The effect of the exchange rate on inflation in South Africa
- Authors: Gwili, Lutho Olwethu
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Inflation (Finance) -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- Africa South Foreign exchange rates -- Econometric models -- Africa South South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/39643 , vital:35341
- Description: The depreciation of the rand in recent years has been one of the indicators of recession in South Africa. The unpredictability of the rand and its volatility has led to great inflationary pressure. The process of examining the relationship between South Africa’s exchange rate and inflation rate has become increasingly relevant down the years. This study analyses the relationship between exchange rate and inflation in South Africa from 1994Q1 to 2017Q4. Its objective is to establish the effect of the exchange rate on inflation in South Africa. The non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model is employed as the method of estimation. Trends in exchange rate and inflation between 1980 and 2017 are analysed. Monetary régimes and shifts in inflation down the years are discussed. Key events like the Asian financial crisis of 1998, the introduction of the inflation targeting framework in 2000, the significant depreciation of the rand in 2001 and the global financial crisis in 2008/09 all contributed majorly in the way the country’s monetary policy and inflation take the form they have today. The literature identifies the exchange rate pass-through, purchasing power parity (PPP) and absolute power parity (APP) as exchange rate theories, all in which are discussed in detail. Empirical evidence suggests a predominantly positive relationship between inflation rate and exchange rate in other African countries as well as in developed countries. The exchange rate pass-through in South Africa appears to have lessened down the years. The NARDL model is discussed in detail in the research methodology chapter. The main reason for using this method of estimation is to capture asymmetry effects that may exist between inflation and exchange rate. First and second generation unit root tests, like Ng-Perron, DF-GLS and KSS, are discussed in detail to capture the stationarity of the variables. The variables of interest include nominal effective exchange rate, Brent crude oil prices, prime lending rate, unemployment rate and M3 money supply. This is done in line with the literature. The vector autoregressive (VAR) model is briefly discussed in the research methodology chapter. The findings of the study reveal that an appreciation in the exchange rate decreases the inflation rate. The results also reveal that a depreciation in the exchange rate decreases the inflation rate, which happens not to be in line with economic theory. This implies that a depreciation has a negative effect on inflation. A positive relationship between oil price and inflation is found to exist. A negative relationship is found to exist between M3 money supply and inflation. There is a positive relationship between prime lending rate and inflation. The study found that the Phillips curve does not hold in South Africa. The estimated VAR model results reveal that there exists unidirectional causality running from nominal effective exchange rate to inflation rate. The impulse response function reveals a negative relationship between exchange rate and inflation. Therefore, the study proposes that policymakers evolve means of evaluating exchange rate volatility, and that lending rates be made flexible. This will help curb inflation in South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
- Authors: Gwili, Lutho Olwethu
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Inflation (Finance) -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- Africa South Foreign exchange rates -- Econometric models -- Africa South South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/39643 , vital:35341
- Description: The depreciation of the rand in recent years has been one of the indicators of recession in South Africa. The unpredictability of the rand and its volatility has led to great inflationary pressure. The process of examining the relationship between South Africa’s exchange rate and inflation rate has become increasingly relevant down the years. This study analyses the relationship between exchange rate and inflation in South Africa from 1994Q1 to 2017Q4. Its objective is to establish the effect of the exchange rate on inflation in South Africa. The non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model is employed as the method of estimation. Trends in exchange rate and inflation between 1980 and 2017 are analysed. Monetary régimes and shifts in inflation down the years are discussed. Key events like the Asian financial crisis of 1998, the introduction of the inflation targeting framework in 2000, the significant depreciation of the rand in 2001 and the global financial crisis in 2008/09 all contributed majorly in the way the country’s monetary policy and inflation take the form they have today. The literature identifies the exchange rate pass-through, purchasing power parity (PPP) and absolute power parity (APP) as exchange rate theories, all in which are discussed in detail. Empirical evidence suggests a predominantly positive relationship between inflation rate and exchange rate in other African countries as well as in developed countries. The exchange rate pass-through in South Africa appears to have lessened down the years. The NARDL model is discussed in detail in the research methodology chapter. The main reason for using this method of estimation is to capture asymmetry effects that may exist between inflation and exchange rate. First and second generation unit root tests, like Ng-Perron, DF-GLS and KSS, are discussed in detail to capture the stationarity of the variables. The variables of interest include nominal effective exchange rate, Brent crude oil prices, prime lending rate, unemployment rate and M3 money supply. This is done in line with the literature. The vector