A comparative analysis of the divisia index and the simple sum monetary aggregates for South Africa
- Authors: Moyo, Solomon Simbarashe
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: Monetary policy -- South Africa , Money supply -- South Africa , Inflation finance -- South Africa , Index numbers (Economics)
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:945 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002679 , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Money supply -- South Africa , Inflation finance -- South Africa , Index numbers (Economics)
- Description: The effectiveness of monetary policy in achieving its macroeconomic objectives such as price stability and economic growth depend on the monetary policy tools that are implemented by the Central Bank. Monetary aggregates are one of the tools that have been used as indicators of economic activity and as intermediate targets to achieve these economic objectives. Until recently, monetary aggregates have been questioned and criticised on their usefulness in monetary policy. This has been attributed to the economic, financial and technological developments that have distorted the relationship between monetary aggregates and major macroeconomic variables. This study investigates the relevance of monetary aggregation by comparing the traditional simple sum and Divisia index monetary aggregates which was constructed for the first time for South Africa using the Tornquist-Theil method. The Polynomial Distributed Lag model is employed to compare the performance of these monetary aggregates using their relationship with inflation and manufacturing index. Furthermore, the aggregates are compared in terms of their controllability and information content. Overall, the study found a very strong relationship between inflation and all the monetary aggregates. However, more specifically the results suggested that the Divisia indices are superior to the simple sum in terms of predicting inflation. The evidence further suggests that the Divisia aggregates provide higher information about inflation than the simple sum aggregates. Regarding the controllability of the monetary aggregates, the findings suggest that the monetary authorities can hardly control the monetary aggregates using monetary base. Finally, the relationship between manufacturing index and all the monetary aggregates was very weak.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2009
- Authors: Moyo, Solomon Simbarashe
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: Monetary policy -- South Africa , Money supply -- South Africa , Inflation finance -- South Africa , Index numbers (Economics)
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:945 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002679 , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Money supply -- South Africa , Inflation finance -- South Africa , Index numbers (Economics)
- Description: The effectiveness of monetary policy in achieving its macroeconomic objectives such as price stability and economic growth depend on the monetary policy tools that are implemented by the Central Bank. Monetary aggregates are one of the tools that have been used as indicators of economic activity and as intermediate targets to achieve these economic objectives. Until recently, monetary aggregates have been questioned and criticised on their usefulness in monetary policy. This has been attributed to the economic, financial and technological developments that have distorted the relationship between monetary aggregates and major macroeconomic variables. This study investigates the relevance of monetary aggregation by comparing the traditional simple sum and Divisia index monetary aggregates which was constructed for the first time for South Africa using the Tornquist-Theil method. The Polynomial Distributed Lag model is employed to compare the performance of these monetary aggregates using their relationship with inflation and manufacturing index. Furthermore, the aggregates are compared in terms of their controllability and information content. Overall, the study found a very strong relationship between inflation and all the monetary aggregates. However, more specifically the results suggested that the Divisia indices are superior to the simple sum in terms of predicting inflation. The evidence further suggests that the Divisia aggregates provide higher information about inflation than the simple sum aggregates. Regarding the controllability of the monetary aggregates, the findings suggest that the monetary authorities can hardly control the monetary aggregates using monetary base. Finally, the relationship between manufacturing index and all the monetary aggregates was very weak.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2009
The covariation of South African and foreign equity returns during bull and bear runs : implications for portfolio diversification
- Authors: Mhlanga, Godfrey
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Portfolio management -- South Africa , Investments -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:944 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002678
- Description: This study examines the pattern of covariation of the industrial index returns of South Africa and foreign industrial sectors. This follows recent increase in national equity correlations and increases in the influence of industry effects in portfolio diversification. The covariation pattern in returns across industries and countries during both bull and bear runs is examined using correlation analysis to determine if there is a difference between the two epochs. The study presents preliminary evidence of the covariation between sectors during a bear and a bull run. Return covariation among sectors is impelled to a greater extent by country-specific factors than by industry-specific factors, implying the segmentation of industrial sectors. Thus, South African investors can in general gain more if a portfolio comprising shares across industries and countries is held, even if these investors buy shares from similar industries.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2009
- Authors: Mhlanga, Godfrey
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Portfolio management -- South Africa , Investments -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:944 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002678
- Description: This study examines the pattern of covariation of the industrial index returns of South Africa and foreign industrial sectors. This follows recent increase in national equity correlations and increases in the influence of industry effects in portfolio diversification. The covariation pattern in returns across industries and countries during both bull and bear runs is examined using correlation analysis to determine if there is a difference between the two epochs. The study presents preliminary evidence of the covariation between sectors during a bear and a bull run. Return covariation among sectors is impelled to a greater extent by country-specific factors than by industry-specific factors, implying the segmentation of industrial sectors. Thus, South African investors can in general gain more if a portfolio comprising shares across industries and countries is held, even if these investors buy shares from similar industries.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2009
The relationship between accounting choices and share prices : a study of South African listed companies
- Authors: Bunting, Mark Bevan
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: Financial statements -- South Africa , Accounting -- South Africa , Managerial accounting -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:989 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002724 , Financial statements -- South Africa , Accounting -- South Africa , Managerial accounting -- South Africa
- Description: It is widely assumed that the managers of companies behave in a self-interested and opportunistic manner when making the discretionary accounting choices that are applied in the preparation of published financial reports. Empirical research has found evidence for this in the United States, Britain, Spain, France and Australia, amongst other countries. There has, however, been no prior work of a similar nature in a South African context. The purpose of this study is to extend this body of work by examining the relationship between a number of potentially opportunistic (profit-increasing, income-smoothing and solvencyimproving) accounting choices made by the managers of South African listed companies, and growth rates in the share prices of those companies. Data in respect of thirty-nine medium-sized South African listed companies are analysed for evidence of the expected positive relationship between opportunistic accounting choices and share price growth. No evidence is found for this relationship. This may be due to limitations in the research design, inadequacies in the interpretation of the agency theory from which the hypotheses are developed, or a combination of both. Refinements in the research design or a re-interpretation of the theory may be successful in addressing these matters as part of future research efforts.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2009
- Authors: Bunting, Mark Bevan
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: Financial statements -- South Africa , Accounting -- South Africa , Managerial accounting -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:989 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002724 , Financial statements -- South Africa , Accounting -- South Africa , Managerial accounting -- South Africa
- Description: It is widely assumed that the managers of companies behave in a self-interested and opportunistic manner when making the discretionary accounting choices that are applied in the preparation of published financial reports. Empirical research has found evidence for this in the United States, Britain, Spain, France and Australia, amongst other countries. There has, however, been no prior work of a similar nature in a South African context. The purpose of this study is to extend this body of work by examining the relationship between a number of potentially opportunistic (profit-increasing, income-smoothing and solvencyimproving) accounting choices made by the managers of South African listed companies, and growth rates in the share prices of those companies. Data in respect of thirty-nine medium-sized South African listed companies are analysed for evidence of the expected positive relationship between opportunistic accounting choices and share price growth. No evidence is found for this relationship. This may be due to limitations in the research design, inadequacies in the interpretation of the agency theory from which the hypotheses are developed, or a combination of both. Refinements in the research design or a re-interpretation of the theory may be successful in addressing these matters as part of future research efforts.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2009
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