Elasticity of the South African economy towards portfolio investments in BRICS countries
- Authors: Taonezvi, Lovemore
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/44537 , vital:38141
- Description: The emerging economies of Brazil, Russia, India, and China (BRIC) have been experiencing high growth rates since the turn of the millennium, whereas economic growth has been elusive in South Africa. As the newest member of BRICS, South Africa is expected to economically benefit through, amongst others, increases in capital flows, foreign investments by local firms, and increases in trade. Such benefits are anticipated to propel the country’s economic growth, thereby helping it to tackle its chronic problems of high unemployment, poverty, and economic inequality. The inclusion of South Africa in BRICS has, however, been viewed by critics as erroneous, since the country has, inter alia, poor economic growth; a small economy and population; and political instability. While foreign portfolio investment (FPI) inflows to South Africa have surged in recent years, economic growth has remained lacklustre. These flows have also faced sudden reversals, especially during the financial crisis of 2007-2009. With the potential to leverage its growth from intra-BRICS FPI inflows, it becomes of paramount significance for policymakers to have knowledge of the South African economy’s responsiveness to such inflows. With a theoretical framework based on the endogenous growth model, an augmented Cobb-Douglas production function was extended in this thesis in order to study the relationship between BRICS growth and intra-BRICS FPI in a dynamic panel data generalised method of moments (GMM) context. Similarly, the South African economy’s elasticity towards intraBRICS FPI was estimated. Vector autoregressive (VAR) analysis was used to evaluate the responsiveness of South Africa’s economy to an innovative shock to intra-BRICS FPI. Annual and quarterly data for the period 2000-2016 were used in panel data and VAR analysis, respectively. It was found that intra-BRICS FPI flows have a positive and statistically significant relationship with BRICS growth, while the elasticity of the South African economy to these flows is estimated at 0.007. Additionally, the efficiency and accessibility dimensions of financial market development do not assist FPI in promoting growth in BRICS, while financial market depth does. South Africa’s BRICS membership has a positive effect on its own growth, while for other BRICS nations, this membership is negative and insignificant. Credit rating downgrades have a negative and insignificant impact on economic growth, while the negative impact for inflation, government expenditure, and total labour employment is significant. Conversely, gross capital formation and trade openness have a positive and significant relationship with BRICS growth. The study also determined that a unit shock on intra-BRICS FPI resulted in negative fluctuations of South Africa’s economy within the first eight quarters before being positive and mostly constant thereafter. By supplementing domestic savings and facilitating the international integration of domestic financial markets, FPI promotes growth in BRICS. The short-term, ease of reversibility, and speculative nature of FPI are amongst some of the reasons for its destabilising effect on South Africa’s economy. Furthermore, inflation is a key determinant of FPI inflows to South Africa. Additional BRIC cooperation in FPI and trade; increased investments in domestic capital; reductions of inflation and corruption; investments in education and skills development; and stock market reforms are some of the recommendations for BRIC, and South Africa in particular. South Africa can consider prudential use of a mix of capital account controls, as well as fiscal and monetary policies to cushion its economy from FPI shocks in the short- to medium-term.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
Exploring a capacity development framework for South African foreign economic representatives
- Authors: Williams, Mario Rene
- Date: 2017
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa , Finance, Public South Africa -- Economic aspects
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MBA
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/13491 , vital:27210
- Description: Commercial trading in various formats has characterised relations between humans for centuries. However, in a world driven by higher levels of consumption, and where citizens demand higher returns for their hard-earned taxes, governments are becoming more active in ensuring favourable conditions for their own enterprises, either operating or seeking to operate, in foreign markets, as well as local enterprises that seek to extract value from foreign markets. The past failure of the markets to self-regulate, with the recent events of the 2008/09 market crash, gave fresh impetus for governments to play a more active role in ensuring favourable outcomes for their local economies. To be effective, requires the deployments of capable officials to fulfil this mandate. However, given that governments have traditionally not operated in the sphere of what is termed as ‘commercial diplomacy’, it is evident that a concerted effort needs to be made to have a skilled and capable workforce which can function in both the commercial and diplomatic market spaces across the