Job creation and income generation in the cultural and creative industries: a case study of the shweshwe sewing industry
- Authors: Mapuma, Aviwe Simbonge
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Textile industry -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Clothing trade -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Sewing -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Job creation -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Textile manufacturers -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Textile fabrics , Income -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/122948 , vital:35378
- Description: Worldwide, there has been a growing realisation of the importance of Cultural and Creative Industries as a driving force for employment creation, income generation and economic growth. Therefore, there is a need in South Africa to study and understand these industries setting, and business environment. Shweshwe is a unique local fabric produced by Da Gama Textiles in the Eastern Cape province of South Africa. This fabric is used by many micro-enterprises as an input to make clothes and other items for traditional cultural celebrations and ceremonies. This study is about the micro-enterprises who use South Africa made textiles (i.e. shweshwe textile) as business input. More specifically, it looks at employment creation and income generation opportunities of the micro-enterprises that use shweshwe textile as an input. These micro-enterprises and shweshwe production are being threatened by the rising influx of cheaper ready-made imported clothes that mimic the shweshwe designs and colours, in some cases, the logo as well. This study also plans to estimate the size and discover the attributes of the micro-enterprises that use shweshwe as an input in their businesses in South Africa, in order to estimate the impact of the counterfeit shweshwe imports on those micro-enterprises. This study adopted a mixed-methods approach-using a combination of both qualitative and quantitative data collection methods. Face-to-face interviews with questionnaires, were done with a total sample of 62 owners of the micro-enterprises that use shweshwe as input, in the Western Cape (Cape Town) and Eastern Cape (i.e. Makhanda and East London), South Africa. Self-administered questionnaires were emailed to 20 Jackson’s Stores managers across the country. Lastly, face-to-face interviews were done with the key stakeholder-the representative of Cowie trading (the main shweshwe distributor) and Da Gama Textiles (the factory of shweshwe), during a field visit. The Qualitative data was analysed using thematic analysis, whereas the quantitative data was analysed using inferential and descriptive statistics. The results show, that the micro-enterprises that use shweshwe as input are a significant contributor in terms of employment creation and income generation in South Africa. They also reveal that there is a big number of micro-enterprises that use shweshwe as an input in SA. The findings showed an estimate of between 5077 and 6000 small businesses that are using shweshwe an input, which are associated with 10 900 to 12 900 jobs. It was also found out that there is a transformation in this industry, and that this sector is B-BEE compliant. There are also high levels of human capital in this industry. This is an important finding revealing that there is potential for future growth in this sector. Results also found that the majority micro-enterprise owners (80%) have no other source of income, meaning that they are highly reliant on their shweshwe sewing business income. Additionally, 85% of those business, shweshwe garments makes up half or more of their sewing business proceeds. This reveals that a decline in income caused by the import of ready-made clothes in “fake” shweshwe will have a negative impact on the micro-enterprises’ ability to contribute to economic growth and job creation in this industry. To show the impact of the import of ready-made clothes in “fake” shweshwe on the micro-enterprises’ ability to contribute to economic growth and job creation in this industry. In the questionnaires that were used to conduct face-to-face interviews with the micro-enterprises, respondents were asked to indicate whether they had other sources of income other than the income they generate from the shweshwe sewing business. They were further asked as follow up question to choose from a given list of possible options containing a range of percentages of their business income that comes from the work sewn with shweshwe. This question was asked in order to be able to see, if there were to be a decline in income caused by the import of ready-made clothes in “fake” shweshwe what impact it would have on the micro-enterprises that use shweshwe as an input. The theory of industrial organisation has adopted the view of that businesses operating in the formal sector are more efficient and productive than those in the informal sector (Lobato, 2010). The study found that the micro-enterprises that operate in the formal sector generate more turnover than the ones that operate in the informal sector. However, the theory was further tested by running OLS regression, the results showed that operating in the informal sector does not affect turnover when other variables are controlled for, however, that it does affect job creation. In closing, this thesis provides suggestions on how to support, and protect the micro-enterprises that use shweshwe as an input, in order to enhance this industry’s potential also to ensure its continuous contribution in terms of employment creation and income generation in South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
- Authors: Mapuma, Aviwe Simbonge
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Textile industry -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Clothing trade -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Sewing -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Job creation -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Textile manufacturers -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Textile fabrics , Income -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/122948 , vital:35378
- Description: Worldwide, there has been a growing realisation of the importance of Cultural and Creative Industries as a driving force for employment creation, income generation and economic growth. Therefore, there is a need in South Africa to study and understand these industries setting, and business environment. Shweshwe is a unique local fabric produced by Da Gama Textiles in the Eastern Cape province of South Africa. This fabric is used by many micro-enterprises as an input to make clothes and other items for traditional cultural celebrations and ceremonies. This study is about the micro-enterprises who use South Africa made textiles (i.e. shweshwe textile) as business input. More specifically, it looks at employment creation and income generation opportunities of the micro-enterprises that use shweshwe textile as an input. These micro-enterprises and shweshwe production are being threatened by the rising influx of cheaper ready-made imported clothes that mimic the shweshwe designs and colours, in some cases, the logo as well. This study also plans to estimate the size and discover the attributes of the micro-enterprises that use shweshwe as an input in their businesses in South Africa, in order to estimate the impact of the counterfeit shweshwe imports on those micro-enterprises. This study adopted a mixed-methods approach-using a combination of both qualitative and quantitative data collection methods. Face-to-face interviews with questionnaires, were done with a total sample of 62 owners of the micro-enterprises that use shweshwe as input, in the Western Cape (Cape Town) and Eastern Cape (i.e. Makhanda and East London), South Africa. Self-administered questionnaires were emailed to 20 Jackson’s Stores managers across the country. Lastly, face-to-face interviews were done with the key stakeholder-the representative of Cowie trading (the main shweshwe distributor) and Da Gama Textiles (the factory of shweshwe), during a field visit. The Qualitative data was analysed using thematic analysis, whereas the quantitative data was analysed using inferential and descriptive statistics. The results show, that the micro-enterprises that use shweshwe as input are a significant contributor in terms of employment creation and income generation in South Africa. They also reveal that there is a big number of micro-enterprises that use shweshwe as an input in SA. The findings showed an estimate of between 5077 and 6000 small businesses that are using shweshwe an input, which are associated with 10 900 to 12 900 jobs. It was also found out that there is a transformation in this industry, and that this sector is B-BEE compliant. There are also high levels of human capital in this industry. This is an important finding revealing that there is potential for future growth in this sector. Results also found that the majority micro-enterprise owners (80%) have no other source of income, meaning that they are highly reliant on their shweshwe sewing business income. Additionally, 85% of those business, shweshwe garments makes up half or more of their sewing business proceeds. This reveals that a decline in income caused by the import of ready-made clothes in “fake” shweshwe will have a negative impact on the micro-enterprises’ ability to contribute to economic growth and job creation in this industry. To show the impact of the import of ready-made clothes in “fake” shweshwe on the micro-enterprises’ ability to contribute to economic growth and job creation in this industry. In the questionnaires that were used to conduct face-to-face interviews with the micro-enterprises, respondents were asked to indicate whether they had other sources of income other than the income they generate from the shweshwe sewing business. They were further asked as follow up question to choose from a given list of possible options containing a range of percentages of their business income that comes from the work sewn with shweshwe. This question was asked in order to be able to see, if there were to be a decline in income caused by the import of ready-made clothes in “fake” shweshwe what impact it would have on the micro-enterprises that use shweshwe as an input. The theory of industrial organisation has adopted the view of that businesses operating in the formal sector are more efficient and productive than those in the informal sector (Lobato, 2010). The study found that the micro-enterprises that operate in the formal sector generate more turnover than the ones that operate in the informal sector. However, the theory was further tested by running OLS regression, the results showed that operating in the informal sector does not affect turnover when other variables are controlled for, however, that it does affect job creation. In closing, this thesis provides suggestions on how to support, and protect the micro-enterprises that use shweshwe as an input, in order to enhance this industry’s potential also to ensure its continuous contribution in terms of employment creation and income generation in South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
National debt and sovereign credit ratings
- Authors: Orsmond, Daniel
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Debts, Public -- South Africa , Credit ratings -- South Africa , Gross domestic product -- Africa , Inflation (Finance) -- Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Economic history , Macroeconomics , Moody's Investors Service , Standard and Poor's Ratings Services , Fitch Ratings (Firm)
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/115160 , vital:34083
- Description: In recent years South Africa’s foreign and local denominated debt has been downgraded by the three major global credit agencies, Moody’s, Standard and Poor’s (S&P) and Fitch. The foreign debt has been downgraded to speculative grade or ‘junk’ status by all three agencies. Local debt has been downgraded to ‘junk’ by S& P and Fitch, but Moody’s currently maintains local debt at the lowest level of investment grade. Many economists believe that South Africa’s rapidly rising debt levels are the major contributor to the decisions to downgrade South Africa’s debt. Yet many countries with higher levels of debt continue to be rated investment grade. Clearly, factors other than the actual level of debt are important in determining the credit rating agencies’ rating decisions. The literature suggests several variables are important in determining a country’s sovereign credit rating. These variables include not just the ratio of government debt to gross domestic product, but also a country’s real growth rate, inflation, gross domestic product per capita, external balance to gross domestic product, default history and the level of economic development. In examining the proposition that it is not a country’s debt level per se that matters, but rather the dynamics surrounding that debt, this research also includes three additional variables that are not usually mentioned in the literature. These, based on van der Merwe (1993), are the real GDP growth rate less the real interest rate, the ratio of the fiscal balance to GDP, and the ratio of government interest payments to government expenditure. The purpose of this addition is to examine whether rather than a country’s debt level (debt to GDP variable), it is the sustainability of a country’s ability to service debt, as indicated by the three additional ‘debt dynamic’ variables, that is most important when determining sovereign credit ratings. Panel data analysis for a sample of 12 countries over the period 1996Q1 to 2017Q4 indicates that of the broad macroeconomic variables mentioned in the literature, government debt to GDP, the real growth rate, inflation (cpi), and default history are all statistically significant, with the coefficients having the correct signs in all specification of the model, with the exception of the real growth rate in Models 2 and 3. With regards to the debt dynamic variables, the real growth rate less the real interest rate, as well as the interest payments to government expenditure variables are found to be significant determinants of sovereign credit ratings. Thus, the findings of the research suggest that the level of debt alone is an inadequate determinant of sovereign credit ratings. The dynamics of debt along with other macroeconomic variables are also important determinants of a country’s credit rating. Concerning policy recommendations, it is evident that debt sustainability is important for sovereign credit ratings. Evidence of the direct importance of economic growth in determining credit ratings is mixed, but growth is a key driver of debt dynamics variables and therefore of ratings. This suggests that policy should focus on stimulating growth to reduce the gap between real growth and real interest rates as well as increasing the denominator of the debt to GDP ratio and increase the size of the tax base, which would improve government’s ability to service the interest payments on its debt.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
- Authors: Orsmond, Daniel
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Debts, Public -- South Africa , Credit ratings -- South Africa , Gross domestic product -- Africa , Inflation (Finance) -- Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Economic history , Macroeconomics , Moody's Investors Service , Standard and Poor's Ratings Services , Fitch Ratings (Firm)
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/115160 , vital:34083
- Description: In recent years South Africa’s foreign and local denominated debt has been downgraded by the three major global credit agencies, Moody’s, Standard and Poor’s (S&P) and Fitch. The foreign debt has been downgraded to speculative grade or ‘junk’ status by all three agencies. Local debt has been downgraded to ‘junk’ by S& P and Fitch, but Moody’s currently maintains local debt at the lowest level of investment grade. Many economists believe that South Africa’s rapidly rising debt levels are the major contributor to the decisions to downgrade South Africa’s debt. Yet many countries with higher levels of debt continue to be rated investment grade. Clearly, factors other than the actual level of debt are important in determining the credit rating agencies’ rating decisions. The literature suggests several variables are important in determining a country’s sovereign credit rating. These variables include not just the ratio of government debt to gross domestic product, but also a country’s real growth rate, inflation, gross domestic product per capita, external balance to gross domestic product, default history and the level of economic development. In examining the proposition that it is not a country’s debt level per se that matters, but rather the dynamics surrounding that debt, this research also includes three additional variables that are not usually mentioned in the literature. These, based on van der Merwe (1993), are the real GDP growth rate less the real interest rate, the ratio of the fiscal balance to GDP, and the ratio of government interest payments to government expenditure. The purpose of this addition is to examine whether rather than a country’s debt level (debt to GDP variable), it is the sustainability of a country’s ability to service debt, as indicated by the three additional ‘debt dynamic’ variables, that is most important when determining sovereign credit ratings. Panel data analysis for a sample of 12 countries over the period 1996Q1 to 2017Q4 indicates that of the broad macroeconomic variables mentioned in the literature, government debt to GDP, the real growth rate, inflation (cpi), and default history are all statistically significant, with the coefficients having the correct signs in all specification of the model, with the exception of the real growth rate in Models 2 and 3. With regards to the debt dynamic variables, the real growth rate less the real interest rate, as well as the interest payments to government expenditure variables are found to be significant determinants of sovereign credit ratings. Thus, the findings of the research suggest that the level of debt alone is an inadequate determinant of sovereign credit ratings. The dynamics of debt along with other macroeconomic variables are also important determinants of a country’s credit rating. Concerning policy recommendations, it is evident that debt sustainability is important for sovereign credit ratings. Evidence of the direct importance of economic growth in determining credit ratings is mixed, but growth is a key driver of debt dynamics variables and therefore of ratings. This suggests that policy should focus on stimulating growth to reduce the gap between real growth and real interest rates as well as increasing the denominator of the debt to GDP ratio and increase the size of the tax base, which would improve government’s ability to service the interest payments on its debt.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
