The interaction between oil price shocks, currency volatility and stock market prices: evidence from South Africa
- Authors: Tshivhase, Mikovhe
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Petroleum products -- Prices , Accounting and price fluctuations , Inflation (Finance) -- South Africa , Stock exchanges , Economics
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/43834 , vital:37051
- Description: Crude oil is an essential and strategic commodity in modern economies. Therefore, energy price fluctuations have the potential of affecting the economic welfare of a country. For instance, they have the potential to undermine the government’s attainment of its economic growth targets (National Treasury, 2016:2). The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) also considers oil price movements to be one of the major threats to currency volatility and the continued attainment of its inflation targets of about (3-6, per cent), as evidenced by numerous recent statements by its monetary policy committee (SARB, 2016:5-13). This study used co-integration tests to investigate the interaction between oil price shocks, exchange rates and stock market prices in South Africa over the period 1 January 2011 to 1 April 2018. The study employed the Johansen co-integration test. The results found no long run co-integration between oil prices, exchange rate and stock market prices. Therefore, this study adopted the VAR model for causality tests. Using the VAR model, this study found the existence of a unidirectional causality between stock prices and oil prices, with stock prices leading the oil prices changes. The all share index, resources and financials index were found to be significant variables to explain oil prices. This result is consistent with the business cycle view, which states that oil price fluctuations are mainly driven by demand factors. Furthermore, strong world output growth trends especially in emerging markets, could give rise to an upward surge in oil prices. The study also found that there is a weak correlation between stock price and exchange rate in South Africa. This is consistent with the asset approach. The findings of this study add to the already largely debated theories that seek to explain the relationship between the oil prices, exchange rates and stock market prices. The recommendation of this research is that, policy makers, researchers and investment bankers or fund managers who have interest or trade these financial instruments, may have to consider the role of stock market prices in the various sectors of the economy in their models for forecasting the path of the oil prices and the Rand/US Dollar exchange rate trend.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
- Authors: Tshivhase, Mikovhe
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Petroleum products -- Prices , Accounting and price fluctuations , Inflation (Finance) -- South Africa , Stock exchanges , Economics
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/43834 , vital:37051
- Description: Crude oil is an essential and strategic commodity in modern economies. Therefore, energy price fluctuations have the potential of affecting the economic welfare of a country. For instance, they have the potential to undermine the government’s attainment of its economic growth targets (National Treasury, 2016:2). The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) also considers oil price movements to be one of the major threats to currency volatility and the continued attainment of its inflation targets of about (3-6, per cent), as evidenced by numerous recent statements by its monetary policy committee (SARB, 2016:5-13). This study used co-integration tests to investigate the interaction between oil price shocks, exchange rates and stock market prices in South Africa over the period 1 January 2011 to 1 April 2018. The study employed the Johansen co-integration test. The results found no long run co-integration between oil prices, exchange rate and stock market prices. Therefore, this study adopted the VAR model for causality tests. Using the VAR model, this study found the existence of a unidirectional causality between stock prices and oil prices, with stock prices leading the oil prices changes. The all share index, resources and financials index were found to be significant variables to explain oil prices. This result is consistent with the business cycle view, which states that oil price fluctuations are mainly driven by demand factors. Furthermore, strong world output growth trends especially in emerging markets, could give rise to an upward surge in oil prices. The study also found that there is a weak correlation between stock price and exchange rate in South Africa. This is consistent with the asset approach. The findings of this study add to the already largely debated theories that seek to explain the relationship between the oil prices, exchange rates and stock market prices. The recommendation of this research is that, policy makers, researchers and investment bankers or fund managers who have interest or trade these financial instruments, may have to consider the role of stock market prices in the various sectors of the economy in their models for forecasting the path of the oil prices and the Rand/US Dollar exchange rate trend.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
Difficulties experienced by small businesses in accessing finance
- Kouadio, Gbogbo Nina Marie-Laure
- Authors: Kouadio, Gbogbo Nina Marie-Laure
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Economics , Small business
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MTech
- Identifier: vital:9015 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/d1018633
- Description: Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) significantly contribute to the growth of the economy and the employment sector. However, it is indicated that SMEs lack access to the financial products and services that are critical to their growth. Therefore, the primary objective of this study was to investigate the difficulties experienced by small businesses in accessing finance. An online questionnaire survey was considered an appropriate measurement method for this study. The targeted population of the study included all small businesses operating in the Nelson Mandela Bay Metropole. Thus, some 208 companies were identified as part of the study sampling frame. A total number of 66 questionnaires were returned out of the 208 targeted companies - giving a response rate of 29 percent. The quantitative data were processed using a STATISTICA program, leading to appropriate descriptive statistical analyses, including frequencies, means, medians and standard deviations. In order to obtain a better understanding of the difficulties experienced by small businesses in accessing finance, hypotheses were also formulated and a t-test was used to establish the statistical significance of certain demographic variables and company characteristics regarding the problems experienced by small businesses in accessing finance. The results of the empirical study revealed that the major difficulties faced by small businesses in their access to finance were the lack of collateral and security, the high cost of borrowing interest and the delay in feedback from the financial institutions. Further, by testing the hypotheses, it was also revealed that the ethnic group of the applicant, the total years of business experience of the applicant and the annual turnover of the business have an impact on the access to finance. Based on the relevant literature study and the empirical results, recommendations were made in order to address the identified problems. However, the unavailability of an exhaustive small business database in the Nelson Mandela Bay Metropole did not allow the research to draw on a larger representative sample. Thus, this limitation has impeded in-depth statistical analysis that would have allowed the research to obtain more accurate findings. Further studies could investigate the reasons why in many cases financial institutions reject the funding of small businesses.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
- Authors: Kouadio, Gbogbo Nina Marie-Laure
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Economics , Small business
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MTech
- Identifier: vital:9015 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/d1018633
- Description: Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) significantly contribute to the growth of the economy and the employment sector. However, it is indicated that SMEs lack access to the financial products and services that are critical to their growth. Therefore, the primary objective of this study was to investigate the difficulties experienced by small businesses in accessing finance. An online questionnaire survey was considered an appropriate measurement method for this study. The targeted population of the study included all small businesses operating in the Nelson Mandela Bay Metropole. Thus, some 208 companies were identified as part of the study sampling frame. A total number of 66 questionnaires were returned out of the 208 targeted companies - giving a response rate of 29 percent. The quantitative data were processed using a STATISTICA program, leading to appropriate descriptive statistical analyses, including frequencies, means, medians and standard deviations. In order to obtain a better understanding of the difficulties experienced by small businesses in accessing finance, hypotheses were also formulated and a t-test was used to establish the statistical significance of certain demographic variables and company characteristics regarding the problems experienced by small businesses in accessing finance. The results of the empirical study revealed that the major difficulties faced by small businesses in their access to finance were the lack of collateral and security, the high cost of borrowing interest and the delay in feedback from the financial institutions. Further, by testing the hypotheses, it was also revealed that the ethnic group of the applicant, the total years of business experience of the applicant and the annual turnover of the business have an impact on the access to finance. Based on the relevant literature study and the empirical results, recommendations were made in order to address the identified problems. However, the unavailability of an exhaustive small business database in the Nelson Mandela Bay Metropole did not allow the research to draw on a larger representative sample. Thus, this limitation has impeded in-depth statistical analysis that would have allowed the research to obtain more accurate findings. Further studies could investigate the reasons why in many cases financial institutions reject the funding of small businesses.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
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