Analysis of the existence of the Phillips curve, Okun’s law and Taylor rule in the Zambian economy
- Authors: Chella, Siame Nampasa
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Unemployment -- Effect of inflation -- Mathematical models --Zambia
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/49783 , vital:41800
- Description: The objective for this study was to explore the relationship between inflation and growth with an understanding of the effects of unemployment on growth. The primary objective of this paper was to investigate the existence of Phillips Curve, Okun’s Law, and Taylor Rule in Zambia on the basis that Zambia is a youthful economy, with a growing population, which is expected to temper with unemployment rates, as an increase in the supply of labour might be too high for the demand for jobs available. To be specific, the study aims at determining the relationship between inflation and growth and seeks to understand what policy measures have been undertaken to curb inflation and reduce unemployment in Zambia. To achieve this, a quantitative research was undertaken using the ARDL cointegration model in conjunction with sensitivity tests to cater for structural changes in the economy with 2007 standing as the break point, as well as paying attention to the fact that different policy regimes employed during the course of the data covered, that being, 1996 to 2017, would affect that rates of unemployment, inflation and growth of the country, across period under review. The study revealed that Zambia faces a Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve during the period under study which is dominated by a mixture of both back-ward and forward-looking aspects of inflation. This specifically, paints the effects of inflation persistence as well future expectations of inflation on growth. Further, a cointegration relationship was established between unemployment and output, while Taylor principles were found not to apply to the Zambian economy, which have proved in other economies to be foundation blocks for good economic growth and as such significant to both fiscal and monetary policy authorities of the economy. The researcher therefore recommends that Zambian policy makers, that is, both the fiscal and the monetary authorities, work together in order to attain minimal and optimal levels of inflation to help achieve a conducive economic environment for the country.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
- Authors: Chella, Siame Nampasa
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Unemployment -- Effect of inflation -- Mathematical models --Zambia
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/49783 , vital:41800
- Description: The objective for this study was to explore the relationship between inflation and growth with an understanding of the effects of unemployment on growth. The primary objective of this paper was to investigate the existence of Phillips Curve, Okun’s Law, and Taylor Rule in Zambia on the basis that Zambia is a youthful economy, with a growing population, which is expected to temper with unemployment rates, as an increase in the supply of labour might be too high for the demand for jobs available. To be specific, the study aims at determining the relationship between inflation and growth and seeks to understand what policy measures have been undertaken to curb inflation and reduce unemployment in Zambia. To achieve this, a quantitative research was undertaken using the ARDL cointegration model in conjunction with sensitivity tests to cater for structural changes in the economy with 2007 standing as the break point, as well as paying attention to the fact that different policy regimes employed during the course of the data covered, that being, 1996 to 2017, would affect that rates of unemployment, inflation and growth of the country, across period under review. The study revealed that Zambia faces a Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve during the period under study which is dominated by a mixture of both back-ward and forward-looking aspects of inflation. This specifically, paints the effects of inflation persistence as well future expectations of inflation on growth. Further, a cointegration relationship was established between unemployment and output, while Taylor principles were found not to apply to the Zambian economy, which have proved in other economies to be foundation blocks for good economic growth and as such significant to both fiscal and monetary policy authorities of the economy. The researcher therefore recommends that Zambian policy makers, that is, both the fiscal and the monetary authorities, work together in order to attain minimal and optimal levels of inflation to help achieve a conducive economic environment for the country.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
Budget Deficits, the Savings Gap and Current Account Deficits in the Southern African Development Community
- Authors: Kopeledi, Alyssa
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Budget deficits -- South Africa Accounts current
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom (Economics)
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10353/12392 , vital:39259
