- Title
- Housing market dynamics and economic growth in South Africa (1994 – 2019)
- Creator
- Muchaonyerwa, Forward
- Subject
- Economic development -- South Africa
- Subject
- Housing -- Prices -- South Africa
- Subject
- Housing forecasting -- South Africa
- Date Issued
- 2023-09
- Date
- 2023-09
- Type
- Doctoral theses
- Type
- text
- Identifier
- http://hdl.handle.net/10353/28628
- Identifier
- vital:74477
- Description
- The housing market contributes significantly to economic growth. On this background, the study examined South Africa’s housing market dynamics, particularly determinants of demand, supply, and formal housing prices. Furthermore, the study looked at the impact of housing prices on economic growth from 1994:Q1 to 2019:Q2. The study period is important as it covers the new political dispensation in South Africa where the country entered a new democracy in 1994. The first three objectives of the study were to identify the determinants of housing demand, supply, and prices. The theory of demand and supply provided the theoretical framework for these models. Estimation of the housing demand, supply and price models was done by the employing Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) technique. The Three Stage Least Squares (3SLS) model was estimated for robustness. Findings from SUR and 3SLS confirmed that Housing Demand (HD) is negatively and significantly influenced by residential Building Costs per Square Meter (BCSM), Housing Supply (HS) and Financial Costs (FC); and positively influenced by House Prices (HP). In addition, HS is negatively affected by BCSM, HD, Production Costs (PC) and Urban Population (UP); and positively influenced by HP and Residential Construction Confidence (RC). Lastly, HP are negatively affected by Prime Overdraft Rate (POR) and RC; and positively influenced by BCSM, HS, HD, Coincident Business Cycle Indicator (CBC) and residential Valuation (VAL). The fourth objective was to examine the impact of house prices on economic growth. An economic model was specified with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as its dependent variable. The new growth theory provided the theoretical framework for this model. The Johansen co-integration technique confirmed a long run-term relationship between economic growth and house prices. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) was estimated to analyze the long and short run relationship among the variables. Empirical results confirmed that house prices have a positive impact on economic growth. Results further confirmed that CBC and Unemployment Rate (UR) are also positively related to GDP. POR and Leading Business Cycle indicator (LEBC) are negatively related to GDP. Granger Causality test was performed to analyze the causality between house prices and economic growth. The results indicated that there is a long run unidirectional causality from house prices to economic growth. With these results, the study recommends policy formation emanating from continuous research by establishing a human settlement agency or task team. The team can establish procedures for data collection and maintain a database for all kinds of housing market data. Their mandate includes research on commissioning of new towns and/or cities to boost housing supply. The government should avail more land and relax restrictive regulations and minimize red tape to ensure that houses are supplied to meet the growing demand as well as to stabilize prices. Policies to promote confidence and stabilize building costs are needed. These variables indicated significant influence on housing dynamics. It is also recommended to incentivize households to participate on the mortgage market. This assist both households through the wealth effect which positively influence increase in economic activity in South Africa.
- Description
- Thesis (DCom) -- Faculty of Management and Commerce, 2023
- Format
- computer
- Format
- online resource
- Format
- application/pdf
- Format
- 1 online resource (xix, 233 pages)
- Format
- Publisher
- University of Fort Hare
- Publisher
- Faculty of Management and Commerce
- Language
- English
- Rights
- rights holder
- Rights
- All Rights Reserved
- Rights
- Open Access
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Collections
UFH Department of Economics
| Thumbnail | File | Description | Size | Format | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| View Details Download | SOURCE1 | Muchaonyerwa_200808311_Economics.pdf | 78 MB | Adobe Acrobat PDF | View Details Download |