A study of the Consumption Capital Asset Pricing Model's appilcability across four countries
- Spurway, Kayleigh Fay Nanette
- Authors: Spurway, Kayleigh Fay Nanette
- Date: 2014
- Subjects: Econometric models , Capital assets pricing model , Investments , Econometric models -- Germany , Econometric models -- South Africa , Econometric models -- Great Britain , Econometric models -- United States
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1095 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1013016
- Description: Historically, the Consumption Capital Asset Pricing Method (C-CAPM) has performed poorly in that estimated parameters are implausible, model restrictions are often rejected and inferences appear to be very sensitive to the choice of economic agents' preferences. In this study, we estimate and test the C-CAPM with Constant Relative Risk Aversion (CRRA) using time series data from Germany, South Africa, Britain and America during relatively short time periods with the latest available data sets. Hansen's GMM approach is applied to estimate the parameters arising from this model. In general, estimated parameters fall outside the bounds specified by Lund & Engsted (1996) and Cuthbertson & Nitzsche (2004), even though the models are not rejected by the J-test and are associated with relatively small minimum distances.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2014
- Authors: Spurway, Kayleigh Fay Nanette
- Date: 2014
- Subjects: Econometric models , Capital assets pricing model , Investments , Econometric models -- Germany , Econometric models -- South Africa , Econometric models -- Great Britain , Econometric models -- United States
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1095 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1013016
- Description: Historically, the Consumption Capital Asset Pricing Method (C-CAPM) has performed poorly in that estimated parameters are implausible, model restrictions are often rejected and inferences appear to be very sensitive to the choice of economic agents' preferences. In this study, we estimate and test the C-CAPM with Constant Relative Risk Aversion (CRRA) using time series data from Germany, South Africa, Britain and America during relatively short time periods with the latest available data sets. Hansen's GMM approach is applied to estimate the parameters arising from this model. In general, estimated parameters fall outside the bounds specified by Lund & Engsted (1996) and Cuthbertson & Nitzsche (2004), even though the models are not rejected by the J-test and are associated with relatively small minimum distances.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2014
An analysis of alternative objective measures of economic performance and social development.
- Authors: Hlanti, Msawenkosi Madoda
- Date: 2014
- Subjects: National income -- Economic aspects -- South Africa -- Evaluation , Economic development -- Social aspects -- South Africa -- Evaluation , Gross domestic product -- South Africa , Sustainable development -- South Africa , Social planning -- South Africa , Economic policy , South Africa -- Social conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1099 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1013144
- Description: The measurement of economic performance and social development has become increasingly important as societies have evolved and become more complex. At present nations do not only seek to improve economic performance but are also compelled to improve social development through improvements in socially and environmentally sustainable initiatives. Traditional measures such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) which is derived from United Nations’ System of National Accounts (SNA) have been criticised given the inability to adequately account for these social and environmental aspects of social development. Given these perceived deficiencies in the conventional measures, several alternative objective measures have been proposed in an attempt to address these shortcomings. Therefore the primary aim of this study is to analyse, via a literature survey, these alternative objective measures of economic performance and social development. The alternative measures that constitute the survey are the Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare (ISEW), the Genuine Savings (GS), and the United Nations’ Human Development Index (HDI). Upon the completion of the literature survey, sustainable development theory is used to evaluate the extent to which the National Accounts and the alternative objective measures are consistent with Hicksian and Fisherian definitions of income and capital, which embody the concepts of sustainability and sustainable development. The evaluation reveals that the National Accounts neither conform to the Hicksian nor the Fisherian definitions of income, thus could not be viewed as a measure of sustainable income. It is found that the ISEW is consistent with the Fisherian definition of income and is also a partial indicator of sustainable development. The evaluation of the GS measure reveals that it is consistent with the Hicksian definition but not the Fisherian definition. In terms of overall sustainability, it is argued that GS is a partial measure of weak sustainability. The HDI is similar to the National Accounts, in that it is neither consistent with the Hicksian nor the Fisherian definitions of income and is also not a measure of sustainability. In summary, the study demonstrates that despite GDP's shortcomings as a measure of economic performance and social development, currently, there is no alternative approach which simultaneously addresses every flaw in GDP. However, all the alternatives yield a much better approximation of social development than GDP.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2014
- Authors: Hlanti, Msawenkosi Madoda
- Date: 2014
- Subjects: National income -- Economic aspects -- South Africa -- Evaluation , Economic development -- Social aspects -- South Africa -- Evaluation , Gross domestic product -- South Africa , Sustainable development -- South Africa , Social planning -- South Africa , Economic policy , South Africa -- Social conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1099 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1013144
- Description: The measurement of economic performance and social development has become increasingly important as societies have evolved and become more complex. At present nations do not only seek to improve economic performance but are also compelled to improve social development through improvements in socially and environmentally sustainable initiatives. Traditional measures such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) which is derived from United Nations’ System of National Accounts (SNA) have been criticised given the inability to adequately account for these social and environmental aspects of social development. Given these perceived deficiencies in the conventional measures, several alternative objective measures have been proposed in an attempt to address these shortcomings. Therefore the primary aim of this study is to analyse, via a literature survey, these alternative objective measures of economic performance and social development. The alternative measures that constitute the survey are the Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare (ISEW), the Genuine Savings (GS), and the United Nations’ Human Development Index (HDI). Upon the completion of the literature survey, sustainable development theory is used to evaluate the extent to which the National Accounts and the alternative objective measures are consistent with Hicksian and Fisherian definitions of income and capital, which embody the concepts of sustainability and sustainable development. The evaluation reveals that the National Accounts neither conform to the Hicksian nor the Fisherian definitions of income, thus could not be viewed as a measure of sustainable income. It is found that the ISEW is consistent with the Fisherian definition of income and is also a partial indicator of sustainable development. The evaluation of the GS measure reveals that it is consistent with the Hicksian definition but not the Fisherian definition. In terms of overall sustainability, it is argued that GS is a partial measure of weak sustainability. The HDI is similar to the National Accounts, in that it is neither consistent with the Hicksian nor the Fisherian definitions of income and is also not a measure of sustainability. In summary, the study demonstrates that despite GDP's shortcomings as a measure of economic performance and social development, currently, there is no alternative approach which simultaneously addresses every flaw in GDP. However, all the alternatives yield a much better approximation of social development than GDP.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2014
