Fisher’s hypothesis from a disaggregated perspective for South Africa: an asymmetric approach
- Authors: Mbekeni, Lutho
- Date: 2021-04
- Subjects: Gqeberha (South Africa) , Eastern Cape (South Africa) , South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Master's theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/52978 , vital:44863
- Description: In this study, we re-examine Fisher’s hypothesis for the South African economy during the post-inflation targeting era of 2002:Q1 to 2019:Q4, and in doing so, we present four noteworthy empirical contributions. Firstly, we employ two nonlinear frameworks to carry out our empirical analysis, i.e. i) Flexible Fourier Function (FFF) unit root tests, and ii) Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag model (NARDL). Secondly, we take the disaggregated approach in examining Fisher’s hypothesis by making use of survey-based inflation expectations data for financial analysts, the business sector, trade unions representatives, and household participants. Thirdly, we capture our inflation expectations using three different forecast horizons (i.e. current, 12-month ahead, and 24-month ahead). Lastly, we conduct a sensitivity analysis. After employing our FFF based tests, the empirical results highlighted the Reserve Bank’s success of stabilizing real interest rates for periods subsequent to the 2008 Subprime crisis, as compared to periods before the crisis. Furthermore, after employing the NARDL model, we observed that nominal interest rates are more responsive to the falling inflation expectations across all economic agents except for trade unions during the pre-crisis period. On the other hand, nominal interest rates were found to be more responsive to rising expectations of all economic agents in the post-crisis period. Essentially, our findings have important policy implications for monetary policy. , Thesis (MA) -- Faculty of Business and Economic Sciences, School of Economics, Development and Tourism, 2021
- Full Text: false
- Date Issued: 2021-04
- Authors: Mbekeni, Lutho
- Date: 2021-04
- Subjects: Gqeberha (South Africa) , Eastern Cape (South Africa) , South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Master's theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/52978 , vital:44863
- Description: In this study, we re-examine Fisher’s hypothesis for the South African economy during the post-inflation targeting era of 2002:Q1 to 2019:Q4, and in doing so, we present four noteworthy empirical contributions. Firstly, we employ two nonlinear frameworks to carry out our empirical analysis, i.e. i) Flexible Fourier Function (FFF) unit root tests, and ii) Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag model (NARDL). Secondly, we take the disaggregated approach in examining Fisher’s hypothesis by making use of survey-based inflation expectations data for financial analysts, the business sector, trade unions representatives, and household participants. Thirdly, we capture our inflation expectations using three different forecast horizons (i.e. current, 12-month ahead, and 24-month ahead). Lastly, we conduct a sensitivity analysis. After employing our FFF based tests, the empirical results highlighted the Reserve Bank’s success of stabilizing real interest rates for periods subsequent to the 2008 Subprime crisis, as compared to periods before the crisis. Furthermore, after employing the NARDL model, we observed that nominal interest rates are more responsive to the falling inflation expectations across all economic agents except for trade unions during the pre-crisis period. On the other hand, nominal interest rates were found to be more responsive to rising expectations of all economic agents in the post-crisis period. Essentially, our findings have important policy implications for monetary policy. , Thesis (MA) -- Faculty of Business and Economic Sciences, School of Economics, Development and Tourism, 2021
- Full Text: false
- Date Issued: 2021-04
The relationship between real exchange rate misalignment and economic growth in Namibia
- Shaduka, Mathilde Hishikomesho
- Authors: Shaduka, Mathilde Hishikomesho
- Date: 2021-04
- Subjects: Namibia , Eastern Cape (South Africa) , South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Master's theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/53024 , vital:44892
- Description: It has been recognised in academic and policy debates that a poorly managed exchange rate can have a devastating effect on a country’s economic growth rate. The current literature on the effect of real exchange rate misalignment on economic growth shows mixed and inconclusive results. The floating rate regime by South Africa to which Namibia’s exchange rate is fixed, contributes to exchange fluctuations that Namibia experiences. As exchange rate is one of the fundamental factors that affect economic growth, this study aims to evaluate the effect of real exchange rate misalignment on the Namibian economic growth over the period from 1990 to 2018. The study employs Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate (ERER) Model and Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) models as quantitative research methods approach for estimating the equilibrium exchange rate and establishing the relationship between real exchange rate misalignment and Namibia’s economic growth. The ERER model reveals that the Namibian currency was overvalued over the period under review. Furthermore, the ARDL results confirm that a significant relationship exists between real exchange rate misalignment and Namibia’s economic growth. The study further shows that real exchange rate misalignment (overvaluation) negatively affects Namibia’s growth domestic product (GDP). Consequently, consistent with current literature, the study supports the view that keeping the real exchange rate at levels close to its equilibrium level or slightly below its equilibrium level can promote economic growth in developing economies such as Namibia. The study, therefore, strongly recommends that the Namibian government should consider a currency undervaluation policy in order to promote economic activities and enhance Namibia’s GDP. it is thus crucial for policymakers to effectively manage real exchange rate regularly and ensure that it does not widely deviate from its equilibrium value. The study also recommends that Namibia should diversify its products and ease the trade barriers so as to promote exports that would boost economic activities. , Thesis (MPhil) -- Faculty of Business and Economic Sciences, School of Economics Development and Tourism, 2021
- Full Text: false
- Date Issued: 2021-04
- Authors: Shaduka, Mathilde Hishikomesho
- Date: 2021-04
- Subjects: Namibia , Eastern Cape (South Africa) , South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Master's theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/53024 , vital:44892
- Description: It has been recognised in academic and policy debates that a poorly managed exchange rate can have a devastating effect on a country’s economic growth rate. The current literature on the effect of real exchange rate misalignment on economic growth shows mixed and inconclusive results. The floating rate regime by South Africa to which Namibia’s exchange rate is fixed, contributes to exchange fluctuations that Namibia experiences. As exchange rate is one of the fundamental factors that affect economic growth, this study aims to evaluate the effect of real exchange rate misalignment on the Namibian economic growth over the period from 1990 to 2018. The study employs Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate (ERER) Model and Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) models as quantitative research methods approach for estimating the equilibrium exchange rate and establishing the relationship between real exchange rate misalignment and Namibia’s economic growth. The ERER model reveals that the Namibian currency was overvalued over the period under review. Furthermore, the ARDL results confirm that a significant relationship exists between real exchange rate misalignment and Namibia’s economic growth. The study further shows that real exchange rate misalignment (overvaluation) negatively affects Namibia’s growth domestic product (GDP). Consequently, consistent with current literature, the study supports the view that keeping the real exchange rate at levels close to its equilibrium level or slightly below its equilibrium level can promote economic growth in developing economies such as Namibia. The study, therefore, strongly recommends that the Namibian government should consider a currency undervaluation policy in order to promote economic activities and enhance Namibia’s GDP. it is thus crucial for policymakers to effectively manage real exchange rate regularly and ensure that it does not widely deviate from its equilibrium value. The study also recommends that Namibia should diversify its products and ease the trade barriers so as to promote exports that would boost economic activities. , Thesis (MPhil) -- Faculty of Business and Economic Sciences, School of Economics Development and Tourism, 2021
- Full Text: false
- Date Issued: 2021-04
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