- Title
- Flash floods prediction in South African urban areas: Jukskei river catchment as case study
- Creator
- Mawasha, Tshepo Sylvester
- Subject
- Gqeberha (South Africa)
- Subject
- Eastern Cape (South Africa)
- Subject
- Geographic information systems
- Date Issued
- 2021-04
- Date
- 2021-04
- Type
- Doctoral theses
- Type
- text
- Identifier
- http://hdl.handle.net/10948/52059
- Identifier
- vital:43429
- Description
- This study explored the change relation of multi-temporal land-use/land-cover (LULC) conditions in order to determine how they contribute to change in surface runoff volumes and peak discharge, in an effort to predict flash flooding within the Jukskei River catchment. The research is divided into three main parts: (1) LULC change modeling, (2) rainfall-runoff modeling, and (3) flash floods prediction. Three multi-temporal satellite images of Landsat-5 MMS (1987), Landsat-5 TM (2001) and Landsat-8 OLI (2015) were used for LULC modeling. The analysis of the LULC model revealed that there is a continuous increment in built-up area, from 37.7% to 56.2%, in the expense of other LULC classes for the 28-years preceding this study (i.e., 1987 to 2015). Rainfall-runoff model output results revealed that, for these 28 years, there has been an increase in surface runoff due to change in LULC by 21.5%, 32.9% and 45.5% for 1987, 2001 and 2015, respectively. Due to an increase in surface runoff volume and impervious surface over time, the analysis of HEC-RAS/GeoRAS showed that floodplain extent, flood depth, flood velocity, depth-velocity and the level of damage increases especially in low elevation areas and areas at closed proximity to the Jukskei River. Thus, the building structures and infrastructures are at risk of being affected by flash floods during the rainy season. The findings of this study are expected to be used as basic data for the identification of causative factors of flash floods, areas that generate high surface runoff volume, and the prediction of flash floods within the catchment in future. The flood damage maps developed in this study will be useful to policy-makers and the relevant authorities, as well as to local residents, in finding suitable measures for residential development along the floodplain while reducing flood risk in the study area.
- Description
- Thesis (PhD) -- Faculty of Science, School of Environmental Sciences, 2021
- Format
- computer
- Format
- online resource
- Format
- application/pdf
- Format
- 1 online resource (xx, 327 pages)
- Format
- Publisher
- Nelson Mandela University
- Publisher
- Faculty of Science
- Language
- English
- Rights
- Nelson Mandela University
- Rights
- All Rights Reserved
- Rights
- Open Access
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