- Title
- Spatial and temporal analysis of the critical zone in the Western rift valley corridor: towards earth stewardship science in East Africa
- Creator
- Miller, Warren David
- Subject
- Port Elizabeth (South Africa)
- Subject
- Eastern Cape (South Africa)
- Subject
- South Africa
- Date Issued
- 2022-12
- Date
- 2022-12
- Type
- Doctoral theses
- Type
- text
- Identifier
- http://hdl.handle.net/10948/59771
- Identifier
- vital:62423
- Description
- Over the coming decades, Africa is expected to experience disturbing effects due to climate change and increased land cover change due to human influences presenting a significant concern for the future well-being of human and biological systems, the latter being the foundation of ecosystem services supplied to humanity. Therefore, unprecedented transdisciplinary cooperation, coordination, and integration amongst researchers, government, and civil society are necessary to increase the resiliency of these systems. This study aims to provide an outline of the Africa Alive Corridors (AAC) as an essential model for the encouragement of sustainable development through Earth Stewardship science. These aims are accompanied by the quantification and forward modelling for land cover change of the Critical Zone over 10 Great Lake Basins across one of the AAC, the Western Rift Valley Corridor (WRVC), in East Africa between the years 2018 and 2060. This approach provides the foundation for implementing improved regional governance, better encouragement of sustainable development beyond the 2030 United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, and education programs, such as the AAC, that promote socio-ecological resilience through Earth Stewardship Science. The AAC archives a portion of East Africa as the WRVC, a corridor along the western branch of the East African Rift System that highlights twenty heritage nodes, primarily great lakes, mountain ranges, national parks, and biological hotspots. These heritage entities are associated with ca. 12-million-years of evolution and transformation of the East African topography and related African Great Lake (AGL) systems. The thesis defines the study area by delineating AGL basins intersected by the WRVC. Across these basins, land cover change analysis provides a platform for an integrated assessment of the projected health of the corridor region. Existing land cover datasets provide the initial conditions of the study area for 2008 and 2013. Land cover between 2008 and 2013 is cross-tabulated using the Land Cover Module in the Terrset software, followed by the iii delineation of sub-models and driver variable identification. The Multi-Layer Perceptron algorithm provides the transition potentials between tree cover, urban area, cropland, wetland, and open area classes. Change quantification and prediction using Markov Chain analysis are then established for 2018, 2030, and 2060. The model successfully simulated future land cover change and concluded that: (1) proximity to existing human activity, proximity to existing tree cover, and population are the primary drivers of change; (2) the dominant land cover of the ten lake basins for 2018 was cropland at ca. 48%, followed by tree cover at ca. 33%; (3) total anthropogenic change over the coming four decades equates to over ca. 52 000 km2 (5 200 000 ha), and particularly (4) an urban area is expected to increase by >130%. This assessment ultimately provides a platform for regional governance development at the basin scale and Earth Stewardship science in East Africa. These changes require transdisciplinary action from researchers to civil society. The AAC provides the foundation for understanding the dynamics of the systems that support life across broader spatial and temporal resolutions in Africa, highlighting the need for future generations to build socio-ecological resilience to anticipate challenges such as biodiversity loss posed by climate change and excessive land cover change.
- Description
- Thesis (DSc) -- Faculty of Science, School of Environmental Sciences, 2022
- Format
- computer
- Format
- online resource
- Format
- application/pdf
- Format
- 1 online resource (225 pages)
- Format
- Publisher
- Nelson Mandela University
- Publisher
- Faculty of Science
- Language
- English
- Rights
- Nelson Mandela University
- Rights
- All Rights Reserved
- Rights
- Open Access
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| Thumbnail | File | Description | Size | Format | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| View Details Download | SOURCE1 | Miller, WD Dec 2022.pdf | 21 MB | Adobe Acrobat PDF | View Details Download |