A behaviour of South Africa’s economy towards inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI) from BRICs economies
- Authors: Dingela, Siyasanga
- Date: 2021-04
- Subjects: Investments, Foreign -- South Africa , Investments, Foreign -- Developing countries , South Africa -- Economic conditions , BRIC countries -- Foreign economic relations
- Language: English
- Type: Doctoral theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/51141 , vital:43212
- Description: This study investigated a behaviour of South Africa’s economy towards inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI) from Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRICs) economies, during the period 1997 to 2016. The BRICs bloc was coined in 2001 by then chairperson of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, Jim O’Neil. According to Goldman Sach (2001), the BRICs group was collectively expected to overtake the major economic powers over the span of a few decades. Their growth is expected to shape a new economic order and replace the currently dominant advanced economies. South Africa joined the BRICs bloc in 2010 as the jeweler of the world and as a gateway to Africa. It joined the BRICs group at the time when economic growth was at a sluggish rate, and the savings and investment were at the lowest rate. The country had a high unemployment rate, high levels of poverty and income inequality. On the other hand, the BRICs economies had limited intra-BRICs flows amongst themselves. It is against this background that this study investigated the long run impact of BRICs FDI inflows on South Africa’s economic growth, and the causality relationship between South Africa’s economic growth and BRICs FDI inflows. This study contributes to the body of knowledge of economics in South Africa and the literature on foreign direct investment and economic growth in South Africa. The study employed two cointegration methods to investigate the behaviour of South Africa’s economy towards inflows of foreign direct investment from BRICs economies. These are fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) and dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS). For granger causality, the study employed Stacked and Dumistrescu Hurlin tests. All the models used time series annual data from 1997 to 2016. The Unit root test results confirmed that the variables were stationary at first difference using panel Im, Pesaran, Shin (IPS) and Levin, Lin, Chu (LLC). The research employs four regressions, first, Economic growth and foreign direct investment (i.e. private sector, banking sector and both sectors), human capital, physical capital, household consumption, government expenditure, exports, and arable land; Second, Employment and foreign direct investment, human capital, physical capital, household consumption, government expenditure, exports, and arable land; third, Economic complexity and foreign direct investment, human capital, physical capital, household consumption, government expenditure, exports, and arable land; finally, Unemployment and foreign direct investment, human capital, physical capital, household consumption, government expenditure, exports, and arable land. The cointegration results for private FDI and economic growth, employment, economic complexity, and unemployment. The results show only economic complexity has significant effect on foreign direct investment and other variables show insignificant results. However, this effect is smaller compared to other growth determinants which are included in the regressions. The cointegration results for bank FDI. These results show more similarities with private FDI results and few differences. However, this effect is smaller compared to other growth determinants included in the regressions. These growth determinants, however, show a positive effect of human capital and household consumption on economic growth which is expected. Other interesting results are exports being positively related with economic growth and unemployment but negative with employment and insignificant with economic complexity. Another one is government spending negatively influence economic growth, employment and positively influence unemployment. But insignificant for economic complexity. Total FDI results and other variables. These results are also similar to private and bank FDI results discussed above. Economic complexity shows significant effect with foreign direct investment, yet other variables are insignificant. . Further results show human capital positively related with economic growth, which is expected. However, physical capital and household consumption negatively affects growth. Another one exports show positive influence on economic growth but negatively related with employment. Yet, insignificant with economic complexity and unemployment. Other results government spending shows negative influence with employment but insignificant with economic growth, economic complexity and unemployment. The results for nonlinearity between the variables under review. The results that employment and economic complexity are nonlinear with foreign direct investment and no nonlinearity between unemployment, economic growth and foreign direct investment. For employment, low levels of foreign direct investment (LFDI_private) adversely affects employment but at higher levels (FDI_private_SQ) is insignificant. For economic complexity, low levels of foreign direct investment are insignificant for economic complexity but at higher levels there is a positive effect of squared foreign direct investment on economic complexity. Further results show that economic growth and employment are nonlinear with human capital, physical capital, household consumption and exports. Physical capital and household consumption adversely affect economic growth, yet positively affects employment. Human capital positively affects economic growth, employment, and unemployment. Exports positively affect economic growth, but negatively affect employment. Further results show