An analysis of the determinants and recent decline of private savings in South Africa
- Authors: Linde, Kathryn Leigh
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Saving and investment -- Research -- South Africa Finance, Personal -- Research -- South Africa Corporations -- Finance -- Research -- South Africa Economic development -- Research -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1007 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002742
- Description: Low domestic saving rates make South Africa highly dependent on foreign capital inflows to fund higher investment levels. These inflows are highly volatile and may prove to be unsustainable in the long-run. This study analyses the determinants of private saving in South Africa, with specific reference to the decline in private saving rates that occurred at a time of higher economic growth prior to the 2008 global financial crisis. The Johansen cointegration method is used to estimate separate vector error correction models (VECM) in order to assess the effect of specific variables on both corporate and household saving. The results obtained that are common to both corporate and household savmg show that the govemment budget balance negatively impacts private saving rates though the offset is less than one. The real prime overdraft rate positively impacts private saving, although the result is small . The impact of real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is positive. In recent years, however, private saving rates fell alongside higher economic growth, which may reflect a structural change in corporate saving behaviour. The results distinct to the corporate saving model show that commodity prices have a negative impact on corporate saving. This does not conform to a priori expectations, but is supported by the behaviour of these two variables in recent years. Foreign savings were found to impact negatively on corporate saving. This result is important, since the dependence of the South African economy on foreign capital inflows to fund higher investment levels is reflected by high current account deficits during recent periods of economic growth. Evidence of financial liberalization negatively impacting on private saving in South Africa due to the removal of borrowing constraints was found. A negative relationship was found between corporate saving and investment demonstrating that corporations have reduced levels of retained eamings for funding investment expenditures. The results distinct to the household saving model provide evidence of a negative wealth effect in South Africa, with rising housing wealth found to increase consumption. Evidence of households "piercing the corporate veil" in South Africa was found. Therefore, households view corporate saving behaviour as essentially being conducted on their behalf. This finding and the finding that the offset between the budget deficit and private saving is less than one suggest that counter-cyclical fiscal policy will be an important policy response for achieving higher domestic saving rates in South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
- Authors: Linde, Kathryn Leigh
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Saving and investment -- Research -- South Africa Finance, Personal -- Research -- South Africa Corporations -- Finance -- Research -- South Africa Economic development -- Research -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1007 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002742
- Description: Low domestic saving rates make South Africa highly dependent on foreign capital inflows to fund higher investment levels. These inflows are highly volatile and may prove to be unsustainable in the long-run. This study analyses the determinants of private saving in South Africa, with specific reference to the decline in private saving rates that occurred at a time of higher economic growth prior to the 2008 global financial crisis. The Johansen cointegration method is used to estimate separate vector error correction models (VECM) in order to assess the effect of specific variables on both corporate and household saving. The results obtained that are common to both corporate and household savmg show that the govemment budget balance negatively impacts private saving rates though the offset is less than one. The real prime overdraft rate positively impacts private saving, although the result is small . The impact of real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is positive. In recent years, however, private saving rates fell alongside higher economic growth, which may reflect a structural change in corporate saving behaviour. The results distinct to the corporate saving model show that commodity prices have a negative impact on corporate saving. This does not conform to a priori expectations, but is supported by the behaviour of these two variables in recent years. Foreign savings were found to impact negatively on corporate saving. This result is important, since the dependence of the South African economy on foreign capital inflows to fund higher investment levels is reflected by high current account deficits during recent periods of economic growth. Evidence of financial liberalization negatively impacting on private saving in South Africa due to the removal of borrowing constraints was found. A negative relationship was found between corporate saving and investment demonstrating that corporations have reduced levels of retained eamings for funding investment expenditures. The results distinct to the household saving model provide evidence of a negative wealth effect in South Africa, with rising housing wealth found to increase consumption. Evidence of households "piercing the corporate veil" in South Africa was found. Therefore, households view corporate saving behaviour as essentially being conducted on their behalf. This finding and the finding that the offset between the budget deficit and private saving is less than one suggest that counter-cyclical fiscal policy will be an important policy response for achieving higher domestic saving rates in South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
An investigation into the impact of fairtrade in South Africa
- Authors: Jari, Bridget
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Competition, Unfair -- Research -- South Africa Price maintenance -- Research -- South Africa Fair trade associations -- South Africa Sustainable development -- Africa, Southern
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: vital:1006 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002741
- Description: World international trade is moving towards more free trade, through globalization and trade liberalization. These moves are guided by trade theories which state that on an aggregated level, nations involved in free trade should benefit, and further that free trade is fair. However, in practice, contradictory views have been raised, stating that free trade may not necessarily be benefiting all participants equally. Rather, other nations, especially developing nations, have become worse-off after opening up their markets for free trade. On the other hand, many developed nations have benefited substantially from free trade. Among other factors, the difference in benefits is believed to have been influenced by the types of commodities being traded (where developing nations mainly trade in primary goods and developed nations in anufactured goods) and unequal power relations (some nations for example, the EU and the US, still adopt protectionism in their agricultural sector). In order to address market imbalances resulting from free trade, Fairtrade has arisen. Fairtrade aims to improve international trading conditions in order to benefit small-scale farmers and farm workers in the developing nations. The Fairtrade organization further claims that its principles are in line with sustainable development. However, Fairtrade suffers a credibility gap because there is a lack of independent research to support their claims. To date in South Africa, there is little research examining the claims of the Fairtrade organization. In order to contribute to the Fairtrade discussion in South Africa, this study has investigated the validity of Fairtrade‘s claims that it contributes towards sustainable development. The study utilised primary data, which was collected from ten commercial farms and two small-scale farmer cooperatives located in the Eastern Cape and Western Cape provinces that are/were Fairtrade certified. The main reason for including commercial farmers and small-scale farmer cooperatives in the study was for comparing relative impacts in the two Fairtrade structures. The data was then analysed using a sustainable livelihoods framework, which was developed in the study. The study focussed on investigating the impact of Fairtrade tools, which are minimum prices, premiums, pre-financing and support for long-term relationships, on its intended beneficiaries. Minimum prices offered to producers cover production costs and are above market prices, and Fairtrade premiums are to be invested in developmental projects. Therefore, examining the influence of Fairtrade tools on individuals and communities provides an overview of how Fairtrade influences development. The results of the