An empirical analysis of financial stress within South Africa and its apparent co-movement with financial stress emanating from advanced and emerging economies
- Authors: Graham, Brydone
- Date: 2013
- Subjects: Financial crises -- South Africa Financial crises -- Developing countries Globalization -- Economic aspects -- South Africa International economic relations South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1053 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1006795
- Description: The identification of financial stress, and an understanding of financial contagion on a global scale, is of critical importance to a South African economy that is becoming increasingly integrated into the global economy. The last decade has been characterised by periods of high economic growth, but also periods of significant financial instability culminating in global economic crises. This study examines the extent to which the South African financial system is exposed to distress abroad by identifying and measuring the co-movement of financial stress originating from within and outside South Africa. The study can be separated into two sections: the identification of financial stress and the measurement of financial contagion. Using monthly data for the period 2000 to 2012, three indices were constructed for the emerging markets, advanced economies and South Africa using varianceequal weighting. The indices were tested for contagion using the Johansen and Jesulius (1990) multivariate cointegration approach supplemented with basic OLS architecture and Impulse Response analysis. The results indicate the three constructed indices were highly accurate at identifying the intensity and timing of financial stress over the three regions respectively. It was found that the South African financial sector is highly susceptible to financial stress originating from advanced economies. The results obtained for financial stress emanating from emerging markets were not as conclusive and found to be insignificant. Overall, it is clear that the methods employed to identify financial stress are highly accurate and that South Africa is highly susceptible to financial stress originating from abroad. It is clear that advanced economies have a greater ability to affect financial stress in South Africa via contagion. It must be noted that this does not conclude that South Africa is not affected by emerging market crises, but that these crises tend to affect South Africa through advanced economy channels as defined within this thesis.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2013
- Authors: Graham, Brydone
- Date: 2013
- Subjects: Financial crises -- South Africa Financial crises -- Developing countries Globalization -- Economic aspects -- South Africa International economic relations South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1053 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1006795
- Description: The identification of financial stress, and an understanding of financial contagion on a global scale, is of critical importance to a South African economy that is becoming increasingly integrated into the global economy. The last decade has been characterised by periods of high economic growth, but also periods of significant financial instability culminating in global economic crises. This study examines the extent to which the South African financial system is exposed to distress abroad by identifying and measuring the co-movement of financial stress originating from within and outside South Africa. The study can be separated into two sections: the identification of financial stress and the measurement of financial contagion. Using monthly data for the period 2000 to 2012, three indices were constructed for the emerging markets, advanced economies and South Africa using varianceequal weighting. The indices were tested for contagion using the Johansen and Jesulius (1990) multivariate cointegration approach supplemented with basic OLS architecture and Impulse Response analysis. The results indicate the three constructed indices were highly accurate at identifying the intensity and timing of financial stress over the three regions respectively. It was found that the South African financial sector is highly susceptible to financial stress originating from advanced economies. The results obtained for financial stress emanating from emerging markets were not as conclusive and found to be insignificant. Overall, it is clear that the methods employed to identify financial stress are highly accurate and that South Africa is highly susceptible to financial stress originating from abroad. It is clear that advanced economies have a greater ability to affect financial stress in South Africa via contagion. It must be noted that this does not conclude that South Africa is not affected by emerging market crises, but that these crises tend to affect South Africa through advanced economy channels as defined within this thesis.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2013
Government debt levels and the systemic risks associated with post-crisis fiscal policies
- Authors: Koekemoer, Jonathan
- Date: 2013
- Subjects: Finance, Public Debts, Public -- South Africa Fiscal policy Monetary policy -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1031 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1004168
