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Investigating the impact of public debt on economic development in South Africa

  • Authors: Ntliziyombi, Ongezwa
  • Date: 2024-04
  • Subjects: Debts, Public -- South Africa , Debts, Public -- Management , Economic development -- South Africa
  • Language: English
  • Type: Master's theses , text
  • Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/65342 , vital:74093
  • Description: The burden of public debt is an economic issue that has dominated debate in several areas of our country. The post-financial crisis era has seen an increase in public debt at the international, national, and sub-national levels. The study explores the impact of public debt on economic development in South Africa from 1970 to 2022 using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. Based on the regressions results, the null hypothesis is rejected in favour of the alternative which means that there is a negative relationship between public debt and economic development in South Africa. According to the research findings, South Africa should strengthen its production capacity and infrastructure in order to increase exports that would boost investment opportunities while allowing the economy to expand without resorting to debt. Policymakers must consider capital investment as a method of expanding the South African economy's productive capacity. , Thesis (MCom) -- Faculty of Business and Economic Sciences, School of Economics, Development and Tourism, 2024
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  • Date Issued: 2024-04

The determinants of foreign direct investment inflows into South Africa

  • Authors: Campher, Renate
  • Date: 2024-04
  • Subjects: Investments, Foreign -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , South Africa -- Foreign economic relations
  • Language: English
  • Type: Master's theses , text
  • Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/64907 , vital:73958
  • Description: Through mechanisms such as knowledge transfer and productivity spillovers, foreign direct investment (FDI) is viewed as a critical driver of growth in developing economies. The flow of FDI into a country can benefit both the investing entity and the host government. This study employed ordinary least square (OLS) regression to examine the factors that determine FDI in South Africa using time series data from 1996 to 2021. The results demonstrate that gross domestic product (GDP), institutional quality, trade openness, the regulatory environment, and the real effective exchange rate (REER) all have positive effects on FDI flows into South Africa. To sustain and promote FDI inflows, the government of South Africa must ensure that the country remains attractive for investment by better promoting good governance, creating jobs to increase growth, maintaining free and fair elections in 2024, forging alliances with trading partners outside of Africa, speeding up all policy processes that may hinder the inflow of FDI, and decreasing government debt. , Thesis (MPhil) -- Faculty of Business and Economic Sciences, School of Economics, Development and Tourism, 2024
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  • Date Issued: 2024-04

Housing market dynamics and economic growth in South Africa (1994 – 2019)

  • Authors: Muchaonyerwa, Forward
  • Date: 2023-09
  • Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa , Housing -- Prices -- South Africa , Housing forecasting -- South Africa
  • Language: English
  • Type: Doctoral theses , text
  • Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10353/28628 , vital:74477
  • Description: The housing market contributes significantly to economic growth. On this background, the study examined South Africa’s housing market dynamics, particularly determinants of demand, supply, and formal housing prices. Furthermore, the study looked at the impact of housing prices on economic growth from 1994:Q1 to 2019:Q2. The study period is important as it covers the new political dispensation in South Africa where the country entered a new democracy in 1994. The first three objectives of the study were to identify the determinants of housing demand, supply, and prices. The theory of demand and supply provided the theoretical framework for these models. Estimation of the housing demand, supply and price models was done by the employing Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) technique. The Three Stage Least Squares (3SLS) model was estimated for robustness. Findings from SUR and 3SLS confirmed that Housing Demand (HD) is negatively and significantly influenced by residential Building Costs per Square Meter (BCSM), Housing Supply (HS) and Financial Costs (FC); and positively influenced by House Prices (HP). In addition, HS is negatively affected by BCSM, HD, Production Costs (PC) and Urban Population (UP); and positively influenced by HP and Residential Construction Confidence (RC). Lastly, HP are negatively affected by Prime Overdraft Rate (POR) and RC; and positively influenced by BCSM, HS, HD, Coincident Business Cycle Indicator (CBC) and residential Valuation (VAL). The fourth objective was to examine the impact of house prices on economic growth. An economic model was specified with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as its dependent variable. The new growth theory provided the theoretical framework for this model. The Johansen co-integration technique confirmed a long run-term relationship between economic growth and house prices. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) was estimated to analyze the long and short run relationship among the variables. Empirical results confirmed that house prices have a positive impact on economic growth. Results further confirmed that CBC and Unemployment Rate (UR) are also positively related to GDP. POR and Leading Business Cycle indicator (LEBC) are negatively related to GDP. Granger Causality test was performed to analyze the causality between house prices and economic growth. The results indicated that there is a long run unidirectional causality from house prices to economic growth. With these results, the study recommends policy formation emanating from continuous research by establishing a human settlement agency or task team. The team can establish procedures for data collection and maintain a database for all kinds of housing market data. Their mandate includes research on commissioning of new towns and/or cities to boost housing supply. The government should avail more land and relax restrictive regulations and minimize red tape to ensure that houses are supplied to meet the growing demand as well as to stabilize prices. Policies to promote confidence and stabilize building costs are needed. These variables indicated significant influence on housing dynamics. It is also recommended to incentivize households to participate on the mortgage market. This assist both households through the wealth effect which positively influence increase in economic activity in South Africa. , Thesis (DCom) -- Faculty of Management and Commerce, 2023
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  • Date Issued: 2023-09

The impact of domestic investment on economic growth in South Africa: a Sectoral Approach (1993 to 2020)