Considerations for implementating market based mechanisms in combating climate change in South Africa
- Authors: Marais, Frans
- Date: 2014
- Subjects: Climatic changes -- Economic aspects -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1093 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1012952
- Description: Since the first period of the Kyoto Protocol, there has been a growing concern that the burden of reducing greenhouse gas emissions should not only be borne by developed countries, but developing countries as well. South Africa, as the 18th highest emitter of greenhouse gases in the world and highest in Africa, has a significant responsibility to reduce its emissions levels. The South African government is currently in the process of implementing a carbon tax for its short term response to climate change and considering the implementation of a carbon market as a medium to long term response to climate change. Both of these market based mechanisms are widely deemed effective in the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions by economists, however are also known to have negative social and economic implications upon an economy. This study identifies these implications and attempts to provide considerations on how to alleviate the implications through the most appropriate process of revenue recycling. The negative effects of Implementing a carbon tax or carbon market could be severe as and not limited to: a significant decline in GDP, a reduction in the standard of living for certain households, a fall in a country's exports and even an increase in poverty. South Africa's environmental and development policies place a strict precedence on the protection of the poor and the prevention of economic hardship induced by such policies. This places significant importance on the prevention of these externalities from occurring. A primary means of doing so is through the process of revenue recycling, however, certain channels of revenue recycling are by no means helpful, hence the most appropriate channel needs to be identified. The study carried out a multiple case study analysis on Ireland, Mexico, New Zealand and Norway, to determine what effects a carbon tax had on their economies and how these effects were mitigated through carbon tax revenue recycling. An additional analysis of the EU ETS was carried out to determine how the EU ETS was implemented and the controversies and concerns that arose during its implementation. The findings of this analysis were then compared to a number of South African economist’s case studies, and the most appropriate method of revenue recycling identified and possible solutions to the EU ETS controversies found. The study concludes that a food subsidy has the potential to provide positive effects on welfare employment and GDP; therefore could be considered to be the most appropriate method of revenue recycling. However, these effects are limited to be experienced only at low levels of a carbon tax, hence, short term in nature. The study therefore provides a further consideration that the use of multiple channels for revenue recycling needs to be explored that could provide stable longer term effects. In addition, in the implementation of a carbon market, the study concludes that government should consider using an auction approach in the initial allocation phase of an ETS and the use of a centralized registry for monitoring and controlling of information and transactions.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2014
- Authors: Marais, Frans
- Date: 2014
- Subjects: Climatic changes -- Economic aspects -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1093 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1012952
- Description: Since the first period of the Kyoto Protocol, there has been a growing concern that the burden of reducing greenhouse gas emissions should not only be borne by developed countries, but developing countries as well. South Africa, as the 18th highest emitter of greenhouse gases in the world and highest in Africa, has a significant responsibility to reduce its emissions levels. The South African government is currently in the process of implementing a carbon tax for its short term response to climate change and considering the implementation of a carbon market as a medium to long term response to climate change. Both of these market based mechanisms are widely deemed effective in the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions by economists, however are also known to have negative social and economic implications upon an economy. This study identifies these implications and attempts to provide considerations on how to alleviate the implications through the most appropriate process of revenue recycling. The negative effects of Implementing a carbon tax or carbon market could be severe as and not limited to: a significant decline in GDP, a reduction in the standard of living for certain households, a fall in a country's exports and even an increase in poverty. South Africa's environmental and development policies place a strict precedence on the protection of the poor and the prevention of economic hardship induced by such policies. This places significant importance on the prevention of these externalities from occurring. A primary means of doing so is through the process of revenue recycling, however, certain channels of revenue recycling are by no means helpful, hence the most appropriate channel needs to be identified. The study carried out a multiple case study analysis on Ireland, Mexico, New Zealand and Norway, to determine what effects a carbon tax had on their economies and how these effects were mitigated through carbon tax revenue recycling. An additional analysis of the EU ETS was carried out to determine how the EU ETS was implemented and the controversies and concerns that arose during its implementation. The findings of this analysis were then compared to a number of South African economist’s case studies, and the most appropriate method of revenue recycling identified and possible solutions to the EU ETS controversies found. The study concludes that a food subsidy has the potential to provide positive effects on welfare employment and GDP; therefore could be considered to be the most appropriate method of revenue recycling. However, these effects are limited to be experienced only at low levels of a carbon tax, hence, short term in nature. The study therefore provides a further consideration that the use of multiple channels for revenue recycling needs to be explored that could provide stable longer term effects. In addition, in the implementation of a carbon market, the study concludes that government should consider using an auction approach in the initial allocation phase of an ETS and the use of a centralized registry for monitoring and controlling of information and transactions.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2014
Exports and economic growth in South Africa
- Authors: Feddersen, Maura
- Date: 2014
- Subjects: Exports -- South Africa Economic development -- South Africa Unemployment -- South Africa Poverty -- South Africa Income distribution -- South Africa Investments -- South Africa Saving and investment -- South Africa South Africa -- Economic conditions South Africa -- Social conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1087 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1012029
