- Title
- Efficient market hypothesis : testing weak-form efficiency on the Johannesburg stock exchange
- Creator
- Eaton, Bradley Hayes
- Subject
- Efficient market theory
- Date Issued
- 2020
- Date
- 2020
- Type
- Thesis
- Type
- Masters
- Type
- MCom
- Identifier
- http://hdl.handle.net/10948/47895
- Identifier
- vital:40396
- Description
- Understanding financial markets is paramount in acknowledging the flow of domestic and foreign funds over time. In this study, net market capitalisation price and simple return characteristics were investigated for the period from January 2009 to December 2017. An empirical, statistical approach was used to explore the possibility that, since the 2008 financial crisis, forward-looking, aggregate market and financial-oriented equity indices have conformed to the Efficient Market Hypothesis. Accordingly, monthly observations were made to ensure long-run traits were identified and scrutinised. Such revelations are important for portfolio diversification, risk, and expected return potentials with respect to South African equity markets. Based on the study, it was found that random walks were evident in both the price and return time-series as a result of significant stochastic price action, supported by evidence suggesting non-normality of price and return distributions. Unit root and stationarity modelling confirmed such traits. However, significant trending behaviours were evident in the auto-correlation figures with regards to prices, despite mean-reverting and stochastic influences. Therefore, it was concluded from the results of the study that the respective time-series were weak-form efficient. The empirical component was supplemented by a comprehensive investigation into the market determinants of financial market inefficiencies, including partial correlations, contagion effects, momentum, financial bubbles, and liquidity issues. Secondary objectives of the study included identifying the roles of security exchanges and the effect of international linkages, as a result of globalisation, on the financial markets. Increased macro-economic and systems integration has led to positive and negative connotations for business cycles. Spill-over effects into global equity markets are evident as can be seen through the co-integration of leading world exchanges, both in the developed and emerging market spheres. Fundamental to this study was the sensitivity of South African equity markets to recessionary pressures, as analysed through the efficiency of aggregated equity indices.
- Format
- viii, 129 leaves
- Format
- Publisher
- Nelson Mandela University
- Publisher
- Faculty of Business and Economic Sciences
- Language
- English
- Rights
- Nelson Mandela University
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| Thumbnail | File | Description | Size | Format | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| View Details Download | SOURCE1 | Eaton, BH 214167682 Dissertation April 2020.pdf | 1 MB | Adobe Acrobat PDF | View Details Download |