study show that sampled Fairtrade beneficiaries in South Africa have witnessed substantial positive changes as a result of Fairtrade. The Fairtrade initiative has managed to empower small-scale producers and farm workers, as well as leverage development opportunities for their wider communities. It has supported organizational development in the supply chain, facilitated investment in community development projects and in business-related training. Producers, both commercial and small-scale producers, managed to access a market that offers stable prices, and have gained from minimum prices. Furthermore, small-scale farmers have been allowed an opportunity to expand their business into export markets, and enjoyed an increase in incomes. Fairtrade benefits further trickle down to non-Fairtrade community members, in the form of employment creation and community development. Despite positive effects, Fairtrade producers faced challenges, including high Fairtrade administration costs and a small market for Fairtrade commodities. The study concludes that in the face of challenges, Fairtrade brings economic, social and environmental benefits, but as compared to economic and social development, the impact on environmental development is rather limited. Even though that is the case, Fairtrade offers valuable development opportunities to producers in South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
- Authors: Jari, Bridget
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Competition, Unfair -- Research -- South Africa Price maintenance -- Research -- South Africa Fair trade associations -- South Africa Sustainable development -- Africa, Southern
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: vital:1006 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002741
- Description: World international trade is moving towards more free trade, through globalization and trade liberalization. These moves are guided by trade theories which state that on an aggregated level, nations involved in free trade should benefit, and further that free trade is fair. However, in practice, contradictory views have been raised, stating that free trade may not necessarily be benefiting all participants equally. Rather, other nations, especially developing nations, have become worse-off after opening up their markets for free trade. On the other hand, many developed nations have benefited substantially from free trade. Among other factors, the difference in benefits is believed to have been influenced by the types of commodities being traded (where developing nations mainly trade in primary goods and developed nations in anufactured goods) and unequal power relations (some nations for example, the EU and the US, still adopt protectionism in their agricultural sector). In order to address market imbalances resulting from free trade, Fairtrade has arisen. Fairtrade aims to improve international trading conditions in order to benefit small-scale farmers and farm workers in the developing nations. The Fairtrade organization further claims that its principles are in line with sustainable development. However, Fairtrade suffers a credibility gap because there is a lack of independent research to support their claims. To date in South Africa, there is little research examining the claims of the Fairtrade organization. In order to contribute to the Fairtrade discussion in South Africa, this study has investigated the validity of Fairtrade‘s claims that it contributes towards sustainable development. The study utilised primary data, which was collected from ten commercial farms and two small-scale farmer cooperatives located in the Eastern Cape and Western Cape provinces that are/were Fairtrade certified. The main reason for including commercial farmers and small-scale farmer cooperatives in the study was for comparing relative impacts in the two Fairtrade structures. The data was then analysed using a sustainable livelihoods framework, which was developed in the study. The study focussed on investigating the impact of Fairtrade tools, which are minimum prices, premiums, pre-financing and support for long-term relationships, on its intended beneficiaries. Minimum prices offered to producers cover production costs and are above market prices, and Fairtrade premiums are to be invested in developmental projects. Therefore, examining the influence of Fairtrade tools on individuals and communities provides an overview of how Fairtrade influences development. The results of the study show that sampled Fairtrade beneficiaries in South Africa have witnessed substantial positive changes as a result of Fairtrade. The Fairtrade initiative has managed to empower small-scale producers and farm workers, as well as leverage development opportunities for their wider communities. It has supported organizational development in the supply chain, facilitated investment in community development projects and in business-related training. Producers, both commercial and small-scale producers, managed to access a market that offers stable prices, and have gained from minimum prices. Furthermore, small-scale farmers have been allowed an opportunity to expand their business into export markets, and enjoyed an increase in incomes. Fairtrade benefits further trickle down to non-Fairtrade community members, in the form of employment creation and community development. Despite positive effects, Fairtrade producers faced challenges, including high Fairtrade administration costs and a small market for Fairtrade commodities. The study concludes that in the face of challenges, Fairtrade brings economic, social and environmental benefits, but as compared to economic and social development, the impact on environmental development is rather limited. Even though that is the case, Fairtrade offers valuable development opportunities to producers in South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
Can sport impact rational investor behaviour? : an evaluation of the impact of national sporting performance on stock market returns in South Africa
- Authors: De Beer, Carl Francois
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Investments -- Psychological aspects -- Research -- South Africa Finance -- Psychological aspects -- Research -- South Africa Sports -- Economic aspects -- Research -- South Africa Sports -- Psychological aspects -- Research -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MEcon
- Identifier: vital:1013 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002748
- Description: The finance industry is an extremely fast and complex world dominated by the Efficient Markets Hypothesis (EMH). This theory contains many assumptions which include that investors are rational utility maximisers and that market prices reflect all relevant economic information available to the public. However, over the years, a new form of financial literature known as behavioural finance has been gaining momentum. Behavioural finance seeks to bridge the gap between psychology and economics in an attempt to gain a better understanding of how markets react to different situations. Behavioural finance has also gained much attention in recent years due to the EMH’s inability to explain many economic anomalies. This study first considers the differences between behavioural finance theory and EMH theory before explaining how an individual’s mood has the ability to influence one’s risk taking preferences. Mood changes were also found to be linked to changes in the way an individual reacts to different situations, the way they thinks and processes thoughts. Negative events were also found to have a greater influence on an individual’s mood than positive events did, resulting in an asymmetric relationship between positive and negative results. This study then examines numerous studies indicating how non-economic events can have a statistical and significant influence on stock market returns before analysing previous literature where sport was found to influence market prices. The aim of this study is to determine if South African national sporting performance can influence investors in such a way that it has the ability to impact on market returns. Using standard event study methodology, this study determines the constant mean return using the daily All-Share price index on the JSE for the period of 1 January 1990 to 31 December 2010. This study focuses on three of South Africa’s most popular sports, namely soccer, cricket and rugby and examine if these three sports have the ability to influence market returns. Although there is some evidence of a relationship between stock returns and sporting performance in the descriptive analysis, the regression results indicate that sporting performance in South Africa does not significantly explain abnormal market returns on the JSE. The study provides a number of possible reasons for this finding and concludes by suggesting areas for future research.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
- Authors: De Beer, Carl Francois
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Investments -- Psychological aspects -- Research -- South Africa Finance -- Psychological aspects -- Research -- South Africa Sports -- Economic aspects -- Research -- South Africa Sports -- Psychological aspects -- Research -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MEcon
