Land reform in South Africa: effects on land prices and productivity
- Authors: Van Rooyen, Jonathan
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: Right of property -- South Africa , Land reform -- South Africa , Agriculture and state -- South Africa , Agricultural prices -- South Africa , Land tenure -- Government policy -- South Africa , Land reform -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , Real property -- Prices -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:987 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002721
- Description: South Africa’s land redistribution policy (1994-2008) has been widely publicised, and has come under scrutiny of late from the public, private and government spheres, highlighting a need for research in this area. The research examines progress in South Africa’s land redistribution programme in two of KwaZulu-Natal’s district municipalities, Uthungulu and iLembe. Specifically the research investigates whether the government has paid above market prices when purchasing sugarcane farmland for redistribution in these districts. Moreover, it is illustrated how productivity on redistributed farms has been affected with the changes in ownership. To investigate the research questions, reviews of theories pertaining to property rights, land reform and market structures were conducted. Moreover, two cases studies were conducted in the districts of Uthungulu and iLembe, with assistance from the Department of Land Affairs, Inkezo Land Company and the South African Cane Growers Association. The case study data indicate that above ordinary market prices have been paid (2004-2006) by the government for sugarcane farmland in the districts concerned, and further that productivity has been negatively impacted ‘during’ and ‘post‘ transfer, in the majority of cases.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2009
- Authors: Van Rooyen, Jonathan
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: Right of property -- South Africa , Land reform -- South Africa , Agriculture and state -- South Africa , Agricultural prices -- South Africa , Land tenure -- Government policy -- South Africa , Land reform -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , Real property -- Prices -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:987 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002721
- Description: South Africa’s land redistribution policy (1994-2008) has been widely publicised, and has come under scrutiny of late from the public, private and government spheres, highlighting a need for research in this area. The research examines progress in South Africa’s land redistribution programme in two of KwaZulu-Natal’s district municipalities, Uthungulu and iLembe. Specifically the research investigates whether the government has paid above market prices when purchasing sugarcane farmland for redistribution in these districts. Moreover, it is illustrated how productivity on redistributed farms has been affected with the changes in ownership. To investigate the research questions, reviews of theories pertaining to property rights, land reform and market structures were conducted. Moreover, two cases studies were conducted in the districts of Uthungulu and iLembe, with assistance from the Department of Land Affairs, Inkezo Land Company and the South African Cane Growers Association. The case study data indicate that above ordinary market prices have been paid (2004-2006) by the government for sugarcane farmland in the districts concerned, and further that productivity has been negatively impacted ‘during’ and ‘post‘ transfer, in the majority of cases.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2009
Macroeconomic convergence within SADC : implications for the formation of a regional monetary union
- Authors: Johns, Michael Ryan
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: Southern African Development Community , Economic and Monetary Union , Common Monetary Area (Organization) , Economic policy -- Africa, Southern , Monetary policy -- Africa, Southern , Monetary unions , Macroeconomics
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1023 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002758 , Southern African Development Community , Economic and Monetary Union , Common Monetary Area (Organization) , Economic policy -- Africa, Southern , Monetary policy -- Africa, Southern , Monetary unions , Macroeconomics
- Description: Given the growing effect that globalisation and integration has had upon economies and regions, the process of monetary union has become an increasingly topical issue in economic policy debates. This has been driven in part by the experience and successes of the European Monetary Union (EMU), which is widely perceived as beneficial to member countries. The Southern African Development Community (SADC) is an example of a group of countries that has realised that there are benefits that may arise from economic integration. This paper makes use of an interest-rate pass through model to investigate whether the pass-through of monetary policy transmission in ten SADC countries has become more similar between January 1990 and December 2007 using monthly interest rate data. This is done to determine the extent of macroeconomic convergence that prevails within SADC, and consequently establish whether the formation of a regional monetary union is feasible. The results of the empirical pass-through model were robust and show that there are certain countries that have a more efficient and similar monetary transmission process than others. In particular, the countries that form the Common Monetary Area (CMA) and the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) tend to show evidence of convergence in monetary policy transmission, especially since 2000. In addition, from analysis of the long-run pass-through, the results reveal that there is evidence that Malawi and Zambia have shown signs of convergence toward the countries that form the CMA and SACU, in terms of monetary policy transmission. The study concludes that a SADC wide monetary union is currently not feasible based on the evidence provided from the results of the pass-through analysis. Despite this, it can be tentatively suggested that the CMA may be expanded to include Botswana, Malawi and Zambia.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2009
- Authors: Johns, Michael Ryan
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: Southern African Development Community , Economic and Monetary Union , Common Monetary Area (Organization) , Economic policy -- Africa, Southern , Monetary policy -- Africa, Southern , Monetary unions , Macroeconomics
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1023 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002758 , Southern African Development Community , Economic and Monetary Union , Common Monetary Area (Organization) , Economic policy -- Africa, Southern , Monetary policy -- Africa, Southern , Monetary unions , Macroeconomics
- Description: Given the growing effect that globalisation and integration has had upon economies and regions, the process of monetary union has become an increasingly topical issue in economic policy debates. This has been driven in part by the experience and successes of the European Monetary Union (EMU), which is widely perceived as beneficial to member countries. The Southern African Development Community (SADC) is an example of a group of countries that has realised that there are benefits that may arise from economic integration. This paper makes use of an interest-rate pass through model to investigate whether the pass-through of monetary policy transmission in ten SADC countries has become more similar between January 1990 and December 2007 using monthly interest rate data. This is done to determine the extent of macroeconomic convergence that prevails within SADC, and consequently establish whether the formation of a regional monetary union is feasible. The results of the empirical pass-through model were robust and show that there are certain countries that have a more efficient and similar monetary transmission process than others. In particular, the countries that form the Common Monetary Area (CMA) and the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) tend to show evidence of convergence in monetary policy transmission, especially since 2000. In addition, from analysis of the long-run pass-through, the results reveal that there is evidence that Malawi and Zambia have shown signs of convergence toward the countries that form the CMA and SACU, in terms of monetary policy transmission. The study concludes that a SADC wide monetary union is currently not feasible based on the evidence provided from the results of the pass-through analysis. Despite this, it can be tentatively suggested that the CMA may be expanded to include Botswana, Malawi and Zambia.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2009
Preservation or exploitation? : a study of the development of the mining rights legislation on the Witwatersrand goldfields from 1886 to 2008
- Authors: Stott, Joan
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: Ostrom, Elinor Chamber of Mines of South Africa Gold mines and mining -- South Africa -- Witwatersrand -- History Mineral industries -- Finance -- South Africa Mining law -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MEcon
- Identifier: vital:988 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002723
- Description: Elinor Ostrom (2005: 238) assumes that in understanding the make up and behaviour of institutional systems governing natural resources: “Resource users are explicitly thought of as rational egoists who plunder local resources so as to maximise their own short-term benefits. Government officials are implicitly depicted, on the other hand, as seeking, the more general public interest, having the relevant information at hand and the capability of designing optimal policies.” This thesis examines the validity of this assumption through an historical analysis of the deep-level gold mining industry of the Witwatersrand, South Africa. The main focus of the assessment is on the institutions of ownership – that is, the development of mining rights and title legislation between 1886 and 2008. The study looks at the legislations’ transformation and implementation from the perspective of the gold mining industry – made up of the mining finance houses and the Chamber of Mines of South Africa – and that of the state. The transformation of the mining industry’s institutional framework was both a choice by government as well as that of the firms in the mining industry. The theoretical framework is constructed from four areas of economic thought. These include: the neoclassical and Keynesian schools of macroeconomic thought; industrial organisation and its relevance to the relationship between firms and the market; institutional and new institutional economics; and finally property rights. The determinants of policy design and the impact of such design on firms and industry is examined. The development, implementation and use of the aforementioned legislation is examined from two perspectives, namely, that of preserver or exploiter. Throughout the history of this prominent South African industry, the motivation for action from the industry or government has oscillated between the two extremes of preserver or exploiter over the time period examined. The conclusion is drawn on an overall and broad focus of actions – with a strong focus on the most recent developments in mining legislation – post-1992.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2009
- Authors: Stott, Joan
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: Ostrom, Elinor Chamber of Mines of South Africa Gold mines and mining -- South Africa -- Witwatersrand -- History Mineral industries -- Finance -- South Africa Mining law -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MEcon
- Identifier: vital:988 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002723
- Description: Elinor Ostrom (2005: 238) assumes that in understanding the make up and behaviour of institutional systems governing natural resources: “Resource users are explicitly thought of as rational egoists who plunder local resources so as to maximise their own short-term benefits. Government officials are implicitly depicted, on the other hand, as seeking, the more general public interest, having the relevant information at hand and the capability of designing optimal policies.” This thesis examines the validity of this assumption through an historical analysis of the deep-level gold mining industry of the Witwatersrand, South Africa. The main focus of the assessment is on the institutions of ownership – that is, the development of mining rights and title legislation between 1886 and 2008. The study looks at the legislations’ transformation and implementation from the perspective of the gold mining industry – made up of the mining finance houses and the Chamber of Mines of South Africa – and that of the state. The transformation of the mining industry’s institutional framework was both a choice by government as well as that of the firms in the mining industry. The theoretical framework is constructed from four areas of economic thought. These include: the neoclassical and Keynesian schools of macroeconomic thought; industrial organisation and its relevance to the relationship between firms and the market; institutional and new institutional economics; and finally property rights. The determinants of policy design and the impact of such design on firms and industry is examined. The development, implementation and use of the aforementioned legislation is examined from two perspectives, namely, that of preserver or exploiter. Throughout the history of this prominent South African industry, the motivation for action from the industry or government has oscillated between the two extremes of preserver or exploiter over the time period examined. The conclusion is drawn on an overall and broad focus of actions – with a strong focus on the most recent developments in mining legislation – post-1992.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2009
The development of the stock market and its effect on economic growth: the case of SADC
- Authors: Elliott, Kevin Andrew
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: Stocks -- Africa, Southern , Stock exchanges -- Africa, Southern , Economic development -- Africa, Southern , Stocks -- Economic aspects -- Africa, Southern
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:967 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002701 , Stocks -- Africa, Southern , Stock exchanges -- Africa, Southern , Economic development -- Africa, Southern , Stocks -- Economic aspects -- Africa, Southern
