- Title
- Analysis of export performance and its determinants in Uganda
- Creator
- Mugambe, Kenneth
- Subject
- Economics -- Uganda
- Subject
- Shipping -- Economic aspects -- Uganda
- Subject
- Exports -- Uganda
- Date Issued
- 2023-12
- Date
- 2023-12
- Type
- Doctoral theses
- Type
- text
- Identifier
- http://hdl.handle.net/10948/65841
- Identifier
- vital:74273
- Description
- The purpose of this study was to investigate whether variations in the factor endowments, endo-genous factors and governance factors can explain the growth rates in export performance in Uga-nda. The study was guided by the objectives, which included examining the effect of factor endowments on export performance in Uganda, examining the effect of endogenous factors on export performance in Uganda and examining the effect of governance factors on Uganda’s export performance. From the theoretical review, the study benchmarks the growth frameworks of neo-classical theory, endogenous growth theory and institutionalist growth theory, which guided the formulation of the empirical growth models. The study followed a longitudinal research design with time series analysis. A longitudinal design was selected for this study to examine the determinants of exporting in Uganda from 1996 to 2021. The estimation was achieved by imple-menting the first instrumental variable generalised method moments (1V-GMM) on a linear dy-namic panel model through the specific-to-general modelling technique. Among the factors moti-vated by the neo-classical theory paradigm, estimates from this study indicate that foreign direct investment has a positive influence on Uganda’s export performance positively. At the same time, gross capital formation significantly reduces the growth of exports. On the other hand, labour force (in the final model) does not influence changes in export performance since it is insignificant. Among the endogenous growth factors, estimates show that higher exchange rates and inflation have a significant negative effect on Uganda’s export performance. Estimates indicate further that among the governance factors, control of corruption has no effect on Uganda’s export performance. On the other hand, government effectiveness (which also serves as regulatory quality) has a significant negative effect on export performance in that government efforts to im-prove its efficacy affect export performance negatively. So the study shows that variations in Uga-nda’s export performance can partially be explained by the neo-classical trade theory and the endogenous growth model with little influence from the institutional growth model, suggesting the incompleteness of the growth frameworks adopted in assessing the sources of export performance in Uganda. The regression results from Model 3 indicate that all the independent variables explain 77.21% (R Square = .7721) of the variations in export performance, implying that the remaining 22.79% explains other factors not considered in this study. In conclusion, factor endowments play a crucial role in driving Uganda’s export performance. Foreign direct investment consistently influences exports, underscoring the role of capital, technology and international market access in enhancing export competitiveness. However, the negative co-efficient for gross capital formation raises concerns about potential trade-offs between domestic investment and export promotion. In addition, the positive co-efficient for real effective exchange rate (REER) in Model 2 suggests that a favourable exchange rate enhances export competitiveness. This highlights the importance of exchange rate policies that promote stability and competitiveness. However, the mixed and marginal significance of REER in Model 3 indicates the presence of other factors influencing the relationship, emphasising the need for a comprehensive analysis of exchange rate dynamics. The negative co-efficients for inflation across the models imply that higher inflation rates may hinder export performance, emphasising the importance of maintaining price stability to preserve export competitiveness. Based on the results of the analysis, a number of policy recommendations for Uganda can be made. The country should prioritise export promotion initiatives as supported by the positive and significant influence of previous export performance and foreign direct investment on exports. The government could implement targeted policies and programmes to support export-oriented industries, provide incentives for export activities and facilitate market access for Ugandan goods and services. Uganda could attract more investments and stimulate export growth by fostering a conducive environment for exporters.
- Description
- Thesis (PhD) -- Faculty of Business and Economic Sciences, School of Economics, Development and Tourism, 2023
- Format
- computer
- Format
- online resource
- Format
- application/pdf
- Format
- 1 online resource (xiii, 231 pages)
- Format
- Publisher
- Nelson Mandela University
- Publisher
- Faculty of Business and Economic Sciences
- Language
- English
- Rights
- Nelson Mandela University
- Rights
- All Rights Reserved
- Rights
- Open Access
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NMU School for Economics, Development and Tourism
| Thumbnail | File | Description | Size | Format | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| View Details Download | SOURCE1 | Mugambe, K.pdf | 3 MB | Adobe Acrobat PDF | View Details Download |