  • Authors: Hobongwana, Khungile Goodwell https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0223-7370
  • Date: 2023-01
  • Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa , Investments -- South Africa , Gross domestic product
  • Language: English
  • Type: Master's theses , text
  • Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10353/26753 , vital:65982
  • Description: This study examined the impact of domestic investment on economic growth in South Africa: a sectoral approach from 1993 to 2020. The overall results as discussed by panel data ARDL revealed that domestic investment has an impact on at least one sectoral economic growth in South Africa in the long run. The panel data ARDL test reveals that domestic investment, employment, imports and exports have a significant correlation to influence GDP in the long run in at least one of the sectors. A pairwise Dumitrescu Hurlin panel causality tests determine that domestic investment (DI) does not homogeneously cause gross domestic product (GDP). This is because in South Africa the sectoral or structural change development relies much on foreign direct investment (FDI) rather than domestic investment, hence the negative homogeneous results. Therefore, we need to attract DI as the result shows, because a positive relationship can be expected between domestic investment and economic growth in line with the Keynesian theory where investment is expected to promote economic growth. The new-endogenous growth theory of investment that can be applied in detecting the effect of aggregate and disaggregate domestic investment on sectoral economic growth and aggregate economic growth. , Thesis (MCom) -- Faculty of Management and Commerce, 2023
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  • Date Issued: 2023-01

The impact of Taxation and corruption on economic growth in South Africa

  • Authors: Rabinda, Aluwani Malvin
  • Date: 2022-12
  • Subjects: Taxation , Corrupt practices , Economic development -- South Africa
  • Language: English
  • Type: Master's theses , Thesis
  • Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/59832 , vital:62444
  • Description: Developing countries, such as South Africa, have been on a mission to reduce corruption, particularly in the public sector, and to collect as much revenue as possible through taxation to fund the government expenditures. Low levels of corruption, preferable zero and higher tax collections, can boost a country's economic growth and development by creating jobs and increasing economic activity, which leads to economic growth. South Africa is one of the economies that are characterised by high levels of corruption. For South Africa to attract more foreign investors in the country, it should ensure that resources are used efficiently and that any act of corruption is punished. This study looked at the effects of taxation and corruption on economic growth from 1975 to 2019. An econometric analysis technique was used in the study to test the impact of taxation and corruption on economic growth. The augmented Dickey–Fuller method was used to test for unit root. According to the results of the tests, unit root l(1) is rejected in favour of the stationarity alternative. The empirical analysis used the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) bounds testing approach of cointegration advocated by Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (2001) to examine for the longrun equilibrium among taxation and corruption on economic growth. The Wald causality test was also used to investigate the causal relationship between taxation, corruption, and economic growth. According to the Bounds test results, there is long-run co-integrating positive relationship between trade openness and GDP, gross capital formation, Corruption, and income taxation. Furthermore, when dependent variable was tested for longrun impact, the results confirmed that taxation and corruption have insignificant impact on economic growth. Trade openness, as a percentage of GDP, has insignificant positive relationship with economic growth in South Africa. Gross Capital Formation, as a percentage of GDP, is positively related to economic growth. Furthermore, short-run findings suggest a positive significant relationship between trade openness as a percentage of Gross domestic product. Corruption and income taxation have negative and insignificant effect on GDP in the short term. Furthermore, GDP and gross capital formation have negative relationship. V Government should also encourage the culture of transparency and accountability as far as corruption is concerned to stimulate economic growth. This will also create a culture where government officials are called upon to explain their government expenditure patterns and be held accountable for any misuse of any funds flowing into the country. , Thesis (MCom)-- Faculty of Business and Economic Science, 2022
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  • Date Issued: 2022-12

Determinants of inclusive growth in South Africa: a macroeconomic approach

  • Authors: Makala, Zizo https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4875-6531
  • Date: 2022-08
  • Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa , Macroeconomics -- South Africa
  • Language: English
  • Type: Master's/ theses , text
  • Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10353/28761 , vital:74913
  • Description: Available literature substantiates that economic growth is imperative but not sufficient to improve the living standards of a substantial percentage of South Africa’s population. The benefits of growth are also barely equitably distributed among the different groups of society in South Africa. Based on this background, the study empirically examines the factors that determine inclusive growth in South Africa. The study utilised annual data from 1991 to 2020, employing the autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration to evaluate the long-run and short-run linkage among the variables of interest. Based on the Social Opportunity Function, a model linking inclusive growth and its determinants was specified. The empirical results suggest a positive relationship between Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and inclusive growth (LGDPPPE), in both the short run and the long run, implying that, FDI inflows significantly drive inclusive growth. Therefore, there is a need for South Africa to open economic borders to benefit from the opportunities for inclusive growth through external capital. In contrast, Inflation (INFL) portrays a negative influence on LGDPPPE, both in the short and long run alike, suggesting that the rate of inclusive growth is higher when inflation rate is lower, leading to the implication that, to significantly help accelerate inclusive growth in South Africa, the control of inflation must be a major object of economic policy. In the short run, the Level of Income (LGDPPC), Government Consumption (GGFCE), Population Growth (POPG), Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), and Trade Openness (TOP) indicate no noticeable influence on LGDPPPE. However, in the long run, LGDPPC, POPG and TOP turned out positive and statistically significant. This finding suggests that policies that make the South African economy open to trade with the rest of the world are essential for inclusive economic growth. Furthermore, the finding implies that population growth is not detrimental to growth inclusiveness in South Africa and policy measures that enhance the population’s productivity to reap demographic dividends should be encouraged. , Thesis (MCom) -- Faculty of Management and Commerce, 2022
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  • Date Issued: 2022-08