- Description: Using a pooled panel data set from nine developing countries within the SADC region from 1992 to 2004, this paper empirically examines; firstly, the relationship between stock market development and long-term economic growth, and secondly, the macroeconomic determinants of stock market development, particularly market capitalisation as a percentage of GDP. The results suggest that there is a strong link between stock market development and economic growth, particularly through the liquidity provided by the market. The evidence obtained lends support to the view that a well-developed and functioning stock market can boost economic growth by enhancing faster capital accumulation and allowing for better resource allocation, particularly in developing countries. In terms of the macroeconomic determinants of stock market development, the results support those of Garcia and Liu (1999), in that we found the indicators of financial intermediary development, the value of shares traded as a percentage of GDP and the macroeconomic instability variable to be important determinants of stock market development.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2009
- Authors: Elliott, Kevin Andrew
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: Stocks -- Africa, Southern , Stock exchanges -- Africa, Southern , Economic development -- Africa, Southern , Stocks -- Economic aspects -- Africa, Southern
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:967 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002701 , Stocks -- Africa, Southern , Stock exchanges -- Africa, Southern , Economic development -- Africa, Southern , Stocks -- Economic aspects -- Africa, Southern
- Description: Using a pooled panel data set from nine developing countries within the SADC region from 1992 to 2004, this paper empirically examines; firstly, the relationship between stock market development and long-term economic growth, and secondly, the macroeconomic determinants of stock market development, particularly market capitalisation as a percentage of GDP. The results suggest that there is a strong link between stock market development and economic growth, particularly through the liquidity provided by the market. The evidence obtained lends support to the view that a well-developed and functioning stock market can boost economic growth by enhancing faster capital accumulation and allowing for better resource allocation, particularly in developing countries. In terms of the macroeconomic determinants of stock market development, the results support those of Garcia and Liu (1999), in that we found the indicators of financial intermediary development, the value of shares traded as a percentage of GDP and the macroeconomic instability variable to be important determinants of stock market development.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2009
The economic potential of small towns in the Eastern Cape Midlands
- Authors: Reynolds, Kian Andrew
- Date: 2009 , 2013-07-15
- Subjects: Small cities -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Economic geography -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Economic development -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Rural development -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Local government -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Agriculture -- Economic aspects -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MA
- Identifier: vital:1057 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1007492
- Description: Small town economic decline has been experienced in many countries across the globe and can be explained through Geographical Economics, particularly the New Economic Geography, which suggests that agglomeration occurs as a natural outcome of high transportation and transactional costs. Yet despite the economic rationale behind their decline it is not an economic inevitability and there is evidence of towns in the United States, New Zealand and Canada that have reversed their economic fortunes. [n South Africa approximately 5 million people live in the 500 small towns and many more live in their rural hinterlands where povelty levels are extremely high within a national context. Within this context the thesis examines the current economic status and potential growth prospects of small towns in the Eastern Cape Midlands in South Africa in order to identify critical growth dri vers within small town economies. Five small towns were selected for the study via means of a purposive sample and were subjected to two regional modelling techniques, namely Shift-Share Analysis and Economic Base Theory to determine their current economic trends and past growth patterns, while a Social Accounting Matrix was utilised to identify important sectoral linkages, potential avenues for growth and evident leakages within small town economies. The sampled towns experienced negative economic growth trends between 1996 and 200 I, the primary loss in employment being accounted for by regional economic changes as opposed to national or industrial trends. The decline was more severely felt in primary/industrial sectors of the economy; evidence was found that manufacturing activities declined in all of the centres, despite the industry growing nationally. The Social Accounting Matrix highlighted strong links between the agricultural and services sectors within the national economy. Thus, considering that agriculture was identified as the primary economic driver within the region and the services sector the largest employer in all of the towns it is evident that the economic potential of the towns is to a certain extent linked to the success of agriculture in their hinterlands. Seven growth drivers, namely size, local economic development, existing markets, existing industries, infrastructure, municipal leadership and local entrepreneurs and were linked via means of a scoring framework to the sampled towns' economic potential. Whilst the results of actually determining a towns economic potential are not definitive the study does provide useful insights about the impact and potential role played by these drivers. Linked to this scoring framework and to Cook's (1971) hierarchy of places in the Eastern Cape Midlands four categories of towns were identified in the commercial falming areas and recommendations were made about appropriate developmental interventions at a municipal level, such as the need to retain local entrepreneurs and to invest in social amenities. Considering the evident need for development in rural areas the study provides critical insights into how to prioritise development strategies within small rural towns in commercial farming areas. In addition it would enable municipalities to critically reflect on their municipal Local Economic Development strategies and the relevance within the context of small towns. , KMBT_363 , Adobe Acrobat 9.54 Paper Capture Plug-in
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2009
- Authors: Reynolds, Kian Andrew
- Date: 2009 , 2013-07-15
- Subjects: Small cities -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Economic geography -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Economic development -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Rural development -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Local government -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Agriculture -- Economic aspects -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MA
- Identifier: vital:1057 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1007492
- Description: Small town economic decline has been experienced in many countries across the globe and can be explained through Geographical Economics, particularly the New Economic Geography, which suggests that agglomeration occurs as a natural outcome of high transportation and transactional costs. Yet despite the economic rationale behind their decline it is not an economic inevitability and there is evidence of towns in the United States, New Zealand and Canada that have reversed their economic fortunes. [n South Africa approximately 5 million people live in the 500 small towns and many more live in their rural hinterlands where povelty levels are extremely high within a national context. Within this context the thesis examines the current economic status and potential growth prospects of small towns in the Eastern Cape Midlands in South Africa in order to identify critical growth dri vers within small town economies. Five small towns were selected for the study via means of a purposive sample and were subjected to two regional modelling techniques, namely Shift-Share Analysis and Economic Base Theory to determine their current economic trends and past growth patterns, while a Social Accounting Matrix was utilised to identify important sectoral linkages, potential avenues for growth and evident leakages within small town economies. The sampled towns experienced negative economic growth trends between 1996 and 200 I, the primary loss in employment being accounted for by regional economic changes as opposed to national or industrial trends. The decline was more severely felt in primary/industrial sectors of the economy; evidence was found that manufacturing activities declined in all of the centres, despite the industry growing nationally. The Social Accounting Matrix highlighted strong links between the agricultural and services sectors within the national economy. Thus, considering that agriculture was identified as the primary economic driver within the region and the services sector the largest employer in all of the towns it is evident that the economic potential of the towns is to a certain extent linked to the success of agriculture in their hinterlands. Seven growth drivers, namely size, local economic development, existing markets, existing industries, infrastructure, municipal leadership and local entrepreneurs and were linked via means of a scoring framework to the sampled towns' economic potential. Whilst the results of actually determining a towns economic potential are not definitive the study does provide useful insights about the impact and potential role played by these drivers. Linked to this scoring framework and to Cook's (1971) hierarchy of places in the Eastern Cape Midlands four categories of towns were identified in the commercial falming areas and recommendations were made about appropriate developmental interventions at a municipal level, such as the need to retain local entrepreneurs and to invest in social amenities. Considering the evident need for development in rural areas the study provides critical insights into how to prioritise development strategies within small rural towns in commercial farming areas. In addition it would enable municipalities to critically reflect on their municipal Local Economic Development strategies and the relevance within the context of small towns. , KMBT_363 , Adobe Acrobat 9.54 Paper Capture Plug-in
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2009
The impact of macroeconomic and financial factors on the performance of the housing property market in South Africa
- Authors: Kwangware, Debra
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: Microeconomics , Housing -- South Africa , Housing -- Prices -- South Africa , Real property -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1042 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1005641 , Microeconomics , Housing -- South Africa , Housing -- Prices -- South Africa , Real property -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Description: This study exammes the impact of macroeconomic and financial variables on the performance of the housing property market in South Africa using monthly data for the period January 1996 to June 2008. Orthogonalised and non-orthogonalised house price returns and real estate returns are utilised as proxies for the housing property market in separate models. Three main issues were empirically analysed in relation to the linkage between selected variables and the housing property market. The first aspect examined the relationship between selected macroeconomic and financial factors and property returns. Secondly, the study examined the influence that a unit shock to each variable has on property returns over a period of time. The third aspect focused on determining the proportion of property returns variation that results from changes in the macroeconomic and financial variables. VAR modelling was thus adopted to empirically analyse these three aspects. The results reveal that house price returns are influenced by most of the macroeconomic and financial variables used in this study. Specifically, the real effective exchange rate, interest rate spread and manufacturing production positively impact on house price returns while the domestic interest rate, the dividend yield and expected inflation have a negative effect. Furthermore, manufacturing production has a lagged effect on house price returns while the real effective exchange rate and domestic interest rate have a contemporaneous effect. Real estate returns are not influenced by most of the variables except for the domestic interest rate and dividend yield which have a negative effect.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2009
- Authors: Kwangware, Debra
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: Microeconomics , Housing -- South Africa , Housing -- Prices -- South Africa , Real property -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1042 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1005641 , Microeconomics , Housing -- South Africa , Housing -- Prices -- South Africa , Real property -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Description: This study exammes the impact of macroeconomic and financial variables on the performance of the housing property market in South Africa using monthly data for the period January 1996 to June 2008. Orthogonalised and non-orthogonalised house price returns and real estate returns are utilised as proxies for the housing property market in separate models. Three main issues were empirically analysed in relation to the linkage between selected variables and the housing property market. The first aspect examined the relationship between selected macroeconomic and financial factors and property returns. Secondly, the study examined the influence that a unit shock to each variable has on property returns over a period of time. The third aspect focused on determining the proportion of property returns variation that results from changes in the macroeconomic and financial variables. VAR modelling was thus adopted to empirically analyse these three aspects. The results reveal that house price returns are influenced by most of the macroeconomic and financial variables used in this study. Specifically, the real effective exchange rate, interest rate spread and manufacturing production positively impact on house price returns while the domestic interest rate, the dividend yield and expected inflation have a negative effect. Furthermore, manufacturing production has a lagged effect on house price returns while the real effective exchange rate and domestic interest rate have a contemporaneous effect. Real estate returns are not influenced by most of the variables except for the domestic interest rate and dividend yield which have a negative effect.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2009
