An analysis of the long run comovements between financial system development and mining production in South Africa
- Authors: Ajagbe, Stephen Mayowa
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa , Econometric models , Mineral industries -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions , South Africa -- Economic policy , Principal components analysis , Cointegration , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:955 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002689 , Economic development -- South Africa , Econometric models , Mineral industries -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions , South Africa -- Economic policy , Principal components analysis , Cointegration , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates
- Description: This study examines the nature of the relationship which exists between mining sector production and development of the financial systems in South Africa. This is particularly important in that the mining sector is considered to be one of the major contributors to the country’s overall economic growth. South Africa is also considered to have a very well developed financial system, to the point where the dominance of one over the other is difficult to identify. Therefore offering insight into the nature of this relationship will assist policy makers in identifying the most effective policies in order to ensure that the developments within the financial systems impact appropriately on the mining sector, and ultimately on the economy. In addition to using the conventional proxies of financial system development, this study utilises the principal component analysis (PCA) to construct an index for the entire financial system. The multivariate cointegration approach as proposed by Johansen (1988) and Johansen and Juselius (1990) was then used to estimate the relationship between the development of the financial systems and the mining sector production for the period 1988-2008. The study reveals mixed results for different measures of financial system development. Those involving the banking system show that a negative relationship exists between total mining production and total credit extended to the private sector, while liquid liabilities has a positive relationship. Similarly, with the stock market system, mixed results are also obtained which reveal a negative relationship between total mining production and stock market capitalisation, while a positive relationship is found with secondary market turnover. Of all the financial system variables, only that of stock market capitalisation was found to be significant. The result with the financial development index reveals that a significant negative relationship exists between financial system development and total mining sector production. Results on the other variables controlled in the estimation show that positive and significant relationships exist between total mining production and both nominal exchange rate and political stability respectively. Increased mining production therefore takes place in periods of appreciating exchange rates, and similarly in the post-apartheid era. On the other hand, negative relationships were found for both trade openness and inflation control variables. The impulse response and variance decomposition analyses showed that total mining production explains the largest amount of shocks within itself. Overall, the study reveals that the mining sector might not have benefited much from the development in the South African financial system.
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- Date Issued: 2011
The strategic management of intellectual capital : a case study in the banking and financial services sector in Zambia
- Authors: Banda, Japhet Mathias
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Intellectual capital -- Management , Intellectual capital -- Zambia , Banks and banking -- Zambia , Financial services industry -- Management -- Zambia
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1178 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002795 , Intellectual capital -- Management , Intellectual capital -- Zambia , Banks and banking -- Zambia , Financial services industry -- Management -- Zambia
- Description: Fundamental changes in the global economy are changing the basis of organisational competitive advantage. The challenge in attaining a competitive advantage is characterised by factors such as increased competition, market volatility, geographically dispersed operations, customer awareness, raising workforce diversity and stringent regulatory regimes. These factors have driven, and in turn have been driven by, an increasing complexity of products, services and the processes that create value, resulting in changes in the structural and functional dimensions of the organisation. Business executives and academics recognise the shift in value creating assets from the traditional land, labour and capital to intangible assets such as knowledge and information becoming the most important resources an organisation can muster.The combination and integration of intangible assets such as human resources, structural and relational resources has been grouped under the umbrella of intellectual capital. This study comprises of a single descriptive case study analysis to ascertain how intellectual capital is managed strategically to gain a competitive advantage in an organisation in the banking and financial services sector in Zambia. Based on document review and semi-structured interviews, this thesis investigated the extent to which an organisation in the banking and financial services sector in Zambia leveraged intellectual capital to gain competitive advantage. In this study it was found that there is a low level appreciation of the intellectual capital phenomenon as a strategic management tool in the participating organisation. However, the organisation has adopted aspects of intellectual capital and has implemented them successfully accounting for the organisation‘s competitive edge in the market.
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- Date Issued: 2011
Adjustment of commercial banks' interest rates and the effectiveness of monetary policy: evidence from Anglophone West Africa
- Authors: Bangura, Lamin
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Monetary policy -- Africa, West , Banks and banking -- Africa, West , Interest rates -- Africa, West
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:951 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002685 , Monetary policy -- Africa, West , Banks and banking -- Africa, West , Interest rates -- Africa, West
- Description: Most central banks use short-term interest rates as their main instrument of monetary policy. It is assumed that a change in policy rate will influence interest rates set by commercial banks, but this is not usually the case. Commercial banks adjust their interest rates in response to changes in policy rate with lags, which make their interest rates sticky. Stickiness in commercial banks interest rates have been seen as an obstacle to the smooth transmission of monetary policy decisions. Despite the importance of the transmission process, little attention has been given to a systematic measurement of the degree of response of commercial banks‟ interest rates to changes in monetary policy stance in the Anglophone West African countries, specifically within the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) economies. Against this backdrop, this study explores the interest rate adjustment dynamics using monthly interest rate series on discount rate, treasury bill rate, commercial banks‟ deposit and lending rates from 1989 to 2009 (for Gambia, Nigeria and Sierra Leone) and from 2000 to 2009 (for Ghana). Specifically, the study set out to examine how lending and deposit rates respond to changes in the official rates and to see whether there is a convergence among the rates over time. Also, to examine the relative adjustment of commercial bank lending rates to changes in the official rate when there is disequilibrium. The analyses were twofold: a full sample period and a rolling window analysis. Following Cottarelli and Kourelis (1994), the study employed cointegration technique and an asymmetric error correction model to obtain the short-run and long-run parameters from which the error correction coefficients, mean adjustment lags and asymmetric mean adjustment lags were estimated. The results for the entire sample period revealed that the long-run pass-through in Nigeria was 81% and 67% for lending rates and deposit rates respectively. In Ghana, it was 66% and 69% for lending and deposit rates respectively. While in Sierra Leone, long-run pass-through was 62% and 72% for lending and deposit rates respectively. In Gambia, it was 50% and 40% for lending and deposit rates respectively. On the other hand, the short-run pass-through was found to be lower compared to the long-run pass-through: in Nigeria it was 66% and 47%; in Gambia, 26% and 29%; in Sierra Leone, 30% and 13%; and in Ghana, -6% and 35% for lending and deposit rates respectively in each country. The pass-through estimates for the rolling windows were mixed for short-run and long-run pass-through. The mean adjustment lags suggest that the speed of adjustment of Lending rates for full sample period were two, two, seven and twelve months in Nigeria, Ghana, Sierra Leone and Gambia respectively. While for deposit rates they were five, six, seven and eighteen for Ghana, Nigeria, Gambia and Sierra Leone respectively. The average speeds of adjustment for the rolling windows were four and five months for lending and deposit rates respectively. Weak evidence of convergence was found in lending and deposit rates in the short-run and long-run pass-through among the countries. However, the results suggest that the magnitude and speed of the pass-through amongst the countries on average were high compared to emerging Asian countries. Significant asymmetric adjustments were found in the lending rates for Gambia and Sierra Leone, while in Gambia and Nigeria there were asymmetries in deposit rates. Based on the evidence provided, interest rate pass-through is high in Nigeria and Ghana compared to Gambia and Sierra Leone and this calls for the harmonization of financial policies on the part of the financial authorities in the WAMZ. Viewed solely from an interest rate pass-through, the lack of convergence among the countries suggests that WAMZ is far from ready for a monetary union. The relatively low pass-through in some of the countries suggests rigidity in the banking system which may be due to underdevelopment of the system. Thus efforts geared toward strengthening the banking system and the financial system as whole would further enhance the prospect of a monetary union among them.
