- Title
- The key drivers of grain commodity prices in South Africa: a market intelligence approach
- Creator
- Mbhele, Dadewabo Babongile Pearl
- Subject
- Marketing research -- South Africa
- Subject
- Commodity exchanges -- South Africa Grain -- Economic aspects -- South Africa
- Date Issued
- 2018
- Date
- 2018
- Type
- Thesis
- Type
- Masters
- Type
- MBA
- Identifier
- http://hdl.handle.net/10948/22725
- Identifier
- vital:30068
- Description
- Grain forms a staple part of the majority of the global populations’ diets and it is used a raw material for animal feed in many countries. The envisaged increase in population in years to come can be expected to increase the demand of grain globally. Grain production is expected to fulfil energy requirements since developed countries are increasingly utilising grain as an alternative energy source to reduce the negative environmental effects caused by energy derived from fossil fuels. The grain value chain in South Africa consists of grain producers, input suppliers, millers and processors, as well as traders and speculators. The majority of the grain producers in South Africa are commercial farmers who play an important role in the economy of the country. South Africa trades their grain commodities on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange where grain prices are controlled by different social, economic and political factors. This gives rise to grain commodity price volatility because of its sensitivity to market changes. This study focuses on the difficulty faced by the grain producers and stakeholders in the value chain, like traders and speculators, who are exposed to price related risks as a result of the volatility of the grain commodity. It presents the current mitigation strategies that are available to hedge against these risks. Research shows that the current mitigation strategies are not being fully utilised by the grain producers because of their lack of skills and the time to search through and make sense of the datasets on the abundance of factors that influence the grain commodities market. This study presents a market intelligence approach as a solution to the grain volatility price risk. Market intelligence is utilised to enable the prediction of grain prices and to discover the factors that are driving the market at different periods. This is achieved by utilising neural networks and relative importance statistical techniques. In this study, it was found that the impact of the different factors changes from time to time. It proposed a technique for making sense of the changes in the prices of grain commodities. A framework for the implementation of market intelligence to mitigate against price volatility risks is proposed as an output of this study. The impact of the findings of this study to the grain producers and stakeholders in the value chain is that they can have insight on which factor is driving the market at a given period. This would enable then to adjust their activities and enable increased profitability.
- Format
- xii, 133 leaves
- Format
- Publisher
- Nelson Mandela University
- Publisher
- Faculty of Business and Economics Sciences
- Language
- English
- Rights
- Nelson Mandela University
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