- Identifier: vital:1013 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002748
- Description: The finance industry is an extremely fast and complex world dominated by the Efficient Markets Hypothesis (EMH). This theory contains many assumptions which include that investors are rational utility maximisers and that market prices reflect all relevant economic information available to the public. However, over the years, a new form of financial literature known as behavioural finance has been gaining momentum. Behavioural finance seeks to bridge the gap between psychology and economics in an attempt to gain a better understanding of how markets react to different situations. Behavioural finance has also gained much attention in recent years due to the EMH’s inability to explain many economic anomalies. This study first considers the differences between behavioural finance theory and EMH theory before explaining how an individual’s mood has the ability to influence one’s risk taking preferences. Mood changes were also found to be linked to changes in the way an individual reacts to different situations, the way they thinks and processes thoughts. Negative events were also found to have a greater influence on an individual’s mood than positive events did, resulting in an asymmetric relationship between positive and negative results. This study then examines numerous studies indicating how non-economic events can have a statistical and significant influence on stock market returns before analysing previous literature where sport was found to influence market prices. The aim of this study is to determine if South African national sporting performance can influence investors in such a way that it has the ability to impact on market returns. Using standard event study methodology, this study determines the constant mean return using the daily All-Share price index on the JSE for the period of 1 January 1990 to 31 December 2010. This study focuses on three of South Africa’s most popular sports, namely soccer, cricket and rugby and examine if these three sports have the ability to influence market returns. Although there is some evidence of a relationship between stock returns and sporting performance in the descriptive analysis, the regression results indicate that sporting performance in South Africa does not significantly explain abnormal market returns on the JSE. The study provides a number of possible reasons for this finding and concludes by suggesting areas for future research.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
Financial liberalization, financial development and economic growth: the case for South Africa
- Authors: Savanhu, Tatenda
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Economic development -- Case studies -- South Africa Principal components analysis Econometric models Vector analysis Finance -- Management -- South Africa Economic policy -- South Africa Banks and banking -- South Africa Investments -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1048 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1006197
- Description: Financial liberalization in South Africa was a process that took the form of various legal reforms very a long period of time. This study uses quarterly financial data from 1969 quarter one to 2009 quarter four to analyse this process. The data used was pertinent to the financial liberalization theorem by McKinnon (1973) and Shaw (1973). The examination of the relationships between the various macro economic variables has important implications for effective policy formulation. The empirical analysis is carried out in four phases: the preliminary analysis, the principal component analysis (PCA), the cointegration analysis and pair wise Granger causality tests. The preliminary analysis examines trends over the sample period and reports the on the correlation between the selected variables. The PCA analysis was used to create indexes for financial liberalization, taking into account the phase wise nature of legal reforms. The generated index was representative of the process of financial liberalization from 1969 to 2009. A financial development index was also created using the various traditional measures of financial development and through PCA which investigated interrelationships among the variables according to their common sources of movement. Cointegration analysis is carried out using the Johansen cointegration procedure which investigates whether there is long-run comovement between South African economic growth and the selected macroeconomic variables. Where cointegration is found, Vector Error-Correction Models (VECMs) are estimated in order to examine the short-run adjustments. For robustness, many control variables were added into the model. The results showed that there are positive long run relationships between economic growth and financial liberalization, financial development and a negative relationship with interest rates. The Granger results suggested that the MS hypothesis does not manifest accurately in the South African data. The implications of the results were that financial liberalization has had positive effects on economic growth and thus any impediments to full financial liberalization must be removed albeit with considerations towards employment and local productivity. Financial development also possessed positive long run relationships with economic growth, although results differed based on the financial development proxy used. Thus, financial development must be improved primarily through liberalizing the banking sector and spurring savings.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
- Authors: Savanhu, Tatenda
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Economic development -- Case studies -- South Africa Principal components analysis Econometric models Vector analysis Finance -- Management -- South Africa Economic policy -- South Africa Banks and banking -- South Africa Investments -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1048 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1006197
- Description: Financial liberalization in South Africa was a process that took the form of various legal reforms very a long period of time. This study uses quarterly financial data from 1969 quarter one to 2009 quarter four to analyse this process. The data used was pertinent to the financial liberalization theorem by McKinnon (1973) and Shaw (1973). The examination of the relationships between the various macro economic variables has important implications for effective policy formulation. The empirical analysis is carried out in four phases: the preliminary analysis, the principal component analysis (PCA), the cointegration analysis and pair wise Granger causality tests. The preliminary analysis examines trends over the sample period and reports the on the correlation between the selected variables. The PCA analysis was used to create indexes for financial liberalization, taking into account the phase wise nature of legal reforms. The generated index was representative of the process of financial liberalization from 1969 to 2009. A financial development index was also created using the various traditional measures of financial development and through PCA which investigated interrelationships among the variables according to their common sources of movement. Cointegration analysis is carried out using the Johansen cointegration procedure which investigates whether there is long-run comovement between South African economic growth and the selected macroeconomic variables. Where cointegration is found, Vector Error-Correction Models (VECMs) are estimated in order to examine the short-run adjustments. For robustness, many control variables were added into the model. The results showed that there are positive long run relationships between economic growth and financial liberalization, financial development and a negative relationship with interest rates. The Granger results suggested that the MS hypothesis does not manifest accurately in the South African data. The implications of the results were that financial liberalization has had positive effects on economic growth and thus any impediments to full financial liberalization must be removed albeit with considerations towards employment and local productivity. Financial development also possessed positive long run relationships with economic growth, although results differed based on the financial development proxy used. Thus, financial development must be improved primarily through liberalizing the banking sector and spurring savings.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
Financial sector development and sectoral output growth evidence from South Africa
- Authors: Tongo, Yanga
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa Agriculture -- Economic aspects -- South Africa Mineral industries -- Economic aspects -- South Africa Manufacturing industries -- Economic aspects -- South Africa South Africa -- Economic conditions Autoregression (Statistics) Econometric models Stock exchanges -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1004 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002739
