An assessment of marine food security in the Western Indian Ocean and the likely impacts of climate change
- Taylor, Sarah Frances Wedgwood
- Authors: Taylor, Sarah Frances Wedgwood
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Food security
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/44528 , vital:38140
- Description: The Western Indian Ocean hosts the second largest coastal population on the planet and supports 4 million tons of fish catches annually yielding $943 million in revenues and employment. However, it has been warming at a rate faster than any other region of the tropical oceans over the last century thereby placing the challenges of fluctuating fish supply and changes in ocean productivity on coastal communities. With the global food system under mounting pressure, governments need to understand the relationship between fish supply and food security to avoid overseeing the important role fish and fisheries play in ensuring food security. This study provides an alternative view and measurement of food security at a national level by assessing the impact that macroeconomic variables and climate change have on fish supply in Kenya, South Africa, and Tanzania as case study countries of the Western Indian Ocean. Vector Error Correction Models were run to analyse the impact of economic growth, fishing effort, lending interest rates, and climate change on marine food security for the period of 1980-2016. Agricultural employment was used as a proxy for fishing effort. In general, the relationship between fish supply and fishing effort is negative in the short run and positive in the long run for Kenyan marine fisheries, South African total capture and marine fisheries, and Tanzanian capture fisheries. These results therefore oppose the theoretical expectations. Sea surface temperature, as a proxy of climate change, was found to have a negative impact overall on fish supply and therefore exerts a negative impact on marine food security in all three countries. The results emphasise the need to use disaggregated fisheries statistics to better understand the complex relationship between macroeconomic variables and fish supply. By doing so, more effective food security policies can be created in attempt to mitigate the potential negative impacts of climate change on marine food security in the Western Indian Ocean.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
- Authors: Taylor, Sarah Frances Wedgwood
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Food security
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/44528 , vital:38140
- Description: The Western Indian Ocean hosts the second largest coastal population on the planet and supports 4 million tons of fish catches annually yielding $943 million in revenues and employment. However, it has been warming at a rate faster than any other region of the tropical oceans over the last century thereby placing the challenges of fluctuating fish supply and changes in ocean productivity on coastal communities. With the global food system under mounting pressure, governments need to understand the relationship between fish supply and food security to avoid overseeing the important role fish and fisheries play in ensuring food security. This study provides an alternative view and measurement of food security at a national level by assessing the impact that macroeconomic variables and climate change have on fish supply in Kenya, South Africa, and Tanzania as case study countries of the Western Indian Ocean. Vector Error Correction Models were run to analyse the impact of economic growth, fishing effort, lending interest rates, and climate change on marine food security for the period of 1980-2016. Agricultural employment was used as a proxy for fishing effort. In general, the relationship between fish supply and fishing effort is negative in the short run and positive in the long run for Kenyan marine fisheries, South African total capture and marine fisheries, and Tanzanian capture fisheries. These results therefore oppose the theoretical expectations. Sea surface temperature, as a proxy of climate change, was found to have a negative impact overall on fish supply and therefore exerts a negative impact on marine food security in all three countries. The results emphasise the need to use disaggregated fisheries statistics to better understand the complex relationship between macroeconomic variables and fish supply. By doing so, more effective food security policies can be created in attempt to mitigate the potential negative impacts of climate change on marine food security in the Western Indian Ocean.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
Elasticity of the South African economy towards portfolio investments in BRICS countries
- Authors: Taonezvi, Lovemore
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/44537 , vital:38141
- Description: The emerging economies of Brazil, Russia, India, and China (BRIC) have been experiencing high growth rates since the turn of the millennium, whereas economic growth has been elusive in South Africa. As the newest member of BRICS, South Africa is expected to economically benefit through, amongst others, increases in capital flows, foreign investments by local firms, and increases in trade. Such benefits are anticipated to propel the country’s economic growth, thereby helping it to tackle its chronic problems of high unemployment, poverty, and economic inequality. The inclusion of South Africa in BRICS has, however, been viewed by critics as erroneous, since the country has, inter alia, poor economic growth; a small economy and population; and political instability. While foreign portfolio investment (FPI) inflows to South Africa have surged in recent years, economic growth has remained lacklustre. These flows have also faced sudden reversals, especially during the financial crisis of 2007-2009. With the potential to leverage its growth from intra-BRICS FPI inflows, it becomes of paramount significance for policymakers to have knowledge of the South African economy’s responsiveness to such inflows. With a theoretical framework based on the endogenous growth model, an augmented Cobb-Douglas production function was extended in this thesis in order to study the relationship between BRICS growth