nonlinearity between employment and government expenditure. Government expenditure adversely affects employment. Also, economic growth and unemployment show nonlinearity with arable land. Arable land adversely affects economic growth but positively affects unemployment. Nonlinear results for economic growth and economic complexity with foreign direct investment but no nonlinearity in other remaining variables. For economic growth, low levels of foreign direct investment there is a positive effect of foreign direct investment on economic growth, however, at higher levels foreign direct investment are insignificant. For economic complexity, low levels of foreign direct investment are insignificant, yet, higher levels of foreign direct investment there is a positive influence of foreign direct investment on economic complexity. Further results show economic growth and employment that are nonlinear with human capital, physical capital, and household consumption. Human capital positively affects both economic growth and employment. Physical capital and household consumption are adversely affecting economic growth, yet positively affects employment. Further results show nonlinearity between economic growth and government expenditure. Government expenditure adversely affects employment. More results, employment, and unemployment show nonlinearity results with exports. Exports adversely affect employment but positively affects unemployment. Results show economic growth and unemployment that are nonlinear with arable land. Arable land adversely affects economic growth, but positively affect unemployment. Nonlinear results for economic complexity only and other variables show no nonlinearity in the regressions. For economic complexity, low levels of foreign direct investment are insignificant, but at higher levels of foreign direct investment there is positive effect of foreign direct investment on economic complexity. More results show economic growth and employment that are nonlinear with human capital, physical capital, household consumption and exports. Human capital and exports positively affect economic growth, employment, and unemployment. Whereas, physical capital and household consumption adversely affects economic growth and unemployment, yet positively affects employment. Further results show nonlinearity between employment and government expenditure. Government spending adversely affects employment. Further results show nonlinearity between economic growth and unemployment with arable land. Arable land positively affects unemployment, yet adversely affects economic growth. The following section discusses granger causality results. This study also employed granger causality tests. The causality results between economic growth, employment, economic complexity, unemployment, and private foreign direct investment. The causality results show that there is granger causality between economic growth and economic complexity with private foreign direct investment. Whereas, between bank foreign direct investment and other variables there is no granger causality. However, between total foreign direct investment and economic growth and employment there is granger causality. There are a number of policy recommendations that can be drawn from the study. The study results in overall revealed that BRICs (private and bank) FDI inflows had a positive impact on South Africa’s economic growth between 1997 and 2016. The study results suggest that the policy makers should focus the attention on lobbying foreign direct investment from BRICs economies, since this study shows positive impact and relationship between South Africa’s economic growth and BRICs FDI inflows. The BRICs economies should focus on enhancing investment partnership, preventing protectionism, and promoting intra-BRICS flows. In addition, South Africa should eliminate barriers affecting business with BRICs countries. Policy makers should promote the building of new companies (for example Greenfield Investment) so that the economy of South Africa could grow and create employment. , Thesis (MA) -- Faculty of Business and Economic Sciences, Economics, 2021
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2021-04
- Authors: Dingela, Siyasanga
- Date: 2021-04
- Subjects: Investments, Foreign -- South Africa , Investments, Foreign -- Developing countries , South Africa -- Economic conditions , BRIC countries -- Foreign economic relations
- Language: English
- Type: Doctoral theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/51141 , vital:43212
- Description: This study investigated a behaviour of South Africa’s economy towards inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI) from Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRICs) economies, during the period 1997 to 2016. The BRICs bloc was coined in 2001 by then chairperson of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, Jim O’Neil. According to Goldman Sach (2001), the BRICs group was collectively expected to overtake the major economic powers over the span of a few decades. Their growth is expected to shape a new economic order and replace the currently dominant advanced economies. South Africa joined the BRICs bloc in 2010 as the jeweler of the world and as a gateway to Africa. It joined the BRICs group at the time when economic growth was at a sluggish rate, and the savings and investment were at the lowest rate. The country had a high unemployment rate, high levels of poverty and income inequality. On the other hand, the BRICs economies had limited intra-BRICs flows amongst themselves. It is against this background that this study investigated the long run impact of BRICs FDI inflows on South Africa’s economic growth, and the causality relationship between South Africa’s economic growth and BRICs FDI inflows. This study contributes to the body of knowledge of economics in South Africa and the literature on foreign direct investment and economic growth in South Africa. The study employed two cointegration methods to investigate the