FPI inflows to South Africa. Additional BRIC cooperation in FPI and trade; increased investments in domestic capital; reductions of inflation and corruption; investments in education and skills development; and stock market reforms are some of the recommendations for BRIC, and South Africa in particular. South Africa can consider prudential use of a mix of capital account controls, as well as fiscal and monetary policies to cushion its economy from FPI shocks in the short- to medium-term.
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- Date Issued: 2019
The future of banking in South Africa towards 2055: disruptive innovation scenarios
- Authors: Koekemoer, Jonathan
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Finance -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , DPhil
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/40577 , vital:36184
- Description: The research effort developed four possible scenarios for the future of banking in South Africa towards 2055. The scenarios sought to stimulate thought on the possible, probable, plausible and preferred effects of disruptive innovation and regulation in the South African banking sector. The scenarios were developed in strict accordance with the 5 stages, and 9 steps, of the scenario-based planning process of futures studies. A conceptual futures studies model for banking in South Africa was developed to guide and clarify the way in which the research on South African banking can be integrated into the body of existing futures studies theory. The research study began with a comprehensive environmental scan, where various megatrends and driving forces are identified. A PESTEL analysis provided a deeper understanding of the driving forces. A Real-Time Delphi study was conducted in order to validate and prioritise the megatrends and driving forces that emerged. As a result, the research study was able to present four plausible scenarios that provide a better understanding of the future of banking in South Africa over the decades to come. The research presents banking as a complex, multi-faceted sector that is heavily influenced by advances in technology. The Real-Time Delphi research allowed the aggregation of expert knowledge. This is used as a guide to assist decision-makers and industry leaders in the adoption of appropriate business models and strategies towards a preferred future state. The research defined the Integrated Vision as the preferred future state for the South African banking sector towards 2055. The study closes a research gap where current strategies deviate from proposed strategies that drive the achievement of the Integrated Vision by 2055. Finally, contextually aligned practical recommendations are provided to assist decision-makers, industry leaders and change agents to work towards a preferable future state. The proposed recommendations are placed into broad categories of innovation, financial inclusion and collaborative regulatory relationships. The research makes a meaningful contribution to the South African banking sector by introducing a forward-looking, systems-thinking approach to disruptive innovation and regulation in the South African context.
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- Date Issued: 2019
The relationship between electricity supply and economic growth in South Africa
- Authors: Khobai, Hlalefang
- Date: 2016
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa , Electric power failures -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , DCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/9251 , vital:26483
- Description: Since democratisation of South Africa in 1994, the economy of South Africa underwent significant structural changes. Among these structural changes was electrification for the poor rural areas. During the apartheid era, about two-thirds of the nation lacked access to electricity and hence, provision for electricity to everyone was considered a crucial part of the economic development, post 1994. Since then economic growth and the demand for electricity in South Africa have been increasing at an unprecedented rate. The electricity supply did not increase proportionally to the increase in the consumption of electricity. In responding to the high increase in the demand for electricity, the electricity utility planned to build new power stations and put back in use the ones which were mothballed. But unfortunately the plan for investment in these power stations was late and in 2008, the existing power stations could not manage to supply enough electricity. The demand for electricity was such that it nearly damaged the power generating circuit and the electricity supply utility had to resort to load shedding. The imbalance between electricity supply and demand led to industrial sectors losing on production and as a result led to a downturn in economic growth. It also led to an increase in electricity prices which had a negative effect on individual and private sectors’ purchasing power. It is against this background that this study is designed to investigate the long term relationship between economic growth and electricity supply. The additional variables such as electricity prices, trade openness, capital and employment were included as intermittent variables to form a multivariate framework. This study also assesses the Granger causality between these variables to determine which variable supersedes the other. Two models were applied in this study: The Auto-regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds approach and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) Granger-causality. The ARDL bounds