The economic implications of trade policy reform in South Africa for the automotive industry in the Eastern Cape Province
- Authors: Onyango, Donald Otieno
- Date: 2000
- Subjects: Automobile industry and trade -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , South Africa -- Commercial policy
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MA
- Identifier: vital:936 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002669 , Automobile industry and trade -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , South Africa -- Commercial policy
- Description: South Africa is no longer a pariah state and has been fully integrated into the global family of nations. With the country’s accession to multilateral agreements like the World Trade Organization (WTO), there has been pressure on the government to abandon its hitherto protectionist trade regime in favour of free and fair trade. Trade liberalisation has had profound implications for the country’s manufacturing sector in general, and the automotive industry in particular, which has seen tariff protection radically slashed and import restrictions greatly eased. Not only has the market share of domestic producers fallen, but increases in exports have to date not matched those of imports. As a result there has been a deterioration in the sector’s balance of trade and a reduction in employment levels, at a time when the country desperately needs to create new jobs. Recent developments, however, suggest that this scenario may be set to change. The thesis applies orthodox neoclassical and heterodox approaches to trade policy to an assessment of the likely economic impact of trade liberalisation on the automotive industry in the Eastern Cape, and by extension nationally. The thesis argues that reliance on orthodox trade theory to inform the direction of trade policy, especially in a developing country context, is unlikely to bring about an adequate increase in the level of exports and employment. This is because liberalisation of the import regime is likely to increase import levels without necessarily stimulating export levels, a scenario which serves to negate the presupposed benefits of liberalisation. The study uses information from surveys conducted on both motor vehicle assemblers and component manufacturing firms to investigate the effect of trade liberalisation on the sector in the Province and finds that, by and large, the motor assemblers have not fared as badly as expected and have in fact positioned themselves to export more vehicles and components. The components sector has had to contend with increased competition from cheaper imports. The thesis, while acknowledging that, as far as possible, free trade is an optimal position, nonetheless argues that governments still have an important role to play in the promotion of industrialisation. The scope of government intervention should, however, be limited to selective interventions which are aimed at counteracting market failure and facilitating innovation and the diffusion of technological know-how. The thesis argues that institution of supply side measures, such as the encouragement of research and development (R&D), skills development and industrial training, is necessary for sustained growth in the manufacturing sector to be realised. The thesis also finds that, contrary to expectations, the liberalisation of the automotive sector has not had the desired effects. Despite an increase in the value of automotive exports and an overall trend towards reduced net foreign exchange usage, employment levels are on the decline. The thesis also finds that without major export initiatives by both motor vehicle assemblers and component manufacturers, the future of the industry will be placed in jeopardy, especially with reduced protection and incentives.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2000
The economics of state assistance to agriculture with special reference to future policy in South Africa
- Authors: Threlfell, R L
- Date: 1948
- Subjects: Agriculture and state -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1107 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1013399
- Description: [From the Introduction] The argument by which it is shown that, under a system of open competition, prices are determined in a way which secures to consumers a maximum aggregate of satisfaction consonant with the relative security of the means of production is the familiar material of many treatises on economics, and does not need to be repeated here. In Economics (as distinct from Politics) this argument provided in a simple form the logical justification for the advocacy of laissez faire in State policy during the early 19th century even though "it was the actual success of private enterprise and the inefficiency and corruption of Government control that caused laissez faire to be an acceptable policy". No-one, of course, contended that pure competition did in fact characterize the economic relations of the time. Quite the reverse. It was argued that if the hindrances to competition were removed, society as a whole would reap the benefits indicated by the theory.
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- Date Issued: 1948
The effect of interest rates on investment spending: an empirical analysis of South Africa
- Authors: Dakin, Nicholas John
- Date: 2016
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1131 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1021174
- Description: This thesis investigates the nature and strength of the relationship between short-, medium-, and long-term real interest rates and capital investment spending at both the aggregate and disaggregate levels in South Africa in order to determine whether changes in the real interest rate affect the level of capital investment in the economy. This thesis used quarterly data for the period 1987 to 2013. VAR modelling, variance decompositions, impulse response functions and Granger causality tests are used to explore the nature and strength of the relationship between interest rates and investment spending. It is found that interest rates explain very little of the variation in investment spending and seem to have little impact on investment (of any type). Furthermore, short-, medium- and long-term interest rates have different effects on the level of investment spending. A rise in short-term interest rates appears to decrease the level of investment spending in the long-run, whereas a rise in long-term interest rates results in an increase in investment.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2016
The effect of strike action on the value and volatility of the South African Rand
- Authors: Gordon, Ross Patrick
- Date: 2015
- Subjects: Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , Strikes and lockouts -- South Africa -- Economic aspects , South Africa -- Foreign economic relations , South Africa -- Economic conditions -- 1991- , Rand, South African , Dollar, American
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1124 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1020018