The implementation of the new capital accord (BASEL II) : a comparative study of South Africa, Switzerland, Brazil and the United States
- Makwiramiti, Anthony Munyaradzi
- Authors: Makwiramiti, Anthony Munyaradzi
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: Basel II (2004) , Banks and banking, International , Banks and banking, International -- State supervision , Capital market -- Government policy , Bank capital , Banking law , Financial institutions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:983 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002717 , Basel II (2004) , Banks and banking, International , Banks and banking, International -- State supervision , Capital market -- Government policy , Bank capital , Banking law , Financial institutions
- Description: The international banking environment has become potentially riskier because of the recent developments in financial services and products which have changed the way banks do their day to day business. Imposing minimum capital adequacy regulations is one way of fostering stability in the global banking system. A number of countries have started to implement the new capital adequacy rules (Basel II) following the worldwide consensus among central bankers that bank‟s capital levels should be regulated to enhance global financial stability. In this study, through the comparative analysis of the general implementation issues it was established that emerging countries apply all Basel II rules uniformly across all the banking institutions that operate in their territories. Developed countries apply these rules only to large and internationally active banks and because of the diversity of their banking industries, they also apply domestically modified rules to the domestically based banks. For the successful implementation of Basel II, properly planning, devoting bank resources and making necessary legislative amendments are prerequisites for incorporating Basel II into the regulatory framework for any country. The study concludes that the current global financial turmoil continues to pose a threat to the effectiveness of the Basel II rules which are aimed at achieving global financial stability.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2009
- Authors: Makwiramiti, Anthony Munyaradzi
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: Basel II (2004) , Banks and banking, International , Banks and banking, International -- State supervision , Capital market -- Government policy , Bank capital , Banking law , Financial institutions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:983 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002717 , Basel II (2004) , Banks and banking, International , Banks and banking, International -- State supervision , Capital market -- Government policy , Bank capital , Banking law , Financial institutions
- Description: The international banking environment has become potentially riskier because of the recent developments in financial services and products which have changed the way banks do their day to day business. Imposing minimum capital adequacy regulations is one way of fostering stability in the global banking system. A number of countries have started to implement the new capital adequacy rules (Basel II) following the worldwide consensus among central bankers that bank‟s capital levels should be regulated to enhance global financial stability. In this study, through the comparative analysis of the general implementation issues it was established that emerging countries apply all Basel II rules uniformly across all the banking institutions that operate in their territories. Developed countries apply these rules only to large and internationally active banks and because of the diversity of their banking industries, they also apply domestically modified rules to the domestically based banks. For the successful implementation of Basel II, properly planning, devoting bank resources and making necessary legislative amendments are prerequisites for incorporating Basel II into the regulatory framework for any country. The study concludes that the current global financial turmoil continues to pose a threat to the effectiveness of the Basel II rules which are aimed at achieving global financial stability.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2009
An analysis of exchange rate pass-through to prices in South Africa
- Authors: Karoro, Tapiwa Daniel
- Date: 2008
- Subjects: Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Inflation (Finance) -- South Africa , Prices -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic policy
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:953 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002687 , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Inflation (Finance) -- South Africa , Prices -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic policy
- Description: The fact that South Africa has a floating exchange rate policy as well as an open trade policy leaves the country’s import, producer and consumer prices susceptible to the effects of exchange rate movements. Given the central role that inflation targeting occupies in South Africa’s monetary policy, it becomes necessary to determine the nature of influence of exchange rate changes on domestic prices. To this end, this thesis examines the magnitude and speed of exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to import, producer and consumer prices in South Africa. Furthermore, it explores whether the direction and size of changes in the exchange rate have different pass-through effects on import prices, that is, whether the exchange rate pass-through is symmetric or asymmetric. The paper uses monthly data covering the period January 1980 to December 2005. In investigating ERPT, two main stages are identified. The initial stage is the transmission of fluctuations in the exchange rate to import prices, while the second-stage entails the pass-through of changes in import prices to producer and consumer prices. The first stage is estimated using the Johansen (1991) and (1995) cointegration techniques and a vector error correction model (VECM). The second stage pass-through is determined by estimating impulse response and variance decomposition functions, as well as conducting block exogeneity Wald tests. The study follows Wickremasinghe and Silvapulle’s (2004) approach in estimating pass-through asymmetry with respect to appreciations and depreciations. In addition, the thesis adapts the analytical framework of Wickremasinghe and Silvapulle (2004) to investigate the pass-through of large and small changes in the exchange rate to import prices. The results suggest that ERPT in South Africa is incomplete but relatively high. Furthermore, ERPT is found to be higher in periods of rand depreciation than appreciation which supports the binding quantity constraint theory. There is also some evidence that pass-through is higher in periods of small changes than large changes in the exchange rate, which supports the menu cost theory when invoices are denominated in the exporters’ currency.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2008
- Authors: Karoro, Tapiwa Daniel
- Date: 2008
- Subjects: Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Inflation (Finance) -- South Africa , Prices -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic policy
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:953 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002687 , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Inflation (Finance) -- South Africa , Prices -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic policy
- Description: The fact that South Africa has a floating exchange rate policy as well as an open trade policy leaves the country’s import, producer and consumer prices susceptible to the effects of exchange rate movements. Given the central role that inflation targeting occupies in South Africa’s monetary policy, it becomes necessary to determine the nature of influence of exchange rate changes on domestic prices. To this end, this thesis examines the magnitude and speed of exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to import, producer and consumer prices in South Africa. Furthermore, it explores whether the direction and size of changes in the exchange rate have different pass-through effects on import prices, that is, whether the exchange rate pass-through is symmetric or asymmetric. The paper uses monthly data covering the period January 1980 to December 2005. In investigating ERPT, two main stages are identified. The initial stage is the transmission of fluctuations in the exchange rate to import prices, while the second-stage entails the pass-through of changes in import prices to producer and consumer prices. The first stage is estimated using the Johansen (1991) and (1995) cointegration techniques and a vector error correction model (VECM). The second stage pass-through is determined by estimating impulse response and variance decomposition functions, as well as conducting block exogeneity Wald tests. The study follows Wickremasinghe and Silvapulle’s (2004) approach in estimating pass-through asymmetry with respect to appreciations and depreciations. In addition, the thesis adapts the analytical framework of Wickremasinghe and Silvapulle (2004) to investigate the pass-through of large and small changes in the exchange rate to import prices. The results suggest that ERPT in South Africa is incomplete but relatively high. Furthermore, ERPT is found to be higher in periods of rand depreciation than appreciation which supports the binding quantity constraint theory. There is also some evidence that pass-through is higher in periods of small changes than large changes in the exchange rate, which supports the menu cost theory when invoices are denominated in the exporters’ currency.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2008
Interest rate risk management : a case study of GBS Mutual Bank
- Authors: Williamson, Gareth Alan
- Date: 2008
- Subjects: GBS Mutual Bank , Interest rates -- Case studies , Interest rate risk -- Case studies , Risk management -- Case studies , Financial risk -- Case studies , Banks and banking -- Case studies
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:986 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002720 , GBS Mutual Bank , Interest rates -- Case studies , Interest rate risk -- Case studies , Risk management -- Case studies , Financial risk -- Case studies , Banks and banking -- Case studies
- Description: Banks play a pivotal role in the economic growth and development of countries, primarily through the diversification of risk for both themselves and other economic agents. Interest rate risk is regarded as one of the most prominent financial risks faced by a bank. A large portion of private banks’ revenue stems from net interest income that is generated from the difference between various assets and liabilities that are held on the balance sheet. Fluctuations in the interest rate can alter a bank’s interest income and value, making interest rate risk management vital to its success. The asset and liability committee of a bank is the internal committee charged with the duty of managing the bank’s interest rate risk exposure through the use of various hedging strategies and instruments. This thesis uses a case study methodology to analyse GBS Mutual Bank interest rate risk management. Its specific business circumstances, balance sheet structure and the market conditions over a specified period are used to comment on the practicality of a variety of balance sheet positioning strategies and derivative hedging instruments. The thesis also provides recommendations for the bank’s asset and liability committee in terms of its functions and organisation. It is elucidated that the most practical balance sheet hedging strategies are a volume strategy and immunisation, while the most practical derivative hedging instruments are interest rate futures and interest rate collars. It is found that the bank has a well functioning asset and liability committee whose only encumbrance to its functionality is the inadequacy of the informational technology used to measure, control and manage its interest rate risk position. This thesis concludes by summarising the practicality of the various interest rate risk hedging alternatives available to the GBS Mutual Bank. Implementing a particular strategy or instrument depends, of course, on its asset and liability committee’s decision.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2008
- Authors: Williamson, Gareth Alan
- Date: 2008
- Subjects: GBS Mutual Bank , Interest rates -- Case studies , Interest rate risk -- Case studies , Risk management -- Case studies , Financial risk -- Case studies , Banks and banking -- Case studies
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:986 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002720 , GBS Mutual Bank , Interest rates -- Case studies , Interest rate risk -- Case studies , Risk management -- Case studies , Financial risk -- Case studies , Banks and banking -- Case studies