Social movements and economic development in post apartheid South Africa: lessons from Latin America
- Authors: Makoni, Tinotenda Charity
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: South Africa -- Economic conditions -- 1991- , South Africa -- Politics and government -- 1994- , Social movements -- South Africa , Social movements -- Latin America , Economic development -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/76420 , vital:30561
- Description: The aim of this research is to bring the literature on political agency and economics together in an analysis of whether social movements can play an important role in economic development in post-apartheid South Africa. The entrenched discourse of sluggish growth and high inequality in post-apartheid South Africa can largely be attributed to the political decision to implement a neoliberal economic development orthodoxy. On the one hand, there is an urgent need to shift the economic development model to an alternate developmentalist model. However, no clearly articulated alternative developmental model has emerged. As a result, economically, South Africa is seemingly stuck. On the other hand, the selection of an economic development model and change in macroeconomic policies requires a political shift. Politically, formal politics has assumed the form of neoliberal democracy, characterised by a largely centralised state and the usurpation of the state and institutions by a national bourgeoisie. Social movements have emerged in response to the failure of neoliberalism to fulfil the promises of early post independent periods. They have been largely successful at highlighting the injustices and the inequalities in the country. However their ability to influence structural economic development has come into question. Firstly, social movements and their “politically destabilising distributive demands” have faced repression from the state as the state and institutions are aligned behind the interests of capital under a neoliberal democracy. Secondly, social movements in South Africa have been largely ideologically under-developed. They have been largely fragmented and tended to contest specific single issues rather than aiming to shift the deeper underlying systemic drivers behind the symptomatic immediate discomforts. The economic dimensions of such a shift are particularly unclear. This fragmentation and apparent lack of economic pragmatism make management or suppression of disruptive movements by the state relatively easy. The research uses a contrast between the Latin American social movements against a South African background in order to see what lessons South Africa can draw from social movements in Latin America. The Latin American case is cautiously more positive and provides comparably more sanguine lessons. In this way, this research seeks to construct a more comprehensive framework for the further study of social movements in South Africa and their potential impact on economic development in South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
Social movements and economic development in post apartheid South Africa: lessons from Latin America
- Authors: Makoni, Tinotenda Charity
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: South Africa -- Economic conditions -- 1991- , South Africa -- Politics and government -- 1994- , Social movements -- South Africa , Social movements -- Latin America , Economic development -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/76420 , vital:30561
- Description: The aim of this research is to bring the literature on political agency and economics together in an analysis of whether social movements can play an important role in economic development in post-apartheid South Africa. The entrenched discourse of sluggish growth and high inequality in post-apartheid South Africa can largely be attributed to the political decision to implement a neoliberal economic development orthodoxy. On the one hand, there is an urgent need to shift the economic development model to an alternate developmentalist model. However, no clearly articulated alternative developmental model has emerged. As a result, economically, South Africa is seemingly stuck. On the other hand, the selection of an economic development model and change in macroeconomic policies requires a political shift. Politically, formal politics has assumed the form of neoliberal democracy, characterised by a largely centralised state and the usurpation of the state and institutions by a national bourgeoisie. Social movements have emerged in response to the failure of neoliberalism to fulfil the promises of early post independent periods. They have been largely successful at highlighting the injustices and the inequalities in the country. However their ability to influence structural economic development has come into question. Firstly, social movements and their “politically destabilising distributive demands” have faced repression from the state as the state and institutions are aligned behind the interests of capital under a neoliberal democracy. Secondly, social movements in South Africa have been largely ideologically under-developed. They have been largely fragmented and tended to contest specific single issues rather than aiming to shift the deeper underlying systemic drivers behind the symptomatic immediate discomforts. The economic dimensions of such a shift are particularly unclear. This fragmentation and apparent lack of economic pragmatism make management or suppression of disruptive movements by the state relatively easy. The research uses a contrast between the Latin American social movements against a South African background in order to see what lessons South Africa can draw from social movements in Latin America. The Latin American case is cautiously more positive and provides comparably more sanguine lessons. In this way, this research seeks to construct a more comprehensive framework for the further study of social movements in South Africa and their potential impact on economic development in South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
The impact of unanticipated news announcements by the US Federal Reserve On South African stock returns
- Authors: Sibanda, Lorna
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Monetary policy -- United States , International finance , South Africa -- Foreign economic relations -- United States , United States -- Foreign economic relations -- South Africa , Banks of issue -- United States , Investments -- South Africa , Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa , Stocks -- Rate of return , Rate of return -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/94703 , vital:31070
- Description: This thesis analyses whether monetary policy announcement shocks are transmitted across countries, with special emphasis on the impact of US Federal Reserve announcements on the South African stock market. Monetary policy is an important source of economic news and affects the risk perceptions of market participants. This study will improve the understanding of stock price determinants and possibly influence SA monetary policy in guarding against possible shocks originating from abroad. Using Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcements over the period 2008 – 2014, the research studied changes in volatility of the South African FTSE/JSE All Share Index returns over this period. An event study and GARCH model approach was adopted to reach the goals of the analysis. The findings were a statistically insignificant connection between SA stock returns and both anticipated and unanticipated US Federal Reserve announcements. Over the sample period, each shock to SA stock returns persisted for approximately 4-5 months. Although SA stock return volatility demonstrated clustering behaviour (indicating sensitivity to economic shocks), the research could not find an obvious relationship between these spikes in volatility and US Federal Reserve announcements. It is concluded that South African stock returns do not change in response to unexpected US monetary policy announcements.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
- Authors: Sibanda, Lorna
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Monetary policy -- United States , International finance , South Africa -- Foreign economic relations -- United States , United States -- Foreign economic relations -- South Africa , Banks of issue -- United States , Investments -- South Africa , Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa , Stocks -- Rate of return , Rate of return -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/94703 , vital:31070
- Description: This thesis analyses whether monetary policy announcement shocks are transmitted across countries, with special emphasis on the impact of US Federal Reserve announcements on the South African stock market. Monetary policy is an important source of economic news and affects the risk perceptions of market participants. This study will improve the understanding of stock price determinants and possibly influence SA monetary policy in guarding against possible shocks originating from abroad. Using Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcements over the period 2008 – 2014, the research studied changes in volatility of the South African FTSE/JSE All Share Index returns over this period. An event study and GARCH model approach was adopted to reach the goals of the analysis. The findings were a statistically insignificant connection between SA stock returns and both anticipated and unanticipated US Federal Reserve announcements. Over the sample period, each shock to SA stock returns persisted for approximately 4-5 months. Although SA stock return volatility demonstrated clustering behaviour (indicating sensitivity to economic shocks), the research could not find an obvious relationship between these spikes in volatility and US Federal Reserve announcements. It is concluded that South African stock returns do not change in response to unexpected US monetary policy announcements.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
The relationship between stock market development and economic growth in Africa
- Authors: Mkhize, Siyanda
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Stock exchanges -- Africa , Africa -- Economic conditions -- 21st century , Economic development -- Africa -- 21st century , Capital market -- Africa , Finance -- Africa -- 21st century , Developing countries -- Economic conditions -- 21st century
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/115149 , vital:34082
- Description: Over the years there has been a substantial increase in the number of African stock markets. This has generated much interest from local and foreign investors, as these stock markets have had high returns. These conditions have created an interesting scenario for investigating the relationship between stock market development and economic growth. However, this opportunity has largely been neglected as the research on African stock market development is limited in developing economies relative to research conducted in developed countries. Furthermore, the research that has been conducted on the relationship between stock market development and economic growth in Africa, has generated inconclusive and conflicting results, in addition to this, the institutional quality of African countries is disregarded in most studies when the stock market development and economic growth nexus is analysed. Therefore, this study aims to explore the relationship between stock market development and economic growth, incorporating institution variables to account for the institutional quality of African countries to provide clarity in this context. To achieve this, two sets of research hypotheses were created the first set aims to determine whether stock development has an influence on economic growth. The second set is to determine if there is any causal relationship between stock market development and economic growth. The study utilizes System Generalized Method of Moments models to examine the effect of stock market development on economic growth, in 18 African countries for the period 2003- 2016. The results indicate that market capitalization has a positive influence on economic growth whilst, contrastingly liquidity in the form of value traded has a negative effect on economic growth. The study further analyses the causal relationship between stock market development and economic growth, by employing the recently developed PVAR-Granger causality test. However, before this is done several Pedroni cointegration tests were first conducted to establish whether a long-term relationship exists between stock market development and economic growth, which revealed that no strong evidence of cointegration exists necessitating the use of a PVAR-Granger causality test. The PVAR-Granger causality test reveals that stock market development granger causes economic growth, irrespective of the stock market development measure used and there is no feedback effect from economic growth. The unilateral causality established in this study flowing from stock market development to economic growth supports the supply-leading hypothesis. The overall results of this study demonstrate that there is ambiguity on the impact of stock market development on economic growth, as the measures of stock market development have contrasting impacts on economic growth. The size component of stock market development in the form of market capitalization has positive influence whilst, liquidity in form of total value traded has a negative effect. However, the causal relationship is clearly shown to be unilaterally flowing from stock market development to economic growth.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
- Authors: Mkhize, Siyanda
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Stock exchanges -- Africa , Africa -- Economic conditions -- 21st century , Economic development -- Africa -- 21st century , Capital market -- Africa , Finance -- Africa -- 21st century , Developing countries -- Economic conditions -- 21st century
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/115149 , vital:34082
- Description: Over the years there has been a substantial increase in the number of African stock markets. This has generated much interest from local and foreign investors, as these stock markets have had high returns. These conditions have created an interesting scenario for investigating the relationship between stock market development and economic growth. However, this opportunity has largely been neglected as the research on African stock market development is limited in developing economies relative to research conducted in developed countries. Furthermore, the research that has been conducted on the relationship between stock market development and economic growth in Africa, has generated inconclusive and conflicting results, in addition to this, the institutional quality of African countries is disregarded in most studies when the stock market development and economic growth nexus is analysed. Therefore, this study aims to explore the relationship between stock market development and economic growth, incorporating institution variables to account for the institutional quality of African countries to provide clarity in this context. To achieve this, two sets of research hypotheses were created the first set aims to determine whether stock development has an influence on economic growth. The second set is to determine if there is any causal relationship between stock market development and economic growth. The study utilizes System Generalized Method of Moments models to examine the effect of stock market development on economic growth, in 18 African countries for the period 2003- 2016. The results indicate that market capitalization has a positive influence on economic growth whilst, contrastingly liquidity in the form of value traded has a negative effect on economic growth. The study further analyses the causal relationship between stock market development and economic growth, by employing the recently developed PVAR-Granger causality test. However, before this is done several Pedroni cointegration tests were first conducted to establish whether a long-term relationship exists between stock market development and economic growth, which revealed that no strong evidence of cointegration exists necessitating the use of a PVAR-Granger causality test. The PVAR-Granger causality test reveals that stock market development granger causes economic growth, irrespective of the stock market development measure used and there is no feedback effect from economic growth. The unilateral causality established in this study flowing from stock market development to economic growth supports the supply-leading hypothesis. The overall results of this study demonstrate that there is ambiguity on the impact of stock market development on economic growth, as the measures of stock market development have contrasting impacts on economic growth. The size component of stock market development in the form of market capitalization has positive influence whilst, liquidity in form of total value traded has a negative effect. However, the causal relationship is clearly shown to be unilaterally flowing from stock market development to economic growth.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
The role of agricultural support programmes on the livelihoods of smallholder maize farmers in Lesotho: asset utilisation, productivity and perceptions
- Authors: Mohlahatsa, Taole
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Agriculture and state -- Lesotho , Agriculture -- Economic aspects -- Lesotho , Farms, Small -- Government policy -- Lesotho , Farms, Small -- Lesotho , Agricultural assistance -- Lesotho , Rural development -- Lesotho
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/71580 , vital:29914