- Description: This study analyses whether the advent of strike action has an effect on the value and volatility of the South African Rand compared with the US Dollar. The literature suggests that strike action can have a significant effect on the exchange rate in terms of either value or volatility, and consequences can result that cause inefficiencies in the economy; inhibiting employment and economic growth. Strike action has become common place in South Africa, with 2012 alone recording 99 strikes, 45 of which were “wildcat” or unprotected strikes. This study uses GARCH and Intervention Analyses to determine what the resulting effects of the strikes might be on the exchange rate. The analysis used ZAR/USD exchange rate data for the period January 2000 to October 2013, and covered 72 of the most significant strikes in terms of lost man-days. The results are mixed, suggesting that the effects of strikes do not always conform to expectations (increased volatility and a depreciation in the Rand), and that outside factors affecting the global economy may have a more significant effect on the exchange rate than strikes on their own.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2015
The effects of trade policy on the development of the South African petrochemical industry
- Authors: Giantsos, John
- Date: 1995
- Subjects: Petroleum chemicals industry -- South Africa , Petroleum industry and trade -- Government policy -- South Africa , Petroleum chemicals industry , South Africa -- Commerce
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MA
- Identifier: vital:1014 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002749 , Petroleum chemicals industry -- South Africa , Petroleum industry and trade -- Government policy -- South Africa , Petroleum chemicals industry , South Africa -- Commerce
- Description: The objective of the research was to determine the role which South African trade policy played in shaping the development of the domestic petrochemical industry. The focus of the study falls on the domestic development of the petrochemical industry in general, and the polymer industry in particular. Three broad stages are distinguished in the domestic development of the petrochemical industry. Prior to the early 1970's development occurred primarily on an ad hoc basis, with the establishment of domestic production plants for most major petrochemicals. The development of the domestic petrochemical industry over the period from the early 1970's to the early 1980's was characterised by rapid growth in the domestic production of petrochemicals, while the period from the early 1980's to the early 1990's saw a significant slowdown in the annual growth rate for the domestic production of petrochemicals. The role of trade policy in the industry's development over each of these three periods could not be established conclusively. In each period a number of factors were identified which may have impacted on the industry's development. However, two factors do appear to have played particularly important roles in the industry's development prior to the early 1980's, namely strong growth in domestic petrochemical demand and the provision of a substantial degree of protection through quantitative import controls and tariffs. with regard to the industry's development over the period from the early 1980's to the early 1990's, a number of factors were identified which may have influenced trends in domestic petrochemical production, including the withdrawal of quantitative import controls and the progressive lowering of import tariffs, the depreciation of the rand in the mid-1980's, a slowdown in the growth of the domestic demand for petrochemicals, the fall in the international prices of petrochemicals in the early 1980's, and the fall in the international oil price in the mid-1980's. In view of the small size of the domestic petrochemical market it is recommended that local petrochemical producers should continue to expand their focus beyond that of producing solely for the requirements of the domestic market. In light of the key role played by the petrochemical industry in a modern economy, it is also recommended that the industry in South Africa receive more attention from policy makers than it has in the past.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 1995
The informal sector in the Eastern Cape: a case study of New Brighton and Kwamagxaki, Port Elizabeth
- Authors: Sofisa, Thembela Nicholas
- Date: 1991
- Subjects: Informal sector (Economics) -- South Africa -- Port Elizabeth , Self-employed -- South Africa , New Brighton (Port Elizabeth, South Africa) , Port Elizabeth (South Africa) -- Economic conditions , KwaMagxaki (Port Elizabeth, South Africa)
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MA
- Identifier: vital:934 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002667 , Informal sector (Economics) -- South Africa -- Port Elizabeth , Self-employed -- South Africa , New Brighton (Port Elizabeth, South Africa) , Port Elizabeth (South Africa) -- Economic conditions
- Description: Recently, researchers have shown enormous interest in the informal sector due to extensive poverty and rising unemployment trend in the South African economy. These problems have worsened in the Port Elizabeth economy, as most entrepreneurs have scaled down their operations or liquidated their businesses due to a structural decline in the manufacturing sector and periodic recessions in the national economy. Undoubtedly, the informal sector has become a reasonable economic alternative as far as income accumulation and employment generation. The present study shows that the informal sector is characterised mainly by self-employment and also the income from this sector has also improved the standard of living of most sampled households in New Brighton and KwaMagxaki. The aim of this thesis, then, is to evaluate the nature, extent, meaning and influence of the informal sector in the Port Elizabeth Black economy. However, this can only be achieved once the informal sector is placed within the appropriate theoretical framework. This is done by comparing and contrasting the different conceptualisations of the informal sector in the literature. In conclusion, the thesis combines the different conceptualisations of the informal sector in the literature with the empirical evidence from the Port Elizabeth townships' informal sector. The important findings of the study are: The informal sector is mainly characterised by distributive activities than productive activities. Women comprised 62% of the informal sector. Economically-active members of the economy are in the informal sector. Education levels in this sector are relatively low. The informal sector is characterised by one-man businesses with few employees who are also family members. There was no trace of migrants in the informal sector. The informal sector is characterised by linkages. Informal income alleviates conditions of poverty. Policies have to implemented for the development of the informal sector. Twenty-three percent of the households in New Brighton were in the informal sector and only 6% in KwaMagxaki. Although, this study focuses in Port Elizabeth, it is the intention that the results presented will provide a broad overview of what the informal sector is.