behaviour of South Africa’s economy towards inflows of foreign direct investment from BRICs economies. These are fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) and dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS). For granger causality, the study employed Stacked and Dumistrescu Hurlin tests. All the models used time series annual data from 1997 to 2016. The Unit root test results confirmed that the variables were stationary at first difference using panel Im, Pesaran, Shin (IPS) and Levin, Lin, Chu (LLC). The research employs four regressions, first, Economic growth and foreign direct investment (i.e. private sector, banking sector and both sectors), human capital, physical capital, household consumption, government expenditure, exports, and arable land; Second, Employment and foreign direct investment, human capital, physical capital, household consumption, government expenditure, exports, and arable land; third, Economic complexity and foreign direct investment, human capital, physical capital, household consumption, government expenditure, exports, and arable land; finally, Unemployment and foreign direct investment, human capital, physical capital, household consumption, government expenditure, exports, and arable land. The cointegration results for private FDI and economic growth, employment, economic complexity, and unemployment. The results show only economic complexity has significant effect on foreign direct investment and other variables show insignificant results. However, this effect is smaller compared to other growth determinants which are included in the regressions. The cointegration results for bank FDI. These results show more similarities with private FDI results and few differences. However, this effect is smaller compared to other growth determinants included in the regressions. These growth determinants, however, show a positive effect of human capital and household consumption on economic growth which is expected. Other interesting results are exports being positively related with economic growth and unemployment but negative with employment and insignificant with economic complexity. Another one is government spending negatively influence economic growth, employment and positively influence unemployment. But insignificant for economic complexity. Total FDI results and other variables. These results are also similar to private and bank FDI results discussed above. Economic complexity shows significant effect with foreign direct investment, yet other variables are insignificant. . Further results show human capital positively related with economic growth, which is expected. However, physical capital and household consumption negatively affects growth. Another one exports show positive influence on economic growth but negatively related with employment. Yet, insignificant with economic complexity and unemployment. Other results government spending shows negative influence with employment but insignificant with economic growth, economic complexity and unemployment. The results for nonlinearity between the variables under review. The results that employment and economic complexity are nonlinear with foreign direct investment and no nonlinearity between unemployment, economic growth and foreign direct investment. For employment, low levels of foreign direct investment (LFDI_private) adversely affects employment but at higher levels (FDI_private_SQ) is insignificant. For economic complexity, low levels of foreign direct investment are insignificant for economic complexity but at higher levels there is a positive effect of squared foreign direct investment on economic complexity. Further results show that economic growth and employment are nonlinear with human capital, physical capital, household consumption and exports. Physical capital and household consumption adversely affect economic growth, yet positively affects employment. Human capital positively affects economic growth, employment, and unemployment. Exports positively affect economic growth, but negatively affect employment. Further results show nonlinearity between employment and government expenditure. Government expenditure adversely affects employment. Also, economic growth and unemployment show nonlinearity with arable land. Arable land adversely affects economic growth but positively affects unemployment. Nonlinear results for economic growth and economic complexity with foreign direct investment but no nonlinearity in other remaining variables. For economic growth, low levels of foreign direct investment there is a positive effect of foreign direct investment on economic growth, however, at higher levels foreign direct investment are insignificant. For economic complexity, low levels of foreign direct investment are insignificant, yet, higher levels of foreign direct investment there is a positive influence of foreign direct investment on economic complexity. Further results show economic growth and employment that are nonlinear with human capital, physical capital, and household consumption. Human capital positively affects both economic growth and employment. Physical capital and household consumption are adversely affecting economic growth, yet positively affects employment. Further results show nonlinearity between economic growth and government expenditure. Government expenditure adversely affects employment. More results, employment, and unemployment show nonlinearity results with exports. Exports adversely affect employment but positively affects unemployment. Results show economic growth and unemployment that are nonlinear with arable land. Arable land adversely affects economic growth, but positively affect unemployment. Nonlinear results for economic complexity only and other variables show no nonlinearity in the regressions. For economic complexity, low levels of foreign direct investment are insignificant, but at higher levels of foreign direct investment there is positive effect of foreign direct investment on economic complexity. More results show