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- Date Issued: 2011
A regulationist approach to South Africa and a critique of inflation targeting
- Authors: Bax, Ryan Michael Jonathan
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Inflation (Finance) -- South Africa International finance Economic development -- South Africa Sustainable development -- South Africa Inflation targeting -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1036 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1004533
- Description: Since the 1970s, the international economic system has become prone to the volatility and undue effects associated with booms and busts. This forty year period spanning the present has exhibited restrained growth and repressive economic development. Critical changes to the system are presented by the transition from "Fordism" to the post 1970s neoliberal regime and the globalization of world markets. Underpinning this transformation is an ideological shift towards free market capitalism and the adoption of "reduced form" market models. These "reduced form" models appear to hinder economic sustainability as their grounding in economics fails to account for real economic activity. This thesis aims to provide a more holistic perception of sustainability, one that provides a sound basis on which to develop sustainable economic policy. The Regulationist Approach presents the requisite understanding of economic sustainability required within this research. The inclusion of economic, historical and socio-political fields of research proposes a wider understanding of the political economy and sustainability. The application of the Regulation Approach to the South African economy illustrates many problem areas that require attention. The examination found that firstly, aggregate demand in the South African economy was unsustainable due to the debt driven nature of demand under the asset price bubble of the mid to late 2000s. Secondly, aggregate supply also proved unsustainable as government is failing to provide any substantive growth within important sectors of the economy such as education and the provision of general services. Furthermore, the adoption of inflation targeting in South Africa poses a barrier to sustained economic growth as it focuses singularly on price inflation. The "reduced form" model of inflation targeting fails to account for market failures and a number of vital indicators of sustainability most notably, debt levels and asset prices. The inclusion of these indicators, and financial stability more generally, are found to provide a more holistic and sustainable approach to macroeconomic policymaking.
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- Date Issued: 2011
Financial integration in East Africa: evidence from interest rate pass-through analysis
- Authors: Bholla, Zohaib Salim
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: East African Community -- Economic integration East African Community -- Economic conditions -- 21st century Interest rates -- Africa, East Interest rates -- Econometric models -- Africa, East Interest rates -- Effect of inflation on -- Africa, East Banks and banking -- Africa, East
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1044 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1006131
- Description: The successful launch of the European Monetary Union (EMU) raised an already ever growing interest in the economics of monetary integration and the formation of monetary unions around the world. Following the EMU experience, countries have considered forming a monetary union amongst themselves. The East African Community (EAC), comprising the three original member countries Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda and now including Burundi and Rwanda, is an example of such a group of countries that seek to form a monetary union. This study aims to identify the current level of financial integration amongst the East African countries. In order to do so the study examines whether the pass-through of monetary policy in the five countries has become similar over time. This is to provide an indication of the extent to which the nominal convergence criteria amongst the member countries have been met. The results of the study provide an indication of whether the formation of a monetary union in East Africa is possible. The empirical analysis used in this study included stationarity tests, four tests of co integration and an asymmetric error correction model to investigate whether the pass-through of monetary policy transmission in the five countries has become more similar over the ten year sample period from 1999 to 2008. The analysis uses three interest rates and 6-year rolling windows to identify the extent of macroeconomic convergence that prevails within the EAC, and consequently whether the formation of a monetary union is possible. The results suggest that the magnitude of the convergence amongst the countries remain low and there are significant rigidities in the deposit and lending rates over time, however the passthrough has improved with respect to the lending rate but not the deposit rate. The overall conclusion of the study suggests that an EAC wide monetary union is currently not possible based on the evidence provided from the pass-through analysis.
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- Date Issued: 2011
South African money market volatility, asymmetry and retail interest pass-through
- Authors: Fadiran, Gideon Oluwatobi
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Money market -- South Africa Interest rates -- South Africa Monetary policy -- South Africa Econometric models Banks and banking -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:993 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002728
- Description: The purpose of this paper is to examine the interest rate transmission mechanism for South Africa as an emerging economy in a pre-repo and repo system. It explains how the money market rate is transmitted to the retail interest rates both in the long-run and short-run and tests the symmetric and asymmetric interest rate pass-through using the Scholnick (1996) ECM and the Wang and Lee (2009) ECM-EGARCH (1, 1)-M methodology. This permitted the examination of the impact of interest rate volatility, along with the leverage effect. An incomplete pass-through is found in the short-run. From the entire sample period, a symmetric adjustment is found in the deposit rate, which had upward rigidity adjustment, while an asymmetric adjustment is found in the lending rate, with a downward rigidity adjustment. All the adjustments supported the collusive pricing arrangements. According to the conditional variance estimation of the ECM-EGARCH (1, 1), negative volatility impact and leverage effect are present and influential only in the deposit interest rate adjustment process in South Africa.