- Description: The agricultural sector is widely considered an important contributor to economic development in least developed countries. It plays an important role in Lesotho and has been the backbone of rural activities and the prime employer of Basotho citizens. Smallholder farming is recognised by the government of Lesotho as a vehicle for addressing food security and poverty reduction. Maize is the principal staple crop produced by about 90 percent of farmers in Lesotho and it constitutes about 80 percent of the Basotho diet. Maize production is highly affected by climate change and is characterised by fluctuating yields because of erratic rainfall. In addition to unfavorable climate change, smallholder farmers in Lesotho experience challenges such as lack of farming inputs, limited access to markets and limited financial capital. These constraints confine them to a life of subsistence farming with low production and increased incidences of poverty. The government of Lesotho has intervened in the smallholder agricultural sector to stimulate production and productivity by introducing some agricultural programmes such as (i) the National Fertiliser and Input subsidy, (ii) the Smallholder Agricultural Development Programme, (iii) the National Block Farming, and (iv) the Integrated Watershed Management Programme. However, despite such government interventions, production in the smallholder agricultural sector continues to face recurring constraints. Studies on the National Block Farming Programme have showed that the programme has had limited impact on the livelihoods of smallholder farmers. Furthermore, farmers believe the Integrated Watershed Management Programme has a biased selection criteria as selection of areas is influenced by politicians who favour areas where they have a large political following and marginilise other areas. These concerns have also led to low participation rates in such programmes as wealthier, large scale farmers capture most of the benefits of government programmes. Disproportionate benefits of agricultural programmes to smallholder farmers imply that they continue to face the same constraints in production and have to find alternative ways of maintaining production and selling excess produce to sustain their livelihoods. The main goal of this research is therefore to study the livelihoods of smallholder maize farmers in Lesotho and how agricultural support programmes influence their production of maize. The study adopted a pragmatic mixed methods approach with a qualitative dominant sequential design. Accordingly, both quantitative and qualitative data was used to address the research goal. Quantitative data collected from the Lesotho Bureau of Statistics and the World Bank was used for trend analysis on maize productivity, temperature and rainfall over the period 1980-2016. Qualitative primary data was collected by conducting focus group discussions with smallholder maize farmers and key stakeholder interviews using the sustainable livelihood framework as a conceptual guide. The study comprised of a total of 85 research participants consisting of 75 smallholder maize farmers and 10 key stakeholders. Farmers were selected from 10 key maize producing areas in Leribe and Mafeteng districts in Leribe. Results revealed fluctuating maize productivity and productivity growth rates where such fluctuations are caused by government intervention and natural calamities in the form of erratic rains and dry spells. Droughts and late arrival of subsidised inputs are the chief constraints to maize production. In relation to livelihood assets, human and social assets are the more available assets relative to other assets (financial, natural and physical) of the sustainable livelihood framework. Furthermore, the National Fertiliser and Input subsidy Programme and the Smallholder Agricultural Development Programme are the most beneficial programmes to farmers livelihoods as they increase the accessibility of limited livelihood assets and therefore allowing farmers to achieve their livelihood goals. In contrast, the National Block Farming and the Integrated Watershed Management Programme are the least beneficial programmes to farmers’ livelihoods and are biased in their geographical targeting criteria. The study recommends that the government revises all selected support programmes in this study in areas warranting improvements so as to fairly and efficiently allocate resources that meet the needs of farmers. The study also recommends that farmers put more effort in adopting new technologies and strategies to improve production of maize in areas where government intervention has failed.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
- Authors: Mohlahatsa, Taole
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Agriculture and state -- Lesotho , Agriculture -- Economic aspects -- Lesotho , Farms, Small -- Government policy -- Lesotho , Farms, Small -- Lesotho , Agricultural assistance -- Lesotho , Rural development -- Lesotho
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/71580 , vital:29914
- Description: The agricultural sector is widely considered an important contributor to economic development in least developed countries. It plays an important role in Lesotho and has been the backbone of rural activities and the prime employer of Basotho citizens. Smallholder farming is recognised by the government of Lesotho as a vehicle for addressing food security and poverty reduction. Maize is the principal staple crop produced by about 90 percent of farmers in Lesotho and it constitutes about 80 percent of the Basotho diet. Maize production is highly affected by climate change and is characterised by fluctuating yields because of erratic rainfall. In addition to unfavorable climate change, smallholder farmers in Lesotho experience challenges such as lack of farming inputs, limited access to markets and limited financial capital. These constraints confine them to a life of subsistence farming with low production and increased incidences of poverty. The government of Lesotho has intervened in the smallholder agricultural sector to stimulate production and productivity by introducing some agricultural programmes such as (i) the National Fertiliser and Input subsidy, (ii) the Smallholder Agricultural Development Programme, (iii) the National Block Farming, and (iv) the Integrated Watershed Management Programme. However, despite such government interventions, production in the smallholder agricultural sector continues to face recurring constraints. Studies on the National Block Farming Programme have showed that the programme has had limited impact on the livelihoods of smallholder farmers. Furthermore, farmers believe the Integrated Watershed Management Programme has a biased selection criteria as selection of areas is influenced by politicians who favour areas where they have a large political following and marginilise other areas. These concerns have also led to low participation rates in such programmes as wealthier, large scale farmers capture most of the benefits of government programmes. Disproportionate benefits of agricultural programmes to smallholder farmers imply that they continue to face the same constraints in production and have to find alternative ways of maintaining production and selling excess produce to sustain their livelihoods. The main goal of this research is therefore to study the livelihoods of smallholder maize farmers in Lesotho and how agricultural support programmes influence their production of maize. The study adopted a pragmatic mixed methods approach with a qualitative dominant sequential design. Accordingly, both quantitative and qualitative data was used to address the research goal. Quantitative data collected from the Lesotho Bureau of Statistics and the World Bank was used for trend analysis on maize productivity, temperature and rainfall over the period 1980-2016. Qualitative primary data was collected by conducting focus group discussions with smallholder maize farmers and key stakeholder interviews using the sustainable livelihood framework as a conceptual guide. The study comprised of a total of 85 research participants consisting of 75 smallholder maize farmers and 10 key stakeholders. Farmers were selected from 10 key maize producing areas in Leribe and Mafeteng districts in Leribe. Results revealed fluctuating maize productivity and productivity growth rates where such fluctuations are caused by government intervention and natural calamities in the form of erratic rains and dry spells. Droughts and late arrival of subsidised inputs are the chief constraints to maize production. In relation to livelihood assets, human and social assets are the more available assets relative to other assets (financial, natural and physical) of the sustainable livelihood framework. Furthermore, the National Fertiliser and Input subsidy Programme and the Smallholder Agricultural Development Programme are the most beneficial programmes to farmers livelihoods as they increase the accessibility of limited livelihood assets and therefore allowing farmers to achieve their livelihood goals. In contrast, the National Block Farming and the Integrated Watershed Management Programme are the least beneficial programmes to farmers’ livelihoods and are biased in their geographical targeting criteria. The study recommends that the government revises all selected support programmes in this study in areas warranting improvements so as to fairly and efficiently allocate resources that meet the needs of farmers. The study also recommends that farmers put more effort in adopting new technologies and strategies to improve production of maize in areas where government intervention has failed.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
Toward universal sustainability: strategies and guidelines
- Authors: Robertson, Struan Ross
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Sustainability , Sustainable development , Economic development , Social planning
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MEcon
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/71591 , vital:29922
- Description: This research considers the notion of universal sustainability, which involves the three well-known pillars of sustainable development, namely, economic development, social development, and environmental sustainability. Critical to achieving this unity of purpose in the aligning of economic and social aspirations with the limits of the natural environment is the enhancing of human capability and the development of political institutions capable of representing the interests of all people by leveraging resources responsibly. Universal sustainability differs from the concept of sustainable development in that the emphasis is cast not on merely achieving economic development despite the challenges presented by social and environmental concerns, but on seeking to understand what a better society might look like that integrates outcomes in-line with these three factors. Universal sustainability is about re-thinking the purpose of material progress to realign this with the need for social cohesion and to reposition human values and expectations safely within ecological boundaries. In other words, strategies and guidelines that promote the realisation of universal sustainability would recommend a society that values economic and technological progress with equal measure to social development and environmental sustainability, as well as all the other factors that promote human wellbeing. Consequently, this research also considers the inter-linkages that are found between economic development (i.e. technological advancement) and social (i.e. normative progress) and societal (i.e. long-term institutional differentiation) development with respect to labour markets, the formation of skills, the scope of welfare regimes and hence, the trajectory of the social reproduction of society. The prospects of environmental sustainability, like that of societal development, are found to be influenced by the values that a society holds and the ability of economic and social factors to adapt in response to the environmental challenges that face societies in socially workable ways. This research concerns the great quest for meaning and purpose that humans have undertaken throughout history, and asks how human wellbeing – in its best, most expansive sense, can be improved and how societies can advance and prosper going forward while keeping the avenue of individual self-actualisation open as a possibility in the everyday lives of citizens? In achieving this end, this research looks at what economic development strategies suggest as tenable against these aspirations. Furthermore, this research looks at the experience of advanced democratic societies to better conceive of how material progress, social cohesion via education and welfare, and environmental sustainability can be attained. The selection of these countries ensures understanding for the kind of political arrangements that safeguard human wellbeing and give voice to freedom, material opportunities, and civic responsibilities. Critical to both these assessments is defining the mechanics that underlie the processes that achieve material and moral progress in human societies. The main goal of this research is to recommend strategies and guidelines for developing countries like South Africa that wish to develop and thrive. Therefore, this research presents an assessment framework for understanding both universal sustainability and how to achieve it. This research concludes that mindfulness about the natural environment and the services it supplies, as well as mindfulness about what drives economic development and what supports the conditions for human flourishing, are necessary for universal sustainability strategies and guidelines to work. Indeed, the ideologies that societies subscribe to and the values they hold are important 84 to creating the right conditions for economic tools to work to advance economic development, material improvement, socio-environmental justice, and ultimately for achieving universal sustainability. But central to both economic and environmental futures is an understanding that at the heart of the matter is a concern for apprehending what drives human behaviour and aspiration, and what creates social cohesion.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
- Authors: Robertson, Struan Ross
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Sustainability , Sustainable development , Economic development , Social planning
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MEcon
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/71591 , vital:29922
- Description: This research considers the notion of universal sustainability, which involves the three well-known pillars of sustainable development, namely, economic development, social development, and environmental sustainability. Critical to achieving this unity of purpose in the aligning of economic and social aspirations with the limits of the natural environment is the enhancing of human capability and the development of political institutions capable of representing the interests of all people by leveraging resources responsibly. Universal sustainability differs from the concept of sustainable development in that the emphasis is cast not on merely achieving economic development despite the challenges presented by social and environmental concerns, but on seeking to understand what a better society might look like that integrates outcomes in-line with these three factors. Universal sustainability is about re-thinking the purpose of material progress to realign this with the need for social cohesion and to reposition human values and expectations safely within ecological boundaries. In other words, strategies and guidelines that promote the realisation of universal sustainability would recommend a society that values economic and technological progress with equal measure to social development and environmental sustainability, as well as all the other factors that promote human wellbeing. Consequently, this research also considers the inter-linkages that are found between economic development (i.e. technological advancement) and social (i.e. normative progress) and societal (i.e. long-term institutional differentiation) development with respect to labour markets, the formation of skills, the scope of welfare regimes and hence, the trajectory of the social reproduction of society. The prospects of environmental sustainability, like that of societal development, are found to be influenced by the values that a society holds and the ability of economic and social factors to adapt in response to the environmental challenges that face societies in socially workable ways. This research concerns the great quest for meaning and purpose that humans have undertaken throughout history, and asks how human wellbeing – in its best, most expansive sense, can be improved and how societies can advance and prosper going forward while keeping the avenue of individual self-actualisation open as a possibility in the everyday lives of citizens? In achieving this end, this research looks at what economic development strategies suggest as tenable against these aspirations. Furthermore, this research looks at the experience of advanced democratic societies to better conceive of how material progress, social cohesion via education and welfare, and environmental sustainability can be attained. The selection of these countries ensures understanding for the kind of political arrangements that safeguard human wellbeing and give voice to freedom, material opportunities, and civic responsibilities. Critical to both these assessments is defining the mechanics that underlie the processes that achieve material and moral progress in human societies. The main goal of this research is to recommend strategies and guidelines for developing countries like South Africa that wish to develop and thrive. Therefore, this research presents an assessment framework for understanding both universal sustainability and how to achieve it. This research concludes that mindfulness about the natural environment and the services it supplies, as well as mindfulness about what drives economic development and what supports the conditions for human flourishing, are necessary for universal sustainability strategies and guidelines to work. Indeed, the ideologies that societies subscribe to and the values they hold are important 84 to creating the right conditions for economic tools to work to advance economic development, material improvement, socio-environmental justice, and ultimately for achieving universal sustainability. But central to both economic and environmental futures is an understanding that at the heart of the matter is a concern for apprehending what drives human behaviour and aspiration, and what creates social cohesion.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
An investigation of the informal market value chain for prickly pear (Opuntia ficus-indica) in Nelson Mandela Bay, Eastern Cape
- Authors: Ntsonge, Sinazo
- Date: 2018
- Subjects: Opuntia ficus-indica -- South Africa -- Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality , Alien plants -- Economic aspects -- South Africa -- Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality , Women heads of households -- South Africa -- Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality , Poor -- South Africa -- Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality , Informal sector (Economics) -- South Africa -- Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality , Sustainable Livelihoods Framework
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MSc
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/62894 , vital:28308
