The term structure of interest rates and economic activity in South Africa
- Authors: Shelile, Teboho
- Date: 2007
- Subjects: Finance -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions -- 21st century
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:994 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002729 , Finance -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions -- 21st century
- Description: Many research papers have documented the positive relationship between the slope of the yield curve and future real economic activity in different countries and different time periods. One explanation of this link is based on monetary policy. The forecasting ability of the term spread on economic growth is based on the fact that interest rates reflect the expectations of investors about the future economic situation when deciding about their plans for consumption and investment. This thesis examined the predictive ability of the term structure of interest rates on economic activity, and the effects of different monetary policy regimes on the predictive ability of the term spread. The South African experience offers a unique opportunity to examine this issue, as the country has experienced numerous monetary policy frameworks since the 1970s. The study employed the Generalised Method Moments technique, since it is considered to be more efficient than Ordinary Least Squares. Results presented in this thesis established that the term structure successfully predicted real economic activity during the entire research period with the exception of the last sub-period (2000-2004) when using the multivariate model. In the periods of financial market liberalisation and interest rates deregulation the term structure was found to be a better predictor of economic activity in South Africa. These findings emphasise the importance of considering the prevailing economic environment in testing the term structure theory.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
- Authors: Shelile, Teboho
- Date: 2007
- Subjects: Finance -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions -- 21st century
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:994 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002729 , Finance -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions -- 21st century
- Description: Many research papers have documented the positive relationship between the slope of the yield curve and future real economic activity in different countries and different time periods. One explanation of this link is based on monetary policy. The forecasting ability of the term spread on economic growth is based on the fact that interest rates reflect the expectations of investors about the future economic situation when deciding about their plans for consumption and investment. This thesis examined the predictive ability of the term structure of interest rates on economic activity, and the effects of different monetary policy regimes on the predictive ability of the term spread. The South African experience offers a unique opportunity to examine this issue, as the country has experienced numerous monetary policy frameworks since the 1970s. The study employed the Generalised Method Moments technique, since it is considered to be more efficient than Ordinary Least Squares. Results presented in this thesis established that the term structure successfully predicted real economic activity during the entire research period with the exception of the last sub-period (2000-2004) when using the multivariate model. In the periods of financial market liberalisation and interest rates deregulation the term structure was found to be a better predictor of economic activity in South Africa. These findings emphasise the importance of considering the prevailing economic environment in testing the term structure theory.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
Towards a framework for identity verification of vulnerable children within the Eastern Cape
- Authors: Rautenbach, James
- Date: 2007
- Subjects: Biometric identification , Information storage and retrieval systems , Children -- Services for -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MTech
- Identifier: vital:9792 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/597 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/d1011702 , Biometric identification , Information storage and retrieval systems , Children -- Services for -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape
- Description: This dissertation proposes the development of an identification verification model that can be implemented within the context of the Eastern Cape, South Africa in order to ensure that vulnerable children are provided with the requisite care that they deserve from the state. The dissertation provides both a developed and developing world perspective on the identification verification needs of vulnerable children by providing an overview of relevant South African policy with regard to caring for vulnerable children and presenting an international perspective with specific reference to current legislative developments in the United Kingdom and Malaysia. Chapter 1 provides a motivation for a framework to be used for the identification verification of children in developing countries by emphasising that the provision of basic social services to children is an urgent requirement for poverty eradication and is a necessity as documented in the United Nations Convention on the Rights of the Child. A background to the needs of vulnerable children in South Africa is given and the scope, limitations and research methodology used in the dissertation is presented. Chapter 2 provides an overview of child related policy in the South African Context both from a National Government and Eastern Cape perspective. Although extensive progress has been made in the development of policies aimed at protecting vulnerable children, the practical implementation of these policies has been hampered by numerous issues including the lack of coordination between key entities. Chapter 3 provides an introduction to several noteworthy international developments with regard to the identity verification of vulnerable children. Lessons learnt from identity verification systems from the United Kingdom and Malaysia are analyzed for applicability to the South African context. In addition to this, the use of biometric technology in identity verification systems and a number of biometric identification methodologies available are discussed. Chapter 4 proposes the development and implementation of a biometric identity verification model in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa based on lessons learnt from the assessment of South African policy and international best practice. The system should be piloted in the Eastern Cape and, if successful, be implemented throughout South Africa with a possible view to future implementation on the African continent. The scope of the system, the technological requirements and a high level implementation plan together with the need to further research certain key aspects e.g. the cost implications are discussed. It is clear that the development of such a model and the implementation of such a system will ensure that vulnerable children are provided with the requisite care that they are constitutionally entitled to. Significant follow up research is required during the development of the model to ensure that all aspects of the model are well documented and during the implementation of the system to ensure that the requirements of the users both within the government and the general public are met.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
- Authors: Rautenbach, James
- Date: 2007
- Subjects: Biometric identification , Information storage and retrieval systems , Children -- Services for -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MTech
- Identifier: vital:9792 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/597 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/d1011702 , Biometric identification , Information storage and retrieval systems , Children -- Services for -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape
- Description: This dissertation proposes the development of an identification verification model that can be implemented within the context of the Eastern Cape, South Africa in order to ensure that vulnerable children are provided with the requisite care that they deserve from the state. The dissertation provides both a developed and developing world perspective on the identification verification needs of vulnerable children by providing an overview of relevant South African policy with regard to caring for vulnerable children and presenting an international perspective with specific reference to current legislative developments in the United Kingdom and Malaysia. Chapter 1 provides a motivation for a framework to be used for the identification verification of children in developing countries by emphasising that the provision of basic social services to children is an urgent requirement for poverty eradication and is a necessity as documented in the United Nations Convention on the Rights of the Child. A background to the needs of vulnerable children in South Africa is given and the scope, limitations and research methodology used in the dissertation is presented. Chapter 2 provides an overview of child related policy in the South African Context both from a National Government and Eastern Cape perspective. Although extensive progress has been made in the development of policies aimed at protecting vulnerable children, the practical implementation of these policies has been hampered by numerous issues including the lack of coordination between key entities. Chapter 3 provides an introduction to several noteworthy international developments with regard to the identity verification of vulnerable children. Lessons learnt from identity verification systems from the United Kingdom and Malaysia are analyzed for applicability to the South African context. In addition to this, the use of biometric technology in identity verification systems and a number of biometric identification methodologies available are discussed. Chapter 4 proposes the development and implementation of a biometric identity verification model in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa based on lessons learnt from the assessment of South African policy and international best practice. The system should be piloted in the Eastern Cape and, if successful, be implemented throughout South Africa with a possible view to future implementation on the African continent. The scope of the system, the technological requirements and a high level implementation plan together with the need to further research certain key aspects e.g. the cost implications are discussed. It is clear that the development of such a model and the implementation of such a system will ensure that vulnerable children are provided with the requisite care that they are constitutionally entitled to. Significant follow up research is required during the development of the model to ensure that all aspects of the model are well documented and during the implementation of the system to ensure that the requirements of the users both within the government and the general public are met.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
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