- Description: Various studies conclude that accelerated economic growth and development are necessary in South Africa to make a significant contribution towards reducing high levels of unemployment, inequality and poverty. Moreover, in theories of economic growth the export sector is frequently accorded a special role in encouraging faster economic growth, which is often supported by empirical evidence. Nonetheless, a question that remains unresolved is whether higher export growth leads to higher economic growth in South Africa and what particular role exports may play within the overall economic growth process of the country. This study applies Johansen’s cointegration procedure, impulse response functions, variance decomposition analysis and Granger causality tests to shed light on the channels through which export growth may impact South Africa’s economic growth rate. Quarterly time series data ranging from 1975q1 to 2012q4 is employed in the study’s empirical tests. The empirical results lend support to the idea that the role of exports in the economic growth process fundamentally lies in their ability to encourage investment and capital formation. While export growth supports higher economic growth in the short-run, it does not have the same effect in the long-run. Nonetheless, with export growth supporting faster capital formation in South Africa, and capital formation, in turn, significantly increasing economic growth in the long-run, the impetus to growth stemming from exports has been found to lie in the channel to capital formation. On the basis of the empirical results, not only are exports a critical requirement of higher investment, but they are also anticipated to play a prominent role in lifting the balance of payments constraint that would make investment-led growth possible in the first place. Overall, a strategy of export-led growth that does not explicitly emphasise the export-capital-growth connection is likely to fall short of reflecting the dynamics contained within the exports-growth relationship in South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2014
- Authors: Feddersen, Maura
- Date: 2014
- Subjects: Exports -- South Africa Economic development -- South Africa Unemployment -- South Africa Poverty -- South Africa Income distribution -- South Africa Investments -- South Africa Saving and investment -- South Africa South Africa -- Economic conditions South Africa -- Social conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1087 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1012029
- Description: Various studies conclude that accelerated economic growth and development are necessary in South Africa to make a significant contribution towards reducing high levels of unemployment, inequality and poverty. Moreover, in theories of economic growth the export sector is frequently accorded a special role in encouraging faster economic growth, which is often supported by empirical evidence. Nonetheless, a question that remains unresolved is whether higher export growth leads to higher economic growth in South Africa and what particular role exports may play within the overall economic growth process of the country. This study applies Johansen’s cointegration procedure, impulse response functions, variance decomposition analysis and Granger causality tests to shed light on the channels through which export growth may impact South Africa’s economic growth rate. Quarterly time series data ranging from 1975q1 to 2012q4 is employed in the study’s empirical tests. The empirical results lend support to the idea that the role of exports in the economic growth process fundamentally lies in their ability to encourage investment and capital formation. While export growth supports higher economic growth in the short-run, it does not have the same effect in the long-run. Nonetheless, with export growth supporting faster capital formation in South Africa, and capital formation, in turn, significantly increasing economic growth in the long-run, the impetus to growth stemming from exports has been found to lie in the channel to capital formation. On the basis of the empirical results, not only are exports a critical requirement of higher investment, but they are also anticipated to play a prominent role in lifting the balance of payments constraint that would make investment-led growth possible in the first place. Overall, a strategy of export-led growth that does not explicitly emphasise the export-capital-growth connection is likely to fall short of reflecting the dynamics contained within the exports-growth relationship in South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2014
Ideas and power: shaping monetary policy in South Africa 1919-1936
- Authors: Bordiss, Bradley John
- Date: 2014
- Subjects: Monetary policy -- South Africa -- 1919-1936 Economic development -- South Africa -- 1919-1936 Economics -- South Africa -- History Economics -- Philosophy South Africa -- Economic policy -- 1919-1936 South Africa -- Foreign economic relations -- 1919-1936 Great Britain -- Foreign economic relations -- 1919-1936 Great Britain -- Economic policy -- 1918-1945
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1084 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1011605
- Description: In the concluding paragraphs of Keynes’ General Theory, Keynes suggests that vested interests (power) may dominate in the short term, but that “sooner or later, it is ideas, not vested interests, which are dangerous for good or evil” (Keynes; 1936:384). This dissertation seeks to establish whether this is so, and to what extent, in the period 1919 to 1936, insofar as the shaping of monetary policy was concerned. The context that South Africa found itself in at the time was one in which Britain, the colonising power, was in economic decline. Britain’s real economy had lost its lead in the world in the late 1800s, and by our period, 1919 – 1936, she was now struggling to maintain her dominance of the world’s financial economy. South African gold flows to London, and a South African monetary policy supportive of British monetary policy, became more important than ever to Britain. On the back of its ascendant real economy, the United States of America was fast developing its financial sector as a rival to that centered on London. In the broader monetary policy world, the orthodox monetary regime of the Gold Standard, which had worked so well in the period from 1875 to 1914, was firstly difficult to reestablish, and once established, difficult to maintain. Opinion on what should be done was divided between the majority who favoured a return to the orthodoxy, and a much smaller group, including John Maynard Keynes, who argued that the Gold Standard should no longer be the preferred monetary system. In South Africa, our period starts 17 years after the Second Boer War. Afrikaner nationalists intent on establishing independence from Britain, competed with those, including Jan Christiaan Smuts, who believed that tying our policy up with that of the British Empire was the best for South Africa. It is in this context that a naturalised Briton, which the research shows was a loyal servant of the London power elite, was appointed by the Empire-friendly Smuts government to advise the South African government on monetary policy, the setting up of the South African Reserve Bank, the appointment of its first Governor and other matters in the period up until the fall of this government in 1924. It is also in this context that an American ‘Currency Doctor’ and Professor of Economics at Princeton University, which the research shows was intimately connected with the American government and Benjamin Strong at the Federal Reserve, was appointed by the Pact government later in 1924, and who was anxious to throw off the yoke of British control. The theoretical paradigm of this study is that developed by John Maynard Keynes and after him by the post-Keynesian economists, particularly