economic growth and employment that are nonlinear with human capital, physical capital, household consumption and exports. Human capital and exports positively affect economic growth, employment, and unemployment. Whereas, physical capital and household consumption adversely affects economic growth and unemployment, yet positively affects employment. Further results show nonlinearity between employment and government expenditure. Government spending adversely affects employment. Further results show nonlinearity between economic growth and unemployment with arable land. Arable land positively affects unemployment, yet adversely affects economic growth. The following section discusses granger causality results. This study also employed granger causality tests. The causality results between economic growth, employment, economic complexity, unemployment, and private foreign direct investment. The causality results show that there is granger causality between economic growth and economic complexity with private foreign direct investment. Whereas, between bank foreign direct investment and other variables there is no granger causality. However, between total foreign direct investment and economic growth and employment there is granger causality. There are a number of policy recommendations that can be drawn from the study. The study results in overall revealed that BRICs (private and bank) FDI inflows had a positive impact on South Africa’s economic growth between 1997 and 2016. The study results suggest that the policy makers should focus the attention on lobbying foreign direct investment from BRICs economies, since this study shows positive impact and relationship between South Africa’s economic growth and BRICs FDI inflows. The BRICs economies should focus on enhancing investment partnership, preventing protectionism, and promoting intra-BRICS flows. In addition, South Africa should eliminate barriers affecting business with BRICs countries. Policy makers should promote the building of new companies (for example Greenfield Investment) so that the economy of South Africa could grow and create employment. , Thesis (MA) -- Faculty of Business and Economic Sciences, Economics, 2021
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2021-04
Agricultural entrepreneurship development as strategy for economic empowerment: The case of small-scale farmers in Eastern Cape Province of South Africa
- Authors: Akinwale, Olusola Mokayode
- Date: 2020-11
- Subjects: Sustainable development -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Doctoral theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10353/20241 , vital:45637
- Description: This study emanated from the struggle for economic empowerment among small-scale farmers in South African. The study advocates for the establishment of a viable environment where agricultural entrepreneurship can thrive. While the South African Nation Development Plan (NDP) proposed to create one million jobs through agricultural sector by 2030, the majority of small-scale farmers in South Africa are struggling to grow beyond the level of subsistence farming, and the youths appear not to be interested in the farming. It is therefore become necessary to conduct this current study that is exploratory in nature; it explored several factors and barriers to agricultural entrepreneurship development, as well as factors that can contribute to the development of prosperous and sustainable agricultural entrepreneurship among small-scale farmers in South African. The study was conducted in two district municipalities of Eastern Cape Province of South Africa – OR Tambo and Chris Hani. Both quantitative and qualitative research methods were used to make findings. Findings from the study shows that economic empowerment can be achieved through agricultural entrepreneurship development by giving adequate attention to specific factors like individuals’ attitude, production skills, access to market and marketing skills, management skills. Empirically, basic components like personal interests, adequate training and background, efficient extension service, famers’ network and communication, specific goal-oriented, understanding market, farmers’ collaboration, and access to sufficient funding are few of the factors that will make the small-scale farmers grow to the level of commercial farming. The study concluded that prerequisite to developing a sustainable agricultural entrepreneurship climate among small-scale farmers in South African is the combination of basic components aforementioned. Suggestions were made for strong collaboration between government and private sectors to provide development assistance for small-scale farmers as they struggles to develop their small-scale farming to sustainable entrepreneurship level. , Thesis (DPhil) -- Faculty of Management and Commerce, 2020
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020-11
- Authors: Akinwale, Olusola Mokayode
- Date: 2020-11
- Subjects: Sustainable development -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Doctoral theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10353/20241 , vital:45637