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- Date Issued: 1991
The interrelationships between foreign direct investment and economic growth in Africa
- Authors: Bolani, Lindelwa Mandisa
- Date: 2015
- Subjects: Investments, Foreign -- Africa , Economic development -- Africa , Africa -- Economic conditions -- 1960- , Africa -- Foreign economic relations , Gross domestic product -- Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1123 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1019885
- Description: There has been a long search for the keys to development and economic growth in Africa. This study investigates the relationship between FDI and economic growth over the period 2000-2012 using data from 48 African countries. On the aggregate regional level FDI and economic growth were found to be positively correlated during this period. Using panel data econometric techniques and the Panel Granger Causality test, results revealed that a bi-directional causality relationship existed between FDI and GDP. Thus, the results suggest that GDP is a requirement for increased investment, and at the same time is the result of increased foreign investment. Thus, the conclusion is that African policy makers are justified in increasing their attempts to create an attractive business environment for foreign investors, as it is beneficial for economic growth.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2015
The market efficiency hypothesis and the behaviour of stock returns on the JSE securities exchange
- Authors: Mabhunu, Mind
- Date: 2004
- Subjects: Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa , Stock exchanges -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1027 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002762 , Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa , Stock exchanges -- South Africa
- Description: While the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EHM) has been widely accepted as robust by many researchers in the field of capital markets, the hypothesis’ robustness has been under increased scrutiny and question lately. In the light of the concerns over the robustness of the EMH, the weak form efficiency of the JSE is tested. Stock returns used in the analysis were controlled for thin trading and it was discovered that once returns are controlled for thin trading, they are independent of each other across time. Some of the previous studies found the JSE to be inefficient in the weak form but this research found that the JSE is efficient in the weak form. A comparison is also made between the JSE and four other African stock markets and the JSE is found to be more efficient than the other markets. The developments on the JSE, which have improved information dissemination as well as the efficiency of trading, contributed to the improvement of the JSE’s efficiency. The improvement in operational efficiency and turnover from the late 1990s has also made a major contribution to the improvement in the weak form efficiency of the JSE. Theory proposes that if markets are efficient then professional investment management is of little value if any; hence the position of professional investment managers in efficient markets is investigated. Although the JSE is found to be efficient, at least in the weak form, it is argued that achieving efficiency does not necessarily make the investment manager’s role obsolete. Investment managers are needed even when the market can be proved to be efficient.
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- Date Issued: 2004
The nature of economic integration and co-operation within the South African region and a survey of economic benefits to member states
- Authors: Mutambara, Tsitsi Effie
- Date: 2001
- Subjects: Africa, Southern -- Economic integration , Southern African Development Community
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MA
- Identifier: vital:938 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002671 , Africa, Southern -- Economic integration , Southern African Development Community
- Description: The transformation of SADCC into the Southern African Development Community (SADC) has paved the way towards closer regional economic integration in southern Africa. The regional grouping no longer only focuses on sectoral cooperation, but is steadily moving towards increased cooperation in trade development and promotion, industrial development and the diversification of national economies, with the aim of increasing regional economic integration. A free trade area ranks second lowest in the steps towards the highest levels of economic integration. Thus, the signing of the SADC Trade Protocol, which serves to pave way for a SADC Free Trade Area, has initiated steps to facilitate and promote the formal economic integration of all countries in the southern African region. It has been noted that at various periods, the region has adopted a variety of approaches to integration. As such, the present study reviews the different approaches to integration, namely the market integration model, the neo-functional integration model, the development integration model and the theory of common markets. Since the essential question with which this thesis is concerned is whether, and to what extent, the benefits expected from SADC and SACU in terms of their aims and objectives have accrued to member states, an insight into the expected benefits arising from the application of each theoretical framework can help to facilitate an evaluation of the benefits which the countries have enjoyed from these two regional groupings. The thesis highlights that throughout the ten years during which the original SADCC was in place, it based its approach to regional integration on the neo-functional and development integration models, although the former tended to be more dominant. With the regional grouping transforming into SADC, the market integration model was adopted, even though the grouping still had features of the aforementioned approaches. The relevance of the three approaches can be seen in: (i) the continued importance of SADC's sectoral projects, particularly in the field of transport and communication: (ii) continued attempts to put in place a suitable regional) industrial development strategy and implement policies to attract foreign investment; and (iii) the signing of the SADCC Trade Protocol to facilitate the implementation of a free trade area. The thesis argues that member states have enjoyed considerable economic benefits from the SADC sectoral projects. However, in some cases, members have lost out on potential benefits as a result of projects failing to be implemented or completed, mainly due to inadequate funding. Further, delays and inefficiencies at some border posts constitute significant non-tariff barriers which could be a hindrance to intra-regional trade. Progress towards diversification of exports has been limited as the region still relies mostly on the export of the traditional agricultural and mineral raw materials. While all countries have made efforts to diversify their industrial bases, attempts at implementing a meaningful regional industrial development strategy have met with limited success. Intra-regional trade has been increasing over the years. Since the SADC Trade Protocol only came into effect in September 2000, the increased levels of trade integration in the region appear to have been a result of the bilateral trade agreements between countries, and the customs union between South Africa and Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia and Swaziland (BLNS), as well as the structural adjustment programmes and the significant growth experienced in some countries. Outstanding intra-regional trade volumes have been experienced within SACU. In trade terms, benefits have varied between member states, with the more powerful countries like South Africa, Zimbabwe and Mauritius experiencing substantial trade surpluses vis-a.