Basil Moore and Hyman P. Minsky. Instead of considering the theory chronologically, book by book, the theory section deals with the subject matter in the themes which came up in the monetary policy debates of the time, looking at all the theoretical literature that applied to these various themes. Aside from the correction of errors of emphasis and errors of fact dealt with in chapter two, chapter five of the dissertation is where most of the original research is reflected. This is the section which deals in depth with the experts that advised the South Africans at the time, how they came to be appointed, whose interests they served, what theories they used in support of their positions, and what was the decision-making process; from their appointment, until their reports were drafted into the law of the Union of South Africa. While Ally’s work (1994) is accepted as the principal work on the influence of the Bank of England, and Britain’s control of South African gold on South African gold and monetary policy, this dissertation claims legitimacy based on a much closer look at the motives and vested interests of the experts advising the South African government at the time. By the end of this chapter, I believe we are better placed to understand and analyse the relative influence of ideas and power on monetary policy in the period 1919 – 1936.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2014
- Authors: Bordiss, Bradley John
- Date: 2014
- Subjects: Monetary policy -- South Africa -- 1919-1936 Economic development -- South Africa -- 1919-1936 Economics -- South Africa -- History Economics -- Philosophy South Africa -- Economic policy -- 1919-1936 South Africa -- Foreign economic relations -- 1919-1936 Great Britain -- Foreign economic relations -- 1919-1936 Great Britain -- Economic policy -- 1918-1945
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1084 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1011605
- Description: In the concluding paragraphs of Keynes’ General Theory, Keynes suggests that vested interests (power) may dominate in the short term, but that “sooner or later, it is ideas, not vested interests, which are dangerous for good or evil” (Keynes; 1936:384). This dissertation seeks to establish whether this is so, and to what extent, in the period 1919 to 1936, insofar as the shaping of monetary policy was concerned. The context that South Africa found itself in at the time was one in which Britain, the colonising power, was in economic decline. Britain’s real economy had lost its lead in the world in the late 1800s, and by our period, 1919 – 1936, she was now struggling to maintain her dominance of the world’s financial economy. South African gold flows to London, and a South African monetary policy supportive of British monetary policy, became more important than ever to Britain. On the back of its ascendant real economy, the United States of America was fast developing its financial sector as a rival to that centered on London. In the broader monetary policy world, the orthodox monetary regime of the Gold Standard, which had worked so well in the period from 1875 to 1914, was firstly difficult to reestablish, and once established, difficult to maintain. Opinion on what should be done was divided between the majority who favoured a return to the orthodoxy, and a much smaller group, including John Maynard Keynes, who argued that the Gold Standard should no longer be the preferred monetary system. In South Africa, our period starts 17 years after the Second Boer War. Afrikaner nationalists intent on establishing independence from Britain, competed with those, including Jan Christiaan Smuts, who believed that tying our policy up with that of the British Empire was the best for South Africa. It is in this context that a naturalised Briton, which the research shows was a loyal servant of the London power elite, was appointed by the Empire-friendly Smuts government to advise the South African government on monetary policy, the setting up of the South African Reserve Bank, the appointment of its first Governor and other matters in the period up until the fall of this government in 1924. It is also in this context that an American ‘Currency Doctor’ and Professor of Economics at Princeton University, which the research shows was intimately connected with the American government and Benjamin Strong at the Federal Reserve, was appointed by the Pact government later in 1924, and who was anxious to throw off the yoke of British control. The theoretical paradigm of this study is that developed by John Maynard Keynes and after him by the post-Keynesian economists, particularly Basil Moore and Hyman P. Minsky. Instead of considering the theory chronologically, book by book, the theory section deals with the subject matter in the themes which came up in the monetary policy debates of the time, looking at all the theoretical literature that applied to these various themes. Aside from the correction of errors of emphasis and errors of fact dealt with in chapter two, chapter five of the dissertation is where most of the original research is reflected. This is the section which deals in depth with the experts that advised the South Africans at the time, how they came to be appointed, whose interests they served, what theories they used in support of their positions, and what was the decision-making process; from their appointment, until their reports were drafted into the law of the Union of South Africa. While Ally’s work (1994) is accepted as the principal work on the influence of the Bank of England, and Britain’s control of South African gold on South African gold and monetary policy, this dissertation claims legitimacy based on a much closer look at the motives and vested interests of the experts advising the South African government at the time. By the end of this chapter, I believe we are better placed to understand and analyse the relative influence of ideas and power on monetary policy in the period 1919 – 1936.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2014
Is economic growth without human development sustainable? : Sub-Saharan Africa’s recent growth acceleration in context
- Authors: Hadisi Basingene, Serge
- Date: 2014
- Subjects: Sustainable development -- Africa, Sub-Saharan , Economic development -- Africa, Sub-Saharan , Poverty -- Africa, Sub-Saharan , Africa, Sub-Saharan -- Social conditions , Africa, Sub-Saharan -- Economic conditions , Africa, Sub-Saharan -- Economic policy
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MEcon
- Identifier: vital:1098 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1013137
- Description: The purpose of the study has been to assess the question of sustainability of economic growth and human development, particularly using sub-Saharan Africa in context. Sub-Saharan Africa is an interesting case study because, on the one hand, it has been mired in poverty and remains the least developed region in the world, and on the other, it has experienced a revival in economic growth since the mid-1990s. Economists tend to use the term economic development and economic growth interchangeably. However, questions have been raised about whether Africa’s latest growth episode is indeed ‘development’. Although there are many issues at stake, the key question, and the focus of this thesis, is whether sub-Saharan Africa’s revival is sustainable. The paper sets out the debate between the ‘World Bank view’ and the ‘alternative view’. The main debate lies around how genuine development should be achieved. Firstly, the ‘World Bank view’ claims that economic growth is necessary and sufficient condition to achieve development. Economic growth will be generated by ‘orthodox’ policies and this growth will automatically trickle-down and stimulate development. Secondly, the ‘alternative view’ argues that economic growth is necessary but it is not sufficient to stimulate sustainable development. Economic growth without ‘qualitative’ change is not ‘sustainable’. Indeed, human development shortfalls (as well as other, social, political and structural problems), if not addressed through appropriate policy interventions, can undermine economic growth. The ‘alternative view’ appears to be strongly supported by evidence from other developing regions such as Latin America and East Asia. The empirical study conducted in this thesis reinforces doubts about ‘sustainability’. Even though there are signs of convergence in some indicators; this is not the case for all indicators. More importantly the gap between sub-Saharan Africa and other developing regions remains very wide. Sub-Saharan Africa’s development path remains uncertain. The intention in this study is not to be conclusive that sub-Saharan Africa cannot achieve sustainable development. Rather the study attempts to identify potential hindrances to sub-Saharan Africa’s development and to provide a solid foundation for further research in the same direction.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2014