Human Resource Development model for cultivating a culture of innovation in local government: the case of Buffalo City Metropolitan Municipality, South Africa

  • Authors: Mutangabende, Shepherd https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3231-7400
  • Date: 2022-08
  • Subjects: Local government -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Economic development -- South Africa , Local government -- Technological innovations -- South Africa
  • Language: English
  • Type: Doctoral theses , text
  • Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10353/28817 , vital:75128
  • Description: Local government in South Africa is grappling with transforming democratic, accountable, and sustainable service provision to communities. Human Resource Management (HRM) plays an instrumental role in cultivating an innovative public service culture. It enables such a culture through workforce planning, recruitment, selection, induction, rewarding, budget allocation, training, and development. A culture of innovation provides an opportunity for local government to respond to pressing local needs within legislative and financial constraints. This study adopted a pragmatic research philosophy, and an exploratory sequential mixed methods research strategy and case study research design, to investigate human resources development strategies for cultivating a culture of innovation in local government, using a case study of Buffalo City Metropolitan Municipality, in South Africa. Qualitative data was collected from twenty (n=20) purposefully sampled information-rich participants through indepth interviews and quantitative data from eighty (n=80) line officials using a structured questionnaire. Research findings indicate that HRM in BCMM is not optimally utilising HRM strategies to cultivate a culture of innovation. Study results show insufficiency of qualified human capital, which therefore, impose constraints on the capacity of the municipality to optimally cultivate a culture of innovation. Findings show that participants in leadership positions often lacked requisite knowledge and capacity on workforce planning, which is necessary for human capital needs analysis and for identifying skills gaps, which would subsequently inform recruitment and selection, induction, and human resources development of municipal human capital. Recruitment and selection processes as well as induction programmes are also often devoid of innovation human resources development practices and strategies. There were often not much rewards for employees who come up with innovative ideas or methods of executing their key performance areas. Lack of rewards was a barrier to innovation as the question of “what is in it for me?” remain unanswered. This could be the reason why there were few innovative activities taking place in local government and the case study municipality. Results further suggest that the organisational culture of the case study municipality was mostly conservative, as employees did not have fecund opportunities for trial and error of new methods of executing performance tasks, often strictly adhering to standard operating procedures. The organisational culture in the case study municipality was thus risk aversive, and a significant barrier to innovation. There was often poor communication on the availability of budget allocation for innovation. The study, therefore, recommended more effective and innovative workforce planning and using that information during recruitment and selection. It also recommended using rewards to motivate employees to be innovative, allowing trial and error, to test new ideas and methods as ways of cultivating a culture of innovation. There is thus a significant need and demand for transformation and innovation in local governance, heightened by increasing municipal dysfunction and citizen expectation. As such, providing human capital with requisite knowledge and skills, retaining talent, and inducing human resources to be immobile, build up high performance work systems (HPWS), essential for achieving sustainable local government functionality and municipal performance. Human Resource Development thus play a significant role, as it essentially provides training and development programmes to equip workers with innovative skills needed in local government. The study thus developed and recommended a human resource development model which could be contextually adapted by municipalities to cultivate and foster a culture of innovation for optimum municipal functionality. , Thesis (DPA) -- Faculty of Management and Commerce, 2022
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  • Date Issued: 2022-08

The effects of household agricultural income on the adoption of electrical appliances and energy security among rural households in Mnquma Local Municipality

  • Authors: Ntonjane, P https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9432-9031
  • Date: 2021-09
  • Subjects: Energy security , Sustainable development -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa
  • Language: English
  • Type: Master's theses , text
  • Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10353/22655 , vital:52617
  • Description: Energy security is critical to global economic development and agricultural activities. Electricity is one of the most beneficial types of energy for rural household livelihoods and smallholder producers in South Africa. This study aims to examine the effects of household agricultural income on the adoption of electrical appliances and energy security among agricultural households in Mnquma Local Municipality. The study employed primary data obtained from 224 households using simple random sampling technique across three electrification stages. Descriptive statistics, and binary logistic regression was used to determine the relationship between socio-economic and demographic characteristics of the household and the household agricultural income on the adoption of new electrical appliances and energy security across the three electrification stages. Descriptive statistics results indicated that non-electrified (67.1percent) and recently electrified (54.3percent) villages are dominated by female-headed households, while in electrified households there are more male head households (58.3percent). The results also show that among the households that have the highest total monthly income (greater than R15000), 34.5percent were electrified, 17.1 percent were recently electrified, and 4.3percent were non-electrified. The Binary logistic regression model's findings for the second objective revealed that household head factors such as age, monthly total household income, household size, and household agricultural income have significant effects on energy security. The study's findings revealed that household agricultural income has a significant impact at a 5 percent significant level on the adoption of electrical appliances. Binary logistic regression findings for the third objective revealed that on new electrical appliance adoption there was a significant effect of gender (at 5percent level), household size, energy security, and household agricultural income at a 1percent significance level. Binary logistic regression revealed that the coefficient of household size variable is positive and significant at a 1percent significant level on energy security and electrical appliance adoption. In this study, household agricultural income on the adoption of electrical appliances has been found to be the most critical factor influencing the energy security status of households among the selected rural households in Mnquma Local Municipality. As a result, policies must be put in place to facilitate access to electrical appliances through electrification programs, invention of affordable electric appliances, encourage participation in agricultural production and agricultural market access, that will provide households with social benefits. To improve energy security, electrical appliances should be simple to use and aid in the transition from biomass to electricity. , Thesis (MAgric) -- Faculty of Science and Agriculture, 2021
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  • Date Issued: 2021-09