- Description: Banks play a pivotal role in the economic growth and development of countries, primarily through the diversification of risk for both themselves and other economic agents. Interest rate risk is regarded as one of the most prominent financial risks faced by a bank. A large portion of private banks’ revenue stems from net interest income that is generated from the difference between various assets and liabilities that are held on the balance sheet. Fluctuations in the interest rate can alter a bank’s interest income and value, making interest rate risk management vital to its success. The asset and liability committee of a bank is the internal committee charged with the duty of managing the bank’s interest rate risk exposure through the use of various hedging strategies and instruments. This thesis uses a case study methodology to analyse GBS Mutual Bank interest rate risk management. Its specific business circumstances, balance sheet structure and the market conditions over a specified period are used to comment on the practicality of a variety of balance sheet positioning strategies and derivative hedging instruments. The thesis also provides recommendations for the bank’s asset and liability committee in terms of its functions and organisation. It is elucidated that the most practical balance sheet hedging strategies are a volume strategy and immunisation, while the most practical derivative hedging instruments are interest rate futures and interest rate collars. It is found that the bank has a well functioning asset and liability committee whose only encumbrance to its functionality is the inadequacy of the informational technology used to measure, control and manage its interest rate risk position. This thesis concludes by summarising the practicality of the various interest rate risk hedging alternatives available to the GBS Mutual Bank. Implementing a particular strategy or instrument depends, of course, on its asset and liability committee’s decision.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2008
An analysis of bank risk management and its relevance for the non-bank corporate sector
- Authors: Dietrich, David Roland
- Date: 2007
- Subjects: Bank management , Risk management , Corporations -- Finance , Financial institutions , Banks and banking
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:949 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002683 , Bank management , Risk management , Corporations -- Finance , Financial institutions , Banks and banking
- Description: This thesis, entitled “An analysis of bank risk management and its relevance for the non-bank corporate sector”, investigates the extent to which financial risk management by the banking sector can be applied to the non-bank corporate sector. As banks’ risk management techniques are more sophisticated than those of the non-bank corporate sector we have endeavoured to ascertain the applicability of these established risk management methods to the non-bank corporate sector. The main objectives of this study were to analyse the banking sectors’ risks and management thereof, and compare them to the risks faced by the nonbank corporate sector. This analysis was then used to present a theoretical financial risk management model for the corporate sector. This analysis was conducted using qualitative research. The thesis engaged in an in-depth investigation of financial risk management through a documentary, literature and media analysis. It was elucidated that not all companies face the same financial risks and therefore each company requires its own unique financial risk management model. Furthermore, it was established that there are several risks that both banks and non-bank corporates are subjected to. However, the management of these risks is not necessarily the same for these two types of institutes. This thesis concludes by putting forward a financial risk management model which presents all the possible financial risks that non-bank corporates may face.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
- Authors: Dietrich, David Roland
- Date: 2007
- Subjects: Bank management , Risk management , Corporations -- Finance , Financial institutions , Banks and banking
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:949 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002683 , Bank management , Risk management , Corporations -- Finance , Financial institutions , Banks and banking
- Description: This thesis, entitled “An analysis of bank risk management and its relevance for the non-bank corporate sector”, investigates the extent to which financial risk management by the banking sector can be applied to the non-bank corporate sector. As banks’ risk management techniques are more sophisticated than those of the non-bank corporate sector we have endeavoured to ascertain the applicability of these established risk management methods to the non-bank corporate sector. The main objectives of this study were to analyse the banking sectors’ risks and management thereof, and compare them to the risks faced by the nonbank corporate sector. This analysis was then used to present a theoretical financial risk management model for the corporate sector. This analysis was conducted using qualitative research. The thesis engaged in an in-depth investigation of financial risk management through a documentary, literature and media analysis. It was elucidated that not all companies face the same financial risks and therefore each company requires its own unique financial risk management model. Furthermore, it was established that there are several risks that both banks and non-bank corporates are subjected to. However, the management of these risks is not necessarily the same for these two types of institutes. This thesis concludes by putting forward a financial risk management model which presents all the possible financial risks that non-bank corporates may face.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
An empirical investigation into the determinants of stock market behaviour in South Africa
- Authors: Olalere, Durodola Oludamola
- Date: 2007
- Subjects: Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Macroeconomics -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:998 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002733 , Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Macroeconomics -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Description: The argument with regards to whether macro-economic fundamentals determine stock market behaviour is very important because of the roles it plays in an economy. Such roles include: pooling and trading of risks, mobilization of savings, provision of liquidity and allocation of capital. However, the stock market will only perform such roles effectively if the macro-economic environment is conducive. This study examined the behaviour of the All Share Index (ALSI) and market capitalization on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange in response to changes in the domestic and international macro-economic fundamentals such as the consumer price index, rand-dollar real exchange rates, domestic GDP, yield on South African government bonds, yield on United States government bonds and United States GDP. The study used cointegration and error correction techniques proposed by Johansen and Juselius (1990) to test for long run relationship. Two separate models were estimated and results obtained show that the two proxies for the stock market behaviour (All share Index and market capitalization) are true endogenous variables, but react differently to economic fundamentals. The consumer price index has a significant negative impact on the JSE share price index while market capitalization is determined predominantly by the yield on South African government bonds. The exchange rate seems to have had little or no influence on the share price index, but becomes negative and significant in the case of market capitalization. The yield on United States government bonds also produced a strong influence on both the share price index and market capitalization. While it has a negative significant impact on share prices, it produced a positive significant impact on market capitalization. In order to ascertain whether the South African interest rate or the United States interest rate is more important in explaining the share price and market capitalization, each of the variables were estimated in the model separately, the result obtained reveals that the United States interest rate is more important than the domestic interest rate in explaining the share price and market capitalization on the JSE. This implies that investors need to observe the USA interest rate before investing in South African equities. A comparison of the responses of share price index and market capitalization to impulses from the macro-economic variables tested reveals that both proxies elicit a positive response from aggregate output. The share price index responds more significantly to impulses from output growth than the market capitalization, meaning that, as aggregate production increases, the share price index tends to respond positively and quickly. The exchange rate produced mixed result from the two proxies, while it produced a positive response from the market capitalization; an initial positive response was noted in the share price index that immediately turned negative. Another glaring contrast was identified in the response of both proxies to impulses from the United States interest rate. The share price index responded positively while the market capitalization produced a negative response. This finding reveals that the two proxies actually respond differently to macro-economic variables. The variance decomposition of both stock prices and market capitalization reveals that the yield on United States government bonds has a more significant absorption potential than the South African government bonds. However, the absorption process is slower in the case of the market capitalization. The exchange rate has a greater impact on the market capitalization than stock prices. The overall assessment shows that share prices respond faster than market capitalization to macro-economic fundamentals. The study also shows that the increased openness of the South African economy by way of relaxation of the exchange control on capital account transaction has allowed the USA market to play a crucial role in equity prices in South Africa. Three main policy recommendations results from the study. Firstly, if inflation is well monitored, then the local equity market is bound to perform strongly resulting in strong shares earning growth. Secondly, the exchange rate should be made to be less volatile so that long term investment plans across borders can be further enhanced. Thirdly, financial analyst and investors in South Africa need to analyse macro-economic developments in the United States before investing in equities in South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
- Authors: Olalere, Durodola Oludamola
- Date: 2007
- Subjects: Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Macroeconomics -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:998 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002733 , Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Macroeconomics -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Description: The argument with regards to whether macro-economic fundamentals determine stock market behaviour is very important because of the roles it plays in an economy. Such roles include: pooling and trading of risks, mobilization of savings, provision of liquidity and allocation of capital. However, the stock market will only perform such roles effectively if the macro-economic environment is conducive. This study examined the behaviour of the All Share Index (ALSI) and market capitalization on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange in response to changes in the domestic and international macro-economic fundamentals such as the consumer price index, rand-dollar real exchange rates, domestic GDP, yield on South African government bonds, yield on United States government bonds and United States GDP. The study used cointegration and error correction techniques proposed by Johansen and Juselius (1990) to test for long run relationship. Two separate models were estimated and results obtained show that the two proxies for the stock market behaviour (All share Index and market capitalization) are true endogenous variables, but react differently to economic fundamentals. The consumer price index has a significant negative impact on the JSE share price index while market capitalization is determined predominantly by the yield on South African government bonds. The exchange rate seems to have had little or no influence on the share price index, but becomes negative and significant in the case of market capitalization. The yield on United States government bonds also produced a strong influence on both the share price index and market capitalization. While it has a negative significant impact on share prices, it produced a positive significant impact on market capitalization. In order to ascertain whether the South African interest rate or the United States interest rate is more important in explaining the share price and market capitalization, each of the variables were estimated in the model separately, the result obtained reveals that the United States interest rate is more important than the domestic interest rate in explaining the share price and market capitalization on the JSE. This implies that investors need to observe the USA interest rate before investing in South African equities. A comparison of the responses of share price index and market capitalization to impulses from the macro-economic variables tested reveals that both proxies elicit a positive response from aggregate output. The share price index responds more significantly to impulses from output growth than the market capitalization, meaning that, as aggregate production increases, the share price index tends to respond positively and quickly. The exchange rate produced mixed result from the two proxies, while it produced a positive response from the market capitalization; an initial positive response was noted in the share price index that immediately turned negative. Another glaring contrast was identified in the response of both proxies to impulses from the United States interest rate. The share price index responded positively while the market capitalization produced a negative response. This finding reveals that the two proxies actually respond differently to macro-economic variables. The variance decomposition of both stock prices and market capitalization reveals that the yield on United States government bonds has a more significant absorption potential than the South African government bonds. However, the absorption process is slower in the case of the market capitalization. The exchange rate has a greater impact on the market capitalization than stock prices. The overall assessment shows that share prices respond faster than market capitalization to macro-economic fundamentals. The study also shows that the increased openness of the South African economy by way of relaxation of the exchange control on capital account transaction has allowed the USA market to play a crucial role in equity prices in South Africa. Three main policy recommendations results from the study. Firstly, if inflation is well monitored, then the local equity market is bound to perform strongly resulting in strong shares earning growth. Secondly, the exchange rate should be made to be less volatile so that long term investment plans across borders can be further enhanced. Thirdly, financial analyst and investors in South Africa need to analyse macro-economic developments in the United States before investing in equities in South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