- Authors: Hadisi Basingene, Serge
- Date: 2014
- Subjects: Sustainable development -- Africa, Sub-Saharan , Economic development -- Africa, Sub-Saharan , Poverty -- Africa, Sub-Saharan , Africa, Sub-Saharan -- Social conditions , Africa, Sub-Saharan -- Economic conditions , Africa, Sub-Saharan -- Economic policy
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MEcon
- Identifier: vital:1098 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1013137
- Description: The purpose of the study has been to assess the question of sustainability of economic growth and human development, particularly using sub-Saharan Africa in context. Sub-Saharan Africa is an interesting case study because, on the one hand, it has been mired in poverty and remains the least developed region in the world, and on the other, it has experienced a revival in economic growth since the mid-1990s. Economists tend to use the term economic development and economic growth interchangeably. However, questions have been raised about whether Africa’s latest growth episode is indeed ‘development’. Although there are many issues at stake, the key question, and the focus of this thesis, is whether sub-Saharan Africa’s revival is sustainable. The paper sets out the debate between the ‘World Bank view’ and the ‘alternative view’. The main debate lies around how genuine development should be achieved. Firstly, the ‘World Bank view’ claims that economic growth is necessary and sufficient condition to achieve development. Economic growth will be generated by ‘orthodox’ policies and this growth will automatically trickle-down and stimulate development. Secondly, the ‘alternative view’ argues that economic growth is necessary but it is not sufficient to stimulate sustainable development. Economic growth without ‘qualitative’ change is not ‘sustainable’. Indeed, human development shortfalls (as well as other, social, political and structural problems), if not addressed through appropriate policy interventions, can undermine economic growth. The ‘alternative view’ appears to be strongly supported by evidence from other developing regions such as Latin America and East Asia. The empirical study conducted in this thesis reinforces doubts about ‘sustainability’. Even though there are signs of convergence in some indicators; this is not the case for all indicators. More importantly the gap between sub-Saharan Africa and other developing regions remains very wide. Sub-Saharan Africa’s development path remains uncertain. The intention in this study is not to be conclusive that sub-Saharan Africa cannot achieve sustainable development. Rather the study attempts to identify potential hindrances to sub-Saharan Africa’s development and to provide a solid foundation for further research in the same direction.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2014
Platinum share prices and the Marikana tragedy: an event study
- Authors: Sunga, Tapuwa Terence
- Date: 2014
- Subjects: Marikana (Rustenburg, South Africa) , Massacres -- South Africa -- Rustenburg , Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa , Stocks -- Prices -- Mathematical models
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1094 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1013002
- Description: An event study is an economic tool of analysis that has begun to gain popularity in recent empirical literature. It is a technique that gives a researcher the opportunity to map out the reaction of a firm's stock to an event, usually making use of daily or monthly data. However, up to this point, event study methodology has generally been applied to more traditional phenomena capable of affecting equity value, such as dividend and macroeconomic policy announcements, and there have only been a few exceptions to this. This study looks at what impact the tragic shootings at Lonmin mine in Marikana on August 16th 2012 had on the share prices of platinum mining firms based in South Africa using event study methodology. It makes use of the technique to investigate how the share prices responded to the tragedy over a number of trading days, including the day of the shootings. To be best of our knowledge, no attempt has been made to analyse the impact on share prices using events of this nature. For the investigation, daily returns data was used for each firm. The abnormal returns and cumulative abnormal returns to each were then calculated and compared with their respective expected returns in order to determine whether investors in the shares of that particular firm reacted positively, negatively or not at all. The evidence found suggests that tragedies of this nature are capable of influencing share prices in the same manner as more traditional economic phenomena. Overall, only one firm was found to have been negatively affected by the shootings in a persistent manner, while the shares of the other firms examined reacted in a manner that was positive overall, but varied according to individual firm characteristics such as size. These finding conformed to our a priori expectations. In addition, the results also confirm the benefits of applying event study methodology to a wide variety of phenomena that fall outside the boundaries usually associated with business.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2014
- Authors: Sunga, Tapuwa Terence
- Date: 2014
- Subjects: Marikana (Rustenburg, South Africa) , Massacres -- South Africa -- Rustenburg , Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa , Stocks -- Prices -- Mathematical models
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1094 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1013002
- Description: An event study is an economic tool of analysis that has begun to gain popularity in recent empirical literature. It is a technique that gives a researcher the opportunity to map out the reaction of a firm's stock to an event, usually making use of daily or monthly data. However, up to this point, event study methodology has generally been applied to more traditional phenomena capable of affecting equity value, such as dividend and macroeconomic policy announcements, and there have only been a few exceptions to this. This study looks at what impact the tragic shootings at Lonmin mine in Marikana on August 16th 2012 had on the share prices of platinum mining firms based in South Africa using event study methodology. It makes use of the technique to investigate how the share prices responded to the tragedy over a number of trading days, including the day of the shootings. To be best of our knowledge, no attempt has been made to analyse the impact on share prices using events of this nature. For the investigation, daily returns data was used for each firm. The abnormal returns and cumulative abnormal returns to each were then calculated and compared with their respective expected returns in order to determine whether investors in the shares of that particular firm reacted positively, negatively or not at all. The evidence found suggests that tragedies of this nature are capable of influencing share prices in the same manner as more traditional economic phenomena. Overall, only one firm was found to have been negatively affected by the shootings in a persistent manner, while the shares of the other firms examined reacted in a manner that was positive overall, but varied according to individual firm characteristics such as size. These finding conformed to our a priori expectations. In addition, the results also confirm the benefits of applying event study methodology to a wide variety of phenomena that fall outside the boundaries usually associated with business.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2014
