An analysis of neural networks and time series techniques for demand forecasting
- Authors: Winn, David
- Date: 2007
- Subjects: Time-series analysis , Neural networks (Computer science) , Artificial intelligence , Marketing -- Management , Marketing -- Data processing , Marketing -- Statistical methods , Consumer behaviour
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:5572 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1004362 , Time-series analysis , Neural networks (Computer science) , Artificial intelligence , Marketing -- Management , Marketing -- Data processing , Marketing -- Statistical methods , Consumer behaviour
- Description: This research examines the plausibility of developing demand forecasting techniques which are consistently and accurately able to predict demand. Time Series Techniques and Artificial Neural Networks are both investigated. Deodorant sales in South Africa are specifically studied in this thesis. Marketing techniques which are used to influence consumer buyer behaviour are considered, and these factors are integrated into the forecasting models wherever possible. The results of this research suggest that Artificial Neural Networks can be developed which consistently outperform industry forecasting targets as well as Time Series forecasts, suggesting that producers could reduce costs by adopting this more effective method.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
A study of the factors influencing the success of internet marketing in small South African tourism businesses
- Authors: Elliott, Roger Michael
- Date: 2005
- Subjects: Tourism -- South Africa -- Management , Small business -- South Africa -- Management , Internet marketing -- South Africa , Strategic planning , Marketing -- Management , Communication in management
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: vital:1204 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1016252
- Description: The tourism sector has been identified as an industry that has the potential to make a substantial contribution to job creation, economic growth, and redressing past imbalances in South Africa as it has been recognised as an underexploited sector with considerable potential for growth. The majority of tourism enterprises fall within the definition of small businesses, which have been identified as the most appropriate enterprises through which the economic challenges facing South Africa can be addressed. Small businesses differ from their larger counterparts not only in terms of size, but also in regard to access to resources and marketing expertise. Not surprisingly, one of the issues identified as preventing this sector from reaching its full potential is access to markets. The focus of this study is to identify the primary factors driving the success of the use of the Internet for marketing in small businesses operating in the tourism sector in South Africa. If these factors can be identified, this will allow existing and emerging small businesses to access markets and retain customers more easily leading to a proliferation of these enterprises. A theoretical model was formulated from the literature in which the factors influencing the success of Internet marketing were identified. These factors can broadly be divided into generic (marketing or management) factors and Internet specific factors. The technological aspects of the Internet were not ignored, but regarded as a resource to be managed rather than an autonomous source of competitive advantage. This model was tested by making use of a large-scale empirical study. Convenience sampling was used and the data was collected from small tourism businesses (that is businesses with fewer than 100 employees) in the Western Cape, Eastern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal provinces of South Africa. The factors were identified using exploratory factor analysis and the Cronbach alpha coefficients were assessed to confirm the reliability of these scales. Structural equation modelling was used as the principal mode of statistical analysis to measure the relationships amongst the variables in the model proposed in this study. A correlation analysis was used to measure the impact of marketing objectives on the success of Internet marketing. The primary determinants of the success of Internet marketing in small businesses operating in the tow-ism sector in South Africa were identified by the empirical study as: Product champion Links Alliances Owner-manager knowledge Entrepreneurial orientation Owner-manager vision Customer orientation Marketing objectives Interestingly, one factor, Strategic planning, recorded a negative influence on the success of Internet marketing. This is possibly because the owner-manager felt that this was a redundant exercise given the dominant and pervasive influence of the owner-manager in all spheres of the business. Nevertheless, if small tourism firms consider the factors identified in this thesis as essential aspects in the use of the Internet for marketing, this will allow them to overcome one of the biggest hurdles to their prosperity, namely, the access to markets.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2005