- Title
- Possible futures for agricultural financing in sub-Saharan Africa towards 2055
- Creator
- Oberholster, Jacobus Hoon
- Subject
- Agriculture -- Africa, Sub-Saharan -- Finance
- Subject
- Agricultural industries -- Africa, Sub-Saharan
- Subject
- Agricultural productivity -- Africa, Sub-Saharan
- Date Issued
- 2018
- Date
- 2018
- Type
- Thesis
- Type
- Doctoral
- Type
- DPhil
- Identifier
- http://hdl.handle.net/10948/23069
- Identifier
- vital:30403
- Description
- The research developed four possible future scenarios for agricultural financing in Sub-Saharan Africa towards 2055, namely the “Rising Sun”, “Two Wolves”, “The Left Wing and the Right Wing”, and the “Two Moons” scenarios. The scenarios aim to stimulate new thoughts on an inclusive and broader development approach to agricultural financing, and to identify gaps in the knowledge about a broad range of research issues relating to the level of complexity with regard to the decision-making environment in agricultural financing. The scenarios are developed, according to a strict and predetermined process, which is guided by the Six-Pillars approach of futures studies. A conceptual futures study model for agricultural financing was also developed to guide and clarify the way in which the research on agricultural financing can be integrated into the body of existing futures study theory. The research begins with a comprehensive environmental scan, from which various trends and driving forces emerged. The causal-layered analysis (CLA) method is then used in tandem with other futures-study techniques, such as the futures triangle and emerging issues analyses, to guide the process of knowledge creation about the future of agricultural financing. A real-time Delphi study was also conducted to validate and prioritise the megatrends and driving forces that emerged from the research. Subsequently, the research presents four future scenarios that aim to provide a better understanding of the future of agricultural financing in Sub-Saharan Africa over next 40 years. The research presents agriculture as a multi-dimensional sector that fulfils different roles and functions in especially rural communities in Sub-Saharan Africa, which contribute to the perceived riskiness of agricultural financing. The scenarios illustrate how conditions for agricultural development and agricultural financing can develop and change in the region towards 2055. Furthermore, it provides useful insight into the drivers for change and how to anticipate these changes. The Delphibased scenario research also allowed the aggregation of expert knowledge, which can be used to inform decision-makers in the financial-service sector to test the robustness and appropriateness of existing business models and strategies. The scenarios can also be used as a starting point for financial-service providers and other key stakeholders to identify the future challenges and to maximise the emerging business and development opportunities, as offered by the agricultural sector in Sub-Saharan Africa. The research closes a research gap with regard to scenario development in agricultural financing in Sub-Saharan Africa within the context of the globaldevelopment agenda. The research looks at the future of agricultural financing in Sub-Saharan Africa over the next 40 years from a decision-maker’s point of view; and it provides key insights into especially the rural agricultural financial challenge in the region. A cornerstone of the research is to align policy initiatives and the business strategies of financial service providers with the vision of a broadened view of rural finance and increased financial inclusion in agriculture. The scenarios offer a starting point to develop new and more inclusive agricultural financing strategies that have the ability to speed up income convergence and economic diversification, especially with regard to rural economies in Sub-Saharan Africa that are heavily dependent on agriculture and its related industries. The research also makes a meaningful contribution by introducing a forward-looking, systems-thinking approach to agricultural financing, which is necessary to evaluate the sector’s financing needs within the context of modern food systems that are increasingly being characterised by increased levels of chain co-ordination and value creation. Subsequently, disruptive digital technologies and innovations in agricultural value-chain financing emerged as the most significant driving forces for agricultural financing in Sub-Saharan Africa towards 2055.
- Format
- xxxvi, 508 leaves
- Format
- Publisher
- Nelson Mandela University
- Publisher
- Faculty of Business and Economics Sciences
- Language
- English
- Rights
- Nelson Mandela University
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