Financial instability in South Africa : trends and interactions within the financial markets
- Authors: Shikwambana, Jamela
- Date: 2007 , 2013-08-06
- Subjects: Finance -- South Africa , Financial institutions -- South Africa , Economic stabilization -- South Africa , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Equilibrium (Economics)
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1043 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1005911 , Finance -- South Africa , Financial institutions -- South Africa , Economic stabilization -- South Africa , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Equilibrium (Economics)
- Description: This study seeks to investigate the trends and interactions of market volatility as a source of instability in the South African financial markets. Financial instability can be manifested in the form of banking and currency crisis, institutional failures and extreme asset price volatility. This study, however, focuses on a single aspect of financial instability - asset price volatility. Asset price volatility reflects changes in market expectations as investors react to such changes, and thus on its own is not necessarily a source of instability. However, volatility spillovers can propagate volatility shocks across the market, increasing the risk of widespread instability. Using a combination of graphical and trend analysis as well as more formal estimation techniques, the study examined volatility in the stock, money and foreign exchange markets. To obtain estimates of market volatility, the study experimented with various volatility models that include the GARCH, TARCH and EGARCH. An analysis of volatility interactions and the transmission of volatility shocks across the market is crucial to understanding financial instability. To examine volatility interaction and the transmission of volatility shocks, a VAR model was estimated. This framework allowed us to examine the propagation of shocks across the markets. Volatility in the financial markets was found to be highly persistent and in the case of exchange rates, volatility was also characterised by an increasing trend. Significant linkages between the financial markets were found. The links also extended to the volatility relationship as evidenced by significant volatility spillovers across the markets. While volatility spillovers from the money market were found in the stock market and the foreign exchange market, no volatility spillovers from these markets were found in the money market. Thus the money market was identified as the major source of volatility spillovers and shocks in the financial markets. These results highlighted the role of monetary policy in the financial system, specifically the need to make monetary policy stable and predictable to ensure that interest rate shocks are not an additional source of instability. , KMBT_363 , Adobe Acrobat 9.54 Paper Capture Plug-in
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
- Authors: Shikwambana, Jamela
- Date: 2007 , 2013-08-06
- Subjects: Finance -- South Africa , Financial institutions -- South Africa , Economic stabilization -- South Africa , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Equilibrium (Economics)
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1043 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1005911 , Finance -- South Africa , Financial institutions -- South Africa , Economic stabilization -- South Africa , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Equilibrium (Economics)
- Description: This study seeks to investigate the trends and interactions of market volatility as a source of instability in the South African financial markets. Financial instability can be manifested in the form of banking and currency crisis, institutional failures and extreme asset price volatility. This study, however, focuses on a single aspect of financial instability - asset price volatility. Asset price volatility reflects changes in market expectations as investors react to such changes, and thus on its own is not necessarily a source of instability. However, volatility spillovers can propagate volatility shocks across the market, increasing the risk of widespread instability. Using a combination of graphical and trend analysis as well as more formal estimation techniques, the study examined volatility in the stock, money and foreign exchange markets. To obtain estimates of market volatility, the study experimented with various volatility models that include the GARCH, TARCH and EGARCH. An analysis of volatility interactions and the transmission of volatility shocks across the market is crucial to understanding financial instability. To examine volatility interaction and the transmission of volatility shocks, a VAR model was estimated. This framework allowed us to examine the propagation of shocks across the markets. Volatility in the financial markets was found to be highly persistent and in the case of exchange rates, volatility was also characterised by an increasing trend. Significant linkages between the financial markets were found. The links also extended to the volatility relationship as evidenced by significant volatility spillovers across the markets. While volatility spillovers from the money market were found in the stock market and the foreign exchange market, no volatility spillovers from these markets were found in the money market. Thus the money market was identified as the major source of volatility spillovers and shocks in the financial markets. These results highlighted the role of monetary policy in the financial system, specifically the need to make monetary policy stable and predictable to ensure that interest rate shocks are not an additional source of instability. , KMBT_363 , Adobe Acrobat 9.54 Paper Capture Plug-in
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
The demand for broad money (M2) in Botswana
- Authors: Tsheole, Thapelo
- Date: 2007
- Subjects: Monetary policy -- Botswana , Demand for money -- Botswana , Botswana -- Economic conditions , Quantity theory of money
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:966 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002700 , Monetary policy -- Botswana , Demand for money -- Botswana , Botswana -- Economic conditions , Quantity theory of money
- Description: There has been extensive theoretical and empirical research on the subject of demand for money function. This particularly stems from the important role demand for money plays in macroeconomic analysis, especially in the design and implementation of monetary policy. The increase in studies, especially in developing countries, can also be attributed to a number of factors like: the impact of moving towards flexible exchange rate regimes, globalisation of financial markets, ongoing financial liberalisation, innovations in domestic financial products, the advancement in econometrics techniques and other country-specific events. This study estimates and examines the nature and stability of the demand for broad money (M2) in Botswana. This is particularly important in that the usefulness of a money demand function in the conduct of monetary policy depends crucially on its stability. The stability of the money demand function is crucial in that a stable money demand function would mean that the quantity of money is predictably related to a set of key economic variables linking money and the real economic sector. Therefore, this will help central banks to select appropriate monetary policy actions. Based on the findings, the study also proposes policy interventions. The vast majority of the literature on demand for money has underscored the fact that variable selection and representation, and the framework chosen are the two major issues relevant to modelling and estimation of the demand for money function. In modelling and estimating the demand for money function in Botswana, this study surveys a stream of theoretical and empirical literature on money demand in developed and developing countries, including countries that have similar financial sector similar to Botswana. Due consideration is also given to the macroeconomic and financial sector development in Botswana to help in the identification of the variables that are included in the demand for money equation. Most importantly, this helped in getting meaningful results that are free from theoretical and estimation problems. In particular, this study applied the multivariate cointegration approach as proposed by Johansen (1988) and Johansen and Juselius (1990) to estimate the relationship between broad money (M2), real income, interest rate, South African treasury bill rate, inflation rate and US dollar/pula bilateral exchange rate. The study obtains one unique long run relationship between money and the scale and opportunity cost variables. The coefficients of the long run relationship are then modelled along the general to specific approach as proposed by Campos, Ericsson and Hendry (2005). In this type of approach the general model is reduced by sequential elimination of statistically insignificant variables and checking the validity of the reductions at every stage to ensure congruence of the finally selected parsimonious model. In accordance with the economic quantity theory of money, the long run income elasticity obtained is 0.8021, which is close to the value one (unitary) suggested by economic theory. The coefficients of real income, exchange and inflation rate have the expected positive signs and were significant in the long run. Therefore, the long run demand for money (M2) in Botswana was found to be positively affected by real income, inflation rate and exchange rate. The lack of statistical significant of the own rate of money (88 day commercial bank deposit rate) and the foreign opportunity cost variable (South African Treasury bill rate) is attributed to multi-collinearity problems between these two interest rates. This could be caused by the fact that short term rates in Botswana are very responsive to movements in the money markets rates in South Africa. The short run dynamics of the demand for money function shows the slow speed of adjustment to equilibrium of about 2.9 percent in the first quarter and this is reflective of the lack of sufficient availability of banking services and the low returns on financial assets which could allow economic agents to re-establish equilibrium levels of money holdings faster. The final parsimonious model obtained clearly reflects a well specified stable demand for money function. Therefore, based on the findings we can be precise in stating that targeting a monetary aggregate can be a viable policy for the monetary authorities in Botswana.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
- Authors: Tsheole, Thapelo
- Date: 2007
- Subjects: Monetary policy -- Botswana , Demand for money -- Botswana , Botswana -- Economic conditions , Quantity theory of money
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:966 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002700 , Monetary policy -- Botswana , Demand for money -- Botswana , Botswana -- Economic conditions , Quantity theory of money
- Description: There has been extensive theoretical and empirical research on the subject of demand for money function. This particularly stems from the important role demand for money plays in macroeconomic analysis, especially in the design and implementation of monetary policy. The increase in studies, especially in developing countries, can also be attributed to a number of factors like: the impact of moving towards flexible exchange rate regimes, globalisation of financial markets, ongoing financial liberalisation, innovations in domestic financial products, the advancement in econometrics techniques and other country-specific events. This study estimates and examines the nature and stability of the demand for broad money (M2) in Botswana. This is particularly important in that the usefulness of a money demand function in the conduct of monetary policy depends crucially on its stability. The stability of the money demand function is crucial in that a stable money demand function would mean that the quantity of money is predictably related to a set of key economic variables linking money and the real economic sector. Therefore, this will help central banks to select appropriate monetary policy actions. Based on the findings, the study also proposes policy interventions. The vast majority of the literature on demand for money has underscored the fact that variable selection and representation, and the framework chosen are the two major issues relevant to modelling and estimation of the demand for money function. In modelling and estimating the demand for money function in Botswana, this study surveys a stream of theoretical and empirical literature on money demand in developed and developing countries, including countries that have similar financial sector similar to Botswana. Due consideration is also given to the macroeconomic and financial sector development in Botswana to help in the identification of the variables that are included in the demand for money equation. Most importantly, this helped in getting meaningful results that are free from theoretical and estimation problems. In particular, this study applied the multivariate cointegration approach as proposed by Johansen (1988) and Johansen and Juselius (1990) to estimate the relationship between broad money (M2), real income, interest rate, South African treasury bill rate, inflation rate and US dollar/pula bilateral exchange rate. The study obtains one unique long run relationship between money and the scale and opportunity cost variables. The coefficients of the long run relationship are then modelled along the general to specific approach as proposed by Campos, Ericsson and Hendry (2005). In this type of approach the general model is reduced by sequential elimination of statistically insignificant variables and checking the validity of the reductions at every stage to ensure congruence of the finally selected parsimonious model. In accordance with the economic quantity theory of money, the long run income elasticity obtained is 0.8021, which is close to the value one (unitary) suggested by economic theory. The coefficients of real income, exchange and inflation rate have the expected positive signs and were significant in the long run. Therefore, the long run demand for money (M2) in Botswana was found to be positively affected by real income, inflation rate and exchange rate. The lack of statistical significant of the own rate of money (88 day commercial bank deposit rate) and the foreign opportunity cost variable (South African Treasury bill rate) is attributed to multi-collinearity problems between these two interest rates. This could be caused by the fact that short term rates in Botswana are very responsive to movements in the money markets rates in South Africa. The short run dynamics of the demand for money function shows the slow speed of adjustment to equilibrium of about 2.9 percent in the first quarter and this is reflective of the lack of sufficient availability of banking services and the low returns on financial assets which could allow economic agents to re-establish equilibrium levels of money holdings faster. The final parsimonious model obtained clearly reflects a well specified stable demand for money function. Therefore, based on the findings we can be precise in stating that targeting a monetary aggregate can be a viable policy for the monetary authorities in Botswana.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