Market participation and welfare of smallholder farmers in the Eastern Cape Province South Africa

  • Authors: Lesala, Mahali Elizabeth https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9921-2190
  • Date: 2021-06
  • Subjects: Farms, Small , Economic development -- South Africa , Agriculture -- Economic aspects -- South Africa
  • Language: English
  • Type: Doctoral theses , text
  • Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10353/20916 , vital:46745
  • Description: The low market participation of smallholder farmers in markets has received enormous attention from scholars, both in the country and the Eastern Cape Province. However, it is not clear how low their market participation is including its implications on farmer’s welfare. The purpose of the study was to determine the extent to which smallholder farmers in the homelands of the Eastern Cape participate in output markets and assess how their participation in markets has affected wellbeing of their households. This information will have important practical implications for policy regarding appropriate pathways for poverty alleviation and livelihoods improvements in the rural areas of the Eastern Cape Province. Three irrigation schemes; Qamata, Zanyokwe and Tyefu irrigation schemes were selected for this study. A sample of 210 smallholder irrigators were interviewed by means of a close-ended questionnaire. The data were analysed by means of descriptive statistical tools, the multiple-level choice models and the Propensity Score Matching (PSM) technique. SPSS and STATA computer programmes were used to carry out all the estimations. The analysis established that, although agriculture is the primary activity for rural livelihoods, it is not the main contributor to family income. Rather, remittances and social grants were the dominant sources of household income in the Qamata, Zanyokwe and Tyefu areas. From the standpoint of market, maize and potatoes are the most popular crops, but potatoes dominate the market. This result confirms that maize is the staple crop and therefore mostly grown for home consumption while production of potatoes is market-oriented. The Market Participation Index (MPI) revealed that farmers sell at least 55 percent of their farm produce, implying that farmers have made some transition from subsistence to semi-commercial farming. However, farmers’ priority still remains food self-sufficiency and market participation only takes place after satisfying their home food needs. The results revealed that the significant factors influencing the farmers’ decisions and their extent of participation in output markets were the age, gender, marital status of the household head, primary occupation of household head, size of farm cultivated, government financial support, access to extension services and farmer’s membership of cooperatives. Concerning the impact of output market participation on welfare of smallholders, the Average Treatment on the Treated (ATT) as the measure of change revealed that participation in output markets has a positive impact on welfare of the smallholder farmers through increased incomes. Farmers who participated in output market were at least R838.44 better off than those who did not participate in markets although social grants and remittances made significantly higher contribution to household welfare. The study suggests that despite some improvements in income of market participants, the standards of living of the rural households are still far from what would be considered optimal. Crop farming evidently contributes less than desired, hence the persistence of the widespread poverty. It is urgent to focus interventions on improving agricultural productivity while widening strategies for improving rural livelihoods beyond agriculture to diversify the choices open to rural dwellers. , Thesis (PhD) -- Faculty of Science and Agriculture, 2021
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  • Date Issued: 2021-06

The effect of transport infrastructure investment on economic growth in South Africa

  • Authors: Matsolo, Khanya
  • Date: 2021-04
  • Subjects: Transportation -- South Africa , Infrastructure (Economics) -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa
  • Language: English
  • Type: Master's theses , text
  • Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/51699 , vital:43364
  • Description: The objective of the study was to examine the effect of transport infrastructure investment on economic growth of South Africa. The time series data that covered the period from 2001-2019 using converted quarterly data was used. The study applied autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) to analyse the relationship between transport infrastructure investment and economic growth in South Africa. The empirical results shows that there is positive relationship between these two variables both in the short run and long run. Thus, it is recommended that policy makers should develop strategies that are aligned with effective and efficient transport infrastructure investment to enhance economic growth in South Africa. , Thesis (MPhil) -- Faculty of Business and Economic Sciences, Development Finance, 2021
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  • Date Issued: 2021-04

An investigation of the internal challenges that hinder sustainability of the Furntech Nyanga incubates

  • Authors: Sakuba, Siyasanga
  • Date: 2020
  • Subjects: Business incubators -- South Africa -- Cape Town , Business incubators -- Training of -- South Africa -- Cape Town , Entrepreneurship -- South Africa – Cape Town , Unemployment -- South Africa , Rate of return -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Training needs -- South Africa -- Cape Town , Furntech (Nyanga)
  • Language: English
  • Type: Thesis , Masters , MBA
  • Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/142830 , vital:38121
  • Description: The South African unemployment rate is currently at 27.6 per cent (Statistics South Africa, 2019). In an effort to combat unemployment, the South African government has implemented various mechanisms to provide opportunities to the people and combat unemployment. One of these mechanisms is to invest in the establishment of entrepreneurship incubators while the Furntech incubator is one of the incubators established for this purpose. It is imperative that the government spending on these mechanisms is justified by a return on investment which, in this case, should be to reduce unemployment and increase the overall entrepreneurial activity. In view of Furntech, with specific reference to the Nyanga incubation centre, there is a high failure rate with very little output of sustainable enterprises from the two-year incubation period. This study seeks to investigate the internal challenges that hinder the sustainability of these entrepreneurs to either drop out before the end of the two-year incubation period or to furnish the two years without becoming sustainable entrepreneurs. This study seeks to investigate this matter by using a semi -structured interview schedule that was geared towards investigating the research problem from the view of the incubates. The findings of the study showed that Furntech can be commended in respect of the transfer of technical skills. Furntech, however, failed to support the entrepreneurs with the other business support services that are part of their services, namely the business advisory, financial support and business skills. These findings provide a guideline of where Furntech needs to improve its service offering to gain a higher output of sustainable entrepreneurs. It is important to note that even though Furntech has representation in three provinces with two incubators in the Western Cape (Cape Town and Nyanga), however, this study was limited to the Furntech Nyanga incubates.
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  • Date Issued: 2020