- Description: The goal of the study is to examine the relationship between financial sector development and output growth in the agricultural, mining and manufacturing sectors in South Africa. The analysis is based on the hypothesis that financial development is essential for promoting production growth in an economy. To test the hypothesis, in the South African context, the vector autoregressive model (VAR) framework and Granger causality test are applied to a quarterly data set starting from 1970 quarter one to 2009 quarter four. The results suggest that financial intermediary development (bank based measure) and stock market development (market based measure) have a positive impact on output growth in the agriculture, mining and manufacturing sectors in South Africa. There is evidence of a one way causal relationship between financial sector development and sectoral output growth. Particularly, there is evidence that financial intermediary development and stock market development causes output growth in the agriculture, mining and manufacturing sectors in South Africa. However, there is no evidence showing causality running from sectoral output growth to financial sector development. The results provide evidence supporting the theory which states that financial development is essential to promote output growth in a country i.e. in our case South Africa. Thus an efficient financial system which promotes efficient channeling of resources towards the agricultural, mining and manufacturing sectors should be built.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
- Authors: Tongo, Yanga
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa Agriculture -- Economic aspects -- South Africa Mineral industries -- Economic aspects -- South Africa Manufacturing industries -- Economic aspects -- South Africa South Africa -- Economic conditions Autoregression (Statistics) Econometric models Stock exchanges -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1004 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002739
- Description: The goal of the study is to examine the relationship between financial sector development and output growth in the agricultural, mining and manufacturing sectors in South Africa. The analysis is based on the hypothesis that financial development is essential for promoting production growth in an economy. To test the hypothesis, in the South African context, the vector autoregressive model (VAR) framework and Granger causality test are applied to a quarterly data set starting from 1970 quarter one to 2009 quarter four. The results suggest that financial intermediary development (bank based measure) and stock market development (market based measure) have a positive impact on output growth in the agriculture, mining and manufacturing sectors in South Africa. There is evidence of a one way causal relationship between financial sector development and sectoral output growth. Particularly, there is evidence that financial intermediary development and stock market development causes output growth in the agriculture, mining and manufacturing sectors in South Africa. However, there is no evidence showing causality running from sectoral output growth to financial sector development. The results provide evidence supporting the theory which states that financial development is essential to promote output growth in a country i.e. in our case South Africa. Thus an efficient financial system which promotes efficient channeling of resources towards the agricultural, mining and manufacturing sectors should be built.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
Interest rate pass-through in Cameroon and Nigeria: a comparative analysis
- Authors: Tita, Anthanasius Fomum
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Interest rates -- Cameroon Interest rates -- Nigeria Interest rates -- Effect of inflation on -- Cameroon Interest rates -- Effect of inflation on -- Nigeria Interest rates -- Econometric models Cointegration Monetary policy -- Cameroon Monetary policy -- Nigeria Banque des états de l'Afrique centrale Banks and banking -- Cameroon Banks and banking -- Nigeria
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1005 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002740
- Description: One of the most important aspects of monetary policy is an understanding of the transmission process: the mechanism through which the monetary policy actions of the Central Bank impact on aggregate demand and prices by influencing the investment and consumption decisions of households and firms. Thus, commercial banks are regarded as conveyers of monetary policy shocks and are expected to adjust retail interest rates in response to policy shocks one-to-one. In practice, commercial banks adjust their retail rates in response to changes in monetary policy with a lag of several months and this delay is often viewed as an impediment on the ability of the Central Bank to steer the economy. Several reasons, such as credit rationing and adverse selection, switching costs, risk sharing, consumer irrationality, structure of the financial system, menu costs and asymmetric information are some of the causes advanced for commercial banks retail rates being sticky. In spite of the important role of pass-through analysis in the monetary policy transmission process, it has received very little attention in Sub-Saharan Africa, especially in Cameroon and Nigeria, which have implemented a series of reforms. To this end, this study gives a comparative analysis of interest rate pass-through in Nigeria and Cameroon using retail rates (lending and deposit) and a discount rate (policy rate) from January 1990 to December 2010 for Nigeria and from January 1990 to June 2008 for Cameroon. The study examines the magnitude and speed of retail rate adjustments to changes in the Central Bank policy rate as well as examining the possibility of symmetric and asymmetric pass-through in both countries. In addition, the study also investigates whether there is pass-through of monetary policy from one country to the other. The empirical analysis employs four different types of co-integration techniques to test the presence of a long run co-integrating relationship between retail and the policy rates in order to ensure that the relationship detected is robust. Three sets of analyses are carried out in the study. Following Cottarelli and Kourelis (1994), the study employed a co-integration technique, firstly, to analyse pass-through for the entire sample, secondly, to analyse symmetric and asymmetric pass-through using a ten year rolling window analysis in an error correction framework. Finally, the policy rates were swapped around to investigate if there are transmissions of impulses from one country to the other. Overall, evidence from the entire sample and rolling window analysis suggests that monetary policy in Cameroon is less effective. This is perhaps one of the reasons why the Banque Des Etats De L’Afrique Centrale (BEAC) is unable to sterilise the excess liquidity of the banking sector in Cameroon. The long run pass-through of 0.72 and 0.71 for the entire sample, and the average long run pass-through for the rolling window of 0.78 and 0.76 for the lending and deposit rates, suggest that monetary policy is highly effective in Nigeria compared to Cameroon. The empirical evidence confirmed asymmetric adjustment in six rolling windows in the lending rate in Nigeria. Three rolling windows indicated that the direction of rigidity is downward, supporting Scholnick’s (1996) collusive pricing arrangement between banks, and the other three suggested that the lending rate is rigid in the upward direction, corroborating Scholnick’s (1996) customer reaction hypothesis. The deposit rate in Cameroon was also found to adjust asymmetrically and the direction of rigidity is downward, supporting Hannan and Berger’s (1991) customer reaction hypothesis. The investigation of impulse transmission between the two countries revealed that only the policy rate in Nigeria exerts some influence on the deposit rate in Cameroon. Policy recommendations are also discussed.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
- Authors: Tita, Anthanasius Fomum
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Interest rates -- Cameroon Interest rates -- Nigeria Interest rates -- Effect of inflation on -- Cameroon Interest rates -- Effect of inflation on -- Nigeria Interest rates -- Econometric models Cointegration Monetary policy -- Cameroon Monetary policy -- Nigeria Banque des états de l'Afrique centrale Banks and banking -- Cameroon Banks and banking -- Nigeria
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1005 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002740