and intra-BRICS FPI in a dynamic panel data generalised method of moments (GMM) context. Similarly, the South African economy’s elasticity towards intraBRICS FPI was estimated. Vector autoregressive (VAR) analysis was used to evaluate the responsiveness of South Africa’s economy to an innovative shock to intra-BRICS FPI. Annual and quarterly data for the period 2000-2016 were used in panel data and VAR analysis, respectively. It was found that intra-BRICS FPI flows have a positive and statistically significant relationship with BRICS growth, while the elasticity of the South African economy to these flows is estimated at 0.007. Additionally, the efficiency and accessibility dimensions of financial market development do not assist FPI in promoting growth in BRICS, while financial market depth does. South Africa’s BRICS membership has a positive effect on its own growth, while for other BRICS nations, this membership is negative and insignificant. Credit rating downgrades have a negative and insignificant impact on economic growth, while the negative impact for inflation, government expenditure, and total labour employment is significant. Conversely, gross capital formation and trade openness have a positive and significant relationship with BRICS growth. The study also determined that a unit shock on intra-BRICS FPI resulted in negative fluctuations of South Africa’s economy within the first eight quarters before being positive and mostly constant thereafter. By supplementing domestic savings and facilitating the international integration of domestic financial markets, FPI promotes growth in BRICS. The short-term, ease of reversibility, and speculative nature of FPI are amongst some of the reasons for its destabilising effect on South Africa’s economy. Furthermore, inflation is a key determinant of FPI inflows to South Africa. Additional BRIC cooperation in FPI and trade; increased investments in domestic capital; reductions of inflation and corruption; investments in education and skills development; and stock market reforms are some of the recommendations for BRIC, and South Africa in particular. South Africa can consider prudential use of a mix of capital account controls, as well as fiscal and monetary policies to cushion its economy from FPI shocks in the short- to medium-term.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
- Authors: Taonezvi, Lovemore
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/44537 , vital:38141
- Description: The emerging economies of Brazil, Russia, India, and China (BRIC) have been experiencing high growth rates since the turn of the millennium, whereas economic growth has been elusive in South Africa. As the newest member of BRICS, South Africa is expected to economically benefit through, amongst others, increases in capital flows, foreign investments by local firms, and increases in trade. Such benefits are anticipated to propel the country’s economic growth, thereby helping it to tackle its chronic problems of high unemployment, poverty, and economic inequality. The inclusion of South Africa in BRICS has, however, been viewed by critics as erroneous, since the country has, inter alia, poor economic growth; a small economy and population; and political instability. While foreign portfolio investment (FPI) inflows to South Africa have surged in recent years, economic growth has remained lacklustre. These flows have also faced sudden reversals, especially during the financial crisis of 2007-2009. With the potential to leverage its growth from intra-BRICS FPI inflows, it becomes of paramount significance for policymakers to have knowledge of the South African economy’s responsiveness to such inflows. With a theoretical framework based on the endogenous growth model, an augmented Cobb-Douglas production function was extended in this thesis in order to study the relationship between BRICS growth and intra-BRICS FPI in a dynamic panel data generalised method of moments (GMM) context. Similarly, the South African economy’s elasticity towards intraBRICS FPI was estimated. Vector autoregressive (VAR) analysis was used to evaluate the responsiveness of South Africa’s economy to an innovative shock to intra-BRICS FPI. Annual and quarterly data for the period 2000-2016 were used in panel data and VAR analysis, respectively. It was found that intra-BRICS FPI flows have a positive and statistically significant relationship with BRICS growth, while the elasticity of the South African economy to these flows is estimated at 0.007. Additionally, the efficiency and accessibility dimensions of financial market development do not assist FPI in promoting growth in BRICS, while financial market depth does. South Africa’s BRICS membership has a positive effect on its own growth, while for other BRICS nations, this membership is negative and insignificant. Credit rating downgrades have a negative and insignificant impact on economic growth, while the negative impact for inflation, government expenditure, and total labour employment is significant. Conversely, gross capital formation and trade openness have a positive and significant relationship with BRICS growth. The study also determined that a unit shock on intra-BRICS FPI resulted in negative fluctuations of South Africa’s economy within the first eight quarters before being positive and mostly constant thereafter. By supplementing domestic savings and facilitating the international integration of domestic financial markets, FPI promotes growth in BRICS. The short-term, ease of reversibility, and speculative nature of FPI are amongst some of the reasons for its destabilising effect on South Africa’s economy. Furthermore, inflation is a key determinant of FPI inflows to South Africa. Additional BRIC cooperation in FPI and trade; increased investments in domestic capital; reductions of inflation and corruption; investments in education and skills development; and stock market reforms are some of the recommendations for BRIC, and South Africa in particular. South Africa can consider prudential use of a mix of capital account controls, as well as fiscal and monetary policies to cushion its economy from FPI shocks in the short- to medium-term.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
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