- Description: The study analyses the concepts of intergenerational equity and fiscal sustainability in South Africa. The question raised is whether or not South Africa can adopt stimulatory fiscal measures, with a simultaneous increase in debt, so as to improve long-term growth potential in a sustainable manner without creating an excessive burden on future generations. The debate surrounding the use of stimulatory fiscal policy has come to the fore once again as monetary policy has become a restricted and ineffective macroeconomic policy tool in certain countries after the world-wide financial crisis and the Euro-debt crisis. Fiscal sustainability risks and high debt levels remain a source of concern in the United States and the Euro-zone, while South Africa presently seems to be at no great risk. With South Africa’s intention to become a developmental state, the use and appropriateness of fiscal policy is considered. An overlapping-generations model is used to determine whether or not future generations will be burdened due to current stimulatory policy. The use of fiscal rules in South Africa is discussed and considered in light of various political incentives and constraints. The conclusion given is that the possible use of a procedural fiscal rule, such as the ‘golden rule’, may add credibility to the current regime, while a numerical fiscal rule is seen as unnecessary given South Africa’s responsible use of fiscal policy thus far. As it stands, there is little possibility or risk that the public debt in South Africa will become too high in the near future. Although South Africa has been affected by the crisis, the developmental nature of the economy has been sustained through the use of responsible discretionary fiscal policy, putting South Africa in a positive position to meet its long-run growth potential.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2013
- Authors: Koekemoer, Jonathan
- Date: 2013
- Subjects: Finance, Public Debts, Public -- South Africa Fiscal policy Monetary policy -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1031 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1004168
- Description: The study analyses the concepts of intergenerational equity and fiscal sustainability in South Africa. The question raised is whether or not South Africa can adopt stimulatory fiscal measures, with a simultaneous increase in debt, so as to improve long-term growth potential in a sustainable manner without creating an excessive burden on future generations. The debate surrounding the use of stimulatory fiscal policy has come to the fore once again as monetary policy has become a restricted and ineffective macroeconomic policy tool in certain countries after the world-wide financial crisis and the Euro-debt crisis. Fiscal sustainability risks and high debt levels remain a source of concern in the United States and the Euro-zone, while South Africa presently seems to be at no great risk. With South Africa’s intention to become a developmental state, the use and appropriateness of fiscal policy is considered. An overlapping-generations model is used to determine whether or not future generations will be burdened due to current stimulatory policy. The use of fiscal rules in South Africa is discussed and considered in light of various political incentives and constraints. The conclusion given is that the possible use of a procedural fiscal rule, such as the ‘golden rule’, may add credibility to the current regime, while a numerical fiscal rule is seen as unnecessary given South Africa’s responsible use of fiscal policy thus far. As it stands, there is little possibility or risk that the public debt in South Africa will become too high in the near future. Although South Africa has been affected by the crisis, the developmental nature of the economy has been sustained through the use of responsible discretionary fiscal policy, putting South Africa in a positive position to meet its long-run growth potential.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2013
International joint ventures and firm value: an empirical study of South African partner firms
- Mangwengwende, Tadiwanashe Mukudzeyi
- Authors: Mangwengwende, Tadiwanashe Mukudzeyi
- Date: 2013
- Subjects: Joint ventures Joint ventures -- South Africa Business enterprises -- Valuation International business enterprises
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: vital:1033 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1004174
- Description: This study investigates international equity joint ventures (IJVs) and South African partner firm value creation at formation. In addition, it tests whether four contentious formation characteristics, namely, the geographical location of the IJV partner, the level of economic development in the IJV partner’s home country, the level of equity held by the South African firm and the industry of the South African firm, can explain when South African IJVs are value enhancing and when they are value diminishing. IJVs are a popular business mode and an important channel for infrastructure and skills investment in developing countries. However, despite their popularity and potential social benefits, these IJVs are predominantly created by the decisions of private firms to collaborate with foreign firms and governments. Consequently the preservation and development of the IJV investment channel is dependent on the encouragement of private firm IJV participation. It is at uncovering potential tools to encourage IJV participation by South African firms that IJV firm value creation becomes important because it stands as a motivator for South African firms’ involvement in IJVs. Existing literature on IJVs and partner firm value has presented conflicting evidence with support for the views that they are value enhancing, value diminishing or of no immediate consequence to their partners’ firm value. Consequently, previous research offers limited firm value support for IJVs. For South African firms considering joint ventures and national policy makers determined to promote IJVs there is a need for an