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- Date Issued: 2011
An econometric analysis of the impact of economic freedom on economic growth in the SADC
- Authors: Gorlach, Vsevolod Igorevich
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa , Economic development
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:8983 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/1539 , Economic development -- South Africa , Economic development
- Description: The conventional approach to increasing economic growth - increasing inputs, such as labour and capital, is not always possible. The wider, fundamental sources of economic growth need to be considered too. Foreign aid is a temporary lifeline and does not spur economic growth. Conversely, financial assistance negatively affects growth and can hamper development prospects. Economic freedom and economically freer countries have been associated with higher growth rates, higher per capita incomes, greater volumes of trade, prosperity and overall wellbeing. By improving their economic freedom, deregulating the economy and allowing economic freedom to prosper, countries can experience sustained GDP growth. Previous studies have shown that economic freedom and economic growth are exponentially related - and that by initially becoming freer, countires can increase their growth rates at higher rates. The main objective of the SADC is to achieve development and economic growth, to alleviate poverty and enhance the standard and quality of life for the peoples of Southern Africa. The SADC is attempting to achieve economic integration through macroeconomic convergence. A number of macroeconomic variables have been set to act as primary indicators. These include inflation, fiscal balance, public debt and the current account balance. By introducing the concept that economic freedom can lead to higher growth rates and being able to identify economic freedom, it makes it possible to investigate how the SADC can achieve its set goals by becoming freer. By investigating individual components that constitute the overall freedom index, it becomes possible to establish the relationship that exists between this viriable and economic growth. This will illustrate where deregulation and freedom are most effective and where policy decisions need to be highlighted. The 2008 economic crisis revealed that countries that decreased their economic freedom have fared worse than countries allowing freedom to prosper. Government fiscal stimulus has had no positive impact on growth rates; the negative effects of reducing economic freedom will onlky be fully seen in future years. However, the majority of the SADC countries showed a relatively strong fiscal stance during the recession. This study established whether that a positive relationship between economic freedom and economic growth in the SADC. Secondly, the direction of causality that economic freedom leads to economic growth. The findings reveal that economic freedom fosters economic growth in general, and for the SADC in particular. Empirical evidence has been found for the SADC; and the implications of becoming freer are more fully explained.
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- Date Issued: 2011
An analysis of the influence of domestic macroeconomic variables on the performance of the South African stock market sectoral indices
- Authors: Hancocks, Ryan Lee
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Stock price indexes -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Macroeconomics -- Econometric models
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:954
- Description: An econometric study was undertaken to determine the extent to which selected macroeconomic variables influenced stock market prices on the All-Share, Financial, Mining and Retail Indices of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange in South Africa from 1996:7 to 2008:12. The Johansen cointegration method was used to determine whether cointegrating relationships existed between the macroeconomic variables and the stock market indices. A Vector Error Correction model was estimated and found significant results that money supply, inflation, long and short- run interest rates, and the exchange rate all had an influence on stock market prices. Further, the VECM results for each sector indicated that certain macroeconomic variables had differing influences on each sector of the stock market. Impulse Response tests indicated that the selected macroeconomic variables caused shock to the sectoral indices in the short-run but that the effect was lagged. The Variance Decomposition tests conducted supported earlier evidence that the macroeconomic variables had a strong level of sectoral index determinacy in the long run. The results found that the All-Share and Financial Indices were negatively influenced by inflation and short term interest rates in the long run, while the Financial Index also had a negative relationship with long-run interest rates. Money supply was found to have a positive effect on all the indices. A weakening of the exchange rate was found to have a positive influence on both the Retail and Mining Indices, while it negatively affected the All-Share and Financial Indices. The long-run interest rate had a positive influence on both the Retail and Mining Indices. Overall the study finds that macroeconomic variables are important determinants of stock market prices in South Africa and that it is important to examine each sector of the stock market separately to capture what are different effects. The limitations of the study are that a different measure for exchange rates from the nominal rand/dollar exchange rate used here may yield more decisive results and provide insight into the link between exchange rate behaviour and performance of especially the retail sector.
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- Date Issued: 2011
A conjoint choice experiment analysing water service delivery in three Eastern Cape Municipalities
- Authors: Hosking, Phillipa
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Municipal service -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape -- Marketing , Water Supply -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:9357 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/1378 , Municipal service -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape -- Marketing , Water Supply -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape
- Description: This study considers the nature of South African municipal water service delivery, and how marketing strategies can provide a framework for better management of this service. It reflects on the elements that guide municipal decision making and evaluates user preferences for levels of the municipal “water service mix” by employing conjoint analysis. Particular attention is paid to consumer willingness to pay for improvements in the “water service mix”. The study argues that the values municipal consumers attach to the variables of the water service mix need to be better incorporated into decision making regarding water service delivery, and that conjoint analysis is an informative method to assist in generating this information. The study outlines a water service marketing challenge and methods of research followed to deal with it (Chapter One) and the nature of the laws and institutions governing water service provision in South Africa (Chapter Two). The task of providing water services is delegated to Water Service Providers (municipalities). The key variables of the water service mix from the consumers perspective include; quality of the water, rate of flow from tap, interruption of water flow, sewerage disposal, assurance of supply, and water service tariffs (Chapter Three). The study covers the areas of Amathole, Kouga and Nelson Mandela Bay Municipalities' (Chapter Five). The method of marketing analysis applied is conjoint analysis, alternatively known as choice experiment analysis. An overview of the method is provided and its application to three samples of one hundred residents at each of the study sites is described in Chapter Four. The responses of the three hundred residents provide the basis for the results. Respondents were requested to make a series of choices between alternative water service mixes consisting of six variables differentiated by three levels (Chapter Three). In making these choices they implicitly compared and weighed up the relative worth of the selected variables against each other. The findings of the analysis were diverse (Chapter Six); two of the three estimated models did not yield significant results. An interpretation of these results showed that the respondents of the Kouga municipality were willing to pay R65.05 more (per 10 xii Kilolitres of water) than their current monthly tariff for a marginal improvement in water quality, R57.29 more (per 10 Kilolitres of water) per month for a marginal improvement in sewerage disposal and R21.90 (per 10 Kilolitres) per month for marginal improvements in assurance of water supply. Findings showed that willingness to pay for reduced interruptions and improved flow rates was lower and not as highly valued as the abovementioned variables. Most of these findings were consistent with similar international and national studies showing their reliability. Although there has been significant improvement in extending the reach of the network since 1994, the standards of water service provision in South African municipalities do not appear to have improved. The results of this study mirror a number of concerns that have been expressed about the standards of service, particularly sanitation (in publications like the Green Drop Report). Municipal service delivery in these areas would appear to be constrained by a number of issues including a lack of public involvement, legislation, limited financial resources and institutional capabilities. However, it is a service that is too vitally important to be allowed to deteriorate. Marketing analyses can make a valuable contribution to allocating and managing the scarce resources to best satisfy the consumers of water services (Chapter Seven). When consumer orientation is formally introduced as the main objective into the thinking of the service provider, it becomes untenable to offer poor service delivery. But that is exactly what many municipalities appear to be doing. There is a need to get back to the basics – where the consumer is king. This analysis concludes that consumers want, above all else, assurance of water supply, a high quality of water, and safe environmentally sensitive disposal of waste water. It is recommended that municipalities not lose sight of the fact that price is an important part of the marketing mix. From the paying consumers perspective, when the government incorporate too many other considerations into pricing of water services they are, in effect, disengaging price from the marketing mix by not being sensitive to consumer needs. This approach shows a weak marketing strategy, and may result in dissatisfied consumers who may become unwilling to pay for their water services – an outcome that the researcher would discourage.