autoregressive (VAR) model is briefly discussed in the research methodology chapter. The findings of the study reveal that an appreciation in the exchange rate decreases the inflation rate. The results also reveal that a depreciation in the exchange rate decreases the inflation rate, which happens not to be in line with economic theory. This implies that a depreciation has a negative effect on inflation. A positive relationship between oil price and inflation is found to exist. A negative relationship is found to exist between M3 money supply and inflation. There is a positive relationship between prime lending rate and inflation. The study found that the Phillips curve does not hold in South Africa. The estimated VAR model results reveal that there exists unidirectional causality running from nominal effective exchange rate to inflation rate. The impulse response function reveals a negative relationship between exchange rate and inflation. Therefore, the study proposes that policymakers evolve means of evaluating exchange rate volatility, and that lending rates be made flexible. This will help curb inflation in South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
Urban agriculture and stokvels
- Authors: Sonti, Yolisa Wendy
- Date: 2018
- Subjects: Urban agriculture -- Economic aspects , Agriculture -- Finance Cooperative societies
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MBA
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/23142 , vital:30433
- Description: Agriculture has been identified as a strategy for sustainable development in an attempt to improve food security and alleviate poverty around the world. Urban agriculture is the practise of farming and gardening in urban and peri-urban areas. There has been a growing trend to involve innovative methods to urban agriculture due to lack of land in urban areas. Stokvels are informal saving groups popularly used in South Africa. This is one of the strategies families in South Africa use to generate income, as a result of the high rate of unemployment in the country. The income from stokvels is used by members to source food and sustain their families. This study aims to investigate the possibility of using stokvels in urban agriculture for entrepreneurial purposes to improve the level of food security and alleviate unemployment and increase the household income of families in South Africa. This study therefore reviews literature on urban agriculture and identifies its enablers and barriers. Literature on stokvels is also reviewed, the reasons for participation in stokvels are highlighted and the different types of stokvels are also identified. The literature that was reviewed on urban agriculture and stokvels informed the questionnaire of the study. A self-administered questionnaire was distributed to a representative sample of 152 stokvel members in the Nelson Mandela Bay Area. The results from the questionnaire were then analysed using univariate analysis and descriptive statistics. Multivariate analysis and inferential statistics were also used for data analysis. The findings of the study revealed that stokvel members know agriculture activities although they do not use their stokvel funds to participate in urban agriculture. The study found that stokvel members participate in stokvels as means to generate income for their households. It was also found that there is interest among stokvel members to use their stokvel funds in urban agriculture. A conceptual model of urban agriculture for stokvel members was developed from the study which enabled the possibility for future detailed research in testing the model.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2018
- Authors: Sonti, Yolisa Wendy
- Date: 2018
- Subjects: Urban agriculture -- Economic aspects , Agriculture -- Finance Cooperative societies
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MBA
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/23142 , vital:30433
- Description: Agriculture has been identified as a strategy for sustainable development in an attempt to improve food security and alleviate poverty around the world. Urban agriculture is the practise of farming and gardening in urban and peri-urban areas. There has been a growing trend to involve innovative methods to urban agriculture due to lack of land in urban areas. Stokvels are informal saving groups popularly used in South Africa. This is one of the strategies families in South Africa use to generate income, as a result of the high rate of unemployment in the country. The income from stokvels is used by members to source food and sustain their families. This study aims to investigate the possibility of using stokvels in urban agriculture for entrepreneurial purposes to improve the level of food security and alleviate unemployment and increase the household income of families in South Africa. This study therefore reviews literature on urban agriculture and identifies its enablers and barriers. Literature on stokvels is also reviewed, the reasons for participation in stokvels are highlighted and the different types of stokvels are also identified. The literature that was reviewed on urban agriculture and stokvels informed the questionnaire of the study. A self-administered questionnaire was distributed to a representative sample of 152 stokvel members in the Nelson Mandela Bay Area. The results from the questionnaire were then analysed using univariate analysis and descriptive statistics. Multivariate analysis and inferential statistics were also used for data analysis. The findings of the study revealed that stokvel members know agriculture activities although they do not use their stokvel funds to participate in urban agriculture. The study found that stokvel members participate in stokvels as means to generate income for their households. It was also found that there is interest among stokvel members to use their stokvel funds in urban agriculture. A conceptual model of urban agriculture for stokvel members was developed from the study which enabled the possibility for future detailed research in testing the model.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2018