investigation of South African partner IJV firm value effects. Moreover, it is also necessary to test potential explanatory variables that may help to explain when the IJVs are value enhancing and when they are not as this will inform IJV contract negotiations and how limited national government resources are used to promote IJVs. In order to assess firm value creation for South African firms this study performed event studies on IJV formation announcements from 1998 to 2011 using daily share returns from the Johannesburg Securities Exchange taking care to incorporate recent developments in the event study methodology. The study found that while the market responds to IJV announcements, its responses do not, on average, reflect that IJVs are firm value enhancing for their South African partners at formation. This stands in contrast to considerable empirical literature and IJV firm value creation theory. In addition, factoring in formation characteristics, argued to potentially help explain cases of value creation and destruction from IJVs, provided limited explanation for positive and negative wealth effectsfor South African firms entering IJVs. This result has important value for IJV participants, national economic policy makers and IJV researchers. For IJV participants and national policy makers, the results caution unfettered entry/support for IJVs and challenge the role of equity distribution in determining the value of the IJV to its partner firms. For IJV researchers, the results present new evidence questioning IJV firm value creation at formation and provide a potential explanation for the conflict in previous IJV research. The study makes four key contributions to the existing knowledge of IJV firm value creation. Firstly, it assesses IJV wealth effects for the hitherto untested South African IJVs. Secondly, in doing so it adds a new data set (South African IJVs) to the current IJV literature. Thirdly, in reviewing the literature on IJV firm value creation the study presents a disaggregated model of IJV firm value creation from which to develop IJV research and potentially solve the persistent conflict in empirical results on IJV partner wealth effects. Finally, it informs future South African IJV agreements by uncovering factors that influence and do not influence partner wealth effects for South African firms.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2013
- Authors: Mangwengwende, Tadiwanashe Mukudzeyi
- Date: 2013
- Subjects: Joint ventures Joint ventures -- South Africa Business enterprises -- Valuation International business enterprises
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: vital:1033 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1004174
- Description: This study investigates international equity joint ventures (IJVs) and South African partner firm value creation at formation. In addition, it tests whether four contentious formation characteristics, namely, the geographical location of the IJV partner, the level of economic development in the IJV partner’s home country, the level of equity held by the South African firm and the industry of the South African firm, can explain when South African IJVs are value enhancing and when they are value diminishing. IJVs are a popular business mode and an important channel for infrastructure and skills investment in developing countries. However, despite their popularity and potential social benefits, these IJVs are predominantly created by the decisions of private firms to collaborate with foreign firms and governments. Consequently the preservation and development of the IJV investment channel is dependent on the encouragement of private firm IJV participation. It is at uncovering potential tools to encourage IJV participation by South African firms that IJV firm value creation becomes important because it stands as a motivator for South African firms’ involvement in IJVs. Existing literature on IJVs and partner firm value has presented conflicting evidence with support for the views that they are value enhancing, value diminishing or of no immediate consequence to their partners’ firm value. Consequently, previous research offers limited firm value support for IJVs. For South African firms considering joint ventures and national policy makers determined to promote IJVs there is a need for an investigation of South African partner IJV firm value effects. Moreover, it is also necessary to test potential explanatory variables that may help to explain when the IJVs are value enhancing and when they are not as this will inform IJV contract negotiations and how limited national government resources are used to promote IJVs. In order to assess firm value creation for South African firms this study performed event studies on IJV formation announcements from 1998 to 2011 using daily share returns from the Johannesburg Securities Exchange taking care to incorporate recent developments in the event study methodology. The study found that while the market responds to IJV announcements, its responses do not, on average, reflect that IJVs are firm value enhancing for their South African partners at formation. This stands in contrast to considerable empirical literature and IJV firm value creation theory. In addition, factoring in formation characteristics, argued to potentially help explain cases of value creation and destruction from IJVs, provided limited explanation for positive and negative wealth effectsfor South African firms entering IJVs. This result has important value for IJV participants, national economic policy makers and IJV researchers. For IJV participants and national policy makers, the results caution unfettered entry/support for IJVs and challenge the role of equity