technique was used to detect the long term relationship between economic growth, electricity supply, electricity prices, trade openness, capital and employment using annual data from 1985 to 2014. The ARDL technique was chosen over the conventional models such as Engle and Granger (1987) and Johansen (1988) for the research for the following reasons: Firstly, the ARDL technique uses a single reduced form of equation to examine the long term relationship of the variables as opposed to the conventional Johansen test that employs a system of equations. Secondly, it is suitable to use for testing co-integration when a small sample data is used. Thirdly, it does not require the underlying variables to be integrated of similar order e.g. integrated of order zero I(0), integrated of order one I(1) or fractionally integrated, for it to be applicable. Lastly, it does not rely on the properties of unit root datasets and this makes it possible for the Granger-causality to be applied in testing the long term relationships between the variables. The VECM Granger-causality is used to examine the Granger-causality between the chosen variables. It was chosen for its ability to develop longer term forecasting when dealing with an unconstrained model. The unit root results confirmed that the variables were stationary at first difference using Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF), Phillips and Perron (PP) and Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shit (KPSS). The ARDL bound approach outcomes revealed that economic growth, electricity supply, trade openness, electricity prices, employment and capital move together in the long term. There were three co-integrated equations under the export and trade models while under the import model there was one co-integrated equation. The results are such that electricity prices have a negative impact on economic growth. The results further evidenced that; electricity supply, trade openness, employment and capital have a positive impact on economic growth in the long term. The VECM Granger causality findings suggested a unidirectional causality flowing from electricity supply, trade, exports, electricity prices, employment and capital to economic growth in the long term. There was another unidirectional causality established flowing from economic growth, trade openness, electricity prices, employment and capital to electricity supply. A one-way causality flowing from economic growth, electricity supply, electricity prices, employment and capital to export was evidenced. Overall, the study’s results of bidirectional Granger-causality between electricity supply and economic growth have a number of implications for forecasters and policy makers. This feedback hypothesis implies that the high level of economic growth leads to a high level of electricity supply, which would stimulate economic growth. Hence, South Africa demonstrates a kind of electricity dependence in a manner that a sufficiently large supply of electricity seems to ensure high economic growth. Electricity supply is a vitally important factor for economic growth in South Africa. It is therefore necessary that South African policy makers formulate investor friendly policies that will encourage, promote and attract capital inflows to stimulate electricity supply. The South African government needs to primarily deregulate the electricity supply industry which is owned by Eskom (a monopoly), and allow more investors into this industry. The government should promote a change to other forms of energy sources such as renewable energy sources which will play an important role in restoring the balance between electricity supply and consumption. Moreover, it is recommended that the electricity regulator should take steps to curb the severe electricity price increases and to ensure prices affordable to the poor communities. The policy makers need to implement some investor friendly policies that will encourage and promote capital formation. Furthermore, the government should invest towards more job creating sectors such as (Small and Medium Enterprises) SMEs. Finally, the government should take into consideration the importance of trade openness to attract international investments into the economy. It is hoped that the findings of this study would prove beneficial to policy makers in South Africa and elsewhere in the world where power outages are experienced, and assist them in combating the problem.
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- Date Issued: 2016
Possible futures for the Republic of South Africa towards 2055
- Authors: Adendorff, Christian Michael
- Date: 2013
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa , Sustainable development -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , DBA
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/7816 , vital:24294
- Description: The purpose of this thesis was to develop four scenarios for South Africa over the next forty years: Mandela's Dream in which positive elements come into function for South Africa's economy and governance; the Historical African Syndrome, in which the key driving forces unfold in an uneven pattern, or have a differentiated impact on South Africa's economy; the Good, the Bad and the Ugly in which less good governance prevails, but where a fortunate economy and firm national management allow South Africa to become competitive and benefit from satisfactory economic growth; and the Pyramid Syndrome Scenario in which negative regional drivers of change corrode positive policies and initiatives in a manner which compounds the pre-existing threats to South Africa's growth.
