An analysis of the turn-of-the-year effect in South African equity returns
- Authors: Potgieter, Damien
- Date: 2007
- Subjects: Johannesburg Stock Exchange , FTSE International , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Stock price indexes -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1063 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1007605 , Johannesburg Stock Exchange , FTSE International , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Stock price indexes -- South Africa
- Description: This study investigates FTSE/JSE All Share index monthly and daily equity returns for evidence of the January and TY effect. Four different measures of monthly return are analysed for the 1995-2006 period, whilst daily returns are analysed during the 1995-2005 period. In addition to this, analysis is conducted on monthly Fama-MacBeth risk premium estimates tor the FTSE/JSE All Share Index. Descriptive statistics are first analysed, followed by ANOV A or Kruskai-Wallis tests, the paired t-test and finally dummy variable regression analysis in investigating the seasonality of FTSE/JSE All Share Index returns and risk premia. Analysis on monthly returns reveals an absence of the January effect, however a positive slightly statistically significant December effect is found. Thus, investors earn abnormal returns on equity during the month of December. The results from the Fama-MacBeth risk premia estimates reveals highly statistically significant negative risk premia seasonal patterns during March, July and September. Thus, investors are in fact penalised for investing in equities during these months. In addition, the analysis reveals an absence of a December effect in risk premia, which contradicts the risk-return trade-off central to modem finance. The daily return analysis reveals a highly significant Turn-of-the-Year effect (TY), which suggests that investors earn abnormal returns on days at the turn of the year. Therefore, it is concluded that a December effect is apparent in South African equity monthly returns, whilst a March, July and September effect is apparent in South African equity risk premia contradicting the risk-return trade-off central to modem finance. In addition to this, a TY effect is present in South African equity daily returns.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
- Authors: Potgieter, Damien
- Date: 2007
- Subjects: Johannesburg Stock Exchange , FTSE International , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Stock price indexes -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1063 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1007605 , Johannesburg Stock Exchange , FTSE International , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Stock price indexes -- South Africa
- Description: This study investigates FTSE/JSE All Share index monthly and daily equity returns for evidence of the January and TY effect. Four different measures of monthly return are analysed for the 1995-2006 period, whilst daily returns are analysed during the 1995-2005 period. In addition to this, analysis is conducted on monthly Fama-MacBeth risk premium estimates tor the FTSE/JSE All Share Index. Descriptive statistics are first analysed, followed by ANOV A or Kruskai-Wallis tests, the paired t-test and finally dummy variable regression analysis in investigating the seasonality of FTSE/JSE All Share Index returns and risk premia. Analysis on monthly returns reveals an absence of the January effect, however a positive slightly statistically significant December effect is found. Thus, investors earn abnormal returns on equity during the month of December. The results from the Fama-MacBeth risk premia estimates reveals highly statistically significant negative risk premia seasonal patterns during March, July and September. Thus, investors are in fact penalised for investing in equities during these months. In addition, the analysis reveals an absence of a December effect in risk premia, which contradicts the risk-return trade-off central to modem finance. The daily return analysis reveals a highly significant Turn-of-the-Year effect (TY), which suggests that investors earn abnormal returns on days at the turn of the year. Therefore, it is concluded that a December effect is apparent in South African equity monthly returns, whilst a March, July and September effect is apparent in South African equity risk premia contradicting the risk-return trade-off central to modem finance. In addition to this, a TY effect is present in South African equity daily returns.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
Securitisation and its application to low cost housing finance in South Africa
- Authors: Zimbwa, Allan Golden
- Date: 2007
- Subjects: South Africa. Constitution , Human rights -- Government policy -- South Africa , Right to housing -- South Africa , Housing -- Law and legislation -- South Africa , Housing policy -- South Africa , Low income housing -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1011 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002746 , South Africa. Constitution , Human rights -- Government policy -- South Africa , Right to housing -- South Africa , Housing -- Law and legislation -- South Africa , Housing policy -- South Africa , Low income housing -- South Africa
- Description: Section 26 of the Constitution of South Africa Act 108 of 1996 provides that housing is a basic human right and that the government must take reasonable legislative and other measures to achieve the realisation of this right. A number of measures were taken to try to resolve this socio-economic issue. A number of housing institutions were established , various pieces of legislation were passed and housing subsidies were provided. However, housing backlogs remain a challenge. In March 1994 the housing backlog was estimated between 1,3 and 1,8 million units. When more than a million houses were provided by 2001 , the housing backlog had increased to between 2 and 3 million houses. To date subsidies in excess of R29 billion have been spent on housing provision. A study by the Department of Housing concluded that, at the current rate of increase of housing funding vis-a-vis the growing backlog and rapid urbanisation, the household backlog will not be changed in ten years' time. The United States of America (USA) had a similar low cost housing problem, but securitisation alleviated it with the participation of government agencies Fannie Mae, Ginnie Mae and Freddie Mac. In South Africa, the NHFC tried to emulate the USA model by establishing Gateway Home Loans (Pty) Limited (Gateway) in 1999. Gateway, however, was not a success. This research investigates whether securitisation can be applied in South Africa to alleviate the low cost housing issue. The study finds that there is a credit availability gap for the low income sector earning less than R8 000 per month because of the perceived risk of default and unwillingness by banks to lend to this sector. The increase in housing backlog that continues unabated, inadequate housing finance system to low income earners, the lessons learnt from the failure of Gateway, the success factors of the USA securitisation model and the sound and sophisticated South African financial system are the rationale for applying securitisation. A proposal of how to effectively apply securitisation to low cost housing in South Africa is provided with recommendations to revive the primary market.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