An evaluation of the Nelson Mandela Metropole as a location to attract investment
- Authors: Nonxuba, Philile Zipho
- Date: 2006
- Subjects: Nelson Mandela Metropolitan Municipality (Eastern Cape, South Africa) , Nelson Mandela Metropolitan Municipality (Eastern Cape, South Africa) -- Economic conditions , Economic development -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Manufacturing industries -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Business enterprises -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Investments -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:973 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002707 , Nelson Mandela Metropolitan Municipality (Eastern Cape, South Africa) , Nelson Mandela Metropolitan Municipality (Eastern Cape, South Africa) -- Economic conditions , Economic development -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Manufacturing industries -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Business enterprises -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Investments -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape
- Description: The Nelson Mandela Metropole is the largest contributor to the Eastern Cape Province’s economy and its share of the production of the Eastern Cape is about 41, 3 % per annum. This requires that the competitiveness of the Metropole be improved in order to enable it to meet the challenges of the Province. The objective of the GEAR policy strategy places a focus on the leading coastal industrial locations of South Africa. Furthermore, the national government has shifted the responsibility of service delivery to local governments in an effort to reinforce the integrated development planning process in municipalities. To meet those challenges, the Metropole has focused its attention on improving local resources. To enhance the performance of the manufacturing industry of the Metropole, it is necessary to ensure that the Metropole has locational attributes to attract new investment. Such attributes include creation of closely located industries. This will help the firms to engage in competition as well as engage in co-operative activities among themselves. The study employs a variety of theories to highlight the need to enhance productivity of industries in order to attract new investment. These theories include the new (endogenous) growth theory that argues that productivity growth is determined by introduction of new technologies. Such technologies accrue because ideas that contribute to their development are nonrival, and thus their creation has a fixed cost and zero marginal cost. The property of fixed cost in the creation of ideas results in the emergence of increasing returns to scale. The Porter’s Diamond framework is used in the study to take the issue of productivity growth further. Its thrust is that in particular nations some industries experience high productivity growth rates. It further argues that the locational attributes are responsible for these industries in registering high productivity growth levels. These attributes include the creation of advanced resources such as a skilled labour force. The data obtained from the survey of the research on the manufacturing industries forms part of this study. The findings of the survey reveal that although the manufacturing sector of the South African region has registered some significant success, there is still some room for improving its competitiveness. It revealed that development of the local markets through competition and cooperation among the industries would help to render these industries internationally competitive. This study concludes with some recommendations. These recommendations place emphasis on improvement of infrastructure, quality of labour force, and development of the region’s market. In order to carry out the recommendations effectively, government policy has to be repositioned so as to enhance its visibility among the stakeholders in the economy. Of importance is to ensure the promotion of policy that supports geographically concentrated businesses.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2006
- Authors: Nonxuba, Philile Zipho
- Date: 2006
- Subjects: Nelson Mandela Metropolitan Municipality (Eastern Cape, South Africa) , Nelson Mandela Metropolitan Municipality (Eastern Cape, South Africa) -- Economic conditions , Economic development -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Manufacturing industries -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Business enterprises -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Investments -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:973 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002707 , Nelson Mandela Metropolitan Municipality (Eastern Cape, South Africa) , Nelson Mandela Metropolitan Municipality (Eastern Cape, South Africa) -- Economic conditions , Economic development -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Manufacturing industries -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Business enterprises -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Investments -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape
- Description: The Nelson Mandela Metropole is the largest contributor to the Eastern Cape Province’s economy and its share of the production of the Eastern Cape is about 41, 3 % per annum. This requires that the competitiveness of the Metropole be improved in order to enable it to meet the challenges of the Province. The objective of the GEAR policy strategy places a focus on the leading coastal industrial locations of South Africa. Furthermore, the national government has shifted the responsibility of service delivery to local governments in an effort to reinforce the integrated development planning process in municipalities. To meet those challenges, the Metropole has focused its attention on improving local resources. To enhance the performance of the manufacturing industry of the Metropole, it is necessary to ensure that the Metropole has locational attributes to attract new investment. Such attributes include creation of closely located industries. This will help the firms to engage in competition as well as engage in co-operative activities among themselves. The study employs a variety of theories to highlight the need to enhance productivity of industries in order to attract new investment. These theories include the new (endogenous) growth theory that argues that productivity growth is determined by introduction of new technologies. Such technologies accrue because ideas that contribute to their development are nonrival, and thus their creation has a fixed cost and zero marginal cost. The property of fixed cost in the creation of ideas results in the emergence of increasing returns to scale. The Porter’s Diamond framework is used in the study to take the issue of productivity growth further. Its thrust is that in particular nations some industries experience high productivity growth rates. It further argues that the locational attributes are responsible for these industries in registering high productivity growth levels. These attributes include the creation of advanced resources such as a skilled labour force. The data obtained from the survey of the research on the manufacturing industries forms part of this study. The findings of the survey reveal that although the manufacturing sector of the South African region has registered some significant success, there is still some room for improving its competitiveness. It revealed that development of the local markets through competition and cooperation among the industries would help to render these industries internationally competitive. This study concludes with some recommendations. These recommendations place emphasis on improvement of infrastructure, quality of labour force, and development of the region’s market. In order to carry out the recommendations effectively, government policy has to be repositioned so as to enhance its visibility among the stakeholders in the economy. Of importance is to ensure the promotion of policy that supports geographically concentrated businesses.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2006
An investigation into the validity of life tables used for the calculation of personal injury damages
- Authors: Forshaw, Timothy James
- Date: 2006
- Subjects: Torts -- South Africa , Damages -- South Africa , Damages -- South Africa -- Accounting , Mortality -- Tables , Personal injuries -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1077 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1008371 , Torts -- South Africa , Damages -- South Africa , Damages -- South Africa -- Accounting , Mortality -- Tables , Personal injuries -- South Africa
- Description: Currently in South Africa when an individual is injured due to the acts of another they may claim damages for the losses which they may incur. These can be claimed from a variety of institutions, such as the Road Accident Fund, Workmen's compensation or an individual's private insurance. In all the afore-mentioned cases the calculation of damages are along the same lines, whereby the damages are quantified first, and thereafter reduced to reflect future possibilities that may occur. Traditionally future losses are reduced to reflect the possibility that the claimant may die at an age prior to the loss being incurred. To account for this risk awards for future losses are reduced using standard South African mortality tables. The set of tables currently being used were calculated from the 1985 South African census, and as such encapsulate the mortality of the population at that period. When the tables were calculated no reliable statistics were available for the Black population the result is that the tables currently being used do not contain a sample of the majority of the population. The thesis first examines, in detail, the calculation methods used to arrive at the value for damages to be awarded using the current set of life tables. Thereafter an analysis is conducted looking at differences between racial groups in the country and geographic locations, in order to uncover the mortality differences between groups to confirm or disprove the proposition that the exclusion of the Black population results in lower levels of mortality being reflected in the South African 1984-1986 life tables. This is accompanied by a review of mortality trenps in South African since 1986. Following from the findings of the expected increase in mortality since 1986, alternative life tables shall be used to show what impact these would have on the calculation of damages. Due to the fact that none of the alternatives return satisfactory results, structured settlements shall be reviewed to illustrate how the shortcomings of the lump sum approach can be circumvented, and altogether avoid the problems of out dated life tables being used as a basis for damage calculations. , KMBT_363 , Adobe Acrobat 9.54 Paper Capture Plug-in
- Full Text:
- Authors: Forshaw, Timothy James
- Date: 2006
- Subjects: Torts -- South Africa , Damages -- South Africa , Damages -- South Africa -- Accounting , Mortality -- Tables , Personal injuries -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1077 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1008371 , Torts -- South Africa , Damages -- South Africa , Damages -- South Africa -- Accounting , Mortality -- Tables , Personal injuries -- South Africa
- Description: Currently in South Africa when an individual is injured due to the acts of another they may claim damages for the losses which they may incur. These can be claimed from a variety of institutions, such as the Road Accident Fund, Workmen's compensation or an individual's private insurance. In all the afore-mentioned cases the calculation of damages are along the same lines, whereby the damages are quantified first, and thereafter reduced to reflect future possibilities that may occur. Traditionally future losses are reduced to reflect the possibility that the claimant may die at an age prior to the loss being incurred. To account for this risk awards for future losses are reduced using standard South African mortality tables. The set of tables currently being used were calculated from the 1985 South African census, and as such encapsulate the mortality of the population at that period. When the tables were calculated no reliable statistics were available for the Black population the result is that the tables currently being used do not contain a sample of the majority of the population. The thesis first examines, in detail, the calculation methods used to arrive at the value for damages to be awarded using the current set of life tables. Thereafter an analysis is conducted looking at differences between racial groups in the country and geographic locations, in order to uncover the mortality differences between groups to confirm or disprove the proposition that the exclusion of the Black population results in lower levels of mortality being reflected in the South African 1984-1986 life tables. This is accompanied by a review of mortality trenps in South African since 1986. Following from the findings of the expected increase in mortality since 1986, alternative life tables shall be used to show what impact these would have on the calculation of damages. Due to the fact that none of the alternatives return satisfactory results, structured settlements shall be reviewed to illustrate how the shortcomings of the lump sum approach can be circumvented, and altogether avoid the problems of out dated life tables being used as a basis for damage calculations. , KMBT_363 , Adobe Acrobat 9.54 Paper Capture Plug-in
- Full Text:
Does primary resource-based industrialisation offer an escape from underdevelopment?