- Description: One of the most important aspects of monetary policy is an understanding of the transmission process: the mechanism through which the monetary policy actions of the Central Bank impact on aggregate demand and prices by influencing the investment and consumption decisions of households and firms. Thus, commercial banks are regarded as conveyers of monetary policy shocks and are expected to adjust retail interest rates in response to policy shocks one-to-one. In practice, commercial banks adjust their retail rates in response to changes in monetary policy with a lag of several months and this delay is often viewed as an impediment on the ability of the Central Bank to steer the economy. Several reasons, such as credit rationing and adverse selection, switching costs, risk sharing, consumer irrationality, structure of the financial system, menu costs and asymmetric information are some of the causes advanced for commercial banks retail rates being sticky. In spite of the important role of pass-through analysis in the monetary policy transmission process, it has received very little attention in Sub-Saharan Africa, especially in Cameroon and Nigeria, which have implemented a series of reforms. To this end, this study gives a comparative analysis of interest rate pass-through in Nigeria and Cameroon using retail rates (lending and deposit) and a discount rate (policy rate) from January 1990 to December 2010 for Nigeria and from January 1990 to June 2008 for Cameroon. The study examines the magnitude and speed of retail rate adjustments to changes in the Central Bank policy rate as well as examining the possibility of symmetric and asymmetric pass-through in both countries. In addition, the study also investigates whether there is pass-through of monetary policy from one country to the other. The empirical analysis employs four different types of co-integration techniques to test the presence of a long run co-integrating relationship between retail and the policy rates in order to ensure that the relationship detected is robust. Three sets of analyses are carried out in the study. Following Cottarelli and Kourelis (1994), the study employed a co-integration technique, firstly, to analyse pass-through for the entire sample, secondly, to analyse symmetric and asymmetric pass-through using a ten year rolling window analysis in an error correction framework. Finally, the policy rates were swapped around to investigate if there are transmissions of impulses from one country to the other. Overall, evidence from the entire sample and rolling window analysis suggests that monetary policy in Cameroon is less effective. This is perhaps one of the reasons why the Banque Des Etats De L’Afrique Centrale (BEAC) is unable to sterilise the excess liquidity of the banking sector in Cameroon. The long run pass-through of 0.72 and 0.71 for the entire sample, and the average long run pass-through for the rolling window of 0.78 and 0.76 for the lending and deposit rates, suggest that monetary policy is highly effective in Nigeria compared to Cameroon. The empirical evidence confirmed asymmetric adjustment in six rolling windows in the lending rate in Nigeria. Three rolling windows indicated that the direction of rigidity is downward, supporting Scholnick’s (1996) collusive pricing arrangement between banks, and the other three suggested that the lending rate is rigid in the upward direction, corroborating Scholnick’s (1996) customer reaction hypothesis. The deposit rate in Cameroon was also found to adjust asymmetrically and the direction of rigidity is downward, supporting Hannan and Berger’s (1991) customer reaction hypothesis. The investigation of impulse transmission between the two countries revealed that only the policy rate in Nigeria exerts some influence on the deposit rate in Cameroon. Policy recommendations are also discussed.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
Macroeconomic determinants of stock market behaviour in South Africa
- Authors: Junkin, Kyle
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa Macroeconomics Risk management -- South Africa Stock exchanges -- South Africa Interest rates -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1016 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002751
- Description: This study investigates whether stock prices in South Africa are influenced by macroeconomic variables, and furthermore, the effects of financial crises on stock prices. The relationship between stock prices and the macroeconomy is a particularly important issue for investors, since a thorough understanding of such a relationship is likely to yield profitable or risk mitigating opportunities. Using monthly data for the period 1995 to 2010 the study focused at a macro level using the FTSE/JSE All Share Index, and at a micro level using sector indices. These included the construction and materials, financial, food producers’, general retailers, industrial, mining and pharmaceuticals indices. The Johansen and Juselius (1990) multivariate cointegration approach was employed, along with impulse response and variance decomposition tests to address the issue. The results showed that macroeconomic variables do have a significant influence on stock prices in South Africa. Also, the influences of these variables were found to have an inconsistent effect across the sectors under investigation. For example, inflation was found to negatively influence the All Share Index, but impacted the industrial index positively. These inconsistent influences on the various sectors were seen to have important diversification implications for investors. The impact of past financial crises proved to be significant on certain indices, however, indices such as that of the pharmaceuticals sector was found to be largely unaffected by such crises. The findings of the study were discussed through an investor’s perspective, and recommendations on investment decisions were given. The limitations of the study were such that certain results may have been influenced by a mis-specification of variables, particularly the Treasury bill rate.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
- Authors: Junkin, Kyle
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa Macroeconomics Risk management -- South Africa Stock exchanges -- South Africa Interest rates -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1016 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002751
- Description: This study investigates whether stock prices in South Africa are influenced by macroeconomic variables, and furthermore, the effects of financial crises on stock prices. The relationship between stock prices and the macroeconomy is a particularly important issue for investors, since a thorough understanding of such a relationship is likely to yield profitable or risk mitigating opportunities. Using monthly data for the period 1995 to 2010 the study focused at a macro level using the FTSE/JSE All Share Index, and at a micro level using sector indices. These included the construction and materials, financial, food producers’, general retailers, industrial, mining and pharmaceuticals indices. The Johansen and Juselius (1990) multivariate cointegration approach was employed, along with impulse response and variance decomposition tests to address the issue. The results showed that macroeconomic variables do have a significant influence on stock prices in South Africa. Also, the influences of these variables were found to have an inconsistent effect across the sectors under investigation. For example, inflation was found to negatively influence the All Share Index, but impacted the industrial index positively. These inconsistent influences on the various sectors were seen to have important diversification implications for investors. The impact of past financial crises proved to be significant on certain indices, however, indices such as that of the pharmaceuticals sector was found to be largely unaffected by such crises. The findings of the study were discussed through an investor’s perspective, and recommendations on investment decisions were given. The limitations of the study were such that certain results may have been influenced by a mis-specification of variables, particularly the Treasury bill rate.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
Optimistic science: the effectiveness of economic methodology in achieving objectivity
- Authors: Holl, Ryan
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Economics -- Methodology , Social epistemology , Knowledge, Theory of -- Science , Objectivity -- Science , Science -- Methodology , Optimism
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1105 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1013393
- Description: This thesis examines the extent to which optimism has a bearing on objectivity in scientific inquiry. It is not, however, a psychological level examination into objectivity. Rather, the discussion focuses on collective attitudes, whether in the form of science or a more general public opinion. In essence, sources of optimism at the fundamental level of scientific inquiry are articulated with a careful attempt to differentiate between attitudes about the subject (methodology) and the object of study. The antithetical thread of optimism versus pessimism is teased out with the use of a joint case study of liberalism and Stalinism. The idea of antithesis, however, is contrasted by the fact that, although mirror image ideologies, these collective attitudes share a common faith in progress (albeit through different social mechanisms). This faith in progress provides the basis for the crux of the thesis as it moves to discuss scientific methodology. There is general agreement on what good science should look like and the possibility of progressive science can be articulated. However, it is also possible to highlight the conditions for degenerative science and to further link this to a degenerative social totality in which democracy and social progress are undermined. Economics is used as a case study and it is argued that dogmatic notions on progress have proved to be a major stumbling block to objectivity in the discipline. Furthermore, the implications on the real world are serious.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