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- Date Issued: 2011
Extending legal professional privilege to non-legal tax practitioners in South Africa: a comparative and constitutional perspective
- Authors: Jani, Pride
- Date: 2011
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:882 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1001636
- Description: This study explains the differing rights of taxpayers, based on the nature of the profession of the tax adviser they consult. Those who utilize the services of tax attorneys can rely on the protection afforded by legal professional privilege whereas those who obtain their advice from non-legal advisers, such as accountants and other tax advisers, cannot claim the same protection. Legal professional privilege is a substantive right which should be extended to cover clients of non-legal tax advisers. The continued denial of the privilege to clients of nonlegal tax practitioners while it is availed to those who approach legal practitioners infringes the rights to privacy and equality contained in the South African Constitution. The object of this research is to show that the common law concept of legal professional privilege is amenable to extension so as to cover the clients of non-legal tax advisers. A qualitative approach was adopted which involved an in-depth analysis of the origins, rationale as well as the requirements for the operation of the doctrine. This also involved a constitutional as well as a comparative dimension. The constitutional dimension sought to show that the current distinction is untenable under the South African Constitution by virtue of the infringement of the rights to privacy and equality. The comparative dimension presented an analysis of the various jurisdictions that have extended the doctrine as well as those that are still to do so or have adamantly rejected the idea. The differential treatment of taxpayers based on the professional they engage contravenes the privacy and equality provisions and is thus unconstitutional. The study demonstrates that legal professional privilege is amenable to extension and there is need for legislative intervention as the courts are limited in the extent to which they may intervene in light of the separation of powers and judicial deference. Legal professional privilege should therefore be extended to protect the clients of non-legal tax advisers as opposed to partial protection which subsists at the moment.
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- Date Issued: 2011
Volatility transmission across South African financial markets: does the bull – bear distinction matter?
- Authors: Jaramba, Toddy
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Finance -- South Africa , Financial institutions -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Portfolio management -- South Africa , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Foreign exchange -- Mathematical models , Bond market -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1106 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1013396
- Description: The volatility transmission in financial markets has important implications for investment decision making, portfolio diversification and overall macroeconomic stability. This paper analyses volatility transmission across four South African financial markets that is the stock, bond, money and foreign exchange markets, using daily data for the period 2000-2010. It also shows whether the volatilities in the SA financial markets present a different behaviour in bull and bear market phases. The effects of the international markets volatility to the local markets volatility was also looked at in this study. To obtain estimates of market volatility, the study experimented with various volatility models that include the GARCH, EGARCH and TARCH. To examine volatility interaction and the transmission of volatility shocks, a VAR model was estimated together with block exogeneity, impulse response and variance decomposition. The study found that there is limited volatility transmission across the SA financial markets. The study also found that the money market is the most exogenous of all markets since the other three financial markets volatility is insignificant to the money market (see impulse response results). For the bond market, volatility transmission was characterized with a decreasing trend. With regard to international markets volatility, it concluded that, the shocks in the international markets will eventually affect the movement in the local markets. The results also highlighted that, world and local markets are important in accelerating the volatility transmission in SA financial markets depending on whether they are in their bull or bear phases. In the case of South Africa, the study found that volatility transmission across markets is higher during bear market periods than bull market periods. Basing on the study results which show that the volatility transmission is limited across SA financial markets, the implication to local and international investors is that there is a greater potential for diversifying risk by investing in different South African financial markets.