- Authors: Zimbwa, Allan Golden
- Date: 2007
- Subjects: South Africa. Constitution , Human rights -- Government policy -- South Africa , Right to housing -- South Africa , Housing -- Law and legislation -- South Africa , Housing policy -- South Africa , Low income housing -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1011 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002746 , South Africa. Constitution , Human rights -- Government policy -- South Africa , Right to housing -- South Africa , Housing -- Law and legislation -- South Africa , Housing policy -- South Africa , Low income housing -- South Africa
- Description: Section 26 of the Constitution of South Africa Act 108 of 1996 provides that housing is a basic human right and that the government must take reasonable legislative and other measures to achieve the realisation of this right. A number of measures were taken to try to resolve this socio-economic issue. A number of housing institutions were established , various pieces of legislation were passed and housing subsidies were provided. However, housing backlogs remain a challenge. In March 1994 the housing backlog was estimated between 1,3 and 1,8 million units. When more than a million houses were provided by 2001 , the housing backlog had increased to between 2 and 3 million houses. To date subsidies in excess of R29 billion have been spent on housing provision. A study by the Department of Housing concluded that, at the current rate of increase of housing funding vis-a-vis the growing backlog and rapid urbanisation, the household backlog will not be changed in ten years' time. The United States of America (USA) had a similar low cost housing problem, but securitisation alleviated it with the participation of government agencies Fannie Mae, Ginnie Mae and Freddie Mac. In South Africa, the NHFC tried to emulate the USA model by establishing Gateway Home Loans (Pty) Limited (Gateway) in 1999. Gateway, however, was not a success. This research investigates whether securitisation can be applied in South Africa to alleviate the low cost housing issue. The study finds that there is a credit availability gap for the low income sector earning less than R8 000 per month because of the perceived risk of default and unwillingness by banks to lend to this sector. The increase in housing backlog that continues unabated, inadequate housing finance system to low income earners, the lessons learnt from the failure of Gateway, the success factors of the USA securitisation model and the sound and sophisticated South African financial system are the rationale for applying securitisation. A proposal of how to effectively apply securitisation to low cost housing in South Africa is provided with recommendations to revive the primary market.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
The term structure of interest rates and economic activity in South Africa
- Authors: Shelile, Teboho
- Date: 2007
- Subjects: Finance -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions -- 21st century
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:994 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002729 , Finance -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions -- 21st century
- Description: Many research papers have documented the positive relationship between the slope of the yield curve and future real economic activity in different countries and different time periods. One explanation of this link is based on monetary policy. The forecasting ability of the term spread on economic growth is based on the fact that interest rates reflect the expectations of investors about the future economic situation when deciding about their plans for consumption and investment. This thesis examined the predictive ability of the term structure of interest rates on economic activity, and the effects of different monetary policy regimes on the predictive ability of the term spread. The South African experience offers a unique opportunity to examine this issue, as the country has experienced numerous monetary policy frameworks since the 1970s. The study employed the Generalised Method Moments technique, since it is considered to be more efficient than Ordinary Least Squares. Results presented in this thesis established that the term structure successfully predicted real economic activity during the entire research period with the exception of the last sub-period (2000-2004) when using the multivariate model. In the periods of financial market liberalisation and interest rates deregulation the term structure was found to be a better predictor of economic activity in South Africa. These findings emphasise the importance of considering the prevailing economic environment in testing the term structure theory.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
- Authors: Shelile, Teboho
- Date: 2007
- Subjects: Finance -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions -- 21st century
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:994 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002729 , Finance -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions -- 21st century
- Description: Many research papers have documented the positive relationship between the slope of the yield curve and future real economic activity in different countries and different time periods. One explanation of this link is based on monetary policy. The forecasting ability of the term spread on economic growth is based on the fact that interest rates reflect the expectations of investors about the future economic situation when deciding about their plans for consumption and investment. This thesis examined the predictive ability of the term structure of interest rates on economic activity, and the effects of different monetary policy regimes on the predictive ability of the term spread. The South African experience offers a unique opportunity to examine this issue, as the country has experienced numerous monetary policy frameworks since the 1970s. The study employed the Generalised Method Moments technique, since it is considered to be more efficient than Ordinary Least Squares. Results presented in this thesis established that the term structure successfully predicted real economic activity during the entire research period with the exception of the last sub-period (2000-2004) when using the multivariate model. In the periods of financial market liberalisation and interest rates deregulation the term structure was found to be a better predictor of economic activity in South Africa. These findings emphasise the importance of considering the prevailing economic environment in testing the term structure theory.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
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