- Authors: Ali, Fatimah
- Date: 2006
- Subjects: Comparative advantage (International trade) , Exports -- Africa, West , Exports -- Mauritius , Exports -- South Africa , Foreign trade promotion -- Mauritius , International trade , Primary commodities -- Africa , Human capital -- Economic aspects -- Africa , Natural resources -- Africa , Africa -- Commerce
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1018 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002753 , Comparative advantage (International trade) , Exports -- Africa, West , Exports -- Mauritius , Exports -- South Africa , Foreign trade promotion -- Mauritius , International trade , Primary commodities -- Africa , Human capital -- Economic aspects -- Africa , Natural resources -- Africa , Africa -- Commerce
- Description: It is commonly believed about sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) that the region has a comparative advantage in primary resources as reflected by its high share of primary exports to total exports. In acknowledging the region's comparative advantage, the study tries to put the determinants from the Wood and Mayer (1998, (999) (W-M) Heckscher-Ohlin based model in the context of two relatively diversified countries (South Africa and Mauritius) and two commodity-export-dependent countries of sub-Saharan Africa (Nigeria and Cô̌̌te d'Ivoire). The study finds that the skill and land resource measures used in the W -M (1998, 1999) thesis do not explain why Nigeria, having a similar level of skill per worker ratio to South Africa, has not diversified. Further, Mauritius having relatively the highest skill per land ratio specialises in low-skill textiles and clothing, while South Africa specialises in the more human capital-intensive "other manufactures" group. The other measure, a low land per worker ratio that explains Mauritius' relatively higher share of manufacturing exports, also fails to apply to Nigeria. The thesis thus concludes that the W-M land and skill measures could only be rough proxies in determining comparative advantage in manufacturing exports. However, employing the Dutch disease hypothesis recognises the potential of land abundance as a natural resource, namely minerals in South Africa, oil in Nigeria, and cocoa in Cǒ̌te d'Ivoire. The Dutch disease is a dynamic process of structural economic and political development that will permit an understanding of why natural resource abundant countries do not have a comparative advantage in manufacturing, at least in the short to medium term. The study therefore investigates commodity dependence and the Dutch disease effects to examine whether primary resource- based industrialisation offers an escape from underdevelopment. It establishes that South Africa, a mineral resource rich country, diversified based on a broad mineral-energy-complex (MEC) reinforcing the notion that land abundant countries will first invest in capital- intensive primary resource processing. However, the thesis concludes that in Nigeria and Cǒ̌te d'Ivoire where external shocks are more predominant probably because of single commodity export reliance, the manufacturing sector lags behind more due to resource and spending effects that a natural resource boom generates in these economies.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2006
- Authors: Ali, Fatimah
- Date: 2006
- Subjects: Comparative advantage (International trade) , Exports -- Africa, West , Exports -- Mauritius , Exports -- South Africa , Foreign trade promotion -- Mauritius , International trade , Primary commodities -- Africa , Human capital -- Economic aspects -- Africa , Natural resources -- Africa , Africa -- Commerce
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1018 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002753 , Comparative advantage (International trade) , Exports -- Africa, West , Exports -- Mauritius , Exports -- South Africa , Foreign trade promotion -- Mauritius , International trade , Primary commodities -- Africa , Human capital -- Economic aspects -- Africa , Natural resources -- Africa , Africa -- Commerce
- Description: It is commonly believed about sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) that the region has a comparative advantage in primary resources as reflected by its high share of primary exports to total exports. In acknowledging the region's comparative advantage, the study tries to put the determinants from the Wood and Mayer (1998, (999) (W-M) Heckscher-Ohlin based model in the context of two relatively diversified countries (South Africa and Mauritius) and two commodity-export-dependent countries of sub-Saharan Africa (Nigeria and Cô̌̌te d'Ivoire). The study finds that the skill and land resource measures used in the W -M (1998, 1999) thesis do not explain why Nigeria, having a similar level of skill per worker ratio to South Africa, has not diversified. Further, Mauritius having relatively the highest skill per land ratio specialises in low-skill textiles and clothing, while South Africa specialises in the more human capital-intensive "other manufactures" group. The other measure, a low land per worker ratio that explains Mauritius' relatively higher share of manufacturing exports, also fails to apply to Nigeria. The thesis thus concludes that the W-M land and skill measures could only be rough proxies in determining comparative advantage in manufacturing exports. However, employing the Dutch disease hypothesis recognises the potential of land abundance as a natural resource, namely minerals in South Africa, oil in Nigeria, and cocoa in Cǒ̌te d'Ivoire. The Dutch disease is a dynamic process of structural economic and political development that will permit an understanding of why natural resource abundant countries do not have a comparative advantage in manufacturing, at least in the short to medium term. The study therefore investigates commodity dependence and the Dutch disease effects to examine whether primary resource- based industrialisation offers an escape from underdevelopment. It establishes that South Africa, a mineral resource rich country, diversified based on a broad mineral-energy-complex (MEC) reinforcing the notion that land abundant countries will first invest in capital- intensive primary resource processing. However, the thesis concludes that in Nigeria and Cǒ̌te d'Ivoire where external shocks are more predominant probably because of single commodity export reliance, the manufacturing sector lags behind more due to resource and spending effects that a natural resource boom generates in these economies.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2006
Financial reforms and interest rate spreads in the commercial banking sector in Kenya
- Authors: Munene, Daniel
- Date: 2006
- Subjects: Finance -- Kenya , Banks and banking -- Kenya , Economics -- Kenya , Interest rates -- Kenya , Economic development -- Kenya
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1070 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1007711 , Finance -- Kenya , Banks and banking -- Kenya , Economics -- Kenya , Interest rates -- Kenya , Economic development -- Kenya
- Description: Financial reforms were a major component of structural adjustment programs deemed necessary for developing countries in the mid 1980s. These were not only meant to improve the sector, but would ultimately enhance economic growth and help in poverty alleviation. At the top of these reforms was financial liberalisation. Kenya, like many other sub-Saharan African countries, undertook financial liberalisation in 1991, one of the measures was decontrolling interest rates. With market driven interest rates in place it was assumed that there would be increased efficiency in bank lending, as well as growth in credit availability as deposits increased. A key indicator of this improved intermediation process would be a narrowing interest rates spread, that is, the margin between the deposit and lending rate. Paradoxically, however, the expected benefits of these reforms did not accrue to Kenya's banking sector. This study focuses on financial reforms and the spread of interest rates in Kenya's banking sector. Using a trend analysis, spanning the period before and after liberalisation, interest rates spread are shown to have escalated dramatically upwards after liberalisation. An analysis of three macroeconomic variables, namely, the exchange rate, inflation rate and economic growth offer little, or inconclusive evidence, that they were the main causes of the wide interest rate spread. In fact, the spread is closely linked to institutional/structural factors such as non-competitiveness in the banking sector, imprudent lending practices and poor and/or inadequate banking supervision. Policies for improving the institutional infrastructure and thus moderating the spreads are highlighted.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2006
- Authors: Munene, Daniel
- Date: 2006
- Subjects: Finance -- Kenya , Banks and banking -- Kenya , Economics -- Kenya , Interest rates -- Kenya , Economic development -- Kenya
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1070 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1007711 , Finance -- Kenya , Banks and banking -- Kenya , Economics -- Kenya , Interest rates -- Kenya , Economic development -- Kenya
- Description: Financial reforms were a major component of structural adjustment programs deemed necessary for developing countries in the mid 1980s. These were not only meant to improve the sector, but would ultimately enhance economic growth and help in poverty alleviation. At the top of these reforms was financial liberalisation. Kenya, like many other sub-Saharan African countries, undertook financial liberalisation in 1991, one of the measures was decontrolling interest rates. With market driven interest rates in place it was assumed that there would be increased efficiency in bank lending, as well as growth in credit availability as deposits increased. A key indicator of this improved intermediation process would be a narrowing interest rates spread, that is, the margin between the deposit and lending rate. Paradoxically, however, the expected benefits of these reforms did not accrue to Kenya's banking sector. This study focuses on financial reforms and the spread of interest rates in Kenya's banking sector. Using a trend analysis, spanning the period before and after liberalisation, interest rates spread are shown to have escalated dramatically upwards after liberalisation. An analysis of three macroeconomic variables, namely, the exchange rate, inflation rate and economic growth offer little, or inconclusive evidence, that they were the main causes of the wide interest rate spread. In fact, the spread is closely linked to institutional/structural factors such as non-competitiveness in the banking sector, imprudent lending practices and poor and/or inadequate banking supervision. Policies for improving the institutional infrastructure and thus moderating the spreads are highlighted.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2006
The behaviour and fundamental determinants of the real exchange rate in South Africa
- Authors: Takaendesa, Peter
- Date: 2006
- Subjects: Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , Terms of trade -- South Africa , Finance -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:960 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002694 , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , Terms of trade -- South Africa , Finance -- South Africa
- Description: Real exchange rates have important effects on production, employment and trade, so it is crucial to understand the factors responsible for their variations. This study analyses the main determinants of the real exchange rate and the dynamic adjustment of the real exchange rate following shocks to those determinants, using quarterly South African data covering the period 1975 to 2005. It begins with a review of literature on the determinants of the real exchange rate and provides an updated background on the exchange rate system in South Africa. An empirical model linking the real exchange rate to its theoretical determinants is then specified. In contrast to previous analyses, this study augments the cointegration and vector autoregression (VAR) analysis with impulse response and variance decomposition analyses to provide robust long run effects and short run dynamic effects on the real exchange rate. The variables that have been found to have a long run relationship with the real exchange rate include the terms of trade, real interest rate differential, domestic credit, openness and technological progress. The estimate of the speed of adjustment coefficient found in this study indicates that about a third of the variation in the real exchange rate from its equilibrium level is corrected within a quarter. The impulse response functions broadly corroborate the theoretical predictions, but only the terms of trade, domestic credit and openness have a significant impact on the real exchange rate in the short run. However, only shocks to the terms of trade and domestic credit have persistent effects on the real exchange rate. Results from the variance decompositions are largely similar to those from the impulse response analysis. The terms of trade, domestic credit and openness are the only variables found to significantly explain the variation in the real exchange rate. The most interesting result that emerged from this analysis and is supported by previous research is that among other determinants, the terms of trade explain the largest proportion of the variation in the real exchange. On balance, the evidence therefore suggests that real exchange rate fluctuations are predominantly equilibrium responses to real and monetary shocks rather than fiscal policy shocks.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2006
- Authors: Takaendesa, Peter
- Date: 2006
- Subjects: Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , Terms of trade -- South Africa , Finance -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:960 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002694 , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , Terms of trade -- South Africa , Finance -- South Africa