world. Against the background sketched above, the South African government, with the dti spearheading the initiative, has been running capacity building programmes to train officials as designate FERs, to function as commercial diplomats in targeted foreign markets. This contrasts with its sister-department, DIRCO, which has established 126 foreign missions focusing on political diplomacy. Anecdotal evidence, and previous capacity building reports, have highlighted the need for a framework to regulate and inform the development of officials. Due to the framework’s broader focus, and the acknowledgement of the rich experiences of the officials being trained in the programme, it has been termed as capacity development. An initial review of the topic, revealed that there had been limited research into a framework that regulates the capacity development of foreign economic representatives (FERs), the term used for commercial diplomats of the South African government. Thus, the purpose of this study was to explore a capacity development framework (CDF) for South African FERs. This exploratory capacity development framework will then be tested, to inform the capacity development programme used for the training of designated FERs. To achieve this goal, a literature review of academic sources of information regarding the concepts of commercial diplomacy, capacity development and conceptual frameworks, was conducted. This led to the development of a qualitative questionnaire which was then distributed to all currently posted (27) and returned FERs (33), with 18 completed questionnaires returned. The questionnaire contained both closed and open-ended statements that delved deeper into the experiences and opinions held by the respondents. Using the dti as a case study, the content analysis method, which uses open coding, was applied to identify the theme and codes emanating from the data. This was assessed against the research questions (RQs) constructed in the research proposal, and was found to be in line with the sentiments flowing from the research data. The theme, indicated as capacity development and its concomitant codes (Process, Content, Technology and Management Support), thus formed the basis and skeleton of the exploratory capacity development framework. The codes were further analysed and sub-codes identified, which were incorporated into the exploratory capacity development framework. The analysis further revealed that, while the dti is committed to ensuring the designate FERs are adequately capacitated before being posted, much more could be done to improve the efficacy of the training provided. To this end, a number of gaps were identified from the data and these will need to be addressed to ensure that an effective capacity development programme is developed.
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- Date Issued: 2017
Financial development and economic growth in South Africa
- Authors: Mhango, Joseph
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Finance -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/41117 , vital:36358
- Description: Since the identification of financial development for economic growth by Schumpeter (1911), the importance of financial development has been emphasised. However, the nature of the relationship is unclear, whether financial development is demand-following, supply-leading, feedback relationship or no causal relationship with economic growth. The revolution of the relationship between finance and economic growth has left a void of the exact nature of the relationship and importance of financial development in literature and empirical evidence. In addition, the variation of the nexus between financial development and economic growth in developed and developing countries has left policy makers uncertain on the exact policy to employ. In awe of this, after the discovery of diamonds and gold in South Africa, policy makers have attempted to improve the access, depth and efficiency of the finance sector to spur economic growth. However, South Africa has been subject to apartheid, low economic growth, global financial crises, international sanctions, unemployment and other challenges to the finance sector. In light of this, this study aims to empirically investigate the relationship between financial development and economic growth in South Africa. The study used the recently developed financial institutions index and financial markets index by the International Monetary Fund to represent bank-based and market-based financial development. This study utilises annual data over the period 1980 to 2014. The study applied the Autoregressive Disturbed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) Granger – Causality, Impulse Response Function (IRF) and Variance Decomposition to uncover the relationship between financial development and economic growth in South Africa. The ARDL was selected over the Johansen Cointegration because the variables can be I (1) or I(0) before carrying out the bounds testing. It is more suitable to a small sample size. It uses a reduced form equation, and it provides unbiased estimates of the long-run model. Lastly, it can be transformed into an error correction model. The VECM Granger-Causality was chosen because it represents the short-run and long-run causalities. After selection of the optimal lag, the ARDL bounds testing shows that economic growth, bank-based financial