Development finance institutions and sustainable economic development : a case of the idc South Africa

  • Authors: Mare, Timothy
  • Date: 2020
  • Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa
  • Language: English
  • Type: Thesis , Masters , MPhil
  • Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/48872 , vital:41166
  • Description: The purpose of this research study is to assess the extent that the Industrial Development Cooperation (IDC) of South Africa a Development Finance Institution (DFI), has contributed to the sustainable economic development of South Africa. The objective is to quantify the impact that is attributed to the IDC’s activities in South Africa in terms of socio-economic development contributing to sustainable economic development. Social development is fundamentally important in contributing to the economic development of any country. The research constituted the collection and quantitative analysis of data using reports from the IDC. The social output index modelling developed by the World Bank was used to analyse the data and make conclusive arguments regarding the impact that the IDC was having on economic development. The findings indicate that the IDC significantly lends less comparatively to lower income groups thus resulting in a negative contribution in terms of social developmental goals. Further the analysis through social output index model suggests that the IDC in as far as socio-development is concerned did not contributing positively to sustainable economic development between 2014 and 2018 reporting periods. The following recommendations are suggested: Increase awareness about the real impact of each investment across the IDC group, this will ensure that all proposals for investment are assessed with a component focusing on a socio-developmental perspective; reduce the number of mandates that the IDC currently has and establish broader frameworks for DFIs regardless of which government is in power or control.
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  • Date Issued: 2020

Government size, labour productivity and economic growth in South Africa

  • Authors: Mbaleki, Chuma Innocent
  • Date: 2020
  • Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa
  • Language: English
  • Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
  • Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/48915 , vital:41170
  • Description: This study investigates short-run and long-run effects of fiscal consolidation on labour productivity in South Africa using the autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach of cointegration. We use quarterly data collected in the period of 1994Q3 to 2017Q1. We disaggregate government expenditure as well as revenue and find a positive and significant long run relationship between revenue variables and labour productivity. This relationship is also positive and significant in the short run except for net tax variable, which seems to be growth contractive. The results further suggest a positive and significant long run relationship between government expenditure on health, public safety and order, culture and recreation as well as education and labour productivity. Government expenditure on education and health variables are also positive and significant in the short run, whilst expenditure on defense is negative and not significant both in the short run and long run.
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  • Date Issued: 2020

The Effects of exchange rates on bilateral trade balances of SACU members states with their trading partners

  • Authors: Mhaka, Simbarashe
  • Date: 2020
  • Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa , Purchasing power parity -- Econometric models
  • Language: English
  • Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
  • Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/50371 , vital:42152
  • Description: The fluctuations of exchange rates prevent countries from achieving stability in their external account records. Appreciation or depreciation has effects on international trade. This thesis examines the relationship between exchange rate fluctuations on bilateral trade balances focusing on the SACU region. There are several theories made to explain the relationship between exchange rate and trade balances. In examining this phenomenon, this thesis will unveil if the purchasing power parity theory, the Marshall-Lerner condition and the J-curve effect holds in the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) countries. This analysis is divided into three parts. The first part examines the stability of the exchange rate in the SACU countries in the long run as given by the purchasing power parity. To test for the Purchasing Power Parity theory, the recently developed powerful unit root test was applied with multiple smooth structural breaks of Omay (2015), based on a Fractional Frequency Flexible Fourier Form (FFFFF) on unique data of SACU countries covering the monthly period of 1995M01-2017M11. The Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) results show that the nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) of all SACU members does not provide evidence for PPP theory. In terms of the real effective exchange rate (REER), the PPP condition holds in the case of South Africa only. Further unit root investigations were carried out using the panel data for all SACU members, NEER and REER. The FFFFF test results for panel data shows strong evidence of the PPP while the standard DF test rejects PPP theory in the SACU’s NEER. Both the standard DF and the FFFFF tests show strong evidence of PPP theory in the case of SACU’s REER. The second section of the analysis examines the Marshall-Lerner condition employing annual data from the period of 1980-2017. The import and export model were examined firstly in a time series format and then in a panel data format. The time series data was examined using the ARDL (PMG) model while the panel data used the panel ARDL, fully modified OLS (FMOLS) method and the Dynamic OLS (DOLS) method of estimation. The PMG/ARDL model shows no evidence to support the existence of the Marshall-Lerner condition in the short run for all SACU members. However, only two out of five countries show evidence of the Marshall-Lerner condition in the long run. There is strong evidence of the Marshall-Lerner condition in Namibia and Botswana in the long run using the PMG/ARDL model.
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  • Date Issued: 2020

Elasticity of the South African economy towards portfolio investments in BRICS countries