Exploring the management of inter-clan conflict by non-governmental organisations in Wajir Country, Kenya
- Authors: Noor, Mohamed Sheikh
- Date: 2013
- Subjects: Conflict management -- Kenya -- Wajir District , Clans -- Kenya -- Wajir District , Non-governmental organizations -- Kenya -- Wajir District
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MA
- Identifier: vital:8293 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/d1018701
- Description: The reality today is that we are all interdependent and have to co-exist on this small planet therefore, the only sensible and intelligent way of resolving differences and clashes of interests, whether between individuals or nations, is through dialogue --the Dalai Lama Nomadic pastoralist communities all over the world depend on the keeping livestock for their livelihood, and are characterized by constant migration, in search of pasture and water, or what others may call “search for greener pastures”. Most often as the case such as in Northern Kenya these communities or clans are in conflict with each other mainly over the same scarce resources- water and pasture. This particular treatise explores the role of local NGOs in managing such inter-clan conflict. As aptly put by Lewis (1981: 10-13), when grazing land is abundant, settlement patterns of the pastoral communities may include many non patrilineal kin, or other clans, the true patrilineal kin is honored when pressure arises in the form of diminishing water and pasture, in such instances those who are not one‟s clan become undesirable aliens, thus it is was not a surprise to witness, in the course of conducting the study the many sprouting settlements in Wajir County consisting of entirely agnatic kin, meant to protect “clan‟s” ideals at any costs. Intra-clan and inter-clan conflicts are thus common in the entire Northern Kenya; this study explores the management of inter-clan conflict in Wajir County, North Eastern Province of Kenya. In particular, this research offers an exploration and discussion of the sources of inter-clan conflict, the role of the local NGOs and the perceptions of the local communities, politicians, provincial administration and the local peace committees in the processes of the managing inter-clan conflicts by the local NGOs. With reference to relevant research and literature, as well as the researcher‟s good background understanding on the interventions of the local NGOs in Wajir County, this treatise will provide a series of recommendations to respond to the recurrent inter-clan conflict in the Wajir County, which to some extent could also be applicable to communities with similar settings in Africa and beyond.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2013
- Authors: Noor, Mohamed Sheikh
- Date: 2013
- Subjects: Conflict management -- Kenya -- Wajir District , Clans -- Kenya -- Wajir District , Non-governmental organizations -- Kenya -- Wajir District
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MA
- Identifier: vital:8293 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/d1018701
- Description: The reality today is that we are all interdependent and have to co-exist on this small planet therefore, the only sensible and intelligent way of resolving differences and clashes of interests, whether between individuals or nations, is through dialogue --the Dalai Lama Nomadic pastoralist communities all over the world depend on the keeping livestock for their livelihood, and are characterized by constant migration, in search of pasture and water, or what others may call “search for greener pastures”. Most often as the case such as in Northern Kenya these communities or clans are in conflict with each other mainly over the same scarce resources- water and pasture. This particular treatise explores the role of local NGOs in managing such inter-clan conflict. As aptly put by Lewis (1981: 10-13), when grazing land is abundant, settlement patterns of the pastoral communities may include many non patrilineal kin, or other clans, the true patrilineal kin is honored when pressure arises in the form of diminishing water and pasture, in such instances those who are not one‟s clan become undesirable aliens, thus it is was not a surprise to witness, in the course of conducting the study the many sprouting settlements in Wajir County consisting of entirely agnatic kin, meant to protect “clan‟s” ideals at any costs. Intra-clan and inter-clan conflicts are thus common in the entire Northern Kenya; this study explores the management of inter-clan conflict in Wajir County, North Eastern Province of Kenya. In particular, this research offers an exploration and discussion of the sources of inter-clan conflict, the role of the local NGOs and the perceptions of the local communities, politicians, provincial administration and the local peace committees in the processes of the managing inter-clan conflicts by the local NGOs. With reference to relevant research and literature, as well as the researcher‟s good background understanding on the interventions of the local NGOs in Wajir County, this treatise will provide a series of recommendations to respond to the recurrent inter-clan conflict in the Wajir County, which to some extent could also be applicable to communities with similar settings in Africa and beyond.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2013
Enumeration of insect viruses using microscopic and molecular analyses: South African isolate of cryotophlebia leucotreta granulovirus as a case study
- Authors: Dhladhla, Busisiwe I R
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Baculoviruses , Insects -- Viruses , Molecular genetics , Microbial genomics
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
- Identifier: vital:10318 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/d1008395 , Baculoviruses , Insects -- Viruses , Molecular genetics , Microbial genomics