development, market-based financial development, savings and investment have a long-run relationship in South Africa. However, after estimation of the coefficients, financial development has a positive relationship with economic growth, but insignificant and only savings and investment were significant in determining long-run economic growth. The VECM granger-causality results show that financial development (bank and market), savings and investment granger cause economic growth in the long-run. While, economic growth, market-based financial development, savings and investment granger cause bank-based financial development in the long-run. Therefore, a feedback relationship exists between bank-based financial development and economic growth in the long-run. In the short-run, it was clear that bank-based financial development positively causes economic growth. The causality results show that a feedback relationship exists between bank-based financial development and economic growth in South Africa in the short-run as well. The IRF shows that a shock in economic growth negatively and positively affects bank based and market-based financial development respectively. A shock in bank-based financial development causes a positive effect on economic growth. Lastly, a shock in market-based financial development causes a positive effect on economic growth. Whilst, the variance decomposition shows that fluctuations in economic growth are increasingly explained by financial development (bank and market). While, fluctuations in bank-based financial development are increasingly explained by market-based financial development, savings and investment. The fluctuations in market-based financial development are increasingly caused by economic growth, savings and investment. It is recommended that policy makers utilise bank-based financial development for economic growth and reduced unemployment, to increase savings for long-run economic growth. Furthermore, challenges against market-based financial development should be reduced in order to create a positive relationship between investment and economic growth in the long run.
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- Date Issued: 2019
Investigating the impact of public debt on economic development in South Africa
- Authors: Ntliziyombi, Ongezwa
- Date: 2024-04
- Subjects: Debts, Public -- South Africa , Debts, Public -- Management , Economic development -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Master's theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/65342 , vital:74093
- Description: The burden of public debt is an economic issue that has dominated debate in several areas of our country. The post-financial crisis era has seen an increase in public debt at the international, national, and sub-national levels. The study explores the impact of public debt on economic development in South Africa from 1970 to 2022 using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. Based on the regressions results, the null hypothesis is rejected in favour of the alternative which means that there is a negative relationship between public debt and economic development in South Africa. According to the research findings, South Africa should strengthen its production capacity and infrastructure in order to increase exports that would boost investment opportunities while allowing the economy to expand without resorting to debt. Policymakers must consider capital investment as a method of expanding the South African economy's productive capacity. , Thesis (MCom) -- Faculty of Business and Economic Sciences, School of Economics, Development and Tourism, 2024
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- Date Issued: 2024-04
Local economic development: disseminating global best practices to affect futuristic thinking in SA
- Authors: Perks, Sandra
- Subjects: Economic development , Economic development -- South Africa , f-sa
- Language: English
- Type: text , Lectures
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/20966 , vital:29423
- Description: The aim of Local Economic Development (LED) is to ensure that the economy of a community, region or country grows faster than the population, so that there can be surplus resources for future expansion (Rucker, Kinnett & Barbash 2012). This suggests that LED is more than economic development at local level. LED is often not viewed from an economic perspective but from a political perspective. Birkhölzer (2005:3) outlines four possible political LED viewpoints. The first perspective is “development from above” with an authoritarian state dictating to regional government and local authorities. This perspective has been proven flawed when political or economic turbulences occur. The second perspective is “development from outside” with reliance on outside investors to bring into the country the necessary resources, mostly funding. This perspective is risky from a sustainability point of view. The third perspective is the “wait and see” where migration occurs if there are problems. This perspective is equally flawed as it is becoming increasingly difficult to migrate because it is so costly, and also finding the right place to go can prove to be problematic. The last perspective is the “development from within” where people play a key role, and do not rely on government or the economy to serve their needs or solve their problems; this points to self-sufficiency.
