Monetary policy transmission in South Africa: a comparative analysis of credit and exchange rate channels
- Authors: Sebitso, Nathaniel Maemu
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Monetary policy -- South Africa , Foreign exchange market -- South Africa , Financial crises -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions , South Africa -- Economic policy , Banks and banking -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1129 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1020851
- Description: This thesis focuses on monetary policy transmission and particularly seeks to examine the impact of credit and exchange rate channels of monetary policy transmission in the South African economy. South Africa's monetary policy has gone through several changes over the past thirty years. In this respect, there is a need for robust empirical evidence on the effects of these channels on inflation and output. The thesis employs a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model to identify monetary transmission in South Africa for the period 1994:q4 - 2008:q2. The form of the SVAR used in this thesis is based on the fact that South Africa is a small open economy, which means that external shocks are an important driver of domestic activity. The impulse responses and variance decomposition results show that the repo rate, credit and exchange rate play a role in terms of their impact on inflation and output. The dynamic responses to the identified monetary policy shock are consistent with standard theory and highlight the importance of the interest rate channel. A shock to the interest rate, increasing it by one standard deviation, results in a persistent fall in credit. The response of output is immediate as it falls and bottoms out within the second year. Inflation shows a lagged response, it is positive within the first year as the exchange rate depreciates but in subsequent quarters inflation responds negatively as expected. Inflation falls and reaches a minimum by approximately eight quarters then moves towards baseline. The exchange rate shows delayed appreciation. The shock to the repo interest rate leads to an immediate depreciation of the exchange rate in the first two quarters as output declines, followed by an appreciation in the third and sixth quarter. Due to larger error bounds the impact of the repo rate on the exchange rate could be less effective within the first two years. The impulse responses suggest that monetary policy plays an effective role in stabilising the economy in response to a credit shock, notwithstanding large standard error bounds. Hence, the monetary authority reacts by increasing the repo rate as a result of inflation. The impact of credit on output is positive but is offset to some extent by the rising repo rate. In response to the rand appreciation, the monetary authority reduces the repo rate significantly during the first year with the maximum impact in the second year and then returns to baseline thereafter. Therefore the monetary authority reduces the repo rate, probably to stabilise falling inflation. The result shows that inflation falls as a result of the rand appreciation. A shock to the exchange rate causes a rise in output, though small in magnitude, which is persistent but reaches baseline at the end of the period. This result could reflect the effects of the resultant fall in the repo rate and a persistent rise in credit over the whole period, which tends to increase output. The exchange rate shows an obvious and stronger immediate impact on inflation compared to credit impact on inflation. However, the credit shock has an obvious and stronger impact on output compared to an exchange rate impact on output. However, the large standard error bounds may imply that credit and exchange rate channels are not as effective in the short run. It is important to note that the results are based on the SVAR model estimated with percentage growth rate of the variables. The variance decomposition result is in line with the impulse responses and shows that the exchange rate and credit channels could be important transmission channels in South Africa over the chosen sample period. The exchange rate and credit shocks show a stronger effect on inflation than on output, looking at both the impulse responses and variance decomposition results. The reaction of the repo interest rate to the credit and exchange rate shocks comes out as expected. The repo rate increases as a result of an increase in the credit and falls as a result of the currency appreciation.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
- Authors: Sebitso, Nathaniel Maemu
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Monetary policy -- South Africa , Foreign exchange market -- South Africa , Financial crises -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions , South Africa -- Economic policy , Banks and banking -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1129 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1020851
- Description: This thesis focuses on monetary policy transmission and particularly seeks to examine the impact of credit and exchange rate channels of monetary policy transmission in the South African economy. South Africa's monetary policy has gone through several changes over the past thirty years. In this respect, there is a need for robust empirical evidence on the effects of these channels on inflation and output. The thesis employs a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model to identify monetary transmission in South Africa for the period 1994:q4 - 2008:q2. The form of the SVAR used in this thesis is based on the fact that South Africa is a small open economy, which means that external shocks are an important driver of domestic activity. The impulse responses and variance decomposition results show that the repo rate, credit and exchange rate play a role in terms of their impact on inflation and output. The dynamic responses to the identified monetary policy shock are consistent with standard theory and highlight the importance of the interest rate channel. A shock to the interest rate, increasing it by one standard deviation, results in a persistent fall in credit. The response of output is immediate as it falls and bottoms out within the second year. Inflation shows a lagged response, it is positive within the first year as the exchange rate depreciates but in subsequent quarters inflation responds negatively as expected. Inflation falls and reaches a minimum by approximately eight quarters then moves towards baseline. The exchange rate shows delayed appreciation. The shock to the repo interest rate leads to an immediate depreciation of the exchange rate in the first two quarters as output declines, followed by an appreciation in the third and sixth quarter. Due to larger error bounds the impact of the repo rate on the exchange rate could be less effective within the first two years. The impulse responses suggest that monetary policy plays an effective role in stabilising the economy in response to a credit shock, notwithstanding large standard error bounds. Hence, the monetary authority reacts by increasing the repo rate as a result of inflation. The impact of credit on output is positive but is offset to some extent by the rising repo rate. In response to the rand appreciation, the monetary authority reduces the repo rate significantly during the first year with the maximum impact in the second year and then returns to baseline thereafter. Therefore the monetary authority reduces the repo rate, probably to stabilise falling inflation. The result shows that inflation falls as a result of the rand appreciation. A shock to the exchange rate causes a rise in output, though small in magnitude, which is persistent but reaches baseline at the end of the period. This result could reflect the effects of the resultant fall in the repo rate and a persistent rise in credit over the whole period, which tends to increase output. The exchange rate shows an obvious and stronger immediate impact on inflation compared to credit impact on inflation. However, the credit shock has an obvious and stronger impact on output compared to an exchange rate impact on output. However, the large standard error bounds may imply that credit and exchange rate channels are not as effective in the short run. It is important to note that the results are based on the SVAR model estimated with percentage growth rate of the variables. The variance decomposition result is in line with the impulse responses and shows that the exchange rate and credit channels could be important transmission channels in South Africa over the chosen sample period. The exchange rate and credit shocks show a stronger effect on inflation than on output, looking at both the impulse responses and variance decomposition results. The reaction of the repo interest rate to the credit and exchange rate shocks comes out as expected. The repo rate increases as a result of an increase in the credit and falls as a result of the currency appreciation.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