- Description: The use of alien plant species as part of the livelihood resources of poor people raises conflicts with national legislation, which views these plants as threats to native plant biodiversity. However, there is also increasing body of literature on the contribution that some of these plants make to the livelihoods of poor people. The level of significance of some alien plant species to livelihoods is mostly highlighted in the case of female market participants who are in a position of household headship. Since most African cultures dictate the role of females as solely being that of homemaker while males are assigned the role household headship and breadwinner, women often find themselves having to shoulder the household responsibilities when the household head is no longer there. This was the case in the Nelson Mandela Bay informal prickly pear market that this study sought to investigate. Even though there were also male participants in the prickly pear market, the majority of participants in the market were female who also mentioned they were the sole breadwinner for their households. This study investigated the economic contribution that the prickly pear (Opuntia ficus-indica) informal market makes to the livelihoods of people living in the Nelson Mandela Bay. The significance of the market’s contribution to their livelihoods was examined through using the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework. The study revealed that although the prickly pear income was largely supplementary due to it being available for only three months of the year, the income was a safety net resource for the market participants who had limited access to other sources of income. The results also highlighted the reasons people were engaging in the informal prickly pear market. The main reason that was mentioned was unemployment. Through a livelihoods analysis using the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework, it was revealed that the other factors that were contributing to their unemployment were low levels of education, low levels of marketable skills, and old age. The study revealed through calculations of the estimated economic value of each market activity the potential of the prickly pear to be used as a poverty fighting tool. Although the results of this study only highlight the economic value of the prickly pear to people in a small area compared to the rest of the province and the country, the informal market’s significance still presents a strong case for the establishment of an agroprocessing industry, which would support the production of value-added products. Since the largest populations of the prickly pear in Uitenhage are currently under effective control by the cochineal species, promotion of its economic value instead of eradicating it without considering its value to the livelihoods of the people in the market could also ensure that its populations are kept under control. Job creation in the agroprocessing industry would not only improve the livelihoods of those involved in the market, but would also feed into the national economy instead of taking from it via the costs incurred during clearing.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2018
- Authors: Ntsonge, Sinazo
- Date: 2018
- Subjects: Opuntia ficus-indica -- South Africa -- Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality , Alien plants -- Economic aspects -- South Africa -- Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality , Women heads of households -- South Africa -- Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality , Poor -- South Africa -- Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality , Informal sector (Economics) -- South Africa -- Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality , Sustainable Livelihoods Framework
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MSc
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/62894 , vital:28308
- Description: The use of alien plant species as part of the livelihood resources of poor people raises conflicts with national legislation, which views these plants as threats to native plant biodiversity. However, there is also increasing body of literature on the contribution that some of these plants make to the livelihoods of poor people. The level of significance of some alien plant species to livelihoods is mostly highlighted in the case of female market participants who are in a position of household headship. Since most African cultures dictate the role of females as solely being that of homemaker while males are assigned the role household headship and breadwinner, women often find themselves having to shoulder the household responsibilities when the household head is no longer there. This was the case in the Nelson Mandela Bay informal prickly pear market that this study sought to investigate. Even though there were also male participants in the prickly pear market, the majority of participants in the market were female who also mentioned they were the sole breadwinner for their households. This study investigated the economic contribution that the prickly pear (Opuntia ficus-indica) informal market makes to the livelihoods of people living in the Nelson Mandela Bay. The significance of the market’s contribution to their livelihoods was examined through using the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework. The study revealed that although the prickly pear income was largely supplementary due to it being available for only three months of the year, the income was a safety net resource for the market participants who had limited access to other sources of income. The results also highlighted the reasons people were engaging in the informal prickly pear market. The main reason that was mentioned was unemployment. Through a livelihoods analysis using the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework, it was revealed that the other factors that were contributing to their unemployment were low levels of education, low levels of marketable skills, and old age. The study revealed through calculations of the estimated economic value of each market activity the potential of the prickly pear to be used as a poverty fighting tool. Although the results of this study only highlight the economic value of the prickly pear to people in a small area compared to the rest of the province and the country, the informal market’s significance still presents a strong case for the establishment of an agroprocessing industry, which would support the production of value-added products. Since the largest populations of the prickly pear in Uitenhage are currently under effective control by the cochineal species, promotion of its economic value instead of eradicating it without considering its value to the livelihoods of the people in the market could also ensure that its populations are kept under control. Job creation in the agroprocessing industry would not only improve the livelihoods of those involved in the market, but would also feed into the national economy instead of taking from it via the costs incurred during clearing.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2018
Energy use patterns and trends: the impact of energy policy in South African low-income households
- Israel-Akinbo, Sylvia Olawumi
- Authors: Israel-Akinbo, Sylvia Olawumi
- Date: 2018
- Subjects: Energy policy -- Social aspects -- South Africa , Energy security -- South Africa , Households -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , Poor -- Energy assistance -- South Africa , Poor -- South Africa , University of Cape Town. National Income Dynamics Study , Free Basic Electricity Policy (South Africa) , Income and Expenditure Survey (South Africa)
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/62264 , vital:28148
- Description: Energy poverty is a growing concern especially amongst low-income populations in developing countries. The transition to modern energy carriers is associated with welfare improvement and it is considered as an important developmental goal to achieve, in order to eradicate energy poverty. As such, the South African government has made energy poverty an issue of policy focus. Literature abounds with different measures of energy poverty; energy programmes and policies are also aimed at improving the welfare of the low-income households in terms of basic services such as electricity. As a point of entry into this study, this thesis explored energy use patterns and trends in low-income South African households. The research objectives addressed in the study included investigating the extent of energy poverty through a multidimensional energy poverty index, examining the extent to which the 'energy ladder' and 'energy stacking' models explains energy transition patterns and to examining whether the Free Basic Electricity Policy has impacted on energy choices and energy poverty. In order to contribute to energy poverty and energy policy discussion in South Africa, this study has investigated the dimensions of energy poverty amongst low-income South African households from these three different perspectives (objectives). A positivist approach, by using a quantitative method was used to underpin the study. The study utilised secondary data, which were from the National Income Dynamics Survey and Income and Expenditure Survey. The former was used for the analysis of the multidimensional energy poverty index and energy transition patterns whilst the latter was used for the analysis of the impact of the Free Basic Electricity Policy. The four waves of the National Income Dynamics Survey, with 2008 as the base year and the 2010/2011 version of the Income and Expenditure Survey were used whilst the data were processed through the quantitative software package, STATA version 12. The data were then analysed using the multidimensional energy poverty framework by Nussbaumer et al. (2011) and econometric models, which best fit the objectives. The result of the panel analysis, which assesses the multidimensional energy poverty for low-income households in South Africa showed that low-income households in both urban and rural areas are in a moderate state of energy poverty but different levels. However, the cross-sectional analysis revealed that the percentage of low-income households that are energy poor is reducing for the rural households but increasing for their urban counterparts from 2008 to 2014. The panel and cross-sectional results of the contribution of the energy dimensions in multidimensional energy poverty shows that the low-income households are especially energy poor in terms of heating fuel. The findings from the econometric estimates partly confirmed an energy ladder behaviour for the energy choice for cooking. An energy stacking behaviour was confirmed for the low- income households for these energy services - heating and lighting. Moreover, it was found that with respect to cooking and heating, low-income households living in a modern dwelling, having a small household size and residing in an urban area are less likely to use transitional or traditional energy carriers but most likely to use modern energy carriers. In addition, low-income households are more likely to use modern energy carriers for their cooking and heating in 2010, 2012 and 2014 than in 2008. For lighting energy service, low- income households living in a modern dwelling in an urban settlement are most likely to use modern energy carriers for lighting and less likely to use transitional energy carriers or candles. Only in 2014 were low-income households more likely to use modern energy carriers for lighting than in 2008. The results further showed that modern energy carriers have the highest probability of being preferred for lighting followed by cooking and lastly heating. Also emerging from the findings are that more urban low-income households are receiving the Free Basic Electricity (FBE) grant than their counterparts in the rural areas. The probability of low-income households owning entertainment/education appliance and food preserving appliance is positively influenced by access to Free Basic Electricity. The low- income households living in an urban settlement and in a modern type of dwelling supported this result. However, household size does not seems to support this result should it grow larger.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2018
- Authors: Israel-Akinbo, Sylvia Olawumi
- Date: 2018
- Subjects: Energy policy -- Social aspects -- South Africa , Energy security -- South Africa , Households -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , Poor -- Energy assistance -- South Africa , Poor -- South Africa , University of Cape Town. National Income Dynamics Study , Free Basic Electricity Policy (South Africa) , Income and Expenditure Survey (South Africa)
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/62264 , vital:28148
- Description: Energy poverty is a growing concern especially amongst low-income populations in developing countries. The transition to modern energy carriers is associated with welfare improvement and it is considered as an important developmental goal to achieve, in order to eradicate energy poverty. As such, the South African government has made energy poverty an issue of policy focus. Literature abounds with different measures of energy poverty; energy programmes and policies are also aimed at improving the welfare of the low-income households in terms of basic services such as electricity. As a point of entry into this study, this thesis explored energy use patterns and trends in low-income South African households. The research objectives addressed in the study included investigating the extent of energy poverty through a multidimensional energy poverty index, examining the extent to which the 'energy ladder' and 'energy stacking' models explains energy transition patterns and to examining whether the Free Basic Electricity Policy has impacted on energy choices and energy poverty. In order to contribute to energy poverty and energy policy discussion in South Africa, this study has investigated the dimensions of energy poverty amongst low-income South African households from these three different perspectives (objectives). A positivist approach, by using a quantitative method was used to underpin the study. The study utilised secondary data, which were from the National Income Dynamics Survey and Income and Expenditure Survey. The former was used for the analysis of the multidimensional energy poverty index and energy transition patterns whilst the latter was used for the analysis of the impact of the Free Basic Electricity Policy. The four waves of the National Income Dynamics Survey, with 2008 as the base year and the 2010/2011 version of the Income and Expenditure Survey were used whilst the data were processed through the quantitative software package, STATA version 12. The data were then analysed using the multidimensional energy poverty framework by Nussbaumer et al. (2011) and econometric models, which best fit the objectives. The result of the panel analysis, which assesses the multidimensional energy poverty for low-income households in South Africa showed that low-income households in both urban and rural areas are in a moderate state of energy poverty but different levels. However, the cross-sectional analysis revealed that the percentage of low-income households that are energy poor is reducing for the rural households but increasing for their urban counterparts from 2008 to 2014. The panel and cross-sectional results of the contribution of the energy dimensions in multidimensional energy poverty shows that the low-income households are especially energy poor in terms of heating fuel. The findings from the econometric estimates partly confirmed an energy ladder behaviour for the energy choice for cooking. An energy stacking behaviour was confirmed for the low- income households for these energy services - heating and lighting. Moreover, it was found that with respect to cooking and heating, low-income households living in a modern dwelling, having a small household size and residing in an urban area are less likely to use transitional or traditional energy carriers but most likely to use modern energy carriers. In addition, low-income households are more likely to use modern energy carriers for their cooking and heating in 2010, 2012 and 2014 than in 2008. For lighting energy service, low- income households living in a modern dwelling in an urban settlement are most likely to use modern energy carriers for lighting and less likely to use transitional energy carriers or candles. Only in 2014 were low-income households more likely to use modern energy carriers for lighting than in 2008. The results further showed that modern energy carriers have the highest probability of being preferred for lighting followed by cooking and lastly heating. Also emerging from the findings are that more urban low-income households are receiving the Free Basic Electricity (FBE) grant than their counterparts in the rural areas. The probability of low-income households owning entertainment/education appliance and food preserving appliance is positively influenced by access to Free Basic Electricity. The low- income households living in an urban settlement and in a modern type of dwelling supported this result. However, household size does not seems to support this result should it grow larger.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2018
Integration of small-scale mohair farmers into the commercial agricultural economy in Lesotho: a new institutional economics approach
- Authors: Rantlo, Montoeli Ashby
- Date: 2018
- Subjects: Farms, Small Lesotho , Mohair Lesotho , Institutional economics , Transaction costs , Informal sector (Economics)
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/62275 , vital:28149