-vis their trade, partners. Countries with bilateral preferential trade agreements have also benefited more due to increased access into each other's markets compared to those without or with bilateral trade agreements of an MFN nature. However, it is important to note that, despite the increase in trade integration in the region, southern Africa is still heavily dependent on the rest of the world for its export markets and as its source of imports. The study finds that intra-industry trade (IIT) exists within the region and, in a number of sectors, high IIT indices are recorded;--although some such sectors do not display significant trade - voIumes. The opening of the region through the implementation of the SADC FTA could promote the expansion of IIT .as-the free trade area )'Till create an enlarged regional market. As such, SADC could benefit from dynamic effects such as scale economies in production and marketing, with member states working on having complementary production structures so as to facilitate specialisation. The thesis argues that the potential for intra-regional trade expansion in the SADC FT A also exists bearing in mind trade complementarity between countries as well as revealed comparative advantages in different sectors. One of the benefits which have accrued to the region as a result of facilitating and promoting greater cooperation and deepening the integration process has been an expansion in cross border investment. The study finds that the 1990s witnessed a gradual increase in cross border investment to take advantage of investment opportunities in member states. South Africa has become the primary source of foreign direct investment flows to a number of SADC countries, with mergers and acquisitions being the dominant mode of its foreign direct investment. Cross border investment helps in supplementing low domestic savings, thus providing substantial parts of the shortfall in capital needed to finance economic growth and development. It can thus promote development in the industrial sector, transfer of capital, skills and technology, and development of infrastructure. Many SADC countries are unable to compete effectively due to lack of export supply capacity. The thesis suggests that capitalising on investment by South African firms could enhance local supply capabilities and raise export competitiveness. The study concludes that for market integration to succeed in the SADC region, the neofunctional and development integration approaches need to be actively pursued simultaneously, particularly with respect to infrastructural and industrial development.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2001
The new economic geography of SADC free trade area
- Authors: Hess, Simon Peter
- Date: 2004
- Subjects: Southern African Development Community Free trade -- Africa, Southern Economic geography Industries -- Africa, Southern
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MEcon
- Identifier: vital:932 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1001648
- Description: The current implementation of a free trade area in SADC has given rise to concerns that the present location of industry in the region will be adversely affected. Specifically, many of the smaller and less-developed countries fear that this change will result in a loss of their industry towards the more developed members, and particularly towards South Africa. This study uses the framework of the new economic geography to address these concerns. The new economic geography is a body of theory that has arisen in the last decade and allows for a dynamic analysis of the process of regional integration. Studies of such dynamic effects in the developing country context are exceedingly scarce, and particularly so in southern Africa. Another area of little research is in the comparison of the evolving industrial structure of different regional blocs. Thus, in response to this gap in the literature and in order to address the concerns of polarisation of industry within the SADC region, a two-pronged empirical approach is taken. The study first conducts a review of the spatial distribution of industry within SADC from 1970 to 1999. This is achieved through the calculation and examination of industrial locational Gini coefficients, measuring the relative degree of concentration of 28 ISIC (rev 2) industries for the years 1970, 1980, 1985, 1990, 1995 and 1999. Secondly, an empirical comparison is conducted with other blocs that are in the process of deepening regional integration, namely the European Union and Mercosur. Again, this is done through the calculation of locational Gini coefficients for individual industries for all three blocs at five year intervals from 1980 to 1995, and then for 1999. The average level of concentration within SADC is found to increase steadily from 1970 to 1990. Between 1990 and 1995, the level of concentration increases further, but at a lower rate, and, by 1999 industry begins to disperse. The Gini coefficient is a relative measure, and thus does not measure the absolute level of concentration. Thus, much of the increase in concentration seen is towards peripheral countries. To further interpret the Gini, the changes in concentration are compared to the absolute changes in manufacturing employment in South Africa. From this analysis, eight of the 28 industries analysed show particular tendencies to concentrate in the periphery. These are beverages, textiles, wearing apparel, paper and products, rubber products, other non-metallic mineral products, transport equipment, and professional and scientific equipment. Likewise, another six industries become more concentrated in South Africa over this time, namely food products, printing and publishing, industrial chemicals, petroleum refineries, miscellaneous petroleum and coal products, and electrical machinery. According to the Gini coefficient, the tobacco industry is by far the most concentrated, while the wood products industry is the most dispersed. It is also found that scale-intensive industries tend to be among the most concentrated. In the cross-bloc comparison, Mercosur has the lowest level of aggregate concentration with an average Gini of 0.08 in 1999. This compares with Ginis of 0.28 for the EU, and 0.22 for SADC. The EU has the largest increase in concentration over the period, while the concentration in Mercosur falls during the 1980s, increases in the mid 1990s and then falls again by 1999. A common theme, however, between all three blocs is a trend towards dispersion in the late 1990s. This is particularly apparent in SADC and Mercosur where the Gini decreases in value, while in the EU, the Gini only increases marginally in this period. Other studies of the EU have indicated that industry was starting to disperse at this time. This finding would be more apparent at a greater level of industrial disaggregation. The following industries are found to be agglomerated above the average level in all three blocs: tobacco, miscellaneous petroleum and coal products, and pottery china and earthenware. Conversely, transport equipment, paper and products, machinery except electrical, plastic products, rubber products, and fabricated metal products tend to be more dispersed across all three. Perhaps more interesting is that there appears to be some commonality between industries that become more agglomerated across all three blocs, while industries that dispersed tend to be region specific. The industries that show universal agglomeration tendencies are the highly sensitive wearing apparel and textiles industries, in addition to industrial chemicals, printing and publishing, iron and steel, and plastic products. In relation to SADC, the first two of these industries show an increased