- Description: This study emanated from the struggle for economic empowerment among small-scale farmers in South African. The study advocates for the establishment of a viable environment where agricultural entrepreneurship can thrive. While the South African Nation Development Plan (NDP) proposed to create one million jobs through agricultural sector by 2030, the majority of small-scale farmers in South Africa are struggling to grow beyond the level of subsistence farming, and the youths appear not to be interested in the farming. It is therefore become necessary to conduct this current study that is exploratory in nature; it explored several factors and barriers to agricultural entrepreneurship development, as well as factors that can contribute to the development of prosperous and sustainable agricultural entrepreneurship among small-scale farmers in South African. The study was conducted in two district municipalities of Eastern Cape Province of South Africa – OR Tambo and Chris Hani. Both quantitative and qualitative research methods were used to make findings. Findings from the study shows that economic empowerment can be achieved through agricultural entrepreneurship development by giving adequate attention to specific factors like individuals’ attitude, production skills, access to market and marketing skills, management skills. Empirically, basic components like personal interests, adequate training and background, efficient extension service, famers’ network and communication, specific goal-oriented, understanding market, farmers’ collaboration, and access to sufficient funding are few of the factors that will make the small-scale farmers grow to the level of commercial farming. The study concluded that prerequisite to developing a sustainable agricultural entrepreneurship climate among small-scale farmers in South African is the combination of basic components aforementioned. Suggestions were made for strong collaboration between government and private sectors to provide development assistance for small-scale farmers as they struggles to develop their small-scale farming to sustainable entrepreneurship level. , Thesis (DPhil) -- Faculty of Management and Commerce, 2020
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020-11
An appraisal of the East London Industrial Development Zone’s role in local innovation, entrepreneurship, and industrial development
- Authors: Masiwa, George Bonginkosi
- Date: 2021-02
- Subjects: Industrialization , Economic development , South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Doctoral theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10353/21213 , vital:47406
- Description: This study focuses on the East London Industrial Development Zone (ELIDZ) in South Africa. The ELIDZ strategy came as a response to the need for a robust catalyst for sustainable regional economic development, industrial diversification and to create meaningful employment opportunities in the country. It was supposed to provide customised solutions for various industries including automotive, agro-processing and aqua-culture. However, an Industrial Development Zone should promote innovati on and entrepreneurship to stimulate economic growth and global competitiveness. Economic stagnation, joblessness and inequality continue to be a reality for the previously marginalised groups after 16 years of the ELIDZ despite significant investments in the automotive sector, the growth of companies that supply Mercedes Benz with parts and the establishment and growth of innovative start-up companies at the ELIDZ Science and Technology Park (STP). Massive joblessness, poverty and economic stagnation had followed the collapse of the old industrial parks. The ELIDZ strategy of industrial development came as a response to the demise of the old parks and was meant to become the main vehicle for job creation, local innovation and global competitiveness. This study therefore investigated the extent to which innovation and entrepreneurship have fared in driving sustainable local economic development and how they have impacted jobs at the ELIDZ and within the East London community. The study was qualitative in nature and employed the non-probability sampling technique. In-depth semi-structured interviews were conducted with key informants that included Industrialists, Business Executives that were tenants at the ELIDZ, the Buffalo City Municipal Metro and community members with knowledge of and association with the ELIDZ. This was augmented by desktop and observational data. It was found that innovation and entrepreneurship was still a fairly new phenomenon at the ELIDZ and their flagships had the vision but were not yet driving sustainable local economic development to a large extent. The model lacks adequate diversification as most of the innovation projects are in the renewable energy and information communication spaces. Very few have made it to mass production with downstream industry employment creation for plumbers, artisans and marketers involved in the supply, distribution, instalment and maintenance of the Hotspot and Thin-film solar panels. New industrialists like YEKANI Technologies and Manufacturing and KGI Holdings, already employ some people and have the vision to employ thousands more of young people. The main innovation and entrepreneurship projects of the ELIDZ have had some impact at the grassroots level even though it is still limited. Too few jobs have been created compared to the old industrial parks model. The ELIDZ is therefore playing an important (albeit limited) role as a local employment creator, even though it has not revitalised the Eastern Cape manufacturing landscape. Due to its highly technology driven and specialised skills nature, the ELIDZ model is benefiting the few and therefore has not yet been an effective instrument to resolve the disturbing levels of inequality, poverty and unemployment, that underlie racial, class and gender dynamics in East London. The study concluded that innovation and entrepreneurship projects at the ELIDZ were contributing towards driving sustainable local economic development to some degree. However, due to its narrow industrial focus and highly technical and specialised skills driven business model, it excludes most historically disadvantaged communities and the local academic institutions need to do more to produce the skills relevant to support local innovation and local industrial development in a time when economies rely more on intellectual capabilities rather than natural resources. , Thesis (PhD) -- Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities, 2021
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2021-02
- Authors: Masiwa, George Bonginkosi
- Date: 2021-02
- Subjects: Industrialization , Economic development , South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Doctoral theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10353/21213 , vital:47406