Reviewing the definition of the natural resource curse and analysing its occurence post-1990
- Authors: Mwansa, Mumamba Chitumwa
- Date: 2014
- Subjects: Resource curse , Natural resources -- Management , Economic development , National income
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1100 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1013243
- Description: That countries with high natural resource abundance should experience slower economic growth than those with low resource abundance seems contrary to what would be expected, considering the developmental head-start such resources afford. Yet Sachs and Warner (1997) found that economies with a high share of natural resource exports in national income in 1970 tended to experience slower economic growth in the two decades that followed. This finding, that natural resources are a “curse” rather than a blessing, has become generally accepted. This thesis sought to test whether the conclusion drawn from their data – that higher natural resource abundance leads to slower economic growth – is still correct. It sought to test their findings first by correcting for their use of resource intensity (natural resources share of exports) as a proxy for abundance. Using measures of resource abundance for 1995 as a proxy for abundance in previous decades, it was found that higher resource abundance was not associated with lower economic growth in the 1970s and 1980s. This finding is contrary to that of Sachs and Warner (1997, 2001). Secondly, this thesis tested whether the natural resource curse effect was still present for the period 1995–2010. This was done by observing the effect of both resource abundance and resource intensity on economic growth during 1995–2010. In both cases no resource curse effect was found, for this more recent period. The resource curse had disappeared regardless of whether one uses Sachs and Warner’s (1997, 2001) measure of resource intensity or a measure of resource abundance. Natural resources should therefore no longer be considered a “curse”. In explaining the difference for the impact of resource intensity between the 1970-90 period measured by Sachs and Warner (1997, 2001) and the more recent period 1995-2010 it was found that the Dutch Disease effect has decreased significantly since the 1970s and 1980s. This could partly explain why the resource curse has disappeared when measured in terms of resource intensity. Thus it was concluded that the natural resource curse existed in the period 1970-90 only when measured in terms of resource intensity but not when measured relative to resource abundance. The negative effects of natural resources on economic growth have disappeared in terms of both resource intensity and resource abundance in the more recent time period.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2014
- Authors: Mwansa, Mumamba Chitumwa
- Date: 2014
- Subjects: Resource curse , Natural resources -- Management , Economic development , National income
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1100 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1013243
- Description: That countries with high natural resource abundance should experience slower economic growth than those with low resource abundance seems contrary to what would be expected, considering the developmental head-start such resources afford. Yet Sachs and Warner (1997) found that economies with a high share of natural resource exports in national income in 1970 tended to experience slower economic growth in the two decades that followed. This finding, that natural resources are a “curse” rather than a blessing, has become generally accepted. This thesis sought to test whether the conclusion drawn from their data – that higher natural resource abundance leads to slower economic growth – is still correct. It sought to test their findings first by correcting for their use of resource intensity (natural resources share of exports) as a proxy for abundance. Using measures of resource abundance for 1995 as a proxy for abundance in previous decades, it was found that higher resource abundance was not associated with lower economic growth in the 1970s and 1980s. This finding is contrary to that of Sachs and Warner (1997, 2001). Secondly, this thesis tested whether the natural resource curse effect was still present for the period 1995–2010. This was done by observing the effect of both resource abundance and resource intensity on economic growth during 1995–2010. In both cases no resource curse effect was found, for this more recent period. The resource curse had disappeared regardless of whether one uses Sachs and Warner’s (1997, 2001) measure of resource intensity or a measure of resource abundance. Natural resources should therefore no longer be considered a “curse”. In explaining the difference for the impact of resource intensity between the 1970-90 period measured by Sachs and Warner (1997, 2001) and the more recent period 1995-2010 it was found that the Dutch Disease effect has decreased significantly since the 1970s and 1980s. This could partly explain why the resource curse has disappeared when measured in terms of resource intensity. Thus it was concluded that the natural resource curse existed in the period 1970-90 only when measured in terms of resource intensity but not when measured relative to resource abundance. The negative effects of natural resources on economic growth have disappeared in terms of both resource intensity and resource abundance in the more recent time period.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2014
Saving and investment in South Africa: a causality study
- Authors: Mngqibisa, Vuyisa
- Date: 2014
- Subjects: Saving and investment -- South Africa Investments -- South Africa Credit -- South Africa Finance, Personal -- South Africa Portfolio management -- South Africa Investment analysis -- South Africa Error analysis (Mathematics)
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1086 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1011887
- Description: This study aims to investigate the relationship between private saving and investment for South Africa using a Vector Error Correction Framework. Saving and investment are considered to be important factors for sustainable economic growth in the country, particularly as these variables have been recorded at significantly lower levels than those of other developing nations. By examining the direction of causality between saving and investment, the most suitable policy measures can be used in stimulating either savings or investment, and as a result aggregate growth. The study found a positive two-way causality to exist between these two variables, proving that both saving and investment-led policies are necessary in raising saving and investment levels. With the inclusion of credit extension as the third variable used to remove any variable bias, the study not only found credit extension to Granger cause private saving, but the reverse relationship was found to be present as well. This relationship was however found to be negative, confirming that lower borrowing constraints may have a negative effect on saving levels. The negative relationship between credit supply and private saving (substitution effect) proves that credit supply will only yield a positive result for savings if channelled through investment expenditure.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2014
- Authors: Mngqibisa, Vuyisa
- Date: 2014