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- Date Issued: 2011
How integrated are the African stock exchanges?: evidence from long term comovement, returns and volatility spillovers
- Authors: Kambadza, Tinashe Harry Dumile
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Stock exchanges -- Africa Money market -- Africa Globalization -- Economic aspects -- Africa International economic relations
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1017 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002752
- Description: Stock market linkages have implications for portfolio diversification, asset pricing, monetary and regulatory policy as well as financial stability. This study examines the extent to which African stock markets are linked using daily data for the period 2000-2010. The study is divided into three main parts each focussing on the ways in which integration of the stock markets can be viewed. Firstly, we analyse the long run co-movement of the stock markets using both bivariate and multivariate Johansen (1988) and Johansen and Juselius (1990) cointegration approaches. Secondly, we analyse returns linkages using Factor analysis and the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models. In the Factor Analysis model, we used two extraction methods, namely Principal Component Analysis and the Maximurn Likelihood technique. The VAR model was extended with impulse response, variance decomposition and block exogeniety. Thirdly, we analyse the behaviour of volatility and the volatility linkages among the stock markets. We initially analysed and modelled volatility in each stock market using the GARCH, EGARCH and GJR GARCH and then examined the long-term trend of the volatility. Conditional volatility series for each country were then estimated using the most appropriate model and were analysed using VAR, block exogeniety, impulse response and variance decomposition to determine the extent of their linkages. The findings of the study are as follows: Both the bivariate and multivariate models found slim evidence of cointegration amongst the stock markets, suggesting that there were opportunities for portfolio diversification for investors. In general, the financial crisis had very little impact on the long-run relationships of the stock markets. Results for the returns linkages showed that there were limited retums linkages with the exceptions of South African-Namibia and Egypt-Morocco to a lesser extent. South Africa was found to be the most endogenous, whilst Ghana and Nigeria were the most exogenous on the continent. We regards to volatility, we found that it was asymmetric and persistent across all the stock markets with long term trend of volatility showing that it significantly increased for most of the markets. Finally, there were limited volatility linkages, only between South Africa, Egypt and Namibia, implying that African stock markets are still largely segmented from each other. However, the linkages between South Africa and Egypt could have negative effects as they could lead to the spread of contagion effects during times of crises. Therefore, policymakers should consider revising and improving policies to enhance economic integration on the continent.
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- Date Issued: 2011
The short-term effect on shareholder wealth of banking mergers and acquisitions during periods of real economic expansion and contraction
- Authors: Kerr, Gordon Roy
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Bank mergers , Consolidation and merger of corporations , Business cycles , Corporations -- Investor relations , Stockholder wealth , Rate of return
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1108 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1013442
- Description: Controversy currently exists over whether abnormal returns (ARs) are earned by shareholders of bidder and target banks through a Merger and Acquisition (M&A). The state of the economy in which the firms operate is often mentioned as a reason for firms engaging in M&As, however, the extent to which economies influence the ARs of shareholders is unknown. Following MacKinlay (1997), the aim of this study is to determine the average ARs earned or lost by shareholders of several banks around the world during an M&A. The results obtained may indicate that shareholders of bidding firms consider an M&A to be a wealth-destroying event irrespective of the state of the economy. It would seem that target firms’ shareholders consider M&As to be wealth-creating events when they occur during a period of real economic expansion. However, during periods of real economic contraction, target firms’ shareholders consider M&As to be wealth-destroying events. Thus, the state of an economy during an M&A can affect average ARs considerably.
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- Date Issued: 2011
Selected marketing and human resources variables influencing sponsorship initiatives within corporate businesses :a South African perspective
- Authors: Kruger, Elda
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Branding (Marketing) , Advertising , Human capital
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:9367 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/d1010010 , Branding (Marketing) , Advertising , Human capital
- Description: In an ever changing world, consumers are less and less responsive to traditional advertising, which creates a challenge for marketers, as they need to constantly develop new marketing communication tools to make a lasting impression on current and potential consumers. Consumers of the twenty first century are described as emotionally acting individuals, and has led to a increase in creative and emotional marketing communication tools, for example sponsorship, which is an increasingly important element of an integrated marketing communication strategy. Because of the value sponsorship can have for a business, and the high costs involved in this marketing initiative, it is imperative to examine variables that might be influential, in order to apply this promotional activity to the business’ advantage (Belch & Belch 2007:12; Hartland, Skinner & Griffiths 2005:164-173; Nicholis, Roslow & Dublish 1999:365-387; Pham & Vanheule 1997:407-417). Because of the important effect of sponsorship, marketing managers seek clarity in respect of which events to support and to link their business’ brand with or not. There is however little guidance in literature available on which events to sponsor and how to exploit resources efficiently and effectively (Crimmins & Horn 1996; Speed & Thompson 2000). Therefore, the objective of this study is to identify factors that might influence sponsorship initiatives within corporate businesses in South Africa. The variables that was identified for the study at hand was marketing related variables namely branding, marketing ethics and green marketing, and human resources related variables namely, corporate culture, values and employee empowerment. In order to determine the influence of the predetermined variables on sponsorship, an empirical investigation was conducted. The positivistic (phenomenological) approach was used in this study as the aim was to determine whether a relationship exists between selected independent variables and the dependent variable, via the intervening variables, using statistical analysis. In order to gather primary data, selfadministered questionnaires were issued to 182 respondents by means of convenience and snowball sampling of which the results were analysed to arrive at conclusions regarding the research in question. The empirical analysis of the data followed the following statistical steps: exploratory factor analysis to test the validity of the measuring instrument, Cronbach Alpha correlation coefficients to confirm the reliability of the questionnaire, SEM goodness-of-fit, multiple regression analysis to test the hypothesised relationships between the independent, intervening and dependent variables, ANOVA and descriptive statistics. The main findings of this study suggest that branding and green marketing have a significantly positive relationship with sponsorship, indicating the importance of a business’ brand and environmental awareness in terms of its emotional marketing initiatives. These relationships iIn an ever changing world, consumers are less and less responsive to traditional advertising, which creates a challenge for marketers, as they need to constantly develop new marketing communication tools to make a lasting impression on current and potential consumers. Consumers of the twenty first century are described as emotionally acting individuals, and has led to a increase in creative and emotional marketing communication tools, for example sponsorship, which is an increasingly important element of an integrated marketing communication strategy. Because of the value sponsorship can have for a business, and the high costs involved in this marketing initiative, it is imperative to examine variables that might be influential, in order to apply this promotional activity to the business’ advantage (Belch & Belch 2007:12; Hartland, Skinner & Griffiths 2005:164-173; Nicholis, Roslow & Dublish 1999:365-387; Pham & Vanheule 1997:407-417). Because