concentration in the periphery, as in the EU, while the remaining industries show tendencies to concentrate in the core. The new economic geography predicts that, as the presently high levels of transport costs begin to fall in SADC, industry will tend to concentrate in the core. However, the results of this study indicate that the effect on manufacturing is, to a large extent, sector specific, with some manufacturing industries concentrating in the core and others in the periphery. The study therefore concludes that the mass polarization of industry from the smaller countries in SADC towards South Africa is unlikely to occur with the further reduction in trade costs. Although certain industries may be attracted towards the core, the high degree of wage disparity in the region and present trade concessions from developed markets overseas towards the peripheral countries, will make these countries an attractive location, particularly for export orientated firms. Two main policy recommendations result from the study. Firstly, individual countries in SADC need to promote those industries that show concentration tendencies in their country. Secondly, in order for the periphery to maximize their gain from the free trade area, transport costs within the region need to be reduced rapidly and effectively.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2004
The new initiative of the East African Cooperation : opportunities, challenges and prospects
- Authors: Kimemia, Peter Njau
- Date: 2000 , 2013-04-25
- Subjects: International economic relations , Africa, East -- Foreign economic relations , East African Co-operation , Africa, East -- Economic integration
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MA
- Identifier: vital:1041 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1004743 , International economic relations , Africa, East -- Foreign economic relations , East African Co-operation , Africa, East -- Economic integration
- Description: The landmark inauguration of the East African Cooperation (EAC) on 14 March 1996 brought to the fore some key issues regarding regional economic integration in East Africa, particularly since it signalled the second attempt by Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania to form a regional economic bloc. The EAC's predecessor, the East African Community, had collapsed in 1977 in acrimonious circumstances. Prominent among the issues that led to the collapse of the East African Community was the perception of unequal gains from the integration scheme, with Uganda and Tanzania considering that disproportionate benefits were accruing to Kenya at their expense. With the new initiative, the question emerges as to whether the problems that caused the collapse of the Community will not beset the EAC and subject it to a similar fate. In an attempt to address this question, this study considers some of the theoretical issues relating to regional economic integration among countries at different levels of development, and attempts to provide an analysis of the new initiative of the EAC in the light of this theory and the history of the East African Community. The study also critically examines the objectives of the EAC and the integration strategy adopted by the three countries, and offers suggestions on the way forward. Among the arguments made in this thesis are that, contrary to the suggestions of orthodox static analysis, if the dynamic effects of integration are considered, then there may be important gains which may accrue to integrating states in the developing country context. It is also argued that different levels of development among integrating states need not necessarily be an impediment to economic integration. The study finds that, in spite of the enormous challenges facing the EAC, member states may be better off within the integration scheme than if they acted as individual units in a rapidly globalizing international system.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2000
The perceived visual impacts and attitudes of the Grahamstown community towards the Waainek Wind-Farm
- Authors: Cruickshank, Kyle Mark
- Date: 2014
- Subjects: Renewable energy sources -- South Africa -- Grahamstown Wind power plants -- South Africa -- Grahamstown -- Public opinion Wind power plants -- Social aspects -- South Africa -- Grahamstown Wind power plants -- Environmental aspects -- South Africa -- Grahamstown Wind power plants -- Economic aspects -- South Africa Wind turbines -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MEcon
- Identifier: vital:1085 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1011768
- Description: Renewable energy has become an important feature of most modern economies with clean and non-exhaustible sources of power being given a greater significance. Wind energy is one of the favoured renewable, as it is (2013) generally the cheapest and most mature technology available for commercial use. The South African government, as outlined by the Department of Energy's Integrated Resource Plan (IRP), aims to install 5 GW (Gigawatts) of wind energy by 2020. However, South Africa has had little experience in the wind energy industry which is limited to two projects, Klipheuwel (2002) and Darling (2008). Much effort has been dedicated to calculating balance sheet costs, which carries uncertainty due to the high reliance on country specific and site specific variables. An aspect which deserves more attention, and is often ignored, is the public‟s attitudes towards local wind farm developments, which have been known to "make or break" a project during the planning stages. Public backlashes have mostly been concerned with the visual "intrusiveness" of wind farms in the landscape. Detrimental effects on scenery, while seemingly innocuous, are acknowledged as being the single largest barrier to successful wind farm development. Individuals within an area become sentimentally attached to their surroundings, where significant rapid changes in the landscape are viewed as "damage". Economics recognises such declines in scenic resources as market failures, where an externalised cost is passed on to the public and is often not accounted for by private parties responsible for the liability. The primary objective therefore was to measure the magnitude of the visual impact, caused by the Waainek Wind Farm, on the Grahamstown community. Conventional NIMBY¹ (not in my back yard) reasoning, which seeks to explain local wind farm resistance, has attracted criticism with regard to its simplistic approach to wind farm problem identification. Contemporary arguments propose that NIMBY is a poor explanation for the trouble experienced on the local level because it groups problems into one all-encompassing term, leaving much of the discontent unexplained. Instead, the NIMBY explanation is really a broad set of unattended problems, largely resulting from the unsound practices present in the public participation process. Insufficient community involvement and disparities in the negotiation power structures have become the recent focus in wind farm literature. Essentially, these disparities force opposition groups to select factors which may seem more serious to developers, leading to ineffective remedial measures because the core underlying problems are not being remedied. Thus these considerations formed an additional area of investigation. No NIMBY effect was found for the Grahamstown community, as support for both the local and general level was roughly 80%. The public participation process on the other hand revealed that while many found the practices of the developer to be unfair, attitudes towards the wind farm were not adversely affected, especially for the lower income Grahamstown East areas. While the public participation process in this instance did not have any effect on people’s attitudes, careful