- Subjects: Saving and investment -- South Africa Investments -- South Africa Credit -- South Africa Finance, Personal -- South Africa Portfolio management -- South Africa Investment analysis -- South Africa Error analysis (Mathematics)
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1086 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1011887
- Description: This study aims to investigate the relationship between private saving and investment for South Africa using a Vector Error Correction Framework. Saving and investment are considered to be important factors for sustainable economic growth in the country, particularly as these variables have been recorded at significantly lower levels than those of other developing nations. By examining the direction of causality between saving and investment, the most suitable policy measures can be used in stimulating either savings or investment, and as a result aggregate growth. The study found a positive two-way causality to exist between these two variables, proving that both saving and investment-led policies are necessary in raising saving and investment levels. With the inclusion of credit extension as the third variable used to remove any variable bias, the study not only found credit extension to Granger cause private saving, but the reverse relationship was found to be present as well. This relationship was however found to be negative, confirming that lower borrowing constraints may have a negative effect on saving levels. The negative relationship between credit supply and private saving (substitution effect) proves that credit supply will only yield a positive result for savings if channelled through investment expenditure.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2014
The developmental state, social policy and social compacts: a comparative policy analysis of the South African case
- Authors: Gwaindepi, Abel
- Date: 2014
- Subjects: Economic development -- Political aspects -- South Africa , Income distribution -- South Africa , Democracy -- South Africa , Industrial policy -- Developing countries , South Africa -- Economic conditions , South Africa -- Social conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1101 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1013278
- Description: The history of economic thought is ‘flooded’ with neo-classical accounts despite the fact that neoclassical economics did not occupy history alone. This has caused the discourses on ‘lost alternatives’ to be relegated as the deterministic ‘straight line’ neo-classical historical discourses are elevated. Globally hegemonic neo-classical discourse aided this phenomenon as it served to subordinate any counterhegemonic local discursive processes towards alternatives. This study is premised on the theme of non-neoclassical ‘lost alternatives’ using the post-apartheid South Africa as a case study. Emerging from the apartheid regime, the impetus towards non-neoclassical redistributive policies was strong in South Africa but this did not gain traction as the ANC’s ‘growth through redistribution’ was replaced by globally hegemonic discourse which favoured ‘redistribution through growth’. This thesis postulates the idea of two waves of ‘internal’ discursive formations; capturing the transition to democracy up to 1996 as the first wave and the period from 2005 to about 2009 as the second wave. The developmental state paradigm (DSP) emerged as the central heterodox paradigm with ideas such as industrial policy, welfare, and social dialogue/compacts being main elements. The DSP was expressly chosen in the early 1990s, the first period of strong internal discursive formation, but faded as neo-classical policies, epitomised through GEAR, dominated the policy space. The DSP discourse gained vitality in the second wave of internal discursive formation (2005-2009) and it was associated with the subsequent Zuma’s administration. The study illustrates that the DSP has failed to be fully developed into a practical framework but remained only at rhetorical level with the phrase ‘developmental state’ inserted into government policy documents and documents of ANC as a ruling party. The thesis further illustrates that the DSP fared well ideologically because of its inclination to the ideology of ‘developmentalism’ tended to trump any socialist inclined policies such as a generous welfare regime. The thesis rebuts the notion of the DSP in South Africa which has only been amorphously developed with the phrase ‘developmental state’ becoming a mere buzzword. The thesis argues that the DSP in the 21st century is much more complex and the growing ‘tertiarisation’ of the economy makes the Social Democratic Paradigm SDP’s capability centric approach much more relevant for South Africa. The study goes further to argue that a (SDP) is much more suitable alternative for addressing South African colonial/apartheid legacies and consolidation of democracy.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2014
- Authors: Gwaindepi, Abel
- Date: 2014
- Subjects: Economic development -- Political aspects -- South Africa , Income distribution -- South Africa , Democracy -- South Africa , Industrial policy -- Developing countries , South Africa -- Economic conditions , South Africa -- Social conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1101 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1013278
- Description: The history of economic thought is ‘flooded’ with neo-classical accounts despite the fact that neoclassical economics did not occupy history alone. This has caused the discourses on ‘lost alternatives’ to be relegated as the deterministic ‘straight line’ neo-classical historical discourses are elevated. Globally hegemonic neo-classical discourse aided this phenomenon as it served to subordinate any counterhegemonic local discursive processes towards alternatives. This study is premised on the theme of non-neoclassical ‘lost alternatives’ using the post-apartheid South Africa as a case study. Emerging from the apartheid regime, the impetus towards non-neoclassical redistributive policies was strong in South Africa but this did not gain traction as the ANC’s ‘growth through redistribution’ was replaced by globally hegemonic discourse which favoured ‘redistribution through growth’. This thesis postulates the idea of two waves of ‘internal’ discursive formations; capturing the transition to democracy up to 1996 as the first wave and the period from 2005 to about 2009 as the second wave. The developmental state paradigm (DSP) emerged as the central heterodox paradigm with ideas such as industrial policy, welfare, and social dialogue/compacts being main elements. The DSP was expressly chosen in the early 1990s, the first period of strong internal discursive formation, but faded as neo-classical policies, epitomised through GEAR, dominated the policy space. The DSP discourse gained vitality in the second wave of internal discursive formation (2005-2009) and it was associated with the subsequent Zuma’s administration. The study illustrates that the DSP has failed to be fully developed into a practical framework but remained only at rhetorical level with the phrase ‘developmental state’ inserted into government policy documents and documents of ANC as a ruling party. The thesis further illustrates that the DSP fared well ideologically because of its inclination to the ideology of ‘developmentalism’ tended to trump any socialist inclined policies such as a generous welfare regime. The thesis rebuts the notion of the DSP in South Africa which has only been amorphously developed with the phrase ‘developmental state’ becoming a mere buzzword. The thesis argues that the DSP in the 21st century is much more complex and the growing ‘tertiarisation’ of the economy makes the Social Democratic Paradigm SDP’s capability centric approach much more relevant for South Africa. The study goes further to argue that a (SDP) is much more suitable alternative for addressing South African colonial/apartheid legacies and consolidation of democracy.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2014
Why has South Africa been relatively unsuccessful at attracting inward foreign direct investment since 1994?