  • Authors: Taonezvi, Lovemore
  • Date: 2019
  • Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa
  • Language: English
  • Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
  • Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/44537 , vital:38141
  • Description: The emerging economies of Brazil, Russia, India, and China (BRIC) have been experiencing high growth rates since the turn of the millennium, whereas economic growth has been elusive in South Africa. As the newest member of BRICS, South Africa is expected to economically benefit through, amongst others, increases in capital flows, foreign investments by local firms, and increases in trade. Such benefits are anticipated to propel the country’s economic growth, thereby helping it to tackle its chronic problems of high unemployment, poverty, and economic inequality. The inclusion of South Africa in BRICS has, however, been viewed by critics as erroneous, since the country has, inter alia, poor economic growth; a small economy and population; and political instability. While foreign portfolio investment (FPI) inflows to South Africa have surged in recent years, economic growth has remained lacklustre. These flows have also faced sudden reversals, especially during the financial crisis of 2007-2009. With the potential to leverage its growth from intra-BRICS FPI inflows, it becomes of paramount significance for policymakers to have knowledge of the South African economy’s responsiveness to such inflows. With a theoretical framework based on the endogenous growth model, an augmented Cobb-Douglas production function was extended in this thesis in order to study the relationship between BRICS growth and intra-BRICS FPI in a dynamic panel data generalised method of moments (GMM) context. Similarly, the South African economy’s elasticity towards intraBRICS FPI was estimated. Vector autoregressive (VAR) analysis was used to evaluate the responsiveness of South Africa’s economy to an innovative shock to intra-BRICS FPI. Annual and quarterly data for the period 2000-2016 were used in panel data and VAR analysis, respectively. It was found that intra-BRICS FPI flows have a positive and statistically significant relationship with BRICS growth, while the elasticity of the South African economy to these flows is estimated at 0.007. Additionally, the efficiency and accessibility dimensions of financial market development do not assist FPI in promoting growth in BRICS, while financial market depth does. South Africa’s BRICS membership has a positive effect on its own growth, while for other BRICS nations, this membership is negative and insignificant. Credit rating downgrades have a negative and insignificant impact on economic growth, while the negative impact for inflation, government expenditure, and total labour employment is significant. Conversely, gross capital formation and trade openness have a positive and significant relationship with BRICS growth. The study also determined that a unit shock on intra-BRICS FPI resulted in negative fluctuations of South Africa’s economy within the first eight quarters before being positive and mostly constant thereafter. By supplementing domestic savings and facilitating the international integration of domestic financial markets, FPI promotes growth in BRICS. The short-term, ease of reversibility, and speculative nature of FPI are amongst some of the reasons for its destabilising effect on South Africa’s economy. Furthermore, inflation is a key determinant of FPI inflows to South Africa. Additional BRIC cooperation in FPI and trade; increased investments in domestic capital; reductions of inflation and corruption; investments in education and skills development; and stock market reforms are some of the recommendations for BRIC, and South Africa in particular. South Africa can consider prudential use of a mix of capital account controls, as well as fiscal and monetary policies to cushion its economy from FPI shocks in the short- to medium-term.
  • Full Text:
  • Date Issued: 2019

Financial development and economic growth in South Africa

  • Authors: Mhango, Joseph
  • Date: 2019
  • Subjects: Finance -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa
  • Language: English
  • Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
  • Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/41117 , vital:36358
  • Description: Since the identification of financial development for economic growth by Schumpeter (1911), the importance of financial development has been emphasised. However, the nature of the relationship is unclear, whether financial development is demand-following, supply-leading, feedback relationship or no causal relationship with economic growth. The revolution of the relationship between finance and economic growth has left a void of the exact nature of the relationship and importance of financial development in literature and empirical evidence. In addition, the variation of the nexus between financial development and economic growth in developed and developing countries has left policy makers uncertain on the exact policy to employ. In awe of this, after the discovery of diamonds and gold in South Africa, policy makers have attempted to improve the access, depth and efficiency of the finance sector to spur economic growth. However, South Africa has been subject to apartheid, low economic growth, global financial crises, international sanctions, unemployment and other challenges to the finance sector. In light of this, this study aims to empirically investigate the relationship between financial development and economic growth in South Africa. The study used the recently developed financial institutions index and financial markets index by the International Monetary Fund to represent bank-based and market-based financial development. This study utilises annual data over the period 1980 to 2014. The study applied the Autoregressive Disturbed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) Granger – Causality, Impulse Response Function (IRF) and Variance Decomposition to uncover the relationship between financial development and economic growth in South Africa. The ARDL was selected over the Johansen Cointegration because the variables can be I (1) or I(0) before carrying out the bounds testing. It is more suitable to a small sample size. It uses a reduced form equation, and it provides unbiased estimates of the long-run model. Lastly, it can be transformed into an error correction model. The VECM Granger-Causality was chosen because it represents the short-run and long-run causalities. After selection of the optimal lag, the ARDL bounds testing shows that economic growth, bank-based financial development, market-based financial development, savings and investment have a long-run relationship in South Africa. However, after estimation of the coefficients, financial development has a positive relationship with economic growth, but insignificant and only savings and investment were significant in determining long-run economic growth. The VECM granger-causality results show that financial development (bank and market), savings and investment granger cause economic growth in the long-run. While, economic growth, market-based financial development, savings and investment granger cause bank-based financial development in the long-run. Therefore, a feedback relationship exists between bank-based financial development and economic growth in the long-run. In the short-run, it was clear that bank-based financial development positively causes economic growth. The causality results show that a feedback relationship exists between bank-based financial development and economic growth in South Africa in the short-run as well. The IRF shows that a shock in economic growth negatively and positively affects bank based and market-based financial development respectively. A shock in bank-based financial development causes a positive effect on economic growth. Lastly, a shock in market-based financial development causes a positive effect on economic growth. Whilst, the variance decomposition shows that fluctuations in economic growth are increasingly explained by financial development (bank and market). While, fluctuations in bank-based financial development are increasingly explained by market-based financial development, savings and investment. The fluctuations in market-based financial development are increasingly caused by economic growth, savings and investment. It is recommended that policy makers utilise bank-based financial development for economic growth and reduced unemployment, to increase savings for long-run economic growth. Furthermore, challenges against market-based financial development should be reduced in order to create a positive relationship between investment and economic growth in the long run.
  • Full Text:
  • Date Issued: 2019