- Description: Agriculture continues to be a strategic sector in the development of most low-income countries like Lesotho where small-scale farming is the dominant livelihood activity that provides income and employment to the people. Smallholder farmers' integration into the commercial agricultural markets is a crucial element for economic development and has become a part of development strategies for developing countries and the objectives of international development institutions. The integration of the smallholders into these markets is dependent upon a number of factors including formal and informal institutions. Factors like population growth and demographic changes, technological change and introduction of new commodities, development of infrastructure and market institutions, development of the nonfarm sector and broader economy, rising labour opportunity costs, and macroeconomic, trade and sectoral policies affecting prices and other driving forces determine market participation. In addition, development of input and output markets, institutions like property rights and land tenure, market regulations, cultural and social factors affecting consumption preferences, production and market opportunities and constraints, agro-climatic conditions, and production and market related risks are other factors that affect the commercialisation process. On the other hand, factors like smallholder resource endowments including land and other natural capital, labour, physical capital, and human capital among others are household specific and considered internal determinants of market participation. Nevertheless, the decision to participate in agricultural markets lies with the individual farming household. Under the New Institutional Economics (NIE), this decision is influenced by institutional factors such as risk and preferences, factors which affect household production and the level of costs associated with market transactions. These market transactions are commonly referred to as transaction costs. The study focused on investigating the institutions that limit the integration of small-scale mohair farmers into the commercial agricultural economy in Lesotho. The documentation and evaluation of the institutional structure of the mohair industry is performed whereby the institutional factors influencing participation of small-scale mohair farmers in formal, informal and illegal markets in Lesotho and factors contributing to transaction costs associated with the integration of small-scale farmers into the commercial mohair sector are investigated. Therefore, the investigation will help to address the institutional problems hindering the development of an effective marketing structure for the commercialisation of small-scale mohair producers in Lesotho. The results of the study show that the small-scale mohair farmers that use the formal markets are integrated into the commercial agricultural economy and these farmers' integration into the mainstream economy is influenced by access to government support in the form of shearing sheds, transport subsidies and advisory services. They also have access to market information, marketing infrastructure, knowledge of grades and standards and secure property rights. Other factors that helped their integration into the commercial economy is their contractual agreements with mohair buyers, path dependent based decision making as well as the collective approach to mohair farming. The small-scale mohair farmers using the informal markets do not receive the advantages received by the famers in the formal markets. These small-scale mohair farmers are not integrated into the commercial markets and their only option is the informal markets and their participation in these markets is enhanced by their marketing arrangements with the informal traders, culture influenced decisions, social capital and prompt payments. Despite integration into the commercial agricultural economy, small-scale farmers that use formal markets face the challenges of power imbalances, mistrust and conflicts which may affect this integration into the commercial markets if left unchecked. The study concludes that in the face of institutional challenges, the small-scale mohair farmers using the formal markets are integrated into the commercial agricultural economy and there is potential for improvement of their integration as well as the integration of the small-scale mohair farmers that use the informal markets if institutional challenges are addressed.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2018
- Authors: Rantlo, Montoeli Ashby
- Date: 2018
- Subjects: Farms, Small Lesotho , Mohair Lesotho , Institutional economics , Transaction costs , Informal sector (Economics)
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/62275 , vital:28149
- Description: Agriculture continues to be a strategic sector in the development of most low-income countries like Lesotho where small-scale farming is the dominant livelihood activity that provides income and employment to the people. Smallholder farmers' integration into the commercial agricultural markets is a crucial element for economic development and has become a part of development strategies for developing countries and the objectives of international development institutions. The integration of the smallholders into these markets is dependent upon a number of factors including formal and informal institutions. Factors like population growth and demographic changes, technological change and introduction of new commodities, development of infrastructure and market institutions, development of the nonfarm sector and broader economy, rising labour opportunity costs, and macroeconomic, trade and sectoral policies affecting prices and other driving forces determine market participation. In addition, development of input and output markets, institutions like property rights and land tenure, market regulations, cultural and social factors affecting consumption preferences, production and market opportunities and constraints, agro-climatic conditions, and production and market related risks are other factors that affect the commercialisation process. On the other hand, factors like smallholder resource endowments including land and other natural capital, labour, physical capital, and human capital among others are household specific and considered internal determinants of market participation. Nevertheless, the decision to participate in agricultural markets lies with the individual farming household. Under the New Institutional Economics (NIE), this decision is influenced by institutional factors such as risk and preferences, factors which affect household production and the level of costs associated with market transactions. These market transactions are commonly referred to as transaction costs. The study focused on investigating the institutions that limit the integration of small-scale mohair farmers into the commercial agricultural economy in Lesotho. The documentation and evaluation of the institutional structure of the mohair industry is performed whereby the institutional factors influencing participation of small-scale mohair farmers in formal, informal and illegal markets in Lesotho and factors contributing to transaction costs associated with the integration of small-scale farmers into the commercial mohair sector are investigated. Therefore, the investigation will help to address the institutional problems hindering the development of an effective marketing structure for the commercialisation of small-scale mohair producers in Lesotho. The results of the study show that the small-scale mohair farmers that use the formal markets are integrated into the commercial agricultural economy and these farmers' integration into the mainstream economy is influenced by access to government support in the form of shearing sheds, transport subsidies and advisory services. They also have access to market information, marketing infrastructure, knowledge of grades and standards and secure property rights. Other factors that helped their integration into the commercial economy is their contractual agreements with mohair buyers, path dependent based decision making as well as the collective approach to mohair farming. The small-scale mohair farmers using the informal markets do not receive the advantages received by the famers in the formal markets. These small-scale mohair farmers are not integrated into the commercial markets and their only option is the informal markets and their participation in these markets is enhanced by their marketing arrangements with the informal traders, culture influenced decisions, social capital and prompt payments. Despite integration into the commercial agricultural economy, small-scale farmers that use formal markets face the challenges of power imbalances, mistrust and conflicts which may affect this integration into the commercial markets if left unchecked. The study concludes that in the face of institutional challenges, the small-scale mohair farmers using the formal markets are integrated into the commercial agricultural economy and there is potential for improvement of their integration as well as the integration of the small-scale mohair farmers that use the informal markets if institutional challenges are addressed.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2018
Measuring the elasticity of electricity demand in South Africa: implications for future demand and supply
- Authors: Kosiorek, Sebastian
- Date: 2018
- Subjects: Electric power consumption -- South Africa , Electric power distribution -- South Africa , Electric power production -- South Africa , Electric power failures -- South Africa , Electric utilities -- Law and legislation -- South Africa , Autoregression (Statistics) , Renewable energy sources -- South Africa , Energy policy -- South Africa , Integrated Resource Plan
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/62472 , vital:28196
- Description: A key economic issue for government is the ability to effectively match electricity supply to electricity demand, because of the substantial economic losses in the case of where there is too little supply, or the waste of scarce resources where there is too much supply. In the case of South Africa, this issue, the importance of which was highlighted by the power shortages and associated “rolling blackouts” experience in 2008, has led to the creation of the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) as a means to decide how energy policy will be developed. Recently, however, the IRP 2010 and its subsequent 2013 and 2016 (draft) updates have been criticised as being too optimistic in regards to their projections of economic growth and electricity demand, making the recommendations in these documents to be flawed. Using monthly data from January 1990 to May 2017, together with Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing for cointegration, this paper measures changes in the elasticity of electricity demand as a result of the massive price hikes over the past decade. Thereafter, the implications of changed electricity as well as possibly lower Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in the future for forecasts of possible future demand for electricity are examined. From these revised forecasts, it is possible to make appropriate recommendations in regards to electricity supply policy for South Africa including what possible energy mix is needed as well as the requirements for creating new supply to meet possible future demand. It is concluded that future electricity demand is likely to be much lower than forecast in the IRP 2010 and IRP 2013 documents. The degree of uncertainty in electricity demand growth suggests that large-scale increases in supply capacity taking years to construct, such as coal or nuclear, should be avoided. Small, incremental increases in supply that are able to come on stream swiftly, such as gas, solar and wind power, are likely to be more appropriate for meeting South Africa’s future needs.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2018
- Authors: Kosiorek, Sebastian
- Date: 2018
- Subjects: Electric power consumption -- South Africa , Electric power distribution -- South Africa , Electric power production -- South Africa , Electric power failures -- South Africa , Electric utilities -- Law and legislation -- South Africa , Autoregression (Statistics) , Renewable energy sources -- South Africa , Energy policy -- South Africa , Integrated Resource Plan
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/62472 , vital:28196
- Description: A key economic issue for government is the ability to effectively match electricity supply to electricity demand, because of the substantial economic losses in the case of where there is too little supply, or the waste of scarce resources where there is too much supply. In the case of South Africa, this issue, the importance of which was highlighted by the power shortages and associated “rolling blackouts” experience in 2008, has led to the creation of the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) as a means to decide how energy policy will be developed. Recently, however, the IRP 2010 and its subsequent 2013 and 2016 (draft) updates have been criticised as being too optimistic in regards to their projections of economic growth and electricity demand, making the recommendations in these documents to be flawed. Using monthly data from January 1990 to May 2017, together with Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing for cointegration, this paper measures changes in the elasticity of electricity demand as a result of the massive price hikes over the past decade. Thereafter, the implications of changed electricity as well as possibly lower Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in the future for forecasts of possible future demand for electricity are examined. From these revised forecasts, it is possible to make appropriate recommendations in regards to electricity supply policy for South Africa including what possible energy mix is needed as well as the requirements for creating new supply to meet possible future demand. It is concluded that future electricity demand is likely to be much lower than forecast in the IRP 2010 and IRP 2013 documents. The degree of uncertainty in electricity demand growth suggests that large-scale increases in supply capacity taking years to construct, such as coal or nuclear, should be avoided. Small, incremental increases in supply that are able to come on stream swiftly, such as gas, solar and wind power, are likely to be more appropriate for meeting South Africa’s future needs.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2018
Regional value chains and development integration in the SADC Region: the case of the pharmaceutical industry
- Authors: Faydherbe, Sean
- Date: 2018
- Subjects: Pharmaceutical industry -- Africa, Southern , Southern African Development Community , Africa, Southern -- Economic integration , Regional value chains (RVCs) , Global value chains (GVCs)
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/62906 , vital:28309
- Description: This thesis investigates how regional value chains (RVCs) can be used to further development integration in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region with a focus on the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry. The study is motivated by the apparent lack of attention given to the development of the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry in Southern Africa, the region’s high disease burden and the identification of the industry as economically and socially important by the SADC (2015) Industrialisation Strategy and Roadmap and the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) (2017a) Industrial Policy Action Plan (IPAP). At the same time, South Africa and other countries in the region are exploring alternative approaches to regional integration, given the failure or stagnation of numerous formal integration arrangements throughout Africa, which have often lead to polarised rather than balanced development. This thesis argues that the development of RVCs within SADC may be an effective tool for development integration in the region, particularly in sectors such as pharmaceuticals. The study employs a value chain framework for the analysis and discusses development integration options, drawing on the East Asian experience with RVCs and on case studies involving India in the case of the pharmaceutical industry. It provides a sector profile of the industry in South Africa, due to its dominant status in the region, and also of Zimbabwe, due to that country’s potential to become a pharmaceutical industry leader in the region once again. The thesis first explores the important theoretical aspects underlying value chain analysis, namely governance and upgrading, while also outlining the rise of global value chains (GVCs). It analyses the complex relationships between RVCs and GVCs, and RVCs and regional integration. From this it concludes that RVCs are a stepping stone to participation in GVCs and that RVCs should be promoted within a development integration framework through strong regional cooperation. Value chain analysis is applied to the entire pharmaceutical manufacturing industry with a focus on SADC. The thesis examines how the sector is evolving with manufacturing multinational corporations (MNCs) outsourcing production and setting up centres of excellence in regional production hubs. The study argues that with the application of recommended policies, RVCs in sectors such as pharmaceutical manufacturing may provide a tool for achieving balanced development in the region. However, the study also finds that the pharmaceutical industry in SADC lags a long way behind the rest of the world and that many countries and firms will need to begin at the bottom of the value chain, with formulation, in order to contribute to the development of RVCs. The thesis concludes with recommendations on what policies are needed to foster the growth and development of pharmaceutical RVCs in the SADC region. These include strengthening public procurement, providing incentives for investment into the industry, incremental production and incremental export volumes, as well as certainty and predictability around the regulatory and business environment. Further, policy should aim to construct synergies and linkages on the ground between health systems and industrial developments; regulate service links important to pharmaceutical manufacturing; develop a coherent regional policy agenda; remove unnecessary non-tariff barriers to trade in the region and, in line with development integration, implement trade policy along with trade infrastructure that is efficient and includes airports, rail, roads and ports, as well as effective access to the internet.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2018
- Authors: Faydherbe, Sean
- Date: 2018
- Subjects: Pharmaceutical industry -- Africa, Southern , Southern African Development Community , Africa, Southern -- Economic integration , Regional value chains (RVCs) , Global value chains (GVCs)
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/62906 , vital:28309