- Description: This study focuses on the East London Industrial Development Zone (ELIDZ) in South Africa. The ELIDZ strategy came as a response to the need for a robust catalyst for sustainable regional economic development, industrial diversification and to create meaningful employment opportunities in the country. It was supposed to provide customised solutions for various industries including automotive, agro-processing and aqua-culture. However, an Industrial Development Zone should promote innovati on and entrepreneurship to stimulate economic growth and global competitiveness. Economic stagnation, joblessness and inequality continue to be a reality for the previously marginalised groups after 16 years of the ELIDZ despite significant investments in the automotive sector, the growth of companies that supply Mercedes Benz with parts and the establishment and growth of innovative start-up companies at the ELIDZ Science and Technology Park (STP). Massive joblessness, poverty and economic stagnation had followed the collapse of the old industrial parks. The ELIDZ strategy of industrial development came as a response to the demise of the old parks and was meant to become the main vehicle for job creation, local innovation and global competitiveness. This study therefore investigated the extent to which innovation and entrepreneurship have fared in driving sustainable local economic development and how they have impacted jobs at the ELIDZ and within the East London community. The study was qualitative in nature and employed the non-probability sampling technique. In-depth semi-structured interviews were conducted with key informants that included Industrialists, Business Executives that were tenants at the ELIDZ, the Buffalo City Municipal Metro and community members with knowledge of and association with the ELIDZ. This was augmented by desktop and observational data. It was found that innovation and entrepreneurship was still a fairly new phenomenon at the ELIDZ and their flagships had the vision but were not yet driving sustainable local economic development to a large extent. The model lacks adequate diversification as most of the innovation projects are in the renewable energy and information communication spaces. Very few have made it to mass production with downstream industry employment creation for plumbers, artisans and marketers involved in the supply, distribution, instalment and maintenance of the Hotspot and Thin-film solar panels. New industrialists like YEKANI Technologies and Manufacturing and KGI Holdings, already employ some people and have the vision to employ thousands more of young people. The main innovation and entrepreneurship projects of the ELIDZ have had some impact at the grassroots level even though it is still limited. Too few jobs have been created compared to the old industrial parks model. The ELIDZ is therefore playing an important (albeit limited) role as a local employment creator, even though it has not revitalised the Eastern Cape manufacturing landscape. Due to its highly technology driven and specialised skills nature, the ELIDZ model is benefiting the few and therefore has not yet been an effective instrument to resolve the disturbing levels of inequality, poverty and unemployment, that underlie racial, class and gender dynamics in East London. The study concluded that innovation and entrepreneurship projects at the ELIDZ were contributing towards driving sustainable local economic development to some degree. However, due to its narrow industrial focus and highly technical and specialised skills driven business model, it excludes most historically disadvantaged communities and the local academic institutions need to do more to produce the skills relevant to support local innovation and local industrial development in a time when economies rely more on intellectual capabilities rather than natural resources. , Thesis (PhD) -- Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities, 2021
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2021-02
Testing the applicability of the Twin deficits and the Ricardian equivalence hypotheses in South Africa
- Authors: Makua, Khutso Baltimore
- Date: 2021-04
- Subjects: Budget deficits -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions , Economics
- Language: English
- Type: Master's theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/51831 , vital:43376
- Description: This study investigates the applicability of the twin deficit and Ricardian equivalence hypotheses in South Africa by exploring the relationship between budget deficits and current account deficits for the period 1990-2020 in South Africa. The reviewed theoretical and empirical literature has shown the results of this relationship to be mixed, depending on the region in review and the policy regime in some instances. The Johansen cointegration test was used because it has advantage over the Engle-Granger over the number of cointegrating relationships they both test. Compared to Engle-Granger, Johansen cointegration allows for more than one cointegrating relationship. The test show evidence that there is cointegration between current account deficits, budget deficits and other explanatory variables. The tests indicated the presence of cointegration which led to the estimation of VECM. Co-integration and vector error correction modelling techniques were applied to South African data between 1990 to 2020 period. The study at hand indicated that government budget deficits have a long run negative effect on current account deficits, but Granger causality failed to prove the direction of causality between the main variables, current account deficits and current account deficits. Therefore, the study concluded that the twin deficits hypothesis is not applicable in South Africa and revealed that South Africa is a Ricardian economy as Granger causality could not establish that budget deficits cause current account deficits. , Thesis (MCom) -- Faculty of Business and Economic Sciences, Economics, 2021