distribution in determining the value of the IJV to its partner firms. For IJV researchers, the results present new evidence questioning IJV firm value creation at formation and provide a potential explanation for the conflict in previous IJV research. The study makes four key contributions to the existing knowledge of IJV firm value creation. Firstly, it assesses IJV wealth effects for the hitherto untested South African IJVs. Secondly, in doing so it adds a new data set (South African IJVs) to the current IJV literature. Thirdly, in reviewing the literature on IJV firm value creation the study presents a disaggregated model of IJV firm value creation from which to develop IJV research and potentially solve the persistent conflict in empirical results on IJV partner wealth effects. Finally, it informs future South African IJV agreements by uncovering factors that influence and do not influence partner wealth effects for South African firms.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2013
The power of investor sentiment: an analysis of the impact of investor confidence on South African financial markets
- Authors: Argyros, Robert
- Date: 2013
- Subjects: Johannesburg Stock Exchange Stockholders Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa Stock Exchanges Investments
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1032 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1004169
- Description: Whether investor sentiment has any authority over financial markets has long been a topic of discussion in the field of finance. This study investigates the relationship between investor sentiment and share returns in South Africa. Determining this relationship will add to the existing work which has documented important determinants of share returns on the stock exchange in South Africa, as well adding to the inconclusive link between sentiment and the South African financial markets. Does sentiment influence share returns or do share returns influence sentiment? Using quarterly data for the period 1996-2010, the study makes use of the FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index as a proxy for investor sentiment, and the FTSE/JSE All Share Index to represent the South African financial markets. A regression analysis was conducted along with granger-causality tests, impulse response functions and variance decompositions in order to determine the nature of this relationship. The results showed that investor sentiment has a statistically significant relationship with share returns in South Africa. However, sentiment is only able to account for a very small portion of the variation in returns, with returns able to account for a larger portion of the variation in sentiment. Therefore investor sentiment is not a suitable predictor of share returns in South Africa. In addition, granger-causality tests indicate that returns are actually the leading indicator, suggesting that changes in South African investors’ confidence levels occur following changes in the state of the JSE. The limitations of the study include the infrequent nature of the sentiment measure used, thereby failing to capture important changes in sentiment and their immediate impact on financial markets. In addition, the sentiment of foreign investors must be taken into account due to the large foreign investment in the JSE.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2013
- Authors: Argyros, Robert
- Date: 2013
- Subjects: Johannesburg Stock Exchange Stockholders Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa Stock Exchanges Investments
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1032 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1004169
- Description: Whether investor sentiment has any authority over financial markets has long been a topic of discussion in the field of finance. This study investigates the relationship between investor sentiment and share returns in South Africa. Determining this relationship will add to the existing work which has documented important determinants of share returns on the stock exchange in South Africa, as well adding to the inconclusive link between sentiment and the South African financial markets. Does sentiment influence share returns or do share returns influence sentiment? Using quarterly data for the period 1996-2010, the study makes use of the FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index as a proxy for investor sentiment, and the FTSE/JSE All Share Index to represent the South African financial markets. A regression analysis was conducted along with granger-causality tests, impulse response functions and variance decompositions in order to determine the nature of this relationship. The results showed that investor sentiment has a statistically significant relationship with share returns in South Africa. However, sentiment is only able to account for a very small portion of the variation in returns, with returns able to account for a larger portion of the variation in sentiment. Therefore investor sentiment is not a suitable predictor of share returns in South Africa. In addition, granger-causality tests indicate that returns are actually the leading indicator, suggesting that changes in South African investors’ confidence levels occur following changes in the state of the JSE. The limitations of the study include the infrequent nature of the sentiment measure used, thereby failing to capture important changes in sentiment and their immediate impact on financial markets. In addition, the sentiment of foreign investors must be taken into account due to the large foreign investment in the JSE.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2013
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