- Description: This thesis investigates how regional value chains (RVCs) can be used to further development integration in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region with a focus on the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry. The study is motivated by the apparent lack of attention given to the development of the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry in Southern Africa, the region’s high disease burden and the identification of the industry as economically and socially important by the SADC (2015) Industrialisation Strategy and Roadmap and the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) (2017a) Industrial Policy Action Plan (IPAP). At the same time, South Africa and other countries in the region are exploring alternative approaches to regional integration, given the failure or stagnation of numerous formal integration arrangements throughout Africa, which have often lead to polarised rather than balanced development. This thesis argues that the development of RVCs within SADC may be an effective tool for development integration in the region, particularly in sectors such as pharmaceuticals. The study employs a value chain framework for the analysis and discusses development integration options, drawing on the East Asian experience with RVCs and on case studies involving India in the case of the pharmaceutical industry. It provides a sector profile of the industry in South Africa, due to its dominant status in the region, and also of Zimbabwe, due to that country’s potential to become a pharmaceutical industry leader in the region once again. The thesis first explores the important theoretical aspects underlying value chain analysis, namely governance and upgrading, while also outlining the rise of global value chains (GVCs). It analyses the complex relationships between RVCs and GVCs, and RVCs and regional integration. From this it concludes that RVCs are a stepping stone to participation in GVCs and that RVCs should be promoted within a development integration framework through strong regional cooperation. Value chain analysis is applied to the entire pharmaceutical manufacturing industry with a focus on SADC. The thesis examines how the sector is evolving with manufacturing multinational corporations (MNCs) outsourcing production and setting up centres of excellence in regional production hubs. The study argues that with the application of recommended policies, RVCs in sectors such as pharmaceutical manufacturing may provide a tool for achieving balanced development in the region. However, the study also finds that the pharmaceutical industry in SADC lags a long way behind the rest of the world and that many countries and firms will need to begin at the bottom of the value chain, with formulation, in order to contribute to the development of RVCs. The thesis concludes with recommendations on what policies are needed to foster the growth and development of pharmaceutical RVCs in the SADC region. These include strengthening public procurement, providing incentives for investment into the industry, incremental production and incremental export volumes, as well as certainty and predictability around the regulatory and business environment. Further, policy should aim to construct synergies and linkages on the ground between health systems and industrial developments; regulate service links important to pharmaceutical manufacturing; develop a coherent regional policy agenda; remove unnecessary non-tariff barriers to trade in the region and, in line with development integration, implement trade policy along with trade infrastructure that is efficient and includes airports, rail, roads and ports, as well as effective access to the internet.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2018
Suicide and the South African business cycle: a time series approach, 2006-2015
- Authors: Pitot, Amaury
- Date: 2018
- Subjects: Suicide -- South Africa , Business cycles -- South Africa , Autoregression (Statistics) , Divorce -- South Africa , AutoRegressive Distributed Lagged model (ARDL)
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/62286 , vital:28150
- Description: Suicide is a major public health issue and imposes substantial economic cost on society every year. For example, the World Health Organisation has estimated that there are over one million completed suicides every year, of which about 75% occur in middle and low income countries. In South Africa, suicide is one of the leading causes of non-natural death, but remains under-researched from an economic point of view due to limited data availability. Using monthly data for the period 2006-2015, this study explores whether there is a relationship between suicide and the South African business cycle. This is further broken down to examine how, if at all, this relationship with the business cycle differs across age-, gender-, and racial groups. The primary source of data for suicide and demographic groups were obtained from Statistics South Africa’s Mortality and Causes of Death Data from Death Notification released since 2006. The coincident indicator was used as a proxy for the business cycle as it represents the business cycle in real time. Using an autoregressive distributed lagged model (ARDL), a long run relationship was established with suicide being a function of the coincident indicator, divorce and fertility rate. The findings of this paper show that the overall suicide rate moves with the South African business cycle (i.e. pro-cyclical relationship) in the long run. This relationship holds for males, the black population group and the 15-29 and 30-44 age categories. In addition, the divorce rate had a positive and significant relationship with the overall suicide rate, as well as suicide among the black population group and for the 30-44 age category, whereas fertility rates had no significant relationship with suicide.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2018
- Authors: Pitot, Amaury
- Date: 2018
- Subjects: Suicide -- South Africa , Business cycles -- South Africa , Autoregression (Statistics) , Divorce -- South Africa , AutoRegressive Distributed Lagged model (ARDL)
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/62286 , vital:28150
- Description: Suicide is a major public health issue and imposes substantial economic cost on society every year. For example, the World Health Organisation has estimated that there are over one million completed suicides every year, of which about 75% occur in middle and low income countries. In South Africa, suicide is one of the leading causes of non-natural death, but remains under-researched from an economic point of view due to limited data availability. Using monthly data for the period 2006-2015, this study explores whether there is a relationship between suicide and the South African business cycle. This is further broken down to examine how, if at all, this relationship with the business cycle differs across age-, gender-, and racial groups. The primary source of data for suicide and demographic groups were obtained from Statistics South Africa’s Mortality and Causes of Death Data from Death Notification released since 2006. The coincident indicator was used as a proxy for the business cycle as it represents the business cycle in real time. Using an autoregressive distributed lagged model (ARDL), a long run relationship was established with suicide being a function of the coincident indicator, divorce and fertility rate. The findings of this paper show that the overall suicide rate moves with the South African business cycle (i.e. pro-cyclical relationship) in the long run. This relationship holds for males, the black population group and the 15-29 and 30-44 age categories. In addition, the divorce rate had a positive and significant relationship with the overall suicide rate, as well as suicide among the black population group and for the 30-44 age category, whereas fertility rates had no significant relationship with suicide.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2018
The fourth industrial revolution and human capital development
- Authors: Goldschmidt, Kyle
- Date: 2018
- Subjects: Technological innovations -- Economic aspects , Human capital , Intellectual capital , Economic development , Economic development -- Effect of education on , Fourth industrial revolution
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/62483 , vital:28197
- Description: The focus of the Fourth Industrial Revolution has been on its implications on Human Capital and its need to develop “21st-Century Skills" through education to ensure future labour and capital complementarity. Human Capital combined with 21st-Century Skills, it is claimed, can together generate economic growth, jobs and propel an economy into the next Industrial Revolution. However, Schwab’s (2016) concept of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, make no distinction between the Average Worker and the Knowledge Elite and their relationship to each other and successful economic growth. The different nature of these skills is absent in the literature to date. A critical analysis of literature will be used to examine Schwab’s (2016) claim of a Fourth Industrial Revolution and assess how the Average Worker and the Knowledge Elite relate to the Fourth Industrial Revolution and 21st-Century Skills. The evidence is provided on how both the Average Worker and the Knowledge Elite are key contributors to economic growth and will be important in the Fourth Industrial Revolution.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2018
- Authors: Goldschmidt, Kyle
- Date: 2018
- Subjects: Technological innovations -- Economic aspects , Human capital , Intellectual capital , Economic development , Economic development -- Effect of education on , Fourth industrial revolution
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/62483 , vital:28197
- Description: The focus of the Fourth Industrial Revolution has been on its implications on Human Capital and its need to develop “21st-Century Skills" through education to ensure future labour and capital complementarity. Human Capital combined with 21st-Century Skills, it is claimed, can together generate economic growth, jobs and propel an economy into the next Industrial Revolution. However, Schwab’s (2016) concept of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, make no distinction between the Average Worker and the Knowledge Elite and their relationship to each other and successful economic growth. The different nature of these skills is absent in the literature to date. A critical analysis of literature will be used to examine Schwab’s (2016) claim of a Fourth Industrial Revolution and assess how the Average Worker and the Knowledge Elite relate to the Fourth Industrial Revolution and 21st-Century Skills. The evidence is provided on how both the Average Worker and the Knowledge Elite are key contributors to economic growth and will be important in the Fourth Industrial Revolution.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2018
The impact of the cultural and creative industries on the economic growth and development of small cities and towns - guidelines for creating a regional cultural policy
- Authors: Ndhlovu, Raymond
- Date: 2018
- Subjects: Cultural industries -- South Africa , Cultural industries -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , Cultural policy , South Africa -- Economic conditions , Economic development -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , South Africa. Department of Arts and Culture , Standard Bank National Arts Festival
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/61524 , vital:28032
- Description: The arts and cultural sector has come under even more financial strain than it previously was, as it has to compete with other sectors of the economy for the very limited public funding that is available. It is in this context that the economic impact, and the role, of the arts and cultural sector towards advancing economic growth and development, needs be examined. This thesis investigates the potential for the positive impact of the cultural and creative industries (CCIs) on growth and development of small cities and towns. Furthermore, it also provides guidelines for the development of regional cultural policy in small cities and towns. The CCIs have also been touted as a catalyst for economic growth and economic development, hence the global rise in their interest. For example, the CCIs have been used to redevelop and revive urban areas that have been rundown. CCIs, however, tend to develop in clusters, and additionally, they cluster around large cities. However, the lack of reliance of some CCIs on long supply chains or high-technology inputs may make them suitable candidates for investment in small cities and towns. Additionally, the link that small cities and towns have with rural and isolated areas makes them potential engines for driving growth, development, as well as employment creation for these areas, given their decline as a result of the transition from the traditional agricultural economy, to the knowledge economy. As CCIs have the propensity to drive government’s macroeconomic objectives such as efficiency, equity, economic growth and job creation, it is necessary to develop cultural policy that regards this. The tendency of CCIs to cluster and develop around large cities inevitably means that very little research into cultural policy directed towards regions without large cities and towns has been done. By the same token, very little research has also been conducted on how to craft cultural policy for such areas. In order then, for cultural policy for regions without large cities and towns to be developed, it is necessary to investigate, and provide, guidelines on, how to develop cultural policy for such regions. As a case study, the Sarah Baartman District Municipality (SBDM) in the Eastern Cape was chosen. The SBDM has no large cities and towns, but the District Municipality has identified the CCIs as a potential growth sector, and is in the process of developing a regional cultural policy. The area also includes Grahamstown, which not only hosts the National Arts Festival, which is the largest arts event of its type in Africa, but is also piloting the “Creative City” project in South Africa. An audit and mapping study was conducted on the CCIs in the SBDM; this was based on a national mapping study commissioned by the Department of Arts and Culture. Further internet searches, as well as consultations with the provincial and regional Department of Arts of Culture, coupled with snowball sampling, also aided in the identification of CCIs, and consequently, the “creative hotspots” within the SBDM. Two random samples of stakeholders were chosen; the CCI owners and practitioners, as well as key stakeholders such as government officials, and interviews conducted with both groups, in order to get a first-hand perspective on the operations, activities, challenges, and opportunities that are faced by the CCIs. The study found that there were at least 441 CCIs in the SBDM, with two local municipalities (Dr. Beyers Naude and Makana) hosting the largest share of these (145 and 113 CCIs in each local municipality respectively), which indicates some support for the ‘clustering’ theory. It was also found that the local municipalities that had the largest number of CCIs also experienced better socio-economic welfare. Furthermore, based on the UNESCO Framework for Cultural Statistics (FCS) domains, the Visual Arts and Crafts; Information, Books and Press; and, Cultural Heritage domains were the largest domains represented in the SBDM. It was concluded that cultural policy that is developed, ought to take advantage of, and build on, these existing clusters, as well as the domains that are most prevalent in the region. To demonstrate the impact of cultural festivals on growth and development, a socio-economic impact study was undertaken at the 2016 National Arts Festival (NAF) in Grahamstown. Face to interviews, as well as self-completion questionnaires were used, with respondents at different venues, attending a variety of shows, and across a range of demographics, being interviewed, in order to get a representative sample of Festival attendees. It was found that the economic impact of the 2016 NAF on the city of Grahamstown was R94.4 million. Over and above the economic value of the NAF, it was also found that there were nonmarket benefits (social and intrinsic values) of the NAF, that included audience development, education of the arts and culture, social cohesion, and community development. The inability to directly track and measure social and intrinsic values proved to be a challenge. The study concluded that in order for successful cultural policy to be developed in regions without large cities and towns, it is first necessary to carry out a study to identify what resources are present, and where they are. Locating resources enables cluster identification - as clusters encourage comparative and competitive advantage, it is worthwhile to invest in areas where there are clusters. Therefore, in the allocation of scarce public funds, cultural policy needs to guide investment in to areas where established clusters indicate existing comparative advantage. In terms of equity and transformation, it is also necessary to evaluate labour markets and ownership patterns when developing cultural policy. Beyond the analysis of physical and human resources, the study also found that a crucial step towards developing successful cultural policy is identification of opportunities and challenges faced by the practitioners themselves; the policy ought to capitalise on the opportunities, whilst attempting to correct the challenges faced. Also of importance is aligning the proposed policy and its objectives with regional, provincial and national aims and objectives. Finally, it is important to include a monitoring and evaluation tool that will evaluate the performance of the policy against its stated aims and objectives.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2018
- Authors: Ndhlovu, Raymond
- Date: 2018
- Subjects: Cultural industries -- South Africa , Cultural industries -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , Cultural policy , South Africa -- Economic conditions , Economic development -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , South Africa. Department of Arts and Culture , Standard Bank National Arts Festival
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/61524 , vital:28032