- Authors: Holl, Ryan
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Economics -- Methodology , Social epistemology , Knowledge, Theory of -- Science , Objectivity -- Science , Science -- Methodology , Optimism
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1105 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1013393
- Description: This thesis examines the extent to which optimism has a bearing on objectivity in scientific inquiry. It is not, however, a psychological level examination into objectivity. Rather, the discussion focuses on collective attitudes, whether in the form of science or a more general public opinion. In essence, sources of optimism at the fundamental level of scientific inquiry are articulated with a careful attempt to differentiate between attitudes about the subject (methodology) and the object of study. The antithetical thread of optimism versus pessimism is teased out with the use of a joint case study of liberalism and Stalinism. The idea of antithesis, however, is contrasted by the fact that, although mirror image ideologies, these collective attitudes share a common faith in progress (albeit through different social mechanisms). This faith in progress provides the basis for the crux of the thesis as it moves to discuss scientific methodology. There is general agreement on what good science should look like and the possibility of progressive science can be articulated. However, it is also possible to highlight the conditions for degenerative science and to further link this to a degenerative social totality in which democracy and social progress are undermined. Economics is used as a case study and it is argued that dogmatic notions on progress have proved to be a major stumbling block to objectivity in the discipline. Furthermore, the implications on the real world are serious.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
Performance of defensive shares on the JSE during financial crisis: evidence from analysis of returns and volatility
- Authors: Arguile, Wayne Peter
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Industries -- South Africa -- Finance Industries -- South Africa -- Statistics Johannesburg Stock Exchange Rational expectations (Economic theory)
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1001 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002736
- Description: This study analyses whether historically defensive sectors on the JSE have – with respect to the market – proven to be defensive during the recent global financial crisis. By withstanding the shocks of market volatility, defensive industries (such as pharmaceuticals and consumer staples) are renowned for their consistent performance throughout the business cycle. Using daily data for the period 2000–2009, the study compares the descriptive statistics of sector returns before and during the crisis. The volatility of each sector relative to the market index is calculated using the CAPM beta and a simplified volatility ratio. The same comparison is extended to the conditional volatilities of each of the sectors, which is estimated using the GARCH model and two of its extensions: the EGARCH and GJR GARCH models. While no sector experienced a positive mean return during the financial crisis, Healthcare, Consumer Goods, Consumer Services and Industrials all proved less volatile than the market. Surprisingly, Telecommunications proved more volatile than the market and experienced leverage effects during the financial crisis. Since the timing of a recession is difficult to predict, defensive securities were found to be a useful investment tool for protection against adverse movements in the stock market.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
- Authors: Arguile, Wayne Peter
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Industries -- South Africa -- Finance Industries -- South Africa -- Statistics Johannesburg Stock Exchange Rational expectations (Economic theory)
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1001 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002736
- Description: This study analyses whether historically defensive sectors on the JSE have – with respect to the market – proven to be defensive during the recent global financial crisis. By withstanding the shocks of market volatility, defensive industries (such as pharmaceuticals and consumer staples) are renowned for their consistent performance throughout the business cycle. Using daily data for the period 2000–2009, the study compares the descriptive statistics of sector returns before and during the crisis. The volatility of each sector relative to the market index is calculated using the CAPM beta and a simplified volatility ratio. The same comparison is extended to the conditional volatilities of each of the sectors, which is estimated using the GARCH model and two of its extensions: the EGARCH and GJR GARCH models. While no sector experienced a positive mean return during the financial crisis, Healthcare, Consumer Goods, Consumer Services and Industrials all proved less volatile than the market. Surprisingly, Telecommunications proved more volatile than the market and experienced leverage effects during the financial crisis. Since the timing of a recession is difficult to predict, defensive securities were found to be a useful investment tool for protection against adverse movements in the stock market.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
The economics of converting a sheep farm into a springbuck (Antidorcas marsupialis) ranch in Graaff-Reinet: a simulation analysis
- Authors: Dlamini, Thula Sizwe
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Livestock projects -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Livestock productivity -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Livestock -- Economic aspects -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Sheep -- Breeding -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Springbok -- Breeding -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: vital:1003 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002738
- Description: In Graaff-Reinet, domestic livestock farming and springbuck ranching are similar in that they both rely on the rangeland for their sustainability. However, as a consequence of repeated monotonous domestic livestock farming, resulting in compromised biological productivity and diversity, the rangelands have disintegrated. This, unfortunately, has placed the future sustainability of these rangelands and the livelihoods of the local people in an indeterminate state. In recent years, there has been an increasing interest in springbuck ranching for meat production as an alternative to domestic livestock farming in the area following (a) fears of worsening environmental challenges; (b) declining profitability in commercial domestic livestock farming and; (c) growing calls for the sustainable use of these rangelands for the benefit of future generations. The springbuck has emerged as a credible alternative to utilising the rangelands - as opposed to sheep - because of its promise to addressing the above challenges. This is in an attempt to tap into the multitude of benefits that the springbuck possesses (by virtue of being part of the natural capital of the area) that have a potential towards restoring ecological integrity by extenuating some of the detrimental effects of sheep farming on the rangelands and presenting opportunities for diversifying incomes. Yet, despite the general increase in interest, a resistance towards the uptake of springbuck ranching for meat production exists. The main contention is that springbuck meat production cannot out-perform the economic returns of wool sheep farming. This study attempts to address these concerns by investigating the profitability and economic sustainability of converting a sheep farm into a springbuck ranch in Graaff-Reinet. The study uses stochastic simulation to estimate the probability distribution of some key output variables, namely: net cash income, ending cash balance, real net worth and the net present value (NPV) in evaluating the profitability of converting a 5 000ha sheep-dominated farm into a springbuck-dominated ranch under three alternative scenarios. The use of stochastic simulation allows for the incorporation of downside risk associated with the production and marketing of wool, mutton and springbuck meat. The study uses stochastic prices and yields to calculate net returns variability. Incorporating scenario analysis helped to evaluate how alternative wool sheep-dominated and springbuck-dominated combinations would perform based on the probable outcomes of different assumptions in the various scenarios. By applying stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) criterion to the simulated NPVs, this study compares the profitability of alternative scenarios based on various risk aversion coefficients. The study finds that converting a 5 000ha wool sheep dominated farm into a springbuck dominated ranch could potentially be a more profitable investment than wool sheep farming over a 15 year planning horizon, in Graaff-Reinet. The SERF results indicate that for all scenarios tested, the best strategy of converting a wool sheep dominated farm into a springbuck ranch would be one which comprise a combination of 70% springbuck, 20% mutton and 10% wool production as the likely profitable enterprise mix. Using economic sustainability analysis, the study reveals that because of low costs in springbuck ranching, springbuck meat production enterprises are most likely to be more financially sustainable than wool sheep-dominated enterprises. This suggests that rangeland owners may be better off converting their wool sheep-dominated farms into springbuck-dominated ranches. Thus, as the call for more environmentally benign rangeland utilising economic-ecological systems intensifies, rangeland owners in the Eastern Cape Karoo have a practicable option. At the very least, there exists an option to broaden their incomes whilst promoting ecological restoration with springbuck meat production.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