inspection of the circumstances need to be given. Wind farms are new to South Africa, where the novelty and benefits are the focus of enthusiasm. Job opportunities as well as clean energy are positive drivers for attitudes; however given time, once the anticipation for wind farms dulls, real problems may be revealed. Thus it is crucial to implement good practice procedures during the public participation process, especially when national adoption rates of wind energy are low. Early implementation of an effective public participation process system will ensure that when major problems do arise in future projects, experience and institutional processes would have had ample opportunity to evolve appropriately over a period of time. The double bounded Contingent Valuation Method was used to value the impact of the wind farm on the Waainek scenery through a hypothetical scenario based procedure which presented pictures of the landscape before and after the wind farm had been installed. Based on the perceived impact of the wind farm, respondents were asked their Willingness to Pay to relocate the development, based solely on visual impacts. Learning design Contingent Valuation (Bateman et al., 2008) is a novel technique employed to familiarize respondents with the hypothetical market institution as well as the scenic goods being valued. Average Willingness to Pay was found to be R67 per month, with a final total monthly negative visual impact of R104,000 to R121,000 per month for the entire Grahamstown community. Grahamstown Central (middle-high income) residents were more likely to pay than Grahamstown East (low-middle income) East residents because of socio-economic differences present in each area. A ranking exercise determined that while negative visual impacts are present, the overall benefits derived from the wind farm are potentially much higher. Additionally, positive scenic improvements were found, but were not measured due to time constraints, and would have worked to reduce the net visual impact of the Waainek Wind Farm. ¹Problem where individuals support the general concept of wind power, but when it comes to local implementation, opposition to the development arises within the same group.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2014
The power of investor sentiment: an analysis of the impact of investor confidence on South African financial markets
- Authors: Argyros, Robert
- Date: 2013
- Subjects: Johannesburg Stock Exchange Stockholders Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa Stock Exchanges Investments
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1032 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1004169
- Description: Whether investor sentiment has any authority over financial markets has long been a topic of discussion in the field of finance. This study investigates the relationship between investor sentiment and share returns in South Africa. Determining this relationship will add to the existing work which has documented important determinants of share returns on the stock exchange in South Africa, as well adding to the inconclusive link between sentiment and the South African financial markets. Does sentiment influence share returns or do share returns influence sentiment? Using quarterly data for the period 1996-2010, the study makes use of the FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index as a proxy for investor sentiment, and the FTSE/JSE All Share Index to represent the South African financial markets. A regression analysis was conducted along with granger-causality tests, impulse response functions and variance decompositions in order to determine the nature of this relationship. The results showed that investor sentiment has a statistically significant relationship with share returns in South Africa. However, sentiment is only able to account for a very small portion of the variation in returns, with returns able to account for a larger portion of the variation in sentiment. Therefore investor sentiment is not a suitable predictor of share returns in South Africa. In addition, granger-causality tests indicate that returns are actually the leading indicator, suggesting that changes in South African investors’ confidence levels occur following changes in the state of the JSE. The limitations of the study include the infrequent nature of the sentiment measure used, thereby failing to capture important changes in sentiment and their immediate impact on financial markets. In addition, the sentiment of foreign investors must be taken into account due to the large foreign investment in the JSE.
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- Date Issued: 2013
The preservation and standardisation of South African hides and skins
- Authors: Kritzinger, Carl Cronje
- Date: 1946
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: vital:21052 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/6157
- Description: During the past fifty years the problems of the leather industry have been tackled from various aspects by scientific research workers all over the world, and "works control" today forms one of .the important foundation stones of efficiently run tanneries and footwear factories. The raw materials of the tanning industry, hides and skins, constitute the largest proportion of the cost of production, and it is ' only natural that the improvement of these valuable raw materials should be given primary attention by any leather scientist. Until only a few years ago, however, the South African hide and skin industry was at a serious ·disadvantage in that it had to base recommendations for improved production methods almost exclusively on overseas experience and practice. The importance of the differences existing between South Africa and European or American countries with regard to climate, slaughtering, hide and skin production in general, transport and sale, however, necessitates a different approach to our specific problems. The overseas hide and skin industry has had, since the beginning of this century, the support and particularly the guidance of scientific research; but it was not until 1935, when, through the support of the Hide and Skin advisory Board, Prof. W. F. Barker founded the original Tanning, Hides and Skins Research Department at Rhodes University College, Grahamstown, that science actively entered the field of hide and skin production in this country. Much of the work done had of course to be based on the results obtained by overseas research institutions, and the adaptation of such results to suit our own problems for some time formed a considerable part of the investigations undertaken. This thesis embodies the results of work undertaken by the writer since 1943 on specific problems of the South African hide and skin industry. Much of the work has already received publication through the Circulars and Journals of this Institute, but it is embodied here again in order to maintain the continuity. The attitude throughout has been to evolve methods of production suited to our own conditions, and the adoption of the recommendations contained in this thesis should lead to improvement in the quality of our hides and skins. Much still remains to be done, and it is the sincere hope of the writer that this work will stimulate and form the basis for subsequent investigations. For that reason more or less detailed descriptions are given of all experiments conducted, and the theory of curing in its relation to tanning is briefly discussed . The literature in each of the four Parts has been attached at the end of that Part to facilitate reference work. At the same time, however, the writer kept in mind the requirements of the trade itself, therefore much of the work is discussed in popular terms. It is hoped that the correct balance between the two extremes has been arrived at.