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2021-04
- Authors: Makua, Khutso Baltimore
- Date: 2021-04
- Subjects: Budget deficits -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions , Economics
- Language: English
- Type: Master's theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/51831 , vital:43376
- Description: This study investigates the applicability of the twin deficit and Ricardian equivalence hypotheses in South Africa by exploring the relationship between budget deficits and current account deficits for the period 1990-2020 in South Africa. The reviewed theoretical and empirical literature has shown the results of this relationship to be mixed, depending on the region in review and the policy regime in some instances. The Johansen cointegration test was used because it has advantage over the Engle-Granger over the number of cointegrating relationships they both test. Compared to Engle-Granger, Johansen cointegration allows for more than one cointegrating relationship. The test show evidence that there is cointegration between current account deficits, budget deficits and other explanatory variables. The tests indicated the presence of cointegration which led to the estimation of VECM. Co-integration and vector error correction modelling techniques were applied to South African data between 1990 to 2020 period. The study at hand indicated that government budget deficits have a long run negative effect on current account deficits, but Granger causality failed to prove the direction of causality between the main variables, current account deficits and current account deficits. Therefore, the study concluded that the twin deficits hypothesis is not applicable in South Africa and revealed that South Africa is a Ricardian economy as Granger causality could not establish that budget deficits cause current account deficits. , Thesis (MCom) -- Faculty of Business and Economic Sciences, Economics, 2021
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2021-04
The effects of external shocks on economic growth in South Africa
- Authors: Mzayidume, Lonwabo
- Date: 2022-04
- Subjects: Economic development , South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Master's theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/58024 , vital:58499
- Description: External shocks are defined as unexpected changes in an economic variable which can influence economies either positively or negatively. Examples of such shocks can include oil price and terms of trade shocks. Globalisation has increased the susceptibility of economies worldwide to economic shocks emanating from developed countries, due to the existing trade and financial links between various countries around the world. The objectives of this study are to investigate the effects of external shocks on economic growth in South Africa and to develop policies which could be used to prevent or soften the negative effects of external shocks in South Africa. Since the beginning of democracy in 1994, the South African economy has been opened to the world market. However, there have not been substantial gains in terms of economic growth. A possible explanation for this is that the dynamics of large economies influence the average demand, average supply, economic activities, and price changes in small open economies. South Africa’s dependence on foreign trade and attracting foreign savings to drive domestic investment increases the country’s vulnerability to the effects of external shocks. In this study, the South African economy is proxied by one key measure of economic performance, economic growth rate. The purpose of the study is to advance the understanding of the effects of external shocks on economic growth in South Africa. The study uses the structural VAR model. As South Africa is a relatively small open economy, the structural VAR model is theoretically consistent with countries of similar ilk. This study concludes that South Africa’s economic growth is significantly affected by commodity price index, U.S. GDP, and oil rents. In addition, this study concludes that South Africa is contemporaneously and positively affected by oil rents shocks and terms of trade shocks. Furthermore, it shows that economic growth in South Africa is contemporaneously and negatively affected by capital inflow shocks, nominal vi exchange rate shocks, and CPI shocks. Further SVAR estimates support the finding that capital inflows adversely affect South African economic growth. A possible reason for this outcome is that the number of domestic producers is reduced as a result of domestic producers being negatively affected by the capital inflow shocks. To combat the adverse effects of capital inflows, the study recommends that South Africa enforces more measures to protect domestic producers. The implementation of protectionist policies is one way in which this could be accomplished. These policies would promote domestic producers and ensure the production of domestic goods and services is increased. , Thesis (MA) -- Faculty of Business and Economic science, 2022
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2022-04
- Authors: Mzayidume, Lonwabo
- Date: 2022-04
- Subjects: Economic development , South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Master's theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/58024 , vital:58499
