Market timing and portfolio returns: an empirical analysis of the potential profitability of buy-sell strategies, based on South African equities 2009-2018
- Authors: Mulweli, Ramulongo
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Stocks -- Charts, diagrams, etc. , Investment analysis -- South Africa , Stocks -- South Africa , Stocks -- South Africa -- Cast studies
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/144487 , vital:38350
- Description: South Africa’s financial markets have become larger and more complex over recent decades. The number of market participants who are using technical analysis techniques to predict the market’s movement has been growing rapidly. This research aims to investigate if historical share prices can be used when forecasting the market’s direction and to examine the profitability of the Japanese candlestick patterns. The study is based on ten companies selected from the JSE top 40 2019 composition. These are Aspen Pharmacy Holding, Capitec Bank Holding LTD, Discovery LTD, Kumba Iron Ore LTD, Mondi PLC, Mr. Price Group LTD, MTN Group LTD, Naspers LTD, SASOL LTD, and Shoprite Holdings LTD. These were selected from the JSE top 40 based on market capitalization and sector. This research analyzes eight candlestick reversal patterns; four are bullish patterns namely: doji star, hammer, bullish engulfing and the piercing lines and the other four are bearish patterns namely: shooting star, hanging man, bearish engulfing and the dark cloud cover. The ARCH and GARCH models are used to test for correlation between past share prices and future share prices and the binomial test and the mean return calculations were used to test the profitability of candlestick patterns. The sample is from Thomson DataStream 2019 and IRESS SA 2019 and covers ten years with 2496 observations starting from 02 January 2009 to 31 December 2018. The findings from the ARCH and GARCH tests revealed that there is a serial correlation between the returns from the previous day and the returns for the current day. The results from the mean returns and the binomial tests show strong evidence that the shooting star, hanging man, bearish engulfing and the bulling engulfing are statistically significant in predicting the share price movements. On the other hand, there was no evidence that the dark cloud cover, piercing lines, and the bullish doji can predict share price movements. Additionally, further studies on this topic could be improved by adding different candlestick patterns and the total number of companies analyzed. The results could also be improved by analyzing the candlestick reversal patterns when they are used with other trading rules such as support resistance levels and oscillators.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
- Authors: Mulweli, Ramulongo
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Stocks -- Charts, diagrams, etc. , Investment analysis -- South Africa , Stocks -- South Africa , Stocks -- South Africa -- Cast studies
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/144487 , vital:38350
- Description: South Africa’s financial markets have become larger and more complex over recent decades. The number of market participants who are using technical analysis techniques to predict the market’s movement has been growing rapidly. This research aims to investigate if historical share prices can be used when forecasting the market’s direction and to examine the profitability of the Japanese candlestick patterns. The study is based on ten companies selected from the JSE top 40 2019 composition. These are Aspen Pharmacy Holding, Capitec Bank Holding LTD, Discovery LTD, Kumba Iron Ore LTD, Mondi PLC, Mr. Price Group LTD, MTN Group LTD, Naspers LTD, SASOL LTD, and Shoprite Holdings LTD. These were selected from the JSE top 40 based on market capitalization and sector. This research analyzes eight candlestick reversal patterns; four are bullish patterns namely: doji star, hammer, bullish engulfing and the piercing lines and the other four are bearish patterns namely: shooting star, hanging man, bearish engulfing and the dark cloud cover. The ARCH and GARCH models are used to test for correlation between past share prices and future share prices and the binomial test and the mean return calculations were used to test the profitability of candlestick patterns. The sample is from Thomson DataStream 2019 and IRESS SA 2019 and covers ten years with 2496 observations starting from 02 January 2009 to 31 December 2018. The findings from the ARCH and GARCH tests revealed that there is a serial correlation between the returns from the previous day and the returns for the current day. The results from the mean returns and the binomial tests show strong evidence that the shooting star, hanging man, bearish engulfing and the bulling engulfing are statistically significant in predicting the share price movements. On the other hand, there was no evidence that the dark cloud cover, piercing lines, and the bullish doji can predict share price movements. Additionally, further studies on this topic could be improved by adding different candlestick patterns and the total number of companies analyzed. The results could also be improved by analyzing the candlestick reversal patterns when they are used with other trading rules such as support resistance levels and oscillators.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
The impact of unanticipated news announcements by the US Federal Reserve On South African stock returns
- Authors: Sibanda, Lorna
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Monetary policy -- United States , International finance , South Africa -- Foreign economic relations -- United States , United States -- Foreign economic relations -- South Africa , Banks of issue -- United States , Investments -- South Africa , Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa , Stocks -- Rate of return , Rate of return -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/94703 , vital:31070
- Description: This thesis analyses whether monetary policy announcement shocks are transmitted across countries, with special emphasis on the impact of US Federal Reserve announcements on the South African stock market. Monetary policy is an important source of economic news and affects the risk perceptions of market participants. This study will improve the understanding of stock price determinants and possibly influence SA monetary policy in guarding against possible shocks originating from abroad. Using Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcements over the period 2008 – 2014, the research studied changes in volatility of the South African FTSE/JSE All Share Index returns over this period. An event study and GARCH model approach was adopted to reach the goals of the analysis. The findings were a statistically insignificant connection between SA stock returns and both anticipated and unanticipated US Federal Reserve announcements. Over the sample period, each shock to SA stock returns persisted for approximately 4-5 months. Although SA stock return volatility demonstrated clustering behaviour (indicating sensitivity to economic shocks), the research could not find an obvious relationship between these spikes in volatility and US Federal Reserve announcements. It is concluded that South African stock returns do not change in response to unexpected US monetary policy announcements.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
- Authors: Sibanda, Lorna
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Monetary policy -- United States , International finance , South Africa -- Foreign economic relations -- United States , United States -- Foreign economic relations -- South Africa , Banks of issue -- United States , Investments -- South Africa , Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa , Stocks -- Rate of return , Rate of return -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/94703 , vital:31070
- Description: This thesis analyses whether monetary policy announcement shocks are transmitted across countries, with special emphasis on the impact of US Federal Reserve announcements on the South African stock market. Monetary policy is an important source of economic news and affects the risk perceptions of market participants. This study will improve the understanding of stock price determinants and possibly influence SA monetary policy in guarding against possible shocks originating from abroad. Using Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcements over the period 2008 – 2014, the research studied changes in volatility of the South African FTSE/JSE All Share Index returns over this period. An event study and GARCH model approach was adopted to reach the goals of the analysis. The findings were a statistically insignificant connection between SA stock returns and both anticipated and unanticipated US Federal Reserve announcements. Over the sample period, each shock to SA stock returns persisted for approximately 4-5 months. Although SA stock return volatility demonstrated clustering behaviour (indicating sensitivity to economic shocks), the research could not find an obvious relationship between these spikes in volatility and US Federal Reserve announcements. It is concluded that South African stock returns do not change in response to unexpected US monetary policy announcements.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
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