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- Date Issued: 1946
The production and marketing of South African Maize since 1910, with special reference to the years 1954 to 1966
- Authors: Brits, Rudolph Nieuwoudt
- Date: 1969
- Subjects: South Africa. Maize Board , Corn industry -- South Africa , Corn -- South Africa -- Marketing , Corn -- South Africa -- Marketing -- Government policy
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: vital:1104 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1013386
- Description: From Introduction: There is no evidence available that maize was known in the old world in ancient times. Seeds of barley and wheat have been found in ancient near eastern sites, but never has there been any trace of maize at all. Furthermore, maize as a plant is not mentioned in the Bible, and neither Greek nor Chinese literature makes any reference to maize. There is, therefore, nothing that suggests that maize was known in the Old world before about 1492. However, at that time, Christopher Columbus returned with a report about a new grain called "Maiz". At a later date explorers visiting America found that maize was being grown and consumed by the Red Indians in places as far apart as Canada and Chile. The consensus of opinion is, therefore, that maize originated in America and was only subsequently imported into Europe. However, in a very excellent paper, Dr. M.D.W. Jeffreys comes to the very convincing conclusion that "Maize, a non-self-propagating American plant, was introduced to east African littorals before the Portuguese rounded the Cape and was seen by the Chinese navigators at Melinde Circa 1414… Maize was brought to the Indian Ocean littorals by Arabs before 1400. Maize was brought into southern Africa by the Nguni by 1400 and later by the baVenda. Maize was introduced by the Dutch in 1658. There is no evidence that maize was introduced by the Portuguese. Irrespective of the exact date when maize was introduced into South Africa, it was only from the year 1840 that there was any real agricultural development in South Africa. At this date, all those who had participated in the Great Trek had more or less settled down, and substantial areas were planted with wheat, maize and oats.
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- Date Issued: 1969
The relationship between accounting choices and share prices : a study of South African listed companies
- Authors: Bunting, Mark
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: Financial statements -- South Africa , Accounting -- South Africa , Managerial accounting -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:989 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002724 , Financial statements -- South Africa , Accounting -- South Africa , Managerial accounting -- South Africa
- Description: It is widely assumed that the managers of companies behave in a self-interested and opportunistic manner when making the discretionary accounting choices that are applied in the preparation of published financial reports. Empirical research has found evidence for this in the United States, Britain, Spain, France and Australia, amongst other countries. There has, however, been no prior work of a similar nature in a South African context. The purpose of this study is to extend this body of work by examining the relationship between a number of potentially opportunistic (profit-increasing, income-smoothing and solvencyimproving) accounting choices made by the managers of South African listed companies, and growth rates in the share prices of those companies. Data in respect of thirty-nine medium-sized South African listed companies are analysed for evidence of the expected positive relationship between opportunistic accounting choices and share price growth. No evidence is found for this relationship. This may be due to limitations in the research design, inadequacies in the interpretation of the agency theory from which the hypotheses are developed, or a combination of both. Refinements in the research design or a re-interpretation of the theory may be successful in addressing these matters as part of future research efforts.
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- Date Issued: 2009
The relationship between bank concentration and the interest rate pass through in selected African countries
- Authors: Mangwengwende, Tadiwanashe Mukudzeyi
- Date: 2010
- Subjects: Interest rates -- Effect of inflation on -- Africa , Monetary policy -- Africa , Prime rate , Prime rate -- Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:942 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002675
- Description: Given the importance of monetary policy in the operation of a successful modern economy and the use of official interest rates as tools in its implementation, this study investigates the implications of changing bank concentration on the operation of the Interest Rate Pass Through (IRPT) of official rates to bank lending and deposit rates. This is an issue made more poignant by growing mergers, acquisitions and bank consolidation exercises around the world that have brought interest to their implications for economic performance. However, with contention high in the industrial organisation theory on the likely relationship between bank concentration and the IRPT, and the outcomes of empirical investigations producing conflicting evidence, the desire to investigate the issue in the African context necessitated a thorough empirical investigation of four African countries (South Africa, Botswana, Nigeria and Zambia). This study not only extended the investigation of the issue to the African context, but it merged different IRPT measurement techniques that had not been jointly applied to this particular issue, namely; Symmetric and Asymmetric Error Correction Models, Mean Adjustment Lags, Ordinary Least Squares estimations and Autoregressive Distributed Lag models. These measures of the IRPT were compared with three firm concentration ratios on two different levels of analysis, one, over the entire period and, another, through eight year rolling windows. The results reveal that bank concentration can sometimes be related to the speed and magnitude of the IRPT but that these relationships are not consistent amongst the countries, over the entire sample period or across the two levels of analysis, suggesting reasons why empirical results have arrived at contrasting conclusions. The results revealed more evidence of a relationship between bank concentration and the magnitude of the IRPT than between bank concentration and the speed of the IRPT. Furthermore, where relationships were identified there was evidence supporting both the structure conduct performance hypothesis and the competing efficient market hypothesis as the true representation of the relationship between bank concentration and the IRPT. The key implication of the result for African countries is that increased bank concentration through bank consolidation programmes should not be automatically regarded as detrimental to the effective implementation of monetary policy through the IRPT. Consequently,banking sector regulation need not stifle bank consolidation and growth to preserve monetary policy effectiveness. Rather, since the relationship cannot be neatly represented by a single theory or hypothesis each country must determine its own interaction between bank concentration and its IRPT before policies regarding the banking sector concentration and effective monetary policy, through the use of official interest rates, are determined.