- Description: External shocks are defined as unexpected changes in an economic variable which can influence economies either positively or negatively. Examples of such shocks can include oil price and terms of trade shocks. Globalisation has increased the susceptibility of economies worldwide to economic shocks emanating from developed countries, due to the existing trade and financial links between various countries around the world. The objectives of this study are to investigate the effects of external shocks on economic growth in South Africa and to develop policies which could be used to prevent or soften the negative effects of external shocks in South Africa. Since the beginning of democracy in 1994, the South African economy has been opened to the world market. However, there have not been substantial gains in terms of economic growth. A possible explanation for this is that the dynamics of large economies influence the average demand, average supply, economic activities, and price changes in small open economies. South Africa’s dependence on foreign trade and attracting foreign savings to drive domestic investment increases the country’s vulnerability to the effects of external shocks. In this study, the South African economy is proxied by one key measure of economic performance, economic growth rate. The purpose of the study is to advance the understanding of the effects of external shocks on economic growth in South Africa. The study uses the structural VAR model. As South Africa is a relatively small open economy, the structural VAR model is theoretically consistent with countries of similar ilk. This study concludes that South Africa’s economic growth is significantly affected by commodity price index, U.S. GDP, and oil rents. In addition, this study concludes that South Africa is contemporaneously and positively affected by oil rents shocks and terms of trade shocks. Furthermore, it shows that economic growth in South Africa is contemporaneously and negatively affected by capital inflow shocks, nominal vi exchange rate shocks, and CPI shocks. Further SVAR estimates support the finding that capital inflows adversely affect South African economic growth. A possible reason for this outcome is that the number of domestic producers is reduced as a result of domestic producers being negatively affected by the capital inflow shocks. To combat the adverse effects of capital inflows, the study recommends that South Africa enforces more measures to protect domestic producers. The implementation of protectionist policies is one way in which this could be accomplished. These policies would promote domestic producers and ensure the production of domestic goods and services is increased. , Thesis (MA) -- Faculty of Business and Economic science, 2022
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2022-04
Understanding the South African international investment position and the valuation effects: subtitle if needed. If no subtitle follow instructions in manual
- Authors: Hlati, Sisamnkelo
- Date: 2021-04
- Subjects: Investments, Foreign -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions , Economics
- Language: English
- Type: Master's theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/51534 , vital:43298
- Description: This study examines the relationship between the South African Net International Investment Positions and the valuation effects over a period of 47 years from 1970 to 2017. To investigate the long run relationship between NIIP and the determinants thereof, this current study made use of the bounds test technique and the results indicate that a long run relationship exist. In which case, the autoregressive distributed lag model to empirically investigate the impact of the current account balance, capital account balance and the valuation effects on the South African NIIP was conducted and this current study finds out that there is a long run positive relationship between the current account balance and the South African NIIP. However, the study noted that the impact of the current account balance is volatile and this could be due to the net investment income payments (in a form of interest and dividend) made to foreign investors, which constitute a proportionately large share of the South African current account deficit. The capital account balance exhibits a positive long run impact on the South African NIIP in line with theory. The valuation effects on the other hand indicate a relatively stable impact on the South African NIIP, while in the long run have a positive impact on NIIP. The positive impact of the valuation effects could be due to gains being relatively larger than losses in the long run. , Thesis (MCom) -- Faculty of Business and Economic Sciences, Economics, 2021
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2021-04
- Authors: Hlati, Sisamnkelo
- Date: 2021-04
- Subjects: Investments, Foreign -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions , Economics
- Language: English
- Type: Master's theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/51534 , vital:43298
- Description: This study examines the relationship between the South African Net International Investment Positions and the valuation effects over a period of 47 years from 1970 to 2017. To investigate the long run relationship between NIIP and the determinants thereof, this current study made use of the bounds test technique and the results indicate that a long run relationship exist. In which case, the autoregressive distributed lag model to empirically investigate the impact of the current account balance, capital account balance and the valuation effects on the South African NIIP was conducted and this current study finds out that there is a long run positive relationship between the current account balance and the South African NIIP. However, the study noted that the impact of the current account balance is volatile and this could be due to the net investment income payments (in a form of interest and dividend) made to foreign investors, which constitute a proportionately large share of the South African current account deficit. The capital account balance exhibits a positive long run impact on the South African NIIP in line with theory. The valuation effects on the other hand indicate a relatively stable impact on the South African NIIP, while in the long run have a positive impact on NIIP. The positive impact of the valuation effects could be due to gains being relatively larger than losses in the long run. , Thesis (MCom) -- Faculty of Business and Economic Sciences, Economics, 2021
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2021-04
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