National debt and sovereign credit ratings

  • Authors: Orsmond, Daniel
  • Date: 2019
  • Subjects: Debts, Public -- South Africa , Credit ratings -- South Africa , Gross domestic product -- Africa , Inflation (Finance) -- Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Economic history , Macroeconomics , Moody's Investors Service , Standard and Poor's Ratings Services , Fitch Ratings (Firm)
  • Language: English
  • Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
  • Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/115160 , vital:34083
  • Description: In recent years South Africa’s foreign and local denominated debt has been downgraded by the three major global credit agencies, Moody’s, Standard and Poor’s (S&P) and Fitch. The foreign debt has been downgraded to speculative grade or ‘junk’ status by all three agencies. Local debt has been downgraded to ‘junk’ by S& P and Fitch, but Moody’s currently maintains local debt at the lowest level of investment grade. Many economists believe that South Africa’s rapidly rising debt levels are the major contributor to the decisions to downgrade South Africa’s debt. Yet many countries with higher levels of debt continue to be rated investment grade. Clearly, factors other than the actual level of debt are important in determining the credit rating agencies’ rating decisions. The literature suggests several variables are important in determining a country’s sovereign credit rating. These variables include not just the ratio of government debt to gross domestic product, but also a country’s real growth rate, inflation, gross domestic product per capita, external balance to gross domestic product, default history and the level of economic development. In examining the proposition that it is not a country’s debt level per se that matters, but rather the dynamics surrounding that debt, this research also includes three additional variables that are not usually mentioned in the literature. These, based on van der Merwe (1993), are the real GDP growth rate less the real interest rate, the ratio of the fiscal balance to GDP, and the ratio of government interest payments to government expenditure. The purpose of this addition is to examine whether rather than a country’s debt level (debt to GDP variable), it is the sustainability of a country’s ability to service debt, as indicated by the three additional ‘debt dynamic’ variables, that is most important when determining sovereign credit ratings. Panel data analysis for a sample of 12 countries over the period 1996Q1 to 2017Q4 indicates that of the broad macroeconomic variables mentioned in the literature, government debt to GDP, the real growth rate, inflation (cpi), and default history are all statistically significant, with the coefficients having the correct signs in all specification of the model, with the exception of the real growth rate in Models 2 and 3. With regards to the debt dynamic variables, the real growth rate less the real interest rate, as well as the interest payments to government expenditure variables are found to be significant determinants of sovereign credit ratings. Thus, the findings of the research suggest that the level of debt alone is an inadequate determinant of sovereign credit ratings. The dynamics of debt along with other macroeconomic variables are also important determinants of a country’s credit rating. Concerning policy recommendations, it is evident that debt sustainability is important for sovereign credit ratings. Evidence of the direct importance of economic growth in determining credit ratings is mixed, but growth is a key driver of debt dynamics variables and therefore of ratings. This suggests that policy should focus on stimulating growth to reduce the gap between real growth and real interest rates as well as increasing the denominator of the debt to GDP ratio and increase the size of the tax base, which would improve government’s ability to service the interest payments on its debt.
  • Full Text:
  • Date Issued: 2019

Social movements and economic development in post apartheid South Africa: lessons from Latin America

  • Authors: Makoni, Tinotenda Charity
  • Date: 2019
  • Subjects: South Africa -- Economic conditions -- 1991- , South Africa -- Politics and government -- 1994- , Social movements -- South Africa , Social movements -- Latin America , Economic development -- South Africa
  • Language: English
  • Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
  • Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/76420 , vital:30561
  • Description: The aim of this research is to bring the literature on political agency and economics together in an analysis of whether social movements can play an important role in economic development in post-apartheid South Africa. The entrenched discourse of sluggish growth and high inequality in post-apartheid South Africa can largely be attributed to the political decision to implement a neoliberal economic development orthodoxy. On the one hand, there is an urgent need to shift the economic development model to an alternate developmentalist model. However, no clearly articulated alternative developmental model has emerged. As a result, economically, South Africa is seemingly stuck. On the other hand, the selection of an economic development model and change in macroeconomic policies requires a political shift. Politically, formal politics has assumed the form of neoliberal democracy, characterised by a largely centralised state and the usurpation of the state and institutions by a national bourgeoisie. Social movements have emerged in response to the failure of neoliberalism to fulfil the promises of early post independent periods. They have been largely successful at highlighting the injustices and the inequalities in the country. However their ability to influence structural economic development has come into question. Firstly, social movements and their “politically destabilising distributive demands” have faced repression from the state as the state and institutions are aligned behind the interests of capital under a neoliberal democracy. Secondly, social movements in South Africa have been largely ideologically under-developed. They have been largely fragmented and tended to contest specific single issues rather than aiming to shift the deeper underlying systemic drivers behind the symptomatic immediate discomforts. The economic dimensions of such a shift are particularly unclear. This fragmentation and apparent lack of economic pragmatism make management or suppression of disruptive movements by the state relatively easy. The research uses a contrast between the Latin American social movements against a South African background in order to see what lessons South Africa can draw from social movements in Latin America. The Latin American case is cautiously more positive and provides comparably more sanguine lessons. In this way, this research seeks to construct a more comprehensive framework for the further study of social movements in South Africa and their potential impact on economic development in South Africa.
  • Full Text:
  • Date Issued: 2019