- Description: Real exchange rates have important effects on production, employment and trade, so it is crucial to understand the factors responsible for their variations. This study analyses the main determinants of the real exchange rate and the dynamic adjustment of the real exchange rate following shocks to those determinants, using quarterly South African data covering the period 1975 to 2005. It begins with a review of literature on the determinants of the real exchange rate and provides an updated background on the exchange rate system in South Africa. An empirical model linking the real exchange rate to its theoretical determinants is then specified. In contrast to previous analyses, this study augments the cointegration and vector autoregression (VAR) analysis with impulse response and variance decomposition analyses to provide robust long run effects and short run dynamic effects on the real exchange rate. The variables that have been found to have a long run relationship with the real exchange rate include the terms of trade, real interest rate differential, domestic credit, openness and technological progress. The estimate of the speed of adjustment coefficient found in this study indicates that about a third of the variation in the real exchange rate from its equilibrium level is corrected within a quarter. The impulse response functions broadly corroborate the theoretical predictions, but only the terms of trade, domestic credit and openness have a significant impact on the real exchange rate in the short run. However, only shocks to the terms of trade and domestic credit have persistent effects on the real exchange rate. Results from the variance decompositions are largely similar to those from the impulse response analysis. The terms of trade, domestic credit and openness are the only variables found to significantly explain the variation in the real exchange rate. The most interesting result that emerged from this analysis and is supported by previous research is that among other determinants, the terms of trade explain the largest proportion of the variation in the real exchange. On balance, the evidence therefore suggests that real exchange rate fluctuations are predominantly equilibrium responses to real and monetary shocks rather than fiscal policy shocks.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2006
The economic valuation of cultural events in developing countries: combining market and non-market valuation techniques at the South African National Arts Festival
- Authors: Snowball, Jeanette Dalziel
- Date: 2006
- Subjects: Standard Bank National Arts Festival -- Economic aspects , Performing arts festivals -- Economic aspects -- South Africa -- Grahamstown , Arts -- South Africa -- Economic aspects , Finance -- South Africa , Arts -- South Africa -- Finance , Arts -- South Africa -- Political aspects , Finance, Public -- South Africa , South Africa -- Politics and government -- 1994-
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: vital:969 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002703 , Standard Bank National Arts Festival -- Economic aspects , Performing arts festivals -- Economic aspects -- South Africa -- Grahamstown , Arts -- South Africa -- Economic aspects , Finance -- South Africa , Arts -- South Africa -- Finance , Arts -- South Africa -- Political aspects , Finance, Public -- South Africa , South Africa -- Politics and government -- 1994-
- Description: The arts in many countries, but particularly in developing ones, are coming under increasing financial pressure and finding it difficult to justify the increases in government funding needed to maintain and grow the cultural sector. The trend in cultural economics, as well as in other areas, appears to be towards including qualitative valuations, as well as the more traditional quantitative ones. This thesis argues that the value of cultural events should include long term historical qualitative analysis, financial or economic impact and a valuation of the positive externalities provided by cultural events and that any one of these should only be regarded as a partial analysis. Four methods of valuing the arts using the South African National Arts Festival (NAF) as an example are demonstrated. Firstly, a qualitative historical analysis of the role of the NAF in South Africa’s transformation process from Apartheid to the democratic New South Africa is examined, using theories of cultural capital as a theoretical basis. It is argued that the value of cultural events needs to take into account long-term influences especially in countries undergoing political and social transformation. The second valuation method applied is the traditional economic impact study. Four economic impact studies conducted on the NAF are discussed and methodologies compared. It is concluded that, despite the skepticism of many cultural economists, the method can provide a useful partial valuation and may also be used for effective lobbying for government support of the arts. Chapter four discusses willingness to pay studies conducted at the NAF in 2000 and 2003 (as well as a pilot study conducted at the Klein Karoo Nationale Kunstefees). It is found that lower income and education groups do benefit from the positive externalities provided by the Festival and that this is reflected in their willingness to pay to support it. It is also argued that such contingent valuation studies can provide a reasonably reliable valuation of Festival externalities, but that they may be partly capturing current or future expected financial gains as well. Finally, the relatively new choice experiment methodology (also called conjoint analysis) is demonstrated on visitors to the NAF. The great advantage of this method in valuing cultural events is that it provides part-worths of various Festival attributes for different demographic groups. This enables organizes to structure the programme in such a way as to attract previously excluded groups and to conduct a cost-benefit analysis for each part of the Festival.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2006
- Authors: Snowball, Jeanette Dalziel
- Date: 2006
- Subjects: Standard Bank National Arts Festival -- Economic aspects , Performing arts festivals -- Economic aspects -- South Africa -- Grahamstown , Arts -- South Africa -- Economic aspects , Finance -- South Africa , Arts -- South Africa -- Finance , Arts -- South Africa -- Political aspects , Finance, Public -- South Africa , South Africa -- Politics and government -- 1994-
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: vital:969 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002703 , Standard Bank National Arts Festival -- Economic aspects , Performing arts festivals -- Economic aspects -- South Africa -- Grahamstown , Arts -- South Africa -- Economic aspects , Finance -- South Africa , Arts -- South Africa -- Finance , Arts -- South Africa -- Political aspects , Finance, Public -- South Africa , South Africa -- Politics and government -- 1994-
- Description: The arts in many countries, but particularly in developing ones, are coming under increasing financial pressure and finding it difficult to justify the increases in government funding needed to maintain and grow the cultural sector. The trend in cultural economics, as well as in other areas, appears to be towards including qualitative valuations, as well as the more traditional quantitative ones. This thesis argues that the value of cultural events should include long term historical qualitative analysis, financial or economic impact and a valuation of the positive externalities provided by cultural events and that any one of these should only be regarded as a partial analysis. Four methods of valuing the arts using the South African National Arts Festival (NAF) as an example are demonstrated. Firstly, a qualitative historical analysis of the role of the NAF in South Africa’s transformation process from Apartheid to the democratic New South Africa is examined, using theories of cultural capital as a theoretical basis. It is argued that the value of cultural events needs to take into account long-term influences especially in countries undergoing political and social transformation. The second valuation method applied is the traditional economic impact study. Four economic impact studies conducted on the NAF are discussed and methodologies compared. It is concluded that, despite the skepticism of many cultural economists, the method can provide a useful partial valuation and may also be used for effective lobbying for government support of the arts. Chapter four discusses willingness to pay studies conducted at the NAF in 2000 and 2003 (as well as a pilot study conducted at the Klein Karoo Nationale Kunstefees). It is found that lower income and education groups do benefit from the positive externalities provided by the Festival and that this is reflected in their willingness to pay to support it. It is also argued that such contingent valuation studies can provide a reasonably reliable valuation of Festival externalities, but that they may be partly capturing current or future expected financial gains as well. Finally, the relatively new choice experiment methodology (also called conjoint analysis) is demonstrated on visitors to the NAF. The great advantage of this method in valuing cultural events is that it provides part-worths of various Festival attributes for different demographic groups. This enables organizes to structure the programme in such a way as to attract previously excluded groups and to conduct a cost-benefit analysis for each part of the Festival.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2006
The relationship between interest rates and inflation in South Africa : revisiting Fisher's hypothesis
- Mitchell-Innes, Henry Alexander
- Authors: Mitchell-Innes, Henry Alexander
- Date: 2006
- Subjects: Fisher effect (Economics) , Interest rates -- South Africa , Interest rates -- Effect of inflation -- South Africa , Inflation (Finance) -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Banks and banking, Central -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:991 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002726 , Fisher effect (Economics) , Interest rates -- South Africa , Interest rates -- Effect of inflation -- South Africa , Inflation (Finance) -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Banks and banking, Central -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Description: This thesis investigates the relationship between expected inflation and nominal interest rates in South Africa and the extent to which the Fisher effect hypothesis holds. The hypothesis, proposed by Fisher (1930), that the nominal rate of interest should reflect movements in the expected rate of inflation has been the subject of much empirical research in many industrialised countries. This wealth of literature can be attributed to various factors including the pivotal role that the nominal rate of interest and, perhaps more importantly, the real rate of interest plays in the economy. The validity of the Fisher effect also has important implications for monetary policy and needs to be considered by central banks. Few studies have been conducted in South Africa to validate this important hypothesis. The analysis uses the 3-month bankers’ acceptance rate and the 10-year government bond rate to proxy both short- and long-term interest rates. The existence of a long-run unit proportional relationship between nominal interest rates and expected inflation is tested using Johansen’s cointegration test. The data is analysed for the period April 2000 to July 2005 as the research aims to establish whether the Fisher relationship holds within an inflation targeting monetary policy framework. The short-run Fisher effect is not empirically verified. This is due to the effects of the monetary policy transmission mechanism and implies that short-term nominal interest rates are a good indication of the stance of monetary policy. A long-run cointegrating relationship is established between long-term interest rates and expected inflation. The long-run adjustment is less than unity, which can be attributed to the credibility of the inflation-targeting framework.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2006
- Authors: Mitchell-Innes, Henry Alexander
- Date: 2006
- Subjects: Fisher effect (Economics) , Interest rates -- South Africa , Interest rates -- Effect of inflation -- South Africa , Inflation (Finance) -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Banks and banking, Central -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:991 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002726 , Fisher effect (Economics) , Interest rates -- South Africa , Interest rates -- Effect of inflation -- South Africa , Inflation (Finance) -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Banks and banking, Central -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Description: This thesis investigates the relationship between expected inflation and nominal interest rates in South Africa and the extent to which the Fisher effect hypothesis holds. The hypothesis, proposed by Fisher (1930), that the nominal rate of interest should reflect movements in the expected rate of inflation has been the subject of much empirical research in many industrialised countries. This wealth of literature can be attributed to various factors including the pivotal role that the nominal rate of interest and, perhaps more importantly, the real rate of interest plays in the economy. The validity of the Fisher effect also has important implications for monetary policy and needs to be considered by central banks. Few studies have been conducted in South Africa to validate this important hypothesis. The analysis uses the 3-month bankers’ acceptance rate and the 10-year government bond rate to proxy both short- and long-term interest rates. The existence of a long-run unit proportional relationship between nominal interest rates and expected inflation is tested using Johansen’s cointegration test. The data is analysed for the period April 2000 to July 2005 as the research aims to establish whether the Fisher relationship holds within an inflation targeting monetary policy framework. The short-run Fisher effect is not empirically verified. This is due to the effects of the monetary policy transmission mechanism and implies that short-term nominal interest rates are a good indication of the stance of monetary policy. A long-run cointegrating relationship is established between long-term interest rates and expected inflation. The long-run adjustment is less than unity, which can be attributed to the credibility of the inflation-targeting framework.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2006