Establishing a water resources assessment system for Eswatini (Swaziland) incorporating data and modelling uncertainty
- Authors: Ndzabandzaba, Coli
- Date: 2021-10-29
- Subjects: Water resources development Eswatini , Water-supply Eswatini Management , Hydrologic models Eswatini , Runoff Mathematical models , Rain and rainfall Mathematical models , Pitman model
- Language: English
- Type: Doctoral theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/189009 , vital:44806 , 10.21504/10962/189009
- Description: The uneven distribution of water resources availability globally puts pressure on environmental and human or socio-economic systems and has complex implications for the interactions within these systems. The natural environment and water resources are increasingly threatened by development, and water management crises are still occurring. This is exacerbated by the lack of accurate and adequate information on these systems. In Eswatini, for example, the pressure on the available water resources is mounting due to increasing water demand for irrigation while information about natural hydrological conditions and levels of water resources developments are uncertain. In addition, the practical application of hydrological models for water resources assessments that incorporate uncertainty in Eswatini has yet to be realised. The aim of the study, therefore, was to develop a water resource assessment system that is based on both observed and simulated information and that includes uncertainty. This study focusses on a regional water resource assessment using an uncertainty version of the Pitman monthly rainfall-runoff model whose outputs are constrained by six indices of natural hydrological response (i.e., mean monthly runoff, mean monthly groundwater recharge, Q10, Q50 and Q90 percentage points of the flow duration curve and % time of zero flows) for each of the 122 sub-basins of the transboundary catchments of Eswatini. A 2-step uncertainty modelling approach was tested, validated and then applied to all the sub-basins of Eswatini. The first step of the model run establishes behavioural, but uncertain model parameter ranges for natural incremental sub-basin hydrological responses and the model is typically run 100 000 times for each sub-basin. The parameter space that defines the uncertainty in parameter estimation is sampled based on simple Monte Carlo approach. The second step links all the sub-basin outputs and allows for water use parameters to be incorporated, where necessary, in order to generate cumulative sub-basin outflows. The results from the constraint index analysis have proved to be useful in constraining the model outputs. Generally, the behavioural model outputs produced realistic uncertainty estimates as well as acceptable simulations based on the assessment of the flow duration curves. The modelling results indicated that there is some degree of uncertainty that cannot be easily accounted for due to some identified data issues. The results also showed that there is still a possibility to improve the simulations provided such issues are resolved. The issues about the simulation of stream flow that were detected are mainly related to availability of data to estimate water use parameters. Another challenge in setting up the model was associated with establishing constraints that match the parameters for natural hydrological conditions for specific sub-basins and maintaining consistency in the adjustment of the model output constraints for other sub-basins. In an attempt to overcome this problem, the study recommends additional hydrological response constraints to be used with the Pitman model. Another main recommendation relates to the strong cooperation of relevant catchment management authorities and stakeholders including scientists in order to make information more available to users. The new hydrological insight is derived from the analysis of hydrological indices which highlighted the regional variations in hydrological processes and sub-basin response across the transboundary basins of Eswatini. The adopted modelling approach provides further insight into all the uncertainties associated with quantifying the available water resources of the country. The study has provided further understanding of the spatial variability of the hydrological response and existing development impacts than was previously available. It is envisaged that these new insights will provide an improved basis for future water management in Eswatini. , Thesis (PhD) -- Faculty of Science, Institute for Water Research, 2021
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- Date Issued: 2021-10-29
Developing taxonomic and trait-based approaches for assessing and predicting macroinvertebrate responses to elevated fine sediments in the Tsitsa River and its tributaries, South Africa
- Authors: Ntloko, Pindiwe
- Date: 2022-04-08
- Subjects: Water quality South Africa Mzimvubu River Watershed , Sedimentation and deposition South Africa Mzimvubu River Watershed , Aquatic invertebrates Effect of sediments on South Africa Mzimvubu River Watershed , Aquatic invertebrates Classification , Environmental monitoring South Africa Mzimvubu River Watershed , Analysis of variance , Multivariate analysis
- Language: English
- Type: Academic theses , Doctoral theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/294692 , vital:57245 , DOI 10.21504/10962/294692