- Description: The arts and cultural sector has come under even more financial strain than it previously was, as it has to compete with other sectors of the economy for the very limited public funding that is available. It is in this context that the economic impact, and the role, of the arts and cultural sector towards advancing economic growth and development, needs be examined. This thesis investigates the potential for the positive impact of the cultural and creative industries (CCIs) on growth and development of small cities and towns. Furthermore, it also provides guidelines for the development of regional cultural policy in small cities and towns. The CCIs have also been touted as a catalyst for economic growth and economic development, hence the global rise in their interest. For example, the CCIs have been used to redevelop and revive urban areas that have been rundown. CCIs, however, tend to develop in clusters, and additionally, they cluster around large cities. However, the lack of reliance of some CCIs on long supply chains or high-technology inputs may make them suitable candidates for investment in small cities and towns. Additionally, the link that small cities and towns have with rural and isolated areas makes them potential engines for driving growth, development, as well as employment creation for these areas, given their decline as a result of the transition from the traditional agricultural economy, to the knowledge economy. As CCIs have the propensity to drive government’s macroeconomic objectives such as efficiency, equity, economic growth and job creation, it is necessary to develop cultural policy that regards this. The tendency of CCIs to cluster and develop around large cities inevitably means that very little research into cultural policy directed towards regions without large cities and towns has been done. By the same token, very little research has also been conducted on how to craft cultural policy for such areas. In order then, for cultural policy for regions without large cities and towns to be developed, it is necessary to investigate, and provide, guidelines on, how to develop cultural policy for such regions. As a case study, the Sarah Baartman District Municipality (SBDM) in the Eastern Cape was chosen. The SBDM has no large cities and towns, but the District Municipality has identified the CCIs as a potential growth sector, and is in the process of developing a regional cultural policy. The area also includes Grahamstown, which not only hosts the National Arts Festival, which is the largest arts event of its type in Africa, but is also piloting the “Creative City” project in South Africa. An audit and mapping study was conducted on the CCIs in the SBDM; this was based on a national mapping study commissioned by the Department of Arts and Culture. Further internet searches, as well as consultations with the provincial and regional Department of Arts of Culture, coupled with snowball sampling, also aided in the identification of CCIs, and consequently, the “creative hotspots” within the SBDM. Two random samples of stakeholders were chosen; the CCI owners and practitioners, as well as key stakeholders such as government officials, and interviews conducted with both groups, in order to get a first-hand perspective on the operations, activities, challenges, and opportunities that are faced by the CCIs. The study found that there were at least 441 CCIs in the SBDM, with two local municipalities (Dr. Beyers Naude and Makana) hosting the largest share of these (145 and 113 CCIs in each local municipality respectively), which indicates some support for the ‘clustering’ theory. It was also found that the local municipalities that had the largest number of CCIs also experienced better socio-economic welfare. Furthermore, based on the UNESCO Framework for Cultural Statistics (FCS) domains, the Visual Arts and Crafts; Information, Books and Press; and, Cultural Heritage domains were the largest domains represented in the SBDM. It was concluded that cultural policy that is developed, ought to take advantage of, and build on, these existing clusters, as well as the domains that are most prevalent in the region. To demonstrate the impact of cultural festivals on growth and development, a socio-economic impact study was undertaken at the 2016 National Arts Festival (NAF) in Grahamstown. Face to interviews, as well as self-completion questionnaires were used, with respondents at different venues, attending a variety of shows, and across a range of demographics, being interviewed, in order to get a representative sample of Festival attendees. It was found that the economic impact of the 2016 NAF on the city of Grahamstown was R94.4 million. Over and above the economic value of the NAF, it was also found that there were nonmarket benefits (social and intrinsic values) of the NAF, that included audience development, education of the arts and culture, social cohesion, and community development. The inability to directly track and measure social and intrinsic values proved to be a challenge. The study concluded that in order for successful cultural policy to be developed in regions without large cities and towns, it is first necessary to carry out a study to identify what resources are present, and where they are. Locating resources enables cluster identification - as clusters encourage comparative and competitive advantage, it is worthwhile to invest in areas where there are clusters. Therefore, in the allocation of scarce public funds, cultural policy needs to guide investment in to areas where established clusters indicate existing comparative advantage. In terms of equity and transformation, it is also necessary to evaluate labour markets and ownership patterns when developing cultural policy. Beyond the analysis of physical and human resources, the study also found that a crucial step towards developing successful cultural policy is identification of opportunities and challenges faced by the practitioners themselves; the policy ought to capitalise on the opportunities, whilst attempting to correct the challenges faced. Also of importance is aligning the proposed policy and its objectives with regional, provincial and national aims and objectives. Finally, it is important to include a monitoring and evaluation tool that will evaluate the performance of the policy against its stated aims and objectives.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2018
A water footprint assessment of dryland pasture based dairy enterprise in the Eastern Cape: a case study
- Authors: Jenje, Paige
- Date: 2017
- Subjects: Water supply, Agricultural -- South Africa , Water supply, Agricultural -- Government policy -- South Africa , Water consumption -- Measurement -- South Africa , Water demand management -- South Africa , Water-supply -- Accounting -- South Africa , Cattle -- Water requirements -- South Africa -- Cast studies
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/5362 , vital:20917
- Description: Water scarcity continues to pose a threat to South Africa, with severe water scarcity predicted within the next fifty years. As a result, national interest has been sparked over the development of market based water resource allocation strategies to alleviate pressures on South Africa's freshwater resources, and ensure compliance with the National Water Act. Agriculture is the largest water user internationally and within South Africa, highlighting the importance of improving the water use efficiency within the industry. This study performed a full water footprint assessment (WFA) of a dryland pasture based dairy enterprise in the Eastern Cape. Following the guidelines of the WFA, this study calculated the blue, green and grey water footprints of dryland pasture based dairy production from crop- to-farm gate by assessing the water footprints of pasture production, bought in feed and concentrates, drinking water and servicing water processes over a period of five years. Following the accounting the of the water footprint, economic and environmental sustainability indicators were used along with the incorporation of the Water Risk Filter tool. This revealed that the case study farm was operating efficiently with the enterprise's highest water related risk being governmental regulation. Water footprint accounting results highlighted that green water was largest contributor to the overall water footprint of over 80%, and grey water contributed the least to the water footprint of dryland pasture based dairy production. Economic productivity results indicated that milk production is highly correlated with annual rainfall due to the breeding strategy undertaken by the farm. Results also indicated little correlation between the monthly water footprint and milk production, with the majority of the enterprise's milk production occurring in the last quarter regardless of the water footprint. The study demonstrated the relationship between the water footprint and economic land and water productivity, along with the value of milk to costs ratio which indicated that approximately R1.00 worth of costs generates between R1.80 and R2.06 value of milk. The sustainability indicators suggested that the farm's management of its effluent dam requires attention to meet the Department of Water and Sanitations effluent waste quality guidelines. The overall analysis of the water footprint suggested that the highest water related risk to dryland dairy production was regulatory risk. This risk suggests that the government cannot be relied upon for the management of freshwater resources within the study area, leaving the onus on the individual dairy farmers. As such, farmers should utilise the water footprint to formulate water stewardship programmes which have the potential to influence the regulation and protection of freshwater resources.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2017
- Authors: Jenje, Paige
- Date: 2017
- Subjects: Water supply, Agricultural -- South Africa , Water supply, Agricultural -- Government policy -- South Africa , Water consumption -- Measurement -- South Africa , Water demand management -- South Africa , Water-supply -- Accounting -- South Africa , Cattle -- Water requirements -- South Africa -- Cast studies
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/5362 , vital:20917
- Description: Water scarcity continues to pose a threat to South Africa, with severe water scarcity predicted within the next fifty years. As a result, national interest has been sparked over the development of market based water resource allocation strategies to alleviate pressures on South Africa's freshwater resources, and ensure compliance with the National Water Act. Agriculture is the largest water user internationally and within South Africa, highlighting the importance of improving the water use efficiency within the industry. This study performed a full water footprint assessment (WFA) of a dryland pasture based dairy enterprise in the Eastern Cape. Following the guidelines of the WFA, this study calculated the blue, green and grey water footprints of dryland pasture based dairy production from crop- to-farm gate by assessing the water footprints of pasture production, bought in feed and concentrates, drinking water and servicing water processes over a period of five years. Following the accounting the of the water footprint, economic and environmental sustainability indicators were used along with the incorporation of the Water Risk Filter tool. This revealed that the case study farm was operating efficiently with the enterprise's highest water related risk being governmental regulation. Water footprint accounting results highlighted that green water was largest contributor to the overall water footprint of over 80%, and grey water contributed the least to the water footprint of dryland pasture based dairy production. Economic productivity results indicated that milk production is highly correlated with annual rainfall due to the breeding strategy undertaken by the farm. Results also indicated little correlation between the monthly water footprint and milk production, with the majority of the enterprise's milk production occurring in the last quarter regardless of the water footprint. The study demonstrated the relationship between the water footprint and economic land and water productivity, along with the value of milk to costs ratio which indicated that approximately R1.00 worth of costs generates between R1.80 and R2.06 value of milk. The sustainability indicators suggested that the farm's management of its effluent dam requires attention to meet the Department of Water and Sanitations effluent waste quality guidelines. The overall analysis of the water footprint suggested that the highest water related risk to dryland dairy production was regulatory risk. This risk suggests that the government cannot be relied upon for the management of freshwater resources within the study area, leaving the onus on the individual dairy farmers. As such, farmers should utilise the water footprint to formulate water stewardship programmes which have the potential to influence the regulation and protection of freshwater resources.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2017
Agricultural-based commodity chains and development: the case of the tobacco sector in Zimbabwe
- Authors: Thring, Stephen Richard
- Date: 2017
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MSocSc
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/5337 , vital:20814
- Description: This thesis examines the nature of governance in the Zimbabwean tobacco value chain and what upgrading implications this has for participants at the lower end of the value chain, with a particular focus on smallholder tobacco growers. The nature of governance and upgrading opportunities will provide further implications for broader economic development in Zimbabwe. Value chain analysis was the over-arching method, adopting a mixed methods approach of both quantitative and qualitative data analysis. Data attained from the Tobacco and Industry Marketing Board (TIMB) was used to construct a Zimbabwean tobacco profile. This information was used to construct a simple Global Value Chain (GVC) framework in order to obtain an understanding of the Zimbabwean tobacco value chain. Information was gathered at the top end of the value chain via documents and data from British American Tobacco (BAT) and information was gathered at the middle and lower end of the value chain through interviews. It was found that the Zimbabwean tobacco value chain is characterised by two types of governance: modular and hierarchy. Modular governance existed where the value chain was disjointed by the leaf merchant and hierarchy governance existed where cigarette manufacturers have vertically integrated themselves backwards into the tobacco growing segment. It was found that contract lines offer smallholder tobacco growers’ financial and technical support that would otherwise be difficult to attain. This increased the likelihood for smallholder tobacco growers to produce a high quality crop that met Good Agricultural Practices (GAP) and other compliancy requirements; therefore achieving product and process upgrading. However, the environmental impact of tobacco growing through deforestation and the possibility of lead cigarette manufacturers relocating their operations to a different geographical location (as is the nature of GVCs) threatens the sustainability of Zimbabwe’s tobacco industry. Despite these issues it was argued that the tobacco value chain could assist Zimbabwe’s economy in diversifying away from simple tobacco production towards valueadding tobacco sectors, such as processing, by-product processing and cigarette manufacturing.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2017
- Authors: Thring, Stephen Richard
- Date: 2017
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MSocSc
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/5337 , vital:20814
- Description: This thesis examines the nature of governance in the Zimbabwean tobacco value chain and what upgrading implications this has for participants at the lower end of the value chain, with a particular focus on smallholder tobacco growers. The nature of governance and upgrading opportunities will provide further implications for broader economic development in Zimbabwe. Value chain analysis was the over-arching method, adopting a mixed methods approach of both quantitative and qualitative data analysis. Data attained from the Tobacco and Industry Marketing Board (TIMB) was used to construct a Zimbabwean tobacco profile. This information was used to construct a simple Global Value Chain (GVC) framework in order to obtain an understanding of the Zimbabwean tobacco value chain. Information was gathered at the top end of the value chain via documents and data from British American Tobacco (BAT) and information was gathered at the middle and lower end of the value chain through interviews. It was found that the Zimbabwean tobacco value chain is characterised by two types of governance: modular and hierarchy. Modular governance existed where the value chain was disjointed by the leaf merchant and hierarchy governance existed where cigarette manufacturers have vertically integrated themselves backwards into the tobacco growing segment. It was found that contract lines offer smallholder tobacco growers’ financial and technical support that would otherwise be difficult to attain. This increased the likelihood for smallholder tobacco growers to produce a high quality crop that met Good Agricultural Practices (GAP) and other compliancy requirements; therefore achieving product and process upgrading. However, the environmental impact of tobacco growing through deforestation and the possibility of lead cigarette manufacturers relocating their operations to a different geographical location (as is the nature of GVCs) threatens the sustainability of Zimbabwe’s tobacco industry. Despite these issues it was argued that the tobacco value chain could assist Zimbabwe’s economy in diversifying away from simple tobacco production towards valueadding tobacco sectors, such as processing, by-product processing and cigarette manufacturing.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2017
An analysis of the impact of financialization on commodity markets
- Authors: Ndawona, Takudzwa Maitaishe
- Date: 2017
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/7113 , vital:21218
- Description: An unprecedented increase in real commodity prices from 2002-2011 fuelled an intense debate as to the causes of the steep rise in prices and its possible implications for producers and consumers. On the one hand, the prolonged and dramatic rise in almost all commodity prices is attributed to growing demand from emerging market economies, supply shocks such as adverse weather conditions, export bans as well as other macroeconomic factors. Collectively these are known as the fundamental (demand and supply) factors. On the other hand, there is a growing body of evidence that suggests these fundamental factors alone are not sufficient enough to explain recent commodity price developments. It is noted that alongside changes in the fundamental factors, there was a major shift in trading activities on commodity derivative markets related to the increasing presence of financial investors, institutional investors and hedge funds. This had important effects, it is argued, on the microstructure of these markets and on price dynamics in a process termed “fmancialization”. Most of the empirical literature covers the period of rising commodity prices from 20022011. This study seeks to add to the existing literature by examining, in addition, the impact of financialization when commodity prices were falling from 2011-2015. Whereas the literature focuses mainly on the rise of agricultural commodity prices, the focus of this study is on metals, oil and bulk commodities (coal and iron ore). Two techniques are employed, namely the calculation of rolling correlations for futures and spot returns. Granger causality tests are then performed to examine the relationships between futures and spot prices. Rolling return correlations are calculated for i) different exchange- traded commodities and ii) exchange-traded commodities and bulk commodities not traded on exchanges. This is done to establish whether the increased correlations between different commodities found in the literature still hold now that commodity prices across all categories are falling. Granger causality tests are used in order to establish the link between the futures prices and spot prices both during the upswing period (2002-2011) and downswing period (2011-2015). It is found that rapidly growing indexed-based investment in commodity markets (financialization) during the upswing period is concurrent with increasingly correlated returns on the prices of unrelated commodities in both the futures and spot markets. These correlations decline during the period of falling commodity prices (2011-2015). This was a period in which the total amount of commodity assets under management fell sharply. This supports the a priori expectation that if the increased correlations of previously seemingly correlated and unrelated commodities during the upswing had been driven by financialization, the correlation would decline in the downturn. Granger causality results reveal statistically significant evidence of futures prices (returns) driving spot prices (returns) during the financialization period. However, post-financialization there is a shift to more bidirectional relationships. The study therefore concludes that, in addition to changing fundamental and macroeconomic factors, the financialization of commodity markets further drove the excessive and volatile price levels in commodity markets from 2002 to 2011.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2017
