The relationship between interest rates and inflation in South Africa : revisiting Fisher's hypothesis
- Authors: Mitchell-Innes, Henry Alexander
- Date: 2006
- Subjects: Fisher effect (Economics) , Interest rates -- South Africa , Interest rates -- Effect of inflation -- South Africa , Inflation (Finance) -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Banks and banking, Central -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:991 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002726 , Fisher effect (Economics) , Interest rates -- South Africa , Interest rates -- Effect of inflation -- South Africa , Inflation (Finance) -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Banks and banking, Central -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Description: This thesis investigates the relationship between expected inflation and nominal interest rates in South Africa and the extent to which the Fisher effect hypothesis holds. The hypothesis, proposed by Fisher (1930), that the nominal rate of interest should reflect movements in the expected rate of inflation has been the subject of much empirical research in many industrialised countries. This wealth of literature can be attributed to various factors including the pivotal role that the nominal rate of interest and, perhaps more importantly, the real rate of interest plays in the economy. The validity of the Fisher effect also has important implications for monetary policy and needs to be considered by central banks. Few studies have been conducted in South Africa to validate this important hypothesis. The analysis uses the 3-month bankers’ acceptance rate and the 10-year government bond rate to proxy both short- and long-term interest rates. The existence of a long-run unit proportional relationship between nominal interest rates and expected inflation is tested using Johansen’s cointegration test. The data is analysed for the period April 2000 to July 2005 as the research aims to establish whether the Fisher relationship holds within an inflation targeting monetary policy framework. The short-run Fisher effect is not empirically verified. This is due to the effects of the monetary policy transmission mechanism and implies that short-term nominal interest rates are a good indication of the stance of monetary policy. A long-run cointegrating relationship is established between long-term interest rates and expected inflation. The long-run adjustment is less than unity, which can be attributed to the credibility of the inflation-targeting framework.
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- Date Issued: 2006
The taxation of black economic empowerment transactions, with specific reference to the financial sector
- Authors: Kamlana, Unathi
- Date: 2006
- Subjects: Black people -- South Africa -- Economic conditions , Business enterprises, Black -- Taxation -- South Africa , Employee empowerment -- South Africa , Income tax -- Law and legislation -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:896 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1004544 , Black people -- South Africa -- Economic conditions , Business enterprises, Black -- Taxation -- South Africa , Employee empowerment -- South Africa , Income tax -- Law and legislation -- South Africa
- Description: There has been some concern that the pace of expectations being built up regarding the transfer of ownership of the economy into the hands of the previously disadvantaged was not allowing for the due diligence and analysis of the implications of such transactions. Tax legislation relating to the transfer of assets is also not seen to be consistently conducive to this process. The focus of this thesis is taxation and a critical analysis of how the current tax legislation affects most of the transactions which usually form the basis of black economic empowerment. It is argued that tax policy is one of the fundamental instruments available to government to encourage the process of black economic empowerment. It is therefore important to assess whether or not current tax legislation is supportive of the process of black economic empowerment and to suggest ways in which it can be amended to serve this purpose. By means of a literature review and a case study of a Black Economic Empowerment deal in the financial sector, the thesis examines various sections of the Income Tax Act, 58 of 1962, which may have a bearing on black economic empowerment transactions and structures, including corporate restructuring rules, the taxation of trusts, inter-company loans, the use of hybrid financial instruments, the taxation of small business corporations, employee share incentive schemes, connected persons rules and value-shifting arrangements, the general deduction formula and the deductibility of interest incurred on amounts raised to acquire shares. It appears that although some aspects of the current tax legislation lend themselves to assisting black economic empowerment transactions, there are still areas where much improvement is required. , KMBT_363
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- Date Issued: 2006
The yield curve as a forecasting tool : does the yield spread predict recessions in South Africa?
- Authors: Khomo, Melvin Muzi
- Date: 2006
- Subjects: Recessions -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Economic indicators -- South Africa , Business cycles -- History -- 20th century , Business cycles -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1040 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1004722 , Recessions -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Economic indicators -- South Africa , Business cycles -- History -- 20th century , Business cycles -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Description: This paper examines the ability of the yield curve to predict recessions in South Africa, and compares its predictive power with other commonly used variables that include the growth rate in real money supply, changes in stock prices and the index of leading economic indicators. The study also makes an attempt to find out if monetary policy explains the yield spread's predictive power with regards to future economic activity. Regarding methodology, the standard probit model proposed by Estrella and Mishkin (1996) that directly estimates the probability of the economy going into recession is used. Results from this model are compared with a modified probit model suggested by Dueker (1997) that includes a lagged dependent variable. Results presented in the paper provide further evidence that the yield curve, as represented by the yield spread between 3-month and IO-year government paper, can be used to estimate the likelihood of recessions in South Africa. The yield spread can produce recession forecasts up to 18 months, although it's best predictive power is seen at two quarters. Results from the standard probit model and the modified pro bit model with a lagged dependent variable are somewhat similar, although the latter model improves forecasts at shorter horizons up to 3 months. Compared with other indicators, real M3 growth is a noisy indicator and does not provide much information about future recessions, whilst movements in the All-Share index can provide information for up to 12 months but does not do better than the yield curve. The index of leading economic indicators outperforms the yield spread in the short run up to 4 months but the spread performs better at longer horizons. Based on the results from the study, it appears that changes in monetary policy explain the yield spread's predictive power. This is because the yield spread loses its explanatory power when combined with a variable representing the monetary policy stance of the central bank.
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- Date Issued: 2006