- Authors: Dlamini, Thula Sizwe
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Livestock projects -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Livestock productivity -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Livestock -- Economic aspects -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Sheep -- Breeding -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Springbok -- Breeding -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: vital:1003 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002738
- Description: In Graaff-Reinet, domestic livestock farming and springbuck ranching are similar in that they both rely on the rangeland for their sustainability. However, as a consequence of repeated monotonous domestic livestock farming, resulting in compromised biological productivity and diversity, the rangelands have disintegrated. This, unfortunately, has placed the future sustainability of these rangelands and the livelihoods of the local people in an indeterminate state. In recent years, there has been an increasing interest in springbuck ranching for meat production as an alternative to domestic livestock farming in the area following (a) fears of worsening environmental challenges; (b) declining profitability in commercial domestic livestock farming and; (c) growing calls for the sustainable use of these rangelands for the benefit of future generations. The springbuck has emerged as a credible alternative to utilising the rangelands - as opposed to sheep - because of its promise to addressing the above challenges. This is in an attempt to tap into the multitude of benefits that the springbuck possesses (by virtue of being part of the natural capital of the area) that have a potential towards restoring ecological integrity by extenuating some of the detrimental effects of sheep farming on the rangelands and presenting opportunities for diversifying incomes. Yet, despite the general increase in interest, a resistance towards the uptake of springbuck ranching for meat production exists. The main contention is that springbuck meat production cannot out-perform the economic returns of wool sheep farming. This study attempts to address these concerns by investigating the profitability and economic sustainability of converting a sheep farm into a springbuck ranch in Graaff-Reinet. The study uses stochastic simulation to estimate the probability distribution of some key output variables, namely: net cash income, ending cash balance, real net worth and the net present value (NPV) in evaluating the profitability of converting a 5 000ha sheep-dominated farm into a springbuck-dominated ranch under three alternative scenarios. The use of stochastic simulation allows for the incorporation of downside risk associated with the production and marketing of wool, mutton and springbuck meat. The study uses stochastic prices and yields to calculate net returns variability. Incorporating scenario analysis helped to evaluate how alternative wool sheep-dominated and springbuck-dominated combinations would perform based on the probable outcomes of different assumptions in the various scenarios. By applying stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) criterion to the simulated NPVs, this study compares the profitability of alternative scenarios based on various risk aversion coefficients. The study finds that converting a 5 000ha wool sheep dominated farm into a springbuck dominated ranch could potentially be a more profitable investment than wool sheep farming over a 15 year planning horizon, in Graaff-Reinet. The SERF results indicate that for all scenarios tested, the best strategy of converting a wool sheep dominated farm into a springbuck ranch would be one which comprise a combination of 70% springbuck, 20% mutton and 10% wool production as the likely profitable enterprise mix. Using economic sustainability analysis, the study reveals that because of low costs in springbuck ranching, springbuck meat production enterprises are most likely to be more financially sustainable than wool sheep-dominated enterprises. This suggests that rangeland owners may be better off converting their wool sheep-dominated farms into springbuck-dominated ranches. Thus, as the call for more environmentally benign rangeland utilising economic-ecological systems intensifies, rangeland owners in the Eastern Cape Karoo have a practicable option. At the very least, there exists an option to broaden their incomes whilst promoting ecological restoration with springbuck meat production.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
The feasibility of monetary integration within the SADC region
- Authors: Nindi, Angelique Gugulethu
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Southern African Development Community Monetary policy -- Africa, Southern Macroeconomics Africa, Southern -- Economic policy
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: vital:1021 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002756
- Description: The Southern African Development Community (SADC) aims to have a regional central bank by 2016 and a common currency by 2018. The member states are at the early stages of the process of regional economic integration, having launched a free trade area in 2008. Monetary integration is an advanced stage of regional economic integration that requires progressive changes in the participating countries. The purpose of this study is to determine the feasibility of monetary integration within the SADC countries and hence, provide policy recommendations to guide the integration process. To accomplish this, the study analyses the extent to which the member states meet the criteria for an optimum currency area (OCA) as well as the degree to which their economies are converging. The study finds that the main macroeconomic objectives of SADC countries differ due to a difference in the relative importance of monetary policy instruments in member states, which influences each country’s commitment towards achieving the macroeconomic convergence targets and harmonising policies. A more appropriate approach to macroeconomic convergence would be to allow for variable speed, geometry and depth in each country as premature adherence to convergence targets could prevent a harmonisation of the economies in the future and possibly destabilise the union. In addition, the study investigates the importance and similarities of the monetary aggregate channel, the interest rate channel, the exchange rate channel and the credit channel in the transmission of monetary policy using VAR analysis. This is important when considering monetary integration because differences in transmission mechanisms can result in asymmetric behaviour between member states, which in turn will prevent harmonisation of their economies. The results of the analysis suggest that SADC member states display asymmetries in their responses to monetary policy shocks as well as the relative importance of transmission mechanisms. In addition, the results suggest that national monetary policy is generally inefficient in determining economic performance in the member states. Furthermore, the study finds that the failure to meet the OCA criteria implies that the SADC member states will respond asymmetrically to shocks within a monetary union. With no effective alternative adjustment mechanisms in place, the effects of the shocks will endure in union members and possibly widen existing cyclical variation. Hence, monetary integration would not result in harmonisation of the economies of member states. It is therefore, concluded that the SADC countries were not suitable for monetary integration at present.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
- Authors: Nindi, Angelique Gugulethu
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Southern African Development Community Monetary policy -- Africa, Southern Macroeconomics Africa, Southern -- Economic policy
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: vital:1021 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002756