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The determinants of foreign direct investment inflows into South Africa
- Authors: Campher, Renate
- Date: 2024-04
- Subjects: Investments, Foreign -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , South Africa -- Foreign economic relations
- Language: English
- Type: Master's theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/64907 , vital:73958
- Description: Through mechanisms such as knowledge transfer and productivity spillovers, foreign direct investment (FDI) is viewed as a critical driver of growth in developing economies. The flow of FDI into a country can benefit both the investing entity and the host government. This study employed ordinary least square (OLS) regression to examine the factors that determine FDI in South Africa using time series data from 1996 to 2021. The results demonstrate that gross domestic product (GDP), institutional quality, trade openness, the regulatory environment, and the real effective exchange rate (REER) all have positive effects on FDI flows into South Africa. To sustain and promote FDI inflows, the government of South Africa must ensure that the country remains attractive for investment by better promoting good governance, creating jobs to increase growth, maintaining free and fair elections in 2024, forging alliances with trading partners outside of Africa, speeding up all policy processes that may hinder the inflow of FDI, and decreasing government debt. , Thesis (MPhil) -- Faculty of Business and Economic Sciences, School of Economics, Development and Tourism, 2024
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- Date Issued: 2024-04
The effect of transport infrastructure investment on economic growth in South Africa
- Authors: Matsolo, Khanya
- Date: 2021-04
- Subjects: Transportation -- South Africa , Infrastructure (Economics) -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Master's theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/51699 , vital:43364
- Description: The objective of the study was to examine the effect of transport infrastructure investment on economic growth of South Africa. The time series data that covered the period from 2001-2019 using converted quarterly data was used. The study applied autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) to analyse the relationship between transport infrastructure investment and economic growth in South Africa. The empirical results shows that there is positive relationship between these two variables both in the short run and long run. Thus, it is recommended that policy makers should develop strategies that are aligned with effective and efficient transport infrastructure investment to enhance economic growth in South Africa. , Thesis (MPhil) -- Faculty of Business and Economic Sciences, Development Finance, 2021
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- Date Issued: 2021-04
The Effects of exchange rates on bilateral trade balances of SACU members states with their trading partners
- Authors: Mhaka, Simbarashe
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa , Purchasing power parity -- Econometric models
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/50371 , vital:42152
- Description: The fluctuations of exchange rates prevent countries from achieving stability in their external account records. Appreciation or depreciation has effects on international trade. This thesis examines the relationship between exchange rate fluctuations on bilateral trade balances focusing on the SACU region. There are several theories made to explain the relationship between exchange rate and trade balances. In examining this phenomenon, this thesis will unveil if the purchasing power parity theory, the Marshall-Lerner condition and the J-curve effect holds in the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) countries. This analysis is divided into three parts. The first part examines the stability of the exchange rate in the SACU countries in the long run as given by the purchasing power parity. To test for the Purchasing Power Parity theory, the recently developed powerful unit root test was applied with multiple smooth structural breaks of Omay (2015), based on a Fractional Frequency Flexible Fourier Form (FFFFF) on unique data of SACU countries covering the monthly period of 1995M01-2017M11. The Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) results show that the nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) of all SACU members does not provide evidence for PPP theory. In terms of the real effective exchange rate (REER), the PPP condition holds in the case of South Africa only. Further unit root investigations were carried out using the panel data for all SACU members, NEER and REER. The FFFFF test results for panel data shows strong evidence of the PPP while the standard DF test rejects PPP theory in the SACU’s NEER. Both the standard DF and the FFFFF tests show strong evidence of PPP theory in the case of SACU’s REER. The second section of the analysis examines the Marshall-Lerner condition employing annual data from the period of 1980-2017. The import and export model were examined firstly in a time series format and then in a panel data format. The time series data was examined using the ARDL (PMG) model while the panel data used the panel ARDL, fully modified OLS (FMOLS) method and the Dynamic OLS (DOLS) method of estimation. The PMG/ARDL model shows no evidence to support the existence of the Marshall-Lerner condition in the short run for all SACU members. However, only two out of five countries show evidence of the Marshall-Lerner condition in the long run. There is strong evidence of the Marshall-Lerner condition in Namibia and Botswana in the long run using the PMG/ARDL model.