- Description: Baculoviruses have been used as biocontrol agents to control insect pests in agriculture since the 1970s. Out of the fifteen virus families known to infect insects, baculoviruses offer the greatest potential as insect biopesticides, due to their high host specificity which makes them extremely safe to humans, other vertebrates, plants and non-target microorganisms. They comprise of two genera: nucleopolyhedroviruses (NPVs) and granuloviruses (GVs). The South African isolate of Cryptophlebia leucotreta granulovirus (CrleGV-SA) which is infectious for the false codling moth (FCM), Thaumatotibia leucotreta, (Meyrick) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae), has been successfully developed into two commercial biopesticides; Cryptogran® and Cryptex®, for the control of FCM in citrus crops. The current method of enumeration used for CrleGV-SA virus particles in routine experiments during the production of the GV as biopesticides, is dark field microscopy. However, due to the small size of GVs (300-500 nm in length), the technique is not easy to perform on these viruses, and no systemic comparison has been made of potential alternative methods. Therefore, the main objective of this study was to develop a quantitative enumeration method for CrleGV-SA occlusion bodies (OBs) which is accurate, reliable, and feasible, and compare the developed methods of enumeration to the current method. Purified and semi-purified CrleGV-SA viral stocks were prepared for enumeration studies using spectrophotometry, dark field microscopy, scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and real time qPCR. Spectrophotometry was found to be an unreliable method for enumeration of GVs in the production, standardisation, and quality control of biopesticides. Dark field microscopy and SEM were found to be accurate, and statistically comparable (p = 0.064) enumeration techniques. qPCR is currently being optimised for the enumeration of GVs. This technique was demonstrated to generate accurate standard curves for absolute quantification of virus particles for pure and semi-pure virus preparations. qPCR offers the greatest potential as an accurate enumeration method because it is not affected by contamination with non-biological contaminating debris, nor by other biological material due to the specificity of PCR primers. Further work is required to fully develop qPCR as an enumeration method for GVs. However, dark field microscopy has been successfully validated as an enumeration method. SEM, which has a high resolution compared to light microscopy, has an added advantage over dark field microscopy, which is to distinguish virus particles in semi-pure viral stock preparations during counting. Therefore, SEM currently provides the most unambiguous and feasible enumeration method for GVs in both purified and semi-purified virus samples.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
- Authors: Dhladhla, Busisiwe I R
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Baculoviruses , Insects -- Viruses , Molecular genetics , Microbial genomics
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
- Identifier: vital:10318 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/d1008395 , Baculoviruses , Insects -- Viruses , Molecular genetics , Microbial genomics
- Description: Baculoviruses have been used as biocontrol agents to control insect pests in agriculture since the 1970s. Out of the fifteen virus families known to infect insects, baculoviruses offer the greatest potential as insect biopesticides, due to their high host specificity which makes them extremely safe to humans, other vertebrates, plants and non-target microorganisms. They comprise of two genera: nucleopolyhedroviruses (NPVs) and granuloviruses (GVs). The South African isolate of Cryptophlebia leucotreta granulovirus (CrleGV-SA) which is infectious for the false codling moth (FCM), Thaumatotibia leucotreta, (Meyrick) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae), has been successfully developed into two commercial biopesticides; Cryptogran® and Cryptex®, for the control of FCM in citrus crops. The current method of enumeration used for CrleGV-SA virus particles in routine experiments during the production of the GV as biopesticides, is dark field microscopy. However, due to the small size of GVs (300-500 nm in length), the technique is not easy to perform on these viruses, and no systemic comparison has been made of potential alternative methods. Therefore, the main objective of this study was to develop a quantitative enumeration method for CrleGV-SA occlusion bodies (OBs) which is accurate, reliable, and feasible, and compare the developed methods of enumeration to the current method. Purified and semi-purified CrleGV-SA viral stocks were prepared for enumeration studies using spectrophotometry, dark field microscopy, scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and real time qPCR. Spectrophotometry was found to be an unreliable method for enumeration of GVs in the production, standardisation, and quality control of biopesticides. Dark field microscopy and SEM were found to be accurate, and statistically comparable (p = 0.064) enumeration techniques. qPCR is currently being optimised for the enumeration of GVs. This technique was demonstrated to generate accurate standard curves for absolute quantification of virus particles for pure and semi-pure virus preparations. qPCR offers the greatest potential as an accurate enumeration method because it is not affected by contamination with non-biological contaminating debris, nor by other biological material due to the specificity of PCR primers. Further work is required to fully develop qPCR as an enumeration method for GVs. However, dark field microscopy has been successfully validated as an enumeration method. SEM, which has a high resolution compared to light microscopy, has an added advantage over dark field microscopy, which is to distinguish virus particles in semi-pure viral stock preparations during counting. Therefore, SEM currently provides the most unambiguous and feasible enumeration method for GVs in both purified and semi-purified virus samples.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
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