of the important effect of sponsorship, marketing managers seek clarity in respect of which events to support and to link their business’ brand with or not. There is however little guidance in literature available on which events to sponsor and how to exploit resources efficiently and effectively (Crimmins & Horn 1996; Speed & Thompson 2000). Therefore, the objective of this study is to identify factors that might influence sponsorship initiatives within corporate businesses in South Africa. The variables that was identified for the study at hand was marketing related variables namely branding, marketing ethics and green marketing, and human resources related variables namely, corporate culture, values and employee empowerment. In order to determine the influence of the predetermined variables on sponsorship, an empirical investigation was conducted. The positivistic (phenomenological) approach was used in this study as the aim was to determine whether a relationship exists between selected independent variables and the dependent variable, via the intervening variables, using statistical analysis. In order to gather primary data, selfadministered questionnaires were issued to 182 respondents by means of convenience and snowball sampling of which the results were analysed to arrive at conclusions regarding the research in question. The empirical analysis of the data followed the following statistical steps: exploratory factor analysis to test the validity of the measuring instrument, Cronbach Alpha correlation coefficients to confirm the reliability of the questionnaire, SEM goodness-of-fit, multiple regression analysis to test the hypothesised relationships between the independent, intervening and dependent variables, ANOVA and descriptive statistics. The main findings of this study suggest that branding and green marketing have a significantly positive relationship with sponsorship, indicating the importance of a business’ brand and environmental awareness in terms of its emotional marketing initiatives. These relationships imply that, according to respondents, if these two aspects improve within the business, so could its sponsorship initiatives. Interestingly, it was established that ethics was insignificant in terms of a business’sponsorship initiatives. Corporate culture and values had a positive relationship with sponsorship, and employee empowerment proved to be negatively related to Sport and Broadcast sponsorship, with no significant relationship with Education and Community sponsorship. Additionally, the empirical investigation revealed that the ethnicity of respondents exerted an influence on the perception employees have regarding ethics, employee empowerment and Sport and Broadcast sponsorship within the businesses they are employed at. As this study assisted in the development of sponsorship strategies for businesses to implement, it will have a direct benefit to marketers and businesses in general so that sponsorship initiatives can be directed in such a way to maximise the return on investment for a business. The implications of this study will be of great value to marketing managers as sponsorship is such an important marketing strategy and communications tool which impacts on the overall business objectives.mply that, according to respondents, if these two aspects improve within the business, so could its sponsorship initiatives. Interestingly, it was established that ethics was insignificant in terms of a business’ sponsorship initiatives. Corporate culture and values had a positive relationship with sponsorship, and employee empowerment proved to be negatively related to Sport and Broadcast sponsorship, with no significant relationship with Education and Community sponsorship. Additionally, the empirical investigation revealed that the ethnicity of respondents exerted an influence on the perception employees have regarding ethics, employee empowerment and Sport and Broadcast sponsorship within the businesses they are employed at. As this study assisted in the development of sponsorship strategies for businesses to implement, it will have a direct benefit to marketers and businesses in general so that sponsorship initiatives can be directed in such a way to maximise the return on investment for a business. The implications of this study will be of great value to marketing managers as sponsorship is such an important marketing strategy and communications tool which impacts on the overall business objectives.
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- Date Issued: 2011
Environmental literacy: a needs analysis
- Authors: Lillah, Riyaadh
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Environmental education , Environmental sciences , Human ecology
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:9290 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/d1011029 , Environmental education , Environmental sciences , Human ecology
- Description: An impending environmental crisis has been predicted by many which has led to an increased awareness and concern regarding the ability of the planet to sustain human development. Furthermore, organisations expected to be leaders in society, such as businesses and Higher Education Institutions (HEIs), have been identified as some of the main drivers behind the ever increasing rate of destruction of the natural environment. Business schools have even been singled out as some of the main drivers behind the degradation of the natural environment by not addressing the knowledge gap of managers in this regard. Given this, the problem statement of this research is to determine how effective existing NMMU curricula are at shaping environmentally literate business graduates. The problem will be investigated from two perspectives. Firstly, from a supply side perspective - investigating the pro-environmental behaviours, ecological and business knowledge, „green‟ management skills and environmental values that students registered in the Business and Economics Sciences faculty at NMMU exhibit. Secondly, the problem will be investigated from a demand side perspective – investigating the pro-environmental behaviours, ecological and business knowledge, "green‟ management skills and environmental values that potential employers of NMMU students require. The focus will be on prospective employers in the mining and automotive industries. To address the problem to be investigated in this study a theoretical framework was developed and tested. This theoretical framework was based on the assumption that environmental literacy is measurable in terms of the behaviours of individuals towards the natural environment and that these behaviours are in turn dependent upon the ecological and business knowledge, "green‟ management skills and environmental values that the individual possesses. To test the theoretical framework an online survey was conducted amongst students registered in the Business and Economic Sciences Faculty at Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University (NMMU), while semi-structured personal interviews were used to assess the demand for environmentally literate business graduates in the mining and automotive industries. In total 308 business students participated in the online survey. The findings suggest that students are highly sensitive to moral issues pertaining to the natural environment and have a better understanding of traditional ecological concepts than "green‟ business concepts. It was also found that ecological and business knowledge had the greatest influence on pro-environmental behaviours followed by environmental values and "green‟ management skills. The findings of this study will be used to enhance environmental literacy in the faculty. In terms of the semi-structured personal interviews, the views of eight environmental experts in the South African mining industries were obtained. The general analytical procedure was applied to identify prominent themes which existed in the qualitative data. This involved developing codes and identifying data which related to those specific codes in order to provide a description of and provide some dimension to these codes. Codes were categorised according to their similarity to each other. The different categories identified were ecology, legal compliance, technology, environmental management, sustainable development, pollution and waste management, financial implications and corporate citizenship. Some of these themes were not entirely expected based on the literature review. These additional insights add depth to the analysis of environmental education in South Africa and highlight the gaps in environmental literacy literature. In terms of environmental literacy, these categories had implications for the knowledge, skills, values and behaviours of business graduates. From the findings of this study the researcher concluded that a certain level of enthusiasm for environmental education exists among NMMU students, as well as individuals in the mining and automotive industries in South Africa. However, the level of environmental literacy exhibited by students registered in the Business and Economic Sciences Faculty at NMMU (between nominal and functional) was not considered to be sufficient to operate effectively in the mining and automotive industries.
