An empirical analysis of the Austrian business cycle theory with respect to South Africa
- Authors: Nyika, Farai
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Business cycles , Business cycles -- Austria -- Econometric models , South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:9031 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/d1020867
- Description: In 2008, the global economy went into recession. Millions of jobs were lost, confidence in the financial markets fell and billions of dollars were lost by investors. Prior to the onset of the recession, the major economies of the world (USA, and Western Europe) had experienced a period of economic boom and expansion. Austrian Business Cycle Theory proposes that the roots of the current financial crisis and recessions in general, are found the actions of central banks through credit expansion and manipulation of interest rates. Central banks manipulate interest rates causing them to fall below the natural level, leading to credit expansion and malinvestments. Austrian Business Cycle Theory is based in capital theory. Capital theory incorporates the elements of time and money and allows the setting of a microeconomic foundation. The theory recognises that investment is not an aggregate (as do Keynesians and Monetarists). Opposition to empirical testing by Austrian economists has meant that few statistical analyses of Austrian Business Cycle Theory have been carried out. The apprehension toward empirical testing of Austrian Business Cycle Theory stems from some Austrian economists who argue that human behaviour cannot be captured in statistical terms. Recently, some Austrian economists have begun to do empirical research Austrian Business Cycle Theory and the thesis adds to that growing field. The thesis tests empirically for ABCT in South Africa by using Vector Error Correction Model and Granger causality techniques and the results are as follows: The Vector Error Correction Model shows that any disequilibrium adjustment in the structural equations influences correction mostly through changes in Manufacturing. The disequilibrium adjustment process for Investment is also found to have statistical significance. The results propose that Investment in South Africa is not inert. The Granger causality tests show that credit expansion causes interest rates to be artificially lowered leading to mal-investments. The main policy recommendation is that business cycles can be prevented by not manipulating interest rates and by not increasing credit availability.
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- Date Issued: 2012
Exchange rates and economic growth in emerging economies: the case of South Africa
- Authors: Sibanda, Bornapart
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Economic development , Currency convertibility -- South Africa , Foreign exchange -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , Foreign exchange administration -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , M Com
- Identifier: vital:11464 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1007045 , Economic development , Currency convertibility -- South Africa , Foreign exchange -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , Foreign exchange administration -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Description: This study examines the impact of exchange rate volatility and misalignment on economic growth in South Africa. It applies the Johansen co integration test and the vector error correction model on quarterly data for the period 1990:01-2010:04. Exchange rate volatility is measured as the standard deviation of both the nominal and nominal effective exchange rate. The study constructs three measures of exchange rate misalignment, with two of the measures constructed using the Producer Price Index and Consumer Price index based Purchasing Power Parity. The third measure was based on the difference between the nominal and effective exchange rate. Contrary to pre-dominant findings in the exchange rate literature, the study finds a positive and significant relationship between exchange rate volatility and economic growth and attributes it to composition of the country’s exports that are largely made up of commodities that act as essential inputs in many production processes. As a result, the variability of prices caused by exchange rate volatility is not expected to deter demand for these commodities. A negative and significant relationship between exchange rate misalignment and economic growth was found. The findings of the study show that it is important for monetary authorities to ensure that the exchange rate is always at an appropriate level in order to avoid the negative implications of exchange rate misalignment on economic growth.
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- Date Issued: 2012
Stakeholder management for urban development projects in South Africa
- Authors: Mgemane, Lesley Musa
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Economic development projects -- South Africa , Project management , City planning -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , DBA
- Identifier: vital:9014 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/d1018588
- Description: The study arose from a research issue that is both practical and theoretical. The apparent challenges of a stakeholder management nature in the execution of urban development projects in South Africa led to the conception of the study. However, the most compelling need for the study was the theoretical gap – in the urban development theory, in the projects theory, and particularly in the stakeholder management theory – on the management of stakeholders in the South African urban development projects. As a result, the value of the study is both managerial and scholarly. The urban development concept is understood to be referring to the development of urban areas for the purpose of improving the quality of life in the cities, and the development of the infrastructure to enable economic growth. Urban development projects, as vehicles for accomplishing urban development, are important for a newly industrialised economy (NIE) like South Africa. Also, as a result of the political past – in the form of a systematic preferential development based on racial segregation by the previous government, and the two decades of subjection of South Africa to economic and cultural isolation by the international community – South Africa has a huge backlog with regard to the two general purposes of urban development: social progress and economic progress. Consequently, urban development projects in South Africa are very critical and important, particularly for geopolitical and socio-economic reasons. Judging by the extensive negative media coverage, many of the South African urban development projects demonstrate poor stakeholder management. The list of urban development projects that have experienced stakeholder related challenges in South Africa is endless: the Johannesburg BRT project, the Gauteng Freeway Improvement project, the Transnet multi-product pipeline-construction project, the Chapman’s Peak toll-road project, the Kusile and Medupi power stations construction projects, are some examples. The project management profession and body of knowledge view stakeholder management in a serious light, actually a failure in adequately implementing stakeholder management in a project is tantamount to a failure of the project itself. There is also a consensus among numerous researchers that there is a general lack of knowledge for project managers on how to manage stakeholders, particularly external stakeholders. Stakeholder management is a poorly understood and, usually a very badly implemented project management discipline. Managing projects in Africa, and by inference in South Africa, can be particularly complex – given the involvement of multiple stakeholders and their historical, geopolitical, economic relationships, and cultural differences. The study set out to develop a framework to improve the management of stakeholders in urban development projects – by investigating the critical success factors that have an influence on stakeholder management success in urban development projects in South Africa. This study is important primarily because there seems to be no previous research conducted on this important project management discipline, stakeholder management of urban development projects; and there seems to be a neglect of stakeholder management duties by urban development projects agencies, and by inference, projects practitioners in South Africa. A theoretical space was created for this study in the fraternal literature of previous studies on critical success factors and/or stakeholder management in construction projects – as there seem to be none undertaken in the urban development environment, particularly in the South African context.
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- Date Issued: 2012
The role of export diversification on economic growth in South Africa: 1980 - 2010
- Authors: Mudenda, Caroline
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa , International trade , Exports -- South Africa , Capital movements -- South Africa , Human capital -- South Africa , Free trade -- South Africa , Foreign exchange -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , M Com
- Identifier: vital:11463 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1007044 , Economic development -- South Africa , International trade , Exports -- South Africa , Capital movements -- South Africa , Human capital -- South Africa , Free trade -- South Africa , Foreign exchange -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Description: This study examined the role of export diversification on economic growth in South Africa. The study used annual time series data for the period covering 1980 to 2010 and employed a Vector Error Correction Model to determine the effects of export diversification and possible factors that affect it on economic growth. Possible factors that affect export diversification considered as independent variables in this study include gross capital formation, human capital, real effective exchange rate and trade openness. Results of the study reveal that export diversification and trade openness are positively related to economic growth while real effective exchange rate, capital formation and human capital have negative long run relationships with economic growth. The study recommended the continual implementation of trade liberalisation by the South African government. The South African government is also encouraged to promote the production of a diversified export basket through subsidisation, promotion of innovation and production of new products.
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- Date Issued: 2012