- Title
- The impact of oil prices on the trade balance of South Africa
- Creator
- Mili, Akhona
- Subject
- Petroleum products -- Prices Balance of trade -- South Africa Petroleum industry and trade -- Economic aspects
- Date Issued
- 2017
- Date
- 2017
- Type
- Thesis
- Type
- Masters
- Type
- MCom
- Identifier
- http://hdl.handle.net/10353/8630
- Identifier
- vital:33228
- Description
- The Autoregressive Distributed Lag model was used to estimate and analyse the relationship between crude oil prices and the trade balance of South Africa. This study estimated the trade balance model and analysed the relationship between crude oil prices and the trade balance of South Africa from the period 1990 to 2015. The bounds cointegration test confirmed the existence of a long-run relationship between the trade balance and real oil prices, real effective exchange rate, domestic income, real interest rate and the inflation rate. The results confirm that changes in oil prices have a negative impact on the trade balance whereas, currency devaluation, real interest, inflation rate and domestic income had a positive effect on the trade balance. The negative sign and significance of the Error Correction Term and diagnostic tests confirmed the reliability of the results.
- Format
- 109 leaves
- Format
- Publisher
- University of Fort Hare
- Publisher
- Faculty of Management and Commerce
- Language
- English
- Rights
- University of Fort Hare
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UFH Department of Economics
| Thumbnail | File | Description | Size | Format | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| View Details Download | SOURCE1 | compiled document.pdf | 2 MB | Adobe Acrobat PDF | View Details Download |