- Description: Sedimentation of freshwater systems is one of the leading causes of water quality deterioration. The Mzimvubu River catchment, which includes the Tsitsa River and its tributaries, in the Eastern Cape is prone to elevated sediment impact due to dispersive soils that are easily erodible. In this study, taxonomy and trait-based approaches were used to assess the responses of macroinvertebrates to fine sediments in the Tsitsa River and its tributaries. Macroinvertebrates and environmental variables were sampled seasonally in winter, spring, summer and autumn of 2016 to 2018 in six selected sites, using the South African Scoring System version 5 as a collecting protocol. The sites were selected to represent a decreasing gradient of sediment influence from the highly impacted Sites 1 (Tsitsa upstream) 2 (Tsitsa downstream), and 3 (Qurana River) to moderately impacted Sites 4 (Millstream upstream) and 5 (Millstream downstream) and the least impacted Sites 6 (Pot River upstream), 7 (Little Pot River) and 8 (Pot River downstream), which were collectively referred to as the control sites. Analysis of basic physico-chemical variables, dissolved oxygen, pH, electrical conductivity, turbidity, total suspended solids, temperature and nutrients were undertaken seasonally over the study period. Sediments grain sizes were also analysed. All collected data were subjected to appropriate statistical tests – univariate and multivariate techniques. A fine-sediment-specific multimetric index was developed to monitor the impact of fine sediments on macroinvertebrate assemblages of the Tsitsa River and its tributaries. A total of 12 traits, resolved into 48 trait attributes, were selected to explore their distribution in relation to a fine-sediment stress gradient, and identify the trait-based signature of fine-sediment impact. A trait-based approach was then developed to classify South African macroinvertebrates into two groups: taxa that are potentially vulnerable to fine-sediment impact and those potentially resilient, based on the combination of traits possessed. Two-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) indicated that electrical conductivity, turbidity, embeddedness and total suspended solids were statistically significantly different between the sites. Apart from Dissolved oxygen, the remaining variables were statistically significantly lower at the control sites (P < 0.05). The two-way multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA) indicated global significant differences between sites and seasons. The two-way MANOVA also revealed that the interaction between the sites and seasons were statistically significant. The MANOVA indicated global combined interactive effects across the sites for suspended fine-sediment grain sizes, two-way ANOVA, followed by a Tukey’s post-hoc test, was carried out to indicate where the significant differences lay. The one-way ANOVA results indicated that very fine sand, very coarse silt, medium silt, and fine silt were significantly higher at Tsitsa upstream, Tsitsa downstream, Qurana tributary that is at Millstream upstream, Millstream downstream and Control sites. The rest of the grain sizes did not differ statistically between the sites. In terms of the settled sediment grain sizes, the volumetric analysis did not show considerable differences across the sites. Settled fine-sediment grain sizes were evenly distributed across the sites. Statistically, MANOVA results indicated no significant differences across sites or across seasons. The developed Sediment Multimetric Index indicated that the sites in the Tsitsa River and those in the Qurana River were highly sedimented during the wet season, but became moderately sedimented during the dry season, indicating that the index responded to seasonality. The sediment multimetric index indicated that the control sites were less sedimented during both the wet season and dry seasons, suggesting minimal seasonal effects at the control sites. Traits such as an exposed and soft body, collector-filterers, shredding, feeding on coarse particulate organic matter and a high sensitivity to dissolved oxygen were identified as fine- sediment-sensitive indicator traits. Identified fine-sediment-tolerant traits and ecological preferences included complete sclerotisation, a cased/tubed body, a preference for fine particulate organic matter, a high tolerance to dissolved oxygen depletion, and climbing and skating behaviours. Regarding the trait-based approach followed for classifying macroinvertebrates into vulnerable taxa and resilient taxa, the results revealed that the relative abundance and richness of the vulnerable taxa decreased predictably along the increasing gradient of sediment impact. However, the relative abundance and richness of resilient taxa showed no marked response to the impact of an increasing gradient of fine sediments. Overall, the present study makes a contribution to the complementary application of trait-and taxonomy-based approaches to freshwater biomonitoring. The trait-based approach enables predictions to be made and tested based on the mechanistic understanding of the mediating roles of traits in organism- environment interaction. A fundamental challenge, which showcases the limitation of the current study, is the sparse trait data on Afrotropical macroinvertebrates at the species or generic levels. In this regard, the iv trait-based approaches developed here were the family level instead of species or genus. This is the first study in South Africa to develop explicit trait-based indicators of elevated fine sediments as well as an approach for predicting macroinvertebrate vulnerability and resilience to fine-sediment effects, thus advancing the science and practice of freshwater biomonitoring. , Thesis (PhD) -- Faculty of Science, Institute for Water Research, 2022
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- Date Issued: 2022-04-08