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- Date Issued: 2010
The relationship between financial development and manufacturing sector growth: evidence from Southern African Customs Union countries
- Authors: Moshabesha, Mosili
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Economic development -- Case studies -- Africa, Southern Entrepreneurship -- Case studies -- Africa, Southern Southern African Customs Union
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:990 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002725
- Description: Extensive research has been done on the relationship between financial development (FD) and growth (with the main focus on economic growth). Theoretical models and most of the conclusions reached stipulate that the development of a financial system is one of the essential ingredients for economic growth. A developed financial system is able to provide financial services efficiently to the real sector. This study examines the relationship between FD and manufacturing sector growth of the SACU countries. The study first reviews the theoretical and empirical literature of FD and growth (economic and manufacturing sector). This gives a full understanding of the topic before attempting to empirically study it. It also helps in the selection process of the model and variables to be employed in the study. A balanced panel for four SACU countries, namely Botswana, Lesotho, RSA and Swaziland, for the period 1976 to 2008 was estimated using Zellner‟s Seemingly Unrelated Regression Estimation (SURE) method. Namibia was omitted because of limited data. The SURE model was selected because it performs better than ordinary least squares (OLS) estimation of individual equations in cases where the countries studied can be affected by similar external shocks because they are in the same economic region and also have country specific structural differences which could affect their economic growth. Two measures of FD were used: credit to the private sector provided by commercial banks (FIC) and the ratio of liquid liabilities of commercial banks to GDP (LL). Manufacturing sector growth was measured by manufacturing value added to GDP. The results of the relationship between manufacturing growth and FD were very weak across the countries. The model that used FIC performed better, there was a negative significant relationship found in RSA and Swaziland, while with the model that used LL, all the countries gave an insignificant relationship. The results for Swaziland were very consistent with the past findings of the relationship between FD and economic growth in the country (for example Aziakpono (2005a)). This may be because of the high share of the manufacturing sector in GDP. Theory suggests that a well-developed financial system will have a positive impact on growth, but this was not the case in RSA and Botswana, where in some cases FD had a negative impact on the growth of the sector. The analysis of the countries‟ manufacturing sector development shows that the sector plays an important role in the economies of the SACU countries, especially in terms of employment and exports. The coefficients of trade openness are generally positive, though not significant in some cases. The other control variables gave mixed results across the counties and across the models. Based on the findings, the countries have to develop strategies that will improve entrepreneurial skills. Also the financial development in the small SACU countries is essential in order for all the sectors in the economy to benefit from the financial sector and in turn increase economic growth.
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- Date Issued: 2011
The struggle for national independence in its international setting : its economic and political background and its manifestation in the Fourth Committee of the United Nations General Assembly
- Authors: Lumsden, Geoffrey S
- Date: 1957
- Subjects: United Nations. General Assembly Self-determination, National Sovereignty Economics -- Political aspects Economic policy
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: vital:1091 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1012790
- Description: The decade following the close of the Second World War has been dominated throughout by the clash of political power of the United States and the Soviet Union. Their wartime alliance has crumbled. New, antagonistic alliances have come into existence. The so-called 'EastWest' split, polar in its effect, has forced the admission that prospects of stable peace depend on how successfully bridges can be made to span the gulf. This over-riding and pervading reality has blinded us to the importance of another struggle, which is everywhere mounting in force and intensity and which history may well record as a dominant theme of the twentieth century -- the world-wide struggle for independence. In some cases it has produced revolution and violence: full-scale wars have been fought in its cause in Indonesia and Indo-China; military engagements have taken place in Kenya and Tunisia; Cypriots and British garrison forces have exchanged fire; Malayans have rioted; and 'incidents' too numerous to detail have been reported from a great variety of countries where political dependence exists. Intro., p. 1.
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- Date Issued: 1957
The term structure of interest rates and economic activity in South Africa
- Authors: Shelile, Teboho
- Date: 2007
- Subjects: Finance -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions -- 21st century
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:994 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002729 , Finance -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions -- 21st century
- Description: Many research papers have documented the positive relationship between the slope of the yield curve and future real economic activity in different countries and different time periods. One explanation of this link is based on monetary policy. The forecasting ability of the term spread on economic growth is based on the fact that interest rates reflect the expectations of investors about the future economic situation when deciding about their plans for consumption and investment. This thesis examined the predictive ability of the term structure of interest rates on economic activity, and the effects of different monetary policy regimes on the predictive ability of the term spread. The South African experience offers a unique opportunity to examine this issue, as the country has experienced numerous monetary policy frameworks since the 1970s. The study employed the Generalised Method Moments technique, since it is considered to be more efficient than Ordinary Least Squares. Results presented in this thesis established that the term structure successfully predicted real economic activity during the entire research period with the exception of the last sub-period (2000-2004) when using the multivariate model. In the periods of financial market liberalisation and interest rates deregulation the term structure was found to be a better predictor of economic activity in South Africa. These findings emphasise the importance of considering the prevailing economic environment in testing the term structure theory.
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- Date Issued: 2007