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- Date Issued: 2013
A public-private partnership model for the improvemnet of local economic development in South African metropolitan government
- Authors: Binza, Mzikayise Shakespeare
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa , Public-private sector cooperation -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , DPhil
- Identifier: vital:8159 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/923 , Economic development -- South Africa , Public-private sector cooperation -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Description: The post-apartheid developmental state of South Africa had a challenge of turning around an economy that was on deficit which it inherited in 1994, to a positive growth that will be sustainable and shared. The process followed in creating a sustainable economic development was first establishing a constitutional democratic government which was constituted in terms of the provisions of the Constitution of the Republic of South Africa, 1996, as three equal spheres of government, viz: the national, provincial and local spheres of government. Initiatives on innovative economic development become a reconstruction programme not only of the national and provincial spheres of government, but also of the local sphere of government which is closest to the people it governs and deliver municipal goods and services to. For an example, section 152 (1) (c) of the Constitution of the Republic of South Africa, 1996, provides that the local sphere of government which is constituted by 283 wall-to-wall municipalities must “improve social and economic development” of the people. Out of the 283 municipalities, 6 are metropolitan municipalities, and are the: City of Cape Town, City of Johannesburg, City of Tshwane, Ekurhuleni, Ethekwini, and Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality. This research project is limited to the City of Cape Town (CCT) and the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipalities (NMBM). In the second process, a number of legislations and policies providing for external mechanisms to be used to improve local economic development (LED) in an inclusive, shared and equitable manner were introduced. Policies that were introduced by the democratic government and serve as policy directive for economic development are: the Reconstruction and Development Programme (RDP) of 1994; the Growth, Employment and Redistribution (GEAR) of 1996; and the Accelerated and Shared Growth Initiative of South Africa (ASGISA) of 2006. The relevant legislations to the local sphere of government which were introduced and provided for the appropriate mechanism for enabling sustainable growth of local economies by developmental local government in partnerships with other stakeholders such as private sector and civil society movements are: the Local Government: Municipal Systems Act, 2000 (Act 32 of 2000); Municipal Service Policy of 2000; Guidelines on Municipal Service Partnerships of 2006-2010; and the National Framework for Local Economic Development in South Africa (NFLED) of 2006-2010. The above xviii legislations provide the following external mechanisms to improve local economic development in municipal areas, viz: public-private partnerships; public-public partnerships, and public-community partnerships. This research project is about the first external mechanism which is the public-private partnerships (PPPs) to enable municipalities to improve local economies that provide for job creations and employment for the local inhabitants. According to the National Treasury Regulation 16 (2004:1), PPP means a “commercial transaction between an institution, for example a metropolitan government, and a private party in terms of which: 1. The private party either performs an institutional function on behalf of the institution [in this regard a metropolitan government] for a specified or indefinite period or acquires the use of a state property for its own commercial purposes for a specified or indefinite period. 2. The private party receives a benefit for performing the function or by utilising state property, either by way of compensation from a revenue fund, or by charges or fees collected by the private party from users or customers of a service provided for them; or a combination of such compensation and such fees”. The first goal of this research project is to develop the most appropriate public-private partnership model for South African metropolitan government with special reference to the City of Cape Town (CCT) and the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality (NMBM) in enabling and guiding them to improve and sustain local economic development (LED) in their respective areas of jurisdiction. The application of public-private partnerships (PPPs) as a policy strategy to achieve local economic development (LED) in CCT and NMBM was investigated, in order to determine whether these activities can be improved. Followed is the development of a conceptual framework for optimal PPP implementation in order to improve local economic development in the CCT and NMBM and other metropolitan and municipal areas in South Africa. A more appropriate PPP model called the Participatory Development Systems Model (PDSM) has been constructed for this purpose from a number of sources and proven good practices both locally in South Africa and internationally. The PDSM model uses the strategic prioritisation and management by a municipality of the integrated development of physical, economic, human and social capital in its region in a more participatory way, as a point of departure for PPPs. The PDSM model for PPPs also emphasises consistent systematic assessment of these strategies against the strategic LED goals of the municipality concerned in order to ensure that lessons are learnt from these experiences and used to refine or revise future LED and PPP strategies accordingly. This thesis makes an original contribution to the existing body of knowledge about the promotion of LED through PPPs in metropolitan municipalities in South Africa and elsewhere, by conceptualising PPPs in a clear and coherent way as an integrated dimension of strategic management processes in municipalities that need to be implemented in a more participatory way in order to achieve the overall strategic goal of sustainable LED.
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- Date Issued: 2009