- Authors: Ndawona, Takudzwa Maitaishe
- Date: 2017
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/7113 , vital:21218
- Description: An unprecedented increase in real commodity prices from 2002-2011 fuelled an intense debate as to the causes of the steep rise in prices and its possible implications for producers and consumers. On the one hand, the prolonged and dramatic rise in almost all commodity prices is attributed to growing demand from emerging market economies, supply shocks such as adverse weather conditions, export bans as well as other macroeconomic factors. Collectively these are known as the fundamental (demand and supply) factors. On the other hand, there is a growing body of evidence that suggests these fundamental factors alone are not sufficient enough to explain recent commodity price developments. It is noted that alongside changes in the fundamental factors, there was a major shift in trading activities on commodity derivative markets related to the increasing presence of financial investors, institutional investors and hedge funds. This had important effects, it is argued, on the microstructure of these markets and on price dynamics in a process termed “fmancialization”. Most of the empirical literature covers the period of rising commodity prices from 20022011. This study seeks to add to the existing literature by examining, in addition, the impact of financialization when commodity prices were falling from 2011-2015. Whereas the literature focuses mainly on the rise of agricultural commodity prices, the focus of this study is on metals, oil and bulk commodities (coal and iron ore). Two techniques are employed, namely the calculation of rolling correlations for futures and spot returns. Granger causality tests are then performed to examine the relationships between futures and spot prices. Rolling return correlations are calculated for i) different exchange- traded commodities and ii) exchange-traded commodities and bulk commodities not traded on exchanges. This is done to establish whether the increased correlations between different commodities found in the literature still hold now that commodity prices across all categories are falling. Granger causality tests are used in order to establish the link between the futures prices and spot prices both during the upswing period (2002-2011) and downswing period (2011-2015). It is found that rapidly growing indexed-based investment in commodity markets (financialization) during the upswing period is concurrent with increasingly correlated returns on the prices of unrelated commodities in both the futures and spot markets. These correlations decline during the period of falling commodity prices (2011-2015). This was a period in which the total amount of commodity assets under management fell sharply. This supports the a priori expectation that if the increased correlations of previously seemingly correlated and unrelated commodities during the upswing had been driven by financialization, the correlation would decline in the downturn. Granger causality results reveal statistically significant evidence of futures prices (returns) driving spot prices (returns) during the financialization period. However, post-financialization there is a shift to more bidirectional relationships. The study therefore concludes that, in addition to changing fundamental and macroeconomic factors, the financialization of commodity markets further drove the excessive and volatile price levels in commodity markets from 2002 to 2011.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2017
Carbon credit restoration projects in the Eastern Cape province of South Africa: considerations for sustainable local economic development
- Authors: Polak, James Samuel
- Date: 2017
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/8069 , vital:21349
- Description: Although global climate change has been identified as a serious global economic, social, and environmental threat to society, national governments have been slow to respond on a global scale. Environmental economic theory offers market-based solutions to address climate change efficiently through carbon control regimes, such as carbon taxation and cap-and-trade policy. A major political milestone was reached when an international agreement entered into force in 2008, known the Kyoto Protocol, which incorporated a market-based solution to address climate change on a global scale. This allowed a global market for emissions to form through the Clean Development Mechanism. Although the Kyoto Protocol aimed to address a global issue on a global scale through a single global market for emissions, fragmented sovereign cap-and-trade schemes have since emerged in the form of national and regional emission markets, commonly referred to as carbon markets. The Clean Development Mechanism offered the opportunity to generate carbon credits through carbon offset projects, such as carbon restoration projects. Although the Kyoto Protocol did not achieve the objective of forming an internationally accepted global carbon control regime, it seems to have set a trend of including offset programs in newly emerging carbon control regimes, such as South Africa’s proposed carbon tax. This study set out to assess the extent to which carbon control regimes are enabling sustainable local economic development, based on carbon restoration projects in the Eastern Cape province of South Africa using Portulacaria afra, commonly known as spekboom. As a starting point, this study assessed the current state of the international carbon markets using significant international cap-and-trade based markets as examples. Based on Newell et al.’s (2013) selection of significant carbon markets and data availability, the United States’ Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative and the European Union’s Emission Trading Scheme were selected. Historical, current and forecasted supply and demand data were gathered from Thomson Reuters’ Point Carbon research division. Further, historical futures and spot market price and volume data were gathered from the markets to compare how prices have fared over time. The Clean Development Mechanism’s market for Certified Emission Reduction credits was used for comparative purposes. The markets were found to be systemically oversupplied, leading to systemically low prices. The systemic oversupply in credits provides a limited incentive to initiate carbon offset projects, however, South Africa’s proposed carbon tax may be able to stimulate demand for domestic offset projects. Key success factors established through a comparative literature review on local economic development theory were incorporated into key informant interviews. The results were then analysed through the lens of Connelly’s (2007) model for sustainable development to provide recommendations for sustainable local economic development, regarding carbon restoration projects in the Eastern Cape using P. afra. The following opportunities were identified: the planting of P. afra on degraded land has the potential to mitigate climate change, offer water benefits to the surrounding communities, and promote biodiversity regeneration. There is potential for economic growth through job creation and the economic multiplier effect. Government funding is available and voluntary offset agreements do exist, eliminating a large portion of the cumbersome accreditation requirements. These projects also offer potential for social justice through the government funding requirements which stipulate that youth and women should be given preference for employment, potentially helping to alleviate inequality. The funding further stipulates that employees should be trained in transferable skills, offering potential for capacity building and social capital accumulation through education. These transferable skills include skills geared towards encouraging entrepreneurialism. Corresponding challenges were also found: excessive overgrazing through pastoralism has rendered some land degraded beyond restoration. Opportunists may resort to planting P. afra outside of the subtropical Albany Thicket biome to which it is endemic, leading to potential biodiversity loss rather than gains. Sufficient buy-in is required from private landowners for these projects to be sustainable, however, the projects entail a large opportunity cost to farmers as returns take at least 5 to 6 years. This may render these projects undesirable to most landowners and provides scope for free-riding, should pastoralists not have to bear the full costs of the project and property rights not be enforced through land user agreements. The projects require an exorbitant amount of upfront funding. Cash flow received from the projects does not extend in perpetuity. Requirements for social justice pertain only to government funded projects. A working model, generating and selling carbon credits through land restoration using P. afra, has not yet been established. As it stands, these carbon restoration projects are still highly speculative and carry a significant amount of investment risk, given the high mortality and low growth rates associated with the current planting method. The current systemic oversupply of carbon. credits in the international markets signal that returns from carbon credits are set to be low, at least until the oversupply issues are resolved. Should these challenges be overcome, carbon restoration projects using P. afra may have the potential to bolster sustainable local economic development in the impoverished regions of province as well as provide a locally-driven adaptation and mitigation strategy to address global climate change.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2017
- Authors: Polak, James Samuel
- Date: 2017
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/8069 , vital:21349
- Description: Although global climate change has been identified as a serious global economic, social, and environmental threat to society, national governments have been slow to respond on a global scale. Environmental economic theory offers market-based solutions to address climate change efficiently through carbon control regimes, such as carbon taxation and cap-and-trade policy. A major political milestone was reached when an international agreement entered into force in 2008, known the Kyoto Protocol, which incorporated a market-based solution to address climate change on a global scale. This allowed a global market for emissions to form through the Clean Development Mechanism. Although the Kyoto Protocol aimed to address a global issue on a global scale through a single global market for emissions, fragmented sovereign cap-and-trade schemes have since emerged in the form of national and regional emission markets, commonly referred to as carbon markets. The Clean Development Mechanism offered the opportunity to generate carbon credits through carbon offset projects, such as carbon restoration projects. Although the Kyoto Protocol did not achieve the objective of forming an internationally accepted global carbon control regime, it seems to have set a trend of including offset programs in newly emerging carbon control regimes, such as South Africa’s proposed carbon tax. This study set out to assess the extent to which carbon control regimes are enabling sustainable local economic development, based on carbon restoration projects in the Eastern Cape province of South Africa using Portulacaria afra, commonly known as spekboom. As a starting point, this study assessed the current state of the international carbon markets using significant international cap-and-trade based markets as examples. Based on Newell et al.’s (2013) selection of significant carbon markets and data availability, the United States’ Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative and the European Union’s Emission Trading Scheme were selected. Historical, current and forecasted supply and demand data were gathered from Thomson Reuters’ Point Carbon research division. Further, historical futures and spot market price and volume data were gathered from the markets to compare how prices have fared over time. The Clean Development Mechanism’s market for Certified Emission Reduction credits was used for comparative purposes. The markets were found to be systemically oversupplied, leading to systemically low prices. The systemic oversupply in credits provides a limited incentive to initiate carbon offset projects, however, South Africa’s proposed carbon tax may be able to stimulate demand for domestic offset projects. Key success factors established through a comparative literature review on local economic development theory were incorporated into key informant interviews. The results were then analysed through the lens of Connelly’s (2007) model for sustainable development to provide recommendations for sustainable local economic development, regarding carbon restoration projects in the Eastern Cape using P. afra. The following opportunities were identified: the planting of P. afra on degraded land has the potential to mitigate climate change, offer water benefits to the surrounding communities, and promote biodiversity regeneration. There is potential for economic growth through job creation and the economic multiplier effect. Government funding is available and voluntary offset agreements do exist, eliminating a large portion of the cumbersome accreditation requirements. These projects also offer potential for social justice through the government funding requirements which stipulate that youth and women should be given preference for employment, potentially helping to alleviate inequality. The funding further stipulates that employees should be trained in transferable skills, offering potential for capacity building and social capital accumulation through education. These transferable skills include skills geared towards encouraging entrepreneurialism. Corresponding challenges were also found: excessive overgrazing through pastoralism has rendered some land degraded beyond restoration. Opportunists may resort to planting P. afra outside of the subtropical Albany Thicket biome to which it is endemic, leading to potential biodiversity loss rather than gains. Sufficient buy-in is required from private landowners for these projects to be sustainable, however, the projects entail a large opportunity cost to farmers as returns take at least 5 to 6 years. This may render these projects undesirable to most landowners and provides scope for free-riding, should pastoralists not have to bear the full costs of the project and property rights not be enforced through land user agreements. The projects require an exorbitant amount of upfront funding. Cash flow received from the projects does not extend in perpetuity. Requirements for social justice pertain only to government funded projects. A working model, generating and selling carbon credits through land restoration using P. afra, has not yet been established. As it stands, these carbon restoration projects are still highly speculative and carry a significant amount of investment risk, given the high mortality and low growth rates associated with the current planting method. The current systemic oversupply of carbon. credits in the international markets signal that returns from carbon credits are set to be low, at least until the oversupply issues are resolved. Should these challenges be overcome, carbon restoration projects using P. afra may have the potential to bolster sustainable local economic development in the impoverished regions of province as well as provide a locally-driven adaptation and mitigation strategy to address global climate change.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2017
Credit extension in South Africa: an analysis of the impact of interest rates and income levels on the level of household debt
- Widdop, James Stuart Hailstones
- Authors: Widdop, James Stuart Hailstones
- Date: 2017
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/4988 , vital:20750
- Description: The recent growth in the unsecured lending market and the bankruptcy of African Bank Investments Limited have brought to light concerns regarding credit extension and the level of household indebtedness in South Africa. This study seeks to investigate the relevant aspects of credit extension in both the secured and unsecured lending markets by firstly analysing contemporary literature and then conducting a more formal empirical analysis. A VAR model is estimated to examine the effects household disposable income and interest rates have on the level of household debt in South Africa for the period 1995Q1-2015Q3. The empirical results indicate that there is no significant deterministic relationship between household disposable income and household debt. However, the results show that such a relationship does exist between interest rate and household debt. Finally, impulse response functions obtained from the VAR estimation are examined which indicate that both shocks too household disposable income and interest rates effect the level of household debt, but that this effect returns to equilibrium within six periods.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2017
- Authors: Widdop, James Stuart Hailstones
- Date: 2017
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/4988 , vital:20750
- Description: The recent growth in the unsecured lending market and the bankruptcy of African Bank Investments Limited have brought to light concerns regarding credit extension and the level of household indebtedness in South Africa. This study seeks to investigate the relevant aspects of credit extension in both the secured and unsecured lending markets by firstly analysing contemporary literature and then conducting a more formal empirical analysis. A VAR model is estimated to examine the effects household disposable income and interest rates have on the level of household debt in South Africa for the period 1995Q1-2015Q3. The empirical results indicate that there is no significant deterministic relationship between household disposable income and household debt. However, the results show that such a relationship does exist between interest rate and household debt. Finally, impulse response functions obtained from the VAR estimation are examined which indicate that both shocks too household disposable income and interest rates effect the level of household debt, but that this effect returns to equilibrium within six periods.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2017