The future of banking in South Africa towards 2055: disruptive innovation scenarios

  • Authors: Koekemoer, Jonathan
  • Date: 2019
  • Subjects: Finance -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa
  • Language: English
  • Type: Thesis , Doctoral , DPhil
  • Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/40577 , vital:36184
  • Description: The research effort developed four possible scenarios for the future of banking in South Africa towards 2055. The scenarios sought to stimulate thought on the possible, probable, plausible and preferred effects of disruptive innovation and regulation in the South African banking sector. The scenarios were developed in strict accordance with the 5 stages, and 9 steps, of the scenario-based planning process of futures studies. A conceptual futures studies model for banking in South Africa was developed to guide and clarify the way in which the research on South African banking can be integrated into the body of existing futures studies theory. The research study began with a comprehensive environmental scan, where various megatrends and driving forces are identified. A PESTEL analysis provided a deeper understanding of the driving forces. A Real-Time Delphi study was conducted in order to validate and prioritise the megatrends and driving forces that emerged. As a result, the research study was able to present four plausible scenarios that provide a better understanding of the future of banking in South Africa over the decades to come. The research presents banking as a complex, multi-faceted sector that is heavily influenced by advances in technology. The Real-Time Delphi research allowed the aggregation of expert knowledge. This is used as a guide to assist decision-makers and industry leaders in the adoption of appropriate business models and strategies towards a preferred future state. The research defined the Integrated Vision as the preferred future state for the South African banking sector towards 2055. The study closes a research gap where current strategies deviate from proposed strategies that drive the achievement of the Integrated Vision by 2055. Finally, contextually aligned practical recommendations are provided to assist decision-makers, industry leaders and change agents to work towards a preferable future state. The proposed recommendations are placed into broad categories of innovation, financial inclusion and collaborative regulatory relationships. The research makes a meaningful contribution to the South African banking sector by introducing a forward-looking, systems-thinking approach to disruptive innovation and regulation in the South African context.
  • Full Text:
  • Date Issued: 2019

A proposed model for enterprise resource planning benefits for SMEs

  • Authors: De Matos, Paulo
  • Date: 2017
  • Subjects: Small business -- South Africa Enterprise resource planning -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa
  • Language: English
  • Type: Thesis , Masters , MBA
  • Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/14971 , vital:28107
  • Description: Small to medium sized enterprises (SMEs) play a significant role in global and national economies, both in developed and developing countries, contributing significantly to economic growth and job creation. Yet, SMEs face ongoing survival issues as their limited access to resources often constrains their ability to compete and realise their potential. Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) systems are known to be a crucial component in realising benefits for any organisation and are seen as significant contributors to an organisation’s performance. However, only a portion of SMEs report that their value expectations have been met in adopting an ERP system. SMEs require a better understanding of how to extract value from ERP adoption in order to remain competitive. An on-going SME problem is a lack of low-level awareness of the benefits that an ERP system is capable of providing them. The problem is stated as “SMEs do not understand the benefits derived from the adoption of an ERP system”. The purpose of this treatise was to determine a clearer understanding of how ERP systems can be considered a technological innovation that may be exploited by an SME to deliver business value by increasing the performance of the SME and thereby increasing the SME’s competitive advantage. A literature review was conducted on ERP and SMEs which identified benefit models grounded in the theories of Diffusion of Innovation (DOI) and Resource Based View (RBV). DOI explains the benefits derived from ERP use as the technology diffuses throughout the social organisation and RBV measures the business value extracted from ERP adoption and use. A model for ERP benefits for SMEs was proposed based on the extant literature and empirical evaluation on a sample of 107 SYSPRO ERP users in South Africa. The model was statistically assessed as to the relationships between the independent variables of ease of use, collaboration, capabilities, efficiencies, analytics, industry sector and maturity against the dependent variable of ERP business value. The variables of analytics, capabilities and ease of use together explain 68.9% of the variance of ERP business value, while analytics and capabilities explain 53.8%. No significant relationship was found for efficiencies, collaboration, industry or maturity, being a measure of length of years’ experience in ERP use. The results indicate that SMEs perceive analytics to be a valuable determinant of ERP value contributing to the competitiveness of SMEs. The higher the SME focuses on analytics, the greater the organisation’s performance increases due to the enhancement of analytical-based decisions aiding in a better decision-making process. Capabilities are the degree to which an ERP system caters for the functional needs of the SME. This treatise argues that SMEs should pay particular focus on their operational requirements and whether the ERP system is capable of providing them as customisation of the ERP is costly. Organisational personnel utilising ERP must be comfortable utilising it. Perceptions as to an ERP’s complexity and usefulness define the ease-of-use. SMEs should consider the inherent aspects of a given ERP system that support the adoption rate of their personnel of an ERP system. Practically, SMEs should assess the degree of system intuitiveness both during ERP selection and during the adoption lifecycle phases. ERP providers should focus on the provisioning of aspects both in the software and during the implementation of an ERP system at an SME in ensuring the system is intuitive, useful, easy to use, functionally addresses the SME requirements simply and surfaces meaningful analytics in support of decision-making process.
  • Full Text:
  • Date Issued: 2017
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