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- Date Issued: 2011
Willingness to pay for water quality changes in the Swartkops Estuary
- Authors: Magobiane, Siyathemba Emmanuel
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Water quality -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape -- Swartkops Estuary , Water quality -- Management , Estuaries -- South Africa -- Swartkops River
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:9000 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/d1011505 , Water quality -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape -- Swartkops Estuary , Water quality -- Management , Estuaries -- South Africa -- Swartkops River
- Description: South Africa, like the rest of the world, is vulnerable to the impact of climate change and loss of biodiversity. Water pollution is one of the six global threats to freshwater biodiversity. The future health status and productivity of South Africa’s estuaries is dependent on two main factors: management and quality and quantity of freshwater inputs. South Africa has around 250 functioning estuaries along its 3000 km coastline (Hosking 2004). They play an invaluable role in ecosystem functioning and biodiversity conservation. Estuaries are amongst the richest and most productive parts of the marine environment and as such call for careful management. Some of these ecosystems are focus areas for urban an industrial development. Urbanization and industrialization pose a serious threat to these sensitive systems. Increased water pollution from domestic use, industry and agriculture affect the ecology of these estuarine, river and lake systems. A large number of South African estuaries are still in excellent or good condition, but these are mainly the very small systems. The larger systems, like the Swartkops estuary, often very important in terms of conservation value, are also often compromised in some way or other. The reasons why they are compromised include habitat destruction, artificial breaching and pollution, especially those close to urban areas. This situation is aggravated by outdated and inadequate sewage treatment plant infrastructure and unskilled operators that dispose untreated waste into these systems. Pollution into estuaries can result in the partial loss of the environmental service flows supplied by them. The result of lost environmental service flows has adverse consequences, such as diminished residential and holiday recreational appeal, as well as reduced capacity to support subsistence livelihoods. Poor water quality not only limits its utilisation value, but is also places added economic burden on society, through both the primary treatment costs and the secondary impacts on the economy. Healthy estuarine ecosystems are essential for the maintenance of biodiversity and a wide range of environmental goods and services. Without a drastic improvement in water quality management approaches and treatment technologies, the continuous deterioration in water quality will decrease benefits and increase costs affiliated with use of these water resources.The market-based system of the South African economy has to a large extent failed to account for the value of the “free” goods and services provided by the natural environment. When the true value of the natural resources is unknown, there is a risk that less financial resources and capacity are made available to manage and protect these natural resources than is efficient. To ensure that these goods are properly taken into account, they must be valued and these values incorporated in social decision making. This study uses the contingent valuation method (CVM) to establish the value of the Swartkops estuary for changes to water quality. The CVM is a non-market valuation method that is widely used in cost-benefit analysis and environmental impact assessment. The CVM establishes the economic value of the good by asking the users of an environmental good to state their willingness to pay for a hypothetical scenario to prevent, or bring about, certain changes in the current condition of the environmental good. This method is subjected to some criticism. This criticism revolves around the validity and the reliability of estimated results and the effects of various biases and errors on them. The North Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Blue-Ribbon panel investigating the validity of the CVM resolved that the CVM can be used to guide social decision making, if a series of guidelines are followed. The Swartkops contingent valuation (CV) was conducted with these guidelines in mind. The results of the Swartkops CV indicate that the user population has a total willingness to pay (TWTP) of R68848 (median bid) and R203632 (mean bid) annually for the implementation of a project to improve the water quality in the Swartkops estuary. User population is an important determinant of the TWTP value. As a result, using a more broadly defined user population, TWTP per annum was calculated to be R3481987 (median bid) and R10298688 (mean bid). Management of natural resources should be informed by values that reflect efficient balances, so as to obtain the most efficient use of them (Trupie 2008). Polluted water inflows into South Africa’s estuaries are a threat to their biodiversity. Healthy estuarine ecosystems are essential for the maintenance of biodiversity and human well-being (Water Assessment Programme Report 2006: 15). As a result, this study recommends that a project be implemented by the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality to improve water quality in the Swartkops estuary.
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- Date Issued: 2011
Exchange rate behavior in the cases of the Zambian Kwacha and Malawian Kwacha : is there misalignment?
- Authors: Magwizi, Brenda Thandekha , Rhodes University
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Foreign exchange rates -- Zambia Foreign exchange rates -- Malawi International relations -- Case studies -- Zambia International relations -- Case studies -- Malawi
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:974 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002708
- Description: The exchange rate is the price of one currency against another currency or currencies of a group of countries. Real exchange rates are important because they show the external competitiveness of a country‟s economy. Thus, when the exchange rate of a country is misaligned, this will affect its trade, production and the welfare of people. This study analysed macroeconomic determinants of the real exchange rate and dynamic adjustment of the real exchange rate as a result of shocks to these determinants. The study also determined the extent of misalignment of the real exchange rate in Malawi and Zambia and identified variables that contributed to it. Such information is important to policy makers. Quarterly data were used for both countries from 1980:1-2008:4. The literature review identified those variables that determine the exchange rate and these include government consumption, foreign aid, net foreign assets, commodity prices, terms of trade, domestic credit, openness and the Balassa Samuelson effect (technological progress). To determine the long-run relationship between the exchange rate and its determinants, we employed the Johansen approach and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). For robustness check on the long-run and shortrun effects of determinants on the exchange rate, variance decomposition and impulse response analyses were used. Results in the study show that in Malawi for both models, an increase in LAID, LGCON and LTOT resulted in real exchange rate depreciation and increases in LDC, NFA and LNEER resulted in an appreciation. In Zambia, increases in LAID, LGCON, LOPEN and LTOT caused the real exchange rate to depreciate while increases in LDC, NFA and LCOPPER led to an appreciation. Lagged LREER and LNEER were found to have short run effects on the equilibrium exchange rate for Malawi and lagged LCOPPER and LDC for Zambia. Periods of exchange rate misalignment were found in both countries. It was also found that the coefficient of speed of adjustment in Malawi in models 1 and 2 indicate that 11% and 27% of the variation in the real exchange rate from its equilibrium adjust each quarter respectively. The speed of adjustment for Zambia in both models was 45% and 47% respectively, higher than that of Malawi. Foreign aid has proven to be important in exchange rate misalignment in both countries, though this was not really expected in the case of Zambia. Given these results, it may be of interest to policy makers to understand which variables impact most on the exchange rate and how misalignment due to these determinants can be minimised.
