The impact of fiscal and monetary policies on manufacturing sector performance in South Africa
- Authors: Hunter, Desireѐ
- Date: 2023
- Subjects: Manufacturing industries -- South Africa , Fiscal policy -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Doctoral theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10353/28549 , vital:74417
- Description: Regulatory authorities have to date utilised a strategic blend of fiscal and monetary policies in dealing with the unique set of macroeconomic conditions facing South Africa. Government policy intervention has significant implications for economic growth and output within the manufacturing environment. Heterogeneity has also been discerned in relation to the responsiveness of various industries within the manufacturing sector towards both fiscal and monetary policy variable variations. However, given weakened growth prospects, policy alignment issues have been observed. The purpose of this study was firstly, to examine the impact of fiscal and monetary variables on manufacturing sector output in South Africa and secondly, to analyse the manufacturing industry significance of the various monetary transmission mechanism channels. The study made use of quarterly and monthly data to achieve these stated objectives, dated between 1998 and 2020. To achieve the first objective, the study employed the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model given the order of integration of the variables. The empirical results revealed significant, positive relations between tax revenue, deficit financing, nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) and money supply (M3) for total manufacturing (LTOTAL). Contrastingly, there were negative links between LTOTAL, government spending and the lending rate. At a disaggregated industry level, there were positive relations with tax revenue in food and wood industries, although tax revenue was significantly negative for metals. Likewise, to LTOTAL, linkages with spending were significantly negative for wood and metal industries but positive for chemicals. Negative spending signage could be a result of crowding-out. For deficit financing, positive associations within chemicals did not conform to expectations. Similarly, to LTOTAL, wood and metal industries conformed to expectations of negative relations with the lending rate. In respect of the NEER in food and wood production, significant, positive links were established. Contrastingly, a negative linkage existed for chemical activities at the 5% level. Concerning M3 and akin to LTOTAL, the relation with metal industries was positive. However, negative findings for food and chemicals contradicted expectations, suggesting money supply was not efficiently utilised in managing monetary variables in the long-term. The second objective of the study focused on analysing manufacturing industry significance of the various monetary transmission mechanism channels. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) were employed to analyse the relationship between the variables. Impulse response and variance decomposition were also constructed to further trace which channel is more significant in influencing manufacturing output. The empirical results revealed that the interest rate channel occupied a relatively significant role in both LTOTAL and several selected manufacturing industries. Shocks accounted for 9.71%, 11.96% and 14.28% of the variance in LTOTAL, metal and chemical industries. The asset price channel also appeared relatively significant, with shocks to the FTSE/JSE all-share index explaining 18.21% and 21.13% of the variation in food and wood production, signifying the most relevant channel for these particular industries and representing the second most important channel for LTOTAL and the other remaining industries. The exchange rate channel also presented as being a more relevant channel for food and wood, but occupied little role in LTOTAL, whilst the credit channel was relatively ineffectual for both LTOTAL and all industries examined. The results obtained imply that government should exercise caution and demonstrate fiscal restraint and that the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) need to take greater consideration of output fluctuations in monetary policy setting. Research has dictated that an expansionary fiscal policy is generally required as a means to achieving increased growth. However, findings obtained at both the aggregate and disaggregated manufacturing level in South Africa largely varied. This implies significant heterogeneity within the South African manufacturing sector in respect of fiscal policy responses. Expansionary fiscal stimulus packages need to be better targeted towards industries that will most benefit. Similarly, monetary policy responses at the aggregate and disaggregated manufacturing level in South Africa were heterogeneous and furthermore, differed when examining combined policy impacts. There was also a heterogeneous response with respect to relevance of the channels, via which monetary policy operated, with the interest rate channel dominating. SARB do take into consideration output fluctuations in policy setting but this is not currently emphasised or legislated. , Thesis (DCom) -- Faculty of Management and Commerce, 2023
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2023
- Authors: Hunter, Desireѐ
- Date: 2023
- Subjects: Manufacturing industries -- South Africa , Fiscal policy -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Doctoral theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10353/28549 , vital:74417
- Description: Regulatory authorities have to date utilised a strategic blend of fiscal and monetary policies in dealing with the unique set of macroeconomic conditions facing South Africa. Government policy intervention has significant implications for economic growth and output within the manufacturing environment. Heterogeneity has also been discerned in relation to the responsiveness of various industries within the manufacturing sector towards both fiscal and monetary policy variable variations. However, given weakened growth prospects, policy alignment issues have been observed. The purpose of this study was firstly, to examine the impact of fiscal and monetary variables on manufacturing sector output in South Africa and secondly, to analyse the manufacturing industry significance of the various monetary transmission mechanism channels. The study made use of quarterly and monthly data to achieve these stated objectives, dated between 1998 and 2020. To achieve the first objective, the study employed the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model given the order of integration of the variables. The empirical results revealed significant, positive relations between tax revenue, deficit financing, nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) and money supply (M3) for total manufacturing (LTOTAL). Contrastingly, there were negative links between LTOTAL, government spending and the lending rate. At a disaggregated industry level, there were positive relations with tax revenue in food and wood industries, although tax revenue was significantly negative for metals. Likewise, to LTOTAL, linkages with spending were significantly negative for wood and metal industries but positive for chemicals. Negative spending signage could be a result of crowding-out. For deficit financing, positive associations within chemicals did not conform to expectations. Similarly, to LTOTAL, wood and metal industries conformed to expectations of negative relations with the lending rate. In respect of the NEER in food and wood production, significant, positive links were established. Contrastingly, a negative linkage existed for chemical activities at the 5% level. Concerning M3 and akin to LTOTAL, the relation with metal industries was positive. However, negative findings for food and chemicals contradicted expectations, suggesting money supply was not efficiently utilised in managing monetary variables in the long-term. The second objective of the study focused on analysing manufacturing industry significance of the various monetary transmission mechanism channels. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) were employed to analyse the relationship between the variables. Impulse response and variance decomposition were also constructed to further trace which channel is more significant in influencing manufacturing output. The empirical results revealed that the interest rate channel occupied a relatively significant role in both LTOTAL and several selected manufacturing industries. Shocks accounted for 9.71%, 11.96% and 14.28% of the variance in LTOTAL, metal and chemical industries. The asset price channel also appeared relatively significant, with shocks to the FTSE/JSE all-share index explaining 18.21% and 21.13% of the variation in food and wood production, signifying the most relevant channel for these particular industries and representing the second most important channel for LTOTAL and the other remaining industries. The exchange rate channel also presented as being a more relevant channel for food and wood, but occupied little role in LTOTAL, whilst the credit channel was relatively ineffectual for both LTOTAL and all industries examined. The results obtained imply that government should exercise caution and demonstrate fiscal restraint and that the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) need to take greater consideration of output fluctuations in monetary policy setting. Research has dictated that an expansionary fiscal policy is generally required as a means to achieving increased growth. However, findings obtained at both the aggregate and disaggregated manufacturing level in South Africa largely varied. This implies significant heterogeneity within the South African manufacturing sector in respect of fiscal policy responses. Expansionary fiscal stimulus packages need to be better targeted towards industries that will most benefit. Similarly, monetary policy responses at the aggregate and disaggregated manufacturing level in South Africa were heterogeneous and furthermore, differed when examining combined policy impacts. There was also a heterogeneous response with respect to relevance of the channels, via which monetary policy operated, with the interest rate channel dominating. SARB do take into consideration output fluctuations in policy setting but this is not currently emphasised or legislated. , Thesis (DCom) -- Faculty of Management and Commerce, 2023
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2023
Water quality monitoring: a correlation Between the bacteriological quality of drinking water and Diarrhoeal prevalence within the Koukamma local municipality
- Authors: Jacobs, Nathan Elmar
- Date: 2022-04
- Subjects: Water quality monitoring stations -- Koukamma local municipality , Water quality management
- Language: English
- Type: Master's theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/58882 , vital:60244
- Description: Background: Various studies have linked water quality and the prevalence of diarrhoeal cases within developing countries globally. The Emanti water quality monitoring system (eWQMS), representing the Kou-Kamma Local Municipality (Eastern Cape, South Africa), has often yielded non-complaint microbiological drinking water quality results retrospectively. This study investigated the relationship between the bacteriological quality of drinking water and diarrhoeal prevalence in children under five years of age within the Kou-Kamma Local Municipality from 2012 to 2016. Methods: A quantitative, descriptive, and ecological study design was employed retrospectively within the Kou-Kamma Local Municipality. Retrospective data collected from the Emanti Water Quality Monitoring System (eWQMS) represented the bacteriological quality of drinking water within the study area from 2012 to 2016. Concurrently, secondary data from the District Health Information Management System of the Eastern Cape Department of Health: Kouga Local service area was collected. The data represented cases of diarrhoea with dehydration in children under five years of age, reported at public health facilities within the study area retrospectively (from 2012 to 2016). Statistical analyses (Spearman's Rank Correlation) determined the relationship between the bacteriological quality of drinking water and the prevalence of diarrhoea in children under five years as per the retrospective period. Water samples were also collected for 2017 and 2018 to determine the presence of enteric pathogens in the municipal drinking water supply. Results: The study found that the Kou-Kamma Local Municipality had an overall noncompliance rate of 47% for the municipal drinking water supplied to the community from 2012 to 2016 (retrospective period). The difference in failure proportion (noncompliance) of water samples for the four climatic seasons where statistically significant (p=0.004). A significant difference was observed between autumn and winter (p=0.003) and autumn and spring (p=0.025). The failure proportion of water samples for autumn was significantly higher (mean = 0.603231, sd = 0.19528237) compared to winter (mean = 0.316675, sd = 0.19649776) and spring (mean = 0.374495, sd = 0.20626332). No significant difference was observed for the failure proportion of water samples between the various years of the retrospective period xvi (p=0.416). Children under the age of five accounted for n=460 cases of diarrhoea with dehydration at the public health facilities for the retrospective period. The Kareedouw area (n=196) and Joubertina area (n=134) recorded the highest diarrhoeal cases reported for the study period. These two areas both had hospitals that operated 24 hours a day; however, the differences in cases reported between the two areas was not statistically significant (p=0.179). Diarrhoeal case data reported between the various years within the study period were significantly different (p<0.001). The observed differences were between 2012 and 2014 (p=0.008) and 2012 and 2015 (p=0.001). The differences in the cases of diarrhoea with dehydration, in children under five years of age, were not statistically significant for the four climatic seasons (p=0.121). The relationship between the failure proportion of water samples and the prevalence of diarrhoea with dehydration in children under five years of age was statistically significant (p=0.001). The results revealed a moderate positive relationship (rs=0.434) between the bacteriological quality of drinking water and the prevalence of cases of diarrhoea with dehydration. Water samples were collected at various sampling points for July 2017 and November 2018 and analysed for enteric pathogens. Vibrio cholerae, Salmonella sp. and Shigella sp. were detected in such water samples collected. The relationship between the failure proportion of water samples and the presence of enteric pathogens was not statistically significant (rs=0.56723, p=0.240). Conclusion: The overall bacteriological quality of drinking water within the municipality was poor and likely posed a potential health risk to consumers. The study further revealed a steep rise of diarrhoeal with dehydration prevalence in children under five years of age during 2013, which decreased slowly during the years to follow. A moderate, positive relationship existed between the failure proportion of water samples and diarrhoea with dehydration prevalence in children under five years of age (rs=0.434, p=0.001 ). Therefore, municipalities should improve their bulk water infrastructure and drinking water disinfecting methods while realising the need for increased awareness of water-borne disease prevention. , Thesis (MA) -- Faculty of Health Sciences, 2022
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2022-04
- Authors: Jacobs, Nathan Elmar
- Date: 2022-04
- Subjects: Water quality monitoring stations -- Koukamma local municipality , Water quality management
- Language: English
- Type: Master's theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/58882 , vital:60244
- Description: Background: Various studies have linked water quality and the prevalence of diarrhoeal cases within developing countries globally. The Emanti water quality monitoring system (eWQMS), representing the Kou-Kamma Local Municipality (Eastern Cape, South Africa), has often yielded non-complaint microbiological drinking water quality results retrospectively. This study investigated the relationship between the bacteriological quality of drinking water and diarrhoeal prevalence in children under five years of age within the Kou-Kamma Local Municipality from 2012 to 2016. Methods: A quantitative, descriptive, and ecological study design was employed retrospectively within the Kou-Kamma Local Municipality. Retrospective data collected from the Emanti Water Quality Monitoring System (eWQMS) represented the bacteriological quality of drinking water within the study area from 2012 to 2016. Concurrently, secondary data from the District Health Information Management System of the Eastern Cape Department of Health: Kouga Local service area was collected. The data represented cases of diarrhoea with dehydration in children under five years of age, reported at public health facilities within the study area retrospectively (from 2012 to 2016). Statistical analyses (Spearman's Rank Correlation) determined the relationship between the bacteriological quality of drinking water and the prevalence of diarrhoea in children under five years as per the retrospective period. Water samples were also collected for 2017 and 2018 to determine the presence of enteric pathogens in the municipal drinking water supply. Results: The study found that the Kou-Kamma Local Municipality had an overall noncompliance rate of 47% for the municipal drinking water supplied to the community from 2012 to 2016 (retrospective period). The difference in failure proportion (noncompliance) of water samples for the four climatic seasons where statistically significant (p=0.004). A significant difference was observed between autumn and winter (p=0.003) and autumn and spring (p=0.025). The failure proportion of water samples for autumn was significantly higher (mean = 0.603231, sd = 0.19528237) compared to winter (mean = 0.316675, sd = 0.19649776) and spring (mean = 0.374495, sd = 0.20626332). No significant difference was observed for the failure proportion of water samples between the various years of the retrospective period xvi (p=0.416). Children under the age of five accounted for n=460 cases of diarrhoea with dehydration at the public health facilities for the retrospective period. The Kareedouw area (n=196) and Joubertina area (n=134) recorded the highest diarrhoeal cases reported for the study period. These two areas both had hospitals that operated 24 hours a day; however, the differences in cases reported between the two areas was not statistically significant (p=0.179). Diarrhoeal case data reported between the various years within the study period were significantly different (p<0.001). The observed differences were between 2012 and 2014 (p=0.008) and 2012 and 2015 (p=0.001). The differences in the cases of diarrhoea with dehydration, in children under five years of age, were not statistically significant for the four climatic seasons (p=0.121). The relationship between the failure proportion of water samples and the prevalence of diarrhoea with dehydration in children under five years of age was statistically significant (p=0.001). The results revealed a moderate positive relationship (rs=0.434) between the bacteriological quality of drinking water and the prevalence of cases of diarrhoea with dehydration. Water samples were collected at various sampling points for July 2017 and November 2018 and analysed for enteric pathogens. Vibrio cholerae, Salmonella sp. and Shigella sp. were detected in such water samples collected. The relationship between the failure proportion of water samples and the presence of enteric pathogens was not statistically significant (rs=0.56723, p=0.240). Conclusion: The overall bacteriological quality of drinking water within the municipality was poor and likely posed a potential health risk to consumers. The study further revealed a steep rise of diarrhoeal with dehydration prevalence in children under five years of age during 2013, which decreased slowly during the years to follow. A moderate, positive relationship existed between the failure proportion of water samples and diarrhoea with dehydration prevalence in children under five years of age (rs=0.434, p=0.001 ). Therefore, municipalities should improve their bulk water infrastructure and drinking water disinfecting methods while realising the need for increased awareness of water-borne disease prevention. , Thesis (MA) -- Faculty of Health Sciences, 2022
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2022-04
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