The relationship between stock market development and economic growth in Africa
- Authors: Mkhize, Siyanda
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Stock exchanges -- Africa , Africa -- Economic conditions -- 21st century , Economic development -- Africa -- 21st century , Capital market -- Africa , Finance -- Africa -- 21st century , Developing countries -- Economic conditions -- 21st century
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/115149 , vital:34082
- Description: Over the years there has been a substantial increase in the number of African stock markets. This has generated much interest from local and foreign investors, as these stock markets have had high returns. These conditions have created an interesting scenario for investigating the relationship between stock market development and economic growth. However, this opportunity has largely been neglected as the research on African stock market development is limited in developing economies relative to research conducted in developed countries. Furthermore, the research that has been conducted on the relationship between stock market development and economic growth in Africa, has generated inconclusive and conflicting results, in addition to this, the institutional quality of African countries is disregarded in most studies when the stock market development and economic growth nexus is analysed. Therefore, this study aims to explore the relationship between stock market development and economic growth, incorporating institution variables to account for the institutional quality of African countries to provide clarity in this context. To achieve this, two sets of research hypotheses were created the first set aims to determine whether stock development has an influence on economic growth. The second set is to determine if there is any causal relationship between stock market development and economic growth. The study utilizes System Generalized Method of Moments models to examine the effect of stock market development on economic growth, in 18 African countries for the period 2003- 2016. The results indicate that market capitalization has a positive influence on economic growth whilst, contrastingly liquidity in the form of value traded has a negative effect on economic growth. The study further analyses the causal relationship between stock market development and economic growth, by employing the recently developed PVAR-Granger causality test. However, before this is done several Pedroni cointegration tests were first conducted to establish whether a long-term relationship exists between stock market development and economic growth, which revealed that no strong evidence of cointegration exists necessitating the use of a PVAR-Granger causality test. The PVAR-Granger causality test reveals that stock market development granger causes economic growth, irrespective of the stock market development measure used and there is no feedback effect from economic growth. The unilateral causality established in this study flowing from stock market development to economic growth supports the supply-leading hypothesis. The overall results of this study demonstrate that there is ambiguity on the impact of stock market development on economic growth, as the measures of stock market development have contrasting impacts on economic growth. The size component of stock market development in the form of market capitalization has positive influence whilst, liquidity in form of total value traded has a negative effect. However, the causal relationship is clearly shown to be unilaterally flowing from stock market development to economic growth.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
- Authors: Mkhize, Siyanda
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Stock exchanges -- Africa , Africa -- Economic conditions -- 21st century , Economic development -- Africa -- 21st century , Capital market -- Africa , Finance -- Africa -- 21st century , Developing countries -- Economic conditions -- 21st century
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/115149 , vital:34082
- Description: Over the years there has been a substantial increase in the number of African stock markets. This has generated much interest from local and foreign investors, as these stock markets have had high returns. These conditions have created an interesting scenario for investigating the relationship between stock market development and economic growth. However, this opportunity has largely been neglected as the research on African stock market development is limited in developing economies relative to research conducted in developed countries. Furthermore, the research that has been conducted on the relationship between stock market development and economic growth in Africa, has generated inconclusive and conflicting results, in addition to this, the institutional quality of African countries is disregarded in most studies when the stock market development and economic growth nexus is analysed. Therefore, this study aims to explore the relationship between stock market development and economic growth, incorporating institution variables to account for the institutional quality of African countries to provide clarity in this context. To achieve this, two sets of research hypotheses were created the first set aims to determine whether stock development has an influence on economic growth. The second set is to determine if there is any causal relationship between stock market development and economic growth. The study utilizes System Generalized Method of Moments models to examine the effect of stock market development on economic growth, in 18 African countries for the period 2003- 2016. The results indicate that market capitalization has a positive influence on economic growth whilst, contrastingly liquidity in the form of value traded has a negative effect on economic growth. The study further analyses the causal relationship between stock market development and economic growth, by employing the recently developed PVAR-Granger causality test. However, before this is done several Pedroni cointegration tests were first conducted to establish whether a long-term relationship exists between stock market development and economic growth, which revealed that no strong evidence of cointegration exists necessitating the use of a PVAR-Granger causality test. The PVAR-Granger causality test reveals that stock market development granger causes economic growth, irrespective of the stock market development measure used and there is no feedback effect from economic growth. The unilateral causality established in this study flowing from stock market development to economic growth supports the supply-leading hypothesis. The overall results of this study demonstrate that there is ambiguity on the impact of stock market development on economic growth, as the measures of stock market development have contrasting impacts on economic growth. The size component of stock market development in the form of market capitalization has positive influence whilst, liquidity in form of total value traded has a negative effect. However, the causal relationship is clearly shown to be unilaterally flowing from stock market development to economic growth.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
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