- Authors: Fulton, Mark Hugh John
- Date: 2014
- Subjects: Investments, Foreign -- South Africa , Investments, Foreign -- Africa, Southern , Investments, Foreign -- Chile , Investments, Foreign -- Botswana , Economic development -- South Africa , Economic development -- Developing countries , Political corruption -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic policy -- 1994-
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1097 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1013056
- Description: Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flows into South Africa have been very low for several decades, and this research examines the reason(s) why this has been the case since 1994. There is a common belief amongst economists that there is a positive relationship between the amount of FDI received and economic growth, thus the desire to attract greater FDI inflows. A literature review was conducted to establish the determinants of FDI globally and then data were collected and assessed to test which causes are most important. The performance of developing nations in attracting FDI was first compared with that of the developed nations. Thereafter, a regional breakdown of FDI flows was presented, with a particular focus on the Southern African region. FDI inflows to South Africa since 1994 were compared against the identified determinants of FDI, as well as with FDI inflows into two other major mining economies, Chile and Botswana. The friendliness of the government towards business was identified as a significant determinant of FDI inflows and the importance of this factor in explaining FDI inflows into environment in South Africa was looked at in more depth. It was found that many investors perceive the South African government as hostile towards business and as corrupt and/or inefficient. The empirical results show that this negative perception helps explain the FDI inflows attracted by South Africa since 1994. Therefore, increased friendliness to business by the government should increase future inward FDI flows into South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2014
- Authors: Fulton, Mark Hugh John
- Date: 2014
- Subjects: Investments, Foreign -- South Africa , Investments, Foreign -- Africa, Southern , Investments, Foreign -- Chile , Investments, Foreign -- Botswana , Economic development -- South Africa , Economic development -- Developing countries , Political corruption -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic policy -- 1994-
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1097 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1013056
- Description: Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flows into South Africa have been very low for several decades, and this research examines the reason(s) why this has been the case since 1994. There is a common belief amongst economists that there is a positive relationship between the amount of FDI received and economic growth, thus the desire to attract greater FDI inflows. A literature review was conducted to establish the determinants of FDI globally and then data were collected and assessed to test which causes are most important. The performance of developing nations in attracting FDI was first compared with that of the developed nations. Thereafter, a regional breakdown of FDI flows was presented, with a particular focus on the Southern African region. FDI inflows to South Africa since 1994 were compared against the identified determinants of FDI, as well as with FDI inflows into two other major mining economies, Chile and Botswana. The friendliness of the government towards business was identified as a significant determinant of FDI inflows and the importance of this factor in explaining FDI inflows into environment in South Africa was looked at in more depth. It was found that many investors perceive the South African government as hostile towards business and as corrupt and/or inefficient. The empirical results show that this negative perception helps explain the FDI inflows attracted by South Africa since 1994. Therefore, increased friendliness to business by the government should increase future inward FDI flows into South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2014
Willingness to pay for marine-based tourism within the Ponto do Ouro Partial Marine Reserve, Mozambique
- Authors: Daly, Clare Amelie Keating
- Date: 2014
- Subjects: Ponto do Ouro Partial Marine Reserve , Marine ecotourism -- Mozambique , Marine ecotourism -- Economic aspects -- Mozambique , Marine ecotourism -- Mozambique -- Marketing , Ecotourism -- Economic aspects -- Mozambique , Coastal zone management -- Mozambique , Marine resources conservation -- Mozambique
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1102 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1013304
- Description: Marine and coastal ecosystems face widespread degradation largely because market failure hides the economic value of the goods and services provided by them. Marine protected areas (MPAs) can serve as a structure that ensures the continuing function of marine and coastal ecosystem goods and services. Yet, to be effective and sustainable, MPAs must be able to prove their economic worth and generate revenue. User-fees are a common system used to partially finance multi-use MPAs. This study applies contingent valuation as a method of economic valuation within an MPA in southern Mozambique. The objectives of this study are to determine the willingness to pay of combined user groups and of individual user groups for use of the Ponta do Ouro Partial Marine Reserve and to investigate the potential for the reserve to increase revenues for conservation through the implementation of a user-fee for marine based activities. The payment card contingent valuation method was employed to determine willingness to pay of dolphin swim tourists, scuba divers and fishermen. Data was collected by face-to-face interviews of 120 respondents within two popular tourist locations in the PPMR. Results show that visitors within the PPMR are mainly South Africans, loyal to the area. Probit and OLS regressions were used to determine the effects of various independent variables on willingness to pay. Results from the Probit model indicate that African residency, activity and environmental awareness were significant factors that influenced visitors being WTP more than R20 per person per day as a user fee within the PPMR. The OLS model examined independent variables that influenced visitors being willing to pay as well as the impact of the variables on the amount visitors were willing to pay. The OLS model found income, African residency and environmental awareness to be significant factors influencing visitors being willing to pay. The mean WTP was R43.75 per person per day. Using data supplied by the PPMR, conservative estimated annual revenues based on the implementation of this fee amount would range between R1.46m – R 3.3m.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2014
- Authors: Daly, Clare Amelie Keating
- Date: 2014
- Subjects: Ponto do Ouro Partial Marine Reserve , Marine ecotourism -- Mozambique , Marine ecotourism -- Economic aspects -- Mozambique , Marine ecotourism -- Mozambique -- Marketing , Ecotourism -- Economic aspects -- Mozambique , Coastal zone management -- Mozambique , Marine resources conservation -- Mozambique
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1102 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1013304
- Description: Marine and coastal ecosystems face widespread degradation largely because market failure hides the economic value of the goods and services provided by them. Marine protected areas (MPAs) can serve as a structure that ensures the continuing function of marine and coastal ecosystem goods and services. Yet, to be effective and sustainable, MPAs must be able to prove their economic worth and generate revenue. User-fees are a common system used to partially finance multi-use MPAs. This study applies contingent valuation as a method of economic valuation within an MPA in southern Mozambique. The objectives of this study are to determine the willingness to pay of combined user groups and of individual user groups for use of the Ponta do Ouro Partial Marine Reserve and to investigate the potential for the reserve to increase revenues for conservation through the implementation of a user-fee for marine based activities. The payment card contingent valuation method was employed to determine willingness to pay of dolphin swim tourists, scuba divers and fishermen. Data was collected by face-to-face interviews of 120 respondents within two popular tourist locations in the PPMR. Results show that visitors within the PPMR are mainly South Africans, loyal to the area. Probit and OLS regressions were used to determine the effects of various independent variables on willingness to pay. Results from the Probit model indicate that African residency, activity and environmental awareness were significant factors that influenced visitors being WTP more than R20 per person per day as a user fee within the PPMR. The OLS model examined independent variables that influenced visitors being willing to pay as well as the impact of the variables on the amount visitors were willing to pay. The OLS model found income, African residency and environmental awareness to be significant factors influencing visitors being willing to pay. The mean WTP was R43.75 per person per day. Using data supplied by the PPMR, conservative estimated annual revenues based on the implementation of this fee amount would range between R1.46m – R 3.3m.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2014
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