- Description: The Southern African Development Community (SADC) aims to have a regional central bank by 2016 and a common currency by 2018. The member states are at the early stages of the process of regional economic integration, having launched a free trade area in 2008. Monetary integration is an advanced stage of regional economic integration that requires progressive changes in the participating countries. The purpose of this study is to determine the feasibility of monetary integration within the SADC countries and hence, provide policy recommendations to guide the integration process. To accomplish this, the study analyses the extent to which the member states meet the criteria for an optimum currency area (OCA) as well as the degree to which their economies are converging. The study finds that the main macroeconomic objectives of SADC countries differ due to a difference in the relative importance of monetary policy instruments in member states, which influences each country’s commitment towards achieving the macroeconomic convergence targets and harmonising policies. A more appropriate approach to macroeconomic convergence would be to allow for variable speed, geometry and depth in each country as premature adherence to convergence targets could prevent a harmonisation of the economies in the future and possibly destabilise the union. In addition, the study investigates the importance and similarities of the monetary aggregate channel, the interest rate channel, the exchange rate channel and the credit channel in the transmission of monetary policy using VAR analysis. This is important when considering monetary integration because differences in transmission mechanisms can result in asymmetric behaviour between member states, which in turn will prevent harmonisation of their economies. The results of the analysis suggest that SADC member states display asymmetries in their responses to monetary policy shocks as well as the relative importance of transmission mechanisms. In addition, the results suggest that national monetary policy is generally inefficient in determining economic performance in the member states. Furthermore, the study finds that the failure to meet the OCA criteria implies that the SADC member states will respond asymmetrically to shocks within a monetary union. With no effective alternative adjustment mechanisms in place, the effects of the shocks will endure in union members and possibly widen existing cyclical variation. Hence, monetary integration would not result in harmonisation of the economies of member states. It is therefore, concluded that the SADC countries were not suitable for monetary integration at present.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
The implications of rural-urban migration on employment and household income with particular reference to Lesotho
- Authors: Damane, Moeti
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Rural-urban migration -- Employment -- Lesotho Informal sector (Economics) -- Lesotho Lesotho -- Economic conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1002 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002737
- Description: The research investigates the impact of internal rural - urban migration III Lesotho on household income and employment. Using data gathered from the 2002/03 household survey, the 2006 nationwide census and a questionnaire on rural - urban migration in Lesotho administered to 500 respondents in Maseru and Leribe, we estimate a logit model of the probability of employment in Lesotho in 2008 given a set of independent variables. The independent variables are respondent's work experience; years of education completed; employment status in 2004; employment status in 2008; gender; job skill level; place of residence in 2004 and a categorical variable that measures whether or not the respondent is a rural - urban migrant. The results suggest that migration and work experience have no significant impact on an individual's likelihood of being employed in the country's formal sector. Also, it was found that the higher the level of education an individual has, the less likely are their chances of employment in the country's formal sector because of the lack of formal jobs in the urban areas. Over 50% of Lesotho's workforce employed in the urban areas was discovered to work in the informal sector. The study concludes that there is a lack of jobs in Lesotho's urban formal sector that results in a thriving informal sector. The advantages of informal sector jobs to the rural - urban migrant include an increase in their standard of living as well as that of their family members left behind in the rural areas but the disadvantages include low levels of investor confidence that lead to a decrease in overall economic development and growth in the country.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
- Authors: Damane, Moeti
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Rural-urban migration -- Employment -- Lesotho Informal sector (Economics) -- Lesotho Lesotho -- Economic conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1002 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002737
- Description: The research investigates the impact of internal rural - urban migration III Lesotho on household income and employment. Using data gathered from the 2002/03 household survey, the 2006 nationwide census and a questionnaire on rural - urban migration in Lesotho administered to 500 respondents in Maseru and Leribe, we estimate a logit model of the probability of employment in Lesotho in 2008 given a set of independent variables. The independent variables are respondent's work experience; years of education completed; employment status in 2004; employment status in 2008; gender; job skill level; place of residence in 2004 and a categorical variable that measures whether or not the respondent is a rural - urban migrant. The results suggest that migration and work experience have no significant impact on an individual's likelihood of being employed in the country's formal sector. Also, it was found that the higher the level of education an individual has, the less likely are their chances of employment in the country's formal sector because of the lack of formal jobs in the urban areas. Over 50% of Lesotho's workforce employed in the urban areas was discovered to work in the informal sector. The study concludes that there is a lack of jobs in Lesotho's urban formal sector that results in a thriving informal sector. The advantages of informal sector jobs to the rural - urban migrant include an increase in their standard of living as well as that of their family members left behind in the rural areas but the disadvantages include low levels of investor confidence that lead to a decrease in overall economic development and growth in the country.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
The role of culture in enabling or constraining the use of technology in higher education teaching and learning: the Commerce Curriculum Project
- Mostert, Markus, Snowball, Jeanette D, Boughey, Chrissie
- Authors: Mostert, Markus , Snowball, Jeanette D , Boughey, Chrissie
- Date: 2012
- Language: English
- Type: conference paper , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/61073 , vital:27945
- Description: This paper draws on a project located in one faculty at a South African university which aimed to use Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) to enhance teaching and learning. More specifically, the paper uses Archer’s (1995, 1996, 2000, 1998) ‘analytical dualism’ and ‘morphogenesis’ to explore the way individuals involved in the project were able to exercise agency in departments which were relatively hostile to the goals they were aiming to pursue despite the wider cultural domain encompassing many ideas which construct the use of ICTs as significant in promoting student learning. The paper thus contributes to the culture/agency subtheme of the HECU6 conference. The paper begins by providing some background to the project before moving on to an exploration of the way Archer’s theoretical work was used to analyse data collected by project leaders.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
- Authors: Mostert, Markus , Snowball, Jeanette D , Boughey, Chrissie
- Date: 2012
- Language: English
- Type: conference paper , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/61073 , vital:27945
- Description: This paper draws on a project located in one faculty at a South African university which aimed to use Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) to enhance teaching and learning. More specifically, the paper uses Archer’s (1995, 1996, 2000, 1998) ‘analytical dualism’ and ‘morphogenesis’ to explore the way individuals involved in the project were able to exercise agency in departments which were relatively hostile to the goals they were aiming to pursue despite the wider cultural domain encompassing many ideas which construct the use of ICTs as significant in promoting student learning. The paper thus contributes to the culture/agency subtheme of the HECU6 conference. The paper begins by providing some background to the project before moving on to an exploration of the way Archer’s theoretical work was used to analyse data collected by project leaders.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
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