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- Date Issued: 2011
The possible introduction of advance pricing agreements in South Africa income tax legislation
- Authors: Malevu, Shimane Mbuyiseni
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Transfer pricing -- Taxation -- South Africa , Price regulation -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:8954 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/1333 , Transfer pricing -- Taxation -- South Africa , Price regulation -- South Africa
- Description: This treatise analyses the suitability of the Advance Pricing Agreements (APA) for the South African Transfer Pricing legislation. The transfer pricing legislation places emphasis on the arm's length principle. Determining an arm's length price is problematic and as a result some countries have resorted to APA's to establish an arm's length price up-front, and thus avoid reviews and subsequent audits. The treatise first focuses on the transfer pricing provisions and other relevant applicable sections of the Act from the South African point of view, and it then examines the current status quo, i.e. the review processes used by the South African Revenue Services (SARS) as detailed in the Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Developments (OECD) Guidelines and the SARS Practice Note. Since negotiated tax treaties form part of the South Africa law, the impact of these treaties are discussed in Chapter 4. The treatise discusses in detail an APA from the OECD's point of view. It examines the objectives of an APA; the benefit and the shortcomings of using an APA. It then examines the APA request processes from a Canadian perspective and the administration of the APA from an USA perspective. The treatise examines South African trading partners using APA in transfer pricing matters, with reference to the effects and the challenges such countries face. The treatise concludes by looking at the benefits provided by use of an APA by South African major trading partners. The effect and the use of such APA will have in South Africa is also discussed and how it should be modelled; the present status quo with regard to personnel at SARS; and the possible impact the introduction and implementation will have in South Africa.
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- Date Issued: 2011
Survival analysis of SMMEs in Botswana
- Authors: Mannathoko, Bame Joshua
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Small business -- Botswana , Sex discrimination against women -- Botswana , Finance -- Botswana
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:8984 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/1531 , Small business -- Botswana , Sex discrimination against women -- Botswana , Finance -- Botswana
- Description: This study investigates the factors influencing survival of micro enterprises funded by the Department of Youth in Botswana. Data drawn from 271 business ventures established between the years 2005 and 2009 was analysed by using the Cox proportional hazards model (CPHM), a survival analysis technique. Results from the analysis suggest that businesses operated by younger owners endure a higher risk of failure in comparison to businesses owned by older entrepreneurs while firm size at start-up was also a significant determinant of survival. As a component of human capital, a personal contribution to the start-up capital and prior employment experience were also found to be significant predictors of business survival. Regarding gender of the business owner, the claim that female operated businesses face a higher probability of failure when compared to businesses run by males was not supported by the study results. The amount of funding from the DOY at start-up was found not to have any influence on the survival or failure outcomes for the business projects. Based on these findings, certain policy implications can be deduced. This study recommends that policy makers focus more on human capital requirements of beneficiaries of government business development initiatives as well as entrepreneur contribution to start-up capital in order to increase the success rate of the business ventures. In addition, the capacity to perform continuous monitoring and mentoring of government funded businesses ventures, particularly SMMEs, should be increased within the relevant departments or alternatively outsourcing of the requisite skills should be considered. Lastly, recommendation to replicate this research, at a larger scale in future is proposed.
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- Date Issued: 2011
Exchange rates behaviour in Ghana and Nigeria: is there a misalignment?
- Authors: Mapenda, Rufaro
- Date: 2011 , 2011-11-09
- Subjects: Foreign exchange rates -- Ghana , Foreign exchange rates -- Nigeria , Economic development -- Ghana , Economic development -- Nigeria , Foreign exchange administration -- Ghana , Foreign exchange administration -- Nigeria , International relations
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:976 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002710 , Foreign exchange rates -- Ghana , Foreign exchange rates -- Nigeria , Economic development -- Ghana , Economic development -- Nigeria , Foreign exchange administration -- Ghana , Foreign exchange administration -- Nigeria , International relations
- Description: Exchange rates are believed to be one of the major driving forces behind sustainable macroeconomic growth and it is therefore important to ensure that they are at an appropriate level. Exchange rate misalignment is a situation where the actual exchange rate differs significantly from its equilibrium value, resulting in either an overvalued or an undervalued currency. The problem with an undervalued currency is that it will increase the domestic price of tradable goods whereas an overvalued currency will cause a fall in the domestic prices of the tradable goods. Persistent exchange rate misalignment is thus expected to result in severe macroeconomic instability. The aim of this study is to estimate the equilibrium real exchange rate for both Ghana and Nigeria. After so doing, the equilibrium real exchange rate is compared to the actual real exchange rate, in order to assess the extent of real exchange rate misalignment in both countries, if any such exists. In order test the applicability of the equilibrium exchange rate models, the study draws from the simple monetary model as well as the Edwards (1989) and Montiel (1999) models. These models postulate that the variables which determine the real exchange rate are the terms of trade, trade restrictions, domestic interest rates, foreign aid inflow, income, money supply, world inflation, government consumption expenditure, world interest rates, capital controls and technological progress. Due to data limitations in Ghana and in Nigeria, not all the variables are utilised in the study. The study uses the Johansen (1995) model as well as the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to estimate the long- and the short-run relationships between the above-mentioned determinants and the real exchange rate. Thereafter the study employs the Hodrick-Prescott filter to estimate the permanent equilibrium exchange rate. The study estimates a real exchange rate model each for Ghana and Nigeria. Both the exchange rate models for Ghana and Nigeria provide evidence of exchange rate misalignment. The model for Ghana shows that from the first quarter of 1980 to the last quarter of 1983 the real exchange rate was overvalued; thereafter the exchange rate moved close to its equilibrium value and was generally undervalued with few and short-lived episodes of overvaluation. In regard to real exchange rate misalignment in Nigeria prior to the Structural Adjustment Program in 1986 there were episodes of undervaluation from the first quarter of 1980 to the first quarter of 1984 and overvaluation from the second quarter of 1984 to the third quarter of 1986; thereafter the exchange rate was generally and marginally undervalued.
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- Date Issued: 2011