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- Date Issued: 2020
The future of banking in South Africa towards 2055: disruptive innovation scenarios
- Authors: Koekemoer, Jonathan
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Finance -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , DPhil
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/40577 , vital:36184
- Description: The research effort developed four possible scenarios for the future of banking in South Africa towards 2055. The scenarios sought to stimulate thought on the possible, probable, plausible and preferred effects of disruptive innovation and regulation in the South African banking sector. The scenarios were developed in strict accordance with the 5 stages, and 9 steps, of the scenario-based planning process of futures studies. A conceptual futures studies model for banking in South Africa was developed to guide and clarify the way in which the research on South African banking can be integrated into the body of existing futures studies theory. The research study began with a comprehensive environmental scan, where various megatrends and driving forces are identified. A PESTEL analysis provided a deeper understanding of the driving forces. A Real-Time Delphi study was conducted in order to validate and prioritise the megatrends and driving forces that emerged. As a result, the research study was able to present four plausible scenarios that provide a better understanding of the future of banking in South Africa over the decades to come. The research presents banking as a complex, multi-faceted sector that is heavily influenced by advances in technology. The Real-Time Delphi research allowed the aggregation of expert knowledge. This is used as a guide to assist decision-makers and industry leaders in the adoption of appropriate business models and strategies towards a preferred future state. The research defined the Integrated Vision as the preferred future state for the South African banking sector towards 2055. The study closes a research gap where current strategies deviate from proposed strategies that drive the achievement of the Integrated Vision by 2055. Finally, contextually aligned practical recommendations are provided to assist decision-makers, industry leaders and change agents to work towards a preferable future state. The proposed recommendations are placed into broad categories of innovation, financial inclusion and collaborative regulatory relationships. The research makes a meaningful contribution to the South African banking sector by introducing a forward-looking, systems-thinking approach to disruptive innovation and regulation in the South African context.
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- Date Issued: 2019
The impact of Taxation and corruption on economic growth in South Africa
- Authors: Rabinda, Aluwani Malvin
- Date: 2022-12
- Subjects: Taxation , Corrupt practices , Economic development -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Master's theses , Thesis
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/59832 , vital:62444
- Description: Developing countries, such as South Africa, have been on a mission to reduce corruption, particularly in the public sector, and to collect as much revenue as possible through taxation to fund the government expenditures. Low levels of corruption, preferable zero and higher tax collections, can boost a country's economic growth and development by creating jobs and increasing economic activity, which leads to economic growth. South Africa is one of the economies that are characterised by high levels of corruption. For South Africa to attract more foreign investors in the country, it should ensure that resources are used efficiently and that any act of corruption is punished. This study looked at the effects of taxation and corruption on economic growth from 1975 to 2019. An econometric analysis technique was used in the study to test the impact of taxation and corruption on economic growth. The augmented Dickey–Fuller method was used to test for unit root. According to the results of the tests, unit root l(1) is rejected in favour of the stationarity alternative. The empirical analysis used the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) bounds testing approach of cointegration advocated by Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (2001) to examine for the longrun equilibrium among taxation and corruption on economic growth. The Wald causality test was also used to investigate the causal relationship between taxation, corruption, and economic growth. According to the Bounds test results, there is long-run co-integrating positive relationship between trade openness and GDP, gross capital formation, Corruption, and income taxation. Furthermore, when dependent variable was tested for longrun impact, the results confirmed that taxation and corruption have insignificant impact on economic growth. Trade openness, as a percentage of GDP, has insignificant positive relationship with economic growth in South Africa. Gross Capital Formation, as a percentage of GDP, is positively related to economic growth. Furthermore, short-run findings suggest a positive significant relationship between trade openness as a percentage of Gross domestic product. Corruption and income taxation have negative and insignificant effect on GDP in the short term. Furthermore, GDP and gross capital formation have negative relationship. V Government should also encourage the culture of transparency and accountability as far as corruption is concerned to stimulate economic growth. This will also create a culture where government officials are called upon to explain their government expenditure patterns and be held accountable for any misuse of any funds flowing into the country. , Thesis (MCom)-- Faculty of Business and Economic Science, 2022
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- Date Issued: 2022-12