- Description: This study examines the validity of the triple deficit hypothesis for a selected number of SADC countries, utilising secondary annual data for the period 1996-2018. Based on previous studies and theory, current account deficit was chosen as the dependent variable and budget deficit and the savings gap as the independent variables. The study makes use of both first generation and second-generation unit root tests to examine the time series properties of the data. The empirical results show that the data is integrated of different orders. Kao, Pedroni and Westerlund cointegration tests were carried out to examine the long-term relationship between the variables of interest. The empirical results revealed that there is a long-term relationship between current account deficit, budget deficit s and the savings gap. The long-run model under the Autoregressive Distributed Lag test revealed that, a positive and significant relationship exists between budget deficit and current account deficit at a significance level of 10% and a negative and insignificant relationship exists between savings gap and current account deficit in the long run. This suggests that an improvement in the current account balance in SADC countries requires fiscal stringency
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
- Authors: Kopeledi, Alyssa
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Budget deficits -- South Africa Accounts current
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom (Economics)
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10353/12392 , vital:39259
- Description: This study examines the validity of the triple deficit hypothesis for a selected number of SADC countries, utilising secondary annual data for the period 1996-2018. Based on previous studies and theory, current account deficit was chosen as the dependent variable and budget deficit and the savings gap as the independent variables. The study makes use of both first generation and second-generation unit root tests to examine the time series properties of the data. The empirical results show that the data is integrated of different orders. Kao, Pedroni and Westerlund cointegration tests were carried out to examine the long-term relationship between the variables of interest. The empirical results revealed that there is a long-term relationship between current account deficit, budget deficit s and the savings gap. The long-run model under the Autoregressive Distributed Lag test revealed that, a positive and significant relationship exists between budget deficit and current account deficit at a significance level of 10% and a negative and insignificant relationship exists between savings gap and current account deficit in the long run. This suggests that an improvement in the current account balance in SADC countries requires fiscal stringency
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
“A criminological study on the effectiveness of Environmental Design towards crime prevention: A case study of Thohoyandou Central Business District under Thulamela Local Municipality in Vhembe District, Limpopo Province
- Muvhango, Khathutshelo Moses
- Authors: Muvhango, Khathutshelo Moses
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Crime prevention
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MSoc (Criminology)
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10353/18209 , vital:42242
- Description: The main aim of this study was to explore the effectiveness of Environmental Design as method of Crime Prevention. It was carried out in Thohoyandou Central Business District under Thulamela Local Municipality in Vhembe District in Limpopo Province. The qualitative research approach, with non-probability sampling methods, was used in this study. Semi-structured interviews were used as data collection instruments in this study. The study employed thematic data analysis method to generate the findings from the data collected. In this study the researcher used the situational crime theory and the crime pattern theory. The study revealed many challenges hindering the effectiveness of Environmental Design as crime prevention method in Thulamela Local Municipality. The researcher discovered that most of the people are ignorant of where surveillance systems can be found. The study further concludes that though security/help was near, there was need for more police officers within the CBD of Thohoyandou. The areas also need more police posts, bumps and police patrols. Unnecessary security features hinder movement and relaxation.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
- Authors: Muvhango, Khathutshelo Moses
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Crime prevention
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MSoc (Criminology)
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10353/18209 , vital:42242
- Description: The main aim of this study was to explore the effectiveness of Environmental Design as method of Crime Prevention. It was carried out in Thohoyandou Central Business District under Thulamela Local Municipality in Vhembe District in Limpopo Province. The qualitative research approach, with non-probability sampling methods, was used in this study. Semi-structured interviews were used as data collection instruments in this study. The study employed thematic data analysis method to generate the findings from the data collected. In this study the researcher used the situational crime theory and the crime pattern theory. The study revealed many challenges hindering the effectiveness of Environmental Design as crime prevention method in Thulamela Local Municipality. The researcher discovered that most of the people are ignorant of where surveillance systems can be found. The study further concludes that though security/help was near, there was need for more police officers within the CBD of Thohoyandou. The areas also need more police